Gold comes under pressure International and domestic gold prices recorded a sharp decline in June. The international price 2 fell by more than 11% to around US$4,000/oz, its lowest level since October, while domestic price 3 declined by around 10% to near INR141,000/10g, a six-month low. Although prices have recovered marginally since then, international gold price remains nearly 7% lower on a year-to-date basis. In contrast, domestic price is up around 6% y-t-d, supported by the 9% import duty hike in May and the INR depreciation against the US dollar. A stronger US dollar, intensifying expectations of US rate hikes, and a rotation towards equities in Western markets have weighed on gold prices. At the same time, the pullback in prices has provided a buying opportunity to those waiting to enter the market, cushioning the decline in prices. Chart 1: Gold weakens Month-end LBMA Price PM and MCX spot gold price changes and movement* *As of 14 July 2026. Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council Ample supply keeps domestic prices at a discount Gold price discounts in the domestic market have narrowed considerably from the elevated levels following the import duty hike in May and early June, indicating a gradual normalisation of market conditions. Discounts averaged around US$20/oz to the landed price 4 during the first two weeks of July, significantly lower than the peak discount of nearly US$150/oz recorded in May. Domestic prices briefly traded close to parity with the landed price in late June and early July, indicating an improving market balance. Discounts have widened since to US$40/oz as of mid-July. The prevailing level of discount reflects the availability of ample domestic supply relative to demand. Industry interactions indicate that the rise in old gold exchange for new jewellery has increased the supply of gold in the market. Chart 2: Discounts recede NCDEX gold premium/discount relative to the official domestic price* *As of 14 July 2026. Source: NCDEX, World Gold Council Jewellery buying gains traction Following a month-long lull from mid-May to mid-June, driven by seasonally softer demand, an inauspicious period, 5 policy measures and the Prime Minister’s appeal to limit gold purchases , consumer demand has reportedly begun to recover. Industry feedback suggests that while overall demand remains subdued, consumer buying has picked up in recent weeks, led primarily by jewellery. In contrast, bar and coin demand appears to have cooled. The pullback in gold prices and the relative price stability are said to be stimulating jewellery purchases. The promotional campaign by retailers, including discounts, exchange offers, flexible payment terms, etc., have also been supporting sales. Notably, demand has not been limited to wedding-related purchases. Manufacturers too have been receiving order bookings from retailers in preparation for the festive season from August. At the same time, softer prices have tempered demand for bars and coins, which are typically bought for investment purposes and tend to attract stronger interest during periods of rising prices. Meanwhile, the exchange of old gold jewellery has gained further traction following the import duty hike in mid-May. Retailers report that exchange volumes have risen by a further 10–20%, with some indicating that old gold exchanges now account for as much as 70% of jewellery sales. Healthy performance of listed jewellers in April–June quarter Major listed jewellery retailers 6 reported a strong April–June quarter despite an inauspicious period that typically tempers purchases. Revenue growth was broadly in the high 30–60% y/y range, supported by regional festivals, the summer wedding season and Akshay Tritiya 7 during the early part of the quarter. Demand was broad, with plain gold and studded jewellery registering double-digit sales growth. Retailers also reported growth both in customer additions and average ticket sizes. Old gold exchange for new jewellery continued to rise on average accounting for somewhere between 43–55% of sales during the quarter, aided in part by promotional and marketing campaigns. These retailers continued with their store expansions, adding between 8 and 33 stores across the country during the quarter. The continued pace of store openings can be seen as reflecting industry confidence in the medium-term outlook for jewellery demand. Price pullback drives ETF inflows Indian gold ETFs recorded a rebound in June, in contrast to the global trend of outflows , as investors bought into the price dips. Net inflows during the month were INR34.4bn (US$356mn), the highest since February. Holdings increased by 2.2t to 119t, in line with our estimates, while the cumulative AUM fell 8% m/m, reflecting the decline in gold prices during the month. The price pullback appears to have been viewed as a buying opportunity by investors, with inflows remaining healthy in early July. During 1–10 July, net inflows are estimated at INR12.1bn (US$127mn). Investor participation also broadened, with 135k new folios (accounts) being added during the month, taking the total number of accounts to 12.5mn. Chart 3: Gold ETF flows rebound Gold ETF flows in INRbn, and total holdings in tonnes* *As of end June 2026. Source: AMFI, ICRA Analytics, CMIE, World Gold Council Increased buying of digital gold Digital gold purchases through the Unified Payment Interface (UPI) rebounded in June after moderation in the previous month. Both transaction value and estimated volumes reached a three-month high, pointing to renewed investor interest. Transaction value rose 4% m/m to INR25.5bn (US$269mn), while volumes are estimated to have increased 9% m/m to 1.7t. Purchases during the month were above the 17-month average of 1.4t and remained within the higher-transacting category of UPI, suggesting that demand in the digital gold segment continues to be resilient. Chart 4: Resilient demand in digital gold Purchase of digital gold, by value and estimated volume Source: NPCI, World Gold Council Imports ease amid soft demand and recycled supply Gold imports weakened further in June, declining for a second consecutive month. At US$1.97bn, imports were down 42% m/m and the lowest since June 2025. However, import value was 7% higher y/y, driven largely by higher gold prices, with the average landed cost of gold rising 38% from a year ago. 8 Import volumes in June are estimated at 16–22t, down from 29t in May and 25t in June 2025. The decline in import volumes is reflective of softer demand, elevated inventories in the supply chain, and supply from the exchange and sale of old gold. Old gold supply has risen since the import duty hike, lowering the need for fresh imports. Consequently, gold’s share of total merchandise imports fell to 3% in June, well below the 17% recorded in January. Chart 5: Gold imports hit one-year low Monthly gold imports in tonnes and US$bn* *Includes World Gold Council estimates. Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, CMIE, World Gold Council Footnotes 1 LBMA Gold Price and MCX Spot Gold Price as of 14 July 2026. 2 LBMA Gold Price PM. 3 MCX Spot Gold Price. 4 Landed price is the international price (LBMA Gold Price AM) adjusted for import tax. 5 Adhik Maas from 17 May to 15 June 2026. 6 Titan Company Ltd, Kalyan Jewellers India Ltd , Senco Gold Ltd , PN Gadgil Jewellers Limited 7 Akshay Tritiya (19-20 April) is traditionally regarded as an auspicious and key demand period for gold. 8 Landed cost is the international price (LBMA Gold Price AM) adjusted for import taxes. Source： https://www.gold.org/goldhub/gold-focus/2026/07/india-gold-market-update-mixed-demand-signals

SMM July 17 news: As of July 16, secondary lead finished product inventories stood at 21,300 mt, down about 300 mt WoW. Lead prices fell first and then rose this week, with downstream buying sentiment improving mid-week; combined with low production operation on the supply side, enterprise in-factory inventory growth was limited. Looking into next week, some enterprises in North China intend to halt production, and the supply side is expected to tighten, keeping finished product inventories stable to lower.

This week, the ferrous metals sector rebounded slightly overall, with divergence among products: iron ore and hot-rolled coil/rebar performed relatively strong, while coke was relatively weak. Early in the week, affected by sluggish end-use consumption in the off-season and continued pressure on steel mill profits, futures for all products consolidated and weakened; mid-week, driven by the combined effects of rumors of a BHP worker strike, the repeated US-Iran geopolitical conflicts, and rising expectations of environmental protection-driven production restrictions in Tangshan, iron ore and hot-rolled coil/rebar spot and futures prices saw a period of stabilization and rebound. However, from a fundamental perspective, the off-season characteristics on the demand side remained......

SMM Analysis: Since late June, copper premiums cif China have been climbing. Spot premiums for registered copper arriving at China's ports from late July to August have recently breached triple digits, continuously setting new yearly highs...

Next week, key macroeconomic data will include US June housing starts, building permits, industrial production, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, which will influence market expectations for the Fed's rate path. Meanwhile, the ongoing Middle East geopolitical conflict continues to escalate, with shipping volume through the Strait of Hormuz falling to about one-tenth of pre-war levels. Geopolitical risks have pushed oil prices higher, raising supply-chain cost expectations. LME lead, within the week LME lead inventory surged by 160,000 mt, sparking risk-off sentiment and driving LME lead to its lowest level in over a year. As lead prices fell, the LME lead Cash-3M spread remained in a deep contango, with the latest quote at -$43.83/mt. Moreover, heightened uncertainty over the Middle East conflict, along with rising energy and shipping costs, may become another factor affecting lead prices. Once the inventory buildup news is digested by the market, lead prices are expected to get a breather. Next week, LME lead is expected to trade at $1,850-1,905/mt. SHFE lead, visible lead ingot inventories first increased then declined this week due to delivery factors and downstream purchasing. After the bearish news of overseas inventory buildup ran its course, market attention in China shifted to the production dynamics of secondary lead enterprises and downstream purchasing trends. If lead ingot inventories continue to destock, lead prices are expected to return to 16,000 yuan/mt. The most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade at 15,600-16,150 yuan/mt next week. Spot lead price forecast: 15,650-15,950 yuan/mt. Consumption side, the lead-acid battery market remains in the off-season, with downstream enterprises continuing to purchase as needed. However, as lead ingots re-enter the circulation market after delivery, downstream cargo pick-up is expected to increase. Supply side, secondary lead enterprises maintain low operating rates, with limited supply circulating in the market, while primary lead supply is relatively ample. The spot market is expected to continue trading at a discount.

Spot Market: SMM #1 lead price showed a dip-then-rebound trend this week (Jul 13-17, 2026), with the weekly average price down 220 yuan/mt WoW. During the week, LME lead inventories outside China surged, dragging down domestic lead prices. After the price decline, upstream and downstream enterprises performed differently. On the primary lead side, although some smelters held back from selling at low prices, most suppliers sold along with the market, with mainstream production area quotations at discounts of 25-0 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead price. In the second half of the week, as lead prices rebounded, quotations in some regions widened to discounts of 80-60 yuan/mt ex-works. For secondary refined lead, smelters' losses widened, and shipments declined WoW. Secondary refined lead quotations were at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, and after lead prices rebounded, they shifted to discounts of 50-0 yuan/mt ex-works. Facing the price decline, downstream enterprises initially showed strong risk-off sentiment, stayed on the sidelines with limited purchases, and then gradually engaged in dip-buying, leading to regional improvements in spot market transactions.