Nickel Ore " Sluggish RKAB Approvals Drive Potential for Ore Price Hikes" Indonesian domestic nickel ore prices have risen significantly increase this week. For the first half of March, the Indonesian Nickel Ore Benchmark Price (HPM) was set at $17.329/dmt, an increase of 1.32%. However, according to SMM data, average premiums has increased for 1.4%, 1.5%, and 1.6% grade laterite nickel ore were reported at $35, $39, and $39.5/wmt, respectively, with 1.6% grade reaching a delivered price of $65.6–$74.6/wmt. This strengthening of premiums reflects both the release of restocking demand from smelters and pessimistic expectations regarding RKAB quota reductions. Simultaneously, the delivery price for 1.2% grade limonite has edged up to $24–$26/wmt. Pyrometallurgical Ore: From a supply and demand perspective, Sulawesi is transitioning into the dry season; Konawe has reached optimal production levels, while Morowali is recovering from previous floods. However, Halmahera continues to be hampered by thunderstorms, resulting in high moisture content and dragging down mining efficiency. The market is facing a clear trend of declining ore grades. While some NPI smelters have begun accepting grades of 1.45% or lower, the supply of high-grade saprolite remains tight. As of mid-March, the ESDM has approved approximately 100 million tons of RKAB quotas. The remaining 160 to 170 million tons are expected to be processed by the end of March. However, due to the Eid al-Fitr (Lebaran) holidays (March 18–24), approval progress is expected to lag, exacerbating short-term supply tightness. Faced with resource uncertainty, some smelters have increased trade bonuses to secure raw materials. Transactions for low-grade saprolite are emerging at fixed prices lower than high-grade ores. Conversely, Limonite prices remain low due to a tailings dam landslide at a major MHP project, which has forced production lines to operate at low loads, hindering demand recovery. However, Limonite prices are expected to eventually follow Saprolite upward due to new project stockpiling and external island demand. Hydrometallurgical Ore Although the spot supply of hydrometallurgical ore is relatively sufficient, a tailings dam landslide at an MHP project in a certain industrial park has forced related production lines to operate at low loads, leading to a temporary weakness in demand. However, given the concerns over RKAB approval uncertainty, the stockpiling needs of newly commissioned projects, and the growing demand from outer islands, hydrometallurgical ore prices are expected to follow the trend of pyrometallurgical ore and remain elevated. On March 3, 2026, Tri Winarno, Director General of Mineral and Coal, clarified that rumors of a "25%–30% universal increase in RKAB quotas" are false. Quota supplements will be based on individualized assessments of production capacity and compliance, with the approval process not expected to start until the second half of 2026. Market Outlook: Due to the overall delay in RKAB approvals, nickel ore prices in April are expected to remain resilient with a strong "easy to rise, hard to fall" trend. Nickel Pig Iron "NPI Prices See Periodic Retracement as Tug-of-War Intensifies Between Cost Support and Downstream Pressure​​​​​​​" The average price of SMM 10-12% NPI average price rose by RMB 0.3 per nickel unit week-on-week to RMB 1090.2 per nickel unit (ex-works, tax included), while the Indonesia NPI FOB index decreased by USD 0.65 per nickel unit to an average of USD 138.28 per nickel unit. This week, following consecutive price drops in stainless steel finished products and LME/SHFE nickel, the High-Grade NPI market experienced panic selling and low-price liquidation, entering a phase of periodic decline. From the supply side, With ore prices remaining elevated, smelter production costs continue to rise. However, triggered by the sharp decline in futures markets, some traders began offloading arbitrage stocks at low prices, leading to a general softening of upstream quotes.From the demand side, Weighed down by falling stainless steel prices and the influx of low-priced spot goods, most steel mills have lowered their bid intentions, exerting downward pressure on NPI prices. Overall, while cost support for smelters remains, downstream suppression is evident. The combination of futures-driven market sentiment and loosening upstream quotes has led to a periodic retracement in High-Grade NPI Overall outlook, market transactions will remain under pressure in the short term as the cost-tug-of-war between upstream and downstream continues. However, the downward room for NPI prices is expected to be limited.

This week, prices of 304 stainless steel scrap off-cuts in east China strengthened to 10,000-10,100 yuan/mt; prices of stainless steel scrap off-cuts of the same specification in Foshan also rose, with the price range at 9,600-9,900 yuan/mt. In terms of raw material production costs, the current cost of producing stainless steel entirely from stainless steel scrap was about 14,098.03 yuan/mt, while the cost of production using only high-grade NPI was 14,786.98 yuan/mt. This week, stainless steel scrap prices fell back, mainly driven by macro sentiment disruptions, weak futures, and pressure on both supply and demand. Escalating geopolitical conflicts, coupled with hawkish remarks from the US Fed, dragged SS futures into the doldrums overall, with the bearish impact directly transmitted to the spot market. Stainless steel finished product prices also pulled back across the board, and market pessimism gradually spread. Prices of substitute raw materials also pulled back, while stainless steel mills showed a strong inclination to push for lower prices. NPI traders turned weaker in sentiment and sold at low prices, and the high-grade NPI market also softened. In addition, Tsingshan's April tender price for high-carbon ferrochrome was set low, not only below previous market expectations but also lower than current retail quotations, limiting room for ferrochrome prices to rise and eliminating the support from substitute raw materials for stainless steel scrap. Currently, inventory at stainless steel scrap yards remained relatively high. Coupled with tight tax invoice availability, stainless steel mills were not active in procurement tenders, and the procurement pace continued to slow down. Amid the resonance of multiple bearish factors, stainless steel scrap prices fell in line with futures and finished products. Although stainless steel scrap still maintained a clear economic advantage over high-grade NPI, under the overall weak market atmosphere, cost support was difficult to translate into price support and failed to reverse the downward price trend. Overall, the stainless steel scrap market this week showed a weak pattern of "futures drag, weaker raw materials, and pressure on supply and demand." In the short term, bearish factors are expected to dominate, and stainless steel scrap prices are expected to remain in the doldrums.

[SMM Analysis]Analysis of Import and Export Data for Unwrought Aluminum Alloy, January-February 2026

SMM News, March 20: Lead prices weakened this week, and secondary lead smelters lowered scrap battery purchase prices due to profit pressure. Today, the average scrap battery purchase prices at smelters were: waste e-bike battery at 9,825 yuan/mt, waste automotive lead-acid battery (white shell) at 9,875 yuan/mt, and waste automotive starter lead-acid battery (black shell) at 10,125 yuan/mt. Recyclers also followed the decline, and after prices were cut, downstream collection outlets held back cargoes, with recycling volume decreasing WoW. Smelter inventory diverged, with low-inventory smelters holding only enough for one week of production, while high-inventory smelters made limited just-in-time procurement after small price cuts. According to the SMM survey, market expectations for lead prices were weak, and if prices continue to weaken next week, scrap battery prices are expected to be lowered again. This week, the mainstream self pick-up price at major ports for imported crude lead was at a discount of 50-0 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, while some cargoes were at a premium of 50 yuan/mt. Domestic secondary crude lead cargoes were quoted firmly due to insufficient operating rates caused by cost pressure. As of this Friday, the mainstream tax-excluded ex-factory prices stood near 15,200 yuan/mt. Going into next week, imported lead is still expected to arrive at ports one after another, and downstream enterprises have been active in making inquiries. SMM expects domestic secondary crude lead supply to remain tight. » Subscribe to View Historical SMM Metal Spot Prices

SMM Nickel, March 20: Macro and Market News: (1) The Party Committee of the People's Bank of China held an enlarged meeting on March 18, which stated that it would continue to effectively implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy, firmly safeguard the stable operation of financial markets such as equities, bonds, and foreign exchange, and advance legislative formulation and amendments including the People's Bank of China Law and the Financial Stability Law. (2) The interest rate futures market priced in only 5.5 basis points of US Fed interest rate cuts this year, and bets on rate hikes began to emerge. Spot Market: On March 20, the SMM price of #1 refined nickel rose by 3,000 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average price of Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 6,550 yuan/mt, down 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the mainstream China electrodeposited nickel brands were quoted at -300-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2605) staged a sharp rebound, closing the morning session at 134,780 yuan/mt, up 1.50. Yesterday, nickel prices once fell below the 130,000 yuan mark, as trades on expectations of a global economic recession triggered by escalating geopolitical conflict in the Middle East put the metals complex under pressure overall. Nickel prices then took the lead in rebounding sharply, recovering to around 135,000 yuan/mt in the morning session. Short term, sentiment from the macro perspective may continue to dominate the market, and nickel prices may maintain wide swings.

[SMM Daily Review: Low-Priced Sell-Offs Fueled Panic Sentiment, Triggering a Phased Decline in High-Grade NPI] March 20 News: SMM's upstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 2.84, down 0.04 MoM, while the downstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 1.63, up 0.04 MoM.