SMM August 20 News: Price Review: As of Thursday this week, the SMM alumina index stood at 2,681.62 yuan/mt, down 0.46 yuan/mt from last Thursday. In Shandong, the price was reported at 2,650-2,720 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt WoW; in Henan, 2,690-2,750 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt WoW; in Shanxi, 2,680-2,740 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt WoW; in Guangxi, 2,580-2,640 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt WoW; and in Guizhou, 2,720-2,790 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt WoW. Markets Outside China: As of August 13, 2026, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $360/mt, with an ocean freight rate of $32/mt, and the USD/CNY selling rate was around 6.74. This price was equivalent to approximately 3,066.17 yuan/mt at mainstream Chinese ports, which was 384.55 yuan/mt higher than the alumina index price. Seven spot alumina transactions were concluded outside China this week, with details as follows: (1) On August 20, 2026, an alumina transaction was concluded outside China at $363/mt FOB East Australia for 30,000 mt, or $364/mt FOB East Australia for 50,000 mt, seller's option, with October shipment. (2) On August 13, 2026, 30,000 mt of alumina was traded outside China at $374/mt CFR Malaysia, with August shipment. (3) On August 14, 2026, 30,000 mt of alumina was traded outside China at $362.5/mt FOB West Australia, with September shipment. (4) On August 14, 2026, 63,000 mt of alumina was traded outside China at $409/mt CIF Rotterdam. (5) On August 14, 2026, 30,000 mt of alumina was traded outside China at $400/mt FOB Jamaica, with September shipment. (6) On August 13, 2026, 30,000 mt of alumina was traded outside China at $360/mt FOB West Australia or $358/mt FOB East Australia, with October shipment. (7) On August 13, 2026, 30,000 mt of alumina was traded outside China at $374/mt CFR Malaysia, with August shipment. Chinese Market: According to SMM data, as of Thursday this week, China's total installed capacity of metallurgical-grade alumina was 118.42 million mt/year, with total operating capacity at 88.01 million mt/year. The national alumina weekly operating rate remained flat WoW at 74.33%. Specifically, the weekly operating rate for alumina in Shandong remained flat WoW at 89.14%; in Shanxi, flat at 64.9%; in Henan, flat at 56.53%; in Guangxi, flat at 78.05%; and in Guizhou, flat at 83.05%. Spot market side, two transactions were concluded this week. Xinjiang procured 5,000 mt of spot alumina at delivered prices of 2,960 yuan/mt each. Xinjiang procured 10,000 mt of spot alumina at delivered prices of 2,985 yuan/mt each. Spot alumina prices fell steadily this week, with the oversupply situation continuing to weigh on China prices. Markets outside China showed a different trend, with alumina prices rising steadily, mainly due to two reasons: first, transportation issues in the Middle East increased demand for bagged alumina, leading to a premium and sustained rise in prices outside China; second, bauxite supply in Indonesia was generally tight, limiting local alumina production and pushing spot prices outside China higher. Domestically, operating capacity for alumina remained stable this week, with weekly production at 1.688 million mt. Inventory performance showed divergence: raw material inventories at aluminum smelters decreased by 9,000 mt to 3.399 million mt, with current consumption primarily from in-factory inventory and long-term contract procurement pace maintained, overall changes relatively small; finished product inventories at alumina refineries decreased by 3,000 mt to 1.217 million mt, with enterprises maintaining normal long-term contract shipments and limited fluctuations; port inventories decreased by 35,000 mt to 1.016 million mt, mainly due to a decline in pickup volume; warrant inventories increased by 15,000 mt to 288,000 mt, and in-transit inventories edged up by 2,000 mt to 1.325 million mt. Overall, total alumina inventories in China decreased by 30,000 mt to 7.245 million mt. Looking ahead to next week, an alumina enterprise in Guangxi will resume production after maintenance ends, with capacity expected to recover, and overall supply is expected to increase, keeping the market under pressure. On imports and exports, July net imports were 63,000 mt, and net imports are expected to decrease going forward, with port inventories likely to decline during the period. Overall, inventory levels are expected to fluctuate within the current range, and spot prices are expected to remain in the doldrums. [Data other than public information are based on public information, market communication, and the SMM internal database model, processed by SMM for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.]

[Supply Side Production Cut Expectations and Disruption Intensify, Silicon Metal Prices Continue Strong]: On the market quotation and transaction side, affected by expectations for month-end production cuts at large plants in Xinjiang, silicon enterprises generally have a strong sentiment to hold prices firm. Their quotes increased WoW, and futures-spot traders also raised their quotes following the rise in futures prices, leaving almost no low-priced supply in the market. The center of suppliers' quotations generally increased, while China's downstream users and users outside China show little willingness to chase price rises. Some downstream users have poor acceptance of high prices and mainly place orders on demand for restocking.

SMM August 20 News: Domestic Bauxite: Domestic Ore Supply Disruptions Continue, Mainstream Prices Remain Stable Affected by the Shanxi coking coal incident, mining at major domestic bauxite production areas such as Shanxi and Henan has experienced some disruptions in the short term, leading to phased changes in ore supply. Meanwhile, alumina prices remain at a relatively high level, and alumina refineries have moderate tolerance for raw material price increases, mostly passively accepting current ore prices for now. As of today, transaction prices for bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 5 and 60% alumina content in Shanxi are around 530-550 yuan/mt EXW at crushing plants excluding VAT; in Henan, prices for similar specifications are around 500-540 yuan/mt EXW; in Guiyang, prices for bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 6 and 60% alumina content are 490-540 yuan/mt EXW price including VAT; in Guangxi, prices for bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 6 and 53% alumina content are 320-335 yuan/mt EXW at crushing plants excluding VAT. Imported Bauxite: Bauxite Price Hikes Fell Short of Early-Month Expectations, Upstream Import Ore Quotes Slightly Down Data as of August 14 showed that total weekly port departures of bauxite from major ports in Guinea were 4.6891 million mt, up 12,800 mt from the previous week, with shipments basically stable. Due to renewed tensions in the US-Iran situation, oil prices rebounded again, and ocean freight rates from Guinea to China followed with an upward trend. Market quotes rose to around 37-38 $/dmt, and mine costs continued to increase to varying degrees. Combined with policy uncertainties in Guinea and weather-related transport disruptions, Guinean mines tightened control over bauxite shipments. For Australia, as of August 14, weekly port departures from major Australian ports totaled 1.1008 million mt, up 174,000 mt from the previous week, with shipments basically flat. Going forward, attention should be paid to the pace of shipments from Australian mines and changes in port shipments. As of August 14, China's bauxite port arrivals totaled 4.8239 million mt, down 402,800 mt from the previous week. Continued attention is needed on the impact of oil price and ocean freight rate fluctuations on future arrival pace and landed costs. Price-wise, Guinea's August long-term contract quotes for bauxite were in the range of 73-74 $/mt, but downstream price acceptance was relatively limited. Meanwhile, bauxite inventories at China's alumina refineries remain at a high level. This week, alumina refinery bauxite inventories were relatively stable, with days of inventories around 96 days, putting some upward pressure on ore prices. For Guinean bauxite, transportation costs from Guinea to China rebounded, mine costs increased, and the traditional rainy season along with adverse weather caused shipment reductions. As a result, upstream and trader quotations did not meet early-month expectations, slightly declining to a high price range of $72-73/mt. Under the dual impact of persistently high inventory and shrinking profits, China's alumina refineries maintained their intended transaction prices in the $70-71/mt range. The divergence between upstream and downstream in the bauxite market remained significant, with transaction activity slowing down, and the stalemate continuing since last week. As of Thursday this week, the FOB quotation for Guinean bauxite was $36-44/mt, flat WoW; the CIF price was $70-73/mt, down $0.5/mt WoW; and the SMM imported bauxite index price stood at $71.99/mt, up $0.27/mt WoW. Moving forward, bauxite prices will still depend on mine costs, the impact of Guinea's traditional rainy season and the government's bauxite export quota policy on overall shipments. SMM will continue to closely monitor the bauxite market trends and transaction conditions. Overall, domestic ore prices remained at current levels. Meanwhile, China's alumina refineries' inventories remained high (about 96 days), and the price negotiation between buyers and sellers persisted. The uncertainty of Guinea's quota policy, shipment decreases, and the traditional rainy season also brought certain upward pressure on bauxite costs. In the short term, due to the dual impact of costs and policies leading to reduced shipments, imported ore prices are expected to remain in a high-level stalemate. Subsequently, close attention should be paid to the implementation of Guinea's quota policy and ocean freight rate trends.

[SMM Silver Weekly Review: Silver Prices Saw a V-Shaped Reversal This Week, with Spot Discounts Continuing to Widen] Silver prices fell first and then rose this week. Mid-week, they plunged sharply, dragged down by a global bond sell-off and a surge in US Treasury yield; subsequently, the Treasury’s expanded buybacks triggered a sharp drop in the US dollar, and silver prices rebounded strongly to regain lost ground. Spot market discounts continued to widen, with insufficient downstream buying interest, forming a divergent pattern of “rising prices, widening discounts.” Inventory buildup totaled 53 mt, while ETF holdings edged down. In the short term, prices were expected to see wild swings; watch the US Treasury yield trend.

This week, macro signals were mixed. Early on, surging Treasury yields and hawkish Fed expectations weighed on precious metals. Mid-week, the Treasury expanded buybacks, pulling long-end yields lower and sparking a rebound. Yields remain high and the Fed’s hawkish tilt keeps downside risks alive, but debt concerns and central bank buying offer solid medium-term support. Focus shifts to Jackson Hole and US-Iran developments.

SMM August 20 Today at 11:30, the futures closing price was 107,370 yuan/mt, up 470 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premiums were 350 yuan/mt, down 45 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, copper scrap prices increased by 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The sales sentiment index for copper scrap fell to 2.69, and the purchasing sentiment index fell to 1.88. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 4,387 yuan/mt, up 199 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,290 yuan/mt. According to an SMM survey, copper prices stopped falling and stabilized. Secondary copper rod enterprises reported an increase in upstream supply, and they were all worried about the risk of further price declines. Meanwhile, secondary copper rod enterprises indicated that as the traditional peak season arrived, coinciding with the increase in supply, most reasonably priced materials were fully traded, and copper scrap trading was relatively active during the day.