SMM July 20: The SHFE lead 2609 contract opened at 15,950 yuan/mt in the day session, drifted lower after opening, and in the afternoon bears intensified selling to push prices down to 15,780 yuan/mt. Near the close, bears took profits, leading to a slight rebound, and the contract finally settled at 15,810 yuan/mt, down 0.41%. The demand side remained the core constraint capping lead price rises. The battery industry is currently in the traditional consumption off-season, with lead-acid energy storage and EV battery plants in China operating at low levels. Downstream enterprises hold ample channel inventory, and a strong wait-and-see sentiment dominates procurement. There are only sporadic rigid demand purchases in the market, with an absence of bulk restocking. Spot transactions remained sluggish, failing to provide sustained buying support to the futures market. Data source statement: All data other than publicly available information are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, for reference only and do not constitute any decision-making advice.

[SMM Morning Call Summary: Macro Sentiment Intertwined with Fundamentals; SHFE Tin in a Dilemma, Focus on Marginal Changes]

[7.17 Morning Meeting Minutes] US June PPI declined 0.3% MoM, the first drop since last year, while market expectations were for a flat reading; June PPI rose 5.5% YoY, significantly narrowing from the 6.5% in May; June core PPI YoY growth slowed to 4.7%, with only a 0.2% MoM increase, both below market expectations. On July 16, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract surged in early trading, breaking through 130,000 yuan/mt and briefly hitting 133,000 yuan/mt, with a morning gain of 2.9%; LME nickel simultaneously held above $17,000/mt, rising about 2.5% in early trading. Recently, macro, policy, and cost-side positives re-emerged. Combined with a MACD golden cross, nickel prices holding above the 10-day moving average, and bearish funds taking profits, nickel prices have rebound momentum. However, weak demand and high inventory continue to cap upside room. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade within a 127,000–137,000 yuan/mt range. Going forward, attention will focus on the results of Indonesia's July RKAB quota approval and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz.

[SMM Tin Morning Brief: The most-traded SHFE tin contract consolidated and rebounded during the night session, with downstream enterprises showing a "price fall wait-and-see + sporadic orders" state.]

Rebar futures consolidated today, with the most-traded contract closing at 3,115, up 0.26% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, most offers held steady, but in the afternoon, quotes in some regions edged down by 10 yuan/mt, and trading performance was mediocre.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SHFE Nickel Drives SS Futures Higher; Spot Stainless Steel Follows Gains, Downstream Purchases Remain Cautious According to SMM on July 16, SS futures showed an overall rising and probing pattern. Driven by SHFE nickel strength, SS simultaneously climbed and probed higher. As of the close, the most-traded SS contract settled at 14,795 yuan/mt. In the spot market, although SS futures were relatively stable in the morning and spot offers held steady accordingly, they surged rapidly in the afternoon following SHFE nickel's sharp rise, and spot offers rose in tandem. Despite rapid price fluctuations, downstream end-users remained cautious in purchasing, but low-priced cargoes in the market were basically gone. SS most-traded contract: At 10:15 a.m., SS2608 was at 14,665 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 255-605 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi was flat; for cold-rolled mill edge 304/2B coils, the average price in Wuxi was unchanged and Foshan's average price held steady; cold-rolled 316L/2B coil prices in Wuxi were flat; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil quotes in Wuxi were unchanged; and cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan were flat. This week, macro fund disturbances intensified, and stainless steel futures followed an independent weak trajectory, with the futures movement clearly diverging from SHFE nickel and other nonferrous metals. During the week, fund sentiment switched repeatedly, driving wild swings in SS futures. The key support level of 14,500 yuan/mt was breached earlier, and the overall trend center continued to shift lower, with overall market trading sentiment leaning bearish. Spot and...