H1 2026 sulfur imports fell by 771,000 mt YoY, a decline of nearly 30%. Combined imports from the four Middle Eastern countries (UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait) dropped by 1.52 million mt, a decrease of 62%. Canada emerged as a new major source, with imports rising from 172,000 mt to 328,000 mt (+90%), making it the second-largest origin. The average price in June surged to $885/mt, forming a pattern of “volume decline and price increase”.

SMM, August 10: Metals market: Last Friday overnight, base metals across domestic and overseas markets generally fell, with only LME aluminum, LME lead, LME nickel, and SHFE nickel rising together. LME nickel led the gains with a 1.5% increase, SHFE nickel rose 0.52%, LME aluminum rose 0.09%, and LME lead rose 0.03%. LME zinc led the declines with a 1.9% drop, LME tin fell 1.67%, SHFE zinc fell 1.54%, and SHFE tin fell 1.51%. Other metals fell within 1%. The alumina main contract rose 0.04%, while the aluminum main contract fell 0.09%. Last Friday overnight, ferrous metals showed mixed performance: stainless steel rose 0.21%, rebar ended flat at 3,010 yuan/mt, and iron ore fell 0.56%. For coking coal and coke, coking coal rose 1.71% and coke rose 1.15%. Last Friday overnight, in precious metals, COMEX gold rose 2.37% overnight last Friday, reclaiming $4,400/oz, and surged 7.17% for the week; COMEX silver rose 3.56% overnight last Friday, up 10.41% for the week. On the domestic front, SHFE gold rose 1.53% and SHFE silver rose 1.66%. SHFE gold gained 5.03% for the week, while SHFE silver gained 9.43%. UBS Chief Investment Officer Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi and her team said: "The current gold rally has fundamental support. We expect gold prices to march toward $5,000 per ounce in H1 2027." Since the US and Israel launched a war on Iran in late February, gold prices briefly pulled back under pressure. UBS strategists said: Risks remain in the short term. If oil prices rise or the market prices in expectations of a more hawkish Fed monetary policy and increased bond appeal, gold prices will face pressure; however, the institution remains optimistic on gold's medium- and long-term outlook. Hoffmann-Burchardi said the team expects inflation to gradually ease, and the Fed is likely to keep interest rates unchanged this year and resume its rate-cutting cycle in 2027. "Growing expectations for lower policy rates are likely to suppress real yields and weigh on the dollar, thereby boosting investment demand for gold and creating a more favorable market environment for the metal." (Wall Street CN) As of 7:40 on August 8, last Friday's overnight closing quotes: Macro front Domestic: [Over 30 trillion yuan! China's goods trade imports and exports continued growth momentum in the first seven months of this year] The General Administration of Customs released data today showing that in the first seven months of this year, China's total goods trade import and export value reached 30.13 trillion yuan, up 17.3% YoY, continuing a solid growth trend. Of which, exports reached 17.44 trillion yuan, up 14%; imports reached 12.69 trillion yuan, up 22%. In July, imports and exports totaled 4.66 trillion yuan, up 19.2% YoY. Of this, exports reached 2.71 trillion yuan, up 17.8% YoY, and imports reached 1.95 trillion yuan, up 21.2% YoY. SMM compiled the import and export data for some metal industry products based on figures released by the General Administration of Customs, as follows: [H1 aluminum industry profit up about 115% YoY, aluminum semis and aluminum products exports up about 14% YoY] In H1 2026, the aluminum industry's profit rose about 115% YoY. While aluminum prices increased, raw material costs such as alumina pulled back. Some enterprises also further adopted green electricity like hydropower and expanded the use of new energy, making production greener and gaining cost advantages. Not only were domestic clients pressing for orders, but overseas clients were also placing more orders. In H1 this year, China exported a total of 5.62 million mt of aluminum semis and aluminum products, up about 14% YoY. More orders and busier production lines meant environmental protection facilities were running at full capacity. (CCTV Finance) [Beijing: Housing Provident Fund Maximum Loan Amount to Be Moderately Raised; Married Couples' First-Home Provident Fund Loan Can Be Up to 3.4 Million Yuan] On the evening of the 7th, the Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the Beijing Municipal Commission of Planning and Natural Resources, and the Beijing Housing Provident Fund Management Center jointly issued the "Notice on Further Optimizing and Adjusting the City's Real Estate Policies." The notice mentioned that the maximum housing provident fund loan amount will be moderately raised. For a home-buying family with one provident fund contributor, the maximum loan amount for a first home is 1.2 million yuan, and for a second home it is 1 million yuan. For families where both spouses are contributors, the maximum loan amount for a first home is 2.4 million yuan, and for a second home it is 2 million yuan. For those meeting the following conditions, the maximum loan amount can be further increased: 1. For households registered in the six urban districts purchasing a first home outside those districts, the maximum can be raised by 200,000 yuan; 2. For home purchases that comply with the city's policies supporting green building development, the maximum can be raised by 400,000 yuan; 3. For Beijing-registered families with two or more children purchasing a home, it can be raised by 400,000 yuan. If multiple conditions are met, the maximum loan amount can be raised cumulatively: for a family with one contributor, the maximum increase is 600,000 yuan; for a family where both spouses are contributors, the maximum increase is 1 million yuan. The actual loan amount will be determined based on the family's repayment ability. (Jin10 Data APP) US dollar: As of last Friday’s overnight close, the US dollar index fell 0.35% to 99.6, down 0.18% for the week and recording a two-week losing streak. US nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000 in July, far below the market expectation of an 80,000 increase; data for May and June were revised down by a combined 103,000, and the labour force participation rate hit its lowest in over five years. The disappointing jobs data caused the probability of a September rate hike to plunge from 55% to 44%, the 10-year Treasury yield dived from 4.68% to 4.65%, and the US dollar index briefly fell below 99.5 intraday. ‘Fed whisperer’ Nick Timiraos: The July employment report will be a hard one for the Fed to interpret. There is no new evidence that the labour market is re-accelerating, which may partly weaken the case for a rate hike next month, though this still depends on whether inflation data can improve further. Officials held rates steady last week, but three of the 12 voting members voted for a hike. A falling unemployment rate will keep attention focused on inflation data. (Wallstreetcn) The latest New York Fed survey showed that Americans’ overall perceptions of the job market improved in July, while their inflation expectations also shifted. Consumers’ one-year-ahead inflation expectations edged down to 3.6% from 3.7%. Three-year and five-year-ahead inflation expectations were unchanged at 3.3% and 3%, respectively. The perceived probability of finding a new job among unemployed workers rose to 46.2%, the highest this year. The increase was most pronounced among those with a high school education or less and households with annual incomes below $50,000. Consumers became more optimistic about the stock market, with the expected probability that stock prices would rise in a year reaching the highest since April 2021 for this series. (Wallstreetcn) According to CME’s “FedWatch”: the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in September is 59.9%, with a 40.1% chance of a cumulative 25bp hike. For October, the probabilities are: rates unchanged (45.3%), a cumulative 25bp hike (44.9%), and a cumulative 50bp hike (9.8%). (Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: This week, China will release the July M2 money supply y/y data, among others; the US will release the July NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, the weekly change in ADP employment for the week ended July 25, July existing home sales annualized, July CPI y/y not seasonally adjusted, July CPI m/m seasonally adjusted, July core CPI m/m seasonally adjusted, July core CPI y/y not seasonally adjusted, the high yield and bid-to-cover ratio for the 10-year Treasury auction on August 12, initial jobless claims for the week ended August 8, July PPI y/y and m/m, July retail sales m/m, the preliminary August one-year inflation expectations, June business inventories m/m, and the preliminary August University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index; the eurozone will release the August Sentix Investor Confidence Index, June industrial production m/m, the revised Q2 GDP y/y, final Q2 employment q/q seasonally adjusted, and the June seasonally adjusted trade balance; the UK will release the preliminary Q2 GDP y/y, June three-month GDP m/m, June manufacturing output m/m, June seasonally adjusted goods trade balance, and June industrial production m/m; data including France’s July final CPI m/m, Canada’s June wholesale sales m/m, Japan’s June trade balance, the Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision on August 11, and Germany’s July final CPI m/m will also be released. Additionally, the National Energy Administration releases nationwide electricity consumption data around the 15th of each month. The Bank of Japan releases the Summary of Opinions from its July monetary policy meeting. The Reserve Bank of Australia announces its interest rate decision and monetary policy statement. RBA Governor Bullock holds a monetary policy press conference. 2026 FOMC voting member and Cleveland Fed President Hammack delivers a speech. 2027 FOMC voting member and Richmond Fed President Barkin speaks on the economic outlook. RBA Governor Bullock attends a hearing. Crude oil: Both crude oil benchmarks fell in overnight trading last Friday, with WTI down 0.27% and Brent down 0.13%. Weekly, WTI dropped 8.96% and Brent fell 6.31%. The market remains focused on negotiations between the US and Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Expectations of a US-Iran peace agreement have compressed the geopolitical risk premium. Goldman Sachs’ energy research team estimates Brent's fair value at $80 and maintains a consolidation range of $80-90. On August 7, US officials said that progress has been made between Oman and Iran on the Strait of Hormuz issue, and an agreement is expected soon. Once an agreement to restore unimpeded commercial shipping is announced, the US will lift the blockade on Iranian ports. US actions will continue to depend on actual performance and will be linked to Iran’s compliance with its commitments. Regarding the above, Iran and Oman have yet to respond. (CCTV) It was learned on August 7 that Hassan Kashkavi, spokesman for the Iranian parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, stated that Iran and Oman have clarified the overall framework of the memorandum of understanding on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, with the final text and specific details to be released soon. On August 6, Iran disclosed preliminary text details of the proposed Strait of Hormuz strategic management plan, which includes prohibiting hostile parties from transiting the strait, with violators to be fined up to 20% of the cargo value. Iran has repeatedly stressed in recent days that arrangements concerning the Strait of Hormuz should be decided solely by Iran and Oman, and will never accept any external intervention. Meanwhile, US President Trump said on the 6th that the US is participating in the negotiations on the Strait of Hormuz. (CCTV) This week, the EIA releases its Short-Term Energy Outlook, the IEA publishes its monthly oil market report, and OPEC issues its monthly oil market report (specific release times are to be confirmed, typically around 18-21 Beijing time). China's refined oil products will open a new round of price adjustment window.

According to customs statistics, in the first seven months of 2026, the total import and export value of China's goods trade reached 30.13 trillion yuan, a YoY (the same hereinafter) increase of 17.3%. Exports were 17.44 trillion yuan, up 14%; imports were 12.69 trillion yuan, up 22%. In July, the total import and export value of China's goods trade was 4.66 trillion yuan, up 19.2%. Exports were 2.71 trillion yuan, up 17.8%; imports were 1.95 trillion yuan, up 21.2%. By trade mode, in the first seven months, China's ordinary trade imports and exports reached 18.13 trillion yuan, up 10.2%; processing trade imports and exports stood at 5.81 trillion yuan, up 26.3%; bonded logistics imports and exports were 5.18 trillion yuan, up 40.8%. By trading partner, in the first seven months, China's trade with ASEAN totaled 5.14 trillion yuan, up 20%; with the EU, it was 3.67 trillion yuan, up 9.5%; with the US, it was 2.38 trillion yuan, down 1.6%. Over the same period, China's combined imports and exports with Belt and Road partner countries amounted to 15.36 trillion yuan, up 15.5%. By type of enterprise, in the first seven months, private enterprises' imports and exports stood at 17.16 trillion yuan, up 17.2%; foreign-invested enterprises' imports and exports were 8.78 trillion yuan, up 17.6%; state-owned enterprises' imports and exports reached 4.14 trillion yuan, up 17.3%. By key commodities, On the export side, in the first seven months, China exported 11.12 trillion yuan of mechanical and electrical products, up 21.2%; labor-intensive products 2.37 trillion yuan, down 1.4%; agricultural products 429.69 billion yuan, up 3.7%. On the import side, in the first seven months, China imported 5.31 trillion yuan of mechanical and electrical products, up 29.7%; 283 million mt of crude oil, down 13.2%; and 904.1 billion yuan of agricultural products, up 7.4%. Based on data released by the General Administration of Customs, SMM has compiled the import and export situation of some metal industry products as follows: Exports: In July 2026, rare earth exports were 4,223.5 mt, a YoY decrease of 29.5% from July 2025 . Cumulative exports for January-July 2026 were 34,706.3 mt, a YoY decrease of 10% from January-July 2025. In July 2026, steel exports were 10.121 million mt, a YoY increase of 2.9% from July 2025 . Cumulative exports for January-July 2026 were 6,499.5 mt, a YoY decrease of 4.4 % from January-July 2025. In July 2026, exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum semis were 643,000 mt , a YoY increase of 18.6% from July 2025 . In January-July 2026, cumulative exports were 4.039 million mt, a YoY increase of 16.7% from January-July 2025. Imports: In July 2026, iron ore and concentrates imports were 108.085 million mt, a YoY increase of 3.3% from July 2025 . In January-July 2026, cumulative imports were 736.841 million mt, a YoY increase of 5.9% from January-July 2025 . In July 2026, copper ore and concentrates imports were 2.379 million mt, a YoY decrease of 7.1% from July 2025 . In January-July 2026, cumulative imports were 16.985 million mt, a YoY decrease of 1.8% from January-July 2025 . In July 2026, coal and lignite imports were 42.728 million mt, a YoY increase of 20% from July 2025 . In January-July 2026, cumulative imports were 268.109 million mt, a YoY increase of 4.3% from January-July 2025 . In July 2026, rare earth imports reached 9,451.3 mt, a YoY decrease of 1.8% from July 2025 . In January-July 2026, cumulative imports reached 63,323.0 mt, a YoY decrease of 65.5% from January-July 2025 . In July 2026, steel imports reached 445,000 mt, a YoY decrease of 1.5% from July 2025 . In January-July 2026, cumulative imports reached 3.14 million mt, a YoY decrease of 10.1% from January-July 2025 . In July 2026, imports of unwrought copper and copper semis were 425,000 mt, a YoY decrease of 11.5% from July 2025 . In January-July 2026, cumulative imports were 2.915 million mt, a YoY decrease of 6.2 % .

On August 7, data from the General Administration of Customs showed that China exported 10.211 million mt of steel products in July 2026, down 199,000 mt MoM, or 1.9% MoM; cumulative exports from January to July reached 64.995 million mt, down 4.4% YoY. In July 2026, China imported 445,000 mt of steel products, up 4,000 mt MoM, or 0.8% MoM; cumulative imports from January to July were 3.14 million mt, down 10.1% YoY. Table 1: Steel Imports and Exports Data Summary, January-July Source: SMM • China's steel exports stayed elevated with fluctuations in July According to SMM's July export schedule survey, the planned HRC export volume for the month was 1.059 million mt, slightly higher than actual exports in June. SMM export order data showed that export orders for steel products declined from a high level in May. At that time, port inspections on MD and other activities were relatively strict, which slowed down the pace of some export orders. However, orders at steel mills improved slightly. Coupled with the fact that cargoes delayed due to earlier inspections were gradually shipped out in July, overall steel exports in July still delivered a relatively decent performance. Table 2: China's Total Steel Exports Source: SMM • July steel imports remained low On the import side, steel imports in July were 445,000 mt, up 4,000 mt MoM, or 0.8% MoM; cumulative imports from January to July were 3.14 million mt, down 10.1% YoY. Net exports of steel reached 61.855 million mt. Short-term Steel Export Outlook 1. Global manufacturing slid further MoM; overseas demand remained in off-season mode According to J.P. Morgan's global PMI data, the Global Manufacturing PMI for July 2026 came in at 52.1. Although it remained in expansion territory, the pace of expansion slowed for the third consecutive month. The preemptive steel stockpiling demand earlier triggered by geopolitical disruptions in Middle Eastern shipping has been fully cleared. Combined with persistently weak demand for consumer goods, property, and infrastructure among end-users in Europe and the US, global commodity and physical steel orders collectively fell into contraction territory. Alongside this, ASEAN manufacturing PMI also declined again. China's Manufacturing New Export Orders Index for July was 49.6%, down 0.5 percentage points MoM, slipping back into contraction territory. 2. Overseas steel mills have proactively controlled production; supply contraction lacks sustainability In June 2026, global crude steel production fell 0.3% YoY to 157.9 million mt. In China, as the southern rainy season and high-temperature off-season deepened, downstream steel product construction was significantly hampered. Under heavy pressure from persistently inverted profit margins, steel mills' monthly output edged down 0.8% MoM. Excluding China, production in the rest of the world declined 2.0% MoM, with performance diverging in Asia's core regions. India and Vietnam both saw flat MoM output in June; the former was supported by robust domestic infrastructure resilience, while the latter benefited from earlier concentrated stockpiling and steady operation following new capacity ramp-up. In contrast, Japan and South Korea were dragged by slowing production schedules in downstream automotive and manufacturing sectors, showing a seasonal slight correction. Notably, the Middle East and CIS regions, which had plunged deeply in May, saw marginal recovery. Meanwhile, Europe and the US collectively entered a seasonal weakening trajectory. EU production in June dropped significantly by 5.3% MoM, with Germany tumbling 9.4%; North America declined 5.9% MoM and the US also fell 4.0%. The main reasons for the pullback in Europe and the US were, on one hand, the industry's entry into the routine summer maintenance period, and on the other, the high summer electricity prices and steel scrap prices squeezing electric furnace margins, significantly dampening mills' willingness to operate. The decline in overseas production theoretically offers structural opportunities for China's exports. However, the drops in end markets like Europe and the US were more due to proactive production cuts driven by falling demand. Coupled with India and Vietnam still maintaining high output, China's exports continue to face pressure. Figure 1: Global Crude Steel Production by Region Source: SMM 3. Price advantage continued to narrow; export order-taking pressure persisted As of July 31, 2026, the HRC export offers (FOB) for India, Turkey, and the CIS stood at $515/mt, $575/mt, and $515/mt, respectively, while China's HRC export offer (FOB) was $486/mt. China's HRC offers were -$29/mt, -$89/mt, and -$29/mt lower than those other countries, respectively. China's steel export price advantage further narrowed MoM from June. Overseas markets remained in the off-season, and low-price promotions remained the main channel for those countries to ease domestic pressures. In contrast, domestic sales pressure was not evident, and prices remained relatively firm. The price spread between Chinese and overseas markets continued to narrow, and pressure on export order-taking persisted. Figure 2: HRC Offers in Major Global Markets Source: SMM 4. Export orders rebounded from a bottom in June-July; order-taking improved slightly According to SMM's latest steel mill export order schedule, the planned HRC export volume this month was 1.023 million mt, down 2.8% MoM from the actual level last month. SMM steel export order data showed that although overseas markets remained in the off-season, recent restrictions on resource exports from the Middle East (especially Iran) created a notable supply gap in semi-finished products in overseas markets, particularly in Southeast Asia. This shortfall was quickly filled by Chinese resources. On the other hand, traders took profits from spot-futures price spread operations in late July, offering lower actual prices to facilitate transactions, which led to a bottoming rebound in export order data in July. In reality, overseas demand had not yet emerged from the off-season, and a steady recovery in export order-taking still faces pressure. Figure 3: SMM Steel Export Order Volume Source: SMM 5. Anti-dumping cases related to steel increased in July In July, the number of new anti-dumping cases related to steel initiated against China increased, covering products such as steel pipes, coated steel, sections, coiled rebar, wire rod, and hot-rolled coils. Details of specific cases and affected volumes are shown in the table below: Table 3: New Anti-Dumping Cases in July Source: SMM Taking all factors into account, lower actual transaction prices stimulated some volume growth, with semi-finished products accounting for a larger share. Given that July export numbers have already been significantly elevated, SMM expects that total steel exports in August will not sustain a strong unilateral upward trend. Instead, they will move sideways in a high range, while semi-finished product exports will remain relatively high. Figure 4: Steel Exports and Forecast, 2024-2026 Source: SMM Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice. Note: This article is an original work of this official account. For requests related to reprinting, whitelisting, cooperation, etc., please contact us. Without permission, no part may be reproduced, modified, used, sold, transferred, displayed, translated, compiled, disseminated, or otherwise disclosed to any third party, nor may any third party be authorized to use it. Otherwise, once discovered, SMM will pursue legal action for infringement, including but not limited to holding the infringing party liable for breach of contract, restitution of unjust enrichment, and compensation for direct and indirect economic losses. 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This week, industry chain prices diverged. Lithium ore edged down alongside lithium carbonate, but mines continued to hold prices firm, making profit distribution across the industry chain a market focus. Supported by maintenance and tight spot order supply, lithium carbonate prices consolidated on a subdued note, while lithium hydroxide prices initially fell before rebounding. The cobalt industry chain remained generally under pressure—with weakening overseas quotations and sluggish off-season demand, refined cobalt, intermediate products, and cobalt salt prices continued to weaken, and the price spread between buyers and sellers widened. Nickel sulphate edged down, with the market still primarily focused on destocking; ternary cathode precursor prices declined due to weaker nickel and cobalt salt prices, while ternary cathode material prices remained basically stable. LFP prices proved resilient, supported by rising processing fees, with August production schedules continuing to grow and high-quality capacity remaining tight. Artificial graphite prices rose, the supply-demand balance for separators stayed in tight balance, and electrolyte prices were pushed up by raw material cost transmission. Supply of key materials for sodium-ion batteries remained tight, while recycling-side transactions were subdued. On the terminal side, EV and ESS demand maintained resilience, though the consumer market recovery remained limited. Looking ahead, the focus will be on peak season stockpiling and demand realization.

SMM, August 7 report: In metals market: As of midday closing, base metals in the domestic market nearly all rose. SHFE copper rose 0.56%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.86%. SHFE lead rose 0.48%. SHFE zinc rose 1.35%. SHFE tin fell 0.3%. SHFE nickel rose 0.44%. Additionally, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract rose 0.32%, the most-traded alumina futures contract fell 0.33%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 1.23%. The most-traded silicon metal contract rose 2.21%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract rose 5.03%. Ferrous metals all rose. Iron ore rose 0.28%, rebar edged up, hot-rolled coil rose 0.43%. Stainless steel rose 1.39%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 2.6%, the most-traded coke contract rose 3.22%. In the overseas base metals market, as of 11:40, LME metals collectively rose. LME copper rose 0.69%, LME aluminum rose 0.31%, LME lead rose 0.4%, LME zinc rose 0.44%. LME tin rose 0.42%. LME nickel rose 1.61%. In precious metals, as of 11:40, COMEX gold rose 0.43%, COMEX silver rose 1.45%. In domestic precious metals: SHFE gold rose 0.28%, the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 0.11%. Additionally, as of midday closing, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 1.71%, the most-traded palladium futures contract fell 1.55%. As of midday closing, the most-traded European route container shipping futures contract rose 1.79% to 1,682 points. As of 11:40 on August 7, some futures midday quotes: Spot and Fundamentals Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was at 160 yuan/mt, up 70 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was at a premium of 60 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was at 0 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 108,355 yuan/mt, up 455 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 108,245 yuan/mt, up 425 yuan/mt from the previous trading day... Macro Front China: [Over 30 trillion yuan! China's goods trade imports and exports continued their growth trend in the first seven months of this year] The General Administration of Customs released statistics today showing that in the first seven months of this year, China's goods trade imports and exports totaled 30.13 trillion yuan, up 17.3% YoY, continuing a strong growth trend. Exports reached 17.44 trillion yuan, up 14%; imports reached 12.69 trillion yuan, up 22%. In July, total imports and exports reached RMB4.66 trillion, up 19.2% YoY. Of which, exports stood at RMB2.71 trillion, up 17.8% YoY, and imports were RMB1.95 trillion, up 21.2% YoY. [National Energy Administration: Increase Independent R&D of Key Power Equipment, Promote Breakthroughs in Key Technologies Such as Power Chips and UHV Components] The National Energy Administration issued the "Power Production Safety '15th Five-Year' Action Plan". It mentioned strengthening "AI+" safety governance, innovating high-precision fault prediction and health management methods for equipment, promoting the embedding of AI technology into intelligent safety tools, and researching AI large model-based decision support technology for power production safety. Increase independent R&D of key power equipment, strengthen R&D of new-type protective materials, establish a special plan for tackling core component technologies in power equipment, and promote breakthroughs in key technologies such as power chips and UHV components. Promote innovation in safety and quality control technologies for power construction projects, research and build an intelligent supervision system for power construction projects, and use AI, big data and other means to strengthen off-site supervision and quality monitoring of key power projects. (National Energy Administration) [General Administration of Customs: Cumulative Integrated Circuit Exports Up 99.5% YoY, January-July] Data released by the General Administration of Customs showed that China's integrated circuit export value reached $38.74 billion in July, and the cumulative export value from January to July reached $216 billion, up 99.5% YoY. (Jinshi Data APP) [PBOC Open Market Operations Net Drain of RMB133 Billion on the Day, Net Drain of RMB1,225.5 Billion for the Week] The PBOC conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation of RMB1 billion today, and as RMB134 billion of 7-day reverse repos matured, a net drain of RMB133 billion was realized on the day. This week, the PBOC conducted 7-day reverse repo operations of RMB176.5 billion, overnight reverse repo operations of RMB300 billion, and outright reverse repo operations of RMB500 billion. As RMB116.5 billion of 7-day reverse repos and RMB900 billion of overnight reverse repos matured this week, a net drain of RMB1,225.5 billion was realized for the week. (Jinshi Data APP) US dollar: As of 11:40, the US dollar index rose 0.02% to 99.96. The market is eyeing US non-farm payrolls data for clues on the interest rate outlook. According to the CME "Fed Watch": the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in September is 45%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 55%. By October, the probability of unchanged rates is 31%, a cumulative 25-bp hike is 51.9%, and a cumulative 50-bp hike is 17.1%. (Jinshi Data App) US Fed’s Musalem: The current inflation rate remains well above the US Fed’s 2% target. Monetary policy must effectively curb underlying inflation rather than tolerate current high inflation in hopes of future productivity gains. US Q2 labour productivity increased faster than expected, mainly because enterprises sought to ease pressures from rising costs. Data released on Thursday showed Q2 nonfarm productivity grew at an annualised rate of 1.4%, above the upwardly revised 0.8% increase in Q1, and also exceeded market expectations. Meanwhile, unit labour costs rose 1.3%, below expectations. US Fed officials, investors, and economists have been looking for signs that hundreds of billions of dollars in AI investment are boosting labour productivity. However, since official data fluctuates greatly from quarter to quarter, it will still take time to observe clear trends. Labour costs are one of the largest expenditure items for many enterprises, and efficiency gains can allow wages to rise without fuelling inflation. In the long term, higher productivity helps improve living standards, but some economists worry that if AI-driven productivity growth persists, some enterprises may delay hiring or even cut staff. Q2 productivity growth was supported by the strongest output expansion since Q3 2025, while the increase in hours worked was more moderate. (Jinshi Data App) Data: Today will see the release of France’s Q2 ILO unemployment rate, Germany’s June seasonally adjusted industrial output m/m, Germany’s June seasonally adjusted trade balance, the UK’s July Halifax seasonally adjusted house price index m/m, France’s June trade balance, Switzerland’s July consumer sentiment index, Canada’s July employment change, the US July unemployment rate, the US July seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls, the US July average hourly earnings y/y, the US July average hourly earnings m/m, the US July New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations, China’s July US dollar-denominated trade balance, China’s July foreign exchange reserves, and China’s July trade balance. Watch for: 2028 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem speaks on the US economy and monetary policy; 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President Barkin speaks. Crude oil: As of 11:40, both oil prices rose, with WTI up 1.01% and Brent up 1.06%. Market concerns over the shipping outlook through the Strait of Hormuz supported prices. According to preliminary US government data, US crude oil imports from Saudi Arabia fell to zero in July this year, the first time since 1985 that there were no Saudi crude imports for an entire month. Data released by the US Department of Energy (DOE) on Wednesday local time showed that Saudi crude oil shipments to the US had completely halted in July. Considering that US refineries had been purchasing more than 800,000 barrels per day of Saudi crude earlier this year, this drop was significant. As the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and other war-related supply disruptions pushed up crude prices linked to the global benchmark, US refineries had been seeking alternative supplies to Saudi crude. Saudi crude deliveries to the US had historically dropped to zero in isolated weeks, but July was the first time in over 40 years that the entire month fell to a minimum level. According to Kpler data, US crude oil imports from Saudi Arabia are expected to recover to around 300,000 barrels per day this month, in line with recent historical norms. (Jin10 Data APP) Saudi Arabia lowered its main crude prices for Asia, while negotiations were underway on a deal aimed at easing shipping pressures in the Strait of Hormuz. Despite Houthi threats jeopardizing an alternative route for eastbound crude shipments via the Red Sea, Saudi Arabia still lowered prices. A price list showed that Saudi Aramco cut the price of Arab Light crude for delivery to Asian clients next month by 50¢ per barrel, to $2 per barrel below the regional benchmark. A previous survey showed that traders had expected Saudi Aramco to keep its flagship crude prices unchanged. This week, global benchmark Brent crude prices fell sharply, currently trading near $80 a barrel. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►