[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Intraday trading in the spot market was subdued, while suppliers still showed willingness to hold prices firm. Downstream wait-and-see sentiment remained relatively strong, and spot premiums edged down slightly from yesterday. As the contango price spread between nearby contracts narrowed, suppliers' willingness to ship to delivery warehouses weakened somewhat, putting pressure on spot premiums. On the demand side, downstream buyers maintained just-in-time procurement, and transactions remained sluggish even after suppliers slightly lowered their quotations, as current copper prices had limited appeal to end-users. On the supply side, domestic copper and imported cargoes previously locked in at fixed prices continued to arrive, while social inventory remained at a high level. The outflow of warrants over the next two days may further weigh on spot premiums. Meanwhile, signs that the import window may still open persisted, and expectations for subsequent inflows of ex-China cargoes strengthened, further increasing supply-side pressure. Overall, amid a pattern of weak supply and demand, Shanghai spot copper premiums are expected to remain under pressure tomorrow, with a possibility of a slight widening.

March 16, 2026: Today, the average warrant price rose by $1/mt from the previous trading day and closed at $46/mt (price range $42-50/mt); the average B/L price rose by $1/mt from the previous trading day and closed at $45/mt (price range $41-49/mt); the average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price rose by $2/mt from the previous trading day and closed at $21/mt (price range $17-25/mt), with quotations referring to cargoes arriving from late March to mid-April. The import window opened intraday, and importers were active in making inquiries. Market offers were pushed higher than last Friday, but few deals were concluded before the end of the morning session, with most traders taking a wait-and-see stance. It was heard that a small volume of ER copper B/L arriving in late March was offered at $50-60/mt, QP April; EQ B/L arriving in late March and early April was offered at $35, and EQ B/L arriving in mid-to-late April was offered at $35/mt, QP May. General ER copper warrants for delivery within the week were offered at $50/mt, QP April.

[Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, the Shanghai spot copper market will officially quote against the 2604 contract. In terms of market structure, the Contango price spread between the 2604 and 2605 contracts was in the range of 110 yuan/mt to 60 yuan/mt. Suppliers showed strong willingness to sell, and with the import window wide open, expectations for continued inflows of cargo from outside China strengthened, putting spot premiums under pressure. Demand side, although copper prices pulled back again below the 100,000 yuan/mt mark, procurement enthusiasm among downstream enterprises did not improve significantly. Intraday trading was light on both buying and selling sides, and at current price levels, end-users still maintained wait-and-see sentiment toward the subsequent price trend, with procurement turning cautious. Supply side, SMM recorded social inventory at 547,300 mt, down 26,600 mt from the previous period, but the absolute level remained high. Coupled with stronger import expectations, overall supply pressure still persisted. Overall, with the contract rollover completed and import expectations strengthening, Shanghai spot copper is expected to remain under pressure tomorrow, and discounts may widen further.

Tomorrow, Shanghai spot copper quotes against the 2604 contract, with a contango spread of 110-60 yuan/mt between 2604 and 2605. Supply side: strong selling willingness, wide import window boosting inflow expectations, pressuring premiums. Demand: copper prices back below 100,000 yuan/mt but downstream buying weak; intraday trading muted, end-users cautious. SMM social inventory at 547,300 mt, down 26,600 mt but still high. With strong import expectations, supply pressure persists. Overall, with contract rollover done and strong import expectations, Shanghai spot copper expected under pressure tomorrow, discounts may widen.

Waaree Energies has commenced construction on a 10 GW integrated solar ingot and wafer manufacturing facility in Nagpur, Maharashtra. Spanning 300 acres with an investment of roughly INR 62 billion, the project is billed as India's largest of its kind. The facility aims to strengthen the domestic upstream solar supply chain, reduce import reliance under the 'Atmanirbhar Bharat' vision, and generate over 8,000 jobs. This upstream expansion strategically complements Waaree's existing 22.3 GW module and 5.4 GW cell manufacturing capacities.

Recent trends in Asian scrap copper markets are diverging: China’s Bare Bright copper import discount rate have climbed to 98%-98.5% due to tight tax-inclusive copper scrap supply, pushing Japanese quotes up by 1 percentage point to similar levels via strong market linkage. Conversely, South Korea remains stable at 97.5%-98% due to high domestic inventories level. According to feedback from local downstream enterprises, high domestic inventory levels mean current procurement discount rate are expected to remain unchanged through the second quarter,