SMM, May 29: Following the State Council's release of the Urban Renewal 15th Five-Year Plan, the real estate industry received new policy catalysts. On May 29, the real estate development sector rose accordingly, with the market optimistic about incremental investment opportunities in areas such as urban village renovation, old residential community upgrades, and municipal infrastructure construction following the plan's implementation. As of the close on May 29, the real estate development sector gained 0.68%, and real estate services rose 0.26%. In terms of individual stocks, Fuxing Co., Sunshine Co., Tianjian Group, Xiangjiang Holdings, Everbright Jiabao, and several others hit the daily limit, while Vanke A, Financial Street, Tefа Services, and China Merchants Shekou led the gains. News [State Council Releases Urban Renewal 15th Five-Year Plan: City-Specific Policies to Increase Supply of Upgraded Housing and Regulate Development of Housing Rental Market] The State Council released the Urban Renewal 15th Five-Year Plan. The plan proposes to comprehensively assess the base of existing urban asset resources, promote classified disposal of land that has been allocated but not yet developed and projects under construction, and revitalize idle and underutilized old factory buildings, commercial and office properties, commodity housing, and public housing. It is expected to accelerate the construction of a new model for real estate development and improve fundamental systems for commodity housing development, financing, and sales. The plan calls for optimizing the supply of affordable housing, strengthening housing security for low-income urban households with housing difficulties, better meeting the basic housing needs of working-class groups facing housing difficulties with modest incomes, and gradually addressing the transitional housing difficulties of new urban residents, young people, and other groups. City-specific policies are expected to increase the supply of upgraded housing and regulate the development of the housing rental market. The plan encourages real estate development enterprises to transform and participate in urban renewal. It is expected to deepen the reform of the housing provident fund system, expand its scope of use, strive to meet the diversified housing needs of contributors at different stages, and support flexible employment workers in participating in the housing provident fund system. The plan also aims to strengthen and regulate the management of existing urban infrastructure assets. [Huang Guanglie, Deputy Secretary General of Guangzhou Municipal Government: Confident in Further Consolidating the Stabilizing and Improving Trend of Guangzhou's Property Market] On May 26, Guangzhou held a press conference on the supporting documents for the Implementation Opinions on Further Promoting Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market. Huang Guanglie, Deputy Secretary General of the Guangzhou Municipal Government, stated that going forward, Guangzhou will continue to improve the two major systems of the housing market and housing security, and continuously optimize property market regulation measures. The Municipal Bureau of Planning and Natural Resources, the Municipal Bureau of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the Municipal Provident Fund Center, and other departments have issued supporting rules on matters such as land supply, special subsidies for "sell old, buy new," and "commercial-to-provident fund loan conversion." Huadu District responded swiftly by launching eight specific measures. State-owned enterprises represented by Guangzhou Anju Group are accelerating the launch of pilot work on the acquisition and revitalization of second-hand housing. We believe that as these detailed rules are fully implemented and all sectors advance in coordination, we are confident in further consolidating the stabilizing and improving trend of Guangzhou's property market. (Jin10 Data APP) [Guangzhou's Real Estate Market Activity Has Been Continuously Rising Since May] On May 26, Guangzhou held a press conference on the series of supporting documents for the "Implementation Opinions on Further Promoting the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market." Huang Guanglie, Deputy Secretary General of the Guangzhou Municipal Government, noted that on April 30, Guangzhou issued the "Implementation Opinions on Further Promoting the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market" (known as the "Sui Eight Measures"). As the policy effects continued to release, market activity kept rising. Since May, weekly visits, subscriptions, and online signings at key new residential projects citywide increased by 26.9%, 36.9%, and 11.4% WoW, respectively; weekly signing volume of pre-owned residential properties rose 9.3% WoW, while new listing volume decreased 16.7% YoY. The new housing provident fund policy took effect, with 4,484 loan applications accepted totaling 4.746 billion yuan, up 47.05% and 56.43% YoY, respectively. [Guangzhou: Removing Restrictions on "Only Housing in the City" and Number of Provident Fund Loan Uses] On May 26, 2026, the Guangzhou Housing Provident Fund Management Center issued the normative document "Measures for Converting Commercial Personal Housing Loans to Housing Provident Fund Personal Housing Loans in Guangzhou (Interim)." It proposed expanding the scope of commercial loan banks by removing the restriction that "the original commercial loan bank must be a housing provident fund entrusted bank," allowing commercial loans from non-housing provident fund handling banks to be converted into pure housing provident fund loans. Requirements on loan types, terms, and provident fund contribution periods were relaxed. For commercial-to-provident-fund conversion handled by housing provident fund loan handling banks, applicants whose convertible provident fund loan amount is not enough to fully repay the original commercial loan principal and interest may choose to convert to a combined loan. The requirement for account opening and cumulative housing provident fund contribution period was reduced from "60 months" to "36 months." The original commercial loan disbursement period was shortened from "more than 3 years" to "more than 2 years." Restrictions on "only housing in the city" and the number of provident fund loan uses were removed, no longer requiring that "the mortgaged property is the applicant's family's only housing in the city," supporting applications for first and second improved housing. Applicants who "have never used or have used housing provident fund loans only once" may also apply for commercial-to-provident-fund conversion, free from the restriction of "never having used housing provident fund loans." (Jin10 Data) [Xiong'an New Area: Maximum Housing Provident Fund Loan Amount Raised to 800,000 Yuan] Notice of the Xiong'an New Area Housing Management Center on Optimizing and Adjusting Housing Provident Fund Withdrawal and Loan Policies. The policy stipulates that for depositors meeting the New Area's rental housing withdrawal conditions, those who have not registered a housing lease contract may withdraw up to 17,000 yuan per year; those who have registered a housing lease contract on the "Hebei Xiong'an New Area Housing Rental Information Service Platform" may withdraw up to 25,000 yuan per year. Depositors purchasing owner-occupied housing in the New Area and applying for housing provident fund loans may borrow up to 800,000 yuan. Employees of Beijing-sourced relocated units whose housing provident fund deposit location is in the New Area may borrow up to 1.2 million yuan when purchasing owner-occupied housing in the New Area and applying for housing provident fund loans. Families with two or more children purchasing owner-occupied housing in the New Area and applying for housing provident fund loans may have their maximum loan amount increased by 200,000 yuan. For employee families who have only one housing provident fund loan record nationwide that has been fully repaid and own no property in the New Area, the first-home housing provident fund loan policy shall apply. (Xiong'an Provident Fund) [Supreme Court's Liu Guixiang: Preventing and Resolving Risks in Key Areas Such as Finance and Real Estate] On May 27, Liu Guixiang, Vice-Ministerial-Level Full-Time Member of the Adjudication Committee and Second-Grade Grand Justice of the Supreme People's Court, stated at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that the people's courts will fully safeguard national security and social stability, punish criminal acts that endanger national security, public safety, and undermine the socialist market economic order in accordance with the law, and adhere to market-oriented and rule-of-law principles to coordinate administrative, civil, and criminal adjudication functions to prevent and resolve risks in key areas such as finance and real estate. [China Index Academy: Property Developers' Bond Financing in April Up Nearly 30% YoY] The latest data released by the China Index Academy showed that in April, total bond financing in the real estate sector reached 61.48 billion yuan, up 28.8% YoY and up 18.5% MoM. Specifically, credit bond financing in the real estate sector totaled 37.48 billion yuan (up 2.6% YoY, down 9.1% MoM), accounting for 61%; ex-China bond financing was 3.43 billion yuan, accounting for 5.6%; ABS financing was 20.57 billion yuan (up 83.9% YoY, up 93.1% MoM), accounting for 33.5%. [Marco Polo: Q2 Sales Improved QoQ] Marco Polo stated at a recent earnings briefing that in Q1 2026, affected by the late Chinese New Year holiday and slow market activation, the industry overall declined YoY to some extent. Since Q2, the real estate market in some cities has shown structural stabilization and recovery, with new home markets broadly stopping falling, and second-hand housing prices in core cities such as Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou beginning to rise with active transactions. The company adopted multiple measures, including building regional empowerment centers, promoting the sinking of its dealer network, expanding non-residential project business, and strengthening cooperation with whole-house decoration enterprises, resulting in a QoQ improvement in sales in Q2. [Guangzhou Anju Group to Launch Pilot Work Supporting Residents in "Selling Old and Buying New"] On May 26, Guangzhou held a press conference on the series of supporting documents for the "Implementation Opinions on Further Promoting the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market." Qian Zhe, Deputy Secretary of the Party Committee and General Manager of Guangzhou Anju Group, stated that to support residents in improving their housing conditions and facilitate the exchange chain between pre-owned and new housing, Anju Group will immediately launch pilot work supporting residents in "selling old and buying new," with a trial period ending on December 31, 2026. Following the principle of "government guidance, market-based operation, and voluntary participation," the group will acquire pre-owned residential properties through market-oriented approaches. The pilot acquisition targets pre-owned residential properties within Guangzhou's Ring Expressway, with a total price of no more than 3 million yuan, a floor area of less than 70 m², and no restriction on building age. The acquired old properties will be prioritized for use as affordable housing, talent apartments, and other purposes, primarily serving the housing needs of new urban residents, young people, and other groups, as well as resident relocation for urban self-renewal projects. [Guangzhou Huadu District Sees "Rising Volume, Stable Prices, and Active Transactions" After New Policy Implementation] On May 26, Guangzhou held a press conference on the series of supporting documents for the "Implementation Opinions on Further Promoting the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market." Mai Shaoming, Deputy District Head of Huadu District, Guangzhou, stated that after the implementation of the "Eight Measures for Guangzhou," Huadu District took the lead in the city to introduce the "Eight Measures for Huadu." Since the new policy took effect, the real estate market in Huadu District has seen a sustained rebound in market activity and a continuous release of transaction vitality. Project visits, subscriptions, policy inquiries, and pre-owned housing market transactions all surged significantly. Policy inquiries focused on core topics such as pre-sale school enrollment eligibility, online contract-based school enrollment, and trade-in policy subsidies. The overall market demonstrated a positive trend of "rising volume, stable prices, and active transactions." [Xiamen Introduces Six Housing Provident Fund Measures: "Sell Old, Buy New" Loans to Be Executed at First-Home Interest Rates] On May 19, the Xiamen Housing Provident Fund Center announced on its website that, in order to implement the spirit of the "Several Opinions on Further Promoting the Stable Development of the Real Estate Market" issued by the Fujian Provincial Department of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, and in light of Xiamen's actual conditions, the city introduced six housing provident fund measures upon approval by the Xiamen Housing Provident Fund Management Committee. Among them, it was proposed that "sell old, buy new" loans be executed at first-home interest rates. If a depositor sells a self-owned property within Fujian Province and purchases a second self-occupied property in Xiamen within 12 months, and applies for a housing provident fund loan that meets the lending conditions, the loan will be executed at the first-home housing provident fund loan interest rate. Housing provident fund loans for multi-child families are executed at first-home loan interest rates. For multi-child families purchasing a second owner-occupied home in the city and applying for housing provident fund loans, those meeting the provident fund loan conditions will have loans executed at first-home housing provident fund loan interest rates. [Hunan Issued Policies to Support Acquisition of Existing Commercial Housing and Housing "Trade-in"] On May 13, the Hunan Provincial Department of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, together with nine departments including the Provincial Development and Reform Commission and the Provincial Department of Finance, issued the "Several Measures of Hunan Province to Further Promote Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market." This "New Xiang Ten Measures" is an optimization and upgrade based on the 2025 "Several Measures of Hunan Province to Promote Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market," focusing on formulating relevant support measures in areas such as acquisition of existing commercial housing, housing "trade-in," "quality housing" construction, "three-in-one" housing projects, and provident fund policy optimization. The "New Xiang Ten Measures" specified that for loans applied for purchasing newly-built commercial housing within the province (including housing provident fund loans and commercial loans), housing unit counts are determined at the county/city/district (park) level; for those already owning housing in the county/city/district (park) where the intended purchase is located, one housing unit is deducted from the count; the minimum down payment ratio of 30% for commercial property loans is implemented. [Hunan: College Graduates and High-level Talents Staying in or Coming to Hunan for Employment and Entrepreneurship Can Apply for Loans After 1 Month of Provident Fund Contributions] On May 13, the Hunan Provincial Department of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and eight other departments issued the "Several Measures of Hunan Province to Further Promote Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market." The "New Xiang Ten Measures" proposed that for college graduates, young talents, and high-level talents staying in or coming to Hunan who apply for housing provident fund loans for their first home purchase within the province, they can apply after only 1 month of contributions, with maximum preferential down payment ratios, and the maximum loan amount may not be linked to account balances but reasonably determined based on work compensation base and labor (employment) contract duration. Among them, the maximum housing provident fund loan amount for high-level talents can be relaxed to 4 times the standard, and for college graduates and young talents staying in or coming to Hunan for employment and entrepreneurship, it can be relaxed to 2 times. For first-marriage and first-birth families and families with two or more children using housing provident fund loans to purchase newly-built commercial housing, the loan amount cap is further increased by more than 30%. The age limit for housing provident fund personal loans is extended, with a maximum of 5 years added beyond the statutory retirement age. [A Residential Land Parcel in Nanchang Sold at 12.5% Premium] On May 8, Nanchang sold a residential land parcel with a transfer area of 12.1409 mu and a planned building area of 9,712.72 sqm, with a floor area ratio of 1.1. The starting land price was 4 million yuan/mu, totaling a starting price of 48.56 million yuan, with a starting floor price of 5,000 yuan/sqm. Ultimately, Yingtan Wanjing Real Estate Development Co., Ltd. won the land parcel at a land price of 4.5 million yuan per mu, equivalent to a total price of 54.63 million yuan, with a transaction floor price of 5,625 yuan/㎡ and a premium rate of 12.5%. [Beijing Real Estate Market Activity Climbs, Pre-owned Home Trading Volume Hits Nearly 5-Year High] During this year's Labour Day holiday, as new real estate policies were intensively rolled out in multiple cities, real estate market activity climbed. In Beijing, the pre-owned housing market continued the momentum since April, with trading volume and showing volume rising steadily. The latest data showed that during the first four days of the Labour Day holiday, the number of pre-owned home transactions in Beijing surged 72% YoY, indicating strong market performance. In April, which just ended, Beijing's pre-owned home trading volume reached nearly 18,000 units, hitting the highest level for the same period in nearly five years. [Guangzhou Labour Day Holiday New Residential Subscription Volume Up Over 50% YoY] On May 6, it was learned from the Guangzhou Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau that during the Labour Day holiday, Guangzhou's real estate market activity rebounded significantly, with both new and pre-owned residential markets improving in tandem and a clear recovery trend in the property market. Data showed that from May 1 to 5, the new residential market in Guangzhou heated up notably, with a citywide daily average of 8,692 visits to new residential projects (up 30.8% YoY) and a daily average subscription volume of 634 units (up 50.1% YoY). The pre-owned residential market maintained steady growth. During the holiday, daily average showings and daily average subscription volume grew 15.6% and 5.2% respectively compared with April, while subscription volume was up 63.4% YoY. Meanwhile, new listing volume of pre-owned homes pulled back somewhat. A spokesperson from the Guangzhou Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau stated that on April 30, Guangzhou issued implementation guidelines on further promoting stable and healthy development of the real estate market, proposing multiple measures covering areas such as optimizing housing provident fund usage and facilitating property swap chains. The policy dividends were quickly transmitted, and market response was evident. [Zhongshan, Guangdong: Pre-owned Housing Acquired by Developers Can Be Resold; Minimum Down Payment for Commercial Property Loans Set at 30%] The Zhongshan Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau of Guangdong Province issued the "Several Measures for Continuously Promoting Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market in Zhongshan" to further implement the digestion of existing housing inventory and optimize incremental housing supply, and to better meet residents' essential and upgrading housing needs. The "Several Measures" comprised seven articles, including continuing to support residential housing trade-in policies; encouraging market-oriented operation of commodity housing trade-in programs; increasing housing provident fund support for home purchases; optimizing the criteria for determining the number of housing units under provident fund loans; accelerating destocking of commercial properties and encouraging multiple approaches to revitalize existing resources; increasing financial support and lowering the minimum down payment ratio for commercial property purchase loans; and piloting housing voucher-based resettlement compensation. Among them, the Several Measures stipulate that repurchased old housing can be resold, renovated and then sold, or used for market-oriented rental housing, talent apartments, affordable rental housing, etc. The minimum down payment ratio for commercial property purchase loans was adjusted to no less than 30%. [China Real Estate News: Stabilizing the Property Market Requires Good "Forward Planning"] On May 4, China Real Estate News published an editorial stating that amid complex and volatile internal and external shocks, the property market's performance since the beginning of this year was hard-won, and will lay a solid foundation and inject firm confidence for efforts to stabilize the real estate market. Therefore, the upcoming months of May and June are crucial, and localities should continue to do good "forward planning." The more detailed and thorough the work on "forward planning" for stabilizing the real estate market, the more solid the foundation for market stability. The stability and vitality of the property market should be reflected in the transformation of "good housing" toward higher quality, and the innovation momentum of "good housing" should be further released and continuously expanded. The stability and vitality of the property market should also be reflected in the overall satisfaction of demand, and the housing replacement cycle should be further facilitated. The core value of the housing trade-in policy lies in breaking this deadlock through institutional innovation. Localities should build bridges between old housing disposal and new housing purchase through government guidance, state-owned enterprise participation, and market-based operations, both facilitating the replacement process and reassuring buyers of price stability. Meanwhile, financial support will be increased for converting existing commercial housing into affordable housing, resettlement housing, dormitories, and talent housing. This will provide stable absorption channels for inventory to accelerate market clearing, effectively broaden the supply sources of affordable housing, shorten construction cycles, and address the housing difficulties of key groups such as low- and middle-income groups, new urban residents, and young people at relatively low social costs, forming an overall favorable landscape where new housing is well managed, second-hand housing is active, and the high-end has a market, the mid-end has support, and the low-end has guarantees, building momentum for real estate market stability and high-quality development. [Suzhou: Raising Maximum Housing Provident Fund Loan Limits, with Individual Maximum Loan Amount Adjusted to 1.5 Million Yuan] Suzhou recently issued several measures to further promote stable and healthy development of the real estate market. Among them, it mentioned optimizing the criteria for determining the number of provident fund loans and housing units, with first-home provident fund loan policies applied when applicants have no outstanding provident fund loan balance nationwide. The maximum provident fund loan limits were raised, with the individual maximum loan amount adjusted to 1.5 million yuan and the family maximum loan amount adjusted to 2 million yuan. For purchases of newly built green residential buildings rated two-star or above, the provident fund loan amount can be increased by 20%; for purchases of newly built "dual-smart and fully-equipped" improved housing, the provident fund loan amount can be increased by 50%. For purchases of newly built commercial housing projects sold as completed properties, the provident fund loan amount can be increased by 50%. Provident fund loans can be applied for when purchasing completed property-right apartments. [Wuhan Announces New Property Market Policies, Expanding the Scope of Cross-City Housing Provident Fund Loans] On April 30, the Wuhan Housing and Urban Renewal Bureau, Wuhan Municipal Finance Bureau, and Wuhan Housing Provident Fund Management Center issued the Notice on Further Optimizing and Improving the City's Real Estate Policy Measures. The notice proposed that from May 1 to December 31, 2026, when resident families apply for commercial personal housing loans to purchase newly built commercial housing, if family members have no complete housing units in the district where the intended new commercial housing is located, the purchase will be recognized as the family's first home. Employees contributing to provident funds in cities nationwide who purchase self-owned housing in Wuhan or have outstanding commercial housing loans may apply for housing provident fund loans from the Wuhan Provident Fund Center, with the restriction requiring borrowers (including spouses) to hold Wuhan household registration removed. [Zhanjiang Optimizes Property Market Policies: Housing Purchase Subsidies and Provident Fund Loan Limits Increased] According to the Zhanjiang Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau, to adapt to the new situation in the real estate market, Zhanjiang introduced the "Zhanjiang Seven Measures" policy aimed at promoting housing absorption and optimizing supply. The policies include raising housing provident fund loan limits, with the maximum loan amount for homebuyers reaching 1.2 million yuan, and military families eligible for an additional 200,000 yuan in loans; implementing housing purchase subsidies, with buyers eligible for subsidies of up to 20,000 yuan. The policies also cover reducing real estate enterprises' operating costs, optimizing residential design, streamlining approval processes, and supporting the sound development of the real estate industry and urban construction. The policies take effect immediately and are valid for three years. [Tianjin Optimizes Real Estate Supply to Promote Housing Consumption] Tianjin issued a notice on optimizing the city's real estate supply to promote housing consumption. It mentioned using special bond funds to reclaim and repurchase existing idle land. Enterprises are supported in advancing the continued development of real estate projects through reasonable optimization of design requirements and other means. Business entities that repurchase existing commercial housing for use as rental housing may enjoy preferential tax policies related to housing rental if they meet the conditions. For cases where existing commercial housing is certified as being converted into allocation-based affordable rental housing, the land use nature will not be changed within the original land use period, no supplementary land price will be required, and preferential pricing policies for water, electricity, gas, and heating will be enjoyed in accordance with national and municipal regulations. The national tax policy supporting residents' housing replacement purchases is implemented. From January 1, 2026 to December 31, 2027, taxpayers who sell self-owned housing within Tianjin and repurchase housing in Tianjin within one year after the sale of their current housing will be eligible for a refund of the individual income tax already paid on the sale of their current housing. [Shenzhen Municipal Housing and Construction Bureau Issues Notice on Further Optimizing and Adjusting the City's Real Estate-Related Policies] On April 29, the Shenzhen Municipal Housing and Construction Bureau issued a notice to further optimize real estate regulatory policies. Regarding purchase restrictions, eligible resident families may purchase one additional housing unit within the areas of Futian, Nanshan, and Xin'an Sub-district in Bao'an; non-Shenzhen-registered families holding valid residence permits may also purchase one unit in the above areas. Regarding provident funds, the maximum family loan amount was raised to 1.3 million yuan, with first-home buyers and multi-child families eligible for a maximum increase of 70%. The new policy takes effect from May 29. [Zhuhai Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau and Five Other Departments Optimize and Adjust the City's Real Estate Policy Measures] The Zhuhai Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau and five other departments issued a notice on optimizing and adjusting the city's real estate policy measures. The notice proposed optimizing housing provident fund loan policies. First, raising housing provident fund loan limits. For those eligible for provident fund loans, the maximum housing provident fund personal housing loan amounts for single- and dual-contributor employee families were adjusted from 800,000 yuan to 1 million yuan and from 1.3 million yuan to 1.5 million yuan, respectively. Second, expanding the scope of housing purchase support for multi-child families. When multi-child families apply for provident fund loans to purchase a second self-occupied housing unit, the loan amount may be increased by 20% above the eligible loan amount, but shall not exceed the city's maximum provident fund loan limit. Third, raising the loan amount increase ratio for purchasing green buildings. When contributing employees purchase commercial housing that meets the national two-star green building standard or commercial housing in certified prefabricated building projects, the loan amount may be increased by 20% above the eligible loan amount, but shall not exceed the city's maximum provident fund loan limit; for purchases of commercial housing meeting the national three-star green building standard, the loan amount may be increased by 30% above the eligible loan amount, but shall not exceed the city's maximum provident fund loan limit. [Foshan Launches Commercial Housing "Trade-in" Program! First Batch Involves 22 Projects] Recently, the Notice of the Foshan Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau on Organizing the First Batch of Commercial Housing "Trade-in" Program was officially released. This is not a simple encouragement document; it is a solution that systematically unblocks replacement bottlenecks through model innovation and a policy package. It promotes the real estate market's transition from "one-sided transactions" to a "virtuous cycle between existing and incremental housing," achieving multi-party wins for residents, enterprises, and the market. The innovation of Foshan's trade-in policy lies in introducing multiple real estate enterprises to participate jointly: Foshan Anju, Chancheng Anju, Nanhai Youju, Shunde Chengtie, Gaoming Airport Construction, and Sanshui Anju serve as repurchasing entities; Foshan Chengfa, Foshan Urban Renewal, Foshan Lianzhi, Heyue Yaji, Shunkong Chengtou, Yongdeli Commerce, Sanshui Chanfa, and Miaohui Real Estate provide new housing sources. This model determines old housing value through negotiation and sets a "contract termination protection period" to avoid blindly pushing for lower prices, thereby completing the "sell old, buy new" closed loop and serving as a market stabilizer. Voices from Various Parties BOC International Securities believes the real estate industry is at an important window where fundamentals and market expectations are resonating in recovery. Current policies continue to exert force, with first-tier cities optimizing purchase and loan restrictions and core cities optimizing provident fund policies, all of which have had a certain effect on releasing genuine housing demand, with some first-tier city property markets seeing a sustained two-month recovery. In the short term, the window of resonance between policy and high-frequency transaction improvement remains, and it is necessary to track whether the subsequent transaction recovery trend can continue, which will depend on inventory destocking progress and whether prices stabilize. From an investment perspective, most real estate enterprises made relatively large impairment provisions in 2025, and may consolidate at lows in 2026, so sector profit margins and performance may rebound in 2027, potentially leading to improved market valuations for 27E in Q4 this year. In addition, some commercial property holding companies have already positioned themselves ahead in new business formats, new models, and new scenarios, and are better positioned to seize opportunities in the new consumption era. A China Post Securities research report shows that in the phase where policy and high-frequency transactions are "resonating but not fully," the industry's β remains constrained by the verification progress of "destocking and price stabilization." The pattern of second-hand housing recovering first while new housing lags continues, and capital in the secondary market continues to favor assets with α characteristics (those deeply rooted in core cities, with precise land acquisition, and strong product and operational capabilities). Although there is policy support and improvement in the second-hand housing chain in core cities, land and new construction starts remain weak, and fluctuations in net financing suggest that industry clearing has not concluded, and β rallies remain susceptible to data disturbances. Against this backdrop, China Post Securities recommends focusing on China Resources Land, China Overseas Land & Investment, China Jinmao, Poly Property and China Merchants Shekou. Huayuan Securities' research report believes that in 2026, three major trends are worth anticipating: 1) The real estate adjustment is expected to near its end: reviewing real estate crises in major global economies, the average decline was 35% with an average adjustment period of 6 years, and the length and depth of China's actual housing price adjustment have already been relatively sufficient. 2) Structural opportunities in "good housing": China's real estate market has entered a phase of structural differentiation, with the central government frequently mentioning the construction of good housing. Under the catalyst of policy orientation and changes in supply-demand structure, high-grade residential properties may usher in a development wave. 3) Hong Kong property market recovery continues: driven by multiple favorable factors, market sentiment in Hong Kong's private residential market has gradually recovered, and they believe Hong Kong-based developers are expected to see a new round of value re-rating. They maintain a "bullish" rating on real estate. A CITIC Securities research report stated that in April, the floor space of commercial buildings sold nationwide fell 9.5% YoY, with the decline widening 2.1 percentage points from March; sales revenue fell 7.6% YoY, with the decline narrowing 5.7 percentage points from March. New and second-hand housing prices continued to adjust. In April, the MoM decline in the price indices of newly built commercial residential housing and second-hand residential housing across 70 large and medium-sized cities nationwide remained flat MoM. Second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities all rose, with second-hand residential prices in Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou up 0.7%, 0.4%, 0.3%, and 0.2% MoM, respectively. First-tier city property markets continued to recover, and the real estate market is gradually stopping its decline and stabilizing. They are bullish on Hong Kong, commercial properties, and quality enterprises focused on core city tracks.

SMM News, May 28: Recently, multiple regions across China released policies to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. Provinces and cities including Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Xiamen, Hunan, and Suzhou successively optimized property market regulation details, including measures such as relaxing provident fund loan conditions, raising loan limits, advancing state-owned enterprise acquisition of existing second-hand housing, and implementing housing "trade-in" policies, which are expected to gradually activate housing replacement demand and revitalize existing housing stock. As policy effects gradually materialized, transaction activity in core cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen recovered, real estate enterprises' financing environment showed marginal improvement, and industry fundamentals saw slight repair. Boosted by both policies and fundamentals, coupled with some capital reallocation, the real estate sector posted a counter-trend rally. As of the market close on May 28, the real estate development sector rose 0.99%, and real estate services rose 1.39%. In terms of individual stocks: Beichen Property, Tianjian Group, Xiangjiang Holdings, Vantone Development and other stocks hit the daily limit, while Xinhuangpu, Jintou Chengkai, Black Peony, Yue Hong Yuan A, and Worldunion all ranked among the top gainers. News [The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee Held a Meeting to Analyze and Study the Current Economic Situation and Economic Work] The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on April 28 to analyze and study the current economic situation and economic work. Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee, presided over the meeting. The meeting noted that since the beginning of this year, the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core has strengthened overall leadership over economic work, taking a holistic and forward-looking approach. All regions and departments have acted proactively and adopted comprehensive measures. China's economy got off to a strong start, with major indicators performing better than expectations, demonstrating strong resilience and vitality. At the same time, there are some difficulties and challenges, and the foundation for sustained and steady economic improvement needs to be further consolidated. Confidence should be strengthened, and economic work should be pursued with greater intensity and more practical measures. The meeting pointed out the need to effectively prevent and defuse risks in key areas. Efforts should be made to stabilize the real estate market and solidly advance urban renewal. Local government debt risks should be resolved in an orderly manner, with a focus on addressing the issue of overdue payments to enterprises. Reform of small and medium-sized financial institutions should be promoted, and confidence in the capital market should be stabilized and strengthened. [Huang Guanglie, Deputy Secretary General of Guangzhou Municipal Government: Confident in Further Consolidating the Stabilizing and Improving Trend of Guangzhou's Property Market] On May 26, Guangzhou held a press conference on the series of supporting documents for the "Implementation Opinions on Further Promoting the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market." Huang Guanglie, Deputy Secretary General of Guangzhou Municipal Government, stated that going forward, Guangzhou will continue to improve the two major systems of the housing market and housing security, and continuously optimize property market regulation measures. Departments including the Municipal Bureau of Planning and Natural Resources, the Municipal Bureau of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, and the Municipal Provident Fund Center have issued supporting rules on matters such as land supply, special subsidies for "sell-old-buy-new," and "commercial-to-provident fund loan conversion." Huadu District responded swiftly by launching the "Huadu Eight Measures" as specific initiatives. State-owned enterprises represented by Guangzhou Anju Group are accelerating the launch of pilot work on second-hand housing acquisition and revitalization. We believe that as these detailed rules are fully implemented and various sectors advance in coordination, we are confident in further consolidating the stabilizing and improving trend of Guangzhou's property market. (Jin10 Data APP) [Guangzhou's Real Estate Market Activity Has Been Continuously Rising Since May] On May 26, Guangzhou held a press conference on the series of supporting documents for the "Implementation Opinions on Further Promoting the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market." Huang Guanglie, Deputy Secretary General of the Guangzhou Municipal Government, introduced that on April 30, Guangzhou issued the "Implementation Opinions on Further Promoting the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market" (known as the "Sui Eight Measures"). As the policy effects continued to release, market activity has been continuously rising. Since May, weekly visits, subscriptions, and online signings at key new residential projects citywide increased by 26.9%, 36.9%, and 11.4% WoW respectively; weekly signing volume of second-hand residential properties rose 9.3% WoW, while new listing volume decreased 16.7% YoY. The new housing provident fund policy has taken effect, with 4,484 loan applications accepted totaling 4.746 billion yuan, up 47.05% and 56.43% YoY respectively. [Guangzhou: Removes Restrictions on "Only Housing in the City" and Number of Provident Fund Loan Uses] On May 26, 2026, the Guangzhou Housing Provident Fund Management Center issued the normative document "Implementation Measures for Converting Commercial Personal Housing Loans to Housing Provident Fund Personal Housing Loans in Guangzhou (Provisional)." It proposed expanding the scope of commercial loan banks by removing the restriction that "the original commercial loan bank must be a housing provident fund entrusted bank," allowing commercial loans from non-housing provident fund handling banks to be converted to pure housing provident fund loans. It relaxed requirements on loan types, terms, and provident fund contribution duration. For commercial-to-provident-fund conversion business handled by housing provident fund loan handling banks, applicants whose convertible loan amount is not enough to fully repay the original commercial loan principal and interest may choose to convert to a combination loan. The requirement for account opening and cumulative housing provident fund contribution duration was reduced from "60 months" to "36 months." The original commercial loan disbursement period was shortened from "more than 3 years" to "more than 2 years." The restrictions on "only housing in the city" and the number of provident fund loan uses were removed, no longer requiring that "the loan property is the applicant's family's only housing in the city," supporting applications for first and second improved housing. Applicants who "have never used or have only used housing provident fund loans once" may also apply for commercial-to-provident-fund conversion, no longer subject to the restriction of "never having used housing provident fund loans." (Jin10 Data) [Xiong'an New Area: Maximum Housing Provident Fund Loan Amount Raised to 800,000 Yuan] Notice from the Xiong'an New Area Housing Management Center on Optimizing and Adjusting Housing Provident Fund Withdrawal and Loan Policies. The policy stated that for depositors meeting the rental housing withdrawal conditions in the New Area who have not registered their housing lease contracts, the maximum annual withdrawal amount was raised to 17,000 yuan; for those who have registered their housing lease contracts on the "Hebei Xiong'an New Area Housing Rental Information Service Platform," the maximum annual withdrawal amount was raised to 25,000 yuan. For depositors purchasing owner-occupied housing in the New Area and applying for housing provident fund loans, the maximum loan amount was raised to 800,000 yuan. For employees of entities relocated from Beijing whose housing provident fund contributions are deposited in the New Area, the maximum loan amount for purchasing owner-occupied housing in the New Area was raised to 1.2 million yuan. For families with two or more children purchasing owner-occupied housing in the New Area and applying for housing provident fund loans, the maximum loan amount was increased by an additional 200,000 yuan. For employee households with only one housing provident fund loan record nationwide that has been fully repaid and who have no property in the New Area, the first-home housing provident fund loan policy shall apply. (Xiong'an Provident Fund) [Supreme Court's Liu Guixiang: Preventing and Mitigating Risks in Key Areas Such as Finance and Real Estate] On May 27, Liu Guixiang, Vice-Ministerial-Level Full-Time Member of the Adjudication Committee and Second-Grade Grand Justice of the Supreme People's Court, stated at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that the people's courts would fully safeguard national security and social stability, lawfully punish criminal acts that endanger national security and public safety and undermine the socialist market economic order, and adhere to the principles of marketization and rule of law, coordinating the functions of administrative, civil, and criminal adjudication to prevent and mitigate risks in key areas such as finance and real estate. [China Index Academy: Property Developer Bond Financing up Nearly 30% YoY in April] The latest data released by the China Index Academy showed that in April, total bond financing in the real estate sector reached 61.48 billion yuan, up 28.8% YoY and up 18.5% MoM. Specifically, credit bond financing in the real estate sector totaled 37.48 billion yuan (up 2.6% YoY, down 9.1% MoM), accounting for 61%; ex-China bond financing was 3.43 billion yuan, accounting for 5.6%; ABS financing was 20.57 billion yuan (up 83.9% YoY, up 93.1% MoM), accounting for 33.5%. [Marco Polo: Q2 Sales Improved QoQ] Marco Polo stated at a recent earnings briefing that in Q1 2026, due to the late Chinese New Year holiday and a slow market start, the industry experienced a certain degree of YoY decline overall. Since Q2, the real estate market in some cities has shown structural stabilization and recovery, with the new housing market broadly stopping its decline. Core cities such as Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou saw second-hand housing prices begin to rise, with active transactions. The company improved its Q2 sales on a QoQ basis through various measures, including building regional empowerment centers, promoting the expansion of its dealer network into lower-tier markets, developing non-residential engineering projects, and strengthening cooperation with whole-house decoration enterprises. [Guangzhou Anju Group to Launch Pilot Work Supporting Residents in "Selling Old and Buying New"] On May 26, Guangzhou held a press conference on the supporting documents for the "Implementation Opinions on Further Promoting the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market." Qian Zhe, Deputy Secretary of the Party Committee and General Manager of Guangzhou Anju Group, stated that to support residents in improving their housing conditions and facilitate the exchange chain between pre-owned and new housing, Anju Group will immediately launch pilot work supporting residents in "selling old and buying new," with a trial period ending on December 31, 2026. Following the principle of "government guidance, market-based operation, and voluntary participation," the group will acquire pre-owned residential properties through market-oriented approaches. The pilot acquisition targets pre-owned residential properties within Guangzhou's Ring Expressway, with a total price of no more than 3 million yuan, a floor area of less than 70 m², and no restriction on building age. The acquired properties will be prioritized for use as affordable housing, talent apartments, and other purposes, primarily serving the housing needs of new urban residents, young people, and other groups, as well as resident relocation for urban self-renewal projects. [Guangzhou Huadu District Sees "Rising Volume, Stable Prices, and Active Transactions" After New Policy Implementation] On May 26, Guangzhou held a press conference on the supporting documents for the "Implementation Opinions on Further Promoting the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market." Mai Shaoming, Deputy District Head of Huadu District, stated that after the implementation of the "Eight Measures for Guangzhou," Huadu District took the lead in the city by introducing the "Eight Measures for Huadu." Since the new policy took effect, the real estate market in Huadu District has seen a continued rebound in market activity and a steady release of transaction vitality. Project visits, subscriptions, policy inquiries, and pre-owned housing transactions all surged significantly. Policy inquiries focused on core topics such as pre-sale school enrollment eligibility, online contract registration for school enrollment, and trade-in subsidies. The market overall demonstrated a positive trend of "rising volume, stable prices, and active transactions." [Xiamen Introduces Six Housing Provident Fund Measures: "Sell Old, Buy New" Loans to Be Executed at First-Home Interest Rates] On May 19, the Xiamen Housing Provident Fund Center announced on its website that, in order to implement the spirit of the "Several Opinions on Further Promoting the Stable Development of the Real Estate Market" issued by the Fujian Provincial Department of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, and in light of Xiamen's actual conditions, the city introduced six housing provident fund measures upon approval by the Xiamen Housing Provident Fund Management Committee. Among them, it was proposed that "sell old, buy new" loans be executed at first-home interest rates. Depositors who sell their own residential properties within Fujian Province and purchase a second self-occupied residential property in Xiamen within 12 months and apply for a housing provident fund loan shall, if they meet the provident fund loan conditions, be subject to the first-home housing provident fund loan interest rate. Housing provident fund loans for multi-child families are executed at first-home loan interest rates. For multi-child families purchasing a second owner-occupied home in the city and applying for housing provident fund loans, those meeting the provident fund loan conditions will have loans executed at first-home housing provident fund loan interest rates. [Hunan Issued Policies Supporting Acquisition of Existing Commercial Housing and Housing "Trade-in"] On May 13, the Hunan Provincial Department of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, together with the Provincial Development and Reform Commission, the Provincial Department of Finance, and six other departments, issued the "Several Measures of Hunan Province to Further Promote Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market." This "New Xiang Ten Measures" is an optimization and upgrade based on the 2025 "Several Measures of Hunan Province to Promote Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market," focusing on formulating relevant support measures in areas such as acquisition of existing commercial housing, housing "trade-in," "quality housing" construction, "three-in-one" housing projects, and optimization of provident fund policies. The "New Xiang Ten Measures" specified that for loans applied for purchasing newly-built commercial housing within the province (including housing provident fund loans and commercial loans), housing unit counts are determined at the county/city/district (park) level, and for those already owning housing in the county/city/district (park) where the intended purchase is located, one housing unit is deducted from the count; the minimum down payment ratio of 30% for commercial property loans is implemented. [Hunan: College Graduates and High-level Talents Staying in or Coming to Hunan for Employment and Entrepreneurship Can Apply for Loans After 1 Month of Provident Fund Contributions] On May 13, the Hunan Provincial Department of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and eight other departments issued the "Several Measures of Hunan Province to Further Promote Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market." The "New Xiang Ten Measures" proposed that for college graduates, young talents, and high-level talents staying in or coming to Hunan who apply for housing provident fund loans for their first home purchase within the province, they can apply after only 1 month of contributions, with maximum preferential down payment ratios, and the maximum loan amount may not be linked to account balances but reasonably determined based on work compensation base and labor (employment) contract duration. Among them, the maximum housing provident fund loan amount for high-level talents can be relaxed to 4 times the standard, and for college graduates and young talents staying in or coming to Hunan for employment and entrepreneurship, it can be relaxed to 2 times. For first-marriage and first-birth families and families with two or more children using housing provident fund loans to purchase newly-built commercial housing, the loan amount cap is further increased by more than 30%. The age limit for housing provident fund personal loans is extended, with a maximum increase of 5 years beyond the statutory retirement age. [A Residential Land Parcel in Nanchang Sold at 12.5% Premium] On May 8, Nanchang sold a residential land parcel with a transfer area of 12.1409 mu and a planned building area of 9,712.72 sqm, with a floor area ratio of 1.1. The starting land price was 4 million yuan/mu, totaling a starting price of 48.56 million yuan, with a starting floor price of 5,000 yuan/sqm. Yingtan Wanjing Real Estate Development Co., Ltd. ultimately won the land parcel at a land price of 4.5 million yuan/mu, equivalent to a total price of 54.63 million yuan, with a transaction floor price of 5,625 yuan/㎡ and a premium rate of 12.5%. [Beijing Real Estate Market Activity Climbs, Pre-owned Home Trading Volume Hits Nearly 5-Year High] During this year's Labour Day holiday, as new real estate policies were intensively implemented in multiple cities, real estate market activity climbed. In Beijing, the pre-owned housing market continued the momentum since April, with trading volume and showing volume rising steadily. The latest data showed that during the first four days of the Labour Day holiday, the number of pre-owned home transactions in Beijing surged 72% YoY, indicating strong market performance. In April, which just passed, Beijing's pre-owned home trading volume reached nearly 18,000 units, hitting the highest level for the same period in nearly 5 years. [Guangzhou Labour Day Holiday New Residential Subscription Volume Up Over 50% YoY] On May 6, it was learned from the Guangzhou Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau that during the Labour Day holiday, Guangzhou's real estate market activity rebounded significantly, with both new and pre-owned residential markets improving in tandem and a clear recovery trend in the property market. Data showed that from May 1 to 5, the new residential market in Guangzhou heated up significantly, with a citywide daily average of 8,692 visitor groups to new residential projects (up 30.8% YoY), and a daily average subscription volume of 634 units (up 50.1% YoY). The pre-owned residential market maintained steady growth. During the holiday, daily average showing visits and daily average subscription volume grew 15.6% and 5.2% respectively compared to April, while subscription volume was up 63.4% YoY. Meanwhile, new listing volume of pre-owned homes pulled back. A spokesperson from the Guangzhou Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau stated that on April 30, Guangzhou issued implementation opinions on further promoting stable and healthy development of the real estate market, proposing multiple measures covering areas such as optimizing housing provident fund usage and facilitating property swap chains. The policy dividends were quickly transmitted, with notable market feedback. [Guangdong Zhongshan: Pre-owned Housing Acquired by Developers Can Be Resold; Minimum Down Payment for Commercial Property Loans Set at 30%] The Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau of Zhongshan City, Guangdong Province, issued the "Several Measures for Continuously Promoting Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market in Zhongshan" to further implement the digestion of existing housing inventory and optimize incremental housing supply, better meeting residents' essential and upgrading housing needs. The "Several Measures" comprised 7 articles, including continuing to support residential housing trade-in policies; encouraging market-oriented operation of commodity housing trade-in programs; increasing housing provident fund support for home purchases; optimizing the criteria for determining the number of housing units under provident fund loans; accelerating destocking of commercial properties and encouraging multiple approaches to revitalize existing resources; increasing financial support and lowering the minimum down payment ratio for commercial property purchase loans; and piloting housing voucher-based resettlement compensation. Among them, the Several Measures stipulate that repurchased old housing can be resold, renovated and then sold, or used for market-oriented rental housing, talent apartments, affordable rental housing, etc. The minimum down payment ratio for commercial property purchase loans was adjusted to no less than 30%. [ China Real Estate News: Stabilizing the Property Market Requires Good "Forward Planning" ] On May 4, China Real Estate News published an editorial stating that amid complex and volatile internal and external shocks, the property market's performance since the beginning of this year was hard-won, and will lay a solid foundation and inject firm confidence for efforts to stabilize the real estate market. Therefore, the upcoming months of May and June are crucial, and localities should continue to do good "forward planning." The more detailed and thorough the forward planning work for stabilizing the real estate market, the more solid the foundation for market stability. The stability and vitality of the property market should be reflected in the transformation of "good housing" toward higher quality, and the innovation momentum of "good housing" should be further released and continuously expanded. The stability and vitality of the property market should also be reflected in the overall satisfaction of demand, and the housing replacement cycle should be further facilitated. The core value of the housing trade-in policy is precisely to break this deadlock through institutional innovation. Localities should focus on building bridges between old housing disposal and new housing purchase through government guidance, state-owned enterprise participation, and market-based operations, both facilitating the replacement process and reassuring homebuyers about price stability. Meanwhile, financial support will be increased for converting existing commercial housing into affordable housing, resettlement housing, dormitories, and talent housing. This will both provide stable absorption channels for inventory to accelerate market clearing, and effectively broaden the supply sources of affordable housing, shorten the construction preparation cycle, and solve the housing difficulties of key groups such as low- and middle-income groups, new urban residents, and young people at relatively low social costs, forming an overall favorable pattern where new housing is well managed, second-hand housing is active, and the high-end has a market, the mid-end has support, and the low-end has guarantees, building momentum for the stability and high-quality development of the real estate market. [ Suzhou: Raising Maximum Housing Provident Fund Loan Limits, with Individual Maximum Loan Amount Adjusted to 1.5 Million Yuan ] Suzhou recently issued several measures to further promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. Among them, it mentioned optimizing the criteria for determining the number of provident fund loans and housing units. If the applicant has no outstanding provident fund loan balance nationwide at the time of application, the first-home provident fund loan policy applies. The maximum provident fund loan limits were raised, with the individual maximum loan amount adjusted to 1.5 million yuan and the family maximum loan amount adjusted to 2 million yuan. For purchases of newly built green residential buildings rated two-star or above, the provident fund loan amount can be increased by 20%. For purchases of newly built improved-type housing with "two-smart-one-complete" features, the provident fund loan amount can be increased by 50%. For purchases of newly built commercial housing projects sold as completed properties, the provident fund loan amount can be increased by 50%. Provident fund loans can be applied for when purchasing completed property-right apartments sold as existing homes. [ Wuhan Announces New Property Market Policies, Expanding the Scope of Cross-Regional Housing Provident Fund Loans ] On April 30, the Wuhan Housing and Urban Renewal Bureau, the Wuhan Finance Bureau, and the Wuhan Housing Provident Fund Management Center issued the Notice on Further Optimizing and Improving Real Estate Policy Measures in the City. The notice proposed that from May 1 to December 31, 2026, when a resident family applies for a commercial personal housing loan to purchase newly built commercial housing, if no family member owns a complete housing unit in the district where the intended new commercial housing is located, it shall be recognized as the family's first home. Employees contributing to provident funds in cities nationwide who purchase their own housing in Wuhan or have outstanding commercial housing loans may apply for housing provident fund loans from the Wuhan Provident Fund Center, with the restriction requiring the borrower (including spouse) to hold Wuhan household registration being removed. [ Zhanjiang Optimizes Property Market Policies: Housing Purchase Subsidies and Provident Fund Loan Limits Increased ] According to the Zhanjiang Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau, to adapt to the new situation in the real estate market, Zhanjiang introduced the "Zhanjiang Seven Measures" policy aimed at promoting housing absorption and optimizing supply. The policy includes raising housing provident fund loan limits, with homebuyers eligible for a maximum loan of 1.2 million yuan, and military families eligible for an additional 200,000 yuan in loans. A housing purchase subsidy was implemented, with buyers eligible for a maximum subsidy of 20,000 yuan. The policy also covers reducing operating costs for real estate enterprises, optimizing residential design, streamlining approval processes, and supporting the healthy development of the real estate industry and urban construction. The policy took effect immediately and is valid for three years. [ Tianjin Optimizes Real Estate Supply to Promote Housing Consumption ] Tianjin issued a notice on optimizing the city's real estate supply to promote housing consumption. It mentioned making good use of special bond funds to reclaim and repurchase existing idle land. Enterprises are supported in advancing the continued development of real estate projects through reasonable optimization of design requirements and other means. Business entities that repurchase existing commercial housing for use as rental housing may enjoy preferential tax policies related to housing rental if they meet the conditions. For cases where existing commercial housing is certified as being converted into allocation-based affordable rental housing, the land use nature will not be changed within the original land use period, no supplementary land price payments will be required, and preferential pricing policies for water, electricity, gas, and heating will be enjoyed in accordance with relevant national and municipal regulations. The national tax policy supporting residents' housing replacement purchases was implemented. From January 1, 2026 to December 31, 2027, taxpayers who sell their own housing within Tianjin and repurchase housing in Tianjin within one year after the sale of their current housing will be eligible for a refund of the individual income tax already paid on the sale of their current housing. [ Shenzhen Housing and Construction Bureau Issues Notice on Further Optimizing and Adjusting Real Estate Policies ] On April 29, the Shenzhen Housing and Construction Bureau issued a notice to further optimize real estate regulatory policies. Regarding purchase restrictions, eligible resident families may purchase one additional housing unit within Futian, Nanshan, and Xin'an Sub-district of Bao'an. Non-Shenzhen-registered families holding valid residence permits may also purchase one unit in the above areas. Regarding provident fund, the maximum family loan amount was raised to 1.3 million yuan, and first-home buyers and multi-child families may enjoy a maximum increase ratio of 70%. The new policy takes effect from May 28. [ Six Departments Including the Zhuhai Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau Optimize and Adjust the City's Real Estate Policy Measures ] Six departments including the Zhuhai Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau issued a notice on optimizing and adjusting the city's real estate policy measures. The notice proposed optimizing housing provident fund loan policies. First, raising housing provident fund loan limits. For those eligible for provident fund loans, the maximum housing provident fund personal housing loan amounts for single- and dual-contributor employee families were adjusted from 800,000 yuan to 1 million yuan and from 1.3 million yuan to 1.5 million yuan, respectively. Second, expanding the scope of home purchase support for multi-child families. When multi-child families apply for provident fund loans to purchase a second self-occupied housing unit, the loan amount may be increased by 20% above the eligible loan amount, but shall not exceed the city's maximum provident fund loan limit. Third, raising the increase ratio for loans for purchasing green buildings. When contributing employees purchase commercial housing that meets the national two-star green building standard or commercial housing in projects certified as prefabricated construction, the loan amount may be increased by 20% above the eligible loan amount, but shall not exceed the city's maximum provident fund loan limit. For purchases of commercial housing that meets the national three-star green building standard, the loan amount may be increased by 30% above the eligible loan amount, but shall not exceed the city's maximum provident fund loan limit. [ Foshan Launches Commercial Housing "Trade-in" Program! First Batch Involves 22 Projects ] Recently, the Notice of the Foshan Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau on Organizing the First Batch of Commercial Housing "Trade-in" Program was officially released. This is not a simple encouragement document; it is a solution that systematically unblocks replacement bottlenecks through model innovation and a policy package. It promotes the real estate market's transformation from "one-sided transactions" to a "virtuous cycle between existing and incremental housing," achieving a multi-party win for residents, enterprises, and the market. The innovation of Foshan's trade-in policy lies in introducing multiple real estate enterprises to participate jointly: Foshan Anju, Chancheng Anju, Nanhai Youju, Shunde Chengtie, Gaoming Airport Construction, and Sanshui Anju serve as the repurchasing entities, while Foshan Chengfa, Foshan Urban Renewal, Foshan Lianzhi, Heyue Yaji, Shunkong Chengtou, Yongdeli Trading, Sanshui Chanfa, and Miaohui Real Estate and other developers provide new housing sources. This model determines old housing value through negotiation, sets a "contract termination protection period" to avoid blindly pushing for lower prices, thereby completing the "sell old, buy new" closed loop and serving as a market stabilizer. Voices from Various Parties BOC International Securities believes the real estate industry is at an important window where fundamentals and market expectations are resonating in recovery. Current policies continue to exert force, with first-tier cities optimizing purchase and loan restrictions and core cities optimizing provident fund policies, all of which have had a certain effect on releasing genuine home purchase demand, with some first-tier city property markets showing a sustained two-month recovery. In the short term, the window of policy and high-frequency transaction improvement resonance remains, and it is necessary to track whether the subsequent transaction recovery trend can continue, which will depend on inventory destocking progress and whether prices stabilize. From an investment perspective, most real estate enterprises made relatively large impairment provisions in 2025, and may consolidate at lows in 2026, so sector profit margins and performance may rebound in 2027, leading to improved market views on 27E valuations in Q4 this year. In addition, some commercial property holding companies have already positioned themselves ahead in new business formats, new models, and new scenarios, and are better positioned to seize opportunities in the new consumption era. A China Post Securities research report shows that in the phase where policy and high-frequency transactions are "resonating but not fully," the industry's β remains constrained by the verification progress of "destocking and price stabilization." The pattern of second-hand housing recovering first while new housing lags continues, and capital in the secondary market continues to favor assets with α characteristics (those deeply rooted in core cities, with precise land acquisition, and strong product and operational capabilities). Although there is policy support and improvement in the second-hand housing chain in core cities, land and new construction starts remain weak, and fluctuations in net financing suggest that industry clearing has not concluded, and β rallies remain susceptible to data disturbances. Against this backdrop, China Post Securities recommends focusing on China Resources Land, China Overseas Land & Investment, China Jinmao, Poly Property and China Merchants Shekou. Huayuan Securities research report believes that in 2026, three major trends are worth looking forward to: 1) The real estate adjustment is expected to approach its end: reviewing real estate crises in major global economies, the average decline was 35% with an average adjustment period of 6 years, and the length and depth of China's actual housing price adjustment have already been relatively sufficient. 2) Structural opportunities in "good housing": China's real estate market has entered a phase of structural differentiation, with the central government frequently mentioning the construction of good housing. Under the catalyst of policy orientation and supply-demand structure changes, high-grade residential properties may usher in a wave of development. 3) Hong Kong property market recovery continues: driven by multiple favorable factors, market sentiment in Hong Kong's private residential market has gradually recovered, and it believes Hong Kong-based developers are expected to see a new round of value re-rating. It maintains a "bullish" rating on the real estate sector. A CITIC Securities research report stated that in April, the floor space of commercial buildings sold nationwide fell 9.5% YoY, with the decline widening 2.1 percentage points from March. Sales revenue fell 7.6% YoY, with the decline narrowing 5.7 percentage points from March. New and second-hand housing prices continued to adjust. In April, the MoM declines in the price indices of newly built commercial residential housing and second-hand residential housing across 70 major cities nationwide were flat MoM. Second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities all rose, with second-hand residential prices in Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou rising 0.7%, 0.4%, 0.3%, and

SMM News, May 26: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals mostly fell. SHFE copper dropped 0.3%. SHFE aluminum edged down. SHFE lead fell 0.15%, and SHFE zinc rose 0.52%. SHFE tin gained 1.37%. SHFE nickel declined 1.08%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures fell 0.26%, and the most-traded alumina futures rose 5.08%. The most-traded lithium carbonate futures dropped 1.83%. The most-traded silicon metal futures fell 0.52%. The most-traded polysilicon futures rose 0.53%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore dropped 1.82%, rebar fell 1.99%, hot-rolled coil declined 1.81%, and stainless steel edged down 0.03%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 6.05%, and the most-traded coke contract gained 2.54%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:45, LME metals mostly rose. LME copper gained 0.26%. LME aluminum edged up. LME lead rose 0.1%. LME zinc climbed 0.75%. LME tin rose 1.3%. LME nickel fell 1.09%. Precious metals, as of 11:45, COMEX gold rose 0.46%, and COMEX silver gained 1.4%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract edged up 0.07%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract dipped 0.02%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 0.44%, and the most-traded palladium futures dropped 0.52%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 0.41%, closing at 2,931.5 points. As of 11:45 on May 26, midday futures performance (selected): Spot Prices and Fundamentals Copper: Today in Guangdong, #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 160 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 80 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 10 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 105,010 yuan/mt, down 735 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 104,900 yuan/mt, down 745 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory ended a four-consecutive-day increase and resumed declining today... Macro Front China: [MOFCOM: China will attract more multinational companies to locate R&D and high-end manufacturing operations in China] The State Council Information Office held a press conference on the 2026 Qingdao Summit of Multinational Corporation Leaders. Vice Minister of Commerce Yan Dong stated that China will optimize the investment structure and activate new momentum for foreign investment. The Ministry of Commerce issued and implemented the 2025 edition of the *Catalogue of Industries for Encouraging Foreign Investment*, with a net increase of 205 encouraged categories, focusing on areas such as advanced manufacturing, modern services, high-tech, and energy conservation and environmental protection, providing policy support for foreign-invested enterprises to expand into high-end and emerging fields. Going forward, more multinational companies will be attracted to place their R&D and high-end manufacturing operations in China, optimizing the structure of foreign investment in China and strengthening innovation momentum. [Huang Guanglie, Deputy Secretary General of Guangzhou Municipal Government: Confident in Further Consolidating the Stabilizing and Improving Trend of Guangzhou's Property Market] On May 26, Guangzhou held a press conference on the series of supporting documents for the *Implementation Opinions on Further Promoting the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market*. Huang Guanglie, Deputy Secretary General of Guangzhou Municipal Government, stated that going forward, Guangzhou will continue to improve the two major systems of the housing market and housing security, and continuously optimize property market regulation measures. Departments including the Municipal Bureau of Planning and Natural Resources, the Municipal Bureau of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, and the Municipal Housing Provident Fund Center have issued supporting detailed rules on matters such as land supply, special subsidies for "selling old and buying new," and "commercial-to-provident fund loan conversion." Huadu District responded swiftly by launching the "Huadu Eight Measures" as specific initiatives. State-owned enterprises represented by Guangzhou Anju Group are accelerating the launch of pilot work on the acquisition and revitalization of second-hand housing. It is believed that as these detailed rules are fully implemented and all sectors work in coordination, we are confident in further consolidating the stabilizing and improving trend of Guangzhou's property market. (Jin10 Data APP) [Guangzhou: Removing Restrictions on "Only Housing in the City" and the Number of Provident Fund Loan Uses] On May 26, 2026, the Guangzhou Housing Provident Fund Management Center issued the normative document *Implementation Measures for Converting Commercial Personal Housing Loans to Housing Provident Fund Personal Housing Loans in Guangzhou (Provisional)*. It proposed expanding the scope of commercial loan banks, removing the restriction that "the original commercial loan bank must be a housing provident fund entrusted bank," and allowing commercial loans from non-housing provident fund handling banks to be converted into pure housing provident fund loans. Requirements on loan types, terms, and provident fund contribution periods were relaxed. For commercial-to-provident fund conversion handled by housing provident fund loan handling banks, applicants whose convertible provident fund loan amount is not enough to fully repay the principal and interest of the original commercial loan may choose to convert to a combined loan. The requirement for opening an account and accumulating housing provident fund contributions was reduced from "60 months" to "36 months." The original commercial loan disbursement period was shortened from "more than 3 years" to "more than 2 years." The restrictions on "only housing in the city" and the number of provident fund loan uses were removed, no longer requiring that "the mortgaged property is the applicant's family's only housing in the city," and supporting applications for first and second improved housing. Applicants who have "never used or have only used housing provident fund loans once" are also eligible for the commercial-to-provident fund loan conversion, and are no longer restricted by the "never used housing provident fund loans" requirement. (Jin10 Data) [Xiongan New Area: Maximum Housing Provident Fund Loan Raised to 800,000 Yuan] The Xiongan New Area Housing Management Center issued a notice on optimizing and adjusting housing provident fund withdrawal and loan policies. According to the notice, for contributing employees who meet the rental withdrawal conditions in the new area but have not filed their housing rental contracts, the maximum annual withdrawal amount has been raised to 17,000 yuan; for those who have filed their housing rental contracts via the "Hebei Xiongan New Area Housing Rental Information Service Platform," the maximum annual withdrawal amount has been raised to 25,000 yuan. For contributing employees who purchase self-occupied housing in the new area and apply for a housing provident fund loan, the maximum loan amount has been raised to 800,000 yuan. For employees of Beijing-relocated entities whose housing provident fund contributions are based in the new area and who purchase self-occupied housing in the new area, the maximum housing provident fund loan amount has been raised to 1.2 million yuan. For multi-child families with two or more children who purchase self-occupied housing in the new area and apply for a housing provident fund loan, the maximum loan amount is increased by 200,000 yuan. Employee families who have only one fully repaid housing provident fund loan record nationwide and own no property in the new area are eligible for the first-home housing provident fund loan policy. (Xiongan Provident Fund) [PBOC's Reverse Repo Operations Result in a Net Injection of 248.5 Billion Yuan on the Day] The PBOC conducted 249 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 500 million yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, this resulted in a net injection of 248.5 billion yuan on the day. US dollar: As of 11:45, the US dollar index rose 0.07% to 99.05. US Secretary of State Rubio, who concluded his visit to India, today (May 26) commented to the media on the so-called "self-defensive strikes" carried out by US forces this morning across multiple locations in southern Iran, stating that the Strait of Hormuz "must remain open, no matter what." Rubio said, "The (Hormuz) Strait must be open; it will eventually open in some way; it must be open." He also stated that the agreement expected to be reached with Iran may still require "a few more days" of negotiations over wording. (CCTV International News) According to CME's "FedWatch": the probability that the US Fed will keep interest rates unchanged through June is 99.9%, with a 0.1% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut. The probability that the US Fed will keep interest rates unchanged through July is 90.3%, with a 9.6% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike and a 0.1% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut. (Jin Shi Data) Other currencies: Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Himino Ryozo emphasized that timely policy adjustments were crucial for maintaining market participants' confidence amid the recent sell-off in Japanese government bonds. Himino Ryozo said on Tuesday: "Regarding monetary policy and long-term interest rates, we believe it is very important to adjust the degree of monetary easing at an appropriate pace in response to future economic, price, and financial conditions, thereby maintaining market confidence that inflation will be properly controlled." The remarks appeared to suggest that the BOJ was open to raising interest rates in the near term. Himino Ryozo and other officials, including BOJ Governor Ueda Kazuo, recently emphasized the need to maintain a responsible attitude toward financial markets, and the market widely expected the BOJ to raise interest rates at its meeting next month. Meanwhile, Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae last week subtly released signals that she hoped the BOJ would maintain policy stability, as she was trying to mitigate the economic impact of the Iran war. Himino Ryozo said: "The BOJ will strive to implement policy appropriately to maintain such market confidence and achieve the price stability target in a sustainable and stable manner." (Jin Shi Data) DBS Group Research FX strategist Philip Wee said the Reserve Bank of New Zealand was very likely to keep interest rates unchanged at its Wednesday meeting, but the overall stance would be hawkish. "The RBNZ may prioritize above-target inflation over weak GDP growth and high unemployment." Wee also said that a rate hike on Wednesday could not be ruled out, and therefore NZD/USD was expected to return to the upper half of this year's 0.5700–0.6100 trading range. (Jin Shi Data) Data: Data to be released today include the UK May CBI retail sales balance, US March FHFA House Price Index MoM, US March S&P/CS 20-City Composite Home Price Index YoY (non-seasonally adjusted), US May Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, and US May Dallas Fed Business Activity Index. In addition, attention should also be paid to Xiaomi Group's earnings call. Crude oil: As of 11:45, oil prices in the two markets diverged, with WTI down 5.33% and Brent up 1.62%. The notable divergence between the two reflected a high degree of uncertainty in the market's assessment of the situation. (Wallstreetcn) US Central Command said the US and Israel struck multiple Iranian vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, hours after Trump said negotiations with Tehran on an interim deal were making progress. The renewed fighting underscores the fragility of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement. The market is closely watching strikes that could derail negotiations. (Jin10 Data) According to Al Arabiya, a draft US-Iran agreement has been reached. The draft allows free passage through the Strait of Hormuz and the clearing of mines; navigation through the Strait of Hormuz must be restored within 30 days. The agreement stipulates that the US commits to easing the blockade on Iranian ports; the agreement allows Iran to sell and export oil; the agreement will provide specific sanctions exemptions for Iranian oil exports, and will consider easing sanctions on Iranian oil in phases, depending on Iran's implementation of its commitments. The agreement provides for continued nuclear negotiations to reach a long-term consensus. Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM May 18 Update: Metals market: Last Friday's overnight session saw a broad sell-off across both domestic and overseas metals markets, with most declining over 1%. LME tin led the decline at 4.03%, LME copper fell 3.15%, LME aluminum and SHFE tin dropped over 2% (LME aluminum -2.36%, SHFE tin -2.84%). LME lead, LME zinc, LME nickel, SHFE copper, and SHFE nickel all fell over 1% (LME lead -1.39%, LME zinc -1.35%, LME nickel -1.9%, SHFE copper -1.29%, SHFE nickel -1.3%). SHFE lead and SHFE zinc fell less than 1% (SHFE lead -0.6%, SHFE zinc -0.44%). The alumina front-month contract fell 1.19%, and the foundry aluminum front-month contract fell 0.99%. Last Friday's overnight session saw broad declines in ferrous metals. Stainless steel fell 0.94%, and iron ore fell 0.8%. Hot-rolled coil and rebar dropped over 0.6% (hot-rolled coil -0.63%, rebar -0.62%). For coking coal and coke, coking coal fell 0.49% and coke fell 1.32%. Last Friday's overnight session for precious metals: COMEX gold fell 3.02% overnight, down 3.96% on the week; COMEX silver plunged 10.59%, down 5.65% on the week. In China, SHFE gold fell 1.13%, down 3.37% on the week; SHFE silver fell 6.79%, down 3.26% on the week. This was mainly driven by rising US Treasury yields and the strengthening of the US dollar with no resolution in sight, while the US-Iran conflict intensified inflation concerns, further reinforcing market expectations of interest rate hikes. As of 8:24 AM on May 16, last Friday's overnight closing prices: Macro Front Wang Yi briefed the media on the China-US summit and the consensus reached. Wang Yi stated that the two heads of state interacted for nearly 9 hours and agreed that building a "China-US Constructive Strategic Stability Relationship" was the most important political consensus. At the invitation of President Trump, President Xi Jinping will pay a state visit to the US this autumn. The economic and trade teams of both countries reached overall balanced and positive outcomes, including continuing to implement all consensus from previous negotiations, agreeing to establish a Trade Council and an Investment Council, addressing each other's concerns on agricultural product market access, and promoting the expansion of two-way trade under a reciprocal tariff reduction framework. China: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs provided consolidated responses on China-US economic and trade issues including semiconductors, rare earths, Boeing, and oil purchases. On May 15, Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Guo Jiakun hosted a regular press conference and provided consolidated responses on China-US economic and trade issues. Regarding rare earth supply, China is committed to maintaining the stability of global supply chains. Regarding purchases of US oil and Boeing aircraft, China expressed willingness to jointly safeguard energy security and supply chain stability, emphasizing the mutually beneficial nature of China-US economic and trade relations. Qiushi Journal published an important article by General Secretary Xi Jinping titled "Making the Real Economy Stronger, Better, and Bigger." The article pointed out that manufacturing is the foundation of the real economy, and high-quality development of manufacturing should be given a more prominent position, with unwavering commitment to building a manufacturing powerhouse. It called for implementing industrial foundation re-engineering projects and major technical equipment breakthrough projects, supporting the development of specialized, refined, distinctive, and innovative enterprises, and promoting high-end, intelligent, and green development of manufacturing. It also called for promoting the integrated cluster development of strategic emerging industries and building a batch of new growth engines in areas such as next-generation information technology, artificial intelligence, biotechnology, new energy, new materials, high-end equipment, and green environmental protection. US dollar: As of last Friday's overnight close, the US dollar index rose 0.41% to 99.28, up 1.45% on the week. Rising energy prices and prolonged shipping disruptions intensified inflationary pressures, pushing up market expectations that the US Fed would raise interest rates this year. US interest rate futures prices fell sharply on Friday, reflecting growing conviction among bond market investors that elevated inflation would force the US Fed to raise interest rates later this year or in early 2027. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market priced in approximately a 60% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting next January, with a 50% probability of a rate hike in December. US April retail sales grew further, but part of the increase may have stemmed from rising inflation, as the Iran conflict pushed up energy and other commodity prices. Data released Thursday showed April retail sales rose 0.5%, in line with market expectations, while the March increase was revised down to 1.6%. The Iran conflict is driving up inflation; US Energy Information Administration data showed gasoline prices rose 12.3% in April. Despite surging oil prices, consumer spending had not yet noticeably shifted away from other areas due to larger tax refund amounts this year. IRS data showed that as of April 25, the average refund amount increased by $323 compared to the same period in 2025. However, this support is fading. Economists at PNC Financial Services Group stated that based on internal data analysis, "consumers are spending their tax refunds faster than last year, especially among lower-income households," adding that "the amount of refund money being used to pay off credit card and other debts is also declining." (Jin10 Data APP) The Fed Board of Governors said in a statement on Friday that it had appointed Jerome Powell as chair pro tempore until his successor Kevin Warsh is officially sworn in. The US Fed stated: "This interim step of appointing the current chair as chair pro tempore is consistent with the practice followed during previous chair transitions." In response, Fed Governors Bowman and Milan stated that they did not support the interim appointment. On May 15, Powell's term as Fed Chairman expired. (Wallstreetcn) Analysts at BofA Global Research: If strong global economic growth prevents the US Fed from cutting interest rates, emerging markets could perform well. However, under scenarios of asymmetric growth (favoring the US) or a global stagflation shock, emerging markets would be more vulnerable. On the currency front, even though the election trigger point is still months away, commodity outlook and monetary policy should continue to provide support for the Brazilian real. (Wallstreetcn) Data: This week, China will release data including April total retail sales of consumer goods YoY, April industrial value added of enterprises above designated size YoY, the one-year Loan Prime Rate as of May 20, and April Swift RMB share in global payments. The US will release data including initial jobless claims for the week ending May 16, weekly ADP employment change for the week ending May 2, April pending home sales index MoM, April annualized housing starts, April building permits, May Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, continuing jobless claims for the week ending May 9, May S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary, May S&P Global Services PMI preliminary, May University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final, May NAHB Housing Market Index, May one-year inflation expectations final, and April Conference Board Leading Index MoM. The UK will release data including March three-month ILO unemployment rate, April unemployment rate, April claimant count, April CPI MoM, April Retail Price Index MoM, May Manufacturing PMI preliminary, May Services PMI preliminary, May CBI Industrial Orders balance, May GfK Consumer Confidence Index, April public sector net borrowing, and April seasonally adjusted retail sales MoM. Germany will release data including April PPI MoM, May Manufacturing PMI preliminary, June GfK Consumer Confidence Index, Q1 final non-seasonally adjusted GDP YoY, and May IFO Business Climate Index. The eurozone will release data including March seasonally adjusted trade balance, April CPI YoY final, April CPI MoM final, May Manufacturing PMI preliminary, March seasonally adjusted current account, and May Consumer Confidence Index preliminary. Canada will release data including April CPI MoM and March retail sales MoM. Japan's April core CPI YoY, France's May Manufacturing PMI preliminary, and Australia's April seasonally adjusted unemployment rate will also be released. In addition, in China, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will release the monthly report on residential property prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the national economic performance, and a new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open. At 2:00 AM on May 21, the US Fed will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting. The Reserve Bank of Australia will release the minutes of its May monetary policy meeting. ECB Chief Economist Lane and Fed Governor Waller will speak at an ECB research conference. 2026 FOMC voter and Philadelphia Fed President Paulsen will deliver a speech. Crude oil: As of last Friday's overnight close, the US-Iran standoff over Strait of Hormuz passage remained unresolved, and both benchmarks rose. WTI gained 4.44% and Brent gained 3.55%. On the week, WTI rose 10.73% and Brent rose 8.08%. As the Iran conflict cut off energy supplies from the Persian Gulf, US refiners are ramping up fuel production to fill supply gaps in gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. Analysts said this rapid growth trend is expected to keep many refineries operating at effective maximum capacity for at least the remainder of 2026. Reduced spare crude oil supply in Europe and other regions, combined with the difficulty of restoring post-conflict infrastructure in the Middle East in the short term, is pushing up crude oil refining margins. Analysts said this rapid growth trend is expected to keep many refineries operating at effective maximum capacity for at least the remainder of 2026. Data from the US Energy Information Administration showed that the so-called "capacity utilization rate" has climbed for three consecutive weeks and is now approaching 92%. In recent weeks, gasoline production hit a nine-month high, while jet fuel production reached its highest level since the summer of 2024. (Jin10 Data APP) US Energy Secretary Wright said at an event in Sabine Pass, Texas on Friday that the US will replenish every barrel of crude oil released from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). He said: "We are releasing oil now, and for every barrel released, we will put back at least 1.2 barrels into the reserve. Ultimately, we will make the reserve larger than when we started." (Jin10 Data APP) According to US media reports, the Trump administration plans to streamline the permitting process for oil projects within the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska to boost crude oil production in the US Arctic region. The Interior Department's move aims to establish a new permitting framework for the construction and operation of oil production facilities and related infrastructure. Under the plan, eligible projects could receive analysis and authorization more quickly, potentially within just 30 days. This initiative could benefit companies holding leases in the reserve, such as ConocoPhillips, Santos, and Repsol, and accelerate government review of projects like ConocoPhillips' Willow project, which had drawn strong opposition from climate activists. During the Iran conflict, with approximately 20% of global supply trapped in the Persian Gulf, the Trump administration has stepped up calls for US oil companies to increase production. (Jin10 Data APP) US import and export prices surged in April, posting the largest increases in over four years, driven by oil market pressures related to the Iran conflict, further signaling rising inflation in the world's largest economy. Data released Thursday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed the import price index rose 1.9% MoM, the largest increase since March 2022, with petroleum costs surging 19%. Export prices rose 3.3% MoM, also the largest increase in over four years. (Wallstreetcn)

[High Prices Weighed on Downstream Demand; Downstream Consumption Lacked Highlights] Operating rates this week were basically flat compared with last week, with large enterprises maintaining relatively stable operations overall. Some small enterprises planned to ramp up production in May, driving a slight increase in production. Current actual market consumption showed mediocre performance, with no significant improvement in orders across various sectors...

SMM News, May 12: Metals market: Overnight, domestic market base metals mostly rose. SHFE copper was up 2.35%. SHFE aluminum was up 0.57%, SHFE lead was down 0.24%. SHFE zinc was up 1.33%. SHFE tin was up 1.8%. SHFE nickel was up 0.83%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures were up 0.53%, and the most-traded foundry aluminum futures were up 0.82%. Overnight, ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore was down 0.24%, stainless steel edged down, rebar was down 0.18%, and hot-rolled coil edged up. Coking coal and coke: coking coal was down 0.65%, coke was up 0.19%. Overnight, overseas market metals saw LME base metals rise across the board. LME copper was up 2.84%. LME aluminum was up 2.27%, LME lead was up 0.56%. LME zinc was up 1.19%. LME tin was up 2.31%. LME nickel was up 1.64%. Overnight precious metals : COMEX gold was up 0.31%, COMEX silver was up 7.35%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold contract was up 0.45%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract was up 6.47%. Gandharv Walia, a columnist for India's Economic Times, said that on Monday, gold prices fell as geopolitical tensions sparked inflation concerns and shifted interest rate expectations. Silver performed differently — silver typically benefits from both industrial and investment demand, and traders increased purchases on expectations of industrial use and price momentum. The market currently expects fluctuations in the precious metals market. US April inflation data will be released this week. Strong inflation data could delay interest rate cuts, which could put pressure on gold again; lower inflation could support gold prices. Global diplomatic efforts on the Iran issue are equally important, as any outcome could affect market sentiment and precious metals prices. On the other hand, silver benefits from industrial demand. The manufacturing and technology sectors require silver for electronic devices and energy systems. If economic activity remains stable, silver may continue to outperform gold. (Jin10) As of 7:18 AM, May 12, overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [The General Office of the State Council Issued the "State Council 2026 Annual Legislative Work Plan"] The State Council Legislative Plan emphasized promoting high-quality development, maintaining high-level security through high-quality legislation, and ensuring the smooth achievement of economic and social development goals during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. First, to build a high-level socialist market economic system and accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, it listed the draft Financial Law, the draft amendment to the Tendering and Bidding Law, and the formulation of regulations on building a unified national market. Second, to strengthen the rule-of-law government and optimize the business environment, it will revise the implementation regulations of the Administrative Reconsideration Law and the procedures for formulating administrative regulations. Third, to accelerate high-level scientific and technological self-reliance and stimulate cultural innovation, it listed the draft amendment to the Teachers Law and the revision of the Internet Information Service Management Measures. Fourth, to strengthen people's livelihood and accelerate green transformation, it listed the draft amendment to the Road Traffic Safety Law, the formulation of water supply regulations, and the revision of the Drug Administration Law implementation regulations. Fifth, to modernize the national security system and build a safer China, it listed the draft amendment to the Earthquake Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Law and the formulation of regulations on production safety hazard investigation and management. Sixth, to strengthen foreign-related legal systems and expand high-level opening-up, it listed the draft amendment to the Customs Law, the formulation of State Council provisions on industry chain and supply chain security, and the revision of the regulations on origin of import and export goods. Meanwhile, the State Council Legislative Plan made arrangements for accelerating comprehensive legislation on the healthy development of artificial intelligence, and outlined plans for legislation urgently needed for further comprehensive deepening of reform, accelerating government function transformation, developing new quality productive forces, safeguarding national security, strengthening foreign-related rule of law, and advancing national defense and military modernization. (Xinhua) [PBOC Q1 Monetary Policy Implementation Report: Continue to Implement Moderately Accommodative Monetary Policy] The People's Bank of China released its Q1 2026 China Monetary Policy Implementation Report. The report stated: continue to implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy. Enhance the foresight, flexibility, and precision of policies, grasp the intensity, pace, and timing of policy implementation based on economic and financial conditions in and outside China and financial market operations, strengthen coordination between monetary and fiscal policies, smooth monetary policy transmission mechanisms, and promote stable economic growth and reasonable price rebound. Flexibly use various monetary policy tools, maintain ample liquidity and relatively accommodative social financing conditions, guide reasonable growth in aggregate financial volume and balanced credit allocation, so that the growth of aggregate social financing and money supply matches economic growth and overall price level targets. [China Automotive Battery Innovation Alliance: Combined Power Battery and ESS Battery Exports Reached 31.7 Gwh in April, up 42% YoY] The latest monthly data from the China Automotive Battery Innovation Alliance showed that in April, affected by the new export tax rebate policy, China's combined power battery and ESS battery exports reached 31.7 Gwh, down 12.3% MoM and up 42.0% YoY, accounting for 19.3% of monthly sales. Among them, power battery exports were 20.2 Gwh, accounting for 63.9% of total exports, down 9.0% MoM and up 40.1% YoY; ESS battery exports were 11.4 Gwh, accounting for 36.1% of total exports, down 17.4% MoM and up 45.4% YoY. [China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products Submitted Comments on the EU Cybersecurity Act Amendment Draft] Recently, the EU has been pushing to amend the Cybersecurity Act, adding an "ICT Supply Chain Security" chapter to the amendment draft, which introduces numerous restrictive and exclusionary provisions for market access of overseas suppliers. Once implemented, this could seriously hinder fair competition for Chinese enterprises in the EU market. The China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products (CCCME) noted the high level of industry concern and fully utilized the EU's legislative review opportunity to submit comments to the European Commission from an industry organization perspective. CCCME also noted that recent EU measures — including the Industrial Accelerator Act and other legislative initiatives, as well as the designation of China as a "high-risk country" in inverter projects at the implementation level — could seriously affect Chinese machinery and electronics enterprises' exports to and operations in the EU. CCCME will closely monitor developments on all fronts and assist domestic enterprises in actively addressing related risks and challenges. (Wallstreetcn) [Baotou Released 16 New Housing Market Policies, to Optimize Housing Provident Fund Support] Baotou officially issued the "Measures for Continuously Promoting Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market." Among the measures, it will optimize housing provident fund support by raising the maximum loan amount for families with two or more children purchasing owner-occupied housing by 10% above the current level (currently, the maximum loan for a single contributor is 700,000 yuan, and for dual-contributor couples, 1.2 million yuan); and support flexible employment workers in voluntarily participating in the housing provident fund system with equal access to housing provident fund policies. US dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index was up 0.08%, closing at 97.94. The US "inflation week" officially kicked off, with CPI (Tuesday), PPI (Wednesday), and import prices (Thursday) all to be released this week, directly affecting judgments on the US Fed's policy path. According to the CME FedWatch tool: the probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through June was 97.7%, with a 2.3% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut. The probability of rates remaining unchanged through July was 94.6%, with a 5.4% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut and a 0.1% probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point cut. Kevin Warsh, Trump's nominee for the next Fed Chairman, cleared a key procedural hurdle in the Senate on Monday local time. Powell's chairmanship will end this Friday. The Senate is expected to vote as early as Tuesday, following Monday's so-called "cloture vote," to confirm Warsh as a Fed Governor for a 14-year term. Senators will then initiate the confirmation process for his concurrent four-year term as Fed Chairman, with a vote possible as early as Wednesday. The Republican-controlled Senate is expected to approve Warsh as the next Fed leader. The US Fed's next meeting — potentially Warsh's first as chairman — is scheduled for June 16-17 local time. (Jin10) Macro: Data to be released today include Germany's April CPI monthly rate final reading, Germany's May ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, Eurozone May ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, US April NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, US weekly ADP employment change for the week ending April 25, US April non-seasonally adjusted CPI annual rate, US April seasonally adjusted CPI monthly rate, US April seasonally adjusted core CPI monthly rate, and US April non-seasonally adjusted core CPI annual rate. In addition, attention should be paid to: the Bank of Japan's release of the summary of opinions from the April monetary policy meeting; permanent FOMC voter and New York Fed President Williams participating in a panel discussion on monetary policy; and Vice Premier He Lifeng leading a delegation to South Korea from May 12-13 for trade consultations with the US side. Crude oil: Overnight, both oil futures rose, with WTI up 2.97% and Brent up 3.25%. US-Iran ceasefire negotiations reached an impasse, and the near-standstill of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continued to intensify market concerns over energy supply disruptions, pushing oil prices higher. (Wallstreetcn) The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) allocated 53.5 million barrels of crude oil to companies including commodity trader Trafigura Group and US refiner Marathon Petroleum to help ease the oil price surge triggered by the Iran war. Ahead of the US summer driving peak, the US government is releasing near-record levels of crude oil to the market to bring down oil prices. The crude oil will be released from June to August, when refineries will ramp up capacity to meet peak gasoline demand. This sale, the second-largest SPR release in history, is also part of a global effort led by the International Energy Agency to bring down oil prices. Last week, the US had already released a record daily average of 1.22 million barrels of crude oil under this framework. The Trump administration pledged to release 172 million barrels of crude oil through a so-called "exchange program." Under this mechanism, crude oil is lent to companies and must later be returned in kind. To date, the US has agreed to release 133.1 million barrels of crude oil. (Jin10)