Since March this year, Shenzhen's real estate market has seen a new wave of momentum, with trading volume for both new homes and existing homes continuing to rise MoM, and the market recovering notably, as the "Spring Mini-Boom" emerged. Recently, as a new batch of high-quality residential projects has been launched one after another, housing demand is expected to be further released. According to the Municipal Housing and Construction Bureau, in the first two weeks of March, the number of online signed transactions for second-hand residential properties in Shenzhen rose 23.8% and 24.5% WoW, respectively.

The latest data shows that the number of cities experiencing a MoM decline in housing prices increased in May, indicating that the market is once again showing signs of adjustment. According to the housing price data for 70 cities nationwide released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on June 16, in May 2025, the number of cities with a MoM increase in new home prices was 13, a decrease of 9 cities from the previous month; the number of cities with a decline was 53, an increase of 8 cities from the previous month. For second-hand home prices, 3 cities saw a MoM increase, a decrease of 2 cities from the previous month; 67 cities experienced a decline, an increase of 3 cities from the previous month. "Overall, policies aimed at promoting the stabilization of the real estate market have continued to show effectiveness, and the real estate market operated relatively smoothly in May. However, it should be noted that the real estate market is still in the process of adjustment, market confidence needs to be continuously restored, and the supply-demand relationship in the market still needs improvement. Continuous efforts are required to promote the stabilization of the real estate market," said Fu Linghui, spokesperson for the NBS and director of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics of National Economy, at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office. For new homes, the MoM decline in the new residential housing price index for 70 cities nationwide was 0.2% in May, slightly wider than the previous month. Specifically, in first-tier cities, the MoM new home sales price changed from flat in the previous month to a decline of 0.2% in May; in second-tier cities, the MoM sales price of new residential homes changed from flat in the previous month to a decline of 0.2%; in third-tier cities, the MoM sales price of new residential homes declined by 0.3%, with the decline widening by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. Among the 13 cities with rising housing prices, the top 5 cities in terms of housing price index increases were Hangzhou, Shanghai, Nanning, Urumqi, and Shenyang. Among them, Hangzhou led the gains among the 70 cities with a 0.8% increase. Shanghai was the only first-tier city where new home prices rose against the trend, with an increase of 0.7%, second only to Hangzhou; the other three first-tier cities, Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, saw housing prices pull back by 0.4%, 0.8%, and 0.4%, respectively. "The MoM increase in Shanghai's new home prices is attributed to the concentrated launch of high-end properties in the market, attracting significant attention from high-net-worth individuals, thereby boosting market enthusiasm and raising the overall average price of Shanghai's new home market. Hangzhou stood out among second-tier cities, with a heated land market driving up interest in property searches in surrounding areas and injecting strong confidence into the real estate market," said Zhang Bo, president of the 58 Anjuke Research Institute. Compared to the new home market, the second-hand home market faced more pronounced pressure. Data showed that the MoM decline in the price index for 70 cities was 0.5% in May. Among them, the MoM decline in the second-hand residential housing price index for first-tier cities was 0.7%, widening by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, with Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen experiencing declines of 0.8%, 0.7%, 0.8%, and 0.5%, respectively. In second- and third-tier cities, the selling prices of second-hand residential properties both declined by 0.5% MoM, with the rate of decline expanding by 0.1 percentage points each. "It has become commonplace for second-hand housing to adopt a volume discount strategy. Compared to April, although the number of cities where second-hand housing prices have fallen has increased, it should also be noted that this has led to a rise in home-search enthusiasm and an increase in trading volume," said Zhang Bo. According to the 58 Anjuke Leading Index, the home-search enthusiasm diffusion index rose by 0.14 points MoM in May 2025, indicating a decrease in the number of cities with declining enthusiasm and an increase in the number of cities with rebounding enthusiasm. Analysts believe this serves as a key improvement signal for the market to begin experiencing a price and volume correction in June. Meanwhile, the diffusion index for the duration of listed properties decreased from 0.5 to 0.38, indicating that the duration of listed properties in most cities has shortened and the de-stocking speed has accelerated. In Zhang Bo's view, this change mainly stems from two aspects: firstly, the recovery in home-search demand has improved the matching efficiency between buyers and sellers; secondly, real estate agents are promoting price reductions for high-value properties to facilitate transactions. It is worth noting that the market expects more substantial policy support. The State Council Executive Meeting held on June 13 proposed to "drive the real estate market to stabilize and rebound with greater force." Industry insiders believe this sends a strong signal to the market to further stabilize the housing sector. The meeting pointed out the need to steadily and forcefully promote the construction of "quality housing," incorporate it into the urban renewal mechanism to strengthen work coordination, and provide policy support in areas such as planning, land, finance, and banking. It is necessary to conduct a comprehensive survey of the land already supplied and ongoing real estate projects nationwide, further optimize existing policies, enhance the systematic and effective implementation of policies, and adopt a multi-pronged approach to stabilize expectations, activate demand, optimize supply, and mitigate risks, thereby driving the real estate market to stabilize and rebound with greater force. "The statement at this State Council Executive Meeting about 'driving the real estate market to stabilize and rebound with greater force,' with stronger wording, implies that more targeted incremental measures may be on the way," said Chen Shen, an analyst at Huatai Securities. He further pointed out that the policy ideas of "conducting a comprehensive survey, optimizing, and adopting a multi-pronged approach" proposed at this State Council Executive Meeting are noteworthy. Among them, conducting a comprehensive survey of the land already supplied and ongoing projects nationwide aims to clarify key issues such as land idleness, providing data support for subsequently revitalizing stock resources through means such as acquisition and storage, and optimizing the rhythm of land supply. Secondly, promoting the construction of "quality housing" and incorporating it into the urban renewal system is a way to activate demand by optimizing supply. Meanwhile, exerting comprehensive efforts in areas such as planning, land, finance, and banking emphasizes enhancing the systematic and effective implementation of existing policies to boost market confidence. Yuan Hao, an analyst at Shenwan Hongyuan, also believes that although the total transaction volume of China's new and second-hand housing markets has remained relatively stable for nearly three years, the current volume and price have not yet fully entered a positive cycle. Therefore, it is expected that there is still a possibility of increasing policy support in the future. "The recent statement on halting the decline and stabilizing the real estate market has been adjusted from 'continuously consolidating' to 'greater efforts,' indicating that 'halting the decline and stabilizing' remains the main policy tone. It is expected that a new round of supportive policies may be introduced, which may include an interest rate cut on home loans, increasing the supply of high-quality housing, optimizing acquisition and storage, and advancing urban renewal projects," Yuan Hao said.

To boost market vitality, Guangzhou has taken a crucial step in optimizing its real estate policies. On June 13, Guangzhou released the "Implementation Plan for Special Actions to Boost Consumption (Draft for Public Comment)", seeking public feedback. The plan explicitly proposes to "systematically reduce consumption restrictions, optimize real estate policies, comprehensively lift purchase restrictions, sales restrictions, and price caps, and lower down payment ratios and interest rates for loans." This draft for public comment views real estate consumption as a "key link" in boosting the overall vitality of the consumer market. Industry analysts generally believe that the implementation of this series of policies will effectively stimulate Guangzhou's property market and accelerate the process of stabilizing housing prices. More critically, Zhang Bo, President of the 58 Anjuke Research Institute, stated that Guangzhou, as a first-tier city, sending a comprehensive and clear signal of policy easing, indicates an increased likelihood of further policy relaxation in first-tier cities. Clear Signal of Comprehensive Easing "This move marks Guangzhou as potentially the first first-tier city in the country to comprehensively lift the 'four restrictions'—purchase restrictions, sales restrictions, price caps, and loan restrictions," Zhang Bo told reporters. In fact, Guangzhou had already laid the groundwork for easing real estate policies. Chen Xueqiang, Research Director of the South China Branch of the China Index Academy, said in an interview with reporters that the comprehensive lifting of sales and purchase restrictions mentioned in this "Draft for Public Comment" had already been fully implemented in Guangzhou in May and September 2024, respectively. Although no official document had been previously issued regarding the lifting of price caps, the policy had already been in practice, meaning developers still needed to register prices, but the government no longer provided guidance prices. Regarding credit policies, Chen Xueqiang added that the current down payment ratios for first-time and second-time commercial loans in Guangzhou are both 15%, with the first-time commercial loan interest rate at 3% and the housing provident fund interest rate at 2.6%, which are already at relatively low levels. There is room for further reductions in the down payment ratios for housing provident fund loans in the future. From the perspective of Guangzhou's own real estate market situation, policy adjustments are also very necessary. According to Zhang Bo, based on housing price data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, Guangzhou is a first-tier city facing relatively significant downward pressure on housing prices, with both the new and second-hand housing markets remaining in a downward trend this year. Although Anjuke's online data shows that the overall second-hand listing prices stabilized in June, price declines were more pronounced in peripheral areas such as Baiyun, Panyu, Nansha, and Zengcheng. "Therefore, by comprehensively lifting purchase restrictions, sales restrictions, and price caps, and lowering down payment ratios and interest rates for loans, the aim is to eliminate administrative intervention, allow the market to return to supply and demand-driven dynamics, boost property transactions, and accelerate the stabilization of housing prices."Zhang Bo said. Chen Xueqiang also believes that the draft for public comments explicitly expands the scope of cancellation to include restrictions on resale and price caps, and emphasizes reducing down payment ratios and interest rates. This is a comprehensive confirmation of the policies already implemented, sending a strong signal of easing to the market. Several analysts have pointed out that among first-tier cities, Guangzhou has frequently taken the lead in introducing easing measures in the past, and the new policies in Guangzhou this time may continue to trigger a chain reaction, with other first-tier cities potentially following suit in relaxing their policy restrictions. Multi-dimensional Efforts to Activate Demand In addition to easing core restrictive measures, Guangzhou's current plan also deploys measures from multiple angles, aiming to activate latent demand and comprehensively meet housing consumption needs. The plan explicitly proposes to steadily advance the renovation of urban villages and old residential communities, with plans to initiate renovation of over 150 old residential communities and upgrade over 9,000 old residential elevators by 2025, achieving fixed asset investment of 100 billion yuan in urban village renovation. "Such quantitative targets demonstrate Guangzhou's emphasis on urban renewal and its determination for sustained investment," Zhang Bo analyzed. As a core supporting measure for optimizing Guangzhou's real estate policies, the renovation of old residential communities has been deeply advanced in recent years, leading the nation. Through institutional innovation, diverse participation, and precise implementation, it has achieved a positive interaction between improving people's livelihoods and urban development. Meanwhile, Yan Yuejin emphasized that urban village renovation will effectively promote the release of latent home-buying or housing demand. The plan also proposes to "advance the use of special loans to purchase existing commercial housing as resettlement housing." In fact, Guangzhou has been at the forefront nationwide in terms of special bond acquisitions and storage. Yan Yuejin believes that the mention of this in the current plan indicates that special loans will continue to play a significant role in the subsequent acquisition of existing commercial housing for resettlement purposes. Furthermore, the plan requires the continuous optimization of housing provident fund usage policies, supporting depositors in applying for individual housing loans from the housing provident fund while withdrawing funds from it to pay for home down payments, and further optimizing policy measures for rent extraction. Industry insiders believe that through the comprehensive withdrawal of restrictive policies, the continuous optimization of credit policies, as well as a stimulus policy package of supporting measures including urban village renovation, utilization of existing housing, and housing provident fund support, Guangzhou is striving to unblock the housing consumption chain and inject confidence into the market. If the policies are smoothly implemented, Guangzhou will not only become the first first-tier city to bid farewell to the era of "four restrictions" (restrictions on purchases, sales, prices, and loans), but it will also provide a reference sample for other major cities.

Despite numerous challenges in the market, the overall real estate market continued to stabilize and recover, driven by sustained policy efforts and proactive strategic adjustments by enterprises. According to CRIC statistics, the top 100 real estate enterprises achieved sales operating revenue of 294.58 billion yuan in May this year, up 3.5% MoM. Data showed that over half of the top 100 real estate enterprises saw a MoM increase in their monthly performance in May, with 22 enterprises experiencing a MoM growth of over 30% in their monthly performance. Real estate enterprises such as Greentown China, CNOOC Real Estate, China Jinmao, Greenland Holdings, and PowerChina Real Estate all achieved significant MoM and YoY improvements in their monthly performance. "Driven by sales promotions by real estate enterprises and the supply of high-quality housing, new home sales in key cities increased MoM in May." Analysts from China Index Academy predicted that the policy environment for the real estate market in June would remain accommodative. Coupled with the arrival of the mid-year sales period, the pace of property launches and the intensity of sales promotions by real estate enterprises may increase, and the market in core cities is expected to continue its recovery. From a cumulative sales performance perspective, data from China Index Academy showed that from January to May 2025, the total sales of the top 100 real estate enterprises reached 1.44364 trillion yuan, down 10.8% YoY. There were 33 real estate enterprises with total sales exceeding 10 billion yuan, the same as the previous year. There were 64 real estate enterprises with sales between 5 billion and 10 billion yuan, a decrease of 6 from the previous year. Among them, Poly Developments and Holdings ranked first in the industry with sales of 116.1 billion yuan in the first five months, followed by Greentown China with 96.4 billion yuan, CNOOC Real Estate with 90.4 billion yuan in third place, China Resources Land with 86.85 billion yuan in fourth place, and China Merchants Shekou with 67.1 billion yuan in fifth place. The sixth to tenth places in the industry were occupied by Vanke, C&D Real Estate, Yuexiu Property, Binjiang Group, and Huafa Industrial, with sales of 57 billion yuan, 56.1 billion yuan, 50.8 billion yuan, 43.36 billion yuan, and 43.26 billion yuan, respectively. As the sales market gradually stabilizes, significant changes have also occurred in the land acquisition strategies of real estate enterprises. In terms of land acquisition, from January to May 2025, the total land acquisition amount of the TOP 100 enterprises reached 405.19 billion yuan, up 28.8% YoY. In terms of new inventory value, Poly Developments and Holdings, Greentown China, and China Jinmao ranked among the top three. From January to May 2025, Poly Developments and Holdings topped the list with a new inventory value of 72.8 billion yuan, followed by Greentown China with 72.3 billion yuan, and China Jinmao with a new inventory value of 60.3 billion yuan, ranking third. "When acquiring land, real estate enterprises are increasingly focusing on core first- and second-tier cities," said Wang Ying, Managing Director of Corporate Ratings, Asia Pacific, at Fitch Ratings. Since Q4 last year, well-performing real estate enterprises have mainly been those state-owned enterprises with substantial land reserves in core first- and second-tier cities. However, real estate enterprises with large land reserves in third- and fourth-tier cities have not significantly benefited from the housing market recovery due to a lack of high-grade sellable resources. Meanwhile, weak sales have led to a continuous decline in operating cash flow, further constraining these enterprises' ability to acquire land in core areas of key cities. At the policy level, promoting the sustained recovery of the market remains an important policy goal for the real estate sector this year. Analysts from the China Index Academy believe that various policies are expected to continue to be implemented at an accelerated pace, with specific policies mainly focusing on urban village renovation, the supply of high-grade housing, and the acquisition of existing commercial housing inventory. "High-quality housing" has also become an important factor in driving market recovery. In recent years, the central government has repeatedly set the direction for the construction of "high-quality housing." In 2025, "high-quality housing" was included in the Government Work Report for the first time, proposing to "adapt to the people's high-grade living needs, improve standards and specifications, and promote the construction of safe, comfortable, green, and intelligent 'high-quality housing'," reflecting the government's high emphasis on the construction of "high-quality housing." On March 31, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued the national standard "Code for Residential Projects," which sets clear regulations on aspects such as the floor height of residential buildings, sound insulation performance of walls and floor slabs, elevator configuration requirements, and the net height of balcony railings. The code was officially implemented on May 1. At the same time, many localities have issued guidelines or relevant technical regulations for high-grade residential design over the past two years, with some implementation standards higher than the new version of the "Code for Residential Projects" to meet residents' demand for high-grade housing. In early May, the Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued the "2025 Beijing Annual Housing Development Plan," emphasizing the continuous promotion of the stabilization and improvement of the real estate market, vigorously constructing "high-quality housing," and better meeting diversified housing needs. Against the backdrop of policies advocating for "high-quality housing," real estate enterprises have also launched "high-quality housing" product systems. As a representative of the first batch of "high-quality housing" projects in Daxing District, Beijing, Xingchuang proposed the concept of "climate adaptability," considering Beijing's geographical factors to redesign supporting facilities necessary for livability. Its Muchun Villa project in Daxing adopts multiple high technologies to construct the Muchun series of high-quality housing products. "From the perspective of transaction structure, improvement-oriented demand has become an important support for the new housing market, with the proportion of transactions for units above 120 m² in key cities increasing in the first four months," said Wang Ying, Managing Director of Corporate Ratings, Asia Pacific, at Fitch Ratings. The aforementioned analyst from the China Index Academy stated that for enterprises, comprehensively enhancing their overall strength in areas such as cost control, product design, technological adaptation, and market positioning has become an important factor in improving their product competitiveness.

Shenzhen has made significant adjustments to its affordable housing model. On the afternoon of May 28, the Shenzhen Municipal Housing and Construction Bureau issued a notice on its official website, soliciting public opinions on the "Shenzhen Management Measures for Allocation-Based Affordable Housing (Draft for Solicitation of Opinions)". Allocation-based affordable housing is a type of housing within the housing security system. It refers to housing constructed in accordance with relevant policies and planning, with restrictions on unit size, selling price, usage and disposal rights, and is subject to closed management. It is allocated to eligible low-income wage-earning groups facing housing difficulties. Allocation-based affordable housing is sold as completed units. The draft for solicitation of opinions consists of 5 chapters and 37 articles, clarifying the application conditions, allocation methods and procedures, closed management, supervision, and other aspects of allocation-based affordable housing. In what aspects has Shenzhen's new measure changed compared to the previous ones? In response, analysts from Leyejia introduced that Shenzhen currently has four types of affordable housing: talent housing, affordable housing, shared-ownership housing, and allocation-based affordable housing. Among them, the supply of talent housing, affordable housing, and shared-ownership housing has ceased. According to the latest management measures, Shenzhen will only supply allocation-based affordable housing in the future. "After comparison, it can be found that the differences between the new measures and the previous ones include application conditions, whether full property rights can be obtained, resale restrictions, etc. In fact, last year, Shenzhen had already optimized relevant rules. For example, it was clarified that shared-ownership housing could be transferred within the closed system after five years, and formulas for making up the price difference were also determined for affordable housing and talent housing," said the aforementioned analyst. Specifically, the application conditions for allocation-based affordable housing mainly include being a Shenzhen resident, having no self-owned housing in Shenzhen, regularly paying social insurance premiums for a cumulative period of five years (or three years for those who meet the approval conditions for talent introduction and household registration stipulated by the municipal government), among others. Regarding pricing, it will be comprehensively determined based on the principles of covering the costs of allocated land, construction and installation, moderate and reasonable profits, and relevant taxes and fees, while appropriately considering factors such as economic and social development, the supply-demand relationship in the housing market, and the affordability of wage-earning groups. The selling price of allocation-based affordable housing will be calculated and proposed by professional institutions entrusted by the competent authorities and implemented after being reported to and approved by the Shenzhen Municipal Government. In addition, the new measures clarify that allocation-based affordable housing is subject to strict closed management, and it is prohibited to convert allocation-based affordable housing into commercial housing in any way. If a homeowner needs to exit the allocation-based affordable housing after purchase, they may apply to the Shenzhen Municipal Housing Authority for closed transfer on the information platform after three years from the date of signing the sales contract, transferring the allocation-based affordable housing to eligible recipients. The Shenzhen Municipal Housing Authority may regulate transfer behavior by setting upper limits for reference prices. If no one purchases a government-subsidized housing unit for more than one year, the housing authority may organize specialized government-subsidized housing institutions or other institutions to repurchase it based on actual circumstances. The repurchase price = original purchase price × (1 - annual depreciation coefficient × years of building use), with the annual depreciation coefficient set at 1%. Industry insiders point out that one of the greatest advantages of government-subsidized housing for sale is its price, which is highly attractive to many new residents in Shenzhen. "In 2023, Shenzhen's talent housing and affordable housing were highly sought after, primarily due to their price advantages. According to the latest regulations, the circulation restrictions on closed-loop trading of subsidized housing and the depreciation rules for secondary transfers not only stripped them of their financial attributes but also introduced certain losses in future transactions. However, there is some uncertainty regarding whether such housing can be effectively absorbed in the market. The decline in popularity of talent housing in 2024 is largely related to the clarification of listing rules after 10 years, which has weakened their cost-effectiveness," said Li Yujia, Chief Researcher at the Guangdong Provincial Housing Policy Research Center. Regarding why Shenzhen is optimizing the affordable housing model, analysts point out that this is partly related to the large-scale construction of affordable housing in the region. "Addressing the shortcomings in housing security is a correct direction. However, due to the rapid increase in affordable housing supply in the short term, inadequate consideration of the interaction between affordable housing and commercial housing, and insufficient consideration of the significant fluctuations in the commercial housing market from an upward to a downward trend, coupled with the fact that this construction task is mainly undertaken by a single enterprise, Anju Group (including district Anju), it has led to financial chain pressure at the enterprise level for Anju Group. It also faces pressure from market fluctuations on corporate operations, financial chain security, and the preservation and appreciation of state-owned assets," said Li Yujia. He further stated that Shenzhen currently has approximately 20,000 existing affordable housing units that have been allocated but not successfully sold, along with 15,000 units that have not yet been allocated, totaling nearly 35,000 units, which exceeds the number of existing new commercial housing units. However, the inventory of commercial housing is borne by scattered developers, while Shenzhen's affordable housing is undertaken by a single enterprise, placing significant pressure on the latter. The introduction of the new regulations will alleviate the pressure on Anju Group. In the view of He Ling, President of Marketing at Leyoujia, the introduction of government-subsidized housing for sale will effectively address the housing needs of new residents and young people, allowing them to settle in Shenzhen at a lower cost and providing support for talent retention and economic development in Shenzhen. "The draft for public comments clarifies that Shenzhen's government-subsidized housing for sale will primarily consist of small one-bedroom and two-bedroom units available for immediate purchase, with a three-year closed-loop holding period. If one wishes to exit, they must wait for the three-year period to end before engaging in closed-loop trading, and the purchase and sale will not result in appreciation. These rules will ensure that government-subsidized housing truly meets rigid housing demands,"He Ling said. Some industry insiders also believe that Shenzhen's easing of the application threshold for subsidized housing for allocation may have a certain impact on the commercial housing market. "If the policy is relaxed, it may create competition for the commercial housing market with total prices ranging from 2.5 million to 4 million yuan. On one hand, with the same budget, homebuyers may prioritize affordable housing in core areas like Nanshan, thereby reducing demand for commercial housing in districts such as Longhua, Guangming, and Longgang. On the other hand, the original 'parallel tracks' of affordable housing and commercial housing will intersect, and some families with rigid housing demands may shift to the affordable housing market, further compressing the sales space for commercial housing in peripheral areas. Of course, the specific impact will depend on factors such as the scale of different regions," added Li Yujia. From the performance of Shenzhen's market, according to the latest monitoring data from Leyejia, from May 1 to 27 this year, a total of 2,625 new residential units (including both existing and pre-sale units) were sold in Shenzhen, down 20% MoM. The number of second-hand residential units sold was 4,145, down 22% MoM but up 21% YoY.

On May 26, the Australian Anti-Dumping Commission issued Notice No. 2025/043, stating that in response to an application submitted by Echeng Steel Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Baowu Group, a Chinese exporter, it had initiated an anti-dumping review investigation into rebar with a diameter of 50 millimeters or less exported to Australia, to examine whether variable factors related to the existing anti-dumping measures should be changed. The dumping investigation period for this case was from April 1, 2024, to March 31, 2025. The Australian Anti-Dumping Commission is expected to complete the basic facts report of this case no later than September 15, 2025, and submit the final determination report to the Australian Minister for Industry and Science no later than October 28, 2025.