![Abnormal Inventory Accumulation of Aluminum Ingots in South China in Mid-to-Late March [SMM Analysis]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/production/admin/votes/imagesqsDLb20240416161800.jpeg)
Entering the second half of March, regional divergence in China’s aluminum market became increasingly pronounced, with the divergence between inventory trends and spot price spreads in east China and south China intensifying. On the one hand, the nationwide post-holiday inventory buildup in aluminum gradually approached its end, inventory overhang pressure in east China continued to ease, circulation efficiency steadily improved, the inventory buildup momentum slowed down significantly, and.....
Mar 28, 2026 19:33Nickel Ore " RKAB Approval Delays and Policy Shifts Expected to Drive Nickel Ore Prices Higher" Indonesian domestic nickel ore prices have risen significantly increase this week. For the first half of March, the Indonesian Nickel Ore Benchmark Price (HPM) was set at $17.329/dmt, an increase of 1.32%. However, according to SMM data, average premiums has increased for 1.4%, 1.5%, and 1.6% grade laterite nickel ore were reported at $36, $40, and $40.5/wmt, respectively, with 1.6% grade reaching a delivered price of $67.6–$74.6/wmt. This strengthening of premiums reflects both the release of restocking demand from smelters and pessimistic expectations regarding RKAB quota reductions. Simultaneously, the delivery price for 1.2% grade limonite has edged up to $25–$27/wmt. Pyrometallurgical Ore: From a supply and demand perspective, Sulawesi is transitioning into the dry season; Konawe has reached optimal production levels, while Morowali is slightly experiencing thunderstorms in this week. However, Halmahera's region is slightly stable. Currently, The market is facing a clear trend of declining ore grades. While some NPI smelters have begun accepting grades of 1.45% or lower, the supply of high-grade saprolite remains tight. As of mid-March, the ESDM has approved approximately 100 million tons of RKAB quotas. The remaining 160 to 170 million tons are expected to be processed by the end of March. However, due to the Eid al-Fitr (Lebaran) holidays (March 18–24), approval progress is expected to lag, exacerbating short-term supply tightness. Faced with resource uncertainty, some smelters have increased trade bonuses to secure raw materials. Transactions for low-grade saprolite are emerging at fixed prices lower than high-grade ores. Conversely, Limonite prices remain low due to a tailings dam landslide at a major MHP project, which has forced production lines to operate at low loads, hindering demand recovery. However, Limonite prices are expected to eventually follow Saprolite upward due to new project stockpiling and external island demand. Hydrometallurgical Ore Hydrometallurgical ore is relatively sufficient, a tailings dam landslide at an MHP project in a certain industrial park has forced related production lines to operate at low loads, leading to a temporary weakness in demand. Because miners currently secure higher profit margins from saprolite, they are less inclined to produce and sell limonite. To counter this reluctance, and to navigate ongoing RKAB approval uncertainties, fulfill the stockpiling needs of newly commissioned projects, and meet rising demand from outer islands, smelters have been compelled to raise limonite bids to incentivize miners to release their lower-grade ore. Consequently, hydrometallurgical ore prices are projected to follow the upward trajectory of pyrometallurgical ore and remain at elevated levels." On the policy front, although rumors regarding the implementation and delayed release of the new tax policy persist, the specific execution details remain under internal review by relevant ministries. While operational details for specific products like NPI and MHP still await final inter-ministerial confirmation, current policy winds suggest that the era of duty-free exports for Indonesian intermediate nickel products may soon be coming to an end. Looking ahead, the continuous tightening of Indonesian policies is expected to open up further upside potential for nickel ore prices and exert a profound impact on the cost structure of the global nickel supply chain. Market Outlook: Due to the overall delay in RKAB approvals, upcoming nickel export tax/windfall tax policy, probable nickel benchmark price changes, as well as miners are unable to produce with their "old quota" in April, nickel ore prices in next month are expected to remain resilient with a strong "easy to rise, hard to fall" trend. Nickel Pig Iron "High-Grade NPI Under Short-Term Pressure Amid Upstream-Downstream Tug-of-War " The average price of SMM 10-12% NPI average price dropped by RMB 6.7 per nickel unit week-on-week to RMB 1083.5 per nickel unit (ex-works, tax included), while the Indonesia NPI FOB index decreased by USD 1.38 USD per nickel unit to an average of USD 136.9 per nickel unit. Overall, the high-grade NPI market operated steadily. After transaction centers stabilized, the market entered a tug-of-war between upstream and downstream participants, leaving prices under short-term pressure. On the supply side, domestic nickel ore news has seen continuous disruptions. Upstream quotes were initially firm due to cost support; however, the market supply of scrap steel has increased significantly. Under the dual suppression of sluggish end-user demand and the economic advantage of scrap steel, upstream quotes for high-grade NPI have gradually weakened. In the stainless steel spot market, absolute social inventory levels remain high. Steel mills are maintaining high production schedules, leading to significant shipping pressure. Although there is some support on the cost side, the mills face considerable cost pressure themselves, and the economic advantage of stainless steel scrap has become prominent. Consequently, their acceptance of high-priced ferronickel is low, and their procurement attitude remains cautious. Stainless steel prices are expected to maintain a weak but stable trend. In summary, NPI prices will remain in an upstream-downstream tug-of-war in the short term, with upside price pressure driven by competition from scrap steel and the limited purchasing willingness of stainless steel mills.
Mar 27, 2026 23:55The Full End of the Philippines' Rainy Season, Coupled With the Fuel Emergency, May Put Downward Pressure on Nickel Ore Prices The Full End of the Philippines' Rainy Season, Coupled With the Fuel Emergency, May Put Downward Pressure on Nickel Ore Prices This week, Philippine nickel ore prices edged down. In terms of prices, Philippine nickel ore CIF China quotations were $64-67/wmt for Ni 1.3% grade, $71-74/wmt for Ni 1.4% grade, and $78-81/wmt for Ni 1.5% grade. The average CIF price from the Philippines to Indonesia was $65.5/wmt for 1.3% grade and $72.5/wmt for 1.4% grade. Weather side, weather conditions in the Philippines improved significantly this week WoW. Rainfall in major mining areas such as Surigao, Homonhon, and Tawi-Tawi trended lower, while Zambales and Palawan remained relatively dry. This shift indicated that major mining areas had gradually entered the mining season, releasing room for nickel ore supply. Demand side, despite elevated freight costs, several Chinese smelters had already started procurement. As of Friday, March 27, nickel ore inventory at Chinese ports stood at 4.63 million mt, down 190,000 mt WoW. Current total port inventory was equivalent to about 36,400 mt Ni in metal content. Demand side, domestic NPI prices were basically flat this week, while spot transaction prices fell by about 1,083.5 yuan per nickel unit. Smelters' acceptance of high-priced raw materials had peaked, which may prompt slight concessions in CIF prices, and nickel ore FOB and CIF prices are expected to be more likely to fall than rise in the short term. Indonesia Market: Delayed RKAB Approval Progress, Coupled With Expectations for Policy Transition, Is Expected to Further Lift the Price Center of Nickel Ore This week, prices of Indonesia's local nickel ore rose. Indonesia's nickel ore benchmark price (HPM) for the second half of March was set at $17,329/dmt, up 1.32% MoM. According to SMM's Indonesia nickel ore premium data, average premiums for 1.4%, 1.5%, and 1.6% grade laterite nickel ore were quoted at $36, $40, and $40.5/wmt, respectively. Among them, the domestic-trade port-arrival price for 1.6% grade was $67.6-74.6/wmt. The simultaneous strengthening of both premiums this month reflected the release of smelters' restocking demand and pessimistic expectations over RKAB quota cuts, while the delivered price of 1.2% grade limonite ore also edged up in tandem to $25-27/wmt. From supply and demand fundamentals, as of March 27, 2026, weather conditions across Indonesia's nickel mining areas were as follows: Morowali was expected to see cumulative rainfall of 0.065-0.08 this week, and strong thunderstorms would severely affect open-pit mining and ore transportation; Konawe had scattered showers, with rainfall of about 0.03-0.045 this week; Halmahera was the most stable, mainly cloudy with light rain. The market is currently facing a clear trend of declining grades. Although some NPI smelters had begun accepting nickel ore with grades of 1.45% and below, saprolite ore remained tight in March. At present, as of mid-March, ESDM had approved about 100 million mt of RKAB nickel ore quotas, and the remaining 160 million-170 million mt is expected to complete approval before month-end. However, due to the Eid al-Fitr holiday from March 18 to 24, approval progress may be delayed, making it difficult for the tight supply situation to ease in the short term. Demand side, as some Indonesian smelters faced resource uncertainty and had difficulty obtaining high-grade nickel ore, prices remained strong. To secure raw material supply, some smelters even raised trading bonuses. In addition, some transactions of low-grade humic soil ore also emerged in the market, with fixed prices relatively lower than those of high-grade ore. Limonite ore prices remained at low levels, mainly due to the tailings dam landslide accident at an MHP project in a certain industrial park, which kept related production lines running at low operating rates and hindered the rebound in demand. However, considering RKAB uncertainty, stockpiling demand from new projects, and growing demand from outer islands, limonite ore prices are expected to stay high later by following saprolite ore. Policy side, although rumors about the implementation and delayed release of the new tax regime continued, the specific implementation rules were still under internal review by relevant ministries. Although execution details for specific products such as NPI and MHP still awaited finalisation across ministries, current policy signals may indicate that the era of tax-free exports for Indonesia's nickel intermediate products is about to come to an end. Looking ahead, Indonesia's continued policy tightening is expected to open upside room for nickel ore prices and have a profound impact on the cost structure of the global nickel supply chain.
Mar 27, 2026 23:46As of March 24, the operating rate of 50 electric-furnace steel mills nationwide mainly producing construction materials was 40.42%, up 1.78% WoW from the previous period; the capacity utilization rate was 41.75%, up 1.88% WoW from the previous period; and daily average production of construction materials was 93,000 mt, up 4,200 mt WoW.
Mar 27, 2026 18:26March 27 News: Northern ports: South African high-grade ore was 36-37.9 yuan/mtu, up WoW from last Friday; South African semi-carbonate was 43.5-44 yuan/mtu, up WoW from last Friday; Gabon ore was 47.3-47.9 yuan/mtu, up WoW from last Friday; 46% Australian lumps were 48-48.5 yuan/mtu, up WoW from last Friday. South China ports: South African high-grade ore was 34.5-35 yuan/mtu, flat WoW from last Friday; South African semi-carbonate was 38.8-39.5 yuan/mtu, up WoW from last Friday; Gabon ore was 44-44.5 yuan/mtu, up WoW from last Friday; 46% Australian lumps were 45.2-45.7 yuan/mtu, up WoW from last Friday.
Mar 27, 2026 18:05[Zinc Oxide Operating Rates Remain Stable, End-Use Demand Shows Divergence] In terms of orders, overall demand for rubber-grade zinc oxide remained stable, but some enterprises were relatively cautious about expectations for subsequent demand from tyre factories; orders for major ceramic-grade zinc oxide producers were relatively stable, but affected by the overall weakness in the real estate market, overall demand in the sector was average......
Mar 27, 2026 15:56As the Chinese New Year holiday is around the corner, Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) hereby informs you of our metal price update arrangement during the holiday period to ensure you can make proper arra
PriceFeb 14, 2026 10:22To better serve industrial clients and more closely align with the market, SMM has added a weekly price for Vietnam 8mm copper cathode rod (CIF) processing fees, which will be officially launched on the SMM website (smm.cn) on December 19, 2025. 1. SMM 8mm Copper Cathode Rod Premium, CIF Vietnam, USD/tonne Methodology 1.1 SMM Price Assessment Methodology General Provisions Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) is a fully independent third-party service organization that does not participate in any actual transactions. Instead, it maintains close communication with buyers or sellers in the market as an observer or organizer and provides relevant services to the market. SMM continuously develops, reviews, and revises its methodology through communication with industry professionals, adopting the most common product specifications, trade terms, and trade conditions in the industry. Equal importance is given to normal transactions that meet the standard specifications. SMM reserves the right to exclude any price information deemed less reliable or unrepresentative from its price assessments. SMM publishes daily spot metal prices (or price indices, including those for the Chinese market, markets outside China, and global markets), commonly referred to as SMM prices. For each published SMM price, a corresponding methodology is established (all of which are available for reference on SMM’s official website, www.smm.cn). The methodology specifies the methods and procedures for generating and publishing SMM prices, and SMM strictly adheres to these guidelines when producing and releasing SMM prices. To align with the actual conditions of the spot market, SMM will make necessary revisions to the SMM price assessment methodology and announce these revisions on the official website www.smm.cn 28 days before their formal implementation. If you have any questions or suggestions regarding SMM prices or the methodology, please contact SMM customer service (contact information can be found on the official website www.smm.cn ). This document specifies the standards for formulating the weekly RC for 8mm Copper Cathode Rod Premium, CIF Vietnam, USD/tonne. The purpose of establishing this standard by SMM is to create a transparent and verifiable mechanism for SMM price formation. The SMM Benchmark Management Committee also regularly reviews the methodology and its assessment and publication processes. This committee oversees SMM’s methodology and compilation procedures, ensuring that the prices or indices accurately reflect the objective conditions of the physical spot market for the relevant commodities. If the committee identifies any issues, it will promptly highlight them and propose external consultation and revisions to the ongoing methodology or processes, thereby improving the quality of SMM’s published prices or indices. The committee may only propose modifications to the methodology and procedures used for future price or index assessments it cannot alter already published prices or indices. 2. Formation of Processing Fees for 8mm Copper Cathode Rod Premium, CIF Vietnam, USD/tonne. 2.1 Significance of the Price Assessment Against the backdrop of global economic integration, Vietnam is emerging as a significant driver of economic growth in Southeast Asia. On one hand, the accelerated investment in power infrastructure expansion, along with the increase in power transmission line and substation projects, has led to a surge in demand for copper rod as a core raw material. On the other hand, industrial upgrades are driving the rapid development of the electronics manufacturing sector, with numerous component and home appliance enterprises establishing operations, leading to a continuous expansion in demand for high-precision 8mm copper rod, and overall market demand is steadily rising. Under the Belt and Road cooperation framework, economic and trade ties between China and Vietnam are becoming increasingly close. Logistics channels such as cross-border railways and highways are continuously being optimized, making transportation more efficient. The implementation of policies such as tariff reductions further lowers trade costs and improves efficiency, laying a solid foundation for the expansion of the China-Vietnam copper rod trade scale. In light of this, SMM will officially launch the weekly price assessment for 8mm Copper Cathode Rod Premium, CIF Vietnam, USD/tonne starting December 19, 2025. SMM price members will be able to simultaneously access historical prices from that date. 2.2 SMM 8mm Copper Cathode Rod Premium, CIF Vietnam, USD/tonne Price Assessment Methodology 2.2.1 Product Specifications and Standards Product standards are BS EN 1997:2013 Copper and copper alloys. Copper drawing stock (wire rod)、ASTM B49-20 Standard Specification for Copper Rod for Electrical Purposes, product specifications are 8mm copper cathode rod (T1, T2), oxygen content greater than 20ppm. 2.2.2 Price Terms CIF Vietnam, Copper Cathode Rod Premium top on LME CSP, QP M+1(M stands for arrival month) 2.2.3 Payment Terms Cash, other terms normalized. Reference is made to major international payment methods (including D/P, D/A, T/T, etc.). If transactions significantly deviate from this standard, SMM will consider excluding individual samples based on trade volume. For deferred payments or letters of credit, SMM will adjust them according to the prevailing interest rate at the time to align with this standard. 2.2.4 Delivery Time Within 4 weeks. 2.2.5 Reference Transaction Volume Min 200 tones. 2.2.6 Delivery Location Main Ports of Vietnam 2.2.7 Price Release Time Every Friday at 11:30 AM Vietnam Time (except on Chinese statutory holidays and weekends). 2.2.8 Processing Fee Format Reported processing fees are provided as a range, indicating the lowest and highest prices. For example: 8mm Copper Cathode Rod Premium, CIF Vietnam, USD/tonne range $250-270/tonne, average: $260/tonne. 2.2.9 Price Collection Methodology SMM will, in accordance with the price collection confirmation agreement, have price analysts regularly collect price information from copper foil industry price contacts via phone, QQ, WeChat, fax, and email. This price information includes concluded transaction prices, the enterprise's expected most likely pending transaction prices, etc. All instant messaging content, email communications, and any records of face-to-face communications will be archived details of phone communications will be recorded and entered into the database. SMM analysts must comply with the Compliance System when reporting any forced or threatened communications from market participants, or any induced offers attempting to influence the assessment. Once published, SMM will not revise or adjust the price on the same day. 2.2.10 Standardization of Data Although SMM has standardized definitions for our prices, diversity exists in market transactions. The price of each transaction is influenced by numerous factors, including order size, brand of goods, delivery time, payment terms, etc. SMM will comprehensively consider market offers, bids, and transaction information, aligning them with our standards. Each price datum will be electronically recorded or accompanied by written records. All electronic and paper records must be archived by price collection personnel and retained long-term (at least 5 years) in secure network and physical environments. For details, please refer to the SMM Data Retention Policy. 2.2.11 Price Assessment Process The specific process is as follows: 2.3 Methodology Changes All markets change, and SMM has a responsibility to ensure that the methodology for market reports evolves with the market. Therefore, SMM will regularly conduct internal reviews of the methodology's appropriateness based on industry feedback. For all substantive but non-urgent potential modifications, SMM will follow a formal external consultation process. Major changes will then be announced with a notice period of at least 28 days, inviting industry comments, unless special circumstances, particularly force majeure (natural disasters, war, exchange bankruptcy, etc.), necessitate a shorter notice period. SMM is committed to carefully considering all comments on proposed methodology changes, but in some cases, it may be necessary to proceed with changes contrary to the wishes of some market participants. Additionally, SMM has a formal methodology consultation process. SMM commits to holding a formal consultation on the methodology every three years. The date of the last consultation and the deadline for the next consultation committed by SMM are located at the top of the methodology document. 2.4 Compliance with SMM Policies All relevant SMM employees must not only comply with the methodology published by SMM but also adhere to SMM's internal standards and policies. These include: SMM Conflict of Interest Policy, SMM Whistleblower Policy, SMM Error Correction Policy, SMM Methodology Review Consultation and Change Policy, SMM Complaints Policy, etc. Welcome more relevant enterprises in the industry chain to participate and support SMM in better serving related enterprises in the Copper Cathode Rod industry chain. For inquiries, please contact: Shanghai Metals Market Copper Research Team, Xinyang Wang Contact: 021-20707846, +86 15762822325
PriceDec 11, 2025 15:29Dear User: Hello! In recent years, China has formed multiple consumption centers for spot aluminum ingot trading. With the development of the aluminum industry chain in the Southwest region, market attention to the Southwest region has gradually increased. Among them, Guangyuan is an important hub for aluminum trading in Sichuan, Shaanxi, Gansu, and Chongqing, and is also the location of the designated settlement warehouse for aluminum futures of the Shanghai Futures Exchange , where aluminum product trading has become increasingly frequent. Therefore, there is an urgent need to compile and release a price index that can fully reflect the spot price of A00 aluminum ingots in the Guangyuan region of our country, so as to objectively, truthfully, and timely reflect the supply and demand situation of the A00 aluminum ingot Spot Market in our country. Based on this, SMM will start to newly release the SMM A00 Aluminum (Guangyuan) and Premium Spot Price Points from November 20, 2025. 1. General Principles of SMM Price Methodology Shanghai Metals Market (hereinafter referred to as SMM) is a completely independent third-party service provider that does not participate in any substantial transactions. Instead, it maintains close communication with the buyers or sellers of transactions as a market observer or organizer and provides relevant services to the market. SMM continuously formulates, reviews, and revises its methodology through communication with industry insiders, adopts the most common product specifications, trade terms, and trade conditions in the industry, and equally values normal transactions that meet the specification standards. SMM reserves the right to exclude any price information deemed to be of poor reliability or unrepresentative from its quotation judgment. SMM publishes daily metal spot prices (or price indices, including those for the Chinese market, markets outside China, and the global market), commonly referred to as SMM Prices. SMM has developed corresponding methodologies for all published SMM Prices (which will be published on SMM's official website www.smm.cn for reference), and the methodologies specify the methods and procedures for the generation and publication of SMM Prices, with SMM Prices being generated and published strictly in accordance with the provisions of the methodologies. To align with the actual situation of the Spot Market, SMM will make necessary revisions to the SMM Price Methodology and announce them on the SMM official website prior to formal implementation. If you have any questions or suggestions regarding SMM prices and their methodology, please contact SMM Client Server staff (please check the contact information on the SMM official website www.smm.cn). 2. Formation of the Spot Price Point of SMM A00 (Guangyuan) 2.1 Definitions The SMM A00 (Guangyuan) Spot Price is an indicative price generated and published by SMM in accordance with this methodology, which can be adopted by both trading parties as a reference basis for the settlement of spot trade of A00 aluminum ingots in the Guangyuan region. This price reflects the most likely range of spot transaction prices before the release time of the SMM A00 aluminum ingot spot quotation on each complete working day. This price is based on the trading conditions in the Guangyuan region on the day, and other regions can adjust the actual settlement price during trading based on the market correlation between different regions on the basis of this price. 2.2 Price Generation Method SMM obtains information on the spot price of local A00 aluminum ingots in Guangyuan through standard price benchmarking methods, including the indicative transaction price provided by the price benchmarking unit, the existing transaction spot premium or discount, and the indicative transaction spot premium or discount, etc. 2.3 Product Standards A00 Aluminum Ingot: Complies with the requirements for the "Al99.70" grade in GB/T 1196-2023 Aluminum Ingots for Remelting. 2.4 Pricing Unit and Presentation Form Unit: (Renminbi) Yuan/ton. Presented in interval form, it is a tax-inclusive price (including 13% Value Added Tax) Daily quotations include the highest, lowest, and average prices of SMM A00 Aluminum (Guangyuan) and its premium or discount. 2.5 Delivery Method Same-day delivery, pick up by the buyer at Guangyuan Warehouse 2.6 Release Time 10:15 AM every working day (excluding legal holidays and weekends) 3. Methodology Changes All markets are changing, and SMM has the responsibility to ensure that the methodology for market reports changes in tandem with the market. Therefore, SMM will conduct internal reviews of the appropriateness of the methodology on a regular basis based on industry feedback. For all potential modifications that are substantial but not urgent, SMM will follow the formal external consultation process. Then, significant changes will be announced, with a notice period of at least 28 days provided to invite industry professionals to comment, unless special circumstances, especially force majeure (natural disasters, wars, exchange bankruptcies, etc.), result in a shortened notice period. SMM commits to carefully reviewing all comments regarding the proposed methodological changes, but in some cases, may have to make changes to the methodology against the wishes of some market participants. In addition, SMM has a formal methodology consultation process. SMM commits to conducting a formal consultation on the A00 aluminum quotation once every year. The date of the last consultation and the deadline for SMM's commitment to hold the next consultation are located at the top of the methodology document. In addition, SMM has a formal methodology consultation process. SMM is committed to serving enterprises in the aluminum industry chain and reducing their transaction costs. The newly added price points will be updated at 10:15 a.m. every working day. Please stay tuned. If you have any feedback, please send it to 021-51595811 (Howard Yang). Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network Information Technology Joint Stock Company Aluminum Business Unit 2025.11.14
PriceNov 14, 2025 18:13