As the core of the global magnet supply chain, China's export data reflects geopolitical shifts. From 2022 to 2025, export volumes tracked the move from decoupling to export controls. Now in 2026, changing geopolitics is driving a new export cycle.

The champagne corks in Brussels may have popped too soon. On January 14, 2026, the European Commission released a soaring press statement celebrating the official entry of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) into its "Definitive Regime." In the official narrative, this was a triumph of digitalization: over 10,000 customs declarations verified in real-time, with the system running as smooth as silk. However, if we shift the lens from the desks of Brussels to the customs brokers in Hamburg, the steel traders in Rotterdam, and the customs officials currently drowning in paperwork across the continent, a starkly different picture emerges. What we are witnessing is a carefully whitewashed administrative "cardiac arrest." Forensic-level investigation into the first seven weeks of 2026 reveals that the landing of CBAM is far from the glitz claimed by officials. On the contrary, plagued by suspected low-level data errors, catastrophic approval backlogs, and teetering temporary patches, the mechanism is currently mired in a dual crisis of legality and operations. I. The Absurd "Default Values": When Taiwan’s Stainless Steel "Became" Indonesian Coal If one were to find a single representative footnote for this chaos, the "Default Value Controversy" would be the undisputed choice. For importers unable to obtain precise carbon emission data from upstream factories, the EU’s official "default values" are a lifeline. This was supposed to be a baseline derived from rigorous scientific calculation. Yet, in the 2,400-page document released on December 31, 2025, mere hours before the new rules took effect, industry experts witnessed a jaw-dropping scene. This is not merely a margin of error; it looks more like a metallurgical farce. Industry bodies have pointed out that when the Directorate-General for Taxation and Customs Union (DG TAXUD) established the carbon emission default values for stainless steel from the Taiwan region, the data tables contained suspected structural errors, bearing traces of a "copy-paste" job from Indonesian data structures. The consequence? In the physical world, processing a steel slab into a precision tube requires significant electricity, meaning the finished product should logically have higher emissions than the semi-finished one. Yet, in the table published by the EU, industry players have flagged phenomena where "Taiwanese semi-finished stainless steel allegedly emits more than the finished product," vehemently questioning its rationality. In metallurgy, this is impossible; in a bureaucratic Excel sheet, it became legal reference. More fatally, Taiwan’s stainless steel industry relies primarily on Electric Arc Furnaces (EAF) and scrap recycling, resulting in a relatively low carbon footprint. In contrast, the Indonesian stainless steel industry is highly dependent on Nickel Pig Iron (NPI) and coal-fired power, yielding extremely high emissions. This suspected "slip of the hand" by the EU is akin to forcefully assigning the calorie count of a rich braised pork belly to a light garden salad. This has directly resulted in European buyers of Taiwanese stainless steel facing artificially inflated financial costs. II. A 27% Pass Rate: The 15,000-Strong Army Blocked at the Gate If data controversies are "soft tissue damage," the backlog in administrative approval is a fatal "compound fracture." The core rule of the CBAM definitive stage is simple: without "authorized declarant" status, you cannot import. This means every company wishing to ship a screw or an aluminum sheet into Europe must first secure an "entry ticket." The reality is brutal. According to the Commission’s official press release, by January 7, over 12,000 operators across the EU had submitted applications, with just over 4,100 approved (a pass rate of roughly 34%). However, industry estimates suggest that by late February, applications swelled to approximately 15,000, causing the pass rate to slide to around 27%. Where did the massive remainder go? They are stuck in the overwhelmed approval systems of National Competent Authorities (NCAs). In Germany, due to the deluge of applications, logistics giant DSV issued a public notice stating it could not support clients with CBAM authorization and registration, bluntly forcing thousands of SMEs to crash into the complex reporting system like headless flies. In France, the labyrinthine digital authentication process has turned the application into a maze only a hacker could navigate. To prevent European ports from paralysis, the EU was forced to administer a "painkiller": Customs Code Y238. This is a temporary "hall pass" allowing companies that applied before March 31 but have not yet been approved to keep goods moving for now. But make no mistake, this merely lengthens the fuse on the bomb. III. The Strategy of Silence and the Risk of "Retroactive Reckoning" Faced with industry skepticism, Brussels seems to have chosen the oldest PR strategy: silence. Although industry giants like the Gerber Group issued detailed technical warnings as early as January 9, pointing out the absurdity of the Taiwan/Indonesia data, the industry notes that as of late February, no official "Corrigendum" has been issued to legally revise the default values. The updated Excel version released on February 13 merely added a disclaimer: "information only." This rigid attitude transfers all risk to the enterprises. For companies currently relying on the Y238 temporary arrangement, the real danger is not "whether goods are released," but "whether they will be retroactively penalized." Competent authorities have publicly warned that if an authorization application is ultimately rejected, member states can, under Article 26 (2)/(2a) of the CBAM Regulation, retroactively penalize goods imported during the waiting period. Such fines can, in certain cases, reach 3 to 5 times the standard penalty. In other words, this is not a procedural flaw; it is a compliance risk that could land directly on cash flows and balance sheets. Conclusion: Who Pays the Price for Hubris? CBAM was supposed to be the crown jewel of the EU’s climate ambition, a lighthouse for global green trade. But the opening scene of 2026 makes it look more like an unfinished Tower of Babel. From the "data ghosts" haunting the industry to the severely backlogged approval channels, this "hard landing" exposes a chasm between regulatory ambition and administrative capability. For European importers, every day now is an exercise in navigating through fog. They are forced to calculate not just carbon emissions, but the cost of policy uncertainty. And for the European Commission, if it cannot step out of this arrogant "silence" and clarify these glaring operational controversies, what CBAM loses will be more than just data accuracy; it will be the trust of its global trading partners.

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) announced its best-ever performance for the same period in history in Q1, with revenue growth approaching 30% and net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company growing by over 160%. However, as the revenue growth fell short of the previously announced performance guidance, it faced market skepticism. After the market opened today, SMIC's A-share price remained sluggish, dropping by over 4%, while its Hong Kong shares once fell by more than 7.7%. At the earnings conference held by SMIC before the market opened today, Zhao Haijun, the company's co-CEO, stated that the growth in performance was mainly driven by customers pulling forward shipments due to changes in the international situation, increased demand for bulk products driven by domestic policies such as trade-in consumption subsidies, and the bottoming out and restocking in the industrial and automotive industries . However, due to unexpected events that caused production fluctuations in Q1, the company's revenue growth fell short of expectations, and the impact would continue into Q2. Unexpected Yield Fluctuations in Q1 Expected to Persist into Q2 In Q1 this year, SMIC's overall shipments were equivalent to 2.29 million 8-inch wafers, representing a 15% increase QoQ. According to the performance guidance previously provided by SMIC, the QoQ revenue growth for Q1 2025 was expected to be between 6% and 8%. However, the actual QoQ growth was only 1.8%. Regarding the revenue growth in Q1 falling short of expectations, Zhao Haijun explained that the main reason was production fluctuations at the company's factories, which led to a decrease in the average selling price (ASP) in the second half of Q1 . Zhao Haijun further explained that after the earnings conference held in February this year, unexpected situations occurred during SMIC's annual maintenance, affecting product process precision and yield. Meanwhile, during the equipment verification process, SMIC discovered that the performance and process capabilities of some equipment needed improvement, leading to fluctuations in product yield . From the financial data, these events also directly triggered a series of chain reactions at SMIC in Q1, including a decrease in the average selling price, a significant increase in capacity utilization rate, and a reduction in R&D investment. In terms of capacity, it was introduced that due to a large number of urgent orders from customers in Q1, SMIC increased the allocation of more capacity to production to support rapid customer shipments, resulting in an increase in the utilization rate of both 12-inch and 8-inch capacities. The overall capacity utilization rate in Q1 increased by 4.1 percentage points QoQ. "Under such circumstances, the company's R&D and wafer testing speeds were somewhat constrained." In Q1 this year, SMIC's research and development expenditure decreased from US$217 million in Q4 2024 to US$149 million. However, Zhao Haijun also stated that with the continuous release of the company's capacity, R&D investment would recover in the future .SMIC previously insisted on allocating 8% to 10% of its revenue to R&D investment. Additionally, after discovering production line issues in Q1, SMIC, while handling affected wafers and negotiating shipments with customers, chose to lower product prices at the receiving end to alleviate customer concerns, thereby impacting ASP (average selling price) and revenue. However, Zhao Haijun emphasized that the aforementioned incident was an isolated event, and no fundamental changes had actually occurred for the company. The impact is expected to continue for the next four to five months (i.e., the first half of Q2 and Q3), with some time required subsequently to bring the quality and yield of production line wafers up to the highest standards. Mobile phone customers may lower their stockpiling targets in Q3. Regarding pricing strategies, Zhao Haijun stated that SMIC would remain steady and would not proactively lower prices to secure orders, aligning itself generally with peers. However, at the same time, Zhao Haijun noted that a downward trend in prices within the foundry industry could currently be observed. In response to analysts' questions about current demand changes across different market applications, Zhao Haijun said that the market had previously anticipated significant growth in smartphones and computers, leading to substantial downstream customer stockpiling. However, according to SMIC's observations in May this year, the industry's total shipment targets for mobile phones set at the beginning of the year were overly optimistic and are expected to be revised, with a potential downward adjustment in customer stockpiling targets in Q3. PC product sales have been stable but lack significant growth, and downstream stockpiling is nearly complete. Only if the company lowers prices will customers have further stockpiling intentions; otherwise, orders will decline. The overall panel market, including TVs and tablets, is experiencing oversupply. These factors have exerted downward pressure on prices in the foundry industry. In terms of platforms, Zhao Haijun stated that amid a broadly mild market recovery, demand for BCD, MCU, and specialty memory is robust, with overall revenue increasing by approximately 20% QoQ. In the high-voltage driver and HV-CMOS sectors, constrained by capacity, AMOLED small-screen display driver platforms utilizing 40nm and 28nm technologies are in undersupply. In image sensors and signal processors, SMIC has increased its deployment of technology platforms and capacity expansion to better meet the requirements of new products. Responding to tariff impacts: Customers' advance procurement brings order growth. Zhao Haijun said that after the emergence of new market factors this year, there have been no significant changes in the fundamentals of Q2 compared to Q1. Customers are responding calmly, and the company's capacity utilization rate remains high. The company has observed positive signals of a bottom-out rebound across various industries, including industrial and automotive sectors. The localization shift of the industry chain continues to strengthen, with more wafer foundry demand returning domestically. The market is experiencing anxiety triggered by changes in tariff policies. "After the tariff policy was introduced, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) conducted internal calculations and had in-depth discussions with suppliers and domestic and overseas customers. The government also engaged in close communication with the industry. In fact, the direct impact on the industry was very small, less than one percentage point," said Zhao Haijun. Due to the exemption of some tariffs and the establishment of a diversified supply, semiconductor industry foundries can absorb the impact of tariffs at the procurement level. Due to uncertainty about the future, downstream customers hope to stock up on inventory before the tariff increase. Zhao Haijun stated that this demand has indeed led to an increase in orders this year, but overall, the impact on SMIC is relatively small. At least, sales in the second half of this year and next year will not be affected. According to his analysis, the main reasons are that SMIC's capacity is fully utilized, with no significant increase at present, and there are also transportation capacity constraints such as sea and air freight. "Procurement itself has brought about an increase and stability in orders, but it will not be the most significant part of SMIC's current revenue," he said. Going forward, "it is worth paying attention to whether the tariff policy will have a hard landing, whether market stimulus and infrastructure inventory have overdrawn future demand, and whether demand for commodities will decline after price increases caused by the new tariffs," Zhao Haijun said.

SMM April 16 News: In the metal market, both domestic and overseas metal markets generally fell overnight, with only LME nickel and SHFE nickel rising. LME nickel increased by 1.49%, and SHFE nickel rose by 0.97%. Other metals declined, with LME zinc down by 0.83%, LME lead and LME tin both dropping by more than 0.7% (LME lead fell by 0.76%, LME tin decreased by 0.72%), and the rest of the metals saw declines of less than 0.7%. The main alumina contract rose by 0.78%. In the ferrous metals series, the performance was mixed, with stainless steel up by 0.16%, and iron ore flat at 709 yuan/mt. In the coking coal and coke sector, coking coal fell by 0.61%, while coke increased by 1.42%. In the precious metals sector, COMEX gold rose by 0.64% overnight, and after opening on the morning of April 16, it continued to climb, repeatedly hitting new historical highs. By around 8:10, COMEX gold reached a peak of $3,273.2/oz. COMEX silver increased by 0.43%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose by 0.73%, reaching a historical high of 766.86 yuan/g, continuing to set new records, and SHFE silver increased by 0.59%. As of 6:42 on April 16, the overnight closing market. Click to view the SMM futures data dashboard. On the macro front, domestically, the "Qiushi" magazine published an important article by General Secretary Xi Jinping titled "Accelerating the Construction of a Cultural Power," which outlines five aspects for accelerating the construction of a cultural power. First, unwaveringly follow the path of socialist cultural development with Chinese characteristics. Second, focus on stimulating the cultural innovation and creativity of the entire nation. Third, always keep cultural construction focused on and rooted in people. Fourth, continue the Chinese cultural heritage through creative transformation and innovative development. Fifth, continuously enhance the national cultural soft power and the influence of Chinese culture. Premier Li Qiang of the State Council conducted a survey in Beijing on April 15, emphasizing the need to calmly respond to the difficulties and challenges brought by external shocks, to promote consumption, expand domestic demand, and strengthen the domestic circulation with greater efforts, further unleashing the vitality and potential of China's super-large market. Additionally, Li Qiang emphasized the need to focus on promoting the construction of "good houses," accelerate the establishment of a new model for real estate development, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian presided over a regular press conference on April 15, emphasizing that China is the market of the world and an opportunity for all countries. Faced with external uncertainties, China will persist in "shaking hands" rather than "waving fists," "dismantling walls" rather than "building fortresses," and "connecting" rather than "decoupling." In terms of the US dollar, it rose by 0.46% overnight. Tuesday's data showed that US import prices unexpectedly fell in March due to rising energy product costs. Trading has been relatively calm so far this week, but investors remain cautious as they await further clarity on tariffs. Most US markets will be closed for the Good Friday holiday this Friday, but the foreign exchange market will remain open. Investors are currently awaiting a speech by Fed Chairman Powell scheduled for Wednesday for more clues on the interest rate path. In other currencies, the US dollar rose against the euro and yen on Tuesday, showing temporary signs of rebound after the US dollar index fell by more than 3% last week. However, investors remain cautious due to concerns about the impact of US President Trump's trade tariffs on the US economy. The European Central Bank is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the end of its two-day meeting on Thursday. The US dollar rose by 0.12% against the yen to 143.16 yen, not far from the six-month low of 142.05 hit last Friday. The US dollar rose by 0.91% against the Swiss franc to 0.822 francs, after falling to a 10-year low last week. The pound rose by 0.15% to $1.3209, having earlier touched $1.3252, the highest since October 3. The Australian dollar rose by 0.32% against the US dollar to $0.6345; the New Zealand dollar rose by 0.39% against the US dollar to $0.5899, having earlier touched $0.5943, the highest since November 13. In terms of data, today will see the release of China's March industrial added value year-to-date, March total retail sales of consumer goods year-to-date, Q1 GDP year-on-year, Q1 GDP total, Q1 GDP year-to-date, March total electricity consumption year-on-year, March urban fixed asset investment year-to-date, UK March core CPI year-on-year, UK March retail price index year-on-year, UK March unadjusted input PPI year-on-year, Eurozone March core harmonized CPI year-on-year unadjusted final, US March core retail sales month-on-month, US March retail sales year-on-year, US March industrial production month-on-month, US March manufacturing output month-on-month, US March industrial production year-on-year seasonally adjusted, and Canada's April 17 overnight lending rate. Additionally, the National Bureau of Statistics will release the monthly report on residential sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities, and the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the national economic performance. The WTO will release the 2025 Global Trade Outlook report. Fed Governor Lisa Cook will speak, ECB President Christine Lagarde and European Council President Costa will hold an informal dinner and exchange views, 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester will participate in a Q&A session, ECB President Christine Lagarde and European Council President Costa will hold an informal dinner and exchange views, the Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision and monetary policy report, and Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem will hold a monetary policy press conference. In the crude oil sector, US oil closed at $61.53/barrel overnight, while Brent oil fell by 0.05%. Investors digested the latest news on the US's fluctuating tariff policies and tried to clarify to what extent trade disputes would reduce global economic growth and oil demand. The uncertainty of US trade policy has brought uncertainty to the global oil market, prompting OPEC to lower its demand forecast on Monday. The IEA predicted on Tuesday that global oil demand in 2025 is expected to grow at the slowest pace in five years due to concerns about the impact of US trade tariffs on economic growth. Tariff uncertainty has led several banks, including UBS, BNP Paribas, and HSBC, to lower their forecasts for crude oil prices. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said, "If the trade dispute escalates further, our downside risk scenario—a deepening US recession and a hard landing for the Chinese economy—could push Brent crude prices to $40-60/barrel in the coming months." Concerns about Trump's tariffs, along with increased supply from the OPEC+ group, including Russia, have led to a drop in oil prices of about 13% so far this month. Data released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) on Tuesday showed that US crude oil inventories rose last week, while gasoline and distillate inventories fell. Data showed that in the week ending April 11, US crude oil inventories increased by 2.4 million barrels. Gasoline inventories decreased by 3 million barrels, and distillate inventories decreased by 3.2 million barrels. Analysts surveyed earlier had expected US crude oil inventories to increase by 500,000 barrels last week, gasoline inventories to decrease by 1.6 million barrels, and distillate inventories to decrease by 1.2 million barrels. The US Energy Information Administration will release its weekly crude oil inventory report at 22:30 on Wednesday. (Wenhua Comprehensive)

SMM April 7 News: Metal Market: As of the daytime close, base metals in the domestic market generally fell. SHFE copper hit the lower limit during the day, briefly opened, but hit the lower limit again shortly after the afternoon session opened, reported at 73,640 yuan/mt. SHFE tin fell 8.57%, SHFE nickel fell 7.51%, SHFE aluminum and SHFE lead both fell over 3%, with SHFE aluminum down 3.67% and SHFE lead down 3.11%. SHFE zinc had the smallest drop, at 2.23%. Alumina main contract fell 3.82%. In addition, lithium carbonate main contract fell 3%, silicon metal main contract fell 2.7%, polysilicon main contract fell 0.67%, and the European container shipping main contract plunged 10.55%. In the overseas market, as of 15:09, base metals except LME copper and LME aluminum all fell. LME tin led the decline with a 3.25% drop, while LME lead, LME zinc, and LME nickel all fell over 1%, with LME lead down 1.52%, LME zinc down 1.88%, and LME nickel down 1.48%. LME aluminum rose 0.32%, and LME copper edged up 0.04%. The ferrous metals series also collectively declined, with stainless steel and iron ore both falling over 3%, stainless steel down 3.87%, iron ore down 3.36%, rebar down 2.59%, and HRC down 3.06%. In the coking coal and coke sector, coking coal fell 2.06%, and coke fell 2.21%. In the precious metals sector, as of 15:09, COMEX gold rose 0.39%, and COMEX silver rose 2.26%. Domestically, SHFE gold fell 2.85%, and SHFE silver plunged 9.03%. As of 15:09 today, click to view the SMM market board. Macro Front: Domestic: The Ministry of Commerce will hold a press conference at 3 PM on April 10, 2025. The spokesperson will introduce recent key work in the commerce sector and answer questions from reporters. The PBOC announced that China's foreign exchange reserves at the end of March were $3.241 trillion, up $13.4 billion from the end of February, an increase of 0.42%. In March 2025, influenced by macroeconomic data, fiscal and monetary policies, and expectations of major economies, the US dollar index fell, and global financial asset prices generally declined. The combined effects of exchange rate conversion and asset price changes led to an increase in foreign exchange reserves for the month. China's economic operation remained stable and progressive, with a package of existing and incremental policies continuing to take effect, and high-quality development steadily advancing, providing support for the basic stability of foreign exchange reserves. On April 7, the central parity rate of the RMB in the interbank foreign exchange market was 7.1980 yuan per US dollar. US Dollar: As of 15:09, the US dollar index fell 0.51%. Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in March recorded 228,000, higher than the market expectation of 135,000. Traders reduced bets on a US Fed rate cut in May, expecting June to be the possible starting point for rate cuts. They continued to bet on four rate cuts by the US Fed by the end of the year. Short-term interest rate futures traders expect the US Fed to cut rates by 50 basis points by June. On April 4, local time, Fed Chairman Powell stated that the US Fed was shocked by the scope of tariffs imposed by US President Trump, indicating that the impact of tariffs on the economy would be greater than previously thought. He also warned that it was too early to know what the right response from the US Fed should be. "We are facing a highly uncertain outlook, with risks of rising unemployment and inflation," he said, adding that the US Fed has time to wait for more data before deciding how monetary policy should respond. This week, attention should be paid to the March inflation data of China and the US. Data: Today, Germany's seasonally adjusted industrial production month-on-month for February, Germany's working-day adjusted industrial production year-on-year for February, Germany's seasonally adjusted exports month-on-month for February, the Eurozone's Sentix investor confidence index for April, the Eurozone's retail sales month-on-month for February, the Eurozone's retail sales year-on-year for February, the global leading indicator of industrial production cycle turning points for March, and Canada's leading indicator month-on-month for March will be released. Crude Oil: As of 15:09, oil prices in both markets fell over 3%, with US oil down 3.74% and Brent oil down 3.54%. After the implementation of the new US tariff policy, market concerns about the risk of a global economic recession significantly increased, further pressuring the demand expectations of the crude oil market. Citibank predicts that a 10% tariff could reduce the global oil demand growth expectation for 2025 from 900,000 barrels/day to 600,000 barrels/day. The global crude oil demand outlook itself is already not optimistic. In recent years, driven by the strategic goal of carbon neutrality, major economies have accelerated the transformation of their energy structures, and the substitution process of renewable energy for traditional fossil fuels has been speeding up. Currently, the recovery of major global economies is weak, and oil consumption growth has generally slowed. Coupled with the impact of the new US government's tariff policy, major institutions have raised the probability predictions of a hard landing for the US economy and a global economic recession, and systemic risks in financial markets have sharply increased. On the other hand, OPEC+, as the main support for international oil prices, surprisingly decided to significantly increase production in May, putting more pressure on the already weak crude oil market. According to a statement released on the OPEC website on April 3, OPEC+ agreed to increase oil supply to the market by 411,000 barrels/day in May, three times the original plan. This move mainly targets Kazakhstan, Iraq, and Russia, which have repeatedly exceeded production quotas, aiming to warn them of the potential consequences of their violations through practical actions. SMM Daily Review: Trade conflict escalation hits aluminum prices hard, secondary aluminum prices fall more slowly [ADC12 Price Daily Review]. [SMM MHP Daily Review] April 7, Indonesian MHP prices pulled back. [SMM Nickel Sulphate Daily Review] April 7, nickel sulphate prices remained stable. Silver market opened low and rose high, traders took a wait-and-see approach [SMM Daily Review].

[SMM Analysis] In terms of macroeconomics this week, the US ADP employment data hit a three-year low within the week. The yield on US Treasury bonds continued to decline, approaching the 3.70 threshold, with the inversion situation intensifying instead of easing. The probability of traders betting on a 50BP rate cut for the first time in September once rose to 45% in the middle of the week. Although the rebound in PMI data has eased market concerns about a hard landing of the economy, the potential risk of recession still changed the capital market's perspective on asset valuation. Goldman Sachs reversed its previous bullish stance in the middle of the week, lowering its forecast for the average copper price in 2025 by nearly $5,000 per ton...