Capacity-wise, according to incomplete statistics, China’s alkaline electrolyzer market stands at 43.77 GW, and the PEM electrolyzer market at 2.7 GW. This week, no offline delivery information was publicly available. Project-related updates: Jiyuan (Siping) Green Energy Co., Ltd.: SPIC Green Energy issued the termination announcement for the centralized tender of the 12th batch of infrastructure projects in 2026. The D12-01 Biochar Preparation Unit EPC General Contracting Section under the subsidiary Lishu Wind and Solar-Based Green Hydrogen Coupled with Biomass Green Methanol Project has been officially terminated. The reason cited was notification from the bid inviter, without disclosure of details such as project adjustments or plan changes. It is understood that this section planned to build a new biochar preparation unit with an annual capacity of 240,000 mt, adopting an end-to-end EPC general contracting model covering supporting systems including biomass pretreatment, drying, torrefaction, and cooling, as well as a carbon shaping core system, heat supply, conveying, civil works, and intelligentization. Huawang (Qingdao) Hydrogen Technology Group Co., Ltd.: Re-tender announcement for the general contracting of the hydrogen purification station project at the Hydrogen Industrial Park. The project is located in Dongjiakou Chemical Park, Huangdao District, Qingdao, with a total investment of 46.2968 million yuan, an engineering cost of 27 million yuan, a maximum bid ceiling of 26.8 million yuan, and a design fee ceiling of 200,000 yuan. The site covers 720 m² and includes one 5,000 Nm³/h PSA purification unit for upgrading hydrogen-rich tail gas, designed to produce over 3,600 mt/year of high-purity hydrogen with a purity ≥ 99.999%, meeting China’s national standards for vehicle-grade hydrogen. Guohua (Ningxia) New Energy Co., Ltd.: Open tender for the PC construction general contracting of the integrated hydrogen production portion of the Solar-Storage-Hybrid Off-Grid Hydrogen Production Key Technology Research and Demonstration Project. The project is located south of the Qingshuiying hydrogen production station in Ningdong Town, covering about 33 mu, with utilities relying on the existing hydrogen station. It plans six hydrogen production trains — Train E is a 1,000 Nm³/h hybrid pilot unit; Trains F through J consist of five new hydrogen production systems each rated at 1,000 Nm³/h (maximum operating load 1,200 Nm³/h), each paired with an 800 Nm³/h alkaline electrolyzer, a 200 Nm³/h PEM electrolyzer, and purification equipment, achieving hydrogen purity of 99.999%. China Coal Green Energy (Ordos) Energy Technology Co., Ltd. : The prequalification results for the basic design of the first-phase hydrogen-ammonia project and supporting utilities of the Uxin Banner Wind and Solar-Based Hydrogen-to-Ammonia Integrated Project have been published. Wuhuan Engineering Co., Ltd. ranked first with a bid price of 1.698 million yuan. Goldwind Green Hydrogen Technology (Xing’an League) Co., Ltd. : The Xing’an League Goldwind Science & Technology Wind-to-Hydrogen (Phase III) Project has released its first environmental impact assessment public notice. The project is located in the Xing'an League Economic and Technological Development Zone, an expansion project with a hydrogen production capacity of 160,000 Nm³/h. It is being constructed in three phases: the first and second phases each have a hydrogen production capacity of 32,000 Nm³/h, and upon completion of the third phase, total self-owned green hydrogen capacity will reach 224,000 Nm³/h, with an additional 56,000 Nm³/h of green hydrogen purchased externally. The supporting green methanol project has a combined capacity of 1.575 million mt across the three phases. Pre-construction work is currently progressing in an orderly manner. Guohua (Rudong) New Energy Co., Ltd.: The solar-hydrogen-energy storage integrated project has been fully completed and put into operation. It is the largest project of its kind in China and a key national PV base project, integrating PV, energy storage, and green electricity hydrogen production facilities to build a complete green electricity industry chain. The project generates 468 million kWh of electricity annually, sufficient to meet the power needs of nearly 200,000 households, and reduces carbon dioxide emissions by more than 300,000 mt per year. The energy storage system supports stable grid operation and enhances new energy consumption levels. The project produces 482 mt of high-purity green hydrogen annually, achieving zero-carbon production, with the green hydrogen supplied directly to the Yangtze River Delta region. The entire system has been commissioned and all indicators meet the standards. CSSC (Handan) Peric Hydrogen Technologies Co., Ltd.: The Shuangyashan Jixian electrolyzer project has completed filing. It is invested and constructed by Heilongjiang Hai Rui Ke Energy Technology Co., Ltd. The project is located in Jixian County, Shuangyashan City, with a total investment of 612 million yuan, including fixed asset investment of 238.7 million yuan, and a construction period of two years. It is planned to build a new production line with an annual output of 500 sets of 1,000 Nm³/h alkaline electrolyzers and complete hydrogen production equipment, with a total capacity of 2.5 GW. The project covers an area of 63.23 mu, where factory buildings, office buildings, and supporting facilities will be constructed, and equipment such as CNC machining, welding, assembly, and detection equipment will be procured. Junrui Green Hydrogen (Alxa League) Energy Co., Ltd.: A change announcement for the winning bid result of the first phase of the 14,400 mt/year green hydrogen base project in the Alxa High-tech Zone has been released. The original first-ranked winning candidate, a consortium led by Xinjiang Xingyu Construction Engineering Co., Ltd., failed to collect the bid acceptance notice within the specified time as required. According to the tender document provisions, this is deemed an automatic forfeiture of the winning qualification. After this change, the second-ranked winning candidate, a consortium led by Guangxi Construction Engineering Group No.4 Construction Engineering Co., Ltd., becomes the project's winning bidder. The winning bid amount is 915,185,806.17 yuan, and the project duration is 18 months (549 calendar days). The project had previously completed the public announcement of winning candidates and the release of the initial winning bid result in April. China Coal Green Energy (Ordos) Energy Technology Co., Ltd. : The winning bid result for the design and survey services of the first phase of China Coal Green Energy (Ordos) Uxin Banner wind-solar hydrogen production and ammonia synthesis integrated project's hydrogen production, storage, and transportation engineering has been announced. China Power Engineering Consulting Group North China Electric Power Design Institute Co., Ltd. won the bid for 4.75 million yuan. The project is located in Uxin Banner, Ordos. Phase I will construct large-scale electrolytic water-based hydrogen production equipment, spherical tanks, and solid-state hydrogen storage facilities, with a total hydrogen storage capacity of 308,000 Nm³, accompanied by supporting systems for hydrogen transport and automatic control. The project encompasses the entire industry chain of wind and solar power generation, hydrogen production and storage, and ammonia synthesis. Gansu Huanshui Energy Chemical Co., Ltd. : Gansu Huanshui Energy Chemical issued the tender announcement for the EPC contract of electrolytic hydrogen production supporting the Huadian flexible ammonia project, a key project under the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT). Located in the Tianshui Chemical Park, Huan County, Qingyang, Gansu, the project covers an area of 524.43 mu. It will construct new facilities for sodium chloride electrolysis and mercury-free polyethylene and related supporting infrastructure, with a total investment of 2.6112 billion yuan. Relying on green electricity for production, it will produce 31.50 million Nm³ of hydrogen annually, primarily supplying the flexible ammonia project. The construction period is 24 months, and consortium bids are allowed, with a maximum of 4 members; the lead partner must possess construction qualifications. Sinopec Xinxing Xinjiang Green Hydrogen New Energy Co., Ltd. : The candidate for the general construction contracting (Section 1) of the new-type electrolyzer industrial application demonstration project was announced, with Sinopec Henan Oil Construction Engineering Co., Ltd. ranking first. The project will build multiple electrolyzer testing platforms, along with supporting civil engineering, substation, automatic control, and fire protection facilities, covering construction, material procurement, and subsequent maintenance and related work. Zhongxiang Fuguang Energy Technology Co., Ltd.: The integrated energy project coupling green electricity-based hydrogen production with CO₂ capture has been filed in Zhongxiang city, Jingmen, Hubei. With a total investment of 2.8 billion yuan, the project focuses on green hydrogen preparation, direct air carbon capture, and green fuel synthesis. Once completed, it is expected to produce 10,000 mt of green hydrogen, 10,000 mt of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), and 150,000 mt of China VI standard diesel annually, with construction scheduled to start in February 2027. The project site is in Zhongxiang city, planned to lease 1,000 mu of land, and will construct 260,000 m² of new factory buildings, a 20,000 m² standardized hydrogen storage yard, and supporting auxiliary facilities, procuring 216 units (sets) of core equipment including electrolyzers, storage tanks, and control systems. Shanghai Yiwei Industrial Technology Co., Ltd.: won the bid for the general contracting project of the 1500Nm³/h integrated biomethane-based hydrogen production and refueling station in Pinggu Mafang for Beijing Gas. This project is Pinggu's first integrated hydrogen production and refueling demonstration project and a key demonstration project for Beijing Gas to promote green energy transition. The project is configured with three Hysail-500Nm³/h containerized hydrogen generators, with a total production capacity of 1500Nm³/h. Leveraging biomethane-based hydrogen production technology, it creates a model of 'on-site production, immediate refueling, and nearby consumption,' yielding 99.999% high-purity hydrogen compliant with the GB/T37244-2018 national standard for vehicle hydrogen. Once completed, it will become a critical hub for hydrogen energy supply in eastern Beijing. Policy Review 1. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and other departments issued a notice on printing and distributing the "Guidelines for Accounting Non-Fossil Energy Electricity Consumption (Trial)". The content pointed out the need to strengthen alignment with energy statistics and carbon emission accounting systems, holistically consider factors such as physical connections, electricity energy trading, and green electricity certificate trading, and clearly categorize the rules for recognizing non-fossil energy electricity consumption and the accounting methods for users at the province (autonomous region, municipality directly under the central government; the same hereinafter) and city (prefectural) levels. Recognition methods for non-fossil energy electricity consumption: Physical Recognition. Self-generated and self-consumed non-fossil energy electricity and self-consumed electricity from new business models like direct green electricity connections are recognized as the electricity user's non-fossil energy electricity consumption. Electricity consumed for the production of non-fossil energy power generation projects is recognized as the generation enterprise's non-fossil energy electricity consumption. Transaction Recognition, encompassing electricity energy trading (including conventional non-fossil energy electricity trading, green electricity trading, etc.; the same hereinafter) and green certificate trading (including green certificate transfers, etc.; the same hereinafter). 2. The Energy Bureau of Jilin Province and the Development and Reform Commission of Jilin Province jointly issued the notice on the "Implementation Plan for Accelerating the Integrated and Converged Development of New Energy in Jilin Province". Overall goal: By 2030, integrated and converged development shall become a major approach for new energy expansion in the province, with new scenarios featuring integration and convergence emerging continuously. The province's new energy development model will become more flexible, consumption channels more diverse, application scenarios richer, and the electricity market more dynamic, with over 50 new integrated application projects and scenarios being newly established, strongly supporting the comprehensive green transformation of the province's economic and social development. 3. The Administration for Market Regulation of Guangdong Province issued a notice soliciting opinions on the provincial local standard "Operational Specifications for Integrated Hydrogen Production, Storage, and Refueling Equipment (Draft for Review)". The document states that this standard specifies the basic requirements, personnel management, equipment and facility management, hydrogen quality management, refueling operation management, safety management, archive management, and data recording for the operation of integrated hydrogen production, storage, and refueling equipment. Corporate Dynamics Guohong Hydrogen Energy Technology (Jiaxing) Co., Ltd. : Hydrogen heavy-duty trucks from Hongjing Logistics, equipped with Guohong Hydrogen Energy fuel cell systems, officially commenced commercial operation in Xinjiang. The first batch of vehicles departed fully loaded with coke from the Yongxin Coal Chemical Plant in Fukang city, traveling 130 km one way to arrive at the Urumqi Bayi Steel Plant. Beijing Future Hydrogen Energy Technology Co., Ltd. : drafted and released the group standard "Long-term Stability Assessment Method for AEM Water Electrolysis Hydrogen Production Membrane Materials"(T/CIET 2226-2026). Hubei Inteli Electric Co., Ltd. : has seen its cumulative hydrogen project performance in the European export market exceed 1GW. It previously secured contracts to supply 38 units of 4000 Nm³ (alkaline) hydrogen production power supply equipment for a green hydrogen green steel project and 50MW megawatt-class IGBT PWM hydrogen production power supplies for a petrochemical enterprise in Greece. Sungrow Hydrogen Energy Technology Co., Ltd. : won the bid for the green hydrogen coupling coal chemical section of the first-phase project of the 600,000 kW off-grid renewable energy-based hydrogen production project in the Pingshuo coal mining subsidence area of China Coal Group, becoming the primary supplier of alkaline electrolyzer packages for this project with a 48MW scale. The project adopts a pure off-grid hydrogen production technology route, relying on PV and other renewable energy sources to produce green hydrogen, which is directly supplied to coal chemical production lines. It serves as a benchmark project for low-carbon transition using wind and solar hydrogen production in the coal mining industry. According to the supply plan, Sungrow Hydrogen will provide 8 units of 1200Nm³/h electrolyzers, 2 sets of 4800Nm³/h gas-liquid separation and purification systems, along with its self-developed '4-to-1' flexible hydrogen production integrated solution, effectively enhancing the integration level of the equipment package and the long-term operational economy. The company's relevant off-grid hydrogen production package system has undergone long-term verification at a 30MW electrolytic water hydrogen production empirical base, possessing core advantages such as wide load regulation, millisecond-level power response, and long-cycle stable operation, perfectly adapting to fluctuating PV power conditions and addressing pain points in off-grid hydrogen production operations. Anscombe (Beijing) Hydrogen Energy Technology Co., Ltd.: successfully won the bid for the green hydrogen coupling coal chemical section of the first-phase project of the 600,000 kW off-grid renewable energy-based hydrogen production project in the Pingshuo coal mining subsidence area of China Coal Group. The project utilizes an off-grid hydrogen production model, preparing green hydrogen from PV renewable energy, with the hydrogen output supplied directly for coal chemical production use. This project is a core initiative of China Coal Group's 'green hydrogen + coal chemical' coupled low-carbon pathway. Its scale is leading, and the off-grid operation mode imposes extremely high technical requirements on hydrogen equipment enterprises for system integration and adaptability to fluctuating new energy conditions. According to the cooperation plan, Anscombe will supply 4 units of 1200Nm³/h electrolyzers, 1 set of 4800Nm³/h gas-liquid separation and purification system, and provide a '4-to-1' flexible hydrogen production overall solution, comprehensively matching unstable off-grid wind/solar power operating conditions. Transportation Energy Company of Yanchang Petroleum & Gas Group: The hydrogen refueling demonstration station it constructed at the Fuping Service Area (North Zone) on the G5 Beijing-Kunming Expressway has successfully achieved mechanical completion and entered the feed test phase. This station is the first hydrogen refueling demonstration station on an expressway in north-west China, with a total investment exceeding 18.30 million yuan. It is a standardized Level 3 hydrogen refueling station, designed with a daily refueling capacity of 1,000 kg, equipped with an intelligent hydrogen refueling management and control system, capable of serving hydrogen-powered heavy-duty trucks and intercity buses, improving the Shaanxi expressway hydrogen energy supply network. Ai Hydrogen Technology (Group) Co., Ltd. : signed the contract for the western China integrated solid-state hydrogen production, storage, and utilization project with the People's Government of Zhong County, Chongqing. The project will address the shortage of hydrogen sources in Chongqing and guarantee hydrogen demand for transportation and industrial users in eastern Chongqing during the '15th Five-Year Plan' period. Relying on the enterprise's proprietary magnesium-based solid-state hydrogen storage core technology, the project can solve industry challenges such as high hydrogen storage and transportation costs and insufficient safety, enabling large-scale, low-cost, and safe hydrogen storage and transport. China Power Engineering Consulting Group Co., Ltd. : The 10,000 mt-level biomass pressurized gasification pilot plant successfully completed a 72-hour continuous operation test. Industry experts witnessed that the parameters were stable, the equipment operated normally, and multiple core capabilities were verified, marking key progress in the engineering R&D of this technology. The project was led by CPEIC Zhonghe Institute, collaborating with multiple entities to systematically verify biomass pressurized gasification, operating condition optimization, and engineering scale-up aspects. Lanzhou LS Group Co., Ltd.: its self-developed 1000 Nm³ PEM electrolytic water hydrogen production system successfully passed industrial testing. The project's hydrogen production power supply was provided by Hubei Inteli Electric, featured a containerized integrated solution; the equipment completed installation and commissioning ex-factory, offering convenient deployment and strong adaptability, which can effectively shorten construction periods. Patent Applications 1. Shanghai Institute of Ceramics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (China), published patent CN2025110028, developing a ceramic-based anion exchange membrane with a laboratory-tested lifespan of 80,000 hours. 2. Johnson Matthey (UK), submitted patent WO2025109876, disclosing an Fe-Ni-Mo ternary non-precious metal catalyst formulation, with activity approaching that of platinum-based materials. Technical Footprints / Technical Specifications 1. Lei Tong, Haiwei Liang from USTC, and Liang Zhang's team from Tsinghua University proposed the Carbon Mesoporous Depth Engineering (CMDE) strategy. By utilizing hollow mesoporous carbon spheres to regulate ionomer penetration depth, it resolves the inherent contradiction between kinetic activity and oxygen mass transport in low-platinum fuel cells, developing a PtCo low-platinum catalyst that balances poisoning resistance, high mass transport, and excellent durability, achieving power, activity, and durability targets set by the US DOE at an ultra-low platinum loading of 0.1mgPt cm⁻². 2. Professor Zhizhang Li's team at Northwestern Polytechnical University innovatively constructed a three-dimensional multi-physics field coupled model for tubular solid oxide fuel cells, systematically revealing the quantitative influence rules of temperature, electrode thickness, porosity, and oxygen domain geometric parameters on battery output performance. 3. China Automotive Engineering Research Institute's National Hydrogen Energy Power Quality Inspection and Testing Center completed a 0-400 kW hydrogen-involved load-bearing three-comprehensive vibration testing platform and opened it for commercial use, addressing the gap in domestic testing for high-power, hydrogen-involved multi-physics coupling. 4. The high specific power cathode closed-cathode air-cooled stack technology developed by the team of Academician Zhongwei Chen and Associate Researcher Meng Zhang at the Dalian Institute of Chemical Physics' State Key Laboratory of Energy Catalysis and Conversion passed the scientific and technological achievement appraisal by the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation. This technology effectively overcomes the industry contradiction between water retention and oxygen mass transport in air-cooled fuel cells, solving technical challenges such as low-humidity performance degradation, carbon corrosion, dry membrane water flooding, and high-power thermal management. 5. Two group standards related to water electrolysis-based hydrogen production were officially released and implemented, namely "Safety Technical Specifications for Water Electrolysis Hydrogen Production" and "Economic Performance Indicator Calculation Methods for Water Electrolysis Hydrogen Production." 6. Petronor and H2SITE collaborate to advance membrane technology for hydrogen production, enhancing high-purity hydrogen in refining and low-carbon efficiency.

[Tungsten Express] SMM, June 11: The tungsten raw material prices remained sideways today, with divergence appearing across various segments of the industry chain. Spot supply of upstream tungsten concentrates was tight, as suppliers held firm on quotations with strong reluctance to sell, while downstream procurement pace slowed, leading to a significant contraction in mainstream transactions at the mine end and for APT. Tungsten powder enterprises had limited support from orders on hand and were extremely cautious in restocking, mostly producing based on sales. Amid the tug-of-war between longs and shorts across the entire industry chain, the market stagnated. Yesterday, a leading tungsten enterprise in Guangdong locked in the long-term contract price for APT at 780,000 yuan/mt, effectively stabilizing industry expectations. Currently, the trading center of the APT spot market is fluctuating around 800,000 yuan/mt, with some inventory still needing to be cleared. Short-term prices are expected to move sideways.

In May, key materials for sodium-ion batteries sustained their strong momentum, with both cathode and hard carbon anode recording sharp YoY and MoM growth. Top-tier players’ order books were full and capacity utilization rates approached their limits. On the supply side, the pattern of rising volumes and stable prices was pronounced, yet pressure to pass on rising raw material costs was also building.

SHFE issued an announcement that, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Shanghai Futures Exchange Delivery Warehouse Management Measures and other related regulations, it decided upon deliberation to approve the expansion of the approved alumina futures warehouse capacity at the storage facility of Gansu Guotong Bulk Commodity Supply Chain Management Co., Ltd., located at No. 968, Shandanhe Street, Lanzhou New Area, Lanzhou City, Gansu Province, increasing it from the original 50,000 mt to 100,000 mt.

I. Background of China's Demand Decline ◼ In 2026, the global iron ore market is facing a critical turning point. As the Chinese government continues to strengthen steel capacity regulation and accelerate the industry's green and low-carbon transition, compounded by global trade barriers constraining export opportunities, China's steel production is expected to continue its YoY decline. As the world's largest iron ore consumer (absorbing approximately 75% of seaborne iron ore volume), China's weakening demand coincides with the supply side being about to see massive volume releases—represented by the phased commissioning of the Simandou project with a designed annual capacity of 120 million mt. With supply and demand moving in opposite directions, global iron ore prices will face significant downward pressure. Data source: SMM ◼ Against this backdrop, market attention naturally turns to the world's second-largest crude steel producer— India . As an emerging market in steel consumption, India is driven by infrastructure and real estate as its core growth engines, with downstream steel consumption growing rapidly, strongly propelling the robust development of crude steel production, with an average annual growth rate of 10.5% . Although countries such as Vietnam, Indonesia, Turkey, Mexico, and the US also maintain relatively fast development in their steel industries, over the next five years, the highest compound annual growth rate among these countries is only 5%, forming a notable gap with India. Data source: SMM II. Analysis of India's Iron Ore Supply-Demand Structure 2.1 India's Iron Ore Production Continues to Grow, but Structural Differentiation Is Evident ◼ 2.1.1 India Is Rich in Iron Ore Resources, Ranking Third Globally ◼ From a resource perspective, India is relatively rich in iron ore resources. According to the latest 2024 Iron Ore Resource Annual Report released by India's Ministry of Mines, India's iron ore resource reserves total 35.29 billion mt. Magnetite accounts for 33%, and hematite accounts for 67%. The predominant hematite resources are mainly distributed across Odisha, Goa, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Karnataka — these five states. Among them, Odisha in the east (production accounting for over half of the national total, grade 62%-65%) and Chhattisgarh (home to the large Bailadila mining area, with estimated total reserves of 3 billion mt and grade as high as 65%), as well as Karnataka in the south (primarily magnetite). Data source: SMM 2.1.2 India's Iron Ore Production Is Largely Concentrated in State-Owned Mines ◼ India's iron ore mining market combines state-owned and private enterprises. By company ownership, 36% of mines are controlled by state-owned enterprises, with the remaining 64% controlled by private enterprises. Representative state-owned mine enterprises include National Mineral Development Corporation (NMDC) , Steel Authority of India Limited (SAIL) , and Kudremukh Iron Ore Company (Kudremukh); representative private mine enterprises include Tata Steel Company, etc. ◼ In FY2025/26 (April 2025–March 2026), India's iron ore production is expected to reach 305–310 million mt, up approximately 7% YoY. Specifically: NMDC (state-owned producer) production reached 53.15 million mt, up 20.6% YoY; OMC production reached 40 million mt, up 11% YoY. Commercial mine production grew 15% to 190 million mt, while captive mine production declined 3% to 120 million mt. Production growth was primarily driven by commercial producers, and the supply structure is shifting, but growth is concentrated among a few large producers, meaning supply conditions are not balanced. Data source: WSA, SMM 2.1.3 India's New Iron Ore Project Capacity to Increase by 60 Million mt by 2030 ◼ Facing tight balance pressure from downstream steelmaking capacity expansion on supply and demand, industry leader NMDC is actively implementing a capacity expansion strategy. By accelerating mine development and technological upgrades, it is committed to enhancing supply-side flexibility and resilience to ensure continuous fulfillment of the widening rigid demand in the Chinese market. ◼ In addition to NMDC planning to increase capacity from 45 million mt to 67 million mt in FY2025/26, Tata Steel plans to invest 100 billion rupees (approximately $1.18 billion) over the next five years to expand mining capacity from 40 million mt to 55 million mt, and some private enterprises are also increasing iron ore capacity. Based on existing new iron ore capacity estimates, India's iron ore capacity is expected to increase by 60 million mt by 2030. Data source: SMM 2.1.4 Imbalanced Iron Ore Grade Structure — Both an Exporter and Importer ◼ According to the latest India resource report, although India has abundant iron ore reserves, the raw ore grade varies significantly. Currently, total explored reserves across India stand at 6.21 billion mt, of which high-grade iron ore accounts for 23%, medium-grade ore approximately 42%, and low-grade ore approximately 25%. Based on product classification of India's industry leaders, iron ore with grade above 60% accounts for 43% of production, while that below 60% accounts for approximately 57%, indicating that India's iron ore products are predominantly low-grade. However, India's major steel producers have high raw material requirements and prefer iron ore with grade above 60%. Therefore, iron ore below 60% grade is mainly exported to China, Japan, and other countries. The high-grade shortfall is mainly met through imports from Brazil, Oman, Australia, and other countries. Data sources: India Resources Report, WSA, SMM III. Key Constraints on India's Ability to Absorb China's Declining Iron Ore Demand 3.1 Vast Volume Gap Hard to Bridge, but Incremental Offset Can Provide a Floor ◼ In recent years, China's annual iron ore imports were approximately 1.2 billion mt, while India remains primarily an exporter, with annual exports of 23.56 million mt and imports of 12.31 million mt—its import scale being only 1% of China's. Even if India redirected all its export resources to meet its own demand, the absolute scale would still be two orders of magnitude smaller than China's demand decline. ◼ However, as China's iron ore demand declines and India's demand rises in the future, India's share in the global iron ore market will grow significantly. According to World Steel Association data, China accounted for 59% of global iron ore demand in 2025, while India accounted for only 10%; by 2030, China's share is expected to decline to 52%, while India's will rise to 15%, with particularly impressive growth momentum. The incremental demand from India will offset part of China's decline, providing a floor for iron ore prices. Data sources: WSA, SMM 3.2 Government Policies & Import Grade Restrictions Limiting Imports ◼ Based on India's iron ore import and export data, India's exports in 2025 declined 34% compared to 2024, while imports surged 129%. Despite the massive increase in imports and significant room for further growth driven by rising domestic demand, the Indian government has already introduced measures requiring priority fulfillment of domestic demand and reducing exports, which will to some extent suppress the growth potential of its iron ore imports. Meanwhile, the continued degradation of resource endowments at major global mines has intensified the structural shortage of high-grade ore, making the high-grade resources available for India's future imports relatively limited. Furthermore, as requirements for green steel production increase in and outside China, China's future demand for high-grade iron ore will also rise correspondingly, a trend that will further constrain India's iron ore import capacity. ◼ In the long run, if demand for high-grade ore continues to trigger structural tightness, the price spread between high-, medium-, and low-grade iron ore will continue to widen. Against this backdrop, India's own ore product mix may undergo significant adjustments, and its exports may continue to decline. Data sources: WSA, SMM 3.3 Green Steel Policies Driving Higher Electric Furnace Share, Iron Ore Demand Growth Under Pressure to Slow Down ◼ From a production process perspective, India's share of electric furnace steelmaking far exceeds China's, at approximately 30% in 2024. According to India's *National Steel Policy (2017)*, the country plans to raise its annual crude steel capacity to 300 million mt by FY2030 (ending March 31, 2031), with blast furnace-converter process capacity accounting for 60%-65% and electric furnace process capacity accounting for 35%-40%. As global carbon emission policies advance further, the share of green steel will increase significantly in the future, which aligns with the electric furnace capacity share target in India's National Steel Policy. Under this trend, the rising share of electric furnace steelmaking will, to some extent, curb the incremental demand for iron ore in India. Data sources: WSA, SMM IV. India's Iron Ore Demand Growth: Sufficient to Offset, Insufficient to Reverse ◼ According to the World Steel Association's forecast, global total iron ore demand is expected to maintain a modest growth trend from 2026 to 2030. China's iron ore demand is expected to decline by 8%, a reduction of approximately 113 million mt, while benefiting from continued expansion in steel production, India's total iron ore demand over the same period will grow by 55%, an increase of approximately 128 million mt. Meanwhile, based on estimates of global iron ore project capacity and commissioning pace, by 2030, approximately 300 million mt of new iron ore capacity is expected to be added globally on a cumulative basis. Overall, although India's demand growth is robust, it remains difficult to offset the large-scale supply increase on a global scale. However, the rise in India's demand can, to some extent, counteract the negative impact of declining demand from China, providing floor support for iron ore prices. ◼ In addition, as global carbon emission policies advance further, blast furnace capacity will gradually contract and crude steel production will trend downward, while the share of direct reduced iron (DRI) and electric furnace steelmaking is expected to continue rising. Against this backdrop, demand for high-grade iron ore will grow significantly in both China and India, which will further intensify the structural tightness in the high-grade ore market, thereby pushing up high-grade premiums. The price spread between high- and medium-grade iron ore is expected to widen notably in the future. Data source: SMM Data source disclaimer: Data other than publicly available information is derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice. Note: This article is an original article of this official account. For reprinting, whitelisting, cooperation, or other needs, please contact us. Without permission, it is prohibited to reprint, modify, use, sell, transfer, display, translate, compile, disseminate, or disclose the above content to third parties in any other form, or license third parties to use it. Otherwise, once discovered, SMM will pursue legal liability for infringement through legal means, including but not limited to demanding liability for breach of contract, return of unjust enrichment, and compensation for direct and indirect economic losses. Scan the QR code to get information for free

On May 25, luxury sports car manufacturer Ferrari officially unveiled its first all-electric vehicle, with a starting price of 550,000 euros. This electric vehicle is named "Luce." It boasts 1,035 horsepower, accelerating from 0 to 100 km/h in just 2.5 seconds, from 0 to 200 km/h in 6.8 seconds, with a top speed of 310 km/h, and a driving range exceeding 530 kilometers. The power battery system was fully self-developed by Ferrari, with a total battery pack capacity of 122 kWh and an energy density exceeding 740 Wh/L. Internally, it is equipped with NMC ternary lithium pouch cells jointly developed by Ferrari and South Korean battery company SK On, with a single cell capacity of 159 Ah.