[Brazil] Higher freight offsets falling export offers as Brazil's flat-product import prices steady Brazil's flat-product import prices were broadly steady this week, as elevated ocean freight effectively offset the decline in export offers from major shipping origins. HRC and CRC import prices steadied at 590 and 700 USD/tonne CFR respectively. Recent geopolitical turbulence in the Middle East has pushed up marine fuel costs, while weak Asian demand and softer raw materials prompted Vietnamese mills to cut export offers. On the domestic front, dragged by weak downstream demand, tight credit and rising inventories, Brazil's domestic HRC ex-works prices were flat this week, with no price increase planned for August. In addition, Brazilian slab export trading also slowed this week as major exporters made internal transfers to their own plants in Europe and the United States at offers of 575-585 USD/tonne FOB.

This week, ferrous metals drifted lower overall, with iron ore and rebar leading the decline and hitting new stage lows. The core driver of the downturn was a confluence of multiple bearish factors: First, the Politburo meeting ended, and the outcome fell short of market expectations, causing sentiment support to collapse. Second, cost support collapsed in a stepwise manner. The second round of coke price cuts was quickly implemented, and the market widely expects a third round to come. Combined with hot metal output falling to a trough, global iron ore shipments staying high, and port inventories being ample, the decline in raw material prices allowed the negative feedback loop to transmit smoothly. Finally, end-use demand was seasonally sluggish, with high temperatures and rainfall dampening construction. Total inventories of ferrous metals continued to accumulate, spot transactions were sluggish, and the supply-demand imbalance persisted......

[SMM HRC Daily Trading Volume] On July 31, the combined daily HRC trading volume of sample enterprises in SMM’s four cities (Shanghai, Lecong, Tianjin, Ningbo) totaled 10,630 mt, down 50 mt, or 0.4% DoD, 11.34% YoY, and 32.72% Lunar YoY.

HRC prices weakened from the previous week, and overall transactions declined WoW. Supply side, the impact from rolling line maintenance decreased WoW, lifting overall HRC production. Demand side, apparent demand dropped WoW. Inventory side, total HRC inventory rose by 77,500 mt WoW, while mill inventory fell by 6,200 mt WoW. Social inventory, SMM statistics of 86 warehouses nationwide (large sample) showed HRC social inventory at 4.4773 million mt, up 83,700 mt WoW (+1.90% WoW) and up 40.27 mt YoY on a calendar basis. By region, except the northeast that saw slight destocking, all other markets experienced inventory buildup, with east China showing relatively large fluctuations. Cost side, the second round of coke price cuts was implemented, weakening cost support. Looking ahead, SMM expects hot metal production to bottom out and rebound, and with the US-Iran conflict pushing up ocean freight rates, iron ore prices may see a slight rebound. Meanwhile, a third round of coke price cuts still lingers, leaving overall cost support moderate. From a fundamental perspective, the HRC supply-demand imbalance continues to build, and combined with the PBoC Politburo meeting expectations falling short, there is no clear upward price catalyst. However, given that prices are already at relatively low levels, downside room is limited. HRC prices are expected to move sideways at the bottom next week, with the most-traded HRC contract trading in the 3,200-3,390 range.

Tata Steel's June-quarter results showed stronger realised prices and a richer product mix helped offset lower steel volumes, highlighting the growing role of value-added products and downstream integration in supporting margins beyond benchmark HRC prices.

[Brazil] Brazilian imported flat steel prices remained largely stable this week, as surging freight rates effectively offset falling FOB offers from major origins. Hot-rolled coil (HRC) and cold-rolled coil (CRC) import prices held steady at 590 USD/tonne CFR and 700 USD/tonne CFR, respectively. Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven up shipping fuel costs, counteracting the FOB price cuts made by Vietnamese mills amid sluggish Asian demand and falling raw material costs. In the domestic market, pressured by weak downstream demand, tight credit, and accumulating inventories, Brazilian ex-works HRC prices held flat this week, with no price hikes planned for August. Additionally, Brazilian slab export sales slowed this week, as major exporters finalized internal transfers to their own mills in Europe and the Americas at 575–585 USD/tonne FOB.