Cost Support & Fundamental Improvement: Hot-Rolled Coil Prices Continued to Strengthen in April As of April 30, the most-traded hot-rolled coil futures contract closed at 3,425 points, up 131 points MoM from March 31. In April, SMM's national average spot price for hot-rolled coil was 3,321.78 yuan/mt, up 54.91 yuan/mt MoM (1.68%). HRC prices continued to rise in April, mainly due to relatively stable cost support. Additionally, since the start of April, on one hand, semi-finished products export orders were robust, with some steel mills prioritizing delivery of semi-finished product orders, thereby easing supply pressure in the HRC market; on the other hand, amid the peak season, HRC demand release was strong, driving rapid HRC inventory drawdown and significantly easing supply-demand imbalances. Before mid-May, HRC prices are expected to continue fluctuating at highs; in late May, attention turns to export support and the extent of demand pullback Fundamentals, few new maintenance shutdowns have been announced so far, and May HRC production is expected to rebound MoM. However, considering that some steel mills are still actively delivering earlier semi-finished product and HRC export orders, the supply rebound pressure is expected to be manageable. Demand side, the average apparent demand for HRC tracked by SMM in April was 3.3961 million mt, up 7.52% MoM and down 2.19% YoY. Since the start of April, HRC demand climbed rapidly, mainly driven by a simultaneous rebound in export orders and domestic downstream demand in China. For May, historically apparent demand for the five major steel products tends to peak and pull back around Labour Day holiday. Combined with weakening domestic trade demand in some downstream industries, further upside room for May HRC demand is expected to be limited, with overall demand likely edging down slightly MoM from April, and apparent demand levels falling below the same period last year. In the short term, downstream restocking demand expectations remain after the Labour Day holiday, coupled with expectations of a third round of coke price increases, and HRC prices are expected to fluctuate at highs for 1–2 weeks after the holiday. From mid-to-late May, steel demand faces challenges as the traditional peak season winds down, and the steel supply-demand imbalance may widen MoM, limiting further upside room for steel prices. Other aspects, attention should be paid to export order support and the extent of domestic demand pullback.

This week, ferrous metals moved sideways and upward. During the week, as US-Iran negotiations made no progress and the Strait of Hormuz remained closed, combined with declining US crude oil inventories, Brent crude oil surged sharply, driving coking coal higher. Although BHP port spot cargoes were available for purchase, which was bearish for market sentiment, futures had already priced in related expectations earlier, so iron ore pullback was limited and cost support was relatively neutral. The Politburo meeting held mid-week had low direct correlation with ferrous metals, and ferrous metals fluctuated at highs during the week. Spot market side, end-users restocked at low prices before the holiday, and as futures rose in the latter half of the week, speculative demand was also released...

SMM News Flash: [HRC] Today's HRC export prices rose $1/mt MoM, with most market quotes above $500/mt. However, according to market feedback, a quote of $480/mt was seen today, likely an MD price. [India] Domestic steel mill prices in India remained stable, with ex-factory prices at 625-630 USD/tonne. Mills held prices firm due to good order-taking and upward cost pressure. However, spot trading market sentiment was weak, and coupled with energy supply issues at downstream processing enterprises, procurement was mainly driven by steel demand.

The core logic of the South American steel market is that end-user demand drives everything. Consumption demand is the starting point, filled jointly by local production and imports; imports act as a regulating valve rather than a driving force.

Social inventory of HRC was 3.0182 million mt this week, down 151,200 mt from the previous week (-4.77% WoW, +41.59% YoY, +17.81% YoY on a lunar calendar basis). Mill inventory of HRC was 1.0153 million mt this week, down 1,500 mt from the previous week (-0.15% WoW, -7.28% YoY, -8.64% YoY on a lunar calendar basis). Total HRC inventory was 4.0335 million mt this week, down 152,700 mt from the previous week (-3.65% WoW, +25.00% YoY, +9.81% YoY on a lunar calendar basis).

SMM News Flash: [India] Indian HRC export offers to the EU were stable at about 705 USD/tonne CFR, but trading activity was muted due to weak demand and cautious buyer sentiment. No new deals were concluded as buyers remained concerned over upcoming EU safeguard adjustments from July 2026, including tighter quotas and potential 50% out-of-quota tariffs, along with additional CBAM-related costs.