SMM News, April 27: On April 24, 2026, market rumors emerged that Guinea would cap its bauxite export volume at 150 million tons, with the relevant policy to be officially released on April 25. The news drove a sharp rise in alumina during the overnight session that day. The main alumina contract 2609 hit a high of 2,899 yuan per ton and closed at 2,894 yuan per ton, up 2.76% from the previous settlement price. As of April 25, 2026, no updated official policy documents had been released on relevant government websites in Guinea. Per market rumors, Guinea’s bauxite exports will be restricted to 150 million tons. Should the final policy be implemented as rumored, based on Guinea’s general bauxite trade flow ratios and historical shipment volumes, SMM estimates that domestic bauxite imports from Guinea will drop to approximately 132 million tons in 2026. Customs data for 2025 showed domestic imports of Guinea bauxite stood at around 149 million tons, Australian bauxite imports at roughly 37.42 million tons, and non-mainstream source bauxite imports at about 14.26 million tons. If Guinea bauxite imports fall to 132 million tons in 2026, Australian bauxite imports remain largely stable, and non-mainstream bauxite imports edge down to around 12.5 million tons, the total domestic bauxite import volume is projected to decline to roughly 182 million tons. SMM forecasts domestic bauxite output to reach 79 million tons in 2026 (including volumes supplied for non-metallurgical alumina production), putting the total domestic bauxite supply at approximately 261 million tons for the year. SMM estimates domestic metallurgical alumina output at 87.22 million tons in 2026, sufficient to support a annually aluminum production capacity of 45.3 million tons. The alumina market will shift to a net import status. Factoring in bauxite demand for non-metallurgical alumina segments, overall bauxite total demand is expected to hit around 262 million tons. On the whole, the bauxite market fundamentals are set to shift into a tight balance in 2026. Amid raw material inventory buildup demand from newly commissioned alumina capacity, the bauxite market is theoretically poised to face mild tight supply conditions. However, actual market performance is expected to be looser than modelled calculations, for the following key reasons: Electrolytic aluminum production cuts in the Middle East have exacerbated overseas alumina surplus, while global bauxite supply contraction has lifted price expectations. Rising domestic bauxite prices will push up local alumina production costs, further enhancing the cost competitiveness of overseas alumina. Higher alumina imports will replace part of bauxite imports, easing domestic bauxite supply tightness. Elevated inventory levels will ease market tightness. In 2025, high price incentives drove a substantial increase in bauxite supply, resulting in a notable supply surplus and sharp inventory accumulation.Data from SMM showed domestic port bauxite inventories stood at 21.32 million tons and bonded ore inventories at alumina refineries at about 57.06 million tons by early 2026, with combined inventories reaching 78.38 million tons. Ample inventory buffers will keep actual market conditions looser than theoretical projections. In summary, if Guinea finalizes its policy to cap total bauxite exports at 150 million tons with no major fluctuations in ocean freight rates, bauxite prices are expected to trend a little bit higher. Nevertheless, substantial overseas alumina surplus and increased substitutable alumina imports will cap upside potential for bauxite prices. Barring unforeseen black swan events, neither bauxite nor alumina prices are likely to replicate the strong rally seen from late 2024 to early 2025. In the short term, both buyers and sellers in the bauxite market are adopting a wait-and-see stance, pending official updates on Guinea’s new policy. Market sentiment remains cautious, and prices are projected to move in a volatile range ahead of clear policy guidance.

SMM Alumina Morning Comment 2.5 Futures: During the night session, the most-traded alumina futures contract AO2605 opened at 2,824 yuan/mt, reached a high of 2,824 yuan/mt, hit a low of 2,781 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,788 yuan/mt, down 36 yuan/mt from the previous day. Open interest increased by 7,776 lots to 383,000 lots, indicating an overall cautious market sentiment. From a technical perspective, the closing price was above MA10 (2,777.80) and MA30 (2,772.63), providing some upward momentum, but below MA5 (2,792.20), limiting gains with overhead pressure still present. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator DIF (7.18) crossed above DEA (0.19), with the bullish crossover at low levels weakening and the histogram narrowing to 13.96, suggesting alumina futures are expected to continue weakening in the near term. Industry Updates: 1) Overseas alumina transactions: On February 3, 2026, 30,000 mt of alumina was traded overseas at a transaction price of $310/mt FOB Western Australia for March shipment. The previous transaction was on January 20 at $304/mt FOB Western Australia for February shipment. Ore: As of February 4, 2026, the SMM imported bauxite index stood at $62.42/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea FOB average price was $39/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average price was $61/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Australian low-temperature bauxite CIF average price was $60/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Australian high-temperature bauxite CIF average price was $56/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The Malaysian bauxite CIF average price was $47/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The Malaysian bauxite CIF (washed) average price was $60/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The Ghanaian bauxite CIF price was $73/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The bauxite CFR (Turkey) price was $71.5/mt, down $2/mt from last Friday. Domestic ore side, bauxite production resumptions in Shanxi were active, with currently ample supply. Combined with some domestic ore production lines planning to upgrade to imported ore lines recently, domestic ore demand weakened again, and prices were under pressure. Imported ore side, market transactions were sluggish, with offer prices continuing to decline. Some alumina refineries reported that amid falling ore prices, procurement plans remained cautious. SMM will continue to monitor domestic and overseas mines' production, port shipments, and price trends. Spot Prices: As of February 4, 2025, the SMM alumina index was at 2,619.87 yuan/mt, down 0.27 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Shandong alumina index was at 2,549.77 yuan/mt, down 0.19 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Henan alumina index was at 2,617.91 yuan/mt, down 0.92 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Shanxi alumina index was at 2,604.23 yuan/mt, down 0.26 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Guizhou alumina index was at 2,693.56 yuan/mt, down 0.23 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Guangxi alumina index was at 2,674 yuan/mt, down 0.33 yuan/mt MoM. Spot-Futures Price Spread Daily Report: According to SMM data, on February 4, the SMM alumina index was at a discount of 208.13 yuan/mt against the most-traded contract's latest transaction price at 11:30 AM. Warrant Daily Report: On February 4, total registered alumina warrants increased by 6,944 mt from the previous trading day to 196,300 mt. Shandong region alumina warrants remained unchanged at 7,796 mt. Henan region alumina warrants remained unchanged at 1,203 mt. Guangxi region alumina warrants remained unchanged at 7,505 mt. Gansu region alumina warrants remained unchanged at 17,400 mt. Xinjiang region alumina warrants increased by 6,944 mt from the previous trading day to 162,400 mt. Markets Outside China: As of February 4, 2026, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $310/mt, the ocean freight rate was $20.2/mt, and the USD/CNY selling rate was around 6.95. This translated to a selling price at China's major ports of approximately 2,674.83 yuan/mt, which was 54.96 yuan/mt above the SMM alumina index price. According to SMM model calculations, the import window was closed. Summary: Overall, as of last Thursday, China's alumina market inventory edged up slightly, with the overall oversupply pattern continuing. Currently, some alumina refineries have started maintenance, with enterprises across various regions arranging production shutdowns of different scales, leading to a decline in the industry operating rate and a weekly production decrease of 35,000 mt to 1.636 million mt. Inventory side, as more enterprises underwent maintenance, alumina in-factory inventory decreased by 3,000 mt to 1.2408 million mt. Aluminum enterprises' raw material inventory edged up slightly to 3.603 million mt, mainly due to continued shipments under long-term contract orders. Warrants, attracted by previously strong futures prices, saw increased delivery willingness, rising by 40,000 mt to 159,100 mt, while in-transit and platform inventory decreased by 30,000 mt as cargoes gradually arrived at end-users. Overall, although the pace of inventory buildup has slowed down compared to the earlier period, overall industry inventory pressure persists, and the destocking progress has fallen short of expectations. Going forward, attention should be paid to the execution of enterprise maintenance plans. If the supply side fails to sustain contraction, inventory is expected to maintain a slight buildup trend next week, and spot alumina prices are expected to be in the doldrums. [Data other than publicly available information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.]

SMM Alumina Morning Comment 4.20 Futures: Last Friday during the night session, the most-traded alumina futures contract 2609 opened at 2,762 yuan/mt, reaching a high of 2,777 yuan/mt and a low of 2,748 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,750 yuan/mt, up 84 yuan/mt from the previous day. Open interest increased by 134,000 lots to 274,000 lots, with continued tug-of-war between bulls and bears. From a technical perspective, the closing price was below MA5 (2,780.4), MA10 (2,790.50), and MA30 (2,938.23), indicating certain overhead resistance for upward moves. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator DEA (-28.37) crossed above DIF (-54.32), with the "death cross continuing" and the histogram at -31.91. Alumina futures are expected to be in the doldrums in the short term, and attention should be paid to geopolitical impacts, commissioning plans for new capacity, and inventory changes. Ore: As of April 15, 2026, the SMM imported bauxite index was at $68.99/mt, up $0.04/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea FOB average price was at $38.5/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average price was at $69/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The SMM Australian low-temperature bauxite CIF average price was at $61.5/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The SMM Australian high-temperature bauxite CIF average price was at $56.5/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The Malaysia bauxite CIF average price was at $52/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The Malaysia bauxite CIF (washed) average price was at $63/mt, up $0.5/mt from the previous trading day. The Ghana bauxite CIF price was at $78/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The bauxite CFR (Turkey) price was at $81.5/mt, up $3/mt from last Friday. Overall, domestic ore supply remained relatively sufficient, and ore prices were basically stable. For imported ore, amid ocean freight rate fluctuations, some mines controlled shipments, providing certain support for ore prices. However, alumina refinery inventory in China remained at high levels (approximately 92 days), and alumina refineries showed weak purchase willingness, with continued price negotiations between buyers and sellers. Ore prices are expected to fluctuate at highs in the short term, and the market should focus on the implementation of Guinea's "quota system" policy and ocean freight rate trends. Spot Price: As of April 16, 2025, the SMM alumina index was at 2,680.25 yuan/mt, down 13.32 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Shandong alumina index was at 2,650.82 yuan/mt, down 14.71 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Henan alumina index was at 2,691.88 yuan/mt, down 16.96 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Shanxi alumina index was at 2,685.65 yuan/mt, down 26.21 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Guizhou alumina index was at 2,726.82 yuan/mt, down 13.4 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Guangxi alumina index was at 2,665.39 yuan/mt, down 13.88 yuan/mt MoM. Spot-Futures Price Spread Daily Report: According to SMM data, on April 16, the SMM alumina index was at a premium of 13.25 yuan/mt against the most-traded contract based on the latest transaction price at 11:30 AM. Warrant Daily Report: On April 16, total registered alumina warrants increased by 4,799 mt from the previous trading day to 478,900 mt. Registered alumina warrants in Shandong remained flat from the previous trading day at 58,375 mt. Registered alumina warrants in Henan increased by 4,795 mt from the previous trading day to 36,322 mt. Registered alumina warrants in Guangxi increased by 4 mt from the previous trading day to 17,434 mt. Registered alumina warrants in Gansu remained flat from the previous trading day at 49,847 mt. Registered alumina warrants in Xinjiang remained flat from the previous trading day at 310,900 mt. Markets Outside China: As of April 16, 2026, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was at $306/mt, the ocean freight rate was at $30.05/mt, and the USD/CNY selling rate was around 6.84. This translated to a selling price at major domestic ports of approximately 2,678.42 yuan/mt, which was 1.83 yuan/mt below the alumina index price. According to the SMM model, the import window remained open. Summary: Supply side, the industry operating rate edged up this week, mainly driven by production resumptions after production line upgrades in Shanxi and continued ramp-up of new capacity in Guangxi. Demand side, aluminum operations remained stable overall, with demand holding steady. Domestic inventory continued the inventory buildup trend this week, with total inventory up 48,000 mt WoW. Overall, the alumina market is still in an inventory buildup cycle, primarily driven by continued supply release coupled with increasing port arrivals and warrant registrations. Looking ahead to next week, as new capacity in Guangxi is further released, supply is expected to maintain growth, inventory is likely to continue accumulating, and prices are expected to remain under pressure. [Data other than publicly available information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.]

SMM Alumina Morning Comment 4.10 Futures: During the night session, the most-traded alumina futures contract AO2605 opened at 2,643 yuan/mt, reaching a high of 2,665 yuan/mt and a low of 2,622 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,641 yuan/mt, down 31 yuan/mt from the previous day. Open interest increased by 2,876 lots to 181,200 lots, as bulls and bears continued to wrestle in the market. From a technical perspective, the closing price was below MA5 (2,679.40), MA10 (2,762.00), and MA30 (2,684.90), indicating certain overhead resistance for upward movement. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator DEA (-19.09) crossed above DIF (-57.41), with the "death cross continuing" and the histogram at -76.03. Alumina futures are expected to be in the doldrums in the short term, and continued attention should be paid to geopolitical impacts, commissioning plans for new capacity, and inventory changes. Industry Updates: 1) Ex-China alumina transactions: On April 9, 2026, 30,000 mt of alumina was traded outside China at a transaction price of $306/mt FOB Western Australia, for May shipment. Ore: As of April 9, 2026, the SMM imported bauxite index was at $68.41/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the SMM Guinea FOB average price was at $38.5/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average price was at $68.5/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the SMM Australian low-temperature bauxite CIF average price was at $61.5/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the SMM Australian high-temperature bauxite CIF average price was at $56.5/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the Malaysian bauxite CIF average price was at $52/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the Malaysian bauxite CIF (washed) average price was at $62.5/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the Ghanaian bauxite CIF price was at $76.5/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the bauxite CFR (Turkey) price was at $78/mt, flat from last Friday. Overall, domestic ore supply was relatively sufficient, and ore prices were basically stable. For imported ore, against the backdrop of ocean freight rate fluctuations, some mines controlled shipments, providing certain support for ore prices. However, alumina refinery inventories remained at high levels (approximately 92 days), and alumina refineries showed weak purchase willingness, with buyers and sellers continuing to negotiate on pricing. Ore prices are expected to fluctuate at highs in the short term, and the market should focus on the implementation of Guinea's "quota system" policy and ocean freight rate trends going forward. Spot Prices: As of April 9, 2025, the SMM alumina index was at 2,771.37 yuan/mt, down 9.86 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Shandong alumina index was at 2,752.63 yuan/mt, down 13.9 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Henan alumina index was at 2,802.74 yuan/mt, down 15.3 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Shanxi alumina index was at 2,791.73 yuan/mt, down 11.89 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Guizhou alumina index was at 2,809.29 yuan/mt, down 4.96 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Guangxi alumina index was at 2,762.94 yuan/mt, down 5.17 yuan/mt MoM. Spot-Futures Price Spread Daily Report: According to SMM data, on April 9, the SMM alumina index was at a premium of 95.37 yuan/mt against the most-traded contract's latest transaction price at 11:30 AM. Warrant Daily Report: On April 9, total registered alumina warrants increased by 12,355 mt from the previous trading day to 464,500 mt. By region: Shandong increased by 6,035 mt to 58,035 mt; Henan remained flat at 17,710 mt; Guangxi increased by 301 mt to 29,753 mt; Gansu remained flat at 49,847 mt; Xinjiang increased by 6,019 mt to 309,200 mt. Markets Outside China: As of April 9, 2026, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $320/mt, the ocean freight rate was $31.35/mt, and the USD/CNY selling rate was around 6.85. This translated to a selling price at major domestic ports of approximately 2,800.97 yuan/mt, which was 29.6 yuan/mt higher than the alumina index price. According to the SMM model, the import window was closed. Summary: Supply side, as of Thursday this week, the weekly industry operating rate edged up by 0.26 percentage points, mainly because newly commissioned projects in Guangxi were in a slow production ramp-up phase, driving a marginal weekly production increase of 6,000 mt, with overall industry supply continuing to increase. Inventory side, the spot market remained generally tight, with some enterprises still drawing down their own inventories, resulting in destocking of 9,000 mt at plants. Meanwhile, alumina refinery inventories edged up by 6,000 mt, mainly due to inventory buildup from new products as Guangxi ramped up production. Warrant side, the price spread between futures and spot cargo previously offered profit margins, prompting previously registered warrants to be shipped to delivery warehouses, which in turn pushed up alumina futures inventory. Port inventory saw destocking of 32,000 mt this week, mainly because alumina that had previously arrived at ports was transshipped to the Middle East, leading to a decline in port inventory. Overall, the national alumina market saw a slight inventory buildup, mainly driven by increased warrant registrations, which pushed overall inventory levels slightly higher. Looking ahead to next week, current warrant inventory is gradually approaching full capacity, and the inventory buildup trend is expected to continue to be driven by the sustained release of newly commissioned alumina refinery capacity. Alumina inventory is expected to continue showing a slight inventory buildup trend next week. [Data other than publicly available information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.]

SMM Alumina Morning Comment 4.9 Futures: During the night session, the most-traded alumina futures contract AO2605 opened at 2,681 yuan/mt, reaching a high of 2,693 yuan/mt and a low of 2,672 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,676 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt from the previous day. Open interest increased by 6,480 lots to 182,300 lots, as bulls and bears continued to wrestle in the market. From a technical perspective, the closing price was below MA5 (2,709.80), MA10 (2,793.60), and MA30 (2,871.73.37), indicating certain overhead resistance for upward movement. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator DEA (-9.09) crossed above DIF (-47.11), with a "death cross continuation," and the histogram stood at -76.03. Alumina futures are expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term, and attention should continue to be paid to geopolitical impacts, commissioning plans for new capacity, and inventory changes. Ore: As of April 8, 2026, the SMM imported bauxite index was at $68.41/mt, down $0.06/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea FOB average price was at $38.5/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average price was at $68.5/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Australian low-temperature bauxite CIF average price was at $61.5/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Australian high-temperature bauxite CIF average price was at $56.5/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The Malaysia bauxite CIF average price was at $52/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The Malaysia bauxite CIF (washed) average price was at $62.5/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The Ghana bauxite CIF price was at $76.5/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The bauxite CFR (Turkey) price was at $78/mt, unchanged from last Friday. Overall, domestic ore supply remained relatively sufficient, and ore prices were basically stable. For imported ore, against the backdrop of ocean freight rate fluctuations, major mines controlled shipments, market sentiment toward trading quotas weakened, and coupled with still-high inventories at alumina refineries in China (approximately 93 days), procurement demand was suppressed, with buyers and sellers continuing to wrestle over pricing. Ore prices are unlikely to see significant growth in the short term, and the market should focus on the implementation of Guinea's "quota system" policy and ocean freight rate trends going forward. Spot Price: As of April 8, 2025, the SMM alumina index was at 2,781.23 yuan/mt, down 4.54 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Shandong alumina index was at 2,766.53 yuan/mt, down 5.16 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Henan alumina index was at 2,818.04 yuan/mt, down 8.02 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Shanxi alumina index was at 2,803.53 yuan/mt, down 6.35 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Guizhou alumina index was at 2,814.25 yuan/mt, down 2.62 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Guangxi alumina index was at 2,768.11 yuan/mt, down 3.01 yuan/mt MoM. Spot-Futures Price Spread Daily Report: According to SMM data, on April 8, the SMM alumina index was at a premium of 87.23 yuan/mt against the latest transaction price of the most-traded contract at 11:30 AM. Warrant Daily Report: On April 8, total registered alumina warrants increased by 1,492 mt from the previous trading day to 452,100 mt. In Shandong, registered alumina warrants increased by 1,492 mt from the previous trading day to 52,000 mt. In Henan, registered alumina warrants remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 17,710 mt. In Guangxi, registered alumina warrants remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 29,452 mt. In Gansu, registered alumina warrants remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 49,847 mt. In Xinjiang, registered alumina warrants remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 30.31 mt. Markets Outside China: As of April 8, 2026, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $320/mt, the ocean freight rate was $32.15/mt, and the USD/CNY selling rate was around 6.85. This translated to a selling price at major domestic ports of approximately 2,804.50 yuan/mt, which was 23.27 yuan/mt higher than the alumina index price. According to the SMM model, the import window was closed. Summary: As of last Thursday, the alumina market in China saw slight destocking, with overall inventory decreasing by 22,000 mt. From a supply-demand structure perspective, inventory changes were mainly driven by destocking at aluminum smelters and the gradual emergence of new production from the supply side. Supply side, a certain alumina refinery in Shandong started feeding at month-end last week. Although the industry operating rate edged down by 0.23 percentage points this week, weekly production edged up by 2,000 mt. With the commissioning of new capacity, the supply side showed a marginally looser trend overall. Inventory side, aluminum smelters destocked by 41,000 mt, mainly because the spot alumina market in south China was relatively tight, and spot prices rose compared with the previous period, leading to lower restocking willingness and further accelerating inventory declines at aluminum smelters. Finished product inventories at alumina refineries edged up by 4,000 mt to 1.237 million mt, mainly driven by price rebounds that boosted production enthusiasm at enterprises, with inventories seeing slight buildup after production increased. Port inventories as well as in-transit and platform inventories saw relatively small changes this week, mainly due to no new vessel arrivals, with external circulation channels remaining stable. SHFE futures warrant side, inventories in Xinjiang remained at high levels, the overall pace of shipping to delivery warehouses slowed down compared with the previous period, and prices declined during the period, reducing market willingness to ship to delivery warehouses, which somewhat suppressed the increase in futures warrants. Looking ahead to next week, as newly commissioned capacity continues to release, supply-side increments are expected to gradually emerge. Given insufficient restocking momentum on the demand side, alumina inventories are expected to show signs of slight buildup, with overall prices likely to remain relatively stable in the short term. However, the marginal impact of increased supply on the market is expected to gradually intensify, and the inventory structure may shift toward buildup. [Data other than public information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.]

SMM Alumina Morning Comment 4.7 Futures: Before the holiday (April 3), alumina had no night session. On that day, the most-traded alumina futures contract AO2605 opened at 2,768 yuan/mt, reached a high of 2,770 yuan/mt, hit a low of 2,723 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,741 yuan/mt, down 23 yuan/mt from the previous day. Open interest decreased by 14,400 lots to 178,000 lots, as bulls and bears continued to wrestle in the market. From a technical perspective, the closing price was below MA5 (2,806.80), MA10 (2,896.50), and MA30 (2,888.37), indicating certain overhead resistance for upward movement. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator DEA (20.11) crossed above DIF (-15.03), with a "death cross continuation," and the histogram bar at -70.21, suggesting that alumina futures are expected to be in the doldrums in the short term. Continued attention should be paid to geopolitical impacts, commissioning plans for new capacity, and inventory changes. Industry Updates: 1) According to SMM statistics on April 3, total bauxite inventory at 10 domestic ports increased by 2.17 million mt MoM. 2) According to SMM, the caustic soda procurement price for mainstream alumina refineries in Guangxi Province in April rose by 450 yuan/mt MoM from March, with the 50% ion-membrane liquid caustic soda delivery-to-factory prices at approximately 3,500 yuan/mt (converted to 100% concentration), with slight price differences across regions due to varying transportation distances. Ore: As of April 4, 2026, the SMM imported bauxite index was at $68.47/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the SMM Guinea FOB average price was at $38.5/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average price was at $68.5/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the SMM Australian low-temperature bauxite CIF average price was at $61.5/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the SMM Australian high-temperature bauxite CIF average price was at $56.5/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the Malaysian bauxite CIF average price was at $52/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the Malaysian bauxite CIF (washed) average price was at $62.5/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the Ghanaian bauxite CIF price was at $76.5/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the bauxite CFR (Turkey) price was at $78/mt, flat from last Friday. Overall, domestic ore supply was relatively sufficient, and ore prices were basically stable. Import ore side, against the backdrop of ocean freight rate fluctuations, major mines controlled shipments, market sentiment toward trading quotas weakened, and coupled with alumina refinery inventories remaining at high levels (approximately 93 days), procurement demand was suppressed, with buyers and sellers continuing to negotiate on pricing. Short-term ore prices are unlikely to see significant growth, and the market should focus on the implementation of Guinea's "quota system" policy and ocean freight rate trends. Spot Prices: As of April 3, 2025, the SMM alumina index was at 2,786.33 yuan/mt, down 1.4 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Shandong alumina index was at 2,772.26 yuan/mt, down 1.4 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Henan alumina index was at 2,827.37 yuan/mt, down 1.1 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Shanxi alumina index was at 2,810.14 yuan/mt, down 0.66 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Guizhou alumina index was at 2,817.52 yuan/mt, down 1.9 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Guangxi alumina index was at 2,772 yuan/mt, down 3.53 yuan/mt MoM. Spot-Futures Price Spread Daily Report: According to SMM data, on April 3, the SMM alumina index was at a premium of 46.33 yuan/mt against the most-traded contract's latest transaction price at 11:30 AM. Warrant Daily Report: On April 3, total registered alumina warrants increased by 14,340 mt from the previous trading day to 450,900 mt. Shandong region alumina warrants increased by 8,942 mt from the previous trading day to 52,888 mt; Henan region alumina warrants increased by 5,094 mt from the previous trading day to 17,710 mt; Guangxi region alumina warrants decreased by 901 mt from the previous trading day to 32,154 mt; Gansu region alumina warrants remained flat from the previous trading day at 49,847 mt; Xinjiang region alumina warrants increased by 1,204 mt from the previous trading day to 29.83 mt. Markets Outside China: As of March 26, 2026, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $312/mt, the ocean freight rate was $31.05/mt, and the USD/CNY selling rate was around 6.92. This translated to a domestic mainstream port selling price of approximately 2,762.32 yuan/mt, which was 11.02 yuan/mt below the alumina index price. According to the SMM model calculation, the import window was open. Summary: As of last Thursday, the domestic alumina market showed a slight destocking trend, with overall inventory decreasing by 22,000 mt. Supply-demand structure side, inventory changes were mainly driven by aluminum smelter destocking and the gradual emergence of new production from the supply side. Supply side, a certain alumina refinery in Shandong started feeding at month-end last week. Although the industry operating rate edged down by 0.23 percentage points this week, weekly production edged up by 2,000 mt. With the commissioning of new capacity, the supply side showed a marginally looser trend overall. Inventory side, aluminum smelters destocked by 41,000 mt, mainly because the spot alumina market in south China was relatively tight, and spot prices rose compared with the previous period, leading to lower restocking willingness and further accelerating the decline in aluminum smelter inventories. Finished product inventories at alumina refineries edged up by 4,000 mt to 1.237 million mt, mainly driven by the price rebound boosting enterprise production enthusiasm, with inventories seeing slight buildup after production increased. Port inventories as well as in-transit and platform inventories saw little change this week, mainly due to no new vessel arrivals, with external circulation channels remaining stable. SHFE futures warrant side, Xinjiang region inventories remained at high levels, the overall pace of shipping to delivery warehouses slowed compared with the previous period, and meanwhile cargo prices declined during the period, reducing market willingness to ship to delivery warehouses, which somewhat suppressed the increase in futures warrants. Looking ahead to next week, as newly commissioned capacity continues to release, supply-side increments are expected to gradually emerge. Given insufficient restocking momentum on the demand side, alumina inventories are expected to show signs of slight inventory buildup, with overall prices likely to remain relatively stable in the short term. However, the marginal impact of increased supply on the market is expected to gradually intensify, with the possibility of the inventory structure shifting toward buildup. [Data other than public information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.]