SMM, June 15: Metals Market: As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market rose across the board. SHFE copper gained 1.35%, SHFE tin surged 4.35%, SHFE nickel rose 1.27%, SHFE aluminum edged up 0.31%, SHFE zinc climbed 2.37%, and SHFE lead increased 1.21%. In addition, the most-traded cast aluminum futures rose 0.67%, while the most-traded alumina futures slipped slightly. Lithium carbonate most-traded contract fell 1.8%. Silicon metal most-traded contract added 0.29%. Polysilicon most-traded futures gained 0.67%. Ferrous metals mostly rose: iron ore up 0.39%, rebar up 0.41%, hot-rolled coil up 0.5%, and stainless steel up 1.54%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract dropped 1.97%, while the most-traded coke contract advanced 1.06%. Overseas base metals: as of 11:38, LME metals almost all rose. LME copper gained 0.89%, LME aluminum edged down 0.17%, LME lead up 0.56%, LME zinc up 0.85%, LME tin surged 2.35%, and LME nickel up 1.12%. Precious metals: as of 11:38, COMEX gold climbed 2.47% and COMEX silver surged 3.52%. For domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract jumped 4.58%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract soared 7.93%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures rose 2.67%, and the most-traded palladium futures rose 2.36%. As of the midday close, the most-traded European container shipping futures contract fell 3.44% to 3,773.5 points. As of 11:38 on June 15, selected futures midday quotes: Spot and Fundamentals Zinc: Today, mainstream #0 zinc transaction prices concentrated in the range of 24,650–24,885 yuan/mt, Shuangyan mainly traded at 24,740–24,945 yuan/mt, and #1 zinc mainstream transaction prices were at 24,580–24,815 yuan/mt. In the morning session, quotes against the SMM average price carried a premium of 10–30 yuan/mt, and there were no quotes against the futures price yet... Macro Front China: [NDRC and other departments: Launch a three-year campaign for energy conservation and carbon reduction retrofitting in key industries] The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and other departments have decided to organize and implement a three-year campaign for energy conservation and carbon reduction retrofitting in key industries including steel, aluminum, cement, flat glass, oil refining, ethylene, synthetic ammonia, methanol, and coal-fired power. It is noted that these key industries have large-scale and high-intensity energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions, making them critical for improving energy efficiency, reducing coal consumption, and lowering carbon emissions. Starting from 2026, focusing on these nine industries, the campaign will fully implement energy conservation and carbon reduction retrofitting over three years, driving enterprises to elevate their energy and carbon efficiency as much as possible and significantly improving the green and low-carbon development level of the industries. From 2028, the scope of implementation will be further expanded based on actual conditions, with other industries added and advanced step by step, and each region can proceed in an orderly manner based on work needs. [PBOC reverse repo net injection of CNY 206.5 billion today] PBOC conducted a 425 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation in the open market at an interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous day. CNY 218.5 billion reverse repos matured today. On the US dollar front: As of 11:38, the US dollar index fell 0.27% to 99.53. Influenced by the cooling of the Middle East situation, the market reduced its bets on a rate hike by the US Fed. Swap rates indicate that traders now expect a probability of about 60% for a 25 basis point rate hike by the Fed before December, down from about 80% last Friday. (Jin Shi Data APP) Additionally, according to the CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed maintaining interest rates unchanged in June is 98.5%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at 1.5%. By July, the probability of maintaining rates is 91.3%, with a 7.4% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike and a 1.4% probability of a rate cut. (Jin Shi Data APP) On the data front: In early June, US consumer sentiment rebounded for the first time in four months, as falling gasoline prices provided some relief to Americans facing surging inflation. A survey released on Friday showed that the University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment index for June rose to 48.9 from May's record low of 44.8. Economists had expected the index to edge up to 46. Consumers expected prices to rise by 4.6% YoY over the next year, down from 4.8% in May. They also anticipated that costs would increase at an average annual rate of 3.4% over the next five to ten years, also below the previous month's expected increase. Although gasoline prices remain above pre-war levels, the decline in recent weeks has somewhat eased Americans' pessimism about their personal finances. The report indicated that low-income consumers, who typically allocate more of their budget to fuel spending, saw significant improvement. Nonetheless, against the backdrop of the Iran war and the resulting inflationary wave, overall economic sentiment remained historically depressed. Survey director Joanne Hsu stated, "While there has been some relief, gasoline prices still have a significant impact on consumers, so the current level of gasoline prices remains broadly unacceptable to consumers and has weakened their view of the economy." (Jin10 Data APP) Data: Markets today will have the release of Switzerland’s May consumer confidence index, the Eurozone’s April seasonally adjusted trade balance, the Eurozone’s April industrial output MoM, Canada’s April wholesale sales MoM, the US June Empire State manufacturing index, the US May industrial output MoM, the US June NAHB housing market index, and China’s May total electricity consumption YoY (TBD), among other data. Also in focus: ECB President Lagarde’s speech; the National Energy Administration’s monthly release of total electricity consumption data around the 15th; and the opening of the G7 summit, which runs through June 17. Crude Oil: As of 11:38, oil prices on both benchmarks fell sharply, with WTI down 5.58% and Brent down 4.76%. A US-Iran peace agreement is about to be signed, easing market concerns over crude supply and putting oil prices under pressure. According to Xinhua News Agency, US President Trump stated on social media on the 14th that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen following the signing of the US-Iran agreement on the 19th to allow for mine-clearing operations. Iran’s deputy foreign minister also stated that an immediate and permanent cessation of military operations on multiple fronts, including Lebanon, would be announced starting tonight. Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said the US nationwide average gasoline price fell below $4 per gallon on Sunday for the first time since April 20. In an optimistic scenario, he expects the nationwide average price could drop below $3.75 per gallon before July 4, though hurricane season could be a major variable in the latter half of the summer. “ The coming weeks are critical—any major misstep could significantly impact the subsequent direction of oil prices.” (Wall Street CN) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

June 11, 2026 The Big Picture The sharp rise in the price of gold since 2023 peaked at $5,500 earlier this year. Since then, the price has been clearly trending downward. Recently, the 200-day moving average and the upper line of the green trend channel were broken to the downside. Currently, there are four support levels: + the round number of $4,000 + the low from late 2025 at this level + the upper line of the orange trend channel + the purple upward trend line (derived from the 24-day lows) Should the gold price fall even further, another massive support level awaits in the $3,400–$3,500 range. Here, on the one hand, lies the resistance zone from 2025, which had formed prior to the last two upward waves (gray line), and on the other hand, the middle line of the orange trend channel and the lower green trend line. Below that, the round figure of $3,000 would come into focus—that is also where the lower line of the orange trend channel will be located in the near future. Source: Comdirect Source: https://goldinvest.de/en/chart-update-gold-will-it-hold-at-4-000-where-are-the-next-support-levels

[Domestic and overseas aluminum prices see a modest simultaneous recovery; China's destocking stabilizes with limited upside room] SMM maintains its assessment that inventory will drop to around 1.28 million mt by late June, and is expected to further approach 1.2 million mt by end-June or early July. The futures market sees short-term stabilization signals, but high domestic inventory pressure remains relatively evident, which is expected to limit the upside room for domestic aluminum prices. In the short term, domestic aluminum prices are expected to mainly fluctuate and consolidate.

On the afternoon of June 2, the People's Government of Leiyang City and Centennial Tree Group Co., Ltd. signed an investment cooperation agreement for the green smart manufacturing project of high-end silicon-aluminum-based functional new materials with an annual capacity of 300,000 mt. The green smart manufacturing project for high-end silicon-aluminum-based functional new materials is expected to cover a total area of about 310 mu, build workshops of approximately 90,000 m², and is planned to have a deep processing capacity of 300,000 mt per year. After completion, it will rely on Leiyang's abundant kaolinite resources to realize full-chain production from raw ore mining to high-end ceramic raw materials, coating fillers, and papermaking additives.

Jinqiao Green New Materials (Jiangmen) Co., Ltd. plans to construct a pure electric low-carbon aluminum alloy project, which is currently in the environmental impact statement acceptance announcement stage.

From June 3 to June 5, Indonesia Critical Minerals 2026 was held at the Pullman Jakarta Central Park in Jakarta, Indonesia. The conference was organized by Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) and co-organized by the Indonesia Nickel Miners Association (APNI) , the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Indonesia , the National Economic Council of Indonesia , and MMR , in a strategic partnership with the Jakarta Futures Exchange . The conference featured six dedicated forums: the main forum, the nickel and cobalt forum, the tin forum, the coal & energy transition forum, the aluminum forum, and dedicated sub-forums, attracting 3,500+ attendees from 45 countries and regions worldwide, featuring more than 120+ speakers sharing insights on market prices, supply-demand patterns, industry policies, low-carbon development, and ESG development, etc. Additionally, SMM has also meticulously arranged two rounds of panel discussions: Senior Executives' Roadmaps to Overcome Resource, Cost, Technology & ESG Challenges The "Green Premium" Myth vs. Reality: Who Will Pay for Decarbonization in the Critical Minerals Supply Chain? Conference Background In recent years, global nickel and cobalt raw material supply has frequently encountered various disruptions: Indonesia significantly lowered its nickel ore mining quota to 260–270 million mt, tightening nickel resource release at the source; the DRC continuously reduced cobalt ore export quotas, leading to a marked contraction in tradable cobalt raw materials worldwide. Multiple supply variables continued to roil nickel and cobalt commodity futures. Meanwhile, Indonesia is not only the core hub of the global nickel industry chain but also a key production area for global new cobalt supply at this stage. Its industrial control policies, commissioning pace of capacity, and industry chain layout changes directly shape the evolution of the global nickel-cobalt supply-demand pattern. Currently, the global nickel and cobalt industry is at a critical development stage featuring supply-demand restructuring, policy innovation, and value reassessment. To accurately forecast the nickel and cobalt market trends in 2026, deeply analyze the latest industrial control details in Indonesia, and help upstream and downstream players across the industry chain break down collaboration barriers, the Nickel and Cobalt Forum was launched. The forum brought together global mines, smelters, trading firms, downstream end-users, and investment and financing institutions to conduct in-depth discussions on key topics such as market supply and demand trends, policies and regulations, production technology iteration, and cross-border industrial cooperation, jointly exploring new growth drivers for high-quality industry development. Click to view the conference photo gallery June 4: Keynote Speeches Keynote Speech: Mining Regulatory Outlook: RKAB Quota Planning and Indonesia's Next-Phase Downstream Mineral Expansion Path Guest Speaker: Totoh Abdul Fatah, Secretary General of the Directorate General of Mineral and Coal, Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources Totoh Abdul Fatah noted that RKAB is the key policy instrument for Indonesia to regulate mineral output, coordinate the orderly rollout of industries, and align with the nation's downstream industrialization priorities. Indonesia is endowed with exceptional mineral and coal resources, with significant reserves and capacity in several key strategic commodities including nickel, cobalt, copper, tin, bauxite, gold and silver, and iron ore. Leveraging these unique resource advantages, Indonesia holds a critical strategic position in the global mineral supply chain, and its value is especially prominent in the energy transition wave, providing strong support for the development of power batteries, renewable energy equipment, and high-end manufacturing. The next phase of downstream mineral development is not about curbing growth, but about improving development quality, clarifying development direction, strengthening regulatory management, and reinforcing the sustainability of growth. Future smelter layout must match ore supply capability, be aligned with resource conservation, and coordinate multiple factors including energy infrastructure readiness, environmental protection access standards, and domestic industry value addition. In light of these considerations, the Indonesian government is promoting an industrial logic shift from pure capacity expansion to strategic optimization of resource allocation, ensuring that mineral resources are precisely directed to industry segments that can maximize national economic benefits. Indonesia's downstream mineral industrialization has made concrete progress. Currently, 14 smelters are in operation, primarily producing products such as nickel oxide, pig iron, and copper cathode. Covering both existing operating plants and new projects under construction, the entire industry chain has attracted a total realized investment of $7.849 billion. Breakdown: nickel sector investment of $2.535 billion, aluminum sector $2.181 billion, iron ore projects $47 million, and copper sector $3.084 billion. This is continuously improving the supporting system of the domestic mineral industry chain. This progress demonstrates that Indonesia's downstream mineral policy has achieved tangible results. However, challenges remain for the industry: not only must new smelting projects be completed and commissioned on schedule, but they also require stable supporting supply to achieve efficient operations, green and low-carbon production, and deep integration into the domestic industry chain value system. Indonesia's development direction is very clear: the downstream transformation of minerals will continue to advance, and during the implementation process, policy enforcement constraints and top-level strategic guidance will be further strengthened. The RKAB management system and ore source allocation control rules are key to building a robust and more resilient industrial ecosystem. Future smelting project planning needs to coordinate four key dimensions: sustainable resource development, supply-demand market equilibrium, ESG compliance implementation, and enhancement of national value added. Indonesia has always been open to quality investment, especially high-quality investment, relying on foreign capital to achieve technology transfer and localization, expand local employment, and support long-term economic growth. In other words, Indonesia's industrial development not only pursues growth, but is committed to achieving high-quality growth that is compliant, sustainable, and globally competitive. Keynote Speech: Nickel at a Crossroads：A Five-Year Outlook on Global Nickel — Navigating Policy, Supply, and Demand Shifts Speaker: Thomas Feng, Head of Industry Research, Shanghai Metals Market Feng projects that the global primary nickel market will show a supply deficit in 2026, continue the oversupply trend in 2027, and shift to a tight balance in 2029. Regarding refined nickel prices, on the cost side, global sulfur supply and demand will face a persistent deficit in the next 2–3 years. In the case of short-term strait blockades, sulfur prices remain high, strengthening the cost support for the sulfur-MHP-refined nickel chain. From a macro perspective, the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict has triggered wild swings in energy prices, pushing up inflation expectations. In the short term, global commodity prices will face considerable fluctuations. In the long term, global geopolitical uncertainty may become the new normal in the future, increasing the volatility of refined nickel prices. Nickel Ore Upstream Repricing: Indonesia's Benchmark Price Raise, Quota Tightening, and Increased Dependence on the Philippines Indonesia Nickel Ore RKAB Quotas: Tight Balance Emerges as the 2026 Main Theme According to SMM analysis, following the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources' (ESDM) official denial of market rumors that RKAB production quotas would be raised across the board by 25%–30%, the government will handle supplementary quotas under strict case-by-case reviews starting from H2 2026, evaluating each miner's compliance, capacity, and resource reserves. At its core, this constitutes a routine and orderly optimisation of the existing 260–270 million wmt quota cap, paving the way for a more stable and sustainable market environment. Supply RKAB Approval Progress: As of April, Indonesia's cumulative approved RKAB quotas stand at 240 million wmt. SMM expects that, under expectations of continued nickel ore supply tightening, supplementary quotas around mid-year 2026 will be approximately 15%. Philippine Import Driver: SMM expects that this year, Indonesia's nickel ore imports from the Philippines will rise from approximately 15 million in 2025 to 22 million. Tightness in the domestic trade nickel ore supply will accelerate supplementation through imports from the Philippines. Demand Affected by the tight sulfur supply, MHP output has fallen short of earlier expectations. As a result, Indonesia's nickel ore demand for full-year 2026 is expected to be reduced to 303 million wmt. In 2026, actual nickel ore production will remain constrained by factors such as the rainy season and the pace of RKAB quota approvals, leaving overall output below theoretical supply levels. Panel Discussion: Upstream Opportunities & Challenges for Nickel Mine Owners Moderator: Enzo Brooklyn, Senior Nickel Analyst, SMM Panelists: Luca Maiotti, Policy Analyst, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Aldo Namora, President Director, PT Ceria Metalindo Prima Jerome Baudelet, CEO, Eramet Indonesia Patrick Lim, Country Head, HyperStrong Indonesia Keynote Speech: Achieving Energy Efficiency and Operational Success: The MMD Approach at Mah Moe Speaker: Fuad Budidarma Pratama, General Manager, MMD Mining Machinery Indonesia Keynote Speech: Global Nickel Market Outlook Speaker: Ricardo Ferreira, Director of Market Research and Statistics, International Nickel Study Group (INSG) Ricardo Ferreira noted that global primary nickel production is estimated to have declined by approximately 4% YoY, measured across the full chain from raw ore mining to finished primary nickel products. Most of this decrease originated from Indonesia, while expectations also pointed to a pullback in Chinese nickel output. According to the monthly bulletin released earlier, global primary nickel already edged down by about 1% in Q1, with Indonesia down roughly 3% and China down about 1%. Keynote Speech: New Refining Technologies for Laterite Nickel and Spent Batteries Speaker: Dr. Chunwei Liu, Managing Director of Resource Extraction, Botree Recycling Technologies Distribution of Laterite Nickel Ore Resources Laterite nickel ore accounts for 55% of global nickel resources and is the main source of nickel for industrial production worldwide. With the continuous development and promotion of high-nickel batteries, market demand for nickel—and consequently for laterite nickel ore processing—has grown significantly. Geographic concentration: Mainly distributed in tropical countries within 30° north and south of the equator. Three core regions: Southeast Asia: Indonesia, the Philippines (major laterite nickel ore producing areas). Americas: Cuba, Brazil. Oceania: Australia, New Caledonia. Panel Discussion: Nickel Price Volatility, Product Spreads, and Policy Shifts: What Will Define the Market in the next 5 years? Moderator: Slupek Kamila, Secretary-General, INSG Panelists: Jim Lennon, Analyst, Macquarie Septian Hario Seto, Member, National Economic Council Republic of Indonesia Denis Sharypin, Strategic Marketing Director, Norilsk Nickel Edric Koh, Head of Corporate Sales, Asia, London Metal Exchange Mark Selby, CEO & Director, Canada Nickel Company Keynote Speech: Korean Battery Supply Chain Strategy and Indonesia's Role Speaker: James (IKHWAN) Choi, Country Manager, Korea Office, SMM Korea Office Keynote Speech: Retreat or Evolve? The Counter-Attack of High-Nickel Batteries under the LFP Siege: Solid State, 4680, and the "Range Anxiety" Premium Speaker: Jared Zhu, Head of Consulting, Renewable Energy & Non-ferrous Metals, Shanghai Metals Market Jared noted that LFP batteries have steadily increased their market share in power battery and energy storage markets in recent years. With the rapid development of emerging sectors such as humanoid robots, industrial robots, and electric vertical take-off and landing vehicles (eVTOL), ternary batteries, leveraging their performance advantages, are more competitive than LFP batteries. Solid-state batteries are regarded by the industry as a must-win field for future competition, but it is worth noting that this new technology, capable of rewriting industry rules, still has a long development cycle before full commercialization. Positioning in the LFP Era LFP Accelerates Replacement of Ni-Co-Mn in Energy Storage and EVs, Leading in Scale and Growth SMM forecasts the global share of EV power battery types from 2026 to 2027, expecting LFP batteries to account for around 68% in 2026, with that ratio rising to about 70% in 2027. For ESS battery types, from 2022 to 2025, the share of LFP batteries in global ESS batteries continued to rise, and in 2026, it is expected to increase to around 99%. Keynote Speech: QMAG - Market Leader of Calcined Magnesia for Nickel/Cobalt MHP Production Speaker: Christoph Beyer, Managing Director of Queensland Magnesia (QMAG) Dr. Keynote Speech: Cobalt in Focus: Powering the Next Chapter of Critical Minerals Speaker: Dinah McLeod, Director General, Cobalt Institute June 5: Nickel and Cobalt Forum Keynote Speeches Keynote Speech: Balancing Risk and Reward: Investing in Indonesia's Nickel and Cobalt Value Chain Speaker: Izzie Huo, Senior Research Fellow, Shanghai Metals Market Panel Discussion: Too Much Nickel? Balancing Oversupply Risks with Long-Term Investment in Indonesia Moderator: Jean Tang, Commercial Director, Shanghai Metals Market Panelists: Ali Safdar, Managing Director & Partner, BCG (Boston Consulting Group) Arif Perdana Kusumah, Chairman, Forum Industri Nikel Indonesia (FINI) Ditya Maharhani Harninda, Senior Vice President Corporate Banking 2, PT Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (Persero) Keynote Speech: Valve Solutions for Severe Service in HPAL Speaker: Changsong Deng, President of International Business Division, ANTIWEAR Keynote Speech: Breaking the Import Dependency: Economics and Feasibility of Pyrite-based Acid Production for Indonesia's HPAL Supply Chain Speaker: Bede Beresford Evans, President Director, PT Sumbawa Timur Mining Keynote Speech: Key Technology and Economic Analysis of AI Power Microgrid Solutions in Mining Speaker: Frank Qi, CEO, Ai Power (Suzhou) Technology Co., Ltd. Keynote Speech: Value of Analytical Solutions in Mining Processes Speaker: Toh Tiong Yen, Sales Manager, Malvern Panalytical Keynote Speech: New Caledonia's Nickel Landscape Speaker: Gabriel Bensimon, Special Advisor to the President of the Government on Nickel and Mining-Related Matters, The Government of New Caledonia Keynote Speech: Global Flow of Nickel from Mining to End-Use Speaker: Dr. Steukers Veronique, President, Nickel Institute Primary nickel production is now dominated by Indonesia. In 2025, Indonesia produced around 50% of the world's primary nickel, compared to just 6% a decade earlier. Primary nickel production in the rest of the world declined. In 2025, primary nickel production in the rest of the world, excluding Indonesia and China, accounted for just over 20% of the global total, down from 65% a decade earlier. Indonesia and China are the core driving forces shaping the global nickel supply chain landscape. From the perspective of nickel product circulation structure, NPI, backed by Indonesia's capacity advantage, firmly dominates the circulation mainstream; in terms of global nickel raw material supply by grade, Class 2 nickel accounts for approximately 58%, Class 1 nickel for just under 30%, and nickel chemical products for the remaining around 13%. Panel Discussion: Meet the Future of ESG: Standard, Challenges and Opportunities in Mining and Processing Moderator: Katz Benjamin, Policy Analyst, OECD Panelists: Dr. Chris Schlekat, Executive Director of NIPERA, Nickel Institute Ning Wang, Manager, Sustainable Development Department, China Chamber of Commerce of Metals, Minerals & Chemicals Importers & Exporters Yumo Li, Head of ESG Office in Tsingshan Board, Tsingshan Holding Group Vinícius Mendes Ferreira, Executive Advisor for Nickel Downstreaming, PT Vale Indonesia Fan Li, Sustainability and ESG Services Manager, dss+ Tom Fairlie, Senior Sustainability Manager, Cobalt Institute