SMM July 2: Overnight, the LME lead 3M contract opened at $1,870/mt. In early trading, prices repeatedly drifted lower, dipping to an intraday low of $1,853/mt. Subsequently, bearish selling pressure eased somewhat, and prices consolidated and rebounded. During the latter half of the evening session, the uptrend accelerated, and prices gradually rebounded, reaching a high of $1,881.5/mt. Near the close, prices pulled back under slight pressure and finally settled at $1,866.5/mt, forming a candlestick with a long lower shadow, down $5.5/mt, or 0.29%. Overnight, the SHFE lead 2608 contract opened at 15,895 yuan/mt. After a brief surge to 15,930 yuan/mt, bulls ran out of steam, and bears entered to press prices into a sustained retreat, touching a low of 15,795 yuan/mt. Finding slight support from small buy orders at the low, it rebounded modestly, currently trading at 15,810 yuan/mt, down 65 yuan/mt, or 0.41%. Trading volume expanded, and open interest increased slightly by 1,263 lots. The contract retreated after a rapid rise and exhibited overall weakness. LME lead inventories are high, Goldman Sachs keeps adding to bearish positions, and inflows of low-grade lead imports are dragging on SHFE lead. On the supply side, lead concentrates are in short supply, and TCs continue to fall in July; primary lead smelters that underwent maintenance will resume production in July and are expected to increase output by 20,000 mt. Secondary lead raw material supply is tight, scrap battery prices have fallen, and production resumption plans are highly dependent on lead prices. In July, the battery sector enters the off-season, with downstream users only making small, low-price trial purchases and no concentrated restocking. Lead prices are in the doldrums in the near term; they will only stop falling once downstream users make concentrated purchases and secondary lead production cuts materialize.

Futures: The overnight LME lead 3M contract opened at $1,870/mt, then drifted lower in the initial session, dipping to $1,853/mt during the day before bearish pressure eased and futures rebounded. In the latter part of the evening session, the rally accelerated, with prices gradually climbing to a high of $1,881.5/mt. Towards the close, futures pulled back under modest pressure to settle at $1,866.5/mt, forming a long lower shadow candlestick and losing $5.5/mt, a decline of 0.29%. The overnight SHFE lead 2608 contract opened at 15,895 yuan/mt. After a brief early spike to 15,930 yuan/mt, bulls lost momentum as bears entered to push prices lower, with the contract dropping to a low of 15,795 yuan/mt. Gaining some support from light buying at the lows, prices rebounded slightly and are now trading near 15,810 yuan/mt, down 65 yuan/mt, a decline of 0.41%. Trading volume expanded and open interest edged up by 1,263 lots, with the contract retreating after a rapid rise and showing overall weakness. On the macro front: Fed Chairman Warsh: Inflation expectations and inflation risks have both diminished in recent weeks. The US ADP employment change for June increased by less than expected. Warsh reportedly appointed a Bessent aide as a Fed advisor. Meta is reportedly considering selling surplus AI computing power. Wang Yi held a telephone call with US Secretary of State Rubio. An agent confirmed that MLCC giant Yageo raised prices. Spot Fundamentals: SHFE lead has recently suffered successive breakdowns, and losses widened again today, with suppliers holding prices firm on their cargoes—lead ingot cargoes in the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai regions were quoted at premiums. Meanwhile, the discount on EXW primary lead smelter cargoes narrowed. In major producing regions, quotations were near parity with the SMM #1 lead average price. For secondary lead, smelter losses deepened as lead prices fell, and some enterprises signaled potential production cuts or suspensions. Market quotes were scarce, with a few secondary refined lead offers at premiums of 0–75 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. As the semi-annual liquidity squeeze eased in July, large downstream enterprises resumed normal procurement and showed marginally higher inquiry interest. However, given the sharp decline in lead prices, most downstream enterprises remained cautious, leaving market trading volumes subdued. Inventories: As of July 1, LME lead inventory decreased by 1,900 mt to 301,775 mt. As of June 29, SMM data showed total social inventory of lead ingots across five major domestic regions climbed to 71,200 mt, reaching a stage high since June, with visible inventory buildup pressure remaining pronounced. Lead Price Outlook Today: LME lead inventory remains elevated, while Goldman Sachs continues to add short positions, and inflows of low-grade lead imports are weighing on SHFE lead. Supply side, lead concentrate availability is tight, with July TCs extending their decline; primary lead smelters resuming production after maintenance are expected to add 20,000 mt of output in July. Secondary lead raw material supply is tight, scrap battery prices fall, and production resumption plans are highly dependent on lead prices. In July, batteries enter the consumption off-season, with downstream only making small tentative purchases at low prices, and there is no concentrated restocking. Lead prices are in the doldrums in the short term, and a stop in their decline will require downstream concentrated purchasing and the implementation of secondary lead production cuts.

SMM, Jul 2: Metals Market: Overnight, base metals on overseas and China markets showed mixed performance. Only LME nickel, SHFE copper, and SHFE tin rose, with SHFE tin up 0.99%, LME nickel up 0.49%, and SHFE copper up 0.07%. SHFE aluminum closed flat at 22,485 yuan/mt. LME zinc led the decline, down 1.68%, while losses in other metals were within 1%. The most-traded alumina contract rose 0.11%, and the most-traded aluminum casting contract rose 0.4%. In the ferrous metals sector overnight, iron ore led gains, up 1.7%. Rebar rose 0.1%, while stainless steel fell 0.54% and hot-rolled coil edged down 0.09%. Coking coal and coke, coking coal closed flat at 1,265 yuan/mt, and coke fell 1.12%. In the precious metals sector overnight, COMEX gold rose 0.15% and COMEX silver fell 0.53%. On the domestic front, SHFE gold rose 1.23% and SHFE silver rose 1.44%. As of 6:43 a.m. on Jul 2, overnight closing quotes: Macro Front China: The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI, compiled by RatingDog, came in at 51.7 in June, staying in expansion territory for the seventh consecutive month. [Shenzhen Housing Market Trading Volume Hits Near 6-Year High in June] Data released today by the Shenzhen Centaline Research Center showed that combined new and second-hand residential home sales in Shenzhen reached 8,878 units in June, down 11.9% MoM but up 14.2% YoY. This was the highest transaction volume for the same period since 2021. Specifically, online registrations of new homes (pre-sale and move-in) totaled 3,785 units, down 16.7% MoM but up 15.6% YoY. Second-hand home transfers reached 5,093 units, down 8% MoM but up 13.1% YoY. (Jinshi Data APP) US Dollar: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index rose 0.24% to 101.41. Fortress Securities stated that investors are underestimating the likelihood of the Fed raising interest rates as early as this month, as Chairman Kevin Warsh appears ready to take a more preemptive approach to fighting inflation. The firm's head of macro strategy, Frank Flight, continues to view two rate hikes this year—in September and December—as his base case. Even so, he noted that the market is pricing in a roughly 30% probability of a July hike, a level he considers too low. (From Wallstreetcn APP) Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh set an ambitious timetable for the US central bank to "discover" and begin relying on real-time economic data, which he argues would be superior to what he described as "problematic government reports." "My aspiration is that in nine to 12 months, we will be leveraging new technologies to understand what is happening in the real economy in a synchronous, real-time manner, enabling us as central bank policymakers to make better decisions. We will no longer rely solely on data from government agencies that suffer from statistical biases and where surveys have lost their relevance," Warsh said at a monetary policy forum in Portugal. "My ideal data is 'what's happening now.' If we do our jobs well, a year from today we will say: we have uncovered data that helps us make better decisions." Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh stated at the ECB Forum on Central Banking (the final day of the Sintra annual conference) that inflation risks have receded over the past four weeks, while he reaffirmed his commitment to price stability. He declined to provide any forward guidance on future interest rate policy. He described the labour market as "holding steady," noting robust economic demand and strong supply-side performance. Deutsche Bank analysis pointed out that Fed officials' public remarks have declined notably since the Jun 17 FOMC meeting, confirming Warsh's earlier policy stance that "US central bank officials talk too much" and that there is a need to reduce forward guidance and push for "institutional change." (Wallstreetcn) Data: US private-sector job growth slowed in June but increased for the 12th consecutive month, showing the labour market cooldown has yet to evolve into a sharp slowdown. Data released Wednesday by ADP Research showed US private payrolls rose by 98,000 in June, below the 119,000 estimated by economists. The prior month's figure was an increase of 122,000. Although the gain missed expectations, the data still supports the judgment that the labour market has been stabilizing this year. Macro Front: Data releases today include the US June unemployment rate, US June seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls, US initial jobless claims for the week ended Jun 27, US June average hourly earnings YoY, US June average hourly earnings MoM, US May factory orders MoM, Switzerland June CPI MoM, and the Eurozone May unemployment rate. Due to the US Independence Day holiday (Jul 3), US June non-farm payrolls data will be released earlier, at 8:30 p.m. Beijing time on Thursday, Jul 2. The US stock market will be closed on Friday, Jul 3. Trading in CME precious metals, energy, foreign exchange, US Treasury, and equity index futures contracts will end early at 1:00 a.m. Beijing time on Jul 4. Trading in ICE Brent crude oil futures contracts will end early at 1:30 a.m. Beijing time on Jul 4. Investors are advised to take note. (Jinshi Data APP) In addition, the Ministry of Commerce will hold its first regular press conference for July. 2027 FOMC voter and San Francisco Fed President Daly will attend a conference on the Spanish economy. Crude Oil: Overnight, oil prices fell across both benchmarks, with WTI crude down 2.03% and Brent crude down 2.41%. The immediate driver of the heavy sell-off was a rapid easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. A White House spokesperson explicitly stated there is a strong chance of reaching a deal between the US and Iran, with delegations from both sides having held indirect talks in Doha on Jul 1 on topics including unfreezing assets and ensuring maritime security in the strait. Both Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley concluded that the global oil market is about to return to severe oversupply. Even accounting for the massive global demand to replenish strategic petroleum reserves, the daily average net surplus in the crude oil market next year will still approach 2 million barrels, exerting long-term pressure on oil prices. (Wallstreetcn) Official data showed US crude oil inventories fell from 415 million barrels at the end of February to 331 million barrels as of Jun 19, hitting their lowest level since 1983. Although these depleted reserves urgently need to be rebuilt, this is not enough to reverse the surplus pattern. Samantha Dart, Goldman Sachs' co-head of global commodities research, estimated global demand to replenish strategic petroleum reserves is slightly above 1 million barrels per day. While this will tighten the market to some extent, it can only partially offset the anticipated surplus, with the market ultimately still facing a net surplus of nearly 2 million barrels per day. Regarding market concerns over future shipping costs in the Strait of Hormuz, Goldman Sachs believes the material impact on global energy prices would be limited. (Wallstreetcn)

SMM June 27 News: Metals market: Last Friday’s overnight session saw nearly all base metals on the domestic market rise. SHFE zinc gained 2.16%, SHFE copper rose 0.9%, SHFE aluminum edged up 0.81%, and SHFE tin advanced 1.66%. SHFE nickel increased 0.36%. SHFE lead dipped 0.37%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract climbed 0.64%, while the most-traded foundry aluminum contract rose 1.66%. Last Friday’s overnight session saw mostly gains in ferrous metals. Stainless steel added 0.48%, iron ore rose 0.54%, and rebar slipped 0.1%. Hot-rolled coil was flat at 3,312 yuan/mt. In coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal futures contract gained 1.13%, and the most-traded coke futures contract rose 1.21%. Last Friday’s overnight session in overseas metals saw broad gains for LME base metals. LME copper edged up. LME aluminum rose 0.39%, while LME lead fell 0.58%. LME zinc gained 1.8%. LME tin advanced 1.69%. LME nickel dipped 0.36%. Last Friday’s overnight session in precious metals : COMEX gold rose 1.37%, but COMEX gold posted a fourth consecutive weekly decline, down 3.37% for the week; COMEX silver gained 1.37%, while COMEX silver fell for a seventh straight week, down 10.79% for the week. Last Friday’s overnight session saw the most-traded SHFE gold contract rise 1.34%, but SHFE gold declined on a weekly basis, down 6.33% for the week; the most-traded SHFE silver contract climbed 2.61%, while SHFE silver declined on a weekly basis, down 15.23% for the week. Macquarie strategists noted that all eyes are currently on the trajectory of inflation and whether central banks, particularly the US Fed, will tighten policy to control prices. The apparent end of the Middle East conflict, combined with a more hawkish Fed stance, has led to a pullback in gold prices. The first meeting under new Fed Chair Walsh struck a “hawkish” tone, with the central bank under his leadership having the capacity to either “drive or suppress” the gold market. The shock from the Middle East situation is expected to drag on global growth in Q3, after which an eventual rebound in global growth and the start of a monetary easing cycle should push gold prices lower, as more investor funds rotate out of precious metals and into other assets. Investors have been taking profits and rotating into equities, which has created room for re-entry into precious metals and could drive a price rebound, but a significant macro event may be needed to reignite investor interest in gold. Spot gold prices are forecast to average $4,641 in 2026, up 35% YoY, but the average price is expected to decline 9.5% to $4,200 in 2027, followed by yearly declines through 2030. The bank lowered its year-end spot gold forecast to $4,300 from $4,400. (Jin10 Data APP) As of 7:46 a.m. on June 27, closing prices from last Friday’s overnight session: Macro front China: [National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): Profits of China’s industrial enterprises above designated size grew 18.8% in January–May, with the electronics sector providing significant support] Data from the NBS showed that total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide reached 3,143.96 billion yuan in January–May, up 18.8% YoY. From January to May, among industrial enterprises above designated size, state-controlled enterprises realized total profits of 1,048.66 billion yuan, up 19.6% YoY; joint-stock enterprises realized total profits of 2,434.81 billion yuan, up 24.1% YoY; foreign-invested enterprises and those funded by Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan investors realized total profits of 695.72 billion yuan, up 4.2% YoY; and private enterprises realized total profits of 772.65 billion yuan, up 10.7% YoY. Yu Weining, chief statistician of the Industrial Department of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), interpreted the profit data of industrial enterprises for January–May 2026. Yu Weining noted that the electronics sector played a significant supporting role. From January to May, profits of the equipment manufacturing industry above designated size increased by 14.1% YoY, boosting the overall profit growth of industrial enterprises above designated size by 5.2 percentage points. From an industry perspective, the global AI technology revolution has led to explosive demand for high-end computing power chips and memory chips, driving rapid profit growth in the electronics sector. From January to May, profits of the electronics industry surged 103.9% YoY, contributing 43.1% to the profit growth of all industrial enterprises above designated size, making it a crucial underpinning for the relatively rapid profit growth of these enterprises. [Series of 7 National Standards for "Artificial Intelligence — Agent Interconnection" Released] At a press conference held by the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR), it was announced that the series of national standards "Artificial Intelligence — Agent Interconnection" has been officially released. With the rapid iteration of technologies such as large models, artificial intelligence is accelerating from the stage of perception and understanding into a new phase of generative decision-making and autonomous execution. An agent, as an intelligent system with capabilities in autonomous perception, memory, decision-making, interaction, and execution, represents an important application form of next-generation AI. It is also a key vehicle for AI technology to empower diverse industries and underpin high-quality development of the intelligent economy. The seven national standards in the "Artificial Intelligence — Agent Interconnection" series released this time comprehensively cover core aspects including overall architecture, identity codes, identity management, agent description, agent discovery, agent interaction, and agent tool invocation. They systematically establish a closed-loop standards framework encompassing "identity identification—capability description—supply-demand discovery—collaborative interaction—tool invocation," effectively filling the standard gap in this field. With unified architecture and interaction rules established through these standards, enterprises can reuse standardized components, reduce customized development, and shorten time-to-market. At the same time, they lay an institutional foundation for cross-domain trustworthiness and secure interaction by establishing unified identity authentication and full traceability mechanisms. (CCTV News) The People's Bank of China and the General Administration of Customs have issued a notice to solicit public opinions on the "Administrative Measures for the Import and Export of Gold and Gold Products (Draft for Comments)." (From Wall Street CN APP) [Three Departments: Further Improve Work Related to Collection of Mineral Rights Transfer Proceeds] The Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Natural Resources, and State Taxation Administration have issued a notice on further improving the collection of mineral rights transfer proceeds, clarifying that late payment penalties for mineral rights transfer proceeds will no longer be collected starting August 1, 2026. If a mining rights holder fails to pay the mineral rights transfer proceeds in full and on time, a penalty of 0.2% per day will be charged from the date of default, with the total penalty not exceeding the principal amount owed. Penalties for mineral rights transfer proceeds will be recorded under the mineral rights transfer proceeds category and shared between central and local governments according to the same proportion as mineral rights transfer proceeds. Late payment penalties that have already accrued before the implementation of this notice shall continue to be paid in accordance with previous regulations, and penalty charges will not apply. US Dollar: The overnight US dollar index fell 0.1% last Friday, closing at 101.36. On a weekly basis, the dollar index recorded its second consecutive weekly gain, rising 0.6% for the week. US Treasury yields and the dollar edged lower as oil prices declined and the market reassessed the US interest rate outlook. The CME FedWatch Tool shows the probability of one rate hike this year remains high at 42%, while the chance of a second hike has dropped to 28% from 34% a week ago as inflation expectations cool. A Wall Street Journal survey indicates the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, set to be released at 10 a.m. US Eastern Time (10 p.m. Beijing Time), is expected to rise from 44.8 to 49. (Jinshi Data APP) Reuters Poll: 78 of 102 economists surveyed expect the Fed to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% in 2026, compared with 72 of 102 economists who held this view in the early June survey. Artem Sakhbiev, FX strategist at BCA Research, said in a report that the recent rebound in the US dollar appears somewhat overextended and lacks the support needed to break out of the trading range of the past year. The Fed revised its interest rate projections upward at last week's meeting and explicitly focused on inflation. This led to a significant rise in inflation-adjusted real yields and eased concerns about political pressure for rate cuts, thereby boosting the dollar. However, this move now appears largely exhausted. The Fed is likely to hold rates steady, and the spread between short- and long-term yields could widen. (Jinshi Data APP) According to Nick Timiraos, known as the "Fed mouthpiece," sources say the search for a new president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta has reached an impasse. The initial list of candidates failed to yield a final selection, forcing the bank to restart the selection process, which has now lasted seven months. On the surface, this was just a minor procedural hiccup. But at the same time, the independence of the US Fed is facing a severe test. Reserve Bank presidents are crucial to the Fed's independence: they participate in setting interest rates, and their appointment process is deliberately designed to avoid influence from Washington politics. (Jin10 Data App) Fed official Kashkari stated that signs of widespread inflation led him to expect one rate hike this year in the Fed economic forecasts released earlier this month. Rates are expected to remain unchanged in 2027. In a media interview on Friday, Kashkari said: "I am concerned about inflation, not just related to the Middle East situation, but signs of broader inflationary pressures in the economy." The Iran war pushed up oil prices, and prices rose across many categories. This has intensified concerns among some Fed officials that inflation is becoming more broad-based and persistent, potentially requiring stronger action from the central bank. A report released earlier this week showed the May PCE annual rate came in at 4.1%, the largest increase since April 2023. Prices have exceeded the Fed's 2% target for over five years. In the dot plot forecasts released by the Fed last week, half of the officials who submitted dot plot projections expected at least one rate hike this year. (Jin10 Data App) The US goods trade deficit widened to its highest level in over a year in May, as exports fell and imports rose. Data released by the Commerce Department on Friday showed the goods trade deficit expanded 27.4% from the previous month to $105.8 billion, compared to an expected deficit of $85 billion. US goods exports fell 5.4% in May, dragged down mainly by declines in multiple categories, including shipments of industrial supplies. This category covers crude oil and petroleum products. Over the same period, imports rose 3.6%. (From Wall Street CN APP) In other currency news: As London experiences record-breaking heat, Bank of England officials are starting to worry that weather could become the next shock driving up inflation, just as the previous supply shock is fading. Climate scientists increasingly expect a strong El Niño event to form later this year into 2027, disrupting global weather patterns. Now, economists are also concerned this could trigger a new round of supply shocks, push up food inflation, and once again frustrate global central banks' efforts to fight inflation. (From Wall Street CN APP) On the macro front: This week will see the release of data including the Eurozone June industrial sentiment index, Eurozone June economic sentiment index, US June Dallas Fed business activity index, Japan May unemployment rate, China June official manufacturing PMI, UK Q1 GDP annual rate final, UK Q1 current account, France June CPI monthly rate preliminary, Switzerland June KOF economic leading indicator, Germany June seasonally adjusted unemployment change, Germany June seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany June CPI monthly rate preliminary, Canada April GDP monthly rate, US April FHFA house price index monthly rate, US April S&P/CS 20-City non-seasonally adjusted house price index annual rate, US June Chicago PMI, US May JOLTS job openings, US June Conference Board consumer confidence index, China June RatingDog manufacturing PMI, France June manufacturing PMI final, Germany June manufacturing PMI final, Eurozone June manufacturing PMI final, UK June manufacturing PMI final, Eurozone June CPI annual rate preliminary, Eurozone June CPI monthly rate preliminary, US June Challenger job cuts, US June ADP employment change, US June S&P Global manufacturing PMI final, US June ISM manufacturing PMI, US May construction spending monthly rate, Switzerland June CPI monthly rate, Eurozone May unemployment rate, US June unemployment rate, US June seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls, US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 27, US June average hourly earnings annual rate, US June average hourly earnings monthly rate, US May factory orders monthly rate, China June RatingDog services PMI, France May industrial output monthly rate, France June services PMI final, Germany June services PMI final, Eurozone June services PMI final, UK June services PMI final, and other data. Additionally, this week, attention should be paid to: 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President Barkin delivering a speech; the ECB holding its Central Bank Forum in Sintra through July 1; the 2026 Beijing Space Computing Conference taking place from June 29 to 30; ECB President Lagarde speaking in Sintra; the Reserve Bank of Australia releasing the minutes of its June monetary policy meeting; the ECB holding its Central Bank Forum in Sintra; the US and Iran holding technical negotiations (to be confirmed); Fed Chairman Walsh, ECB President Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Bailey, and Bank of Canada Governor Macklem speaking at the ECB Forum; the ECB holding its Central Bank Forum in Sintra; ECB President Lagarde delivering a speech; Bank of England Governor Bailey speaking on the coordination of fiscal and monetary policy; and a new round of domestic refined oil product price adjustments opening in China. It is worth noting that on July 1, the Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Market was closed for the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Establishment Day, with both Northbound and Southbound trading shut. On July 3, the US-NYSE was closed for the US Independence Day holiday; trading in CME precious metals, energy, foreign exchange, US Treasury, and equity index futures contracts ended early at 01:00 Beijing time on the 4th due to the US Independence Day holiday; trading in ICE Brent crude oil futures contracts ended early at 01:30 Beijing time on the 4th due to the US Independence Day holiday. In crude oil: Both oil futures fell in overnight trading last Friday, with US oil dropping 2.34% and Brent oil dropping 2.52%. On a weekly basis, US oil futures recorded a three-week losing streak, falling 7.4% for the week; Brent oil futures also fell for a third straight week, dropping 8.06% for the week. Brent spot crude oil prices fell back to pre-war levels, and the near-month contracts exhibited a contango structure—where near-term prices are lower than those further out—for seven consecutive days, reflecting a temporary oversupply. Tariq Zahir, a managing member at Tyche Capital Advisors, indicated that oil prices had "dropped too fast, too furiously," the ceasefire agreement remained fragile, and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz was still fraught with variables, so fluctuations were expected to persist. Rich Privorotsky, head of Goldman Sachs' One-Delta business, pointed out that Iran had begun a show of force near the Strait of Hormuz, some cargo ships had altered their routes, and the inventory overhang in the Gulf region was gradually flowing into the market. He believed that while the probability of a significant near-term price rise in crude oil was limited, the basis for a further substantial drop from current prices was equally insufficient. (From Wallstreetcn APP) US natural gas drilling rig additions recorded the largest single-week increase in four years. Data from Baker Hughes showed that the number of active oil drilling rigs operated by US energy enterprises reached 440 last week, marking a two-week consecutive increase, up from 433 the previous week. Active natural gas drilling rigs rose to 573, recording the largest gain since June 2022, compared with the prior figure of 563. (From Wall Street Cn APP) A report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicated that US refining capacity decreased by 263,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, a decline of 1.43%. This was primarily driven by the planned conversion of a major refinery in Houston and the closure of a refinery in the Los Angeles area due to market dynamics, which is known for strict environmental regulations. Marathon Petroleum, headquartered in Findlay, Ohio, maintained its position as the largest US refiner with a total refining capacity of 2.986 million bpd, accounting for 16.4% of the nation’s total capacity. (From Wall Street Cn APP) Furthermore, Iraq’s Ministry of Oil stated that OPEC has begun to gradually restore Iraq’s pre-war production quota, a move which will strengthen Iraq’s output capabilities and support the recovery of the oil sector. A high-level consensus has been reached within OPEC, fully taking into account Iraq’s past special circumstances and current actual needs. (From Wall Street Cn APP) Barclays said it has lowered its Brent crude oil price forecasts, cutting the 2026 estimate from $100 per barrel to $96, and the 2027 estimate from $88 to $85, citing the recovery of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have rebounded substantially, reaching about 80% of pre-war levels. However, this normalization process remains incomplete. The bank noted that Iran’s assertion of control through fee impositions and coordination mechanisms has created frictions and may potentially delay a full recovery. A temporary deal reached last week aimed at ending the US-Israeli war against Iran has allowed traffic on the Strait of Hormuz shipping route to resume. (From Wall Street Cn APP) Recommended Reading:

Using the Energy Fuels-VAC merger as a lens, this article analyzes the U.S. playbook of acquiring de-risked, international rare earth assets. Despite sovereign backing creating a $110/kg price floor for non-Chinese supply, structural bottlenecks in heavy rare earth refining and limited market share (~15%) mean China’s dominance remains unshaken in the near term.

Taking Energy Fuels' $1.9 billion acquisition of Germany-based VAC as a starting point, this article systematically reviews the US's recent acquisition trajectory for mature international rare earth assets. From taking a controlling stake in the Serra Verde heavy rare earth mine in Brazil and acquiring the UK's LCM alloy plant, to securing capacity from Australia's Lynas, the US is leveraging state capital to bypass lengthy certification cycles through cross-border acquisitions, building a non-China "mining-refining-magnet" supply chain. The article notes that although the $110/kg government price anchor has rewritten project IRR models, Western magnet capacity accounts for only 15% of the global total, and the heavy rare earth closed loop cannot be verified until after 2027, making it difficult to shake China's dominance in the short term.