SMM May 15 News: Metals market: Overnight, domestic base metals fell nearly across the board. SHFE copper fell 0.35%. SHFE aluminum fell 0.7%, SHFE lead fell 0.54%. SHFE zinc rose 0.2%. SHFE tin fell 1.33%. SHFE nickel fell 1.06%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures fell 0.32%, and the most-traded casting aluminum futures fell 0.7%. Overnight, ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore fell 0.12%, rebar rose 0.34%. Stainless steel fell 0.8%, hot-rolled coil rose 0.2%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal fell 0.72%, coke edged down slightly. Overnight overseas metals showed mixed performance. LME copper fell 0.7%. LME aluminum rose 0.21%, LME lead rose 0.4%. LME zinc rose 0.99%, hitting an intraday high of $3,633.5/mt, the highest since June 2022. LME tin fell 2.89%. LME nickel fell 1.17%. Overnight precious metals : COMEX gold fell 1.09%, COMEX silver fell 6%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold futures fell 0.32%, and the most-traded SHFE silver futures fell 3.52%. As of 7:15 AM on May 15, overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [PBOC: Aggregate social financing in the first four months totaled 15.45 trillion yuan; new loans reached 8.59 trillion yuan; April M2 grew 8.6% YoY] PBOC data showed that, according to preliminary statistics, the cumulative increase in aggregate social financing in the first four months of 2026 was 15.45 trillion yuan, down 893 billion yuan YoY. Of this, RMB loans to the real economy increased by 8.5 trillion yuan (down 1.29 trillion yuan YoY); foreign currency loans to the real economy increased by 103.6 billion yuan in RMB equivalent (up 213.4 billion yuan YoY); entrusted loans decreased by 94.1 billion yuan (down an additional 99.4 billion yuan YoY); trust loans increased by 300 million yuan (down 45.1 billion yuan YoY); undiscounted bankers' acceptances increased by 51.3 billion yuan (down 199.2 billion yuan YoY); net corporate bond financing was 1.5 trillion yuan (up 739.3 billion yuan YoY); net government bond financing was 4.45 trillion yuan (down 399 billion yuan YoY); domestic equity financing by non-financial enterprises was 200.8 billion yuan (up 65.5 billion yuan YoY). In the first four months, RMB loans increased by 8.59 trillion yuan. At end-April, the outstanding balance of domestic and foreign currency loans was 284.29 trillion yuan, up 5.5% YoY. Month-end outstanding RMB loans stood at 280.5 trillion yuan, up 5.6% YoY. In the first four months, RMB loans increased by 8.59 trillion yuan. By sector, household loans decreased by 490.2 billion yuan, of which short-term loans decreased by 610.2 billion yuan and medium and long-term loans increased by 119.9 billion yuan; loans to enterprises and public institutions increased by 8.99 trillion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 3.67 trillion yuan, medium and long-term loans increased by 5.01 trillion yuan, and bill financing increased by 142.9 billion yuan; loans to non-bank financial institutions decreased by 193.5 billion yuan. At end-April, the outstanding balance of foreign currency loans was $55.15 billion, up 3.4% YoY. In the first four months, foreign currency loans increased by $6.5 billion. PBOC data showed that at end-April, broad money (M2) balance was 353.04 trillion yuan, up 8.6% YoY. Narrow money (M1) balance was 114.58 trillion yuan, up 5% YoY. Currency in circulation (M0) balance was 14.75 trillion yuan, up 12.2% YoY. Net cash injection in the first four months was 653 billion yuan. [PBOC: To conduct 300 billion yuan outright reverse repo operation on May 15 with a 6-month tenor] To maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, on May 15, 2026, the People's Bank of China will conduct a 300 billion yuan outright reverse repo operation through fixed-quantity, interest rate tender, and multiple-price winning method, with a tenor of 6 months (184 days), maturing on November 15, 2026 (postponed in case of holidays). US dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index rose 0.41% to 98.88. According to Wallstreetcn, US April retail sales posted the strongest gain in 8 months, confirming consumer resilience, but inflationary pressures continued to build. Combined with rising long-term Treasury yields, market expectations for a US Fed interest rate cut have largely faded. US Fed Governor Barr stated that easing liquidity rules to shrink the central bank's balance sheet is a bad idea that could undermine the safety of the financial system. "There has been a lot of discussion recently about shrinking the size of the Fed's balance sheet to reduce our 'footprint' in the financial system," Barr said in prepared remarks for a conference hosted by the NYU Money Marketeers. "I believe shrinking the balance sheet is the wrong objective, and many of the proposals put forward to achieve it would weaken bank resilience, impede the normal functioning of money markets, and ultimately threaten financial stability," Barr said. "Some proposals would actually increase the Fed's 'footprint' in financial markets." Barr noted that allowing banks to reduce their liquidity holdings as a means of shrinking Fed assets could increase the risk that these institutions would need to turn to Fed liquidity facilities when in distress. He said, "The size of the Fed's balance sheet is not the right measure of its influence in financial markets," and in a system where the Fed creates reserves "at no cost," the real focus should be on the effectiveness of the Fed's monetary policy implementation. (Jin10 Data) According to Reuters, Milan formally submitted his resignation to the US Fed on Thursday local time, setting his departure date on or shortly before the day Waller is sworn in. Waller is expected to be sworn in as Fed Chairman within the coming days. In his resignation letter, Milan continued to warn that interest rates may be too high. He wrote that broader economic trends such as slowing population growth and deregulation would reduce inflation on their own, giving the Fed room to ease policy. He also argued that technical challenges in measuring inflation may cause inflation statistics to overstate actual levels. (Jin10 Data) According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed holding rates unchanged through June is 96.8%, with a 3.2% probability of a cumulative 25 bps cut. The probability of holding rates unchanged through July is 93.8%, with a 3.1% probability of a cumulative 25 bps cut and a 3.1% probability of a cumulative 25 bps hike. Data: Today will see the release of the US May NY Fed Manufacturing Index, US April industrial production MoM, and China April total electricity consumption YoY, among other data. Also watch: 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Hammack delivers opening remarks at an online discussion on central bank independence; FOMC permanent voter and NY Fed President Williams participates in a discussion; US Fed Governor Barr speaks on the balance sheet; the National Energy Administration releases total electricity consumption data around the 15th of each month; Powell's term as Fed Chairman ends; US President Trump makes a state visit to China. Crude oil: Overnight, both oil futures rose, with WTI up 0.99% and Brent up 0.91%. Market concerns over supply disruptions amid the US-Iran conflict persisted, supporting oil prices. US Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that Iran's oil storage is full and Tehran will need to halt oil production. Following the US blockade on Iranian oil exports, the key question in this conflict is: how long can Iran store the oil it cannot export before running out of space. Some analysts believe Iran still has a few weeks of storage capacity, and Tehran has begun slowly cutting production to cope with the standoff. Bessent said in an interview on CNBC's "Squawk Box" that over the past three days, Iran has been unable to load tankers at its main oil export terminal, Kharg Island, as the US blockade prevented tankers from entering or leaving the Persian Gulf. In the first month of the US blockade, the US military forced 70 vessels allegedly heading to or from Iranian ports to change course. (Jin10 Data) According to Bloomberg ship-tracking data, four VLCCs loaded with crude oil have transited the Strait of Hormuz since May 10, with combined daily flows approaching 2 million barrels. However, this improvement was relatively limited. Freight analyst Georgios Sakellariou stated: according to Bloomberg ship-tracking data, four VLCCs loaded with crude oil have transited the Strait of Hormuz since May 10, with combined daily flows approaching 2 million barrels. However, this improvement was relatively limited. Goldman Sachs analyst Tallulah Adams noted that the oil market has entered a narrower trading range, with realized volatility over the past 5 days falling to the lowest level since the conflict began, and the market is largely in wait-and-see mode. Weak physical market signals suggest supply remains adequate for the May trading cycle, but Goldman Sachs also cautioned that the coming weeks will be critical as the summer peak demand season is about to arrive. (Wallstreetcn) Additionally, two industry sources told Reuters that a Gazprom natural gas processing plant in Russia's southern Astrakhan region suspended motor fuel production after a fire on May 13. The fire was caused by a drone strike. They said the plant suspended operations, including a stabilized condensate processing unit with an annual capacity of 3 million mt that produces gasoline and diesel. According to sources, restoring motor fuel production could take weeks to months. The second source said hydrogen sulfide treatment and sulfur recovery equipment were also damaged in the drone strike. Industry sources said the Astrakhan plant processed 1.8 million mt of stabilized natural gas condensate in 2024, producing 800,000 mt of gasoline, 600,000 mt of diesel, and 300,000 mt of fuel oil. (Jin10 Data)

[Macro Policy and Tug-of-War Between Sellers and Buyers: Aluminum Prices Move Sideways] The risk of supply disruptions to aluminum outside China has not yet subsided, and there remains a supply gap in ex-China aluminum, with the strong LME market transmitting to China and providing support for aluminum prices. However, the continuation of inventory buildup exceeding expectations in China will weigh on domestic aluminum prices. Meanwhile, tightened invoicing regulations may lead to structural tightness in spot cargo, and the weakening spot market further limits the upside room for domestic aluminum prices. Close attention should be paid to the potential turning point in China's social inventory, which could drive a rebound and rise in aluminum prices.

SMM May 11 News: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic market base metals mostly rose. SHFE copper was up 1.01%, SHFE aluminum up 0.86%, SHFE lead edged down slightly, SHFE zinc fell 0.6%, SHFE tin was up 0.38%, and SHFE nickel up 0.86%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures rose 1.09%, the most-traded alumina contract fell 0.81%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 3.1%, the most-traded silicon metal contract rose 1.66%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures fell 2.8%. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore was up 0.86%, rebar up 0.52%, hot-rolled coil up 0.46%, and stainless steel down 0.07%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 0.85%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 1.65%. Overseas market base metals, as of 11:46, LME metals were nearly all up. LME copper rose 0.59%, LME aluminum up 0.67%, LME zinc down 0.31%, LME lead edged up slightly, LME tin up 1.16%, and LME nickel up 1.29%. Precious metals, as of 11:46, COMEX gold fell 0.77% and COMEX silver rose 0.66%. Domestic market precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 0.96%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 0.68%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures rose 0.14%, and the most-traded palladium futures fell 0.62%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 5.07% to 2,474.5 points. As of 11:46 on May 11, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot and Fundamentals Lead: An SMM survey showed that in April, refined lead supply from secondary lead enterprises edged up MoM, mainly driven by production resumptions at previously idled enterprises and restocking of raw materials to boost output... Macro Front China: [NBS: April CPI Up 1.2% YoY, PPI Up 2.8% YoY, PPI Growth Expanded] NBS data showed that in April 2026, the national consumer price index rose 1.2% YoY. Among them, urban areas were up 1.2% and rural areas up 1.0%; food prices fell 1.6%, while non-food prices rose 1.8%; consumer goods prices rose 1.4%, and services prices rose 0.9%. On average from January to April, the national CPI was up 0.9% YoY. In April, the national CPI rose 0.3% MoM. Among them, urban areas were up 0.3% and rural areas up 0.1%; food prices fell 1.6%, while non-food prices rose 0.7%; consumer goods prices rose 0.1%, and services prices rose 0.5%. In April 2026, national industrial producer ex-factory prices rose 2.8% YoY and 1.7% MoM. Industrial producer purchase prices rose 3.5% YoY and 2.1% MoM. For the January–April average, industrial producer ex-factory prices were up 0.2% from the same period last year, and industrial producer purchase prices were up 0.5%. Dong Lijuan, Chief Statistician of the Urban Division of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), interpreted the April 2026 CPI and PPI data. The main characteristics of PPI MoM movements this month were as follows: First, international input factors drove up prices in China's petroleum-related industries. Rising international crude oil prices drove up prices in domestic petroleum-related industries. Specifically, prices in the petroleum and natural gas extraction industry rose 18.5% MoM, petroleum, coal, and other fuel processing industry prices rose 16.4%, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing prices rose 8.3%, chemical fiber manufacturing prices rose 5.6%, and rubber and plastics products industry prices rose 1.7%. Second, increased demand in some domestic industries drove prices higher. Rapid growth in computing power demand and accelerated electrification pushed optical fiber manufacturing prices up 22.5% MoM, external storage devices and components prices up 3.2%, and non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry prices up 0.2%. Restocking demand for thermal coal was released, combined with increased non-power coal demand from chemical and metallurgical industries, driving coal mining and washing industry prices up 1.9%. Continued advancement of manufacturing equipment upgrades drove increased steel demand, pushing ferrous metals smelting and rolling processing industry prices up 0.6%. Third, competition order in the Chinese market continued to improve, with prices in related industries rising or declines narrowing. Efforts to address "involution-style" competition continued to show results, with lithium-ion battery manufacturing prices up 1.6% MoM, new energy vehicle manufacturing prices down 0.1%, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. The PBOC conducted 500 million yuan in 7-day reverse repo operations today. As no reverse repos matured today, a net injection of 500 million yuan was achieved. US dollar: As of 11:46, the US dollar index was up 0.24% at 98.08. Data from the US Department of Labor showed that US April non-farm payrolls added 115,000 jobs, far exceeding expectations, thanks to strong corporate earnings and enterprises' effective response to supply chain disruptions triggered by the Iran war. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, in line with economists' expectations. From trade to immigration to tax policy, changes across various fronts posed challenges for enterprises, but most did not resort to large-scale layoffs. At the same time, enterprises appeared to take various intertwined headwinds in stride. Robust consumer demand meant that despite news of high-profile layoffs at well-known companies, low hiring was often accompanied by relatively low levels of layoffs. Data from the Department of Labor and human resources firm ADP earlier this week showed that the job market was stabilizing. Strong hiring in healthcare and social assistance also underpinned overall employment figures. US equities at or near record highs boosted confidence among corporate CEOs. The full impact of the conflict with Iran and the resulting rise in energy prices had yet to manifest in the labour market. Rising US oil prices had put greater pressure on lower-income households, which could dampen travel and services spending, in turn dragging on hiring in sectors such as retail and leisure. The impact of higher oil prices was particularly severe for airlines. However, these effects had yet to show up clearly in monthly employment data. According to the CME "Fed Watch": the probability of the US Fed holding rates unchanged through June was 93.8%, with a 6.2% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate cut. The probability of the US Fed holding rates unchanged through July was 88.8%, with a 10.8% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut and a 0.3% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut. (Jin10 Data) Goldman Sachs expects the US Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points each in December 2026 and March 2027, compared with its previous forecast of cuts in September and December this year. A CITIC Securities research report noted that US nonfarm payrolls in April 2026 came in above expectations, while the unemployment rate of 4.3% was in line with expectations. We believe April data better reflected the current state of the US job market than the previous two months: first, one-off factors diminished in April; second, the enterprise response rate was higher in April; and third, the Birth-death model impact was the smallest among the last four data releases. Demand side, the US labour market in April exhibited overall resilience with marginally increasing layoff pressure. Supply side, the labour force participation rate and employment-population ratio declined, but the prime-age (25–54) participation rate remained stable, suggesting it was not a large-scale exit of core labour force but rather aging and retirement factors dragging down the overall participation rate. Regarding US Fed monetary policy, we maintain our previous view: after Waller takes over, if the Iran situation eases and oil prices pull back, driving inflation expectations lower, the base case for H2 is one interest rate cut of 25 bps. Other currencies: Bearish yen positions decreased significantly after Japanese authorities intervened to support the yen, highlighting how official action curbed this crowded trade. According to data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), leveraged funds reduced their net short positions on the yen in the week ending May 5. Currently, their net short position in the Japanese yen stood at 61,340 contracts, valued at approximately $4.9 billion, hitting the lowest level in nearly a month. Meanwhile, asset management firms also cut 13,839 short contracts, bringing their open interest down to 10,653 contracts. "Given the intervention risk and strong official warnings, chasing yen shorts near the 160 level has become unattractive," said Stefan Rittner, Senior Portfolio Manager at Allianz Global Investors. He held a neutral stance on the USD/JPY exchange rate. However, he noted that "despite the yen's already cheap valuation, persistent structural headwinds limit the scope for a sustained rebound"; moreover, further intervention risks are expected to rise once the USD/JPY rate approaches its previous highs again. (Jin10 Data) On the macro front: Data to be released today include US April existing home sales annualized total and China's April M2 money supply year-on-year. In addition, attention should be paid to: US Treasury Secretary Bessent's visit to Japan, where he will meet with the Japanese Prime Minister, the central bank governor, and the Finance Minister. Crude oil: As of 11:46, oil prices in both markets surged significantly, with WTI up 4.65% and Brent up 4.17%. Renewed tensions between the US and Iran supported oil prices. According to Xinhua News Agency, US President Trump posted on social media on May 10, expressing dissatisfaction with Iran's response, calling it "completely unacceptable." This statement cast a shadow over the already fragile Middle East ceasefire situation. Oil prices jumped sharply after the news broke. (Wallstreetcn) Data from shipping intelligence firm Kpler showed that two more fully loaded crude oil tankers switched off their trackers while passing through the Strait of Hormuz last week to evade Iranian attacks. Data indicated that the very large crude carrier "Basrah Energy" loaded 2 million barrels of Upper Zakum crude oil from ADNOC's Zirku terminal on May 1 and passed through the Strait of Hormuz on May 6. The vessel discharged its cargo at the Fujairah tanker terminal on May 11. It remained unclear which company chartered the tanker owned and managed by shipping company Sinokor. ADNOC and its buyers had recently dispatched tankers through the Strait of Hormuz on multiple occasions to transport crude oil, in response to the issue of stranded oil in the Persian Gulf caused by Middle East conflicts. Another very large crude carrier, Kiara M, switched off its transponder and departed the Persian Gulf on Sunday, carrying 2 million barrels of Iraqi crude oil. The discharge destination of this San Marino-flagged tanker remained unclear. (Jin Shi Data) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

Driven by the Middle East conflict pushing up energy costs and inflation persistently exceeding expectations, Goldman Sachs postponed the timing of the US Fed's next two interest rate cuts by one quarter each, and market expectations for monetary policy easing cooled again.Goldman Sachs US economists, in a report dated May 8, pushed back their expectations for the US Fed's next two interest rate cuts to December 2026 and March 2027, respectively, each delayed by one quarter from previous forecasts. Goldman Sachs believes that the pass-through effects of energy costs will keep core PCE inflation close to 3% throughout the year, well above the US Fed's 2% policy target, making conditions for interest rate cuts difficult to materialize.

Gold has been pulled in two directions in recent weeks. On one side, rising oil prices and escalating geopolitical tensions have strengthened the metal’s safe-haven appeal.

SMM April 29: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic market base metals mostly rose, with SHFE copper down 0.29%. SHFE aluminum edged up. SHFE lead rose 0.18%, SHFE zinc edged down. SHFE tin rose 0.81%. SHFE nickel rose 1.37%, hitting an intraday high of 152,230 yuan/mt, the highest since January 26. Additionally, the most-traded casting aluminum futures were flat at 23,175 yuan/mt, and the most-traded alumina contract fell 0.45%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 0.6%. The most-traded silicon metal contract rose 1.57%. The most-traded polysilicon futures rose 1.08%. Ferrous metals all rose, with iron ore up 0.77%, rebar up 0.31%, hot-rolled coil up 0.3%, and stainless steel up 0.55%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 0.47%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.22%. Overseas market base metals, as of 11:40, LME metals rose across the board. LME copper rose 0.79%. LME aluminum rose 0.49%, LME lead rose 0.49%, LME zinc rose 0.61%. LME tin rose 1.14%. LME nickel rose 0.18%. Precious metals, as of 11:40, COMEX gold edged up 0.07%, COMEX silver rose 0.65%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 1.36%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 1.46%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 1.07%, and the most-traded palladium futures fell 0.29%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 1.13% to 2,252.9 points. As of 11:40 on April 29, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot and fundamentals Copper: Today in Guangdong, #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 320 yuan/mt, flat with the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 240 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 180 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 101,540 yuan/mt, down 780 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 101,440 yuan/mt, down 775 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory rose for two consecutive sessions, mainly due to weak downstream consumption... Macro front China: [31 World Firsts: China's Mineral Resource Inventory Published, with Continued Increase in Exploration Investment Planned for the 15th Five-Year Plan Period] On April 29, the Ministry of Natural Resources released China's latest mineral resource inventory. China ranked first in the world in reserves of 14 minerals, including rare earths, tungsten, tin, molybdenum, antimony, gallium, germanium, indium, fluorite, and graphite. In 2025, China ranked first in the world in the production of 17 minerals, including coal, vanadium, titanium, zinc, rare earths, tungsten, tin, molybdenum, antimony, gallium, indium, gold, and tellurium. Currently, China's mineral production and smelting processing scale ranks firmly first globally. In 2025, the national mining output value was approximately 32.7 trillion yuan, accounting for over 23% of GDP. Resource reserves grew significantly, laying a solid foundation for resource self-sufficiency and controllability. Xiong Zili, Director of the Geological Exploration Management Department of the Ministry of Natural Resources, stated that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, the state will continue to deeply implement a new round of strategic actions for mineral exploration breakthroughs. The Ministry of Natural Resources will further improve the coordinated system for exploration, production, supply, reserves, and sales of strategic mineral resources, and strengthen security risk monitoring and early warning for strategic mineral resources. In terms of key directions, efforts will focus on scarce strategic minerals such as copper, iron, lithium, cobalt, and nickel, while consolidating the resource position of advantageous minerals such as rare earths, tungsten, and tin. In terms of spatial layout, land-sea coordination will be strengthened, with active expansion of survey, exploration, and development space, and increased efforts in basic geological surveys. The goal is to submit a number of mineral sites ready for development by 2030 and form new capacity as soon as possible. The PBOC conducted 25.9 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations in the open market at an interest rate of 1.40%. Today, 6 billion yuan of reverse repos matured. US dollar: As of 11:40, the US dollar index rose 0.03% to 98.66. US Fed watchers did not expect significant changes to the Fed's statement, but they noted there could be some subtle adjustments. For example, officials might revise their description of the labour market to acknowledge that recent data suggested the labour market had stabilized despite less hiring activity. Some officials also wanted the Fed to make clear that the next policy move could be a rate hike—rather than an interest rate cut—as the Iran situation had intensified existing inflationary pressures. To signal this view, officials could slightly adjust the wording of "the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the benchmark rate." Deutsche Bank economists wrote in a report: "A hawkish statement might remove the word 'additional,' as it implies a dovish lean and effectively signals a continuation of a series of interest rate cuts." The US Fed made three interest rate cuts at year-end 2025. Roger Ferguson, former Vice Chairman of the US Fed and economist, stated, "In terms of the dual mandate, the Fed would say that the labour market is roughly in a stable state at present. Regarding the inflation mandate, (as inflation remains elevated at 3%), there is still much work to be done." He expected the US Fed to say: "We will stay put for now and see how all this plays out." Similarly, Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle expected the post-meeting statement to acknowledge improved labor market conditions and rising inflation data, but maintain existing policy guidance. We expect a majority will still support keeping rates unchanged, with only one dissent, same as in March. According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged in April was 100%. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate cut by June was 2.6%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 97.4%. (Jin10 Data) Data: Data to be released today include Australia's March non-seasonally adjusted CPI year-on-year, Switzerland's April ZEW investor confidence index, Eurozone April industrial confidence index, Eurozone April economic sentiment index, Germany's April preliminary CPI month-on-month, US March annualized housing starts, US March durable goods orders month-on-month, US March building permits, and Bank of Canada interest rate decision through April 29. Also noteworthy: Bank of Canada to release its rate decision and monetary policy report; US Senate Banking Committee to vote on advancing Waller's Fed Chairman nomination, with a full Senate confirmation vote to follow if passed; Bank of Canada Governor Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Rogers to hold a monetary policy press conference. Crude oil: As of 11:40, both benchmarks declined, with WTI down 0.77% and Brent down 0.47%. Both WTI and Brent continued to pull back in the short term, fully erasing gains since the news that Trump planned to extend the blockade on Iran. According to the Wall Street Journal, US officials said Trump had instructed aides to prepare for a prolonged blockade on Iran, a high-risk attempt aimed at striking Iran's fiscal revenue and forcing concessions on the nuclear issue. Officials said that in recent discussions, including a Monday White House Situation Room meeting, Trump decided to continue suppressing Iran's economy and oil exports by blocking shipping to and from Iranian ports. On April 28 local time, satellite imagery showed multiple oil tankers in waters near Iran's Chabahar Port, including 8 very large crude carriers and several small and medium-sized vessels, with a total capacity of approximately 14 million barrels of crude oil. Chabahar Port is located on the Gulf of Oman coast in southeastern Iran. Although the port is located outside the Persian Gulf, it is already close to the blockade line set by the US. Analysts noted that as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has nearly dropped to zero, rerouting some oil exports is one of the measures Iran has taken to minimize disruptions to its oil exports. (Jin10 Data) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►