04 July 2026, 10:49 UTC JPMorgan turned cautious on gold and cut its Q4 2026 forecast by roughly 25% to $4,500. The revised target drops from around $6,000, with gold seen averaging $4,300 in Q3 2026. JPMorgan kept its long-term bullish view, citing central bank buying and strong physical demand. JPMorgan just turned cautious on gold in the short term. The bank cut its Q4 2026 forecast by roughly 25% to $4,500 per ounce, down from around $6,000. The recalibration follows weaker demand from key buying sectors. This move signals fresh caution ahead, even as JPMorgan keeps its longer-term bullish thesis fully intact. JPMorgan Slashed Its Gold Forecast 25% A price forecast is an analyst’s projection of where an asset may trade over a defined future period. JPMorgan now projects an average gold price of $4,300 per ounce in the third quarter. Furthermore, it sees the metal rising to $4,500 in Q4. The cut is significant in scale. The bank previously targeted roughly $6,000 per ounce by the fourth quarter. As a result, the new $4,500 target represents a roughly 25% reduction from prior expectations for the same period. The recalibration stems from softer demand. Purchasing power has weakened among gold’s major demand centers. Moreover, the metal has become more sensitive to shifts in real interest rates, capping the near-term price ceiling. The bank described the situation as “range-bound”. As a result, traders should expect sideways price action before any second-half recovery takes hold. Other institutions remain more bullish. Goldman Sachs sees $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, driven by sovereign demand and emerging-market central bank diversification. Furthermore, UBS targets $5,200 over the next 12 months as markets reassess Fed policy and dollar pressure intensifies. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley also eyes $5,200 in H2 2026, but warns that gold needs stronger ETF inflows first. The precious metal is currently trading at $4,175, up 1.26% over the last 24 hours. However, it is now down 26% from its all-time high near $5,600 reached in January 2026, according to TradingView data. Why JPMorgan’s Long-Term Bullish View Holds Despite the cut, JPMorgan’s medium- to long-term view remains firmly positive. The bank pointed to two structural forces that could drive gold prices through 2027. Each factor supports demand well beyond the current short-term consolidation phase across global markets. First, central banks worldwide continue accumulating gold reserves at an increased pace. Furthermore, physical demand for the precious metal is expected to keep strengthening over the coming months. Both trends provide a durable floor under prices across the entire outlook. Second, institutional investors continue to allocate tangible portions of their portfolios to gold for hedging purposes. Moreover, that pattern shows no sign of reversing. As a result, JPMorgan expects gold to retain its role as both a safe-haven asset and an alternative reserve currency. The JPMorgan forecast also carries implications for crypto markets. Gold and Bitcoin have traded as competing macro hedges throughout 2025 and into 2026. As a result, a “range-bound” gold price could potentially shift some institutional capital toward the crypto market in the short term. However, the bank’s long-term bullish stance means gold will not lose its importance as a store of value any time soon. The near-term caution simply reflects a temporary pause rather than a structural break in the broader multi-year uptrend. Source： https://beincrypto.com/jpmorgan-changes-gold-price-outlook-q4-2026/

Published: Jul 03, 2026 - 6:00 AM (Kitco News) - Gold's recent correction has understandably raised questions about whether the precious metal's historic bull market is beginning to lose momentum. Yet, while investors remain fixated on Federal Reserve policy, interest rates, and the U.S. dollar, they may be overlooking the gold market's most important long-term driver: central banks. Research from major institutions all points to the same conclusion: the structural shift toward gold among the world's reserve managers remains firmly intact. This past week, the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) published its annual central bank survey , which found that reserve managers remain overwhelmingly constructive on gold, with many expecting prices to trade between $5,000 and $6,000 an ounce over the next year. More importantly, the survey reinforced that gold's appeal extends far beyond short-term price appreciation. Central banks continue to view bullion as an essential reserve asset that provides diversification, liquidity, and protection against an increasingly fragmented geopolitical landscape. The OMFIF survey comes just two weeks after the World Gold Council published its annual Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey, which highlighted the same trend. A record 45% of central banks said they expect to increase their own gold holdings over the next 12 months, while nearly 90% believe total global official gold reserves will continue to rise. Gold prices may have experienced a sharp correction from their January highs, but many experts believe this bull market is far from over. Goldman Sachs expects sovereign demand to remain one of the primary pillars supporting the market, reinforcing its bullish outlook. In its latest report, the bank forecast that gold could approach $4,900 an ounce next year. Unlike ETF investors or speculative traders, central banks are not attempting to time market swings. Their purchases are driven by strategic reserve management, efforts to diversify away from the U.S. dollar, and the growing importance of holding politically neutral assets. As long as central banks continue adding to their reserves at historically elevated levels, they will remain an important source of demand in a market where new mine supply grows only gradually. Gold has always been influenced by interest rates, inflation, and currency movements, and those factors will continue to drive short-term volatility. But this cycle has introduced a new dynamic. For the first time in decades, the market's dominant buyers are institutions making strategic decisions measured in decades rather than quarters. That may ultimately prove to be the strongest argument that gold's secular bull market is far from over. source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-07-02/central-banks-are-still-betting-gold

Jul 2, 2026 4:17 PM EDT Gold investors were bracing for more sluggishness. Following months of pressure, investors expected the next big call on the shiny yellow metal to be much more defensive, especially as rate-cut hopes faded and the dollar regained some bite. For context, gold was recently trading near the low $4,000s, with spot prices at around $4,064 per ounce at the time of writing. Gold price rebounded amid weak jobs data, lower oil prices, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh ’s latest comments. Speaking in Portugal, according to Investopedia , Warsh said inflation risks were diminishing somewhat. While it was far from a clear signal of a rate cut, the comments gave gold a short-term lift and injected life back into the debasement trade. Nevertheless, Goldman Sachs isn’t treating the recent pullback as the end of the gold trade. The bank’s latest message is much more measured but adds to the bull case for higher gold prices. Goldman was focusing on a deeper source of demand that does not move like a short-term ETF trade. Though gold has lost momentum, Goldman says the bigger force behind the rally remains intact. Wall Street price targets for gold prices Goldman Sachs : $4,900/oz by end-2026. Goldman’s leans on sovereign demand and emerging-market central bank diversification . JPMorgan : $6,000/oz by Q4 2026. JPMorgan sees gold pushing higher as central bank demand and macro uncertainty remain supportive. UBS : $5,200/oz over the next 12 months. UBS says gold can rebound as markets rethink Fed policy, dollar pressure, and central bank buying. Morgan Stanley : $5,200/oz in H2 2026. Morgan Stanley says gold needs stronger ETF inflows to make that target realistic. Bank of America : $4,800/oz by Q4 2026. BofA trimmed its near-term outlook as investor demand weakened and Fed headwinds grew. Sources: Reuters, Kitco News, Business Insider, Investing, JPMorgan Global Research, and Morgan Stanley/Bank of America notes cited by Kitco. What Goldman Sachs said about gold’s next move Goldman Sachs just drew a clear line between gold’s pullback and its long-term thesis. Samantha Dart, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, argued that gold’s sharp four-month decline doesn’t mean the bull case is wrapped up and that she still sees room for the metal to climb toward its $4,900/oz end-2026 forecast, according to Kitco News . Gold had been one of Wall Street ’s strongest momentum stories, stoked by inflation fears, central-bank buying, and geopolitical risk. The setup then took a major blow amid higher-rate expectations; a stronger dollar and softer ETF demand weighed on prices. Goldman’s point is that the primary structural buyer hasn’t disappeared. Dart acknowledged that a hawkish Fed has hurt the debasement trade and pressured ETF demand. But Goldman is still leaning on central-bank buying, especially emerging-market reserve diversification, anchoring its forecast. She wrote that “EM central bank diversification” remains the key driver, with the post-2022 freezing of Russia’s reserves influencing how some central banks think about gold. The World Gold Council data supports that argument. The 2026 Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey found that 89% of respondents expect global central bank gold reserves to rise over the next 12 months, while a record 45% expect their own institutions to increase their holdings. It’s important to note that in May, according to Yahoo Finance , Goldman revised their central-bank gold-demand model after finding official trade data was missing some sovereign buying. Consequently, its 12-month purchase forecast jumped to nearly 50 tonnes per month from 29 tonnes per month, and the bank now sees roughly 60 tonnes per month through 2026. Goldman said UK trade data understated London vault outflows since August 2025, while geopolitical uncertainty and diversification demand kept underlying interest strong. The bank had slashed its $5,400/oz year-end 2026 target by $500 to $4,900 in June, citing the reality of a hawkish Fed. What has to happen for gold to reach $4,900 For gold to reach Goldman’s $4,900/oz target, the market needs a lot more than sovereign buying. It needs pressure from rates, the dollar, and investor flows to ease simultaneously. The first gate is U.S. labor data. Reuters reported June payrolls rose just 57,000, well below the 110,000 economists expected, while May was revised down to 129,000 from 172,000. That sort of slowdown could help gold if it reduces market confidence that the Fed has to stay hawkish. The second aspect to consider is policy language. According to MoneyControl , Fed Chair Kevin Warsh helped gold rebound by saying inflation risks had eased, but he also reaffirmed the Fed’s 2% target and warned against assuming looser policy. That means gold needs cooler inflation and softer jobs data to become a trend rather than a one-day reaction. The third point to consider is the return of private money. The World Gold Council said global gold ETF flows slowed to a “trickle” in May, with ETF assets down 2% month over month to $604 billion. Without stronger ETF demand, gold may recover, but the move toward $4,900 becomes harder to sustain. source： https://www.thestreet.com/investing/goldman-sachs-delivers-honest-verdict-on-golds-selloff

Published：June 25, 2026 According to experts at Bank of America (BofA), the recent pullback in the gold market is less a cause for concern and more of a strategic buying opportunity. Although the changed macroeconomic environment is forcing analysts to postpone their extremely bullish $6,000 price target until spring 2027 for the time being, they say it is precisely this correction that now opens up lucrative prospects. The long-term fundamental setup has remained completely intact—and massive valuation discounts have formed, particularly in mining stocks, according to the analysts. Macro Weakness as a Strategic Window of Opportunity The fact that the price of gold has recently slipped below the key $4,000 mark is primarily due to short-term interest rate fears. The geopolitical conflict between the U.S. and Iran, as well as the resulting global energy crisis, are forcing central banks to consider interest rate hikes instead of the hoped-for cuts. According to the CME FedWatch Tool , the market has almost fully priced in an interest rate hike for December. For strategic investors, however, this very interest-rate-driven period of weakness could open up an attractive window of opportunity. According to major investment banks such as BofA, UBS, and Goldman Sachs, the structural drivers of the gold price remain completely unaffected by the current interest rate debate: the spiraling U.S. budget deficits and the unstoppable trend toward de-dollarization are providing massive support to the market. A recent survey shows just how much potential still exists on the buying side: Nearly 75 percent of central banks want to reduce their dollar holdings, which is likely to inevitably lead to further gold purchases by central banks. At the same time, retail investors are significantly underinvested; gold investments currently account for only about 5.5 percent of global portfolios. Gold Mining Stocks: The Lever of the Current Correction BofA identifies the greatest opportunity in the current market environment in the gold mining stock sector. The correction in the spot market has led to discrepancies here that offer investors an asymmetric risk-reward ratio. A price-to-net asset value model from BofA shows: On average, the producers under observation are pricing in a gold price of just $3,354 per ounce. This means the sector is still trading at a massive 19 percent discount to the already-corrected spot price. This undervaluation is widespread across the entire industry, but the broad diversification also offers scope for targeted stock picking. While Wheaton Precious Metals (NYSE: WPM) has an implied gold price of $4,395 in BofA’s calculation, Franco-Nevada (NYSE: FNV) sits at the lower end of the valuation range with an extremely conservative $2,416. Bank of America’s conclusion: Investors who can withstand short-term interest rate volatility will currently find rare entry points in a structurally supported market. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-sell-off-opens-up-new-opportunities-especially-for-mining-stocks

SMM July 2: Overnight, the LME lead 3M contract opened at $1,870/mt. In early trading, prices repeatedly drifted lower, dipping to an intraday low of $1,853/mt. Subsequently, bearish selling pressure eased somewhat, and prices consolidated and rebounded. During the latter half of the evening session, the uptrend accelerated, and prices gradually rebounded, reaching a high of $1,881.5/mt. Near the close, prices pulled back under slight pressure and finally settled at $1,866.5/mt, forming a candlestick with a long lower shadow, down $5.5/mt, or 0.29%. Overnight, the SHFE lead 2608 contract opened at 15,895 yuan/mt. After a brief surge to 15,930 yuan/mt, bulls ran out of steam, and bears entered to press prices into a sustained retreat, touching a low of 15,795 yuan/mt. Finding slight support from small buy orders at the low, it rebounded modestly, currently trading at 15,810 yuan/mt, down 65 yuan/mt, or 0.41%. Trading volume expanded, and open interest increased slightly by 1,263 lots. The contract retreated after a rapid rise and exhibited overall weakness. LME lead inventories are high, Goldman Sachs keeps adding to bearish positions, and inflows of low-grade lead imports are dragging on SHFE lead. On the supply side, lead concentrates are in short supply, and TCs continue to fall in July; primary lead smelters that underwent maintenance will resume production in July and are expected to increase output by 20,000 mt. Secondary lead raw material supply is tight, scrap battery prices have fallen, and production resumption plans are highly dependent on lead prices. In July, the battery sector enters the off-season, with downstream users only making small, low-price trial purchases and no concentrated restocking. Lead prices are in the doldrums in the near term; they will only stop falling once downstream users make concentrated purchases and secondary lead production cuts materialize.

Futures: The overnight LME lead 3M contract opened at $1,870/mt, then drifted lower in the initial session, dipping to $1,853/mt during the day before bearish pressure eased and futures rebounded. In the latter part of the evening session, the rally accelerated, with prices gradually climbing to a high of $1,881.5/mt. Towards the close, futures pulled back under modest pressure to settle at $1,866.5/mt, forming a long lower shadow candlestick and losing $5.5/mt, a decline of 0.29%. The overnight SHFE lead 2608 contract opened at 15,895 yuan/mt. After a brief early spike to 15,930 yuan/mt, bulls lost momentum as bears entered to push prices lower, with the contract dropping to a low of 15,795 yuan/mt. Gaining some support from light buying at the lows, prices rebounded slightly and are now trading near 15,810 yuan/mt, down 65 yuan/mt, a decline of 0.41%. Trading volume expanded and open interest edged up by 1,263 lots, with the contract retreating after a rapid rise and showing overall weakness. On the macro front: Fed Chairman Warsh: Inflation expectations and inflation risks have both diminished in recent weeks. The US ADP employment change for June increased by less than expected. Warsh reportedly appointed a Bessent aide as a Fed advisor. Meta is reportedly considering selling surplus AI computing power. Wang Yi held a telephone call with US Secretary of State Rubio. An agent confirmed that MLCC giant Yageo raised prices. Spot Fundamentals: SHFE lead has recently suffered successive breakdowns, and losses widened again today, with suppliers holding prices firm on their cargoes—lead ingot cargoes in the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai regions were quoted at premiums. Meanwhile, the discount on EXW primary lead smelter cargoes narrowed. In major producing regions, quotations were near parity with the SMM #1 lead average price. For secondary lead, smelter losses deepened as lead prices fell, and some enterprises signaled potential production cuts or suspensions. Market quotes were scarce, with a few secondary refined lead offers at premiums of 0–75 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. As the semi-annual liquidity squeeze eased in July, large downstream enterprises resumed normal procurement and showed marginally higher inquiry interest. However, given the sharp decline in lead prices, most downstream enterprises remained cautious, leaving market trading volumes subdued. Inventories: As of July 1, LME lead inventory decreased by 1,900 mt to 301,775 mt. As of June 29, SMM data showed total social inventory of lead ingots across five major domestic regions climbed to 71,200 mt, reaching a stage high since June, with visible inventory buildup pressure remaining pronounced. Lead Price Outlook Today: LME lead inventory remains elevated, while Goldman Sachs continues to add short positions, and inflows of low-grade lead imports are weighing on SHFE lead. Supply side, lead concentrate availability is tight, with July TCs extending their decline; primary lead smelters resuming production after maintenance are expected to add 20,000 mt of output in July. Secondary lead raw material supply is tight, scrap battery prices fall, and production resumption plans are highly dependent on lead prices. In July, batteries enter the consumption off-season, with downstream only making small tentative purchases at low prices, and there is no concentrated restocking. Lead prices are in the doldrums in the short term, and a stop in their decline will require downstream concentrated purchasing and the implementation of secondary lead production cuts.