Curated by Copilot Mid-year price outlook: WGC projects gold to hover near $4,100/oz in H2 2026, with upside if macro or geopolitical risks worsen. Correction from record: Prices fell over 25% from January’s $5,600 peak due to a strong dollar, Fed hike fears, and easing Iran tensions. Supportive demand factors: Central bank purchases and long-term investor participation may limit downside and sustain gold's role as a strategic asset. WGC forecasts gold stability with potential for sharp upside The World Gold Council’s mid-year outlook projects gold trading within 5% of $4,100/oz in H2 2026 under current macro conditions. Scenario analysis suggests a climb toward $4,500 is possible, and only a strong, clear catalyst could push prices sustainably to $5,000. Key upside drivers include worsening economic or geopolitical conditions, a dovish turn in Fed policy, and increased long-term investor participation. Newsable Asianet News + 1 From January's record high to mid-year correction Gold has dropped more than 25% from its January 2026 record of $5,602, with London spot prices down over 33% from their peak. The reversal followed a strong US dollar, rising bond yields, and expectations of prolonged higher interest rates, alongside reduced safe-haven demand after US-Iran ceasefire developments. Analysts view the pullback as a corrective consolidation rather than a structural bear market, with technical support seen near $3,900 and $3,600. The Financial Express + 1 At current levels, the headwinds and tailwinds are unusually balanced. Every major gold bull run has seen a 30–40% correction before the next leg higher, and the current decline from January’s peak sits within that range. Kaynat Chainwala,AVP Commodity Research, Kotak Securities The Financial Express Gold rallies on softer U.S. labour data Weaker-than-expected US jobs growth in June reduced market bets on a September Fed rate hike, helping gold secure its first weekly gain in five weeks. The softer labour data also pressured the US dollar, making gold more affordable for buyers using other currencies. Central banks added 41 tonnes to reserves in May, reinforcing long-term demand support despite recent volatility. The Economic Times + 2 Why the forecast matters for investors now For investors, the WGC’s range-bound outlook suggests patience and phased accumulation strategies amid uncertainty over Fed policy and dollar strength. Historical patterns show that major gold bull runs often see 30–40% corrections before resuming upward, aligning with the current decline. In India, domestic prices remain supported by rupee weakness and higher import duties, cushioning global downside and offering relative stability. The Financial Express + 2 Source： https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/insight/wgc-sees-gold-steady-near-4-100-in-h2-upside-if-risks-rise

Hong Kong is further solidifying its position as a major Asian bullion trading hub, with several banks reportedly importing large gold bars ahead of the planned launch of a new central gold clearing system in July. At least four of the 11 banks participating in the new mechanism have asked traders to move 400-ounce gold bars into the city, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the matter. The bars meet the London Good Delivery standard, the global benchmark for wholesale physical gold trading. The move suggests that banks are building up physical inventories to support delivery once the clearing system begins operating. The 400-ounce gold bar is the standard format used in London, the world’s largest bullion trading hub. These bars are commonly traded among banks, sovereign entities, and large institutional players. In Asia, however, gold trading is more commonly conducted in smaller kilogram bars, or kilobars. The decision to bring in 400-ounce bars therefore reflects Hong Kong’s intention to align its new clearing system with international bullion market practices, at least at launch. According to people familiar with the preparations, banks need to hold sufficient gold inventories in Hong Kong to facilitate physical delivery when clearing begins. The Role of the New Clearing Company The Hong Kong Precious Metals Central Clearing Company Limited is spearheading the development of this upcoming mechanism. Its board comprises 11 banks, including six international lenders, as well as other industry participants. Some of these lenders are expected to act as clearing banks when the system launches, while others may need more time to build the necessary bullion trading and settlement capabilities. Hong Kong’s Financial Services and Treasury Bureau said the clearing company has been working closely with the market to formulate the framework and rules for the system. Preparatory work has entered its final stage, according to the bureau. Hong Kong’s planned gold clearing system is expected to closely resemble key parts of London’s bullion market infrastructure. One important feature is the use of unallocated accounts. These accounts allow market participants to trade gold without assigning specific physical bars to each transaction. This structure helps improve liquidity and allows for faster, larger-scale settlement. At launch, Hong Kong plans to use the London Good Delivery standard. Longer-term arrangements, including whether the system will expand to other bar formats or delivery standards, are still to be determined. Competition With Singapore Hong Kong’s launch comes as competition intensifies among Asian financial centers seeking a larger role in the global gold market. Singapore has also announced plans to launch its gold clearing mechanism by the end of the year. Its system is expected to align with the London Good Delivery framework for large bars while also supporting delivery and settlement standards for kilobars used by major exchanges in Chicago and Shanghai. By moving first, Hong Kong could gain an advantage in attracting banks, trading houses, and institutional investors seeking more options for bullion trading and settlement in Asia. Both Hong Kong and Singapore are trying to capitalize on strong demand for gold across Asia. Many investors continue to view the precious metal as a long-term store of wealth and a hedge against uncertainty. Gold prices reached record highs earlier this year before retreating as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, inflation concerns, and expectations of higher interest rates weighed on the market. Despite the pullback, demand for gold infrastructure in Asia remains significant, particularly as investors and financial institutions seek alternatives to traditional Western trading centers. Conclusion The reported import of London-standard 400-ounce gold bars marks a practical step in Hong Kong’s effort to build a deeper and more liquid bullion market. If the clearing system launches as planned in July, it could give Hong Kong a stronger role in regional gold trading by offering market participants a local platform for settlement, delivery, and liquidity. For now, the inventory buildup by participating banks signals that preparations are entering their final stage and that Hong Kong is positioning itself as a more important bridge between Asia’s gold demand and the global bullion market. source： https://www.phoenixrefining.com/blog/hong-kong-banks-build-gold-inventories-ahead-of-new-bullion-clearing-system-launch

[SMM Precious Metal Express] Singapore Exchange announced it will establish an OTC gold clearing system and plans to launch central bank vault custody services by October, accelerating global gold market infrastructure development. This move is expected to enhance Singapore's position as an international gold trading hub, providing more comprehensive clearing and custody infrastructure for the precious metals market.

Steep price reversal: Silver plunged nearly 11% and gold turned volatile after India hiked import duties to 15%, reversing initial post-hike gains. Policy-driven impact: The government raised duties to curb imports, protect forex reserves, and support the rupee amid the West Asia crisis. Market outlook: Higher tariffs may hurt demand, slow industrial imports, and prompt smuggling, while global inflation and dollar strength keep pressure on bullion. Immediate market reaction to duty hike The import duty increase from 6% to 15% on gold and silver triggered a dramatic reversal in silver prices, with MCX silver plunging nearly 11% or ₹32,624 per kilogram in just two sessions. Gold prices also turned volatile, with spot gold trading around 4% below its recent peak as inflation data and a stronger US dollar sapped momentum. The initial rally from higher landed costs was quickly erased as traders booked profits and demand weakened at elevated prices. Economic and policy rationale behind the hike The Finance Ministry's move to restore the earlier higher duty structure aims to curb non-essential imports, safeguard foreign exchange reserves, and support macroeconomic stability amid the West Asia crisis. Officials highlighted the need to prioritise forex for essential imports like crude oil and fertilisers, noting the rupee’s record low this year. The hike follows Prime Minister Modi’s call for citizens to avoid non-essential gold purchases, reversing 2024’s duty cuts intended to curb smuggling and aid the jewellery sector. Live Mint + 4 "The increase in customs duty on imports of gold, and precious metals announced by the government is aimed at safeguarding macroeconomic stability and conserving foreign exchange reserves. The measures have been taken also to moderate non-essential imports during a period of heightened global uncertainty arising from the ongoing West Asia crisis." Fortune India Why volatility matters for India’s bullion market India, the world’s largest silver importer and second-largest gold consumer, faces potential demand destruction as higher tariffs lift local prices. Silver’s significant industrial demand—from solar panels to EVs—means it is trading more like an industrial commodity, making it sensitive to growth concerns from elevated oil prices. Analysts warn that reduced official imports could revive smuggling and dampen both jewellery and industrial demand, especially if geopolitical tensions keep inflation risks high. The Economic Times + 4 Short- and long-term outlook In the short term, bullion prices may remain range-bound as profit booking offsets structural support from central bank purchases and ETF inflows. Over the longer term, silver retains strong global demand drivers from AI infrastructure, green energy, and electronics, though a weaker economic outlook could limit gains. Policymakers face the challenge of balancing macroeconomic stability with potential social and market disruptions from sharp tax interventions. The Economic Times + 4 Source： https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/insight/gold-and-silver-prices-tumble-after-steep-import-duty-hike

May 8, 2026 Paul Chan, financial secretary of the Hong Kong Government, said Hong Kong will build a global commodities and gold trading hub, with rising Asian demand, and reshaped global trade and supply chains providing the backdrop. Speaking at the London Metal Exchange (LME) Asia Metals Seminar 2026, Chan said that Hong Kong has exceptional institutional strengths and deep capabilities in financial and professional services. It maintains full alignment with international standards, the common law system, and independent dispute resolution mechanisms, and offers a full range of services, from trade finance and marine insurance to derivatives and risk management tools. Chan said that a strategic committee on commodities, chaired by him, is developing a long-term strategy covering physical trade, financial transactions, logistics, and connectivity with the mainland, adopting a whole-of-ecosystem approach. Chan noted that the HKSAR government and the International Organization for Mediation (IOMed) are exploring the feasibility of establishing a special panel of mediators for commodities market disputes under the IOMed. This will provide a neutral, expert-led mediation mechanism for disputes arising across the commodities value chain, facilitating cross-border transactions, and strengthening market confidence among global market participants, Chan added. Bonnie Chan, chief executive officer of the Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited, said at the meeting that both Hong Kong’s capital market and the London Metal Exchange’s non-ferrous metals market have performed strongly. One important reason is the prevailing geopolitical uncertainty, which has prompted global investors to seek diversified asset allocation, thereby channeling funds into Asia and the Hong Kong market, a region with vast growth potential. Source: https://www.businesstoday.com.my/2026/05/08/hong-kong-aims-to-build-global-commodities-and-gold-hub-amid-rising-asian-demand/

Vietnam is moving toward establishing a national gold trading platform, transitioning from traditional gold shops to a centralized, digital, account-based system. The initiative aims to mobilize idle gold resources, improve market transparency, and reduce pressure on foreign exchange management. The Prime Minister has requested relevant ministries and agencies to urgently develop the exchange and target its operation before February 10, 2026; however, the project is still under review.