June 22, 2026 The price of gold is under noticeable pressure following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s most recent interest rate meeting. Although the Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a range of 3.50 to 3.75 percent, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh signaled a possible rate hike by the end of the year. This hawkish stance and the clear focus on price stability are driving bond yields higher, which increases the opportunity cost of the interest-free precious metal. As a result, market expectations have grown that the key support level of $4,000 per ounce will be tested in the near future. Weak Gold Price: Société Générale Makes Massive Increase While many market participants are reacting nervously to this development, Société Générale views the current pullback as an attractive buying opportunity. The major French bank is significantly increasing the gold allocation in its multi-asset portfolio for the third quarter from 7 to 10 percent. Accompanied by a broader increase in industrial metals and energy, the bank’s total commodity exposure climbs to a historic record of 20 percent. The strategists are already forecasting a noticeable recovery for the fourth quarter and expect the precious metal to reach the $5,000 mark by the second quarter of 2027. Why Structural Risks Support the Gold Price in the Long Term The bank’s confidence stems primarily from doubts about the continued stringency of U.S. monetary policy . The experts assume that the Fed will ultimately not implement the interest rate hikes it has signaled. Instead, the central bank could adapt to an environment of higher growth and persistent inflation. However, should central banks actually fall behind in the fight against inflation, a robust hedge against inflation—such as gold—will become indispensable. Furthermore, analysts note that international central banks are likely to continue acting as active buyers in the wake of global de-dollarization, offsetting any potential reluctance on the part of private investors. In light of spiraling government debt and increasing geopolitical fragmentation, Société Générale is fully committed to real assets. Consequently, the bank is no longer holding any liquidity in the current quarter but is instead investing more heavily in stocks and inflation-protected bonds in parallel with its gold buildup. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/socgen-goes-all-in-gold-back-at-usd5-000-by-the-end-of-the-year

Published: Jun 20, 2026 - 1:08 AM (Kitco News) - Gold investors shouldn't assume that a more inflation-focused Federal Reserve will derail the precious metal's long-term bull market, according to Axel Merk, founder and CEO of Merk Investments. While newly appointed Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh has signaled a more hawkish approach to monetary policy, Merk said that any near-term headwinds for gold could ultimately strengthen the market's longer-term foundations by reducing policy-driven uncertainty and shifting investor attention back to America's deteriorating fiscal position. In his first Federal Reserve press conference on Wednesday, Warsh made fighting inflation a central pillar of his leadership, emphasizing the importance of price stability. The market interpreted his comments as hawkish, with traders pushing expectations for future rate increases higher. Yet Merk said that investors should not automatically view a hawkish Fed as bearish for gold. "Everything else equal, Kevin Warsh is a headwind to the price of gold," Merk said. "But I actually think it's going to reduce volatility, which should be seen as a positive." According to Merk, one of Warsh's most important reforms is his effort to reduce the Fed's reliance on forward guidance and allow financial markets to play a greater role in signaling economic conditions. He said years of excessive communication and policy signaling have distorted markets and amplified volatility. "The Fed has always done what they had to do, but often with huge delays and much more damage," he said. "Just avoiding the big mistakes reduces volatility." Along with creating unnecessary market volatility, Merk also pointed out that the Federal Reserve’s economic projections and dot plot have never been accurate forecasting tools. He added that, for gold investors, less monetary policy uncertainty could have an unexpected benefit. Instead of obsessing over every Fed statement, dot plot projection, or interest-rate forecast, investors may begin focusing on structural issues that remain firmly supportive of gold, particularly the United States' growing debt burden. "For the gold bugs, for better or worse, we've got unsustainable deficits," Merk said. "The market should be focused more on the fiscal side." The comments come as many analysts continue to debate whether higher interest rates and elevated bond yields represent a significant obstacle for gold prices. Conventional wisdom suggests that rising yields increase the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset such as gold. However, Merk challenged the idea that opportunity costs should dictate an investor's decision to own precious metals. He noted that gold serves multiple functions within a portfolio, including preserving purchasing power during periods of monetary instability and fiscal deterioration. "I own gold for a variety of reasons," he said. "It's about preservation of purchasing power." Merk added that even if Warsh succeeds in restoring credibility to monetary policy and making progress against inflation, the process will take years. He pointed out that former Federal Reserve Chair Paul Volcker, widely credited with breaking the back of inflation in the early 1980s, did not immediately return inflation to desired levels. "Keep in mind, Paul Volcker didn't get inflation down to two percent," Merk said, noting that meaningful progress only emerged late in Volcker's tenure and into the early Greenspan years. Beyond Fed policy, Merk noted that some of the recent pressure on gold has stemmed from geopolitical developments, particularly the market's reaction to tensions involving Iran and their impact on oil prices, inflation expectations, and real interest rates. However, he expects those relationships to normalize over time. "My guess is that correlation is going to break down," he said, referring to the recent link between gold and oil prices. "I think that's going to be a big positive for gold." Ultimately, Merk said investors should avoid reducing the case for investing in gold to a simple debate over interest rates. He explained that a more disciplined and inflation-focused Federal Reserve may remove one source of uncertainty from the market, but it does little to address the longer-term challenges posed by persistent budget deficits, rising government debt, and ongoing geopolitical risks. Those factors, he argued, remain powerful reasons for investors to maintain exposure to gold regardless of the Fed's policy path. Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-06-19/golds-bull-market-remains-intact-even-hawkish-fed-says-axel-merk

Published: Jun 19, 2026 - 11:15 PM (Kitco News) - The Federal Reserve’s new tightening bias continues to take its toll on the gold market, with a growing number of analysts expecting prices to retest support near $4,000 an ounce. However, one bank has a simple suggestion for investors: “buy the dip.” Heading into the third quarter, market strategists at Société Générale updated their Multi-Asset Portfolio and recommended that investors remain long equities and commodities, as they expect central banks to remain behind the inflation curve. They said that, in this environment, investors need inflation protection. “We return to a full weighting in gold, taking advantage of the recent drawdown. Looking ahead, gold volatility may decline if retail participation—particularly through ETFs—eases off, while central banks are likely to remain active buyers, particularly as part of their ongoing de-dollarisation drive and as institutions diversify further away from equities and bonds,” the analysts said. For the third quarter, the French bank has a 10% allocation to gold, up from 7% in the second quarter. At the same time, SocGen is increasing its broader commodity exposure to 10% from 8%. “Electrification, AI, and sovereignty trends support the BCOM Index, with a bias toward industrial metals and energy,” the analysts said. The bank said its total 20% commodity exposure is the largest on record. Looking at the gold market, despite the current selling pressure, SocGen sees gold prices recovering in the fourth quarter of this year and climbing back to $5,000 an ounce by the second quarter of 2027, with the potential to reach new record highs in the third quarter of next year. The gold market has seen renewed selling pressure this week after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged in a range between 3.50% and 3.75%. However, in its updated economic projections, the central bank signaled support for a potential rate hike by the end of the year. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh confirmed the central bank’s hawkish bias, emphasizing its focus on price stability. However, the analysts at SocGen are not convinced that the Fed will actually pull the trigger on a rate hike. “Policymakers have effectively adjusted to a new equilibrium featuring higher growth alongside a higher inflation risk. This shift is reinforced by the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will move behind the curve, refraining from raising rates by year-end and even cutting next year. This implies inflation protection is more important than ever,” the analysts said. Despite potential downside risks to gold, SocGen said that the core pillars of its bull case—persistent currency erosion, worsening fiscal policy, and fracturing geopolitics—remain unchanged. Along with their increased commodity exposure, the analysts are also increasing their equity holdings to 55% of the portfolio, up from 50% in the second quarter. The bank is also increasing its exposure to inflation-protected securities, with a focus on U.S. and eurozone bonds. SocGen is also increasing its exposure to high-yield corporate debt. The bank said it will hold no cash in the third quarter. Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-06-19/gold-prices-are-down-socgen-buying-dip

Published: Jun 20, 2026 - 5:42 AM (Kitco News) - Gold prices have tumbled after Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh delivered what many investors interpreted as a hawkish debut, but at least one market strategist argues the precious metal's longer-term outlook remains intact. In commentary following Warsh's first press conference as Fed chair, Rebecca Ivaldi, Market Strategist at FCT Capital Partners and former Lehman Brothers analyst, said markets may be overestimating the central bank's willingness to keep monetary policy restrictive and underestimating the structural forces supporting gold demand. The precious metal came under pressure after Warsh repeatedly emphasized the Fed's commitment to restoring price stability. During the press conference, Warsh described inflation as a burden on American households and declared that the Federal Open Market Committee was "unambiguous and unanimous" in its determination to restore price stability. However, Ivaldi argues that beneath the hawkish rhetoric were several signals suggesting a less restrictive policy path than markets initially assumed. "The knee-jerk algorithmic reaction to the press conference was exactly what we saw in January right after the news broke that Warsh had been picked -- Hawk in the Fed equals Gold Down," she wrote. "But this short-term speculative reaction is almost entirely irrelevant in my view." One of the key points highlighted by Ivaldi was Warsh's discussion of housing markets. During the press conference, the Fed chair acknowledged that monetary policy appeared "somewhat restrictive" in housing, while describing the broader impact of policy across the economy as "uneven." Ivaldi interpreted those comments as evidence that Warsh may be more concerned about overly restrictive borrowing costs than his public messaging suggests. She also pointed to Warsh's skepticism toward traditional inflation measures and his decision to launch a review of the Fed's data-gathering framework. During the press conference, Warsh announced a task force to examine new data sources and improve the quality and timeliness of economic information available to policymakers. He argued that many official statistics rely on outdated survey methods and that policymakers need more real-time information about economic conditions. According to Ivaldi, that effort suggests the Fed may ultimately conclude that underlying inflation pressures are less severe than headline data currently indicate. She contends that once temporary energy-related distortions are removed, inflation is already much closer to the Fed's target than widely believed. Another point attracting attention was Warsh's treatment of the Fed's so-called "dot plot." Although the latest projections showed a significant number of policymakers expecting higher rates by year-end, Warsh downplayed the importance of those forecasts, noting that participants effectively submitted their projections in pencil and could easily revise them as conditions change. Ivaldi argues that the chairman's remarks undermine the market's assumption that the Fed is preparing for additional tightening. She noted that Warsh confirmed there was no active discussion of raising rates at the current meeting and emphasized the uncertainty surrounding future policy decisions. For gold investors, however, Ivaldi believes the more important story lies beyond Fed policy. She argues that geopolitical developments in the Middle East and the gradual evolution of non-dollar trade arrangements continue to support long-term demand for physical gold. Ivaldi explained that the reopening of energy trade routes could restore flows in which Middle Eastern trade surpluses are converted into physical gold through Chinese markets, creating a structural source of demand largely independent of short-term interest-rate expectations. Ivaldi also maintains that rising sovereign debt burdens and pressure on government financing costs ultimately limit how restrictive monetary policy can become. In her view, policymakers face increasing incentives to keep Treasury yields contained, a backdrop that historically has been supportive for hard assets such as gold. Warsh himself offered little guidance on the future path of rates, repeatedly stressing that the Fed had abandoned formal forward guidance and would remain focused on incoming data. He also emphasized that the central bank's credibility would ultimately be measured by its ability to deliver price stability rather than by its rhetoric. For now, gold traders appear focused on the chairman's inflation-fighting language. But Ivaldi argues that investors should pay closer attention to what she sees as the deeper forces reshaping global capital flows. "The jawboning works for a few days, but the underlying plumbing tells the real story," she said. “The dollar is left less fungible for international trade, not more, the sovereign debt burden remains massive, and the long-term structural case for gold has only grown stronger. Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-06-19/golds-post-fed-selloff-may-be-missing-bigger-picture-says-former-lehman

Published: Jun 19, 2026 - 5:54 AM (Kitco News) – Gold prices saw another volatile week, as early safe-haven demand from Middle East uncertainty gave way to heavy selling after the Federal Reserve held rates steady but signaled that a 2026 rate hike remained on the table. Spot gold kicked off the week trading at $4,210.52 per ounce on Sunday evening, and quickly pushed higher as traders continued to price in geopolitical risk around the U.S.-Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz. The rally continued through Monday’s and Tuesday’s trading sessions, with gold holding above $4,300 as markets looked ahead to the Fed decision and monitored signs of progress toward a regional de-escalation. Gold made its strongest move on Wednesday, when spot prices set their weekly high at $4,381.83 per ounce just minutes before the rate announcement, but the advance quickly reversed after the Fed left rates unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% while signaling that another rate hike before year-end was possible. The hawkish shift lifted the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, undercutting gold despite lingering concerns about inflation and the Middle East. The yellow metal’s selloff accelerated Thursday after the U.S. and Iran signed a preliminary agreement to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, easing oil prices and reducing some of gold’s safe-haven appeal. Spot gold broke back below $4,250 and ultimately set its weekly low at $4,201.14 per ounce on Thursday afternoon as U.S. markets closed ahead of Friday’s Juneteenth holiday. The latest Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey showed the bears back in control on Wall Street after the Fed’s hawkish lean, while Main Street sentiment bounced back into bullish territory despite gold’s late-week slide. “Unchanged (but volatile),” said Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management. “The tone of the Federal Reserve meeting and new chairman Kevin Warsh’s comments came as a shock to the market, which will have to absorb the apparent shift in coming days and weeks. Warsh himself is unlikely to make attempts to clarify his comments–unlike under the last Fed Chairman–so we will have to wait for the next fed meeting to see where the Fed goes next. In the meantime, a peace in Iran, albeit fragile, as well as ongoing purchases from central banks and Tether, supports the price on the downside.” Darin Newsom, senior market analyst at Barchart.com, sees gold prices sliding further next week. “Why? That’s how the coin toss went this morning,” he said. “The bottom line is nothing about the market has changed. Central banks continue to buy while investors continue to sell. Inflation is still a concern, with the US FOMC hinting at a rate hike before the end of 2026. While this could support the US dollar, theoretically weakening dollar-backed commodities like gold, it doesn’t change the fact central banks would rather own gold long-term than the dollar.” “Up,” said Rich Checkan, president and COO of Asset Strategies International. “I still believe the pullback was completely overdone. A lot of where things go now rest on the peace deal to be signed in Switzerland and the details that get ironed out over the next 60 days. If we keep moving toward a more lasting peace, gold should benefit… despite what Chairman Warsh does at the Fed.” “I’m betting on peace, and I’m betting on gold.” Kevin Grady, president of Phoenix Futures and Options, told Kitco News that Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as head of the Fed went well, but it’s clear the FOMC is divided on the rate path. “What really came out was that it looks like there's a lot of members that are looking for rate hikes,” he said. “I think that's the story.” As far as the reaction from precious metals, Grady said while the price action may look dramatic, there’s nothing behind it right now. “I always go back to the volume,” Grady said. “You see gold is down $115; it was down $125... the [front-month futures] volume didn't even break 100,000 for the day. Just anemic, no one's trading. We see silver almost down $5, but the total silver volume from last night at 6 pm is 31,000 contracts.” “They're just not trading it,” he added. “Volumes are anemic, the open interest is extremely low. There's not a lot of interest in the market right now.” Grady said that gold found solid support at the $4,000 per ounce level, and we could be headed back there in short order. “You can see the psychological level of $4,000 is going to be good support for gold,” he said. “But if we just keep sitting around these levels and no one comes in to start buying it, I think that you're going to see a retest of those lows.” Grady said nothing about new Fed chair Warsh appears to be rubbing markets the wrong way, and the bearish moves he sees are a response to others on the FOMC. “I think the market's reacting to the other Fed governors who are looking for rate hikes,” he said. “That's what the gold market's reacting to, anyway. The equities don't seem to be reacting to any of that. But I think what Warsh is holding onto, and why he keeps stressing that he wants to focus on the data that's coming out, is because if you look at the latest inflation numbers, everything's coming from energy. As I'm talking, the energy market's ticking down, and now we're seeing $75 crude oil.” “If we can get gas prices down around $3, or even under $3, I think the whole picture changes, because the inflation data will change.” Looking ahead to the holiday weekend, Grady said he wouldn’t want to be on either side of any gold trades, but he expects gold prices to test the recent lows when traders return next week. “I'd be flat, and I plan on being flat,” he said. “I feel like we haven't seen the lows in gold. I think we're going to see a retest of those lows in gold, possibly even next week. I'm looking at the screen right now, it's a fifty-cent bid-ask spread, one lot up, no volume on that screen. People are not trading. If people saw this as a value area, they'd be in there buying. And I just don't think there's a lot of people in there buying.” “I think we have to find that level, so I'm looking for a retest of those lows.” This week, 10 analysts participated in the Kitco News Gold Survey, with Wall Street’s majority opinion turning bearish as gold gave up its gains following the reemergence of rate hikes on the horizon. Only one expert, or 10%, expected to see gold prices gain ground during the week ahead, while seven others – fully 70% of the total – predicted a price decline. The remaining two analysts, representing 20%, saw the yellow metal trending sideways next week. Meanwhile, 46 votes were cast in Kitco’s online poll, with Main Street investors returning to their bullish baseline despite gold’s post-Fed weakness. 25 retail traders, or 54%, looked for gold prices to rise next week, while another 16, or 35%, predicted the yellow metal would lose ground. The remaining five investors, representing 11% of the total, expect to see consolidation during the coming week. Next week’s economic data will feature the final reading of Q1 GDP and PCE inflation, along with an early look at manufacturing and services purchasing for June The data calendar starts on Tuesday morning with the release of S&P Global Flash PMI for June. Then on Wednesday, markets will be watching New Home Sales for May. Thursday will see the release of final US Q1 GDP and PCE, along with weekly jobless claims, and May durable goods orders. The week wraps up on Friday morning with the final print of University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for June. Nicky Shiels, head of research and metals strategy at MKS PAMP, said the new Fed chair didn’t do gold any favors. “This meeting makes the Gold rally from ~$4K/oz look increasingly like a tactical dead-cat bounce, not a structural reversal,” she warned. “Until the task force outputs land (~6wks) and there's clarity on what they actually decide, the statement & presser have to be read as more hawkish than the market priced going in → rallies to be sold, not chased.” Alex Kuptsikevich, senior market analyst at FxPro, expects gold prices to decline next week. “It appears the rally triggered by the signing of the US-Iran memorandum has ended amid the Fed’s hawkish stance, sparking a wave of US dollar buying,” he said. “From a technical analysis perspective, the long-standing key support level, the 200-day moving average, has shifted to resistance. However, for this view to be confirmed, gold would need to fall below $4,000, breaking through the key round figure and the area of the previous rebound. That said, the bulls still harbour faint hopes that this level will once again attract buyers.” “Either way, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a retest of $4,000 next week.” Michael Moor, founder of Moor Analytics, expects to see lower gold prices in the coming days. “LOWER unless we take out lower timeframe formation above mentioned below,” he said. “In a Higher time frame: I cautioned on 8/16/18 the break above $1,183.0 warned of renewed strength. We have seen $4,443.1. This is ON HOLD. The trade below 52554 projected this down $740 (+)—we attained $1,209.2. The trade below 52036 brought in $1,157.4 of pressure. The trade below 51606 brought in $1,114.4 of pressure. These are OFF HOLD.” “On a lower timeframe basis: We held exhaustion with a 49177 high and rolled over $871.5,” Moor said. “The break below 48185 projected this down $185 (+)—we attained $772.3. The trade below 47923 projected this down $205 (+)—we attained $746.1. The break below 47420 brought in $695.8 of pressure. On 5/15 we left a medium bearish reversal—we have come off $507.0 from 45532. These are OFF HOLD. We held medium timeframe exhaustion with a 40462 low and rallied $345.3—if we continue to rally into a bullish correction, the minimum target is 50547. Friday we left the minor bullish reversal—we have rallied $167.9 from the 42326 open. The break above 42236 (-20.6 per/hour) projects this up $65 min, $155 (+) max—we attained $158.9. The break above 42769 (-14 tics per/hour) has brought in $114.6 of strength. These are ON HOLD. We held exhaustion with a 44036 high and rolled over $166.2 into a bearish correction/trend against the move up from 40462, with possible exhaustion at 42249-069 and 41840-1677, but these are premature to hold. A maintained gap lower will leave a minor bearish reversal.” At the time of writing, spot gold last traded at $4,208.99 per ounce for a flat performance on the week and a loss of 1.14% on the day. Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-06-18/wall-street-bears-back-control-after-feds-hawkish-outlook-main-street-leans

June 18, 2026 The Federal Reserve’s first interest rate meeting under new Chairman Kevin Warsh initially dealt a significant blow to the price of gold . But as early as the following day, an interim agreement with Iran signed by U.S. President Donald Trump turned the tide. The resulting decline in oil prices eased inflation concerns and allowed gold to partially recoup its initial losses. Although the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee , as expected and unanimously, kept the benchmark interest rate within the range of 3.50 to 3.75 percent—this time even Stephen Miran, who had previously always voted for cuts, joined the majority—the new interest rate projections revealed a significant shift in monetary policy. Nine of the 19 Fed members believe an interest rate hike is necessary before the end of the year, with six of them even targeting increases of more than 25 basis points. Just three months ago, no one on the committee had anticipated a tightening. Currently, only a single member sees room for rate cuts. The Fed attributes this restrictive stance to a persistently robust economy, strong productivity growth, and stubborn, supply-driven inflation, particularly in the energy sector. As a result, gold came under pressure immediately after the meeting, falling to $4,290.52 per ounce and posting daily losses of just under one percent. However, concerns about rising interest rates—the classic headwind for the non-interest-bearing precious metal—were short-lived. With the signing of the U.S.-Iran interim agreement, oil prices plummeted. This stripped the markets’ interest rate concerns of their main driver: inflationary pressure stemming from the energy sector. As a result of the geopolitical détente, gold regained some ground. Short-covering in the futures market further reinforced this upward movement. The latest market reactions highlight the gold price’s high sensitivity to the close interplay of geopolitics, energy costs, and monetary policy. Against this backdrop, an alternative central bank strategy is also coming into focus: Under Warsh, the Fed could in the future attempt to tighten financing conditions more through accelerated balance sheet reduction rather than through direct interest rate hikes. For gold investors, however, the oil price remains the decisive variable for the time being. If the oil price remains capped due to the easing of tensions in the Middle East, the Fed will gain monetary policy leeway, which is likely to provide a further boost to the gold price. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-signing-of-iran-deal-partially-offsets-restrictive-fed-signals