[Price Review] During the week, silver prices remained in the doldrums. In China, the Ag (T+D) contract on the Shanghai Gold Exchange broke below the support level of 18,000 yuan/kg, while LBMA silver prices kept probing lower after falling below $75/oz. From a macro perspective, escalating geopolitical conflict in the Middle East pushed oil prices to repeated new highs, while intensifying inflation concerns significantly cooled expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts and delayed the timing of the first cut to year-end. The simultaneous strength in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields became the core factors suppressing silver prices. On Wednesday local time, the US Fed announced that it would keep interest rates unchanged. In the statement released that day, it noted that the impact of the Middle East situation on the US economy remained uncertain and that uncertainty surrounding the US economic outlook was still elevated. In addition, speculative demand and ETF holdings continued to decline, and market sentiment kept cooling. As for the gold/silver ratio, because silver posted a deeper decline, the ratio continued to rise. As of March 18, the LBMA gold/silver ratio had climbed to 63, a recent high. [Important Data] Bullish: US preliminary March one-year inflation expectations came in at 3.4%, above expectations and unchanged from the previous reading Bearish: US API crude oil inventory for the week ended March 13 increased by 6.556 million barrels, above expectations and the previous reading US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ended March 13 increased by 6.156 million barrels, above expectations and the previous reading Data and macro releases to watch next week include: Continued hawkishness from the US Fed, the ECB rate decision, US inflation/employment data, COMEX silver delivery, together with the Boao Forum and geopolitical risks On March 19, the FOMC kept rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, raised its 2026 PCE forecast to 2.7%, and expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts cooled sharply. US-Iran Situation: As of March 19, the military strikes by the US and Israel against Iran had entered their 19th day, with high-intensity confrontation, no sign of a ceasefire, and the conflict spreading to multiple Gulf countries. In terms of the current impact on precious metals, financial suppression outweighed safe-haven demand. Against the backdrop of surging inflation expectations, the US dollar and US Treasury yields continued to rise, the timing of US Fed interest rate cuts was delayed, and silver prices were suppressed. [Price Forecast] Silver prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the doldrums amid the interplay between macro disruptions and fundamentals. On the macro front, caution is still warranted over the risk of continued US dollar strength and heightened volatility from any further escalation in the US-Iran conflict. On the fundamentals side, as PV export rush orders gradually approached their end, rigid demand for raw material procurement by silver nitrate enterprises declined in late March, weakening support from industrial demand. In China's spot market, as investment demand and rigid industrial demand softened, coupled with replenishment from imported silver ingots, circulating supply of silver ingots in the spot market became ample, and suppliers generally lowered spot premium quotes to facilitate transactions. The abnormally high spot premiums in China's spot market will come to an end. At the same time, profitability on imported silver ingots will also decline sharply, and spot premium quotes in actual spot silver ingot transactions are expected to return to rational levels.

[Price Review] This week, silver prices continued to consolidate in a fluctuating range, but the war-driven rise in crude oil prices boosted US dollar demand again, putting pressure on precious metal prices and leaving the market relatively weak. Although during the week silver prices on the SGE tested the support level of 20,000 yuan/kg, and LBMA silver briefly fell below $80/oz, both later rebounded, indicating moderate support on the downside. This round of market movement was mainly affected by fading expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts and the still-uncertain direction of geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Market participation in the silver market declined, and short-term fluctuations narrowed somewhat. Gold/silver ratio, both gold and silver prices showed a consolidating fluctuating trend this week, and the gold/silver ratio also fluctuated around 60. [Key Data] Bullish: US February seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls: -9.2, below expectations and the previous reading US API crude oil inventory for the week ended March 6: -1.678 million, below expectations and the previous reading Bearish: US January retail sales MoM: -0.2%, above expectations and below the previous reading US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ended March 6: 382.4, above expectations and the previous reading Data and macro releases to watch next week include: The US Fed will announce its March interest rate decision and economic outlook, including the dot plot. The market generally expects the US Fed to keep rates unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range, and the probability of an interest rate cut has fallen to near zero. Fed Chairman Powell will hold a press conference after the rate decision to elaborate on the policy stance. US-Iran situation: Since the large-scale military action launched by the US and Israel against Iran on February 28, 2026, the conflict has lasted for more than two weeks. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced the highest level of combat readiness, and the Foreign Ministry explicitly ruled out the possibility of opening negotiations. The transmission effect through the energy channel (inflation) far exceeded that through other channels. Inflation concerns instead weighed on expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts, and the high-interest-rate environment pressured non-yielding assets such as gold and silver. [Price Forecast] Silver prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend amid the contest between macro disturbances and fundamentals. The continuing impact of the sharp rise in crude oil prices in the short term has gradually been transmitted, while renewed strength in demand for the US dollar and US Treasuries, together with cooling expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts, will keep precious metal prices under pressure in the short term.

[Price Review] During the Chinese New Year holiday, overseas precious metals were affected by multiple factors including US macro policies and Middle East geopolitical conflicts. Silver prices showed a V-shaped reversal trend, falling first and then rising. As of the closing on February 23, spot silver in London closed at $88.17 per ounce, up approximately 13.8% compared to the pre-holiday closing price of $77.46 per ounce on February 13. A pre-holiday decline in US stocks, combined with weakened liquidity, dragged down overseas precious metal prices, which continued to fall in the early part of the Chinese New Year holiday week. Subsequently, the US released its Q4 GDP growth for last year, which fell short of expectations, leading precious metals to stop falling and rebound. Last Friday (February 20), the US Supreme Court ruled to repeal most of the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration last year, and Trump immediately announced an additional 10% tariff on all global imports to the US over the next 150 days. This news reignited market concerns about trade conflicts and economic downturn. Additionally, stalled US-Iran negotiations, which could lead to a worsening situation in the Middle East, stimulated safe-haven demand. Precious metals surged significantly during the session, recovering previous losses, with silver leading the gains sharply. After the Chinese New Year holiday this week, uncertainties around tariff policies and geopolitical impacts continued to ferment. Domestic silver prices opened higher and extended their strong upward trend. After SHFE deliveries concluded on Thursday, spot cargo flowed out, and previously imported crude silver materials entered the market after processing, temporarily alleviating the tight supply of national standard silver ingots. Approaching the weekend, silver prices showed some weakness in continuing their rally. Regarding the gold/silver ratio, as silver led the precious metals gains during the holiday against a backdrop of low inventory levels, the gold/silver ratio dropped back slightly below 60 times. As of February 25, the LBMA gold/silver ratio pulled back to about 57 times. [Important Data] Bullish: US EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending February 13 were -9.014 million barrels, lower than the previous value and expectations. The final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for February was 56.6, lower than the previous value and expectations. Bearish: US initial jobless claims for the week ending February 14 were 206,000, lower than the previous value and expectations. The US core PCE price index annual rate for December was 3%, higher than the previous value and expectations. US EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending February 20 were 1,598.9, higher than the previous value and expectations. Data and macro news releases to focus on next week include: This Friday, the US will release the January core PCE price index, the inflation indicator most closely watched by the US Fed, which will directly impact monetary policy expectations. On March 6 (Friday) at 21:30, the US will release the February seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls data and unemployment rate, key indicators for assessing the US labour market conditions and the US Fed's policy direction. Next week, Fed Chairman Powell and several governors and voting members will deliver speeches, requiring attention to their latest statements on inflation, the job market, and the impact of tariff policies. U.S.-Iran situation: The third round of indirect talks between the U.S. and Iran was held on February 26, with both sides reaching consensus on the guiding principles for negotiations, but core disagreements remain. The U.S. military has deployed two aircraft carriers to the Middle East, and the period from March to July 2026 is a high-risk window, requiring vigilance against risks of negotiation breakdown or escalation of military friction. [Price Forecast] Silver prices have ended the wild swings in the short term. As London silver prices break through the 50-day daily average and stabilize above key support levels, bulls are expected to return to the market. Overall, overseas silver prices may move sideways next week, but risks of high fluctuations due to further escalation of U.S.-Iran negotiation outcomes and Trump's tariff policies still require caution. On the domestic spot price front, despite robust downstream demand, previously imported crude silver and large ingots have been processed and refined and are gradually entering the market. Some suppliers have slightly lowered their premium quotes, and further narrowing of domestic silver ingot premium is expected.

[Price Review] Driven by CME’s seven consecutive emergency margin hikes on silver futures to 18%, a liquidity squeeze and exchange-mandated cooling measures together steered the overheated silver price back to earth. This week the silver market moved sideways after wild swings. On the SHFE side, the exchange released on Wednesday the “Automatic Conversion Standard for Hedging Position Quotas”; although the TD price on the SGE did not narrow versus the SHFE silver 2602 contract, the backwardation structure of the SHFE calendar spread kept converging and the risk of a speculative short squeeze declined. This week the SGE deferred-fee direction again stayed “short pays long”, and traders holding longs still found it hard to pick up physical metal through SGE delivery. As for the gold/silver ratio, silver’s plunge far outpaced gold’s, sending the ratio from the prior 47× low to near the 70 handle, a two-and-a-half-month high, showing silver’s volatility during deleveraging was markedly above gold’s. By 12 February, as silver rebounded, the ratio pulled back to roughly 60×; with short-term speculative money out, the ratio is expected to consolidate in a range. [Key Data] Bullish: US Dec retail sales m/m 0%, below both prior and expectations Bearish: US Jan unemployment 4.3%, below prior and expectations US Jan seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls 130,000, above prior and expectations US week to 6 Feb EIA crude inventory: 8.53 million barrels, above prior and expectations Data and macro headlines to watch next week include: This Friday the US will release the Jan non-farm payrolls and unemployment, but note the BLS has warned the report could be delayed due to the partial government shutdown. Several Fed officials will speak, including Atlanta Fed President Bostic on the economic outlook. [Price Forecast] Domestic markets entered a holiday lull this week. Overseas liquidity over the holiday left short-term speculative money cautious about re-entering silver, awaiting either the full deflation of price froth or the removal of margin-hike risk controls. Post-holiday silver is expected to search for a new equilibrium after the wild swings. A possibly soft US data set this week and lingering worries over Fed independence have weakened the US dollar index, briefly lifting precious metals. Although supply-demand fundamentals still lend medium- and long-term support, sentiment-driven spikes and the ever-present threat of rapid pullbacks keep silver in a high-risk, high-volatility environment. Overall, post-holiday silver is likely to hover at highs; stay alert to liquidity risk amid elevated volatility. 》Check SMM precious-metals spot quotes

[Price Review] This week, the silver market experienced historic and extreme volatility. The LBMA silver price first recorded its largest single-day drop in history on January 30, then plunged over 15% during trading on February 2, breaking below the $72/oz level, rebounded slightly, and weakened again. This round of volatility was triggered by hawkish policy concerns following the news of "Wash being nominated as the next Fed Chairman," leading to a price collapse as speculative bulls rushed to exit, creating a scenario of longs squeezing longs. In the SHFE silver market, the previously rare backwardation structure narrowed this week as the premium of the Shanghai market over LBMA widened, and imported silver ingots and crude silver raw materials slowly flowed into the market. However, spot market availability remained tight. The direction of the deferred fee on the gold exchange has consistently been short paying long since December 25, 2025, and the total physical delivery volume remained low. Regarding the gold/silver ratio, it widened significantly during the silver crash, approaching 60 times, and as of February 4, the LBMA gold/silver ratio rebounded slightly to 55 times, significantly deviating from previous lows. Silver exhibited much higher volatility than gold during the deleveraging process. [Price Forecast] Given the current high-risk environment of extreme volatility in precious metals, speculative funds may continue to enter the market next week. After the violent price swings, silver prices will seek a new equilibrium as the market digests US Fed policy expectations and the repricing of physical and paper silver. From a fund flow perspective, after taking profits, long funds turned to short positions. Some market traders mentioned the possibility of cash settlement being initiated if COMEX physical delivery defaults occur. The pattern of declining inventory and tight supply has not fundamentally reversed. Domestically, physical prices showed unusual premiums compared to both the gold exchange and SHFE prices, with suppliers noticeably reluctant to sell. Spot premiums are expected to see limited declines before the Chinese New Year holiday. As downstream industries gradually shut down for the holiday and just-in-time procurement concludes, silver price premiums may gradually pull back. Subsequent attention should remain on geopolitical disturbances and guidance from US Fed officials' speeches regarding real interest rate expectations. [Key Data] Bullish: US January ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 52.6, higher than the previous value and expectations. US January ADP Employment Change came in at 22,000, lower than the previous value and expectations. US EIA Crude Oil Inventories for the week ending January 30 came in at -3.455 million barrels, lower than the previous value and expectations. Bearish: Eurozone January Services PMI Final came in at 51.6, lower than the previous value and expectations. Key data and macro news releases to watch next week include: This Friday, the US will release the January Nonfarm Payrolls report and unemployment rate data, but special note is required as the US Bureau of Labor Statistics has warned that partial government shutdown may cause delays in this data release. Several US Fed officials are scheduled to speak intensively, including Atlanta Fed President Bostic, who will speak on the economic outlook.

In the short term, silver prices have held key support levels and ended the pullback phase but remain fluctuating at highs. The three key drivers—macro interest rate cuts, industrial demand gaps, and gold/silver ratio correction—remain unchanged, while ETF open interest continues to stay elevated. If inflation data this week aligns with expectations and no unexpected geopolitical easing occurs, bullish sentiment may reignite, potentially driving silver prices into a new upward trend.