[SMM Weekly Platinum and Palladium Review] This week (May 11 – May 15), the most-traded platinum contract PT2606 on China's GFEX opened at 509 yuan/gram and closed at 499.05 yuan/gram, down 14.95 yuan/gram or 2.91% from last week's settlement price, with a weekly highest price of 542.25 yuan/gram and a weekly lowest price of 496.05 yuan/gram; the most-traded palladium contract PD2606 opened at 366 yuan/gram and closed at 345 yuan/gram, down 26.45 yuan/gram or 7.12% from last week's settlement price, with a weekly highest price of 376.85 yuan/gram and a weekly lowest price of 340 yuan/gram. In terms of futures trading: the most-traded platinum contract PT2606 recorded a total weekly trading volume of 32,874 lots with a total turnover of 17.139 billion yuan and open interest of 9,970 lots, down 4,309 lots WoW. The most-traded palladium contract PD2606 recorded a total weekly trading volume of 18,453 lots with a total turnover of 6.651 billion yuan and open interest of 6,565 lots, down 499 lots WoW. Platinum and palladium first rose and then declined during the week. Peru experienced a sudden energy crisis within the week and issued a national emergency decree. Power rationing was expected to cause mine shutdowns, thereby affecting supply. As the world's 12th largest mining country, Peru holds 21.8% of global silver reserves, which triggered a silver rally. Driven by sector spillover effects, platinum and palladium also rose accordingly. The subsequent decline was concentrated on Friday, when platinum and palladium plunged sharply intraday. Trump's visit to China eased tariff expectations and suppressed strategic resource premiums, while a rising US dollar index and elevated medium- to long-term US Treasury yields jointly weighed on precious metal valuations. On the Middle East geopolitical front: Gulf states discussed post-war regional governance. Saudi Arabia proposed a non-aggression pact, and Israel's defense minister stated that military action against Iran might be taken again. On the US Fed front: the US Senate confirmed Warsh as Fed Chairman by a vote of 54 to 45. However, Powell is expected to remain as a Fed governor. This vote marked the most partisan-divided confirmation in history. "The strongest dissenting governor" Miran officially submitted his resignation on Thursday, stating that the current interest rates were too high. On trade and tariffs: during Trump's visit to China, the two sides reached multiple important consensuses, agreeing to manage tariff differences and restart dedicated trade negotiations. The US suspended new tariffs on China and will gradually reduce punitive tariffs. Both sides enhanced strategic mutual trust and expanded cooperation across multiple areas, laying an important foundation for the easing and stable development of bilateral relations. In terms of supply: South Africa's power shortage eased significantly, and PGM mine expansions progressed; Nornickel's Q1 platinum and palladium production declined sharply, mainly due to Western sanctions affecting its payments, logistics, and equipment imports. Nornickel's platinum and palladium production is expected to see significant production cuts in 2026. On the demand side: PGM demand from the fiberglass industry showed positive momentum. In 2026, China's fiberglass industry is expected to shift from platinum-based to palladium-based applications, with multiple enterprises deploying related technologies and considerable substitution potential. Recent precious metals market trading focused on uncertainties arising from recurring Middle East geopolitical conflicts, US Fed monetary policy expectations, economic stagflation, and financial market risks. Continued attention should be paid to changes in Middle East geopolitical dynamics, the implementation of power rationing in Peru, and speeches by US Fed officials, as well as palladium trial results in the fiberglass sector.

[SMM Platinum & Palladium Weekly Review] This week (April 6 – April 10), on China's Guangzhou Futures Exchange, the most-traded platinum contract PT2606 opened at 502.9 yuan/gram and closed at 521.45 yuan/gram, up 19.2 yuan/gram or 3.82% from last week's settlement price, with a highest price of 529.5 yuan/gram and a lowest price of 496.65 yuan/gram; the most-traded palladium contract PD2606 opened at 377.85 yuan/gram and closed at 385.05 yuan/gram, up 7.65 yuan/gram or 2.03% from last week's settlement price, with a highest price of 399.85 yuan/gram and a lowest price of 366.2 yuan/gram. Futures trading: the most-traded platinum contract PT2606 recorded a total weekly trading volume of 18,133 lots with a total turnover of 9.348 billion yuan and open interest of 15,303 lots, a WoW decrease of 1,287 lots. The most-traded palladium contract PD2606 recorded a total weekly trading volume of 11,379 lots with a total turnover of 4.348 billion yuan and open interest of 7,216 lots, a WoW increase of 88 lots. US-Iran conflict, Israel launched its most intense airstrikes on Lebanon to date. On April 9, the Speaker of Iran's Parliament issued a statement saying that three key provisions in the proposal (comprehensive ceasefire, airspace security, and uranium enrichment rights) had been violated before negotiations even began, and under such circumstances, a bilateral ceasefire or negotiations would be unreasonable. Iranian media issued a statement claiming the Strait of Hormuz had been fully closed. US Fed monetary policy, Fed Vice Chair Jefferson noted that employment faced downside risks while inflation faced upside risks. Nick Timiraos wrote that the ceasefire agreement made the US Fed's decision-making more difficult, as energy fluctuations persisted, leading to a prolonged period of rates being held steady. Tariff side, tariff policy has been one of the core political assets during Trump's administration. If high tariffs cannot be maintained through legal channels, his political influence and foreign negotiation leverage will be significantly weakened. After the "reciprocal tariffs" were overturned by the Supreme Court, the Trump administration implemented temporary tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Expansion Act in the short term to fill the policy vacuum, and in the medium and long-term may rely on Sections 232 and 301 to sustain a high-tariff policy framework, while threatening on social media to impose 50% tariffs on countries providing military weapons to Iran. Against this backdrop, the final determination in the anti-dumping and countervailing duty investigations on Russian unwrought palladium is highly likely to maintain the affirmative conclusions of the preliminary ruling. Additionally, the tariff illegality ruling triggered massive tax refund pressures, exacerbating the US fiscal burden, and after geopolitical premiums are digested, will reinforce the "weak US dollar" logic. Palladium new demand, attention should be paid to China's fiberglass industry's transition from platinum to palladium. Starting April 2026, full-year testing will be conducted, and if successful, annual demand could reach 800,000 ounces, potentially offsetting declining demand from the automotive industry. Watch for palladium test results in the fiberglass sector. Watch for the US International Trade Commission's final-stage injury hearing on the palladium anti-dumping and countervailing duty case on April 27. Watch for the transition following LBMA's appointment of IBA as the platinum and palladium price auction administrator.

In recent years, the PV industry has entered a period of deep adjustment, with module prices continuing to decline, and both upstream and downstream segments of the industry chain facing severe profit compression. Driven by the imperative of "extreme cost reduction," PV glass, a key auxiliary material for PV modules, has imposed increasingly stringent requirements on the cost and quality of upstream raw materials.

[SMM Silicon-based PV Morning Meeting Summary: Uncertainty in Subsequent Polysilicon Supply Increases, Prices Pull Back Slightly Before and After the Exhibition] Over the weekend, the price of N-type recharging polysilicon was 34-37 yuan/kg, and the N-type polysilicon price index was 34.11 yuan/kg. Last week, polysilicon prices weakened slightly, with some leading manufacturers shipping at slightly lower prices. Currently, sentiment in modules and other sectors is relatively pessimistic, and crystal pulling plants are still driving down prices.

[SMM Silicon-based PV Morning Meeting Summary: Polysilicon Prices Experience Some Tug-of-War, Module Scheduled Production Further Reduced] Over the weekend, the price of N-type recharging polysilicon was 35-38 yuan/kg, and the N-type polysilicon price index was 35.2 yuan/kg. Last week, polysilicon prices were largely stable. During the non-peak order signing period, market transactions were relatively limited, with crystal pulling plants and major polysilicon producers engaging in some price negotiations for dense recharging polysilicon around the 34-36 yuan/kg range.

Wishing everyone a happy and healthy Dragon Boat Festival! Let's first take a look at the latest news. Trump says he will raise tariffs on imported steel from 25% to 50% According to CCTV News, on May 30 local time, US President Trump stated that tariffs on imported steel would be raised from 25% to 50%. The US White House issued an announcement on social media on the same day, stating that to further protect the US steel industry from foreign and unfair competition, starting next week, tariffs on imported steel in the US would be raised from 25% to 50%. On February 10 local time, Trump signed an executive order announcing a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imported into the US. On March 12, the measure to impose a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imported into the US officially took effect. In addition, Trump stated that US automakers, including Tesla, must produce entire vehicles and all parts in the US, rather than abroad. Trump expressed that he was troubled by the fact that automakers previously produced parts in Canada, Mexico, and European countries, but in the coming year, these automakers "must produce entire vehicles in the US." OPEC+ may increase oil production more than expected in July On the evening of May 30, Reuters reported that sources said OPEC+ might discuss increasing oil production in July at its meeting on Saturday, with the increase potentially exceeding market expectations of 411,000 barrels per day. The report stated that despite the additional supply weighing on oil prices, OPEC+ member countries have been rapidly increasing production. Part of the intention of the organization's leading countries, Saudi Arabia and Russia, in this move is to punish member countries that have overproduced and regain market share. Some sources indicated that Kazakhstan's statement on Thursday that it would not cut production sparked debate within OPEC+, a factor that might tilt Saturday's meeting towards a larger production increase. Russia and Saudi Arabia did not immediately respond to requests for comment on Friday. Following the news, international oil prices plunged in the short term, with WTI crude oil futures falling below the $60/barrel mark during the session. Falling below the 1,000 yuan/mt mark! When will glass futures hit bottom? Recently, spot prices of glass have continued to decline, and futures prices have also continued to weaken. Yesterday, the most-traded glass futures contract fell below the 1,000 yuan/mt mark, dropping to a low of 971 yuan/mt. "Domestic demand for float glass has been weak this week, and prices have continued to fall," said Wei Chaoming, an analyst at Founder Securities Futures. He noted that two float glass production lines commenced operations this week, coupled with news of production resumption plans from some major manufacturers, leading to a growing wait-and-see sentiment in the market. In his view, although the spot market performed poorly, futures prices fluctuated due to environmental protection news from Hubei. On Wednesday, the most-traded glass futures contract rebounded to 1,050 yuan/mt at one point. As the rainy season approaches, demand remains in the doldrums, compounded by the aforementioned production resumption news, futures prices pulled back rapidly, with the most-traded contract falling below the 1,000 yuan/mt threshold, hitting a new low for the period. Fundamentally, the movement of futures prices was within market expectations. According to Jialu Shou, an analyst at Nanhua Futures, the spot market has been weak recently, with poor production and sales performance. Spot prices in Hubei continued to decline, once dropping to 1,010 yuan/mt, while outbound prices even fell below 1,000 yuan/mt. The spot price correction confirmed prior market expectations. Additionally, glass producers' inventories remain high, and downstream enterprises show low enthusiasm for restocking. Shou noted that from January to May 2025, glass apparent demand fell 10% YoY, below market expectations. Based on the current apparent demand trend, daily melting capacity of float glass would need to drop to 154,000 mt to achieve supply-demand balance in H2. Further reductions would be required to destock during the off-season. "The main pressure facing the glass market currently is weak demand and subdued market expectations. This has led to a supply-demand mismatch even with low daily melting capacity," Shou said. The market expects low prices to push glass producers into a new round of maintenance. Fundamental improvements later would depend on either capacity exits or demand recovery, with the former being more likely. Peng Hu, senior energy and chemical analyst at China Securities Futures, agreed: "Whether fundamentals improve later hinges on whether supply declines following price drops. Before the September-October peak season in H2, if glass supply decreases, high inventory pressure at enterprises could ease." Futures Daily learned from interviews that glass prices are already at relatively low levels, with production lines fueled by natural gas and petroleum coke operating at a loss, while those using coal gas still have profit margins. "From a valuation perspective, glass prices still have about 100 yuan/mt of downside room before the entire industry chain incurs losses," Shou said. Currently, no unexpected maintenance has occurred on the supply side, with some production lines still starting up, providing support for shorts to further depress glass prices. The undervalued state of glass prices will be hard to reverse in the short term. Chaoming Wei stated that glass price trends reflect profound changes in the industry environment. Under supply-demand mismatch conditions, glass prices will remain in the doldrums over the medium and long term."In the glass industry, cold repairs and production resumptions coexist. From the perspective of the industry's inventory levels, the maintenance of a small number of production lines is unlikely to have a fundamental impact on the supply-demand pattern of the industry." He believes that the glass industry has sufficient potential supply capability, and if industry profits improve, it will incentivize more production lines currently under maintenance to resume production. In Shou Jialu's view, the capacity exit situation on the supply side in the later period will determine the trend of glass prices. "From the perspective of trading logic, the longer the low glass prices persist, the stronger the market's expectations will be for industry shutdowns, maintenance, and capacity exits," she said. "Currently, after the most-traded glass futures contract fell below the 1,000 yuan/mt integer threshold, there is no clear support level in the short term," said Wei Chaoming. Compared with the most-traded contract, the current prices of raw materials for glass production, such as coal and soda ash, have all pulled back significantly, indicating that there is still downside room for glass prices. However, Hu Peng believes that the downside room for glass futures prices is relatively limited. He predicts that in extreme cases, glass futures prices may dip to 900 yuan/mt. In his view, with the continuous decline in glass prices, the glass industry may enter a new round of structural adjustment.