Against the backdrop of accelerating global energy transition and digital economy development, silver—a strategic metal possessing both industrial and financial attributes—is witnessing profound transformation across its industry chain. On one hand, emerging sectors such as PV, NEV, and 5G communications are driving continuously climbing demand for silver, propelling the industry toward higher value-added and greener upgrades; on the other hand, resource constraints, technological barriers, and market fluctuations are imposing higher demands on industry chain resilience, urgently requiring innovation-driven coordinated development across the entire chain. Dual Drivers of Policy and Market Under China's "dual carbon" goals and the global ESG investment wave, the silver industry faces pressing needs for green production, circular utilization, and low-carbon technologies. The NDRC's "14th Five-Year Plan for Circular Economy Development" explicitly calls for strengthening the circular utilization of precious metal resources, while international silver price fluctuations and geopolitical risks are compelling enterprises to enhance supply chain autonomy and controllability. Against this backdrop, the Silver Industry Chain Innovation Conference has emerged, aiming to build a collaborative platform integrating government, industry, academia, research, and end-use applications, to address industry pain points, and to lead the industry toward high-end, intelligent, and internationalized advancement. Innovation Needs and Industry Pain Points Technological Breakthroughs: Silver purification processes, nano-silver material applications, and scrap recycling technologies urgently need breakthroughs to meet the demand for high-purity, low-cost silver in emerging fields such as PV silver paste and flexible electronics. Industry Chain Coordination: Information barriers exist across mining, smelting and processing, and end-use applications segments, requiring digital tools to achieve optimized resource allocation and risk sharing. Green Transformation: Traditional smelting processes are energy-intensive and highly polluting, necessitating the promotion of clean production technologies and circular economy models in response to global carbon neutrality commitments. Market Expansion: Silver's application potential in frontier fields such as hydrogen energy and quantum computing has yet to be fully explored, requiring strengthened cross-industry collaboration and standard-setting. Conference Objectives and Value Themed "Silver Chain Innovation · Intelligent Creation for the Future," this conference brings together global silver industry chain leaders, research institutions, financial institutions, and policymakers for in-depth dialogue around three core topics: technological R&D, supply chain optimization, and market expansion. Through releasing industry white papers, establishing innovation alliances, and signing major projects, the conference aims to drive the silver industry's transformation from "resource dependence" to "technology leadership," providing critical material support for the global energy revolution and digital economy. IKOI S.p.A will attend this grand event to discuss industry development trends with industry peers and jointly propel the silver industry to new heights. Click to register now. Join us to witness and participate in this extraordinary and far-reaching industry event, and together create a brilliant new chapter! IKOI, established in 1977, is a global leader in pyrometallurgical processes for precious metal refineries, mints, and jewelry markets. Currently, it has 3 major product lines: COMPACT integrated fully automatic gold and silver ingot casting systems, FCC FLAMELESS CASTING CHAMBER® fully automatic delivery bar systems, and the acid-free separation technology ALS system that physically separates gold and silver. IKOI's vision is to create safe, efficient, and green precious metal processing methods. IKOI's mission is to bring innovative and sustainable technologies to the precious metal industry. Contact Information Ni Yong 187 0185 9684 Long press to scan the QR code to register now 2026 SMM (7th) Silver Industry Chain Innovation Conference

"Tin" Leads the Future: Industrial Transformation and Value Reshaping in a New Cycle **Conference Background** Currently, the global tin industry stands at a historic turning point, where traditional cyclical logic has been fundamentally disrupted and strategic value has become fully prominent. The tin market in 2026 presents an unprecedented complex pattern and profound transformation: **I. Deep Restructuring of the Supply-Demand Pattern with Unprecedented Elevation of Strategic Attributes** The global static reserve-to-production ratio of tin resources is only 14 years, with scarcity becoming increasingly prominent. The supply side faces "triple pressures": repeated setbacks in Myanmar's production resumptions, continued tightening of Indonesian policies, and elevated geopolitical risks in the DRC — resource constraints have become the new normal. Meanwhile, the demand structure has undergone a fundamental shift, and tin has become a strategic resource connecting traditional manufacturing with the digital future. **II. Price System Breaking Historical Records with the Industrial Ecosystem Facing Reshaping** In early 2026, SHFE tin prices broke through 470,000 yuan/mt, hitting a record high. This price breakthrough is not only a reflection of supply-demand imbalance but also a hallmark of value reassessment for the tin industry. Traditional trade models, risk management systems, and supply chain collaboration approaches all urgently require innovative breakthroughs. **III. Technology-Driven and Green Transformation Fostering a New Symbiotic Ecosystem** Digital and intelligent technologies are deeply empowering the tin industry chain. The global green transformation requires the tin industry to upgrade toward low-carbonisation and circular economy models, making recycled tin recovery and green smelting processes an inevitable path. All segments of the industry chain must shift from competition to collaboration, building an open, resilient, and innovative symbiotic system. Against this backdrop, the 2026 SMM (16th) Tin Industry Chain Conference , to be held on August 19-21 in Changsha, Hunan , will bring together global industry elites for in-depth discussions. Dongguan Tenghui Tin Co., Ltd. will attend this grand event, joining industry peers to explore industry development trends and work together to propel the tin industry to new heights. Click the to register now. Join us in witnessing and participating in this extraordinary and far-reaching industry event, and together create a brilliant new chapter! Founded in 2009, Tenghui Tin is located in Dongguan, Guangdong Province. Since its establishment, the company has been dedicated to refined production and deep processing in the solder tin industry. With high-quality products, outstanding reputation, and excellent services, it has earned widespread industry recognition and has grown into a reliable and trusted producer in the industry. Tenghui Tin boasts a professional management team and production team, and has established long-term, stable cooperative relationships with suppliers across the country. The company adheres to reasonable pricing, trustworthiness, and contract compliance, winning the trust of a broad client base. We possess the most comprehensive production equipment and process flows in the industry, with daily refined tin output reaching 30 mt. We are equipped with advanced detection equipment such as desktop Spectro direct-reading spectrometers and handheld spectral guns, enabling us to provide clients with professional detection services. In terms of corporate culture, Tenghui Tin Industry upholds the mission of "cooperating with sincerity, operating with integrity, pursuing excellence in business, dedicating to environmental protection, and becoming China's most professional non-ferrous metal resource recycling enterprise." We pursue excellence, value every detail, and are committed to providing clients with satisfactory value-added services and high-grade products. Every employee of the company understands that clients are the source of our livelihood, and their attention and patronage are the greatest reward for us. We advocate integrity, innovation, quality, and service, always centering on clients. Through continuously improving our technical capabilities and service quality, we strive to provide clients with the best solutions. Tenghui Tin Industry is not merely a producer, but also a socially responsible enterprise. We are dedicated to environmental protection and hope to make positive contributions to society and the environment through our efforts. Whenever you need, just one supply call and we will come to serve you in the shortest time possible. We welcome all organizations, companies, enterprises, and individuals to come and discuss cooperation and inquire about prices. We look forward to joining hands with you to create a bright future together. Main business: Production and sales of national standard white board refined tin, foil tin, 305 tin materials, standard-compliant tin-copper, 0307 tin materials, 63/37 tin materials, national standard silver board, and other products. Contact Information Liao Huaiqing 13714200395 Liao Guoxiong 13828701483 Long press to scan the code and register now 2026 SMM (16th) Tin Industry Chain Conference

Against the backdrop of the global energy transition and the accelerating development of the digital economy, silver—a strategic metal with both industrial and financial attributes—is undergoing profound transformation across its industry chain. On one hand, demand for silver from emerging sectors such as PV, NEVs, and 5G communications continues to climb, driving the industry toward higher value-added and greener development. On the other hand, resource constraints, technological barriers, and market fluctuations impose higher demands on industry chain resilience, urgently requiring innovation-driven coordinated development across the entire chain. Dual Drivers of Policy and Market Under China's "dual carbon" goals and the global ESG investment wave, the silver industry faces pressing needs for green production, recycling, and low-carbon technologies. The NDRC's "14th Five-Year Plan for Circular Economy Development" explicitly calls for strengthening the recycling of precious metal resources, while international silver price fluctuations and geopolitical risks are compelling enterprises to enhance supply chain autonomy and controllability. Against this backdrop, the Silver Industry Chain Innovation Conference has emerged, aiming to build a collaborative platform integrating government, industry, academia, research, and end-use applications, to address industry pain points, and to lead the industry toward high-end, intelligent, and internationalized development. Innovation Needs and Industry Pain Points Technological Breakthroughs: Silver purification processes, nano-silver material applications, and scrap recycling technologies urgently need breakthroughs to meet the demand for high-purity, low-cost silver in emerging fields such as PV silver paste and flexible electronics. Industry Chain Coordination: Information barriers exist across mining, smelting and processing, and end-use application segments, requiring digital tools to achieve optimized resource allocation and risk sharing. Green Transformation: Traditional smelting processes are energy-intensive and highly polluting, necessitating the promotion of clean production technologies and circular economy models in response to global carbon neutrality commitments. Market Expansion: Silver's application potential in frontier fields such as hydrogen energy and quantum computing has yet to be fully explored, requiring strengthened cross-industry collaboration and standards development. Conference Objectives and Value Themed "Silver Chain Innovation · Intelligent Creation for the Future," this conference brings together global silver industry chain leaders, research institutions, financial institutions, and policymakers for in-depth dialogue on three core topics: technological R&D, supply chain optimization, and market expansion. Through the release of an industry white paper, the establishment of an innovation alliance, and the signing of major projects, the conference aims to drive the silver industry's transformation from "resource dependence" to "technology leadership," providing critical material support for the global energy revolution and digital economy. Quanda New Materials (Ningbo) Co., Ltd. / Ningbo Haoshun Precious Metals Co., Ltd. will attend this grand event to discuss industry development trends with industry peers and jointly propel the silver industry to new heights. Click to register now. Join us in witnessing and participating in this extraordinary and far-reaching industry event, and together create a brilliant new chapter! Quanda New Materials (Ningbo) Co., Ltd. was founded in December 2023 by Mr. Chen Yongda, who has over twenty years of experience in the silver industry, building upon his existing silver distribution business to align with the major trend of silver consumption upgrading in the new era. With a registered capital of 15 million yuan, the company is located in the scenic Xiangshan Chemical Economic and Technological Development Zone in Ningbo. It is a fully automated factory enterprise specializing in the production of silver nitrate using silver as the primary raw material, with a designed capacity of 5,000 mt/year, and is a key supported enterprise of the Xiangshan Chemical Economic and Technological Development Zone in Ningbo. The company boasts strong technical capabilities and an experienced professional team, with advanced production processes and equipment. Relying on five management systems, it maintains strict quality detection procedures and has established an internal R&D center staffed with dozens of mid-to-senior-level professional and technical personnel. The company's product quality is consistently among the leading levels in the domestic peer industry, with products widely applied in military enterprises, the electronics industry, the PV industry, aerospace, and other fields. We are committed to providing clients with more value-added services through quality products, efficient services, and reasonable prices. Contact Information Ms. Shi 13566055239 Address: No. 52 Wentao Road, (Baiyanshan) Park, Xiangshan County, Ningbo City, Zhejiang Province Ningbo Haoshun Precious Metals Co., Ltd. is an innovative modern commercial distribution enterprise primarily engaged in the supply of precious metal silver raw materials in China and customized silver crafts services. It is a standing council member of the China General Chamber of Commerce and a vice president unit of the Gold and Silver Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNIA). Since its establishment and operation, the company has consistently adhered to the business philosophy of "being down-to-earth, operating with integrity, and achieving mutual benefit." It upholds the business cooperation principle of "creating value together, sharing results together, and winning the future together." After years of development and growth, the company has established long-term and stable cooperative relationships with multiple well-known silver mine enterprises in China. Its supply and sales channels have become stable, and it has selected a group of strategic partners with strength, credibility, quality, and service orientation. It has cultivated a dedicated, responsible, pragmatic, and efficient business team, providing a strong guarantee for the company's steady and high-quality development. Its industry reputation, market influence, and corporate soft power are all gradually strengthening. Its spot silver trading volume has been at the industry-leading level for consecutive years. A modern commercial distribution enterprise with a maturing management mechanism is emerging. Looking ahead, Ningbo Haoshun Precious Metals Co., Ltd. is expected to align with the major trend of silver consumption upgrading in the new era, proactively innovate and adapt, employ flexible and elastic trading models, adopt a strict risk control system, and leverage timely and efficient services. The company will strive to anticipate clients' needs and fulfill their requirements, endeavoring to provide clients with diversified and more value-added services. As the ancients said, " When one calls with the wind at his back, his voice is no louder, yet it is heard more clearly. Ningbo Haoshun Precious Metals Co., Ltd. will stay true to its original mission of serving the National Silver Enterprise Annual Conference. On the road ahead, it will willingly serve as a practitioner of honest and trustworthy trading in the silver industry market, a driver of integrated coexistence and win-win cooperation among enterprises, and a contributor to the steady, prosperous, and sustainable development of the industry. Contact Information Mr. Yao 13817213537 Tel: 0574-88053076 Fax: 0574-88053796 Address: Room 151, Building 22, No. 818 Qiming Road, Yinzhou District, Ningbo, Zhejiang Province Press and hold to scan the QR code to register now 2026 SMM (7th) Silver Industry Chain Innovation Conference

Around May 23, 2026, import and export data for cobalt and lithium battery industry chain-related products in April were released in a concentrated manner. Data showed that China's spodumene imports in April reached 758,000 mt in physical content, down 9.5% MoM and up 21.7% YoY. Lithium carbonate imports, China imported 32,650 mt of lithium carbonate in April, up 9% MoM and up 15% YoY....... SMM compiled the import and export data for battery materials, as detailed below: Upstream Lithium Concentrates In April 2026, China's spodumene imports reached 758,000 mt in physical content, down 9.5% MoM and up 21.7% YoY, equivalent to approximately 63,000 mt of LCE. Customs data showed that April spodumene imports pulled back MoM from March, reaching 758,000 mt in physical content. By source country, Australian ore port arrivals returned to relatively normal levels, with over 350,000 mt arriving this month, up 38.9% MoM; Zimbabwe's earlier shipments arrived in the month at 102,000 mt, down 9.2% MoM; South Africa and Nigeria saw some contraction in monthly port arrivals, while ore from Mali had almost no notable port arrivals this month due to shipping schedule impacts. Notably, spodumene ore powder sold by Brazil in early 2026 arrived at ports this month, driving a significant increase in port arrivals from this country. Additionally, after SMM screening, the month's incoming ore was equivalent to 63,000 mt of LCE. Among the incoming ore, lithium concentrates accounted for 67%, with the share edging down MoM, mainly because apart from Australia , ore from other source countries contained some relatively low-grade ore. Source: China Customs, compiled by SMM Spodumene concentrates (CIF China) spot pricing, according to SMM spot quotes, spot prices for spodumene concentrates (CIF China) fluctuated upward in April. As of April 30, the spot price for spodumene concentrates (CIF China) rose to $2,540/mt, up $221/mt from the month-end March price of $2,313/mt, a gain of 9.81%. According to SMM, lithium carbonate prices continued to rise in April, and spodumene concentrates prices rose in tandem with salt prices, with gains exceeding those of lithium carbonate itself, causing non-integrated enterprises that purchased externally spodumene concentrates to suffer losses, with spot profitability remaining in deficit. In April, spot circulation of lepidolite concentrates relatively eased. Meanwhile, as lithium carbonate prices rose, processing fees for non-integrated enterprises also increased accordingly, preserving a certain profit margin for their processing operations and enabling these enterprises to achieve spot profitability. However, recently, spodumene concentrates prices adjusted in tandem with lithium carbonate price fluctuations, and the price transaction center shifted downward. According to SMM's latest findings, disrupted by rumors of production resumptions at Jiangxi mines this week, lithium carbonate futures and spot prices declined, further dragging down the overall transaction center. Currently, lithium mines showed a weak willingness to make shipments, and transactions were mostly concentrated between traders and buyers. Port lithium ore inventory continued to decline. Going forward, attention should still be paid to the potential tight lithium ore supply triggered by high operating rates in the lithium chemicals industry, and lithium ore prices were expected to hold up well. Lithium Carbonate According to customs data, China imported 32,650 mt of lithium carbonate in April, up 9% MoM and 15% YoY. Of this, 21,000 mt was imported from Chile (65% of total imports), 9,555 mt from Argentina (29%), and 1,100 mt from Indonesia (3%). From January to April, China's cumulative lithium carbonate imports reached 116,000 mt, up 47% YoY cumulatively. In April, China exported 370 mt of lithium carbonate, down 17% MoM and 50% YoY. From January to April, China's cumulative lithium carbonate exports totaled 1,886 mt, up 7% YoY cumulatively. In April, China imported 17,942 mt of lithium sulfate, up 9% MoM and 296% YoY. From January to April, China's cumulative lithium sulfate imports reached 58,900 mt, up 121% YoY cumulatively. According to SMM spot quotes, spot lithium carbonate prices generally trended upward in April. As of April 30, the spot lithium carbonate price rose to 177,000 yuan/mt, up 14,000 yuan/mt or 8.59% from 163,000 yuan/mt on March 31. According to SMM analysis, China's lithium carbonate prices followed a "V-shaped" trend of first declining then rising in April, with the monthly average price up 6% MoM. In the first ten days, geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East intensified global risk-aversion sentiment, causing non-ferrous metals and lithium carbonate prices to fluctuate downward. In the mid-to-late period, driven by Zimbabwe's export ban, Jiangxi mine license renewals, and rising costs, prices began to rebound and fluctuate upward, with the month-end price center shifting notably higher. Upstream and downstream purchasing remained stagnant, with the psychological price spread widening week by week. Upstream producers held prices firm and held back from selling, maintaining high offer prices; downstream buyers made just-in-time procurement only, with psychological price levels concentrated at 155,000-175,000 yuan/mt, restocking on dips only when prices fell rapidly. In April, battery-grade spot lithium carbonate prices dropped to around 155,500 yuan/mt in the first ten days, then rallied all the way to 177,000 yuan/mt by month-end. As of May 29, domestic battery-grade spot lithium carbonate was quoted at 174,000-181,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 177,500 yuan/mt. Battery Materials LiPF6 According to China Customs data, in April 2026, China's cumulative LiPF6 exports totaled approximately 868 mt, down approximately 80.9% MoM, while cumulative LiPF6 imports were approximately 96 mt. Export side, China's LiPF6 exports in April 2026 were approximately 868 mt, down approximately 80.9% MoM from March and down approximately 33.2% YoY. Specifically, as the VAT rebate policy for LiPF6 exports was officially abolished starting April 1, 2026, enterprises rushed to export in March in advance, and ex-China electrolyte enterprises built up certain inventory, leading to MoM declines in China's exports to multiple major destination countries in April. Among them, exports to Poland were 337.5 mt (down approximately 80.4% MoM), South Korea 81.804 mt (down approximately 92.56% MoM), Czech Republic 150 mt (down approximately 67.43% MoM), and the US 101.908 mt (down approximately 61.7% MoM). Only exports to Japan saw an increase — exports to Japan were 191.37 mt, up approximately 50.77% MoM. Artificial Graphite In April 2026, China's artificial graphite imports were 757 mt, up 12.4% MoM and down 32.9% YoY. Average import price side, in April 2026, the average import price of China's artificial graphite was 75,941 yuan/mt, up 23.1% MoM and up 14.6% YoY. In April 2026, China's artificial graphite exports were 45,895 mt, up 22.3% MoM and down 21% YoY. Average export price side, in April 2026, the average export price of China's artificial graphite was 9,214 yuan/mt, down 6.6% MoM and up 0.26% YoY. Exports from the top five provinces rose 21% MoM from the previous month, with two provinces seeing export growth exceeding 35% MoM and another province achieving a MoM increase of 20%. Import market, downstream power battery enterprise orders in China gradually recovered in April. Combined with tight spot capacity at leading anode enterprises, restocking demand was released, boosting artificial graphite imports to rebound from weakness on a MoM basis. However, import volumes remained on a YoY decline, primarily because China's anode industry had ample overall capacity with supply still in a surplus pattern. Domestic self-sufficiency continued to strengthen, and the industry's reliance on imported raw materials and finished products steadily declined. Flake Graphite In April 2026, China's flake graphite imports were 3,178 mt, down 19% MoM and down 45% YoY. Data source: China Customs, SMM In April 2026, China's flake graphite exports totalled 4,093 mt, down 50% MoM and 54% YoY. Export market, the official cancellation of the flake graphite export tax rebate policy this month directly squeezed the profit margins of foreign trade enterprises, significantly dampening overall export willingness across the market. Meanwhile, the approval pace for flake graphite export licences slowed down, hindering foreign trade shipment processes. Combined with weak ex-China end-use demand, multiple bearish factors converged to directly boost a sharp decline in industry export volumes. The import market also continued to weaken. Goods originally destined for exports were redirected to the domestic sales market, making China's local supply increasingly abundant. Market enthusiasm for import procurement was insufficient, ultimately causing imports to decline in tandem this month. Phosphate Ore May 20, 2026, from customs data. In April 2026, China's phosphate ore imports were 207,000 mt. April imports rose 13.5% from 182,000 mt in March. The total import value in April was $19.741 million, up 35.7% MoM from $14.552 million in March. The average unit price was $95.5/mt, up 19.6% from $79.9/mt in March. Import commentary: In May, Egypt's phosphate ore exports faced "policy tightening and weakening demand". On May 13, Egypt's Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resources announced it would no longer sign any new phosphate ore export contracts. Previously, Egyptian Prime Minister Mustafa Madbouly stated clearly at a meeting on May 10 that the government was pushing a transition from raw material exports to the manufacturing of high-value-added products such as phosphate fertiliser. Already signed long-term contracts would not be affected. This is expected to push up import prices and may affect import volumes going forward. Cobalt Cobalt Hydrometallurgy Intermediate Products In April 2026, China's cobalt hydrometallurgy intermediate products imports were approximately 1,247 mt in physical content, down 26% MoM and 98% YoY. Of this, imports from the DRC were approximately 945 mt in physical content, down 43% MoM and 98% YoY. In April 2026, the average import price of China's cobalt hydrometallurgy intermediate products was $17,187/mt in physical content, up 2.63% MoM. It was reported that most miners had completed Q4 2025 quota approvals, but Q1 2026 quota approvals were again delayed due to issues with sampling, detection, and other procedural processes, resulting in lower approval efficiency. Additionally, DRC currently faced tight transportation capacity. For economic reasons, fleets prioritized transporting oil products and chemicals that were in short supply for production, followed by other metals with shorter turnover cycles, and cobalt among non-ferrous metals came last, meaning cobalt transportation capacity faced significant challenges. Constrained by the above factors, miners primarily focused on building in-transit inventory and had not yet concentrated on booking vessels, so the timing of large-scale intermediate product arrivals at ports was likely to continue being delayed. Unwrought Cobalt China's unwrought cobalt imports in April 2026 were approximately 1,334 mt, up 39% MoM and up 59% YoY. In April, refined cobalt imports mainly came from Indonesia, Russia, and Madagascar, with imports of 462 mt, 457 mt, and 182 mt respectively. The main reason for the increase this month was that domestic smelters lacked intermediate product raw materials and imported cobalt slabs and cobalt briquettes for re-dissolution to ensure normal production. In terms of average import prices, the average import price of unwrought cobalt in China in April 2026 was $52,724/mt, up 4.72% MoM. Cumulative imports from January to April 2026 totaled 5,916 mt, up 153% YoY cumulatively. Export side, China's unwrought cobalt exports in April 2026 were approximately 218 mt, down 47% MoM and down 95% YoY. By country, China's exports to the US dropped significantly, with April exports to the US at 35 mt, down 87.5% MoM. The main reason was that US alloy-grade refined cobalt demand pulled back in April, and ex-China branded refined cobalt was already sufficient to meet regional demand, with some refined cobalt traders redirecting destinations from the US back to China. In terms of average export prices, the average export price of unwrought cobalt in China in April 2026 was $54,590/mt, up 5.80% MoM. Cumulative exports from January to April 2026 totaled 1,792 mt, down 76% YoY cumulatively.

In May, the global aluminum market continued the core pattern of LME outperforming SHFE with divergent trends. The most-traded SHFE aluminum contract moved sideways in the doldrums, while LME aluminum maintained strength supported by low inventory and geopolitical premiums, with both seeing slight corrections at month-end. This month's market-driving logic revolved around Middle East ceasefire negotiations, rising expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes, divergence in inventory in and outside China, and accelerating export transmission, further highlighting the divergence between domestic and overseas aluminum price trends. The SHFE/LME aluminum price ratio declined further from the April average of 7.03 to the May average of 6.66, with the inverted price spread between domestic and overseas markets widening, as the trend of overseas aluminum prices outperforming SHFE aluminum continued to deepen. May Aluminum Price Review: Similar Pace but Intensifying Divergence in Strength China · The Most-Traded SHFE Aluminum Contract The contract opened low at around 24,800 yuan/mt at the beginning of the month. After the holiday, it pulled back rapidly due to high domestic inventory and weaker-than-expected downstream demand, hitting the monthly low of 24,075 yuan/mt on May 7. In mid-month, it rebounded to 24,620 yuan/mt driven by positive signals from the China-US meeting. In the latter part of the month, it pulled back to 24,375 yuan/mt as ceasefire expectations heated up combined with off-season drag. Ex-China · LME Aluminum The contract opened at $3,480/mt at the beginning of the month. In mid-month, it rallied to $3,680/mt (the monthly high and a four-year high) supported by supply disruptions and continued destocking. At month-end, it corrected to $3,628/mt, impacted by news that a US-Iran ceasefire agreement was 95% reached. In terms of price-driving factors, geopolitics remained the core common variable for aluminum prices in and outside China this month. Production cuts in the Middle East and shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz continued to provide a shortage premium for LME aluminum. The price divergence stemmed from dual differences in macro policy and fundamentals—slow destocking from high inventory levels in China constrained SHFE aluminum's rebound space, while historically low inventory and a high premium structure outside China provided strong support for LME aluminum prices. Core Inventory Indicators: Extreme Divergence Between Domestic and Overseas Inventory with Contrasting Destocking Pace China · Gradual Decline from High Levels, Pressure Persists Social inventory began to pull back from the high of 1.456 million mt at the beginning of May, reaching approximately 1.401 million mt by month-end, with only about 55,000 mt destocked over the entire month. The destocking pace was slow, with inventory remaining at a near six-year high for the same period. SHFE warrants recorded 485,500 mt on May 29, still showing inventory buildup on a weekly basis, confirming ample spot supply in China. Ex-China · 20-Year Low, Structural Deficit Becomes Evident LME total inventory declined from approximately 363,000 mt at the beginning of the month to 338,000 mt at month-end, a decrease of approximately 25,000 mt over the month, with inventory levels at historically extreme lows. LME aluminum Cash-3M premiums closed at $92.53/mt at month-end, widening significantly from approximately $29/mt at the beginning of the month. Japan's Q3 spot premiums rose, premiums in Europe and the US continued to climb, and the rigid supply gap outside China provided sustained and strong support for LME aluminum. Macro and Fundamentals Intertwined: Geopolitical Dynamics and Rate Hike Expectations Dominating Sentiment Geopolitical Variables: Repeated Ceasefire Negotiations At the beginning of the month, the US military launched airstrikes on southern Iran, with military frictions between the two sides recurring. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remained disrupted, and geopolitical risk premiums climbed. At month-end, a US-Iran framework agreement was reportedly 95% complete, and a 60-day temporary ceasefire draft emerged. Expectations for the resumption of strait navigation warmed, and geopolitical premiums converged significantly. On the morning of May 28, both SHFE aluminum and LME aluminum plunged. US Fed Expectations: Hawkish Pressure US April CPI came in at 3.4% YoY, with core PCE reaching 2.8%. Inflation stickiness, compounded by Middle East conflicts pushing oil prices above $90/barrel, led hawkish US Fed officials to release signals of "raising rates at any time." Market expectations for a 25bp rate hike within the year surged abruptly, and a stronger US dollar continued to weigh on the demand outlook for non-ferrous metals. IV. Current Core Market Trades and Arbitrage Strategies (Including Divergence in Capital Behavior) Based on the current SHFE and LME fundamentals, inventory pace, and LME curve structure, the aluminum market overall exhibits a cautious unidirectional and arbitrage-dominated trading pattern. In particular, SHFE-LME cross-market reverse arbitrage (selling SHFE and buying LME) has become the core market play. Capital behavior among market participants has shown clear divergence, mainly falling into three categories: 1. Early-positioning capital (light long positions in reverse arbitrage) Some trading capital has positioned reverse arbitrage ahead of time based on the logic that China's inventory inflection point has already appeared. The core expectation of such capital is that as China's inventory gradually enters a destocking channel, accelerated destocking is highly likely to follow, rapidly easing China's high inventory pressure. The weak SHFE aluminum pattern is expected to be corrected, and the depressed SHFE-LME ratio has clear room for recovery, warranting early light positioning to capture the ratio rebound. 2. Wait-and-see cautious capital (staying on the sidelines for now) The majority of market capital has maintained a wait-and-see stance, with two core concerns: First, China is currently only experiencing slow destocking, and its sustainability is questionable during the off-season, as inventory pressure has not been substantially cleared and SHFE aluminum lacks sufficient rebound momentum. Second, LME is currently in a deep backwardation structure, making roll and extension costs for LME aluminum bulls extremely high, with significant cost erosion and high open interest pressure for holding long-term reverse arbitrage positions. Combined with the entrenched short-term pattern of LME outperforming SHFE, the price spread still risks further widening. Therefore, this segment of capital has chosen to wait for confirmed signals of accelerated destocking in China before entering the market. 3. Previously trapped capital (open interest under pressure, caught in a dilemma) Some positions that were established earlier to set up SHFE-LME reverse arbitrage are currently slightly underwater. Recently, LME has been continuously driven higher by geopolitical risks while SHFE has been range-bound and weak, with the divergence between LME outperforms SHFE intensifying, causing the ratio to remain persistently low and unrealized losses to emerge. Meanwhile, LME contango fees have risen sharply, long positions carrying costs continue to increase, and the pressure of holding trapped positions has further intensified. In the short term, these positions are caught in a dilemma, highly dependent on the subsequent pace of China's inventory destocking to restore the spread. Overall, the sole core inflection variable for SHFE-LME reverse arbitrage is currently the pace of domestic inventory destocking. Once weekly inventory drawdowns continue to widen and accelerated destocking is confirmed, it will directly drive a reversal in three types of capital behavior: sidelined capital entering the market en masse, trapped positions getting unwound, and early-entry positions realizing profits, triggering a rapid recovery in the ratio. Looking ahead to June, the aluminum market's core focus centers on three dimensions: first, whether the US-Iran ceasefire agreement can be formally signed and the pace of resuming navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, which will directly determine the extent of geopolitical premium convergence — if the agreement materializes and Middle Eastern aluminum supply gradually recovers, the prior support logic for LME aluminum faces correction risk; second, whether domestic inventory destocking can accelerate — continued export growth and import suppression will keep driving destocking, and the magnitude of destocking will determine SHFE aluminum's upside elasticity. The US Fed's June FOMC meeting is highly likely to keep rates unchanged, but a hawkish tone and sticky inflation will continue to suppress interest rate cut expectations, with a stronger US dollar maintaining sustained pressure on non-ferrous metals. Overall, the aluminum market in June is expected to continue the pattern where LME outperforms SHFE, though the degree of divergence is likely to narrow. LME aluminum is expected to hover at highs amid the tug-of-war between geopolitical premium convergence and rigid ex-China supply deficits, with downside room constrained by low inventory and high premiums. [ Data source disclaimer: Data other than publicly available information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice. ] Data source: SMM

[SMM Steel] Tata Steel expects India’s steel demand to grow by 7-8% annually over the next 20 years, supported by infrastructure development and industrialization. The company plans to expand its domestic steelmaking capacity to over 40 million tonnes per year and strengthen its presence in the Maharashtra market. More than 60-65% of Tata Steel’s annual capex budget of Rs 20,000 crore will continue to be allocated to India. Meanwhile, the company is enhancing supply chain diversification, scenario planning, and hedging strategies to manage geopolitical risks, while focusing on cost and commercial improvements in Europe amid weak demand and high energy costs.