SMM Jul 11 news: Metals market: Overnight, base metals on the overseas and China markets showed mixed performance. LME aluminum led the losses with a 2.07% decline, while SHFE nickel led the gains with a 0.78% increase. The % changes of other metals were all within 1%. The alumina main contract fell 0.4%, and the cast aluminum main contract fell 0.78%. Overnight, ferrous metals all fell except for stainless steel and iron ore. Stainless steel edged up 0.03%, iron ore rose 0.27%, and both hot-rolled coil and rebar edged down. For coking coal and coke, coking coal fell 1.03%, and coke fell 1.15%. Overnight in precious metals, COMEX gold fell 0.29%, with a weekly gain of 0.08%. COMEX silver fell 0.74%, with a weekly decline of 1.25%. In China, SHFE gold fell 0.56%, with a weekly decline of 0.83%. SHFE silver fell 0.58%, with a weekly decline of 2.63%. HSBC lowered its average gold price forecasts for 2026 and 2027, citing expectations for a hawkish shift in the US Fed's monetary policy and persistent pressure from a stronger US dollar. The bank cut its 2026 average price forecast to $4,560/oz from $4,864, and its 2027 forecast to $4,925 from $5,000. HSBC expects gold prices to fluctuate in a $3,800-$4,700 range for the rest of 2026 and settle near $4,750 at year-end. (Wall Street CN) Overnight closing prices as of 7:17 AM Jul 11: Macro Front China: [State Council Executive Meeting: Boost Scaled Development of Emerging Pillar Industries Along Entire Chain, Strengthen Basic Research and Key Software/Hardware R&D] According to CCTV, Premier Li Qiang presided over a State Council Executive Meeting to discuss work on cultivating emerging pillar industries. The meeting noted the need to boost the scaled development of emerging pillar industries along the entire chain, strengthen basic research and key software/hardware development, and accelerate technology iteration and ecosystem improvement. It also called for optimized regulatory models and guidance for local authorities to pursue differentiated development based on local conditions. (Jin10 Data App) [Ministry of Commerce, General Administration of Customs: Impose Temporary Export Prohibition on Helium] The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs issued an announcement stating that, in accordance with the Foreign Trade Law of the People's Republic of China, they have decided to impose temporary export prohibition management on helium (Customs Commodity Code: 2804290010). This announcement took effect on the date of its issue, and subsequent adjustments will be announced separately. (Jin10 Data App) [National Electricity Load Hits Record High of 1.518 Billion kW] This year, continuous new-quality development of the national economy and steady improvement in end-user electrification levels, coupled with recent high-temperature weather across many parts of the country, have seen electricity loads climb rapidly. July 10, China’s nationwide electricity load hit a record high for the first time this year, reaching a peak of 1.518 billion kW, an increase of 10 million kW over the previous record. Since the start of summer, the power grid in south China, along with multiple provincial-level grids including Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan, Ningxia, Gansu, Fujian, and Shaanxi, has collectively set new load records over 20 times. The repeated record highs in electricity demand this year have been jointly boosted by three main factors. First, industrial electricity consumption grew steadily. High-tech manufacturing and high-end equipment manufacturing flourished, while electricity use by emerging industries such as NEVs, energy storage, and computing equipment continued to expand. Second, electricity consumption in the service sector grew relatively quickly. Since the beginning of this year, electricity consumption growth rates for charging and battery swapping services and internet data services both exceeded 40%. Third, high temperatures drove up electricity loads. As living standards continue to improve, the proportion of air-conditioning cooling load nationwide approached 30%, exceeding 40% in some provinces. (National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC)) [National Energy Administration: Non-fossil energy consumption share to increase by an average of about 1 ppt annually by 2028] The National Energy Administration (NEA) issued the *Energy Sector Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Action Plan (2026–2028)*. The plan proposes that by 2028, the share of non-fossil energy consumption should increase by an average of about 1 percentage point annually; the coal consumption rate of coal-fired power units should be reasonably controlled, with the proportion of coal power capacity meeting current benchmark energy efficiency standards striving to increase by 15 percentage points; a batch of zero-carbon and low-carbon coal mining areas and oil zones should be established; support should be given to building a batch of zero-carbon industrial parks, achieving significant progress in energy conservation and carbon reduction in key industries, and continuously improving the level of green energy use. The plan also proposes vigorously promoting energy conservation and carbon reduction in thermal power. It will steadily and orderly shut down a batch of 300,000 kW class and below coal-fired power units that meet the conditions, and encourage the construction of replacement units that meet next-generation coal power standards ; promote the implementation of a batch of super (ultra) critical cross-generation upgrade retrofits for 600,000 kW class coal-fired power units. Support the implementation of zero-carbon and low-carbon fuel co-firing and Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS) retrofits for units that meet the conditions, with carbon emission levels per kWh after retrofitting expected to be reduced by about 10%. Implement a batch of coal power, gas power, and new energy integration projects, supporting coal power and new energy integration to achieve carbon reduction effects through methods such as coupling thermal storage for peak shaving and peak load supply, and integrated collection and transmission. (Jin10 Data APP) US Dollar Side: Overnight, the US dollar index edged up 0.03% to 100.96, gaining 0.05% for the week. The US Fed’s semi-annual report showed that overall US economic activity maintained steady expansion in 2026, mainly driven by high-tech investment and government spending. Factory output grew strongly due to AI-related data center investment, with production capacity continuing to improve. However, the housing market stalled, and external economic growth was sluggish, weighed down by the Middle East conflict and tariffs. The labour market was generally stable, with both wages and productivity growing, but slowing immigration led to a decline in labour supply, and small businesses and households still faced relatively tight credit conditions. Inflation remained elevated and rose further in the spring, while asset prices were above historical norms. The financial system was sound overall, bank reserves were ample, and the private credit market operated normally despite some redemption pressures. Long-term inflation expectations were basically anchored near the 2% target, though uncertainty from the Iran conflict remained a major risk. (Jin10 Data APP) The report noted that the US Fed's preferred Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index remained about double the 2% target as of May this year. This is also the first monetary policy report released since the new Fed Chairman Warsh took office. Warsh will appear before House and Senate committees next Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively, for his semi-annual routine testimony review on monetary policy. (Wallstreetcn) According to CME "FedWatch": The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 66.3%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 33.7%. For September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 31.0%, a cumulative 25 basis point hike is 51.1%, and a cumulative 50 basis point hike is 18.0%. (Jin10 Data APP) Other Currencies: Reuters, citing three sources familiar with the Bank of Japan's thinking, reported that the BOJ plans to keep interest rates unchanged in July but will maintain its policy guidance, committing to continue the process of rate hikes. One source said, "Downside risks to the economy have diminished somewhat as oil prices fall. But elevated costs from past imports will continue to put upward pressure on prices." Two other sources voiced similar views. They also said the BOJ may revise up its economic growth forecast for fiscal 2026 in its July quarterly report and continue to watch for inflation overshoot risks, as cost increases from yen weakness and strong AI demand partially offset some of the impact from falling oil prices. (Jin10 Data APP) ING economists Marieke Blom and Amrita Naik Nimbalkar said in a report that if the Eurozone's savings rate were to fall to pre-pandemic levels, it could unleash demand for goods and services worth about 1% of GDP. In Q1 this year, household savings accounted for 14.3% of disposable income, higher than the pre-pandemic five-year average of 12.5%. In the US, the savings rate in the final quarter of 2025 was 10.2%, suggesting a similar level could boost Eurozone GDP by nearly 2%. Consumption is expected to remain weak, as higher mortgage rates, slowing credit growth, and precautionary savings weigh on spending. However, the shift from bank deposits to investments could lay the groundwork for stronger spending and domestic demand in the coming years, they said. (Jin10 Data APP) Macro Front: Next week in China, data releases will include China's June trade balance in dollar terms, trade balance in yuan terms, June import and export YoY rates, Q2 GDP YoY rate, June total retail sales of consumer goods YoY, June industrial value added of enterprises above designated size YoY, June total electricity consumption YoY, and June total electricity consumption. In the US, data due includes the US June unadjusted CPI YoY, seasonally adjusted CPI MoM, seasonally adjusted core CPI MoM, unadjusted core CPI YoY, June PPI YoY, June PPI MoM, July New York Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index, initial jobless claims for the week ending July 11, June retail sales MoM, July Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, June NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, weekly change in ADP employment figures for the week ending June 27, July NAHB Housing Market Index, May business inventories MoM, June pending home sales index MoM, June annualized housing starts, June total building permits, June import price index MoM, June industrial production MoM, preliminary July one-year inflation expectations, and preliminary July University of Michigan consumer sentiment index. For the Eurozone, releases include May industrial production MoM, May seasonally adjusted trade balance, May seasonally adjusted current account, final June CPI YoY, and final June CPI MoM. For the UK, data includes the May three-month GDP MoM rate, May manufacturing output MoM, May seasonally adjusted goods trade balance, and May industrial production MoM. Canada's May wholesale sales MoM and the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision on July 15 will also be released. Furthermore, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on H1 2026 import and export situation; the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will release the monthly residential sales price report for 70 large and medium-sized cities; the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on national economic performance; the NEA will release total electricity consumption data around the 15th of each month. A new round of domestic refined oil price adjustments will commence. Fed Governor Waller will speak; Fed Chairman Warsh will testify before the House Financial Services Committee at the hearing on the "US Fed's Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report"; 2027 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will participate in a fireside chat; FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams will speak; Fed Chairman Warsh will testify before the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee at the hearing on the "US Fed's Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report". On July 16, the US Fed will release its Beige Book on economic conditions; 2028 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Musalem will speak; 2026 FOMC voting member and Dallas Fed President Logan will speak; Fed Vice Chairman Jefferson will speak on the economy and monetary policy. Bank of England Governor Bailey will speak; the Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision and monetary policy report, with Governor Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Rogers holding a monetary policy press conference. Crude Oil Side: Overnight, oil prices on both sides of the Atlantic fell, with US crude down 0.79% and Brent crude down 1.42%. On a weekly basis, US crude rose 4.11% and Brent rose 4.3%, together snapping a four-week losing streak. The market is currently still pinning hopes on when navigation through the Strait of Hormuz can resume. Notably, after the escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran this week, the weekly crude oil price shook off the previous four-week losing streak, rising more than 4% for the week again. According to CCTV News, on Friday, July 10, local time, US President Trump posted on his social media platform "Truth Social" that Iran wants to continue "negotiations" with the US, and the US has agreed to continue negotiations. Trump also stated that the US has made it clear to Iran that the ceasefire is over. Subsequently, Xinhua News Agency, citing US media reports, said that a new round of US-Iran negotiations might be held in Switzerland next week. However, according to Iranian media Fars News, sources close to the Iranian negotiating team said claims that a new round of talks between Iran and the US would be held next week were untrue. According to CCTV, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said on Friday that Iran has never requested negotiations with the US, but agreed to a visit by mediators to Iran. (Wallstreetcn) A head office reporter learned from Iranian sources that Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi will lead a diplomatic delegation to visit Oman on the 11th. During the visit, the two sides plan to engage in dialogue and exchange views on bilateral relations and the regional situation, particularly the current state of the Strait of Hormuz. (CCTV) Data released by international market service agency Kepler on the 10th showed that on July 9, the number of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz area dropped to 22 from 30 the previous day, marking two consecutive days of declining traffic in the strait. Kepler said this data includes both commercial and non-commercial vessels, with commercial vessel traffic slightly higher than non-commercial. "The renewed escalation of the military confrontation between the US and Iran has weakened market confidence that diplomatic efforts can bring stability to the situation in the near term." (Xinhua News Agency) Barclays: Risks around our Brent crude oil price forecasts of $96 per barrel for 2026 and $85 for 2027 are fairly balanced. This week, OPEC will release its monthly oil market report (specific release time to be determined, generally published around 18:00-21:00 Beijing time).

China's sulphuric acid market remains stagnant at high levels, with intensifying regional divergence [SMM Sulphuric Acid Weekly Review]

Silica: This week, silica market prices remained largely stable. Supply side, some producing regions were affected by rainy weather, limiting the pace of mining and transportation and resulting in a slight tightening of local cargo supply. However, ample inventories accumulated earlier in the industry kept the overall supply base loose, and the short-term disruptions have yet to exert a notable impact on the broader market. Demand side, as the southwest rainy season continued to advance, silicon metal plants resumed production, driving a MoM increase in overall silicon plant operating rates. Consequently, restocking demand from silicon plants for raw material silica improved marginally, supporting a modest improvement in just-in-time procurement for silica. Nevertheless, sentiment for pushing for lower prices remained strong among silicon plant buyers, which prompted silica's upside room. Silicon Coal: This week, silicon coal market prices remained stable. Specifically, silicon granule coal in Gansu was quoted at 1,140 yuan/mt, and silicon mixed coal at 1,060 yuan/mt; silicon granule coal in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia was at 1,340 yuan/mt; Xinjiang non-caking silicon coal was at 855 yuan/mt; and Xinjiang caking silicon coal was at 1,400 yuan/mt. Supply side, the silicon coal market exhibited a clear divergence pattern: driven by production resumptions at silicon metal enterprises during the southwest rainy season, some coal processing plants that produce based on sales slightly raised their operating rates, with production schedules adjusting in tandem with downstream just-in-time procurement. Meanwhile, other plants that had experienced slowing shipments and accumulated high inventories focused primarily on destocking. Demand side, according to July production schedule statistics for silicon metal, silicon metal production increased MoM, and just-in-time procurement for silicon coal is therefore expected to edge up in tandem. Petroleum Coke: This week, trading performance in China's petroleum coke market was mediocre. Sentiment for low-sulphur petroleum coke improved, with prices recovering slightly; mid- and high-sulphur petroleum coke saw sluggish downstream procurement, with prices consolidating lower. The overall market price center edged down slightly. Trading sentiment for Formosa Plastics petroleum coke was subdued, and port spot cargo offers were basically stable, with mainstream transaction prices holding at 1,300-1,350 yuan/mt. According to SMM monitoring, as of Thursday this week, the Shandong 4# petroleum coke price index was reported at 1,868.08 yuan/mt, down 2.14% WoW from last Thursday. Supply side, concentrated refinery maintenance in July was gradually winding down and resuming production, which, coupled with high port inventories, left the overall market supply relatively ample. Demand side, just-in-time procurement from the carbon used in aluminum production sector formed a bottom support, while purchasing enthusiasm from negative electrode material enterprises improved slightly. In the short term, market divergence across petroleum coke grades is expected to persist, with the overall market price center likely to drift lower. Electrode: This week, prices of electrode used in silicon production continued to operate at low levels. Demand side, production resumptions at silicon metal plants during the southwest rainy season continued to advance, with overall operating rates likely to rise further in July, prompting a modest recovery in raw material procurement by silicon plants. However, the silicon metal market remained in a downturn, with silicon plants exhibiting a strong desire to bargain down prices. Supply side, electrode producers faced inventory pressure while contending with intense competition for shipments. Such a supply-demand dynamic is insufficient to support prices. Therefore, in the short term, electrode used in silicon production still lacks upward driving momentum and is expected to continue its low-level operating trend. If you would like more detailed market information and trends, or have other information needs, please call 021-20707889.

[2026 H1 Silicon Metal Market Review and Outlook: Cost Support and Demand Pressure Narrowing Price Fluctuations] Price side, reviewing H1 2026, due to low silicon metal capacity utilization rate, limited demand growth, and the fact that silicon metal had already been running at a low level, under cost support from below and demand-limited suppression from above, the spot price fluctuation range of silicon metal was significantly narrowed. According to SMM price data, the fluctuation range of spot silicon metal prices was 38% in 2025, while in H1 2026 it was narrowed to within 5%. Futures price side, the fluctuation range of the most-traded silicon metal futures contract was 59% in 2025, and narrowed to 14% in H1 2026.

[SMM Silicon PV Morning Brief] Silicon metal: Yesterday, SMM east China oxygen-blown #553 silicon was around 9,000 yuan/mt, and #441 silicon was around 9,200 yuan/mt, stable from the previous day. The most-traded contract on the futures market consolidated in a stalemate below 8,400 yuan/mt. Recently, driven by supply-demand fundamentals, prices have encountered resistance, and are in a stalemate, consolidating on a subdued note. Wafers: Market prices for 18X wafers are 0.85-0.88 yuan/piece, 210RN wafers at 0.96-0.98 yuan/piece, and 210N wafers at 1.16-1.18 yuan/piece. Recently, cell enterprises have been calling for lower wafer prices, putting near-term wafer prices under pressure.

SMM Alumina Morning Comment 7.06 Futures: Overnight, the most-traded alumina 2609 futures contract bottomed out and rebounded, hitting a low of 2,705 yuan/mt before staging a strong rebound, eventually closing at 2,820 yuan/mt, edging up 1 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The daily candlestick formed a bullish candlestick with a long lower shadow, indicating strong support at the 2,700 yuan/mt level. From a moving averages perspective, the current price at 2,820 yuan/mt has risen above MA5 (2748.2) and MA40 (2815.55), but remains under resistance from MA10 (2790.8) and MA20 (2839.3). The short-term moving averages (MA5/MA10) are in a bearish alignment, while the medium-term MA20 still forms resistance above, indicating a tug-of-war between longs and shorts. The price oscillated around MA40. If it breaks through the MA20 (2839.3) resistance on high volume, it is expected to open up upside room; conversely, if it repeatedly fails to break through, caution is needed for a pullback to test the MA5 (2748.2) support. Overall, the futures show a consolidating pattern of 'bottoming out to confirm support while resistance persists above.' The short-term directional move will depend on volume confirmation and the battle at MA20. Ore market: As of July 3, 2026, the SMM Imported Bauxite Index was reported at $70.11/mt, up $0.13/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Guinea FOB average price was $39/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average price was $71/mt, flat; the SMM Australian low-temperature bauxite CIF average price was $64/mt, flat; the SMM Australian high-temperature bauxite CIF average price was $58.5/mt, flat; the Malaysian bauxite CIF average price was $52/mt, flat; the Malaysian bauxite CIF (washed) average price was $62.5/mt, flat; the Ghanaian bauxite CIF price was $78/mt, flat; the Turkish bauxite CFR price was $76/mt, down $2.5/mt from the previous Friday. Overall, for domestic ore, mine operations in Shanxi, Henan and other regions have recovered somewhat, and combined with falling alumina prices, sentiment among alumina refineries to push for lower raw material prices has strengthened, causing domestic ore prices to decline from earlier levels. As of July 2, in Shanxi, the EXW crushing plant price of bauxite with Al/Si ratio of 5.0 and alumina content of 60%, excluding VAT, was around 530-550 yuan/mt, with the average price up 10 yuan/mt MoM; in Henan, similar bauxite with Al/Si ratio of 5.0 and 60% alumina content, EXW crushing plant price, excluding VAT, was around 500-540 yuan/mt, with the average price up 20 yuan/mt MoM; in Guiyang, bauxite with Al/Si ratio of 6.0 and 60% alumina content, EXW price including VAT, was at 490-540 yuan/mt, with the average price up 20 yuan/mt MoM; in Guangxi, bauxite with Al/Si ratio of 6.0 and 53% alumina content, EXW crushing plant price excluding VAT, was at 320-335 yuan/mt. Imported ore side, uncertainties around Guinea’s July long-term contract prices and quota policies, combined with the traditional rainy season, prompted some mines to control shipments, lending some support to ore prices. Meanwhile, alumina refineries in China still held high inventories (equivalent to around 95 days), which limited their purchase willingness, and the tug-of-war over offer/bid prices between buyers and sellers persisted. In the short term, ore prices are expected to consolidate at highs. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the implementation of Guinea’s bauxite quota policy and the trend of ocean freight rates. Spot Prices: As of July 3, 2026, the SMM alumina index was at 2,773.71 yuan/mt, down 0.94 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Shandong alumina index was at 2,791.91 yuan/mt, down 0.34 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Henan alumina index was at 2,818.66 yuan/mt, down 1.73 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Shanxi alumina index was at 2,829.98 yuan/mt, down 1.99 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Guizhou alumina index was at 2,747.77 yuan/mt, down 1.59 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Guangxi alumina index was at 2,674.59 yuan/mt, down 0.80 yuan/mt MoM. Daily Spot-Futures Spread: According to SMM data, on July 3, the SMM alumina index stood at a premium of 47.71 yuan/mt against the most-traded contract’s latest traded price at 11:30 a.m. Warrant Daily: On July 3, total registered alumina warrants increased by 6,312 mt from the previous trading day to 271,600 mt. In Shandong, total registered alumina warrants remained flat at 32,417 mt; in Henan, they held steady at 17,698 mt; in Guangxi, they were unchanged at 8,429 mt; in Gansu, they stayed flat at 11,704 mt; in Xinjiang, they rose by 6,312 mt to 201,300 mt. Markets outside China: As of July 3, 2026, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $330/mt, the ocean freight rate was $32.30/mt, and the USD/CNY selling rate stood near 6.79. This translates to a selling price of approximately 2,863.50 yuan/mt at major Chinese ports, 89.79 yuan/mt above the SMM alumina index. Summary: Total alumina inventory in China edged up MoM, with relatively small overall changes. Breaking it down, raw material inventory at aluminum smelters declined, mainly because some smelters actively reduced high-priced in-factory inventories amid elevated spot alumina prices, leading to lower raw material stockpiling. In-factory inventory at alumina refineries edged up, as maintenance-related production cuts in Shanxi were offset by output increases in south China, resulting in limited overall changes. At ports, new vessels arrived successively, increasing port inventory. Warrant inventory trended downwards as the willingness to deliver to delivery warehouses waned due to invoice issuance issues and the spot-futures price spread. Inventory in transit and at yard stocks accumulated, mainly because warrants gradually matured and converted into spot cargoes, coupled with continued shipments from Guangxi, resulting in an increase in in-transit cargoes. The operational landscape for alumina is expected to see relatively small changes this week. Some enterprises using domestic ore may schedule maintenance due to ore supply-side issues, but the impact on monthly production will be limited, and overall inventory levels are expected to remain at current levels. On the price front, as the regional alumina mismatch problem gradually eases, the spot price center is likely to pull back, with the subsequent trend coming under pressure [All data other than publicly available information is derived from public data, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference purposes only and does not constitute any decision-making advice.]