[SMM Analysis: H1 2026 Review of the Overseas Copper Scrap Market: Copper Prices Surge, Tight Raw Material Supply Supports Firm Discount] In Q1 2026, copper prices stayed high and consolidated around $13,000/mt. It was not until late Q1 that a short-term correction emerged, but prices resumed their uptrend in Q2 and continued to hit new record highs. Behind this, tight copper ore supply provided support on one hand; on the other, the siphon effect on global copper resources triggered by US tariff expectations further amplified market concerns over the supply side. At the same time, rapid growth in new copper-consuming sectors such as NEVs, new energy power, power grid construction, and data centers fueled rising expectations for copper demand. Against the backdrop of supply growth failing to match demand growth, copper prices received strong support. The tight supply of copper units also prompted enterprises to shift their focus from the ore side to supplementary sources beyond mine supply, with copper scrap gaining noticeably in importance. As copper prices continued to surge, copper scrap prices rose in tandem, while structural changes arising from copper resource scarcity began to alter the pricing logic of the copper scrap market, which had previously been dominated by consumption and price differentials.

SMM News, July 7: Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals in the domestic market mostly fell, with SHFE copper down 0.12% and SHFE aluminum up 0.48%. SHFE lead fell 0.41%. SHFE zinc rose 1.06%. SHFE tin fell 0.26%. SHFE nickel fell 0.02%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures contract rose 0.42%, while the most-traded alumina contract fell 0.44%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 2.22%. The most-traded silicon metal contract fell 0.24%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract edged down. Ferrous metals were mostly in the red. Iron ore rose 0.27%, rebar was flat at 3,074 yuan/mt, and hot-rolled coil edged down. Stainless steel rose 1.83%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.93%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 0.38%. Overseas base metals: as of 11:42, LME metals mostly fell. LME copper fell 0.32%, LME aluminum rose 0.22%, and LME lead fell 0.19%. LME zinc rose 0.25%, LME tin fell 0.92%, and LME nickel fell 0.79%. Precious metals: as of 11:42, COMEX gold fell 0.57% and COMEX silver fell 1.48%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold fell 0.83%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 2.3%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 1.72%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract fell 0.98%. As of the midday close, the most-traded European shipping container futures contract extended the previous trading day’s decline, falling a further 5.03% to 2,446.5 points. As of 11:42 on July 7, midday moves in some futures: Spot and Fundamentals Aluminum: Today, futures continued to rise, while spot in South China was under pressure and weaker. Yesterday, the spot-futures price spread briefly strengthened sharply, coupled with the absolute price rising for four consecutive sessions to a higher level. With both elevated, most suppliers actively sold to cash in, and price cuts became increasingly common; some chose to hold prices firm but with little effect. Mainstream quotations were at a discount of -10 to 0 yuan/mt, and circulation loosened... Macro Front China: [World Bank Keeps Its 2026 China GDP Growth Forecast Unchanged] On July 7, the World Bank released the latest China Economic Update in Beijing. The report said that despite facing strong supply, weak demand, and shocks to global energy supplies, China’s economic growth overall maintained resilience, and China’s economic growth in 2026 is expected to be 4.4%. Compared with the previous update released in December last year, the growth forecast remained unchanged. (Xinhua News Agency) [PBOC Reverse Repo Operations Resulted in a Net Drain of 59.5 billion yuan on the Day] Today, the PBOC conducted 10 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations. As 69.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, it resulted in a net drain of 59.5 billion yuan on the day. (Jinshi Data APP) [John Lee: Hong Kong’s Gold Central Clearing System Begins Trial Operation Today; New RMB-Denominated Gold Futures Contracts Under Consideration] On July 7, John Lee announced that Hong Kong’s Gold Central Clearing System began trial operation today and that the development of new RMB-denominated gold futures contracts is under consideration. Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited will sign a memorandum of understanding with the PBOC on cross-border RMB payment and clearing. The Hong Kong gold market saw a critical upgrade at the infrastructure level, with the gold clearing and settlement system officially launched on July 7. To support the new system and simultaneously invigorate the local gold futures market, HKEX announced a one-year fee waiver for gold futures, effective from July 7. (Wall Street CN) 》Click for details On the US dollar front: As of 11:42, the US dollar index rose 0.03% to 100.89. Fed Governor Waller stated that the US Fed would not deliberately maintain low interest rates to help the US government finance its fiscal deficit. Waller noted that the US labor market had stabilized, while inflation had re-accelerated, meaning the risk from inflation now exceeds the risk to employment—a complete reversal from policy considerations a year ago. He pointed out that while he supported an interest rate cut last year due to labor market weakness, the policy focus should now shift back toward curbing inflation. The market’s attention has turned to the June CPI, due on July 14, the last critical inflation data before the Fed’s July 28-29 meeting. Although international oil prices have pulled back to around $70/barrel, Fed officials still expect inflation to be significantly above the 2% target at year-end. According to the CME "FedWatch" tool: The probability of the US Fed maintaining the current interest rate in July is 74.3%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 25.7%. For September, the probability of the rate remaining unchanged is 42.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 46.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike is 10.8%. (Jinshi Data APP) The US ISM Services PMI report showed that economic activity in the services sector continued to expand in June. The Services PMI registered 54, marking the 24th consecutive month in expansion territory. Miller, Chair of the ISM Services Business Survey Committee, stated that the June Services PMI of 54 was down 0.5 from May’s 54.5. The Business Activity Index remained in expansion territory, falling 2.3 from May’s 57.7 to 55.4. The Prices Index dropped to 67.7 in June, a decrease of 3.6 from May’s 71.3, falling below 70 for the first time since February. The index has been above 60 for 19 consecutive months, with a 12-month average of 68. Diesel, gasoline, oil and related commodities were again cited as the items with the largest price increases in June, but some respondents also reported price declines. This may stem from differences in contract terms for these commodities across companies. Some respondents noted declines in payments for gasoline and diesel, but this was not a widespread phenomenon. We expect this situation to persist for several months as rising oil prices feed through supply chains, but assuming the recent progress in oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz continues, there should be some relief by autumn. (Jin10 Data APP) Other Currencies: Japan’s Minister of State for Economic and Fiscal Policy, Shironai Minoru, said media reports suggesting Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae’s government was trying to steer interest rates lower were completely inaccurate. Speaking at a regular press conference in Tokyo on Tuesday, Shironai said, “Reports that the government would encourage low interest rates as part of its fiscal expansion policies are groundless. If our intentions are not being accurately conveyed, we will work harder to foster understanding.” His remarks came as financial markets closely watch how Takaichi Sanae will implement her economic strategy through massive investment without adding to the already heavy debt burden. Shironai attended a Bank of Japan board meeting last month as a government representative, where policymakers raised the benchmark interest rate to 1%, the highest in 31 years. (Jin10 Data APP) Data: Today will see the release of Germany’s seasonally adjusted industrial output MoM for May, the UK Halifax seasonally adjusted house price index MoM for June, France’s trade balance for May, the weekly change in US ADP employment for the week ending June 20, the US trade balance for May, and China’s foreign exchange reserves for June, among others. Additionally, attention should be paid to: Turkey hosts the NATO summit through July 8; the US Trade Representative’s office holds public hearings on a proposal to impose additional tariffs on 60 global economies; Samsung Electronics will release its Q2 earnings guidance. Crude Oil: As of 11:42, both benchmark crude prices rose, with WTI up 0.54% and Brent up 0.61%. The brief window of US-Iran easing once again faces rupture, pushing oil prices higher. Markets are watching geopolitical developments and supply-demand outlook changes. The number of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz continues to rebound. According to reports, a total of 160 vessels passed through the strait from Monday to Saturday last week, though the overall level remains far below pre-war norms. (Wall Street CN) As a surge in global supply intensifies competition for buyers, Saudi Arabia cut the official selling prices of its main crude grades for Asian customers for August by the most in at least 26 years. According to a price list, Saudi Aramco slashed the price of Arab Light crude for Asia for August by $11 per barrel, to a discount of $1.50 per barrel against the regional benchmark. The cut was larger than the $8 per barrel expected in a survey of institutions. Crude oil prices in the Middle East have recently declined. After resuming exports from the Ras Tanura port in the Persian Gulf, Saudi Aramco temporarily raised crude oil shipments to approximately 90% of pre-war levels. Before the war, Ras Tanura was the main loading port for Saudi crude oil exports. As the war blocked the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Aramco diverted most of its crude oil flows to the Yanbu port on the Red Sea. Previously, the OPEC+ producer group agreed to continue with a small production increase in August. Now, with shipping resuming in the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf oil producers such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait will be able to utilize their higher quotas. (Jinshi Data APP) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

(Kitco News) - Although gold prices have been unable to break initial resistance above $4,200, one market strategist expects the worst of the selling pressure from the months-long correction may now be over. In his latest precious metals note, Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, said he believes the price action in the gold market is shifting from liquidation to consolidation and base-building. “The sector has moved from being aggressively bid to selectively accumulated, and the next move will likely depend on whether macro conditions continue to ease or once again turn hostile,” he said in his Monday note. Hansen added that gold continues to be driven by market expectations surrounding U.S. monetary policy. Although markets still expect the U.S. central bank to raise interest rates this year, aggressive forecasts have been pared back following last week’s disappointing employment data, which showed that only 57,000 jobs were created in June. At the same time, gold is also benefiting from optimistic comments from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, who emphasized his commitment to price stability and returning inflation to the central bank's target. However, he also said inflation risks had eased in recent weeks since taking over leadership of the Federal Reserve. In a comment to Kitco News, Hansen said he does not expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this year as inflation pressures continue to ease, in line with Warsh’s comments. “Forward inflation expectations have collapsed, so tightening when the reason for tightening is easing with energy prices slumping makes no sense. Once that becomes the general market view, the dollar will soften as a very elevated long gets squeezed while short-end bond yields will move back towards Fed Funds rates,” he said. However, until the Federal Reserve’s policy path becomes clearer, Hansen said gold still has a lot of ground to recover, with prices remaining 26% below January’s highs. “Support below USD 4,000 has held so far, but the rebound towards USD 4,200 last week was met with renewed selling, indicating that some investors are still using strength to reduce exposure. Such price action is typical after a deep correction and helps explain why building a durable market trough can take time,” he said. “On the charts, the 200-day moving average near USD 4,485 represents the first major hurdle. Above that, the 38.2% retracement of the roughly USD 1,650 January-to-June correction sits near USD 4,574. A break above these levels would further improve the technical picture. Until then, the recovery is better viewed as an attempt to build a base." Along with growing optimism toward gold, Hansen said he is also encouraged by the recent price action in silver, even though prices on Monday were capped at $63.27 an ounce. “ Silver ’s latest sell-off was arrested ahead of key support in the mid-USD 50s, with the subsequent rebound taking prices back above USD 60. The move is encouraging, but like gold, silver still has considerable work to do to repair the technical and psychological damage inflicted during the past few months. Silver combines gold ’s macro sensitivity with a tighter fundamental backdrop. Multi-year supply deficits and growing industrial demand provide structural support, but the market is much smaller and more flow-sensitive than gold. That makes silver particularly attractive to momentum-driven investors when conditions improve, while also exposing it to sharper liquidation when sentiment reverses,” he said. Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-07-06/gold-price-may-have-found-its-floor-liquidation-gives-way-consolidation

July 6, 2026 Despite current headwinds from high U.S. yields and a strong dollar, HSBC believes the gold price still has further upside potential through the end of 2026. While the precious metal is currently trading within a narrow range in the short term—as higher real yields increase the opportunity cost of this non-interest-bearing asset—analysts remain extremely bullish on the long-term investment case. Short-Term Pressure: Raising Liquidity Rather Than a Safe Haven During the recent geopolitical crises in the Middle East and amid rising oil prices, gold behaved less like a traditional safe haven and, at times, moved in tandem with the stock market. In an environment marked by inflation concerns and falling stock markets, investors primarily used the precious metal as a highly liquid hedge. To quickly generate cash during tense market phases or to meet impending margin calls on other investments, gold positions were aggressively sold off. This development was accompanied by previously massively overextended positioning in the futures market. Driven in part by inexperienced speculators, a noticeable correction followed the rapid surge to around $5,400 per ounce at the end of January, as these often leveraged positions had to be hastily unwound. Also noteworthy for commodity investors is the profoundly altered market dynamic: The historical correlation between gold and oil, which was still strongly positive in the 1970s and 1980s, has since decoupled dramatically. Today, this correlation has weakened to a value of around 0.15 or even into negative territory, posing entirely new challenges for diversification in modern portfolios. Structural demand from Asia and ETF inflows provide support The gold price owes its solid foundation to the ongoing need for diversification among institutional investors. Global de-dollarization and geopolitical uncertainties, along with steady ETF inflows, are driving demand, particularly in Asia. On the Shanghai Gold Exchange, this is reflected in a significant price premium of around 20 U.S. dollars. The focus here is less on jewelry or coins and more on large-format bars for the institutional sector. Regulatory changes in China and India now allow large local insurers and asset managers to strategically build up gold positions. This robust demand is complemented by steady purchases by central banks, as underscored by the People’s Bank of China ’s recent acquisitions of an additional 8.1 metric tons. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-price-forecast-for-2026-why-the-precious-metal-holds-huge-potential-despite-headwinds

[SMM Daily Review: Silver Prices Move Sideways, Spot Premiums Edge Down] SMM, July 7: The pullback in inflation and soft nonfarm payrolls delayed rate hike expectations, but the strong US dollar still weighed on precious metals. Supply and demand in the spot market were both weak; the high end of spot premiums loosened, and transactions favored the low end.

[SHFE and LME Aluminum Prices: Low-Level Consolidation and Recovery as Destocking Positives Offset Overseas Capacity Negatives] On the macro front, US June nonfarm payrolls significantly missed expectations, causing the market to push back the timing of Fed rate hikes. A weaker US dollar provided valuation support for nonferrous metals. The US and Iran resumed nuclear talks, and the geopolitical risk premium continued to narrow, to some extent capping the upside room for commodities. Meanwhile, expectations of new overseas aluminum capacity coming on stream formed a medium- and long-term supply bearish factor. Domestic positives stood out. The proportion of liquid aluminum continued to rise, and aluminum ingot warehouse withdrawals hit a four-year high over the past week. The pace of inventory destocking significantly accelerated, providing support for the bottom of SHFE aluminum. Amid a mix of bullish and bearish factors, overseas positives from a weaker US dollar and negatives from supply/geopolitics offset each other. LME aluminum, after an earlier oversold decline, saw its downward momentum slow, and in the short term, it mainly undergoes low-level consolidation and recovery. Supported by rapid destocking, the probability of China’s market underperforming LME aluminum is low. SHFE and LME may see slight divergence, and a one-sided weak market is unlikely to persist.