US Fed announced for the fifth consecutive time this year to maintain interest rates unchanged.

SMM, July 29: On July 29, precious metals futures in and outside China showed mediocre performance, while A-share precious metals equities moved relatively independently, with futures and equities diverging. As the US Fed’s interest rate meeting approached, trading in precious metals futures turned cautious, with growing wait-and-see sentiment and neither bulls nor bears establishing a consistent direction, keeping prices moving sideways. The A-share precious metals sector trended relatively strong. On one hand, the sector had undergone earlier corrections, leaving room for valuation repair; on the other, the market traded on the medium- and long-term trend of gold prices and miners’ profit expectations, while positive H1 earnings previews from precious metals companies like Chifeng Gold also boosted market sentiment. Futures market: As of around 14:13 on July 29, COMEX gold fell 0.13% to $4,033.4/oz; SHFE gold main contract fell 0.59% to 883.12 yuan/g; COMEX silver rose 0.97% to $58.085/oz; SHFE silver main contract fell 0.27% to 14,181 yuan/kg; silver T+D rose 0.79% to 14,120 yuan/kg. Stock market: At the close on July 29, the precious metals sector rose 2.58%. Among individual stocks, Western Gold surged over 5%, and Shengda Resources, Xingye Silver&Tin, Shandong Humon Smelting, Shandong Gold, Hunan Silver, and Shanjin International led the gains. News [Chifeng Gold: Expects H1 2026 Net Profit up 54%-61% YoY] Chifeng Gold disclosed its earnings preview on the evening of July 14, expecting its net profit attributable to shareholders for H1 2026 to be 1.7–1.78 billion yuan, up 54%–61% YoY. [Zhaojin Gold: Expects H1 2026 Net Profit up 347.48%–436.98% YoY] Zhaojin Gold disclosed its earnings preview on the evening of July 14, expecting its net profit attributable to shareholders for H1 2026 to be 200–240 million yuan, up 347.48%–436.98% YoY; and its net profit after deducting non-recurring items is expected to be 80–116 million yuan, up 490.44%–756.14% YoY. [Shandong Humon Smelting: Expects H1 2026 Net Profit up 81.06%–122.36% YoY] Shandong Humon Smelting disclosed its earnings preview on the evening of July 14, expecting its net profit attributable to shareholders for H1 2026 to be 570–700 million yuan, up 81.06%–122.36% YoY; and its net profit after deducting non-recurring items is expected to be 272–402 million yuan, down 2.03%–33.73% YoY. [Western Gold: Expects H1 2026 Net Profit up 280.16%–333.39% YoY] Western Gold disclosed its earnings preview on the evening of July 13, expecting its net profit attributable to shareholders for H1 2026 to be 500–570 million yuan, up 280.16%–333.39% YoY; and its net profit after deducting non-recurring items is expected to be 490–580 million yuan, up 172.96%–223.09% YoY. [Zhongjin Gold: Expected H1 2026 Net Profit at 4.1 Billion-4.6 Billion Yuan, Up 52.15%-70.7% YoY] Zhongjin Gold disclosed its earnings forecast on the evening of July 13, expecting its H1 2026 net profit attributable to parent to be 4.1 billion to 4.6 billion yuan, up 52.15%-70.7% YoY; deducted non-recurring profit is expected to be 4.05 billion to 4.55 billion yuan, up 36.96%-53.87% YoY. Spot Market Silver On July 29, the SMM #1 silver ex-factory reference average price in the morning was 14,038 yuan/kg, up 0.4% from the previous trading day. Spot market side, the month-end supply-demand dual weakness pattern persisted. Suppliers showed growing sentiment to hold back from selling, with some offers leaning toward premiums, while downstream buyers preferred negotiated deals at slight discounts, though transactions were basically maintained near parity today. Early session quotes in the Shanghai area were mainly centered around TD parity to a premium of 10 yuan/kg, with deals leaning toward the lower end. Affected by seasonal factors, silver ingot production pulled back slightly this month, and both domestic and overseas demand was sluggish. Overall, offers remained firm but transactions were limited. In the Shenzhen area, some national standard material was concentrated around a discount of 5 yuan/kg against the TD contract to parity; low-priced cargoes existed but did not cause significant disruption to spot trade. Today's premium and discount quote for the spot market against the most-traded SHFE 2610 contract was at a discount of 60 to 50 yuan/kg. Overall, the market focus was on the US Fed's July policy meeting and the digestion of subsequent policy signals. Spot market side, the month-end supply-demand dual weakness pattern persisted, with deals maintained near parity. Market Voices Outlook for precious metals from some institutions is as follows: A Reuters survey showed that analysts cut their gold price forecasts for the first time since late 2023, following a sharp pullback from record highs in January, but most still expect support from central bank buying and concerns over fiscal sustainability. The median forecast for gold prices in 2026 from the survey of 29 analysts and traders over the past three weeks was $4,509 per ounce. That was down from $4,916 three months ago and marked the first forecast cut in 11 quarters. The average forecast for 2027 was $4,610, compared with $5,100 in the previous survey. Gold prices hit an all-time high of $5,595 per ounce in January but suffered a sharp pullback in Q2, posting their worst quarter since 2013, as the Iran war exacerbated energy inflation and pushed up rate hike expectations. Since the outbreak of the war, spot gold has fallen about 22%. (Jin10 Data APP) ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey pointed out that gold prices rose on Monday, driven by a sharp decline in oil prices that eased inflation concerns and weighed on the US dollar and Treasury yields. The sharp drop in oil prices on Monday eased inflation concerns and the prospect of further monetary tightening. This move followed a pause in US-Iran hostilities. Lower oil prices also weighed on the US dollar and Treasury yields, improving the outlook for non-yielding assets ahead of this week's Fed meeting. Markets are now focusing on the US Fed and the upcoming US inflation data for further guidance on the rate outlook. If yields remain subdued, gold should continue to find support around current levels. However, any hawkish surprise from the Fed could cap further upside room in the near term. Citi said its base case shows that India’s gold imports will remain subdued in Q3, despite the third quarter historically being a peak season for seasonal stockpiling. This is due to ample scrap supply, cautious consumer sentiment, and local price discounts, which are curbing fresh import demand. However, Citi maintains its 0-3 month short-term gold price target at $4,500. The bank said this target assumes an easing of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and the US Fed turning less hawkish; many near-term risks could still cause gold prices to revisit lower levels, including a major re-escalation, AI-driven de-risking, and a persistently hawkish Fed stance. UBS gold strategist Joni Teves remains optimistic on gold’s medium- to long-term outlook. She noted in a commentary that gold prices have been rising since the start of this week, with mainland China and Hong Kong gold stocks surging about 20% over three days, which is a positive signal. “We believe market confidence in gold is starting to improve and we continue to expect gold prices to rebound from current levels by year-end,” she said. The UBS Global team remains optimistic on gold’s medium-term outlook and forecasts gold prices will reach $4,675 per ounce by end-2026 and $4,800 by end-2027, respectively. She noted that key events to watch next are the US Fed’s policy tone at the late-July FOMC meeting and further developments in the Middle East. (Jin10 Data APP) ANZ Research analysts said in a report that physical gold demand for the metal and central bank buying are supporting the gold market. They added that while gold faces near-term headwinds from hawkish Fed expectations and a firm US dollar, investment positioning in gold looks light after months of ETF outflows, suggesting that further downside may be limited. High interest rate environments usually drag on non-yielding assets like gold. (Zhitong Finance) Goldman Sachs stated that despite pressure from expectations of a tighter US Fed stance, central bank buying is expected to provide a floor for gold. Demand remains strong, and according to the bank's estimates, central banks bought 81 mt of gold in May, with a three-month average monthly purchase volume of 67 mt, well above the average of 17 mt before 2022. Goldman analysts said, "We believe the trend of central banks increasing their gold holdings will persist for years as they hedge geopolitical and financial risks through reserve diversification." The bank forecasts average monthly purchases of 50 mt for this year and 40 mt for next year. (Jin10 Data APP) Soojin Kim, analyst at Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, said, "Recent price movements indicate that the market is paying more attention to the possibility that US interest rates will stay high for longer, rather than gold's traditional safe-haven demand. This makes gold vulnerable to pressure unless geopolitical risks further translate into a widespread deterioration in financial market sentiment." (Jin10 Data APP) Fidelity International, an asset manager, said it plans to rebuild its gold positions, which were reduced earlier this year, at an appropriate time in the future, believing that gold's long-term drivers remain strong. Ian Samson, multi-asset portfolio manager at Fidelity International, recently said, "We plan to rebuild our gold positions; it is just a question of timing." He said he reduced his gold allocation to a neutral level during January-February, just as gold's multi-year bull run came to an abrupt end. Samson expects the gold market to re-enter a bull market sometime in 2027. The logic of a return to a bull market would only be undermined if "governments return to fiscal discipline and central banks truly commit to pushing inflation back down," but "I don't think we are in that world right now." Samson added that continued gold purchases by central banks—a key driver of the previous bull run—will continue to support gold prices. A research report from Guoxin Securities shows that after a deep pullback in H1, gold prices are gradually showing signs of bottoming near $4,000, with only an event catalyst needed to fuel a rally. It suggests building positions near $4,000 in batches on dips and avoiding chasing rallies. The core allocation logic: First, valuations are at historically low levels, offering a prominent margin of safety. After the deep pullback in H1, the valuation levels of gold mining companies have plunged from the beginning of the year to low levels, offering high odds. Going forward, besides a valuation recovery, they are expected to also benefit from price elasticity brought by rising gold prices. Second, the earnings elasticity advantage is significant. Gold stocks act as an amplifier for gold prices—ore mining costs are rigid, and gold price increases directly translate into profit growth, with earnings elasticity far exceeding the gold price rise itself. A research report from Huayuan Securities notes: In the medium term, the market’s core trading logic has anchored on the pricing chain of “inflation stickiness resilience exceeding expectations → the US Fed maintaining high interest rates for an extended period → repeated intensification of interest rate hike expectations within the year.” The gold price center is still dominated by US real Treasury yields and the US dollar index, and the overall trend is likely to continue to consolidate on a subdued note. Currently, ceasefire negotiations in the Middle East are stuck in repeated games, with significant differences between the parties on core demands such as troop withdrawal arrangements, nuclear facility inspection mechanisms, and control rights and passage fee rules for the Strait of Hormuz waterway. The recurring nature of geopolitical conflicts continues to disrupt global crude oil supply expectations, and the upside risk of energy prices may further consolidate inflation stickiness, in turn supporting the US Fed’s tight policy stance. At the same time, the synchronous rise of the US dollar index and US Treasury yields has formed a dual headwind. Combined with gold’s safe-haven attribute temporarily giving way to interest rate pricing logic, the upside room for gold prices may continue to be constrained. Key events to watch in the next two weeks include: 1) developments in the Middle East conflict situation and navigation conditions in the Strait of Hormuz; 2) the US Fed interest rate decision to be announced on July 30; 3) the US June PCE to be released on July 30. In the long term, gold’s upward logic has not weakened; rather, it has been further strengthened amid changes in the global macro and geopolitical landscape. 1) The constraints of the US fiscal deficit, debt expansion, rising trade protectionism, and intensifying great power competition are undermining the stability of the US dollar credit anchor, driving a reallocation of global reserve assets towards diversification. Gold is gradually evolving into an important asset for hedging sovereign credit risk, geopolitical fragmentation risk, and the risk of restructuring the global monetary system. 2) Continued gold purchases by global central banks still provide solid bottom support for gold prices, and the PBOC’s continued increase in holdings further validates the official sector’s long-term allocation demand. 3) In the late cycle of the US economy, it faces multiple constraints of high interest rates, credit contraction, and a slowdown in growth. In the future, whether the US Fed cuts interest rates due to economic slowdown or is forced to maintain high rates for longer due to inflation stickiness, gold has strong long-term allocation value: the former favors a decline in real interest rates, while the latter strengthens safe-haven and credit risk resistance demand. Overall, gold remains in a favorable window in the medium and long term, and the price center is expected to continue shifting upward amid the reshaping of the global macro and geopolitical landscape. Recommended Reading:

SMM July 29: On July 29, mainstream spot rare earth prices in China extended their stay in the doldrums, while the A-share rare earth permanent magnet concept sector drifted higher, showing a pronounced divergence between the spot market and the secondary market. The strength of rare earth permanent magnet concept stocks was underpinned by multiple factors: The production costs of rare earth permanent magnet enterprises are directly related to spot rare earth prices. The phased decline in raw material prices was expected to ease cost pressure on midstream magnetic material enterprises; the rare earth permanent magnet sector underwent continuous corrections in the prior period, with valuations pulling back to relatively low levels, attracting some capital to enter and position; meanwhile, the market remained bullish on sectors such as humanoid robots, NEVs, and industrial motors, expecting these areas to drive medium- and long-term demand growth for high-performance NdFeB, with capital trading around downstream growth expectations. As of the close on July 29, the rare earth permanent magnet concept rose 1.25%. In terms of individual stocks: Jintian Shares and Jiaozuo Wanfang gained over 4%, while Lizhong Group, Zhenghai Magnetic Material, Sanchuan Wisdom, and Xiangdian Shares led the gains. Rare Earth Prices Overall in the Doldrums; Inquiries for Pr-Nd Oxide Recover Spot market: On July 29, the average price of Pr-Nd oxide extended the decline from the previous trading day to fall a further 0.66%. The average prices of dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide were unchanged from the previous trading day. Currently, overall prices in the rare earth market remained sluggish. By product, in the Pr-Nd market, Pr-Nd oxide futures prices recovered, and inquiry activity in the market gradually increased, prompting spot suppliers to raise their quotes. However, downstream buyers had low psychological price levels, limiting actual upside room for spot cargo, with prices still weak compared to yesterday morning. In the metal market, influenced by the recovery in oxide prices and reduced availability of low-priced goods, suppliers slightly raised their quotes; but downstream magnetic material enterprises only maintained just-in-time restocking and were reluctant to accept high-priced raw materials, leaving metal prices still in the doldrums compared to yesterday morning. The medium-heavy rare earth products showed divergent trends: overall inquiry volume saw no significant increase, with suppliers of dysprosium and terbium products maintaining relatively stable quotes and the market generally steady; inquiries for gadolinium products were sluggish, with prices continuing to decline; in the holmium oxide market, inquiries increased, and alongside tighter low-priced supply, suppliers raised their quotes. However, holmium iron inquiries did not improve simultaneously, as magnetic material enterprises resisted high-priced goods, keeping holmium iron quotes unchanged. In the short term, the market is characterized by intense bargaining between sellers and buyers. Before any notable improvement in the supply-demand relationship, Pr-Nd prices are expected to move sideways in a narrow range. Institutional Voices Soochow Securities stated in a report dated July 29: Tungsten and rare earths are subject to mining quota management. Since 2025, both have faced quota tightening, intensifying supply-side constraints. For tungsten mines, the Ministry of Natural Resources lowered the first batch of total tungsten mining indicators for 2025 and strictly controlled production exceeding or without quotas, keeping the raw material circulation persistently tight. Rare earths are jointly regulated under a total volume control mechanism by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), the Ministry of Natural Resources, and the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC). In recent years, growth in total rare earth mining quotas has been highly restrained, with quotas for medium-heavy rare earths showing near-zero growth. Rare earths: Material system upgrades for high-capacity MLCCs are expected to boost demand for medium-heavy rare earths. Heavily doping the ceramic material of MLCC shells with rare earth oxides such as dysprosium oxide and yttrium oxide can effectively address inherent defects like poor temperature stability, insufficient insulation resistance, susceptibility to degradation under reducing atmospheres, and abnormal grain growth, meeting the performance requirements of high-capacity MLCCs. We estimate that (1) the unit consumption of medium-heavy rare earth oxides per 100 million MLCCs is about 15 kg; (2) from 2025 to 2030, AI servers and automotive electronics are expected to boost global MLCC demand from 663.1 billion units to 1,362.9 billion units; (3) corresponding demand for dysprosium oxide and yttrium oxide will rise from 101 mt to 207 mt, a CAGR of 15.5%, with a net increase of 106 mt. As China’s rare earth supply landscape trends toward rigid total volume constraints, continuous structural optimization, and intensifying disruption outside China, the price center for medium-heavy rare earths is expected to rise. A report published by Guojin Securities on July 26 showed: Pr-Nd oxide prices fell MoM. Dysprosium oxide prices are expected to benefit from the boost by MLCCs, with a notable trend of rebounding from the bottom. Coupled with expectations of more relaxed exports going forward, they are more bullish on subsequent demand. The export rush outside China combined with sustained supply-side reform progress suggests a potential supply-demand resonance in rare earths. Xiangcai Securities noted in a report that recently, some raw ore separation enterprises have suspended operations due to factors such as group integration, while scrap recyclers that previously suspended or cut production have not yet resumed, keeping output persistently low. Production growth is limited and costs remain high and firm, leading to overall tightness in the oxide supply side. Metal is relatively ample, but producers are firm in their quotations and shipments, with little pressure to sell. On the demand side, expectations are improving, with Q3 demand recovery expectations gradually strengthening. Production at most large magnetic material enterprises remains stable, supported by long-term contract orders, and new export orders are expected to improve. Overall, the supply side remains tight, expectations for market growth are relatively low, downstream demand is moderate, and the overall trend is improving. The market is following a steady upward path, and rare earth prices are expected to be raised moderately going forward. Recommended reading:

Western Mining Co., Ltd. 2026 Semi-Annual Report: The company's copper smelting producers are Qinghai Copper and Western Copper Semis. Qinghai Copper employs the world's most advanced and competitive "double bottom blowing" copper smelting process, optimizing economic efficiency by further improving comprehensive recovery indicators. Its current smelting copper capacity is 200,000 mt/year. Western Copper Semis has a smelting copper capacity of 100,000 mt/year, continuously strengthening supply and sales management, enhancing product quality, and boosting profitability. During the reporting period, the company produced a total of 164,000 mt of smelting copper and by-produced 270,000 mt of sulphuric acid.

As of July 11, 2026, the direct reduced iron (DRI) plant of Jindal Steel Oman in Sohar operated continuously for 188 days without any unplanned shutdowns. The 6.5-meter shaft furnace set a record for the highest monthly production of 185,710 mt in May 2026, with an average operating rate of 249.6 mt per hour. The facility’s production exceeded its original designed capacity of 1.5 million mt by 33%, establishing a new global benchmark for operational efficiency. The Sohar plant integrates gas-based direct reduction (using reformed natural gas to reduce iron ore) with a 220-mt Danieli electric furnace, where hot DRI is charged directly into the furnace by gravity. Billed as the world’s first gravity-fed hot DRI charging system, it achieves significant energy savings. In early 2026, the EAF side also set records: monthly production of 235,112 mt of liquid steel at a rate of 324 mt/hour, with a charge mix of 61% hot DRI, 37% cold DRI, and 2% hot briquetted iron (HBI), and electricity consumption of 493 kWh per mt of steel. In other words, from reduction to melting, this is a fully integrated DRI-EAF process, and the high stability of the shaft furnace serves as the foundation for the entire chain’s efficiency. Jindal’s record carries weight because it falls within a strengthening megatrend. According to data from Midrex and the World Steel Association, global DRI production reached 140.8 million mt in 2024, setting a new record high, up 3.8% YoY (the previous record was 135.7 million mt in 2023). The cumulative increase since 2019 is approximately 32.7 million mt, an increase of over 30%. More notably, this growth outpaced the mild 1% growth in global crude steel production over the same period. The DRI route is steadily expanding its share in the overall steel landscape. Midrex technology accounted for 54.1% of total production and approximately 80.1% of shaft-furnace DRI output. However, this growth is highly concentrated. In 2024, India ranked first globally with 54.7 million mt, accounting for over one-third of the total. Iran followed with 34.7 million mt, and together the two countries accounted for about 63% of the global total. Next came Russia (8.0 million mt), Saudi Arabia (6.6 million mt), and Egypt (6.4 million mt). The landscape broadly splits into two segments: one is India’s vast domestic demand-driven system based on coal-based rotary kiln sponge iron, and the other is the gas-based DRI cluster in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) built on cheap natural gas. Jindal Steel Oman’s Sohar plant falls into the latter category. This concentration also means that any disruption in natural gas supply, energy policy, or geopolitical turbulence in one location will be magnified to affect global DRI supply. To grasp the strategic value of such plants, one must place them within the carbon intensity framework. According to the representative route values from the World Steel Association, the blast furnace–converter integrated route emits approximately 2.3 mt CO₂ per mt of steel, while the scrap-based electric furnace route records the lowest at around 0.7 mt. The gas-based direct reduction–electric furnace route falls in between, at roughly 1.43 mt. This means that before green hydrogen direct reduction achieves true scale, gas-based DRI represents the most viable low-carbon iron source pathway beyond the blast furnace. It is not zero-carbon, but it can already reduce the carbon footprint to around 60% of the blast furnace route. A gas-based DRI plant like Jindal Shuhar—efficient, low-cost, and running stably—sits right at the sweet spot of this transitional pathway. Placed back into the trade dimension of the ferrous metal industry chain, the Middle East’s gas-based DRI and HBI have long played the role of supplying green iron to Europe, Turkey, and the US. The top five global DRI importers in 2024 were the US (1.5 million mt), Turkey (1.2 million mt), India (900,000 mt), Mexico (800,000 mt), and Italy (700,000 mt). As the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) enters the actual payment phase and embedded carbon costs increase year by year, the premium window for exporting low-carbon iron sources to Europe is opening up. Plants that can spread fixed unit costs thinner and push annualized output to 133% of designed capacity are precisely the most resilient marginal suppliers along this trade flow. Viewed from this angle, Jindal’s 188-day record is not merely a straightforward milestone.

July 29: An operator in east China offered a monthly rental of 25,000 yuan for Zhenwu 810E eight-GPU servers; a 64-unit H100 cluster in Inner Mongolia was available for full lease at a monthly rate of 79,000 yuan, locked in for four years with a closed price; in Beijing, nine spot Ascend 910C Atlas 800T A3 servers were offered at a monthly rental of 63,000 yuan; in the H100 machine channel, there was no spot availability, and as soon as downstream finalised, upstream was sold out; a certain operator’s high-end computing project had a shortfall of 300 units, citing that the prices were too high to bear; large-scale demand for 910B2 leasing emerged, with clusters of more than 64 units being scarce nationwide.