[7.17 Morning Meeting Minutes] US June PPI declined 0.3% MoM, the first drop since last year, while market expectations were for a flat reading; June PPI rose 5.5% YoY, significantly narrowing from the 6.5% in May; June core PPI YoY growth slowed to 4.7%, with only a 0.2% MoM increase, both below market expectations. On July 16, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract surged in early trading, breaking through 130,000 yuan/mt and briefly hitting 133,000 yuan/mt, with a morning gain of 2.9%; LME nickel simultaneously held above $17,000/mt, rising about 2.5% in early trading. Recently, macro, policy, and cost-side positives re-emerged. Combined with a MACD golden cross, nickel prices holding above the 10-day moving average, and bearish funds taking profits, nickel prices have rebound momentum. However, weak demand and high inventory continue to cap upside room. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade within a 127,000–137,000 yuan/mt range. Going forward, attention will focus on the results of Indonesia's July RKAB quota approval and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SHFE Nickel Drives SS Futures Higher; Spot Stainless Steel Follows Gains, Downstream Purchases Remain Cautious According to SMM on July 16, SS futures showed an overall rising and probing pattern. Driven by SHFE nickel strength, SS simultaneously climbed and probed higher. As of the close, the most-traded SS contract settled at 14,795 yuan/mt. In the spot market, although SS futures were relatively stable in the morning and spot offers held steady accordingly, they surged rapidly in the afternoon following SHFE nickel's sharp rise, and spot offers rose in tandem. Despite rapid price fluctuations, downstream end-users remained cautious in purchasing, but low-priced cargoes in the market were basically gone. SS most-traded contract: At 10:15 a.m., SS2608 was at 14,665 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 255-605 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi was flat; for cold-rolled mill edge 304/2B coils, the average price in Wuxi was unchanged and Foshan's average price held steady; cold-rolled 316L/2B coil prices in Wuxi were flat; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil quotes in Wuxi were unchanged; and cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan were flat. This week, macro fund disturbances intensified, and stainless steel futures followed an independent weak trajectory, with the futures movement clearly diverging from SHFE nickel and other nonferrous metals. During the week, fund sentiment switched repeatedly, driving wild swings in SS futures. The key support level of 14,500 yuan/mt was breached earlier, and the overall trend center continued to shift lower, with overall market trading sentiment leaning bearish. Spot and...

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] Capital Flows and SHFE Nickel Resonance Propel SS Futures; Spot Stainless Steel Demand Remains Weak According to SMM news on July 14, SS futures showed a strengthening and upward trend. Driven by the strengthening of SHFE nickel during the night session, combined with the impact of SS's own capital flow fluctuations, SS rebounded quickly after the night session opened, and then maintained a generally strong consolidation pattern. As of the midday close, the most-traded SS contract settled at 14,565 yuan/mt. In the spot market, boosted by SS's stop falling and strengthening, spot quotations recovered from yesterday afternoon's decline, low-priced sources in the market decreased, some traders raised their quotations, downstream end-user clients remained in a wait-and-see sentiment, and transactions remained mediocre overall. The most-traded SS futures contract. At 10:15 a.m., SS2608 was reported at 14,540 yuan/mt, up 210 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the 330-730 yuan/mt range. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi was flat; for cold-rolled raw edge 304/2B coil, the average price in Wuxi held steady, and the average price in Foshan held steady; the price of cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in Wuxi was flat; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil, the Wuxi quotation was flat; and cold-rolled 430/2B coil in both Wuxi and Foshan was flat. This week, macro capital flow disturbances intensified, and stainless steel futures moved in an independent weak trend, with market movements significantly diverging from the rhythm of SHFE nickel and other nonferrous metals. During the week, capital sentiment switched repeatedly, causing SS futures to swing wildly. The key support level of 14,500 yuan/mt was breached earlier, and the overall trend center continued to...

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SHFE Nickel Stops Falling but Fails to Change SS Weakness, Guidance Price Cut Drags Down Stainless Steel Spot Prices According to SMM on July 9, SS futures further pulled back and declined. Although SHFE nickel strengthened and rose, SS remained under pressure from capital flows and continued to decline. As of the close, the most-traded SS contract settled at 14,355 yuan/mt. In the spot market, driven by the consecutive decline in SS futures, a mainstream stainless steel mill cut its guidance price, leading spot quotes to follow suit and decline. Against a backdrop of persistently weak overall market sentiment, transactions remained sluggish. SS Futures Most-Traded Contract: At 10:15 AM, SS2608 was at 14,375 yuan/mt, down 115 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi ranged from 545 to 1,095 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi remained stable; for cold-rolled raw edge 304/2B coils, the average price in Wuxi fell by 50 yuan/mt, and the average price in Foshan fell by 50 yuan/mt; the price of cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi remained flat; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils, quotes in Wuxi were flat; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan remained unchanged. This week, the tug-of-war between macro and industrial logic dominated the market trend. US inflation data pulled back, expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes further cooled, and the US dollar index weakened, collectively lifting the valuations of commodities and nonferrous metals and providing macro support for the metal sector. However, industrial sentiment remained persistently bearish. The issue of Indonesia's nickel ore supplementary quotas remained unresolved, and the market held strong expectations for ample nickel supply in the future...

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] Funds Drive SS Futures Higher, Spot Market Trade Sluggish According to SMM news on July 7, SS futures maintained a pattern of consolidating on a strong note overall. Fundamentals did not change significantly. Driven by fund-side operations, SS extended its strengthening trend from the previous trading day. As of the close, the most-traded SS contract settled at 14,775 yuan/mt. In the spot market, although SS futures continued to run strong, spot fundamentals did not improve noticeably: while spot offers were raised following the rally, after low-priced cargoes saw concentrated deals yesterday, market trading weakened again today, with confidence in the outlook remaining insufficient. The most-traded SS futures contract. At 10:15 am, SS2608 was at 14,790 yuan/mt, up 65 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 280-680 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price for Wuxi cold-rolled 201/2B coil was flat; for cold-rolled slit-edge 304/2B coil, the average price in Wuxi rose 50 yuan/mt, and in Foshan it rose 50 yuan/mt; Wuxi cold-rolled 316L/2B coil price was flat; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil, Wuxi offers were flat; cold-rolled 430/2B coil in both Wuxi and Foshan was flat. This week, the tug-of-war between macro and industry logic dominated futures moves. US inflation data pulled back, expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes cooled further, and the US dollar index weakened, overall boosting commodity and nonferrous metals valuations and providing macro support for the metals sector. However, sentiment on the industry side remained persistently bearish, …

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Bottom Out, Stainless Steel Market Inquiry Activity Picks Up According to SMM on July 6, SS futures overall bottomed out during the session. The SS futures dropped sharply in the Friday night session but quickly recovered after the Monday daytime session opened. As of the close, the most-traded SS contract settled at 14,740 yuan/mt. In the spot market, morning stainless steel quotes were subdued by the Friday night decline, with overall offers on the low side. As futures surged, spot quotes were also restored in tandem. Market inquiry activity picked up notably, though transactions were mostly concentrated on low-priced cargoes. SS futures most-traded contract. At 10:15 a.m., SS2608 was at 14,725 yuan/mt, up 70 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi ranged 245-795 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price for Wuxi cold-rolled 201/2B coil was flat; cold-rolled trimmed edge 304/2B coil average prices were flat in Wuxi and Foshan; the price for cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in Wuxi was flat; the quote for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil in Wuxi was flat; cold-rolled 430/2B coil was flat in both Wuxi and Foshan. This week, the tug-of-war between macro factors and industry fundamentals dominated futures movements. US inflation data pulled back, and market expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes further cooled, the US dollar...