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- Macro and Fundamentals Resonated, LME Zinc Posted a Three-Day Winning Streak [SMM Morning Meeting Summary]
[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Macro Factors and Fundamentals Resonated, and LME Zinc Logged a Three-Day Winning Streak] Overnight, LME zinc logged a three-day winning streak, with support from the 20-day moving average below and resistance from the 40/60-day moving averages above. Overnight, as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may have de-escalated, the US dollar index moved lower, nonferrous metals rose, and LME zinc inventory continued destocking......
Apr 1, 2026 08:55 - Review of Aluminum Prices in Q1 2026 [SMM Analysis]
I. Review of SHFE Aluminum Price Trends in Q1 2026 (by Stage) January: The market’s core trading logic deviated from fundamentals and centered on macro expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts Fundamentals: Chinese New Year off-season + demand vacuum + inventory buildup Aluminum prices continued to climb and hit a record high for the period, while downstream profit margins came under pressure, leading to weaker demand for primary aluminum. Repeated environmental protection-driven production restrictions in some regions constrained demand for raw materials. Aluminum social inventory continued to accumulate. As of end-January, SMM aluminum ingot social inventory rose to 782,000 mt, a high for the same period in the past three years. Macro front: In January, the US Fed was in an interest rate cut cycle, and the US dollar weakened significantly. Large amounts of capital flowed into the commodities futures market, driving broad commodity prices higher; together with favorable support from China’s consumption stimulus policies, this jointly supported aluminum prices. February: The market’s core trading logic deviated from fundamentals and centered on macro expectations for the US Fed to keep interest rates unchanged Fundamentals: Aluminum prices were generally in the doldrums. Affected by the Chinese New Year holiday, procurement demand from China’s downstream processing enterprises dropped sharply, aluminum plants showed stronger willingness to cast ingots, and aluminum social inventory continued to accumulate. After the Chinese New Year holiday, SMM aluminum ingot social inventory rose to 1.108 million mt. Elevated inventory levels struggled to provide effective upward support for aluminum prices. Macro front: Cooling expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts pushed the US dollar index higher, and profit-taking outflows triggered a pullback in aluminum prices, further reinforcing their weak and rangebound trend. March: The market’s core trading logic repeatedly switched between supply-side disruptions in the Middle East and demand-side suppression. The tug-of-war between longs and shorts intensified, dominating aluminum prices in a volatile pattern of “surge - correction - rebound.” Supply side: I. Production cut events occurred frequently on the overseas supply side, and disruptions continued to intensify. Mozal entered maintenance status. Qatar Aluminium Smelter announced its decision to stop further production cuts and maintain a 60% operating rate. Aluminium Bahrain initiated shutdowns of Production Lines 1, 2, and 3 under controlled and safe conditions, and the market later heard that Line 4 might also face production cuts or suspension. EGA’s aluminum plant facilities suffered severe damage, and the extent of the damage was still under assessment. The market expected it to undergo large-scale production cuts or suspensions. Ongoing concerns over continued tightening on the overseas supply side became the core driver pushing aluminum prices higher in stages. II. As the Middle East conflict continued to escalate, shipping security in the Strait of Hormuz drew widespread market attention, further increasing uncertainty over global aluminum supply and continuously injecting a geopolitical risk premium into aluminum prices, supporting prices fluctuating at highs. Demand Side: 1. From a macro perspective, concerns over stagflation continued to intensify, risk-off market sentiment picked up, dragging aluminum prices into a pullback and limiting upside room. 2. Hidden concerns on the demand side outside China became more prominent. Some downstream processing enterprises were constrained by multiple factors, triggering market concerns over weak demand: 1) high aluminum prices significantly suppressed downstream purchase willingness, hindering demand release; 2) shortages of energy resources such as natural gas and oil put some processing enterprises under pressure to reduce or suspend production; 3) costs such as freight rates rose sharply, and together with higher smelting costs, further squeezed the profit margins of downstream enterprises, indirectly suppressing demand release. Source: SMM
Mar 31, 2026 19:27 - [SMM Daily Chromium Review] The Ferrochrome Market Remained Stable, and There Was No Adjustment in Ore Prices for the Time Being
[SMM Daily Chrome Review: The Ferrochrome Market Remained Stable, and Ore-Side Prices Saw No Adjustment for the Time Being] News on March 31, 2026: Fluctuations in the ferrochrome and chrome ore markets were limited...
Mar 31, 2026 17:19 - [SMM Nickel Midday Commentary] On March 31, Nickel Prices Fell Sharply as the State Administration for Market Regulation Addressed “Involution-Style” Competition in Key Industries
SMM Nickel News, March 31: Macro and market news: (1) The State Administration for Market Regulation issued a notice on further implementing the Anti-Unfair Competition Law of the People's Republic of China. The notice mentioned comprehensively addressing "involution-style" competition. It said various anti-unfair competition measures would be used in a coordinated manner to focus on preventing and curbing "involution-style" competition in key industries and sectors such as the platform economy, PV, lithium battery, and NEV. (2) Iran's parliamentary National Security Commission passed a bill proposing to charge fees on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The plan included implementing financial arrangements and a charging system in Iranian rial, and banning US and Israeli vessels from passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Spot market: On March 31, the SMM price of #1 refined nickel fell by 750 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average price premium of Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 3,750 yuan/mt, down 1,000 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the spot premiums for mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel were in the range of -800-400 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2605) continued to decline in early trading and closed the morning session at 134,370 yuan/mt, down 1.13%. Supply side, tightening in nickel ore has evolved into dual cost support from "ore + taxes," providing solid support for the bottom of nickel prices, but weak end-use demand and continued inventory accumulation still capped upside room for nickel prices. Nickel prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term, with the core trading range of the most-traded SHFE nickel contract at 133,000-143,000 yuan/mt.
Mar 31, 2026 11:35 - Dovish Remarks From the US Fed Drove Zinc Prices Higher [SMM Morning Meeting Summary]
[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Dovish Remarks by the US Fed Drove Zinc Prices Higher] Overnight, LME zinc recorded a bullish candlestick, with the 20-day daily average above acting as resistance. Overnight, dovish remarks by the US Fed boosted market sentiment, while LME Cash-3M shifted to a backwardation structure......
Mar 31, 2026 08:56 ![[SMM Conference] PbZn Conference 2026 Gathers Global Leaders to Navigate Evolving Market Dynamics](https://imgqn.smm.cn/production/admin/votes/imagesbznIX20260330170246.jpeg)
[SMM Conference] PbZn Conference 2026 Gathers Global Leaders to Navigate Evolving Market DynamicsOn March 27, the 2026 SMM (21st) Lead & Zinc Conference and Industry Expo, organized by SMM, wrapped up successfully at Howard Johnson Agile Plaza in Chengdu, Sichuan!
Mar 30, 2026 17:04
Announcements
SMM Clarification Statement SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "SMM" or "the Company"), as a professional spot market price reporting agency and information provider, has recently noticed the circulation of false information regarding the fairness of SMM's price assessment. To avoid market misunderstandings, maintain a healthy and transparent market environment, and protect the Company's legitimate rights and interests, SMM hereby makes the following solemn clarification and statement: I. The Difference Between Spot Prices and Futures Prices is a Normal Reflection of Market Mechanisms According to basic economic principles, spot prices reflect the immediate supply-demand relationship and deliverable transaction conditions of the underlying asset, while futures prices reflect market expectations for future supply and demand, including factors such as capital cost and carrying costs. Both follow the principle of "convergence at maturity," meaning that futures prices gradually converge towards spot prices as the contract expiration date approaches. Therefore, during the life of the contract, the difference between spot prices and futures prices, especially with far-month contracts, is a normal phenomenon under the market pricing mechanism. II. Historical Data Proves the Rationality of the Price Spread Structure To objectively present the facts, SMM has made a price spread analysis chart based on publicly available market data: The chart clearly shows that from September 2023 to 2025, the monthly price spread between the SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate average price and the GFEX lithium carbonate futures contract prices fluctuated between positive and negative territory, always remaining within a reasonable range, and exhibited a significant convergence trend as the contract expiration date approached. This fully aligns with the market rule of futures and spot price convergence. Comparing a certain periods' futures prices (especially those of far-month most-traded contracts) with spot assessment prices and concluding that there is a "consistent significant deviation" is fundamentally flawed in methodology and can easily mislead market judgment. Any behavior that selectively highlights short-term trends in the price spread without considering the broader context is partial and irresponsible, failing to reflect the overall market situation. III. Recent Market Risk Control Measures Recently, to maintain the stable operation of the lithium carbonate futures market and prevent potential risks, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, in accordance with its risk management rules, issued multiple notifications consecutively between November and December 2025, implementing a series of risk control measures for relevant contracts, including adjustments to transaction fee standards and trading limits. These measures represent the exchange's commitment to fulfill its self-regulatory duties in accordance with the law during specific market periods, aiming to promote the steady development of the market. IV. The Emergence, Nature, and Harm of False Information It is noteworthy that during this sensitive period, when the aforementioned risk control measures were being intensively implemented, a significant amount of false information began circulating on the Internet. While such information varies in content, it shares an identical core narrative: False claims have been made that SMM’s prices "consistently and significantly deviate from fair value and futures prices" and that "there are illegal benefit-related connections with certain institutions". These claims are entirely groundless. The timing and manner of their dissemination indicate that their purpose is not professional discussion but rather an attempt to exert improper pressure on SMM by confusing the price logic of spot and futures markets, interfere with the neutrality of spot price assessments, and consequently potentially mislead market expectations and disrupt the normal relationship between futures and spot prices. SMM hereby solemnly declares that SMM is always committed to price discovery in the spot market, does not participate in any futures market trading operations, and resolutely maintains market order. V. The Compliance, Neutrality, and Supervision Mechanisms of SMM's Price Assessment As a professional market price assessment agency, SMM always adheres to the principles of neutrality, objectivity, and fairness. SMM's price assessment methodology strictly follows the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) "Principles for Financial Benchmarks" and is subject to audits by independent third-party audit firms. In terms of internal governance, SMM has established a comprehensive firewall system to ensure that personnel and management involved in the price assessment process do not hold any related futures or spot positions, thereby eliminating conflicts of interest at an institutional level. SMM also has no history of any penalties from securities regulatory authorities for violations. We consistently maintain an open attitude towards market supervision based on facts. VI. Appeal to the Public SMM strongly condemns the recent malicious fabrication and dissemination of false information in the market, which damages SMM's commercial reputation and attempts to disrupt the order of the futures and spot markets, and has initiated legal proceedings to protect its rights. Currently, SMM is comprehensively and continuously collecting and preserving evidence related to the infringements. For suspected infringing acts, the Company will take all legal measures, including but not limited to reporting to relevant regulatory authorities and filing complaints with relevant online platforms, to resolutely pursue the legal liability of the infringing parties. SMM reserves the right to pursue all legal consequences against the relevant responsible parties. We once again call on all market participants to enhance their legal awareness and professional discernment capabilities, obtain information from authoritative channels, analyze the market rationally, resolutely resist and refuse to spread any unverified and unfounded rumors, and jointly maintain a fair, orderly, and healthy development environment for the industry chain. SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. Dec 26, 2025
Dec 26, 2025 17:30