In January 2026, the European Union and India reached a historic Free Trade Agreement (FTA), with the elimination of steel tariffs of up to 22% becoming a major market focus. However, clearing the policy fog of "bilateral exemptions" and analyzing actual export and carbon emission data reveals that the steel industry faces a highly asymmetric trade reshaping. This seemingly fair reduction is actually Europe trading a "capped" ticket for India's "uncapped" massive incremental market.

Following the conclusion of the India-EU FTA in late January 2026, tariffs on iron and steel products—previously as high as 22%—are set to be eliminated across almost all tariff lines. This agreement aims to integrate Indian suppliers more deeply into European value chains, although exporters must still navigate the newly enforced Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).

Platinum prices stopped falling and rebounded, with the most-traded PT2606 platinum futures contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange up 1.34% in early trading, closing at 567.9 yuan/gram. In the spot market, spot platinum prices against PT2606 were quoted at discounts of 10-13 yuan/gram, or at discounts of 1-4 yuan/gram against the Shanghai Gold Exchange’s Sell 1. Spot discounts widened slightly from the previous trading day. As for spot transactions, according to SMM, some traders holding cargo said that quotes at around a 10 yuan/gram discount to the June contract were difficult to conclude, and discounts needed to be lowered to above 12 yuan/gram. End-users made just-in-time procurement, and the spot market was still dominated by small-lot transactions, with overall trading normal.

SMM Nickel News, March 4: Macro and Market Updates: (1) Trump: After the 15% tariff deadline, we will gradually announce tariffs for different countries; we will raise tariff agreements for certain countries. (2) US Fed—① Kashkari: With the clouds of war looming, we originally expected one interest rate cut in 2026, but now it is uncertain. ② Williams: The US Fed will have to consider the spillover effects of the Iran issue on foreign markets and trading partners. He still believed rates were slightly above the neutral rate. Spot Market: On March 4, SMM #1 refined nickel prices rose 450 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. For spot premiums, the average for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 6,900 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the range for domestically mainstream brands of electrodeposited nickel was -300-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2605) fluctuated and strengthened in early trading, and closed at 137,410 yuan/mt, up 0.12%. After a consecutive pullback, nickel prices showed initial signs of stabilizing. News that Indonesia may additionally supplement quotas weakened the earlier supply tightens narrative, but cost support remained solid. In the short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract was expected to fluctuate around 140,000 yuan/mt.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,146/mt and hit an early high of $13,153/mt. Thereafter, the center of copper prices gradually moved lower, dipping to $12,975/mt near the close, and finally settled at $13,027.5/mt, up 0.49%. Trading volume rose to 25,000 lots, and open interest to 306,000 lots, down 1,096 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to bears reducing positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2604 contract opened at 101,640 yuan/mt and climbed early to 102,080 yuan/mt, then fluctuated downward to a low of 101,200 yuan/mt, followed by wide swings, and finally settled at 101,700 yuan/mt, up 0.45%. Trading volume rose to 44,800 lots, and open interest to 195,000 lots, down 213 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to bears reducing positions.

[SMM Lead Morning Brief: Geopolitical Risks Ease, Lead Prices Recover the Previous Day’s Losses] SMM, March 5: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,937/mt. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East persisted, but the impact of bearish news weakened...