[SMM Tin Morning Briefing: The Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Opened Slightly Higher in the Night Session and Then Fluctuated Downward, While Downstream Enterprises Concentrated Their Restocking on Dips]

In January 2026, the European Union and India reached a historic Free Trade Agreement (FTA), with the elimination of steel tariffs of up to 22% becoming a major market focus. However, clearing the policy fog of "bilateral exemptions" and analyzing actual export and carbon emission data reveals that the steel industry faces a highly asymmetric trade reshaping. This seemingly fair reduction is actually Europe trading a "capped" ticket for India's "uncapped" massive incremental market.

Following the conclusion of the India-EU FTA in late January 2026, tariffs on iron and steel products—previously as high as 22%—are set to be eliminated across almost all tariff lines. This agreement aims to integrate Indian suppliers more deeply into European value chains, although exporters must still navigate the newly enforced Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).

Since the "Regulation on Ensuring Payments to Small and Medium-sized Enterprises" officially came into effect on June 1, 2025, the automotive industry has responded swiftly. Seventeen mainstream automakers, including GAC, FAW, Dongfeng, and BYD, have publicly committed to uniformly shortening the payment terms for suppliers to within 60 days. This seemingly simple adjustment to payment terms is actually reshaping the underlying logic of the automotive supply chain. Especially for upstream battery cell manufacturers, its impact has gone beyond the level of capital turnover, touching the core lifeline of industrial development.

SMM Nickel News on June 4: Macro News: (1) Tariffs: ① The Trump administration raised tariffs on steel and aluminum to 50%, effective from June 4; ② Sources: The US presented Vietnam with a "long and stringent" list of demands during tariff negotiations; ③ Sources: The EU has not received a letter from the US requesting "best trade offers"; ④ Brazilian President: If no agreement on tariffs is reached with the US, Brazil will resort to the WTO or take reciprocal measures; ⑤ The India-EU Free Trade Agreement is accelerating, with consensus reached on nearly half of the issues. (2) The Ministry of Commerce and four other departments organized the 2025 New Energy Vehicle (NEV) Rural Promotion Campaign. Market entities in various fields, including NEV production, sales, finance, battery charging/swapping, and after-sales services, are encouraged to participate. By integrating policy tools such as trade-in policies and measures to address shortcomings in charging/swapping infrastructure in counties, an integrated sales promotion plan of "car purchase discounts + energy use support + service guarantees" will be customized, and an after-sales service network covering the entire lifecycle of car purchase, use, and maintenance will be improved. Spot Market: Today, the SMM 1# refined nickel price is 122,100-124,750 yuan/mt, with an average price of 123,425 yuan/mt, up 575 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The quotation range for spot premiums of Jinchuan #1 refined nickel is 2,400-2,600 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 2,500 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The quotation range for premiums and discounts of Russian refined nickel is 100-600 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 350 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (NI2507) opened lower and closed higher in the night session, ending at 121,860 yuan/mt, up slightly by 0.25%. It continued to strengthen during the day session, closing at 122,700 yuan/mt by 11:30, up 0.94%. In the medium and long term, the global overcapacity of nickel capacity remains unresolved, with the nickel market under triple pressures of "high supply, weak demand, and tight funding". In the short term, the bottom of the oscillation range is seen at 118,000 yuan/mt, while the top is under pressure at 123,000 yuan/mt.

[Tariff Summary] ① The Trump administration raised tariffs on steel and aluminum to 50%, effective from the 4th; ② Sources: The US presented Vietnam with a "long and demanding" list of requirements during tariff negotiations; ③ Sources: The EU has not received a letter from the US requesting "best trade offers"; ④ Brazilian President: If an agreement on tariffs cannot be reached with the US, Brazil will resort to the WTO or take reciprocal measures; ⑤ The India-EU Free Trade Agreement is accelerating, with consensus reached on nearly half of the issues.