India’s steel market in 2026 is expected to remain balanced, with demand slightly outpacing supply. Domestic consumption will absorb most output, while imports decline overall and exports increase modestly as a balancing mechanism. Supported by strong growth and infrastructure investment, India is transitioning toward a demand-led steel market with solid long-term potential.

[SMM Daily Brief Review of Coking Coal and Coke] In terms of supply, coking costs at coke producers increased, profit per mt of coke narrowed somewhat, and coke producer inventories still needed to be drawn down, weighing on their production enthusiasm. However, downstream demand improved somewhat, and coke producers were actively making shipments. Demand side, the country's important meetings have concluded, and blast furnaces previously subject to production restrictions resumed production one after another, increasing rigid demand for coke. However, uncertainty still remained in finished steel consumption, and most steel mills remained cautious in their coke procurement. In summary, the supply-demand imbalance in the coke market eased somewhat, and cost support strengthened. In the short term, the coke market may temporarily remain stable.

According to a survey by the World Steel Association (WSA), the main reasons for the consistently low steel capacity utilisation rate in Thailand are due to the reliability, efficiency, and cost of steel mill production. In 2024, the local steel capacity utilisation rate in Thailand was less than 30%, still requiring a large amount of imports to meet domestic steel demand, placing the country in a net import position. At the same time, the absolute value of per capita crude steel consumption in Thailand remains at a relatively low level, with significant room for growth. The local crude steel capacity utilisation rate is low, and in January 2025, the Board of Investment (BOI) of Thailand announced the latest version of the investment promotion guidelines, stating that applications for new long and flat steel product projects would be cancelled, allowing only existing projects to apply for investment incentives based on smart and sustainable industrial standards. Moreover, the incentive levels were uniformly adjusted from the previous A4 or B grade to B grade, reflecting the difficulty in increasing new steel capacity. Therefore, although some anti-dumping investigations have been initiated, the status as a net importer may be hard to change in the short term...

According to the survey by the World Steel Association (WSA), the main reasons for Thailand's consistently low steel capacity utilisation rate are the reliability, efficiency, and cost of steel mill production. In 2024, Thailand's domestic steel capacity utilisation rate was less than 30%, requiring substantial imports to meet domestic steel demand, leaving the country in a net import position. Meanwhile, Thailand's per capita crude steel consumption remains at an absolutely low level, indicating significant growth potential. However, the local crude steel capacity utilisation rate is relatively low. Additionally, in January 2025, the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) announced the latest investment promotion guide, which stated that applications for new projects involving long and flat steel products would no longer be accepted. Only existing projects meeting smart and sustainable industrial standards are eligible for investment incentives, and the incentive level has been uniformly downgraded from A4 or B in the previous guide to B. This reflects the difficulty in increasing new steel capacity. Therefore, although some anti-dumping investigations have been initiated, the status of being a net importing country may be difficult to change in the short term...

[SMM Daily Review on Coal and Coke] In terms of supply, the eleventh round of coke price cuts has begun. Profit margins among coke enterprises have diverged, with some experiencing losses. However, most coke enterprises remain marginally profitable due to concessions on raw material costs and have largely maintained previous production levels. On the demand side, blast furnaces in the Tangshan region have gradually resumed operations following environmental protection-driven production restrictions. Although steel mill operations have slightly increased, the Two Sessions policies provided no significant support, making it difficult for steel prices to improve. Moreover, most steel mills still hold high raw material inventories, leading to strong pressure on coke prices. In summary, coke supply remains ample, and the fundamentals are still relatively loose. In the short term, the coke market may fluctuate downward, with the eleventh round of price cuts likely to be implemented this week.