This week, finished steel continued its gradual decline, while raw materials began to stabilize, with coking coal rebounding to some extent. During the week, rumors about a coal mine accident in Shanxi and customs clearance restrictions at the Mongolian border spread, boosting sentiment. Coupled with the China Mineral Resources talks, the raw materials side rebounded from lows. In the second half of the week, as rumors of maintenance at steel mills across various regions emerged, negative feedback expectations intensified somewhat, and raw materials pulled back. Approaching the weekend, however, the 10th round of coke price increases was initiated, pushing coking coal and coke futures higher. In the spot market, the off-season characteristics of end-users became increasingly evident, with the market restocking at low prices as needed. With spot prices remaining relatively firm, the spot-futures price spread continued to widen...

[SMM Coking Coal and Coke Daily Brief] Coking Coal Market: Linfen low-sulphur coking coal offers are at 2,050 yuan/mt. For coking coal, recently the resumption of production at mines in Qinyuan County has been slow, and some mines have further cut production to varying degrees after resuming operations. Coking coal supply remains tight. However, downstream buyers are showing fear of high prices, with sales of some high-priced coal types turning sluggish. Online auctions have seen a marked increase in failed lots. In the short term, the coking coal market may start to stabilize. Coke Market: The nationwide average price of quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke (dry quenched) is 2,090 yuan/mt. Regarding news, coke enterprises in various regions have initiated the tenth round of coke price increases, to be effective from 00:00 on July 6, 2026. In terms of supply, the ninth round of coke price increases have been implemented, leaving most coke producers profitable and with moderate production enthusiasm. However, downstream purchasing enthusiasm has weakened, and traders are actively selling, resulting in an increase in coke supply. On the demand side, finished steel prices at steel mills have been drifting lower, and steel mill profits have further narrowed, prompting mills to start cutting hot metal production. With hot metal production expected to decline further, rigid demand for coke is weakening. Overall, market sentiment has weakened. In the short term, the coke market may be generally stable with a slight rise, while the tenth round of price increases may face some bargaining. [SMM Steel]

[SMM Coking Coal and Coke Daily Brief] Coking Coal Market: Linfen low-sulphur coking coal is quoted at 2,050 yuan/mt. Regarding coking coal, the resumption of production at mines that had previously halted or cut output has been slow, and with strict safety supervision, supply is unlikely to see significant improvement, providing strong support for prices of key coal types. However, finished steel prices have pulled back, and downstream coke and steel companies are resistant to high-priced resources. In the online auction market, some high-priced coal types have failed to sell. Coke Market: The nationwide average price of quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke (dry quenching) is 2,090 yuan/mt. On the news front, mainstream steel mills in Hebei and Shandong regions have accepted an increase of 50 yuan/mt for wet-quenched coke and 55 yuan/mt for dry-quenched coke, to be implemented from 00:00 on July 1, 2026. Supply side, the ninth round of coke price increases has been implemented, with most coke enterprises profitable and operating at moderate rates. In addition, coke enterprises are proactively selling, keeping their own coke inventories within reasonable ranges. Demand side, hot metal output at steel mills is expected to decline, weakening the rigid demand for coke. Moreover, steel mill profits are thin, limiting their ability to absorb further price hikes. In summary, recent steel price weakness has led to a slight pullback in market sentiment. In the short term, the coke market is likely to remain generally stable with slight rise. [SMM Steel]

[Vietnam] Vietnam’s import scrap market softened this week, with Japanese H2 scrap falling to around 375 USD/tonne CFR Vietnam, down about 7 USD/tonne week on week. US-origin HMS 80:20 bulk scrap stood near 383 USD/tonne CFR Vietnam, also down around 7 USD/tonne. Weak Vietnamese finished steel demand kept mills cautious, with buyers delaying bookings and waiting for further price corrections. Although Japanese suppliers remained firm due to limited scrap generation, Vietnamese buying ideas stayed lower, leaving a clear bid-offer gap.

[India] Indian domestic HRC trade prices stayed stable, at around 601 USD/tonne EXW Mumbai and 617 USD/tonne EXW Chennai. Monsoon-related weak demand kept buyers focused on need-based restocking, while inventories remained high across the supply chain. Mills may raise July base prices by only around 8 USD/tonne. High prices, elevated stocks and rising Chinese finished steel imports are expected to keep the market bearish until late October.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Drift Higher, Spot Stainless Steel Transactions Remain Sluggish According to SMM on June 29, SS futures held up well. Base metals futures overall showed strength, and SS futures also rose in tandem. As of the close, the most-traded SS futures contract settled at 14,770 yuan/mt. In the spot market, although SS futures recovered somewhat, affected by recent market fluctuations, downstream wait-and-see sentiment was heavy. Coupled with already weak demand in the off-season, spot prices mostly held steady and transactions remained sluggish. SS futures most-traded contract. At 10:15 AM, SS2608 was at 14,715 yuan/mt, up 45 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 355-855 yuan/mt. In the spot market, average prices were unchanged for: Wuxi cold-rolled 201/2B coil; cold-rolled 304/2B raw edge coil in Wuxi and Foshan; Wuxi cold-rolled 316L/2B coil; Wuxi hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil; and cold-rolled 430/2B coil in both Wuxi and Foshan. This week, stainless steel futures and spot prices consolidated with a weaker bias. Ex-China macro headwinds, coupled with industry sentiment disruptions, heated up market pessimism, with off-season fundamentals fully evident. Overall, the pattern was one of macro pressures weighing on futures, weakening off-season demand, traders cutting prices to reduce inventory, supply contraction underpinning inventory levels, and shrinking steel mill profits. Futures were dragged lower by monetary policy and raw material rumors, while spot prices sustained resilience supported by steel mills holding prices firm. However, end-user transactions were sluggish, and the overall market was bearish. Futures…