SMM July 4 News: Metal market: Overnight, domestic base metals nearly all rose. SHFE copper rose 0.14%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.6%, SHFE lead rose 0.38%, SHFE zinc rose 0.87%, SHFE tin rose 3.8%. SHFE nickel dipped 0.02%. Additionally, the most-traded alumina futures fell 0.07%, and the benchmark casting aluminum futures rose 0.24%. Overnight, ferrous metals mostly rose. Stainless steel fell 1.85%, iron ore rose 0.27%, rebar rose 0.39%. Hot-rolled coil rose 0.4%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.21%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 1.6%. Overnight, in the overseas market, LME base metals all rose. LME copper rose 0.54%. LME aluminum rose 0.23%, LME lead rose 1.04%. LME zinc rose 2.17%. LME tin rose 4.99%. LME nickel rose 0.4%. Overnight, precious metals: COMEX gold rose 1.49%, with a weekly gain of 2.22%; COMEX silver rose 2.87%, with a weekly positive close and a gain of 5.26%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 0.81%, with a weekly gain of 3.5%; the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 1.61%, with a weekly positive close and a gain of 8.82%. J.P. Morgan stated that gold prices may be constrained in the short term due to weakening demand and are expected to remain range-bound. The main reasons are reduced purchasing power in key demand areas and gold's renewed sensitivity to real interest rate changes, which may cap further price increases. However, the bank maintains a bullish view for the medium and long term. Gold is expected to gradually rebound in H2 2026, with an average price around $4,300 per ounce in Q3, rising to about $4,500 in Q4. Looking ahead to 2027, J.P. Morgan believes gold prices are likely to continue their upward trend, driven by factors including continued central bank purchasing, stronger physical demand, and persistent long-term structural allocation needs. These factors will underpin gold's long-term appeal as a safe-haven and reserve asset. As of 7:41 AM on July 4, overnight closing prices: Macro front Domestic side: [Li Qiang: Take more forceful measures and actions in building a modern industrial system, accelerating high-level technological self-reliance, building a strong domestic market, deepening reforms, and expanding opening-up.] On July 1, Li Qiang, Premier of the State Council and Secretary of the Party Leadership Group, presided over a meeting of the State Council Party Leadership Group to study and implement the spirit of General Secretary Xi Jinping's important speech at the celebration of the 105th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of China and Xi Jinping's thoughts on party building. The meeting emphasized the need to strive for new achievements in high-quality development, strengthen initiative and a sense of urgency in work, and take more robust measures and actions in building a modern industrial system, accelerating self-reliance in high-level science and technology, developing a strong domestic market, and deepening reform and expanding opening up. It called for taking solid action, shouldering responsibilities, and striving to carry forward the baton of history, so as to make greater contributions to building a strong country and achieving national rejuvenation. (Xinhua News Agency) [The State Council: Increasing Efforts in Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Transformation in Key Industries such as Steel and Non-Ferrous Metals to Achieve Energy Savings of More Than 150 Million mt of Standard Coal] Recently, the State Council issued the “15th Five-Year Plan for Building a Beautiful China,” clarifying the overall requirements, targets and indicators, key tasks, and major projects for comprehensively advancing the building of a Beautiful China during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. The Plan proposes that by 2030, the quality of the ecological environment will be comprehensively improved, and new significant progress will be made in building a Beautiful China. Green production and lifestyles will be essentially in place, the carbon peak target will be met as scheduled, total emissions of major pollutants will continue to decline, comprehensive solid waste management capacity and level will be significantly enhanced, urban and rural living environments will be notably improved, the diversity, stability, and sustainability of ecosystems will be continuously strengthened, nuclear and radiation safety levels will keep rising, national ecological security will be effectively guaranteed, an ecological and environmental governance system adapted to the requirements of building a Beautiful China will be steadily refined, a number of demonstration models for building a Beautiful China will be established, and the people’s sense of gain, happiness, and security from the ecological environment will be continuously enhanced. It also makes an outlook on the 2035 targets and proposes accelerating the formation of the overall layout for building a Beautiful China. (Xinhua News Agency) The Plan mentions increasing efforts in energy conservation and carbon reduction transformation in key industries such as thermal power, steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, chemicals, and building materials, promoting and popularizing energy-saving and low-carbon technologies, and achieving energy savings of more than 150 million mt of standard coal. With the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and surrounding areas as the focus, industrial coal-fired boilers with a capacity of 65 steam tonnes per hour or below will be gradually phased out. The substitution of clean energy for coal-fired boilers and industrial kilns in industries such as food, textiles, and papermaking will be advanced. [Ministry of Finance and Two Other Departments: Adjusting Vehicle and Vessel Tax Preferential Policies for Energy-Saving Vehicles and NEVs] On July 2, the Ministry of Finance, the State Taxation Administration, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued an announcement on adjusting vehicle and vessel tax preferential policies for energy-saving vehicles and new energy vehicles. It states that from January 1, 2027, the policy of halving vehicle and vessel tax for energy-saving vehicles will be abolished, and the exemption from vehicle and vessel tax for pure electric commercial vehicles, plug-in hybrid (including extended-range) vehicles, and fuel cell commercial vehicles will be abolished. Vehicles of the above types newly acquired by taxpayers or acquired before the implementation of this announcement shall be subject to vehicle and vessel tax in accordance with the Vehicle and Vessel Tax Law of the People’s Republic of China, its implementation regulations, and other relevant provisions. [Central Bank: To Conduct 1,000 Billion Yuan Outright Reverse Repo on July 6 with 3-Month Term] To keep banking system liquidity ample, on July 6, 2026, the People's Bank of China will conduct 1,000 billion yuan of outright reverse repo operations through fixed quantity, rate tender, and multiple price bidding, with a term of 3 months (91 days). The maturity date is October 5, 2026 (postponed in case of holidays). (Jinshi Data APP) On the dollar front: The overnight US dollar index edged up 0.03% to 100.91. For the week, the US dollar index fell, dropping 0.44% for the week, the largest weekly decline since mid-April. The reason was a significant cooling in the US June employment data, which led the market to lower short-term Fed rate hike expectations, causing the dollar index to fall this week. Against a weaker dollar, the euro rose to $1.1440, up about 0.5% on the week; sterling rose to $1.3352, up about 1.1% on the week, its best performance in nearly three months. The yen rebounded from near a 40-year low, with USD/JPY briefly pulling back to around 161 but remaining at high levels. Japan continued to release signals of foreign exchange intervention, with both finance and cabinet officials stating they are closely monitoring the market and maintaining readiness to intervene. Analysts pointed out that the dollar's trend has been notably influenced by employment data and interest rate expectations. If further economic data continues to weaken, the dollar could still face further pressure, but whether the yen can sustain its rebound still depends on the US-Japan interest rate differential and Japanese policy actions. (Jinshi Data APP) Fed mouthpiece Nick Timiraos said: Trump stated that he believes Fed Chairman Walsh is on the dovish side within the FOMC. The previous day, White House National Economic Council Director Hassett made similar remarks. A week earlier, Treasury Secretary Bessent expressed hope that the Fed would keep an "open attitude" toward inflation and predicted the Fed would ease policy this year. A new era of "forward guidance"... (Jinshi Data APP) BNP Paribas Chief Economist Isabelle Mateos y Lago said: "If the July non-farm payrolls are very strong, close to or above 130,000, then I think the July meeting will be full of suspense. The uncertainty may not be that high now, but in my view, the case for a Fed rate hike still stands." Before the start of the July 4 holiday, short-term interest rate futures markets priced in about a 20% chance of a Fed rate hike at the July 29 meeting, down from 33% before the non-farm payrolls report. The market still expects the US Fed to raise interest rates by 25 basis points this year, but the earliest hike would be in December. On the European Central Bank, Lagarde said: “The baseline expectation remains another rate hike in September. However, it is notable that Governing Council members speaking at the Sintra conference did not rule out the possibility of not implementing this additional hike.” She warned that the normalization of energy supplies could take half a year or longer to take effect, and eurozone inflation could accelerate again. Even so, she sees no pressures on consumer prices beyond energy-affected areas. Allianz Chief Economist Ludovic Subran said: “US non-farm payrolls data is actually weak, but I still think inflation will peak above 3.7%, and AI, fiscal stimulus, and the energy sector are still supporting economic growth. The US Fed may have to raise rates in September. I think this is the real divergence between Europe and the US.” Subran believes that the ECB will not act again after last month's rate hike. “That was an insurance hike, but from the current data, it seems to have passed,” he said, “the traumatic effects of the (Iran) war will take time to manifest, and the economy is still bearing the costs of the war, but the situation is much better now than a few weeks ago.” (Jin10 Data APP) Other currencies: ECB Governing Council member Muller said that the ECB is in a favorable position after last month's rate hike as falling oil prices ease price pressures in the eurozone. Muller said that while it is too early to predict the next two meetings in July and September, officials made clear that “we are not entering a new rate-hiking cycle.” Muller said: “For now, we are in a favorable position. The balance of risks is also at a reasonable level.” Muller added: “Falling oil prices will ease services inflation pressure,” and “we are not yet seeing second-round effects.” (Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: Next week will see the release of Switzerland's June seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, the Eurozone July Sentix Investor Confidence Index, the Eurozone May PPI m/m, the Eurozone May retail sales m/m, the US June S&P Global Services PMI final, the US June ISM non-manufacturing PMI, the US June Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, Germany's May seasonally adjusted industrial output m/m, the UK June Halifax seasonally adjusted house price index m/m, France's May trade balance, the US ADP employment change for the week ending June 20, the US May trade balance, China's June foreign exchange reserves, Japan's May trade balance, the New Zealand RBNZ interest rate decision due July 8, the US May wholesale sales m/m, China's June CPI y/y, China's June PPI y/y, Germany's May seasonally adjusted trade balance, the US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 4, the US June existing home sales annualized, Germany's June CPI m/m final, France's June CPI m/m final, Switzerland's June consumer confidence index, Canada's June employment change, China's June M2 money supply y/y, among other data releases. In addition, next week attention should also be paid to: 900 billion yuan in outright reverse repos maturing today; speeches by US Fed Governor Waller, ECB Executive Board member Schnabel, ECB Governing Council member Wunsch, and Riksbank Deputy Governor Seim; Turkey hosting the NATO summit through July 8; the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rate decision; RBNZ Governor Bremann's monetary policy press conference; the US Fed's release of its monetary policy meeting minutes; the ECB's release of its June monetary policy meeting minutes; remarks by FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams; and remarks by 2026 FOMC voting member and Dallas Fed President Logan. Crude oil: Overnight, both oil futures edged up, with WTI up 0.13% and Brent up 0.19%. On a weekly basis: WTI futures posted a fourth consecutive weekly decline, down 0.65% for the week; Brent futures also fell for a fourth straight week, down 0.91%. The crude oil market was relatively stable, with Brent crude consolidating near $72 per barrel as the market weighed the supply outlook in the Strait of Hormuz and progress in US-Iran negotiations. (Wall Street CN) Data from the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) show that in the week ended June 30, speculators in Brent crude futures cut their net long positions by 34,704 lots to 55,634 lots. Speculators in diesel futures reduced their net long positions by 2,664 lots to 57,852 lots. (Jin10 Data) Data showed that oil exports from the Gulf region in June increased by more than 3 million barrels per day (b/d) from May, surpassing 10 million b/d, but remained 40% below pre-war levels. The UAE led the recovery in the oil market, allowing millions of barrels of crude stranded in the Gulf to reach international markets, thereby enabling producers to raise output and bring prices down to pre-war levels. According to Kpler, combined exports of crude and condensate from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq and Iran jumped by more than 3.5 million b/d from May to 10.07 million b/d. Another freight analytics firm, Vortexa, estimated that oil shipments in June were 10.2 million b/d, up from 7 million b/d in May but still well below 16.5 million b/d a year earlier. Based on data from Kpler, Vortexa and LSEG, UAE crude exports hit a record 3.7 to 3.8 million b/d in June, more than 1 million b/d above May's levels. (Jin10 Data) In addition, three sources said that Venezuela's largest refinery, the 645,000 b/d Amuay refinery, resumed operations on Friday after a power outage and is currently processing about 140,000 b/d of crude oil, with the fluid catalytic cracking unit (FCC) also back online. Following two earthquakes last week that caused heavy casualties, multiple refineries in Venezuela were affected by power outages. Sources also said that the El Palito refinery, with a daily processing capacity of 146,000 barrels, has had power restored, but staff have not yet been able to restart the production units. (Jinshi Data APP) A Reuters survey showed that OPEC’s crude oil production rebounded sharply in June, up about 3.3 million barrels per day MoM to 19.43 million barrels per day, a clear rebound from May’s more-than-two-decade low, but still well below quota levels. The recovery in output mainly came from Gulf countries restoring supply, with Kuwait posting the largest increase; Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq also raised output in tandem. Nigeria and Libya likewise made small increases. The UAE exited OPEC on May 1 and is no longer included in the statistics. The report noted that the earlier Iran war and the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz had disrupted supply; the US subsequently lifted restrictions on vessels at Iranian ports, helping some output recover. Although OPEC+ had planned to increase production in June, the plan was not fully implemented due to the war. Overall, global crude oil supply was being repaired, but had not yet returned to normal levels. (Jinshi Data APP) Recommended Reading:

This week, rare earth oxide and metal prices outside China remained largely stable amid sluggish trading, while price fluctuations in China had not yet been transmitted. Industrial developments were intensive: India’s Mecwin teamed up with Germany’s Fraunhofer to lay out the entire NdFeB industry chain; Sweden approved a 25-year lease for the North Kärr rare earth mine, and Namibia’s Kieshoehe project verified deep potential. Iluka obtained an Australian government loan to advance the Eneabba refinery, and ULVAC, driven by surging demand in Europe and the United States, planned to build a new melting furnace production line in Japan. U.S. and Australian enterprises achieved breakthroughs in high-purity rare earth refining and hard disk recycling technologies, while Canada and Japan actively promoted cooperation on the critical minerals supply chain.

★Macro★ 01 ★★ [State-owned Major Bank's 5-Year Personal Certificate of Deposit 'Reappears' with Annualized Interest Rate of 1.6%] Although over the past two years, mainstream major state-owned banks and joint-stock banks ceased issuing certificates of deposit with terms over 3 years. But just as H2 began, a state-owned major bank reintroduced them. On July 1, Bank of China announced on its official website that it would issue the first tranche of personal certificates of deposit for 2026, offering seven terms: 1-month, 3-month, 6-month, 1-year, 2-year, 3-year, and 5-year. As long-term certificates of deposit issued by nationwide commercial banks have largely disappeared from the market, the issuance by Bank of China this time means that 5-year certificate of deposit products from state-owned major banks 'reappear.' 02 ★★ [Central Bank: Net Injection of 200 Billion Yuan via Medium-Term Lending Facility (MLF) in June] The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced on its official website today the liquidity injection through various central bank tools for June 2026. Data showed that in June, net injection via MLF was 200 billion yuan, net injection via standing lending facility (SLF) was 0 yuan, and net injection via other structural monetary policy tools was -137.2 billion yuan. Meanwhile, in open market operations, in June, net injection via government bond trading in the open market was 10 billion yuan, net injection via 7-day reverse repo was 582.6 billion yuan, net injection via central treasury cash management was 0 yuan, and net injection via reverse repos of other tenors was 300 billion yuan. ★Industry and Downstream★ 01 ★★ [NDRC's Liu Gang Leads Team to China Iron and Steel Association for Work Survey] To gain an in-depth understanding of the steel industry's development, on June 29, Liu Gang, Deputy Director of the NDRC Price Monitoring Center, led a team to CISA to conduct a work survey, and held discussions with Diao Li, Deputy Secretary General and Director of the Information and Statistics Department of CISA, as well as Li Xiaochuan and Li Baojun, Deputy Directors of the Information and Statistics Department. The two sides, considering the new characteristics of steel industry development at this stage, conducted in-depth exchanges on aspects such as price trends across the industry chain's upstream and downstream, compilation of price indices, and optimization of monitoring indicators. 02 ★★ [2025 Annual Dual-Credit Calculation Results for Chinese Passenger Vehicle Enterprises Released] Four departments, including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Commerce, the General Administration of Customs, and the State Administration for Market Regulation, recently jointly announced the 2025 average fuel consumption and NEV credit status of Chinese passenger vehicle enterprises. In 2025, a total of 108 passenger vehicle enterprises in China produced/imported 24.629 million passenger vehicles (including passenger NEVs, excluding export passenger vehicles), with an actual average fuel consumption under WLTC conditions of 3.38 liters per 100 kilometers, average carbon dioxide emissions of 80.22 grams per kilometer, positive fuel consumption credits of 53.553 million points, negative fuel consumption credits of 9.412 million points, positive NEV credits of 21.94 million points, and negative NEV credits of 1.599 million points. 03 ★★ [Changsha One Commercial-Residential Plot Sold at Reserve Price of 165 Million Yuan] On July 2, Changsha auctioned one commercial-residential plot in Furong District, with a planned GFA of 28,109.20 sq m (commercial-residential ratio of 1:9), a plot ratio of 5, a starting price of 165 million yuan, and a starting floor price of 5,884 yuan per sq m. Finally, the local private enterprise Hunan Dayou Real Estate Development Co., Ltd. won the plot at the reserve price of 165 million yuan. 04 ★★ [Nanjing One Residential Plot Sold at Reserve Price of 570 Million Yuan] On July 2, Nanjing auctioned one residential plot in the Qilin Area of Jiangning District, with a planned GFA of 56,779 sq m, a plot ratio of 2.4, a starting price of 570 million yuan, and a starting floor price of 10,041 yuan per sq m. Finally, Nanjing Science and Technology Innovation Investment Co., Ltd. won the plot at the reserve price of 570 million yuan. 05 ★★ [South Korea Imposes Anti-Dumping Duties on Carbon Steel and Alloy Steel HRC Involving China] According to China Trade Remedies Information, on June 23, South Korea's Ministry of Economy and Finance issued Order No. 35, officially imposing anti-dumping duties on carbon steel and alloy steel HRC originating from China and Japan, with the duty rate for Chinese products ranging from 28.16% to 33.10%; meanwhile, it approved the price undertakings proposed by three Japanese enterprises and six Chinese enterprises, and will not impose anti-dumping duties on enterprises that comply with the price undertakings. The announcement took effect on the date of its issuance. ★ Other Hot Topics ★ ⭕ [China's State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters Launches Level-IV Emergency Response for Flood and Typhoon Prevention in Hainan, Guangxi, and Guangdong] According to meteorological forecasts, the tropical depression over the South China Sea is expected to develop into a typhoon on July 2, make landfall on the eastern coast of Hainan Island on the afternoon or evening of July 3, and then make a second landfall on the coast of Guangxi or northern Vietnam on the afternoon or evening of July 4. As a result, it is expected that from July 3 to 5, parts of Hainan Island, Guangdong, and Guangxi will experience heavy to torrential rain, with localized areas seeing extremely heavy downpours. In accordance with the relevant provisions of the National Flood Control and Drought Relief Emergency Plan, the State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters decided to launch a Level-IV emergency response for flood and typhoon prevention in Hainan, Guangxi, and Guangdong at 12:00 on July 2, and dispatched a working group to Hainan for frontline guidance and assistance. ⭕ [US Treasuries Rise as Weak Employment Report Dampens Rate Hike Expectations] US Treasuries rose after a weaker-than-expected US employment report prompted traders to scale back expectations of interest rate hikes by the US Fed in the coming months. The two-year US Treasury yield, which is most sensitive to monetary policy changes, fell 6 basis points to 4.11%, while the 10-year yield fell 2 basis points to 4.46%. Interest rate swaps showed that traders expected the probability of the US Fed raising interest rates at its meeting later this month to be around 20%, down from 33% before the data release. The market was pricing in fewer than two 25-basis-point rate hikes by March 2027. ⭕ [US June Nonfarm Payrolls Increased by 57,000, Far Below Market Expectations] US nonfarm payrolls increased by 57,000 in June (estimate: 113,000; prior: 172,000). Private payrolls rose by 49,000 (prior: 97,000; estimate: 107,000). Manufacturing payrolls increased by 3,000 (prior: a decrease of 2,000), matching expectations; the forecast range of 15 surveyed economists was a decline of 1,000 to an increase of 10,000. ⭕ [Saudi Arabia's Crude Oil Exports Approach Pre-War Levels] Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports are near pre-war levels; as of Wednesday, the kingdom exported 6.3 million barrels per day over a six-day period. *This report is an original work and/or compilation work exclusively created by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. 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SMM July 2 News: Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh stated on Wednesday that US inflation upside risks have clearly cooled over the past four weeks, easing market concerns about aggressive rate hikes; he also indicated that no further forward guidance would be released on subsequent interest rate policy, refusing to disclose whether the US Fed needs to consider a rate hike at its next meeting; the US dollar weakened, and precious metals rebounded. As of around 16:09 on July 2, COMEX gold dropped 0.11% to $4,077.9/ounce; SHFE gold main contract rose 1.53% to 890.66 yuan/g; COMEX silver dropped 1.1% to $59.845/ounce; SHFE silver main contract rose 1.91% to 14,650 yuan/kg; silver T+D rose 2.95% to 14,551 yuan/kg. In the precious metals stock market, as of the close on July 2, the precious metals sector rose 4.21%, with individual stocks: Zhaojin Gold and Chifeng Gold hit their daily limit up, while Shanjin International, Xiaocheng Technology, Zhongjin Gold, and Western Gold led the gains. News [Warsh: Inflation Eases Over Past Four Weeks, AI Is Reshaping Economy, Forward Guidance Loses Necessity] On July 1, at the ECB's annual central bank forum in Sintra, Portugal, Warsh again clearly stated that the US Fed would not provide forward guidance on the future interest rate path , hoping that policymakers can engage in thorough discussions based on the latest data at each meeting, rather than previewing the policy direction to the market in advance. He said that US inflation risks had eased over the past four weeks, and the supply expansion brought by AI could profoundly change how the economy operates, with the US at the center of this transformation, but whether AI ultimately leads to inflation or deflation should be judged by the central bank based on data. Warsh said the US Fed is “charting a new path” and will no longer hint at the direction of interest rates in advance as it did in the past. He said: “We will hold our next meeting in four weeks, and I hope we can have a real family-style debate then.” He reiterated that forward guidance is not the right policy in the current economic situation, and the US Fed will continue to base its decisions on the latest economic data in the future, rather than committing to a policy path in advance. This means that the US Fed will rely more on real-time economic data rather than sending policy signals to the market in advance. Spot Market Silver In the spot market: On July 2, the reference average factory price of SMM 1# silver in the morning was 14,558 yuan/kg, up 3.35% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, overall offers remained firm early in the month, but transaction follow-through was slightly weak, and consumption performance fell short of expectations. As silver prices rebounded slightly, downstream wait-and-see sentiment intensified. In Shanghai, morning offers were mainly at TD+5 to +15 yuan/kg. Some smelters quoted on the high side, but actual buying interest was weak, with most deals clustered around TD+10 yuan/kg. In other regions, low-priced cargoes had basically been cleared, while offers in Shenzhen were mostly around TD+5-10 yuan/kg. Today, the market quoted premiums for the SHFE most-traded contract 2608 at a discount of 30 to 20 yuan/kg. Overall, a slight cooling in rate-hike expectations provided some support for precious metals prices. At the start of the month, the spot direction remained unclear. Maintenance at copper plants last month caused a slight disruption on the supply side, and offers generally maintained a slight premium structure. Views From Various Parties Regarding the outlook for precious metals, some institutions’ views are as follows: On July 1, the World Gold Council released the “2026 Mid-Year Outlook for the Global Gold Market.” Looking ahead to H2, gold’s valuation framework indicated that gold will continue to serve as a barometer of the global macro economy, with three main possible scenarios. From current levels, gold prices were broadly in line with market consensus: the market expected the US Fed to raise rates at least once in 2026, most likely in October; the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and the European Central Bank were all set to tighten policy; and US Q2 inflation was expected to peak, near $3.9. If there were no major changes in the above environment, gold prices may trade around $4,100/oz within the year, with a fluctuation range of about ±5. If geopolitical or economic conditions deteriorate, or if interest-rate expectations shift, gold is expected to regain its upward momentum; however, only sufficiently strong signals of a global economic slowdown would be likely to drive a breakout to the upside. On the downside, a stronger US dollar, rate hikes exceeding expectations, and a rebound in market risk appetite were the main headwinds for gold prices; if gold prices remain below $4,000/oz, it may trigger further selling. However, based on historical performance, if gold prices fall by more than 10% from current levels, it may trigger “buy-the-dip” demand from long-term investors in multiple regions. State Street Investment Management said that, as the opportunity cost of holding gold and heightened volatility weighed on investor sentiment, bullish gold trades had been weak, and spot gold prices repeatedly tested the $4,000/oz support level. State Street believed that, although gold prices may be more volatile than in 2024-2025, the gold bull-cycle still has upside room, and the US Fed’s hawkish policy shift was expected not to change gold’s post-pandemic structural trend. State Street noted, “Since the US-Iran conflict, China’s retail gold imports have surged, and local premiums have risen in tandem, reflecting tightening fundamentals in China’s gold supply-demand balance.”State Street expects that over the next six to nine months gold prices could rise to the $4,750 to $5,500 per ounce range, with strong support in the $3,750 to $4,000 per ounce area. However, compared with the macro environment from January to February, the probability of gold prices reaching $5,500 to $6,250 per ounce is relatively small. (Zhitong Finance) State Street Investment Management strategists noted in a report that gold prices could reach $5,000 per ounce by early 2027, as the gold bull cycle remains persistent. They believe that as U.S. government debt rises, gold's role as a currency hedge is expected to be supported, while actual demand for gold remains strong. Global gold fund holdings (as a share of global mutual fund and exchange-traded fund assets) currently remain below State Street's target allocation of 3% to 10% for most portfolios. Moreover, they added that a hawkish pivot by the Fed should not alter gold’s structural post-pandemic trend. State Street expects base bullion prices to rise to $4,750 to $5,500 per ounce in the next six to nine months. (Jinshi Data APP) Analysts at Saxo Bank said, "The market has not yet attracted enough buying interest to establish that level as a support level." They also pointed out, "Even though energy prices have pulled back recently, investors still expect the Fed may further tighten monetary policy to combat an inflation rebound, and as a result, gold prices fell 14% in Q2, marking the worst quarterly performance since 2013." (Jinshi Data APP) CICC's latest research report pointed out that gold may have already overpriced rate hike expectations. Fed rate hikes are still not the base case, and the gold market may have overly priced in rate hike expectations, leaving room for a pullback this year. CICC's macro team believes that employment and consumption pressures, along with the expanding financing needs of the U.S. AI economy, may make it difficult for the Fed to materially turn hawkish, and monetary policy may be "hawkish in words but dovish in action." Based on the implied interest rate expectations model from gold prices, it is estimated that the current gold price around $4,000 per ounce has fully priced in three to four rate hikes, exceeding the rate hike expectations priced in by the interest rate futures market. Looking ahead, after the decline in oil prices is further reflected in U.S. short-term inflation data, the gold market's pricing of rate hike expectations may be corrected, and futures market short-term funds may have opportunities to cover short positions. (Jinshi Data APP) Li Xunlei, Deputy Director of the China Chief Economist Forum, pointed out that gold's long-term trend exhibits long bear markets and short bull markets. Since 1971, 30 years have been bear markets and 25 years have been bull markets, but each bull market has seen gains of over fivefold. A bull market typically lasts around 10 years. This gold bull run has now lasted nearly 10 years, with prices tripling during that time, so caution is warranted at this stage. (Jin10 Data App) Deutsche Bank analyst Michael Hsueh said the bank has cut its Q3 gold price forecast by over 20% to $4,300/oz and lowered its Q4 forecast by 17% to $4,800/oz. "Potential investors who would normally provide support are notably absent," he said, pointing to weak demand for exchange-traded funds and reduced buying appetite in some countries. (Jin10 Data App) Macquarie said profit-taking weighed on silver prices last month, and price action is once again driven by macro factors amid rising expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes. Similar to gold, silver prices are expected to move sideways for the rest of the year, then gradually decline into 2027, with inflationary pressures and the likelihood of further US Fed rate hikes limiting upside room. The higher inflation and bond yields, the greater the downward pressure. Silver, in particular, has been more susceptible to a pullback after outperforming gold, driven by bullish sentiment fueled by supply tightens, low inventory, and strong demand. Historically, silver pullbacks tend to be rapid. Macquarie expects silver to trade at $70/oz in Q4 this year and pull back to $65/oz by the end of 2027. (Jin10 Data APP) Recommended reads:

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Ferrotitanium and other projects have met the procurement conditions and suppliers are now publicly invited to participate in negotiation procurement activities. Project Overview 1.1 Project Name: Ferrotitanium and Other Projects 1.2 Principal: Ansteel Co., Ltd. 1.3 Agency: Ansteel Tendering Co., Ltd. 1.4 Project Funding: Self-financed 1.5 Project Summary: See the public attachments to the entrustment application 1.6 Platform and URL: Ansteel Smart Tender & Bid Platform (http://bid.ansteel.cn/TPBidder) Procurement Scope and Related Requirements 2.1 Procurement Scope: See the public attachments to the entrustment application 2.2 Delivery Date: August 20, 2026 2.3 Delivery Location: Yingkou, Liaoning: 2.4 Quality Standards or Main Technical Performance Indicators of Goods: See attachments. Supplier Qualification Requirements 3.1 Supplier Qualification Requirements: See attachment Click to view bidding details: