SMM Weekly Stainless Steel Futures Review — week of June 29 – July 3, 2026. Weak nickel and a softening off-season demand backdrop offset firm mill pricing and low inventories, steadying the benchmark contract near RMB 14,655/mt

[SMM Analysis] Stainless Steel Costs and Prices Pull Back in Tandem, Steel Mill Profits Remain Basically Stable This week, stainless steel prices and production costs fell together, and steel mill profit margins remained basically stable. Based on 304 cold-rolled as the benchmark, the profit margin calculated with current raw materials was 2.07%, while that using inventory raw materials was 1.33%. Nickel-based raw material cost side, high-grade NPI prices showed a pullback trend this week. During the week, SHFE nickel and SS futures were in the doldrums overall. Although there were widespread expectations of tight supply for high-grade NPI and upstream smelters and traders maintained firm offers, stainless steel mills' production schedule expectations pulled back, leading to weaker demand, and coupled with the simultaneous decline in stainless steel prices, the industry's acceptance of high-priced supply was very limited, and market transactions remained sluggish. As of this Friday, high-grade NPI with mainstream grade of 10%-12% fell by 8 yuan per nickel unit, closing at 1,133 yuan per nickel unit. Stainless steel scrap market, stainless steel scrap prices pulled back slightly this week. The weak futures market transmitted downward to spot cargo, and combined with sluggish off-season demand and reduced steel mill production schedules, rigid demand weakened further. Although steel scrap had an economic advantage over NPI, providing floor support for prices, uncertainty over Indonesian policies kept the market in a wait-and-see stance. Under the weight of bearish fundamentals, short-term stainless steel scrap prices are expected to continue to be in the doldrums. As of this Friday, the mainstream 304 off-cuts price in the Shanghai region fell by 100 yuan/mt, with the latest quotation at approximately 10,400 yuan/mt. Chromium-based raw material cost side, high-carbon ferrochrome prices continued to edge down this week. High-carbon ferrochrome production remained high...

As of the latest data, the FOB price of Indonesian MHP nickel is $15,017/mt Ni, and the FOB price of Indonesian MHP cobalt is $50,496/mt Co. The MHP payables (against the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index) are 80-81, and the MHP cobalt payable indicator (against SMM refined cobalt, Rotterdam warehouse) is 95. The FOB price of Indonesian high-grade nickel matte is $15,143/mt Ni.

On July 3, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate average price edged lower.

As of now, the FOB price of Indonesian MHP nickel is $15,127/mt Ni, and the FOB price of Indonesian MHP cobalt is $50,716/mt Co. MHP payables (against SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index) are 80.5-81.5, and MHP cobalt payables (against SMM refined cobalt (Rotterdam warehouse)) is 95. The FOB price of Indonesian high-grade nickel matte is $15,254/mt Ni.

On July 2, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate average price declined.