Published: Aug 10, 2026 - 10:13 PM (Kitco News) – Gold’s nearly $300 breakout rally last week is generating renewed momentum in the market, and even if prices need more time to digest this latest move, one fund manager said the precious metal has a clear path back to $5,000 an ounce. In an interview with Kitco News, David Miller, CIO and Co-Founder of Catalyst Funds and portfolio manager of the Strategy Shares Gold Enhanced Yield ETF (GOLY) said that gold may still need time to reclaim its previous highs, but the long-term forces supporting the precious metal remain firmly in place as persistent government deficits, inflation and central bank diversification continue to undermine the appeal of traditional fixed-income assets. Miller said he believes gold could eventually return to $5,000 an ounce, although investors should not necessarily expect an immediate move back to those levels. “I think you could see 5,000 an ounce, but I think it could take two, two and a half years to get back there,” he said. Miller said gold’s previous move above $5,000 was fueled by several factors, including falling interest rates, speculative investment demand and, most importantly, aggressive central-bank buying. Although some of the urgency behind that buying has diminished, Miller said the structural case for sovereign institutions to diversify away from the U.S. dollar remains intact. He noted that geopolitical and economic tensions have forced countries to reconsider how much of their sovereign wealth they want tied to dollar-denominated assets. Even though some of the immediate tariff-related pressures have eased, he expects China in particular to remain a significant long-term buyer of the precious metal. Combined with continued U.S. deficit spending, that central bank demand should provide an important floor beneath the market, Miller added. “I think we can grow mid-high single digits in terms of the price of gold for this year,” he said. Miller’s bullish long-term outlook comes even as gold has moved through a period of consolidation following an exceptionally strong run. He said the market’s fundamental investment thesis has not materially changed despite the pullback. The bigger issue, he said, is the deteriorating long-term purchasing power of fiat currencies as governments continue running large deficits against already elevated debt levels. Miller explained that traditionally there are three broad ways governments can ultimately address their debt burdens: inflation, dramatic productivity improvements or austerity. The first is to reduce the real value of debt through inflation. The second is for economic productivity to improve substantially, potentially through artificial intelligence. Miller said a surge in productivity could allow economies to grow fast enough to offset some of the inflationary pressure associated with elevated debt. “You could have a combination of inflating your way out of it with AI-led improvements in productivity,” he said. The third option is austerity, which Miller described as politically difficult because of the economic pain associated with significant spending cuts. Miller added that inflation running around 3%, rather than returning all the way to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, would not necessarily be problematic if nominal economic growth remained strong enough. “If you don't hit a 2% inflation target and you're somewhere in the threes … and you have some productivity growth, I think that's actually okay long term,” he said. For gold investors, persistent inflation also strengthens the argument for holding real assets, particularly if yields on bonds fail to provide attractive returns after accounting for inflation and taxes. That dilemma is central to the investment thesis behind the Strategy Shares Gold Enhanced Yield ETF, Miller said. Traditional bonds provide income, but their purchasing-power benefits can quickly disappear when inflation is running close to their nominal yields. After taxes, Miller said investors can effectively end up with a negative real return. Gold and other real assets offer inflation protection, but physical gold itself does not generate income. GOLY is designed to bridge that gap by combining exposure tied to gold with income generated from investment-grade corporate bonds. “We think this marriage of owning bonds overlaid with the price of gold is a way to give investors their cake and let them eat it too,” Miller said. Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-08-10/gold-could-reclaim-5000oz-two-years-prices-could-gain-9-2026-catalyst-funds

Published: Aug 08, 2026 - 7:23 AM (Kitco News) - Gold investors have spent much of 2026 confronting a frustrating paradox: the geopolitical and fiscal backdrop has arguably never looked more supportive for a safe-haven asset, yet gold has struggled in recent months as rising real interest rate expectations have dramatically increased the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding metal. However, the important question for gold investors is no longer whether real yields are high; they unquestionably are. The question is whether they can move materially higher from here. For a growing number of analysts, the answer is: no. This week BCA Research argued that “the worst of real rates’ headwind to gold is likely behind us,” with Chief Commodities Strategist Roukaya Ibrahim noting that investors do not need Federal Reserve rate cuts to ignite another rally. They simply need real yields and the U.S. dollar to stop rising. That distinction is critical. Gold has already absorbed an extraordinary monetary-policy repricing. At the beginning of the year, markets anticipated one or two rate cuts. Today, investors are contemplating one or two hikes. Jefferies estimates that 10-year TIPS yields have risen to around 2.41% from 1.94% at the start of 2026. That abrupt reversal helped drive gold roughly 25% below its peak. Yet gold continues to defend the psychologically important $4,000-an-ounce level. The World Gold Council noted that gold finished July virtually unchanged at $4,027, even as rising yields remained a headwind. More importantly, European gold ETFs attracted inflows despite real Bund yields sitting at 15-year highs. In other words, gold has survived nearly everything the opportunity-cost argument could throw at it. Jefferies reaches a similar conclusion from history. Gold's performance following previous real-rate shocks depended less on the absolute level of yields than on whether the upward pressure subsequently subsided. The firm argues that much of today's repricing has already occurred and that easing real-rate pressure could allow gold and mining equities to recover. Meanwhile, the structural bullish forces haven't disappeared. Central banks continue accumulating gold, de-dollarization remains an important theme, fiscal concerns haven't gone away, and geopolitical uncertainty remains elevated. BCA expects official-sector demand to provide a floor even if central-bank purchases no longer generate the explosive upside they once did. Even inflation could ultimately become supportive, although not for the simplistic reason that gold is an inflation hedge. The World Gold Council argues that inflation becomes much more meaningful when it pushes above 4%, particularly if accompanied by falling real rates, dollar weakness or increasing recession risks. The bullish argument, therefore, doesn't require a collapsing economy, emergency Fed easing or another inflation crisis. It merely requires the forces that pushed gold down to stop getting worse. After one of the most aggressive opportunity-cost shocks gold has faced in years, that threshold may finally have been reached. And if real yields have indeed peaked, gold's biggest headwind could soon become its most important tailwind. Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-08-07/golds-biggest-headwind-may-finally-be-peaking

[SMM Tin Midday Review: As supply and demand remain sluggish, SHFE tin continues to consolidate, and spot market transactions recover slightly.]

SMM Weekly Stainless Steel Futures Review — week of July 27 – July 31, 2026. Conflicting RKAB supplementary quota signals and a hawkish Fed swing the benchmark contract to a RMB 30/mt gain in the week of August 3–7.

(Kitco News) - Gold's recent correction has likely run its course as the key macro headwinds that pressured the precious metal are beginning to fade, according to one Canadian research firm, which argues that real interest rates have likely peaked and the U.S. dollar will eventually turn from a headwind into a tailwind for bullion. After establishing a neutral position in Spring, Commodity analysts at BCA Research now see attractive value and are recommending investors start accumulating gold with a stop-loss at $3,900 an ounce. "The worst of real rates' headwind to gold is likely behind us," the firm said in its latest report, adding that while geopolitical risks tied to the Middle East could still create short-term volatility, its base case is for U.S. real rates to remain broadly stable over the coming months, helping gold establish a bottom. Speaking with Kitco News, Roukaya Ibrahim, chief commodities strategist at BCA Research, said investors should focus less on inflation and more on the outlook for real yields. "The recommendation to buy now basically embeds that real rates and the U.S. dollar are not going to rise further from here, and that headwind is already gone," she said, noting that gold has held the $4,000-an-ounce level despite recent macro headwinds. BCA's report argues that gold has returned to trading primarily as a macro asset after several years during which central bank buying overwhelmed traditional market drivers. The research firm believes real rates and the U.S. dollar have once again become the dominant forces determining bullion prices, while central bank purchases now provide a floor under the market rather than acting as the primary catalyst for further gains. Although markets have priced in additional Federal Reserve tightening, Ibrahim said she sees little risk that policymakers become more hawkish than current expectations. "Even if the Fed does hike, I don't see them hiking by more than what's already priced in," she said. "The odds of that are quite low" unless oil prices experience a significant and sustained surge that pushes inflation expectations materially higher. That view underpins BCA's bullish stance on gold . Ibrahim said gold does not require imminent rate cuts to rally—only confirmation that the peak in real yields is already behind the market. "The headwind from opportunity costs is going to ease, and it's going to turn into a tailwind," she said. "Not because the U.S. economy is going to crack, but because the tightening is already priced in." BCA also pushes back against the common perception that gold is primarily an inflation hedge. Instead, the firm argues that inflation only benefits bullion when it undermines confidence in the Federal Reserve and suppresses real yields. " Gold 's ability to act as an inflation hedge is overstated. Real rates, rather than inflation, determine gold's performance," the report said. As long as inflation expectations remain well anchored and the Fed maintains credibility, higher inflation initially weighs on gold by pushing real yields higher. Even if another oil-driven inflation shock emerges, Ibrahim expects any rise in real rates to prove temporary. "If we do get a price spike and inflation spike, then probably very quickly the attention is going to shift from it being an inflation story to being a growth story," she said. That transition would eventually cap the Fed's hawkishness and establish "a bottom for gold prices." The firm also sees longer-term support coming from structural forces, including reserve diversification away from the U.S. dollar and persistent central bank buying. While BCA believes the pace of official-sector purchases has likely peaked, it argues that ongoing buying continues to justify elevated gold prices and should prevent a return to 2022 price levels absent a shift by central banks to become net sellers. Over the longer term, BCA also expects the greenback to weaken as structural pressures build. "The greenback will shift from being a headwind to a tailwind to the yellow metal," the report concluded. Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-08-06/now-time-buy-gold-bca-sees-bullish-opportunity-real-yields-peak

06 Aug 2026 Thought of the day Gold climbed above USD 4,250/oz for the first time since June, breaking above its recent trading range of between USD 4,000/oz and USD 4,100/oz. Reported Chinese institutional buying and inflows into exchange-trade funds (ETFs) have supported the latest price movement, while recent joint government efforts by the US and Japan to stabilize the yen may also have helped reduce the risk of a sell-off in US Treasuries. Near-term risks remain, especially if US data stay firm, oil prices keep inflation concerns alive, or markets continue to price in a more hawkish Federal Reserve rate path. But while the immediate backdrop may remain volatile, the medium- to long-term case for gold still looks supported by several durable drivers. We expect gold prices to rise toward USD 5,000/oz in the first half of 2027. Lower real rates should eventually revive investment demand. Gold does not pay income, so higher real yields increase the opportunity cost of holding it. But we expect inflation to gradually moderate, allowing the Fed to hold interest rates steady this year before resuming easing in 2027. This should create a more favorable backdrop for gold, as a shift toward lower policy-rate expectations would likely reduce real yields, weigh on the US dollar, and help boost investment demand for gold. A softer dollar and diversification flows remain powerful medium-term supports. The US dollar may stay resilient in the near term, but structural challenges including large US fiscal and external deficits and already elevated investor allocations to US dollar assets mean there is scope for renewed weakness. A weaker dollar has historically been a powerful tailwind for gold, while a renewed focus on diversification away from the US dollar should benefit the precious metal. Central bank buying provides a durable floor for the market. Central bank demand has remained an important pillar of support, even when private investment demand has been lackluster. We expect annual central bank purchases to remain elevated, supported by a long-term desire to reduce exposure to USD assets. Following a strong second quarter, when central banks bought 289 metric tons of gold, we continue to estimate full-year purchases in the 750-1,000 metric ton range this year. While these flows may not be enough to drive prices sharply higher on their own, they can help stabilize the market and offset weaker areas such as jewelry demand. So, we think investors should separate near-term trading risk from the longer-term investment case. In fact, periods of weakness toward USD 4,000/oz or below may ultimately prove to be opportunities to build strategic exposure. For investors with an affinity for real assets, we continue to view a mid-single-digit gold allocation as appropriate within a well diversified portfolio. Investors can also consider a broad commodities exposure for better portfolio diversification. Source: https://www.ubs.com/global/en/wealthmanagement/insights/chief-investment-office/house-view/daily/2026/latest-06082026.html