SMM Weekly Stainless Steel Futures Review — week of June 15–18, 2026. A mid-week hawkish Fed turn capped an early rally, but supply tightening and firm mill pricing lifted the SHFE board RMB 355/mt on the week of June 15–19.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] Macro Headwinds Drove SS Futures to Swing Wildly, Spot Stainless Steel Transactions Weakened but Prices Remained Firm According to SMM on June 18, SS futures were in the doldrums. Despite a pullback, the decline was limited, and the contract moved sideways during the day. As of market close, the most-traded SS futures contract settled at 15,150 yuan/mt. In the spot market, influenced by the sideways movement of futures and the approaching Dragon Boat Festival holiday, trading activity was mediocre under the combined effect of cautious wait-and-see sentiment and the holiday mood. Quotations remained firm, supported by steel mill guidance prices. SS futures, the most-traded contract: At 10:15 AM, SS2607 was reported at 15,060 yuan/mt, down 150 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in the Wuxi area were in the 160-560 yuan/mt range. In the spot market, the average price for cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi was flat. For cold-rolled 304/2B coil with raw edges, the average price in Wuxi was flat, and the average price in Foshan was flat. The price of cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in the Wuxi area was flat. For hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil, the quotation in Wuxi increased by 70 yuan/mt. Cold-rolled 430/2B coil prices in both Wuxi and Foshan held steady. This week, stainless steel futures and spot cargo experienced wild swings. Outside China, fluctuating macro expectations repeatedly disturbed the futures market, intensifying the tug-of-war between longs and shorts. The overall pattern was one of macro factors dominating futures trends, transactions fluctuating with sentiment, tightening supply supporting spot cargo, stable inventory, and slightly recovering margins. At the start of the week, macro tailwinds lifted market sentiment, and a futures rebound drove a recovery in spot transactions. Mid-week, hawkish expectations for the US Fed intensified, futures weakened again, and end-user …

SMM, June 18: Metals markets: As of midday close, base metals on the domestic market were nearly all down. SHFE copper fell 0.66%, SHFE aluminum fell 0.13%. SHFE lead fell 0.27%. SHFE zinc rose 0.14%. SHFE tin fell 2.46%. SHFE nickel fell 0.38%. In addition, the most-traded cast aluminum futures edged lower, the most-traded alumina futures fell 0.28%. The most-traded lithium carbonate futures fell 4.88%. The most-traded silicon metal futures fell 0.98%. The most-traded polysilicon futures fell 0.24%. Ferrous metals all fell. Iron ore fell 1.26%, rebar fell 1.04%, HRC fell 0.89%, and stainless steel fell 0.66%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal futures contract fell 6.26%, and the most-traded coke futures contract fell 4.21%. On the overseas base metals front, as of 11:45, LME metals fell across the board. LME copper fell 1.06%, LME aluminum and LME lead fell nearly 1%. LME zinc fell 1.12%, LME tin fell 2.7%. LME nickel fell 1.08%. Precious metals: as of 11:45, COMEX gold fell 0.94%, and COMEX silver fell 2.17%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold futures fell 0.36%, and the most-traded SHFE silver futures fell 1.85%. In addition, as of midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 2.63%, and the most-traded palladium futures fell 1.88%. As of the midday close, the most-traded container shipping freight futures (European route) rose 1.13% to 3,742.5 points. As of June 18, 11:45, selected futures midday quotes: Spot and fundamentals Zinc: The mainstream brand 0# zinc traded around 24,680-24,790 yuan/mt in the Ningbo market. Ningbo regular brands were quoted at a discount of 20 yuan/mt against the 2607 contract, and at a premium of 30 yuan/mt against Shanghai spot cargoes. The mainstream in Ningbo was quoted against the 2607 contract... Macro front Domestic side: [Five Departments: Launch of 2026 NEV Promotion Campaign in Rural Areas] The General Offices (Comprehensive Departments) of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Commerce and three other departments are launching the 2026 NEV promotion campaign in rural areas, deepening the auto trade-in program in villages. Within the NEV rural promotion campaign, a trade-in special section will be set up to publicize and promote subsidy policies, and provide "one-stop" services such as old vehicle inspection, evaluation and recycling, and assistance with subsidy applications, to further increase policy awareness and coverage and facilitate rural consumers' participation and access to subsidies. Rural consumers who trade in old cars for NEVs can apply for auto trade-in subsidies according to policy requirements, without any limit on the number of subsidy qualifications. [NDRC: to Strengthen Coordinated Planning of Computing Power Network, New-Type Power Grid, and New-Generation Communication Network During 15th Five-Year Plan Period] Li Chao, Deputy Director of the Policy Research Office and Spokesperson of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), said at a press conference that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, greater emphasis will be placed on supply-demand matching and coordinated planning and construction of the computing power network, new-type power grid, and new-generation communication network. On the "hard investment" front, more effective computing-electricity synergy models will be explored to strengthen computing with electricity and promote electricity with computing; computing-network integration innovation will be enhanced, and direct connection lines between national hubs will be appropriately expanded to further reduce network transmission latency. On the "soft development" front, the monitoring and market-based scheduling of computing resources will be strengthened, and the construction of a nationwide integrated computing power network that is interconnected, universally accessible and easy to use, green, and secure will be accelerated. (from Wallstreetcn APP) [Shanghai Clearing House and CFETS to Launch Optimized Foreign Currency Repo Service from June 22] The Interbank Market Clearing House Co., Ltd. (Shanghai Clearing House) and the China Foreign Exchange Trade System (CFETS) issued a notice stating that to further optimize foreign currency repo trading and clearing services and meet market participants' needs for collateral management and diversified settlement methods, Shanghai Clearing House and CFETS will launch an optimized foreign currency repo service on June 22, 2026. During the term of a foreign currency pledged repo transaction, both parties may initiate substitution of pledged bonds for trades not yet due for settlement through the Shanghai Clearing House integrated business system or the CFETS foreign exchange trading system, subject to counterparty confirmation. Prior to the settlement date, both parties may initiate cash settlement through the Shanghai Clearing House integrated business system, and Shanghai Clearing House will complete the buyout repo maturity settlement based on the cash settlement instruction. The specific launch arrangements by CFETS will be announced separately. (from Wallstreetcn APP) [PBOC Reverse Repos Net Inject 59.5 Billion Yuan Today] The PBOC conducted 248 billion yuan seven-day reverse repo operations in the open market at an interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous day. Today, 188.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured. US dollar: As of 11:45, the US dollar index fell 0.15% to 100.24. US Fed officials hinted on Wednesday that they may need to raise interest rates soon rather than cut them, a sharp shift in thinking amid rapidly climbing inflation. Evercore ISI analyst Krishna Guha stated that the pullback in energy prices may offer some relief in the coming months. However, he cautioned that the interest rate outlook has already decoupled from oil prices, which indicates deeper uncertainty over whether underlying inflation will cool enough to spare the US Fed from having to hike rates eventually. Beyond energy, Guha noted, two pressures remain: the ongoing pass-through from tariffs and cost spillovers from the investment boom in AI infrastructure. Claudia Sahm, chief economist at New Century Advisors and former Fed economist, said conditions that would normally prompt the Fed to respond to supply-driven inflation—namely an overheated labour market or unanchored inflation expectations—have yet to be seen. But she acknowledged that the case for action is building. “I can understand the view that the Fed should be ready to step in and hike if things worsen,” she said, adding that the Fed could move more swiftly than during the pandemic-era inflation surge because “they are already having that debate now.” According to CME FedWatch, the probability of the US Fed holding rates steady through July stands at 64.0% (versus 91.0% before the decision), with a 35.1% chance of a cumulative 25bp hike (versus 8.9%) and a 1% chance of a cumulative 50bp hike (versus 0%). For the year-end, the probability of unchanged rates is 14.2% (versus 38.2%), while the odds of cumulative hikes stand at 25bp (36.4%, versus 43.0%), 50bp (33.8%, versus 16.2%), 75bp (13.5%, versus 2.4%), and 100bp (2.1%, versus 0.1%). Citi expects the Fed to deliver 25bp rate cuts in October 2026, December 2026, and January 2027, shifting from its previous forecast of cuts in September, October, and December this year. Goldman Sachs Vice Chairman and former Dallas Fed President Kaplan said the Fed may need to raise rates as early as September if inflation remains persistently elevated. “If the inflation data do not cool between now and September, it would be wise for the Fed to act in September or in the autumn. That would be the more prudent course,” Kaplan said. Markets turned hawkish after Fed Chairman Walsh signalled that the central bank remains focused on fighting inflation. Traders dumped short-term Treasuries, pushing some yields higher. Walsh’s remarks were reinforced by the personal projections of Fed members, half of whom pencilled in rate hikes by the end of 2026. Kaplan stated that if inflation remains stubborn, it indicates that monetary policy is still too loose. He also pointed out, “Fed policy actions are rarely one-offs; rate hikes often come in series of two or three. So I think if you’re going to act in September, you need to be prepared. There may be one or two more.” (Jin10 Data APP) Data Releases: Today will see the release of US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 13, the US June Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, the US May Conference Board leading index month-on-month change, Switzerland’s May trade balance, the Swiss National Bank policy rate as of June 18, the UK ILO unemployment rate for the three months to April, the UK May unemployment rate, the UK May claimant count change, the UK Bank of England rate decision as of June 18, and the eurozone April seasonally adjusted current account, among other data. Additionally, attention should be paid to: China’s refined oil products will open a new round of price adjustment window. The Fed’s FOMC will release its interest rate decision and summary of economic projections, Fed Chairman Warsh will hold a monetary policy press conference, the Swiss National Bank will announce its rate decision, and the Bank of England will release its rate decision and meeting minutes. It is worth noting that on June 18, China’s SGE, SHFE, ZCE, and DCE will have no night session trading due to the eve of the Dragon Boat Festival. On June 19, the NYSE will be closed for Juneteenth. CME Group’s precious metals, energy, forex, equity indexes, and US Treasury futures contracts trading will close early at 01:00 Beijing time on June 20 for the Juneteenth holiday, while ICE’s Brent crude oil futures contract trading will close early at 01:30 Beijing time on June 20 for the Juneteenth holiday. Crude Oil: As of 11:45, oil prices in both markets fell, with WTI down 1.82% and Brent down 1.48%. Trump signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran at the Palace of Versailles in France on Wednesday, declaring an end to the war and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. A US official stated that the agreement had officially taken effect, but it remained unclear whether Iran had immediately taken steps to fully reopen the strait. "Trump's signing of the MOU after the G7 meeting is another important step in the process of reopening the Strait of Hormuz," said Rajeev De Mello, Global Macro Portfolio Manager at Gama Asset Management, "This will further compress energy risk premiums, ease inflation concerns, and provide support for bond and equity markets after the Fed's initial reaction." (Wall Street CN) An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated: Iran must be able to sell its oil smoothly, with no obstacles in transportation and insurance, and must receive the proceeds from oil sales. Jinshi Data APP) According to the latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. EIA crude oil inventories fell by 8.26 million barrels last week, compared with estimates of a 5.2 million barrel decline by Bloomberg users and a 3.6918 million barrel draw by analysts, following a 7.227 million barrel drop the prior week. Inventories at the Cushing hub in Oklahoma have declined for eight consecutive weeks to around 20 million barrels, a level that most traders consider the operational minimum. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve also fell this week to about 340 million barrels, the lowest since 1983. (Wallstreetcn) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM June 18 News: In metals markets: Overnight, base metals on both domestic and overseas markets collectively rose. LME zinc led the gains with a 1.4% increase, LME tin rose 0.85%, LME aluminum gained 0.99%, SHFE zinc climbed 0.67%, and SHFE nickel added 0.6%. All other metals saw small fluctuations. Alumina main contract rose 0.52% and aluminum casting main contract rose 0.17%. Overnight, the ferrous metals complex generally fell. Iron ore dropped 1.13%, recording a three-day losing streak. HRC, rebar, and stainless steel all fell within 1%. Coking coal and coke both declined, with coking coal down 2.26% and coke down 1.25%. Overnight in precious metals, COMEX gold fell 1.79% and COMEX silver fell 2.93%. Domestically, SHFE gold fell 0.84% and SHFE silver fell 1.36%. Overnight closing prices as of 6:43 AM on June 18: Macro Front China: [PBoC: Improve the Short-End Interest Rate Adjustment Mechanism] Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People's Bank of China, stated that the short-end interest rate adjustment mechanism will be improved. Building on the temporary overnight repo and reverse repo tools established in July 2024, the mechanism for using the tools will be improved, and the operating rates will be adjusted to the 7-day reverse repo rate plus and minus 25 basis points, narrowing the corridor from 70 basis points to 50 basis points. The open market operations toolbox will be further enriched, and overnight reverse repo operation varieties will be added at appropriate times to better match the short-term liquidity needs of the banking system. (CCTV News) [PBoC Optimizes the Mechanism for Temporary Overnight Repo and Reverse Repo Open Market Operations] To flexibly and efficiently utilize temporary overnight repo and reverse repo open market tools, the People's Bank of China decided to optimize the operational elements effective immediately. The operation time is adjusted to 15:00-15:30 on working days, and the operating rates are adjusted to the 7-day reverse repo rate minus 25bp and plus 25bp, respectively. The rules for using the tools are further clarified. When the money market overnight rate (DR001) is persistently lower or higher than the corresponding tool's operating rate, the People's Bank of China will initiate corresponding operations based on the needs of primary dealers. (People's Bank of China) [Wu Qing‘s Speech at Lujiazui Forum: Expand the Scope of the Fifth Set of Standards to the AI Field, Support Hong Kong-Listed Companies for Domestic Listing] Wu Qing, Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, intensively released policy signals at the 2026 Lujiazui Forum on the 17th, covering reforms to the tech listing system, capital market opening-up, guiding long-term capital, and AI regulation, outlining the regulatory layer's policy blueprint for deepening capital market reforms. In his speech, Wu Qing said that the scope of the fifth set of listing standards will be expanded to the artificial intelligence field, actively supporting the listing of high-quality AI large model companies, and supporting qualified Hong Kong-listed companies to list domestically. He also stated that research on promoting RMB foreign exchange futures pilot programs will be accelerated. He further stated that efforts will be made to enhance cross-border regulatory collaboration, support legal and compliant cross-border investment and financing activities, and lawfully crack down on various cross-border illegal activities. Guiding opinions for regulating the development of capital market AI will be released in due course, with strict investigations and punishments for illegal activities such as riding hot topics, hyping concepts, or even market manipulation and insider trading in the name of technology. US Dollar: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index rose 0.82% to 100.38. The US Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting this week stood pat as widely expected. The post-meeting statement emphasized the commitment to price stability by reducing high inflation, and the dot plot reflected a strong hawkish bias among Fed policymakers. On Wednesday, June 17 US Eastern Time, the Federal Reserve announced after its FOMC meeting that it would keep the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%. To date, after cutting rates at three consecutive meetings through last year-end, the FOMC has stood pat at all four monetary policy meetings in 2026. This decision was completely within market expectations. This was the first FOMC meeting with Warsh as Fed Chairman. Judging from the rate decision, his first major act in the new role was to significantly shorten the statement, including the rate guidance. The new statement emphasized only the inflation side of the dual mandate on employment and inflation. Its assessment of inflation and other economic areas was consistent with the previous one, reiterating that inflation remains high and noting that the Middle East conflict brings high uncertainty to the economy. Compared with the statement, the dot plot released after the meeting reflected an even more pronounced hawkish tilt: half of the Fed officials providing rate forecasts projected at least one rate hike this year. Bloomberg rates strategist Ira Jersey commented that given half of Fed officials foresee hikes, the market focusing on the dot plot makes the bear-flattening of the Treasury yield curve look logical. Nick Timiraos, a veteran Fed correspondent known as the "new Fed wire," described the dot plot as "very hawkish." He pointed out in the article title that the Fed held rates steady, but more officials expect the next move to be a hike. (Wall Street CN) According to CME "FedWatch": The probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged in July stands at 64.0% (was 91.0% before the decision). The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 35.1% (was 8.9%), and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike is 1% (was 0%). For December, the probability that the Fed holds rates steady is 14.2% (was 38.2%), with the chances for a cumulative 25-basis-point hike at 36.4% (was 43.0%), a 50-basis-point hike at 33.8% (was 16.2%), a 75-basis-point hike at 13.5% (was 2.4%), and a 100-basis-point hike at 2.1% (was 0.1%). (Jin10 Data App) Data: Today, China's May Swift RMB share in global payments, the US Federal Reserve's June 17 interest rate decision (upper bound), US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 13, the US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for June, and the US Conference Board Leading Index month-over-month change for May will be released. Also due are Switzerland's May trade balance and Swiss National Bank policy rate on June 18, the UK's ILO unemployment rate for the three months to April, UK May unemployment rate, UK May claimant count change, and the Bank of England‘s June 18 interest rate decision, as well as the Eurozone’s seasonally adjusted current account for April, among other data. In addition, China will open a new refined oil product pricing window. The Fed's FOMC will release its interest rate decision and Summary of Economic Projections. Fed Chairman Warsh will hold a monetary policy press conference. The Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England will announce their interest rate decisions, with the BoE also releasing meeting minutes. Notably, on June 18, there will be no night trading session on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, SHFE, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and DCE in China due to the eve of the Dragon Boat Festival. On June 19, the NYSE will be closed for Juneteenth. On the same day, trading of precious metals, energy, foreign exchange, equity index, and US Treasury futures contracts on the US-based CME will close early at 01:00 Beijing Time on June 20 for Juneteenth. Also due to Juneteenth, trading of Brent crude oil futures contracts on the US-based ICE will close early at 01:30 Beijing Time on June 20. Crude Oil: As of the overnight close, both oil benchmarks fell. Brent crude fell 0.38% and WTI crude fell 0.35%. On June 17 local time, senior US officials read out the 14 terms of a US-Iran memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the war and promoting the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to the media. According to the arrangement, both sides will begin 60 days of further negotiations this Friday (June 19) in Switzerland to reach a final agreement. The US commits that, effective immediately upon the signing of this memorandum and until sanctions are lifted, the US Treasury Department will issue exemption licenses for Iran's exports of crude oil, petroleum products, and derivatives, as well as related supporting services (including banking transactions, insurance, and transportation). (Jin10 Data App) Amid the chain reaction from easing Middle East tensions, the International Energy Agency (IEA) judged in its monthly oil market report released Wednesday that if a peace arrangement proves sustainable, the global crude market could shift to a clear oversupply next year. The IEA systematically assessed the impact of the end of the Iranian conflict for the first time in this report. The agency analyzed that as oilfields shut down for months due to the conflict gradually resume production, supply from the Gulf region will show a "gradual" recovery trend this year. On this basis, global crude oil production is expected to increase by 8 million barrels per day by next year, reaching a total scale of 110 million barrels per day. In contrast, global demand growth is estimated at about 2 million barrels per day, described as "relatively mild." The IEA noted in the report that this supply-demand mismatch will lead to a "massive surplus," which it suggested "could provide a welcome breathing space for the market and an opportunity to replenish depleted stocks or build new strategic reserves." Currently, oil inventories in OECD countries have fallen to their lowest levels since 1990. (Jin10 Data) The IEA also noted that oil prices experienced a sharp correction between May and mid-June, driven by market optimism about a peace deal and changes in Asian demand. Reduced crude oil procurement from Asia exerted clear downward pressure on prices. Affected by these combined factors, North Sea crude prices cumulatively fell by more than $40 per barrel during this period to around $82, indicating the market had already priced in expectations of increased supply and slowing demand. (Jin10 Data)

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] Stainless Steel Futures Stop Rising and Pull Back, Spot Trading Weakens but Prices Hold Steady According to SMM on June 17, SS futures showed a stop-rise and pullback trend. Although the overall nonferrous metals futures market strengthened today, SHFE nickel remained in the doldrums. Additionally, after a rapid successive run-up earlier, stainless steel lacked sufficient momentum for further gains, leading to a slight pullback in futures today. As of the midday close, the most-traded SS contract settled at 15,190 yuan/mt. In the spot market, SS futures continued to climb during the week, lifting spot offers in tandem and strengthening them, while purchasing demand was largely released early in the week. After SS futures declined today, inquiries and transactions weakened somewhat, but spot offers remained firm. The most-traded SS futures contract. At 10:15 a.m., SS2607 was quoted at 15,210 yuan/mt, up 115 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi ranged 10-410 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi was flat; for cold-rolled 304/2B coils with mill edge, average prices were flat in Wuxi and Foshan; cold-rolled 316L/2B coil prices in Wuxi rose 150 yuan/mt; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil offers in Wuxi increased 50 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan held steady. This week, stainless steel futures and spot markets both came under pressure and declined, with ex-China macro headwinds dominating the market and bearish sentiment spreading rapidly in the off-season. Industry expectations for the outlook weakened, end-users turned cautious, rigid demand remained sluggish, and traders concentrated on offering discounts to sell and destock. On the futures side, this week ex-China macro became...

[SMM Daily Review: Silver Prices Rise for Four Straight Days, Spot Premiums Steady, Trading Weak] SMM June 17: The second phase of the US-Iran agreement was implemented, crude oil plunged, dragging down commodities, while gold's consecutive gains provided support. Spot premiums held steady, consumption was weak, and the market awaited guidance from the US Fed's interest rate decision.