Global coal markets generally strengthened over the past week, although performance varied across regions and grades. European thermal coal indices rose above $124/t, supported by firmer oil and gas prices, geopolitical risks and weaker renewable and nuclear generation during the heatwave. South African 6,000 kcal/kg high-CV coal exceeded $109/t, with additional support from Indian enquiries and a 12 August train derailment that disrupted deliveries to Richards Bay Coal Terminal. China’s Qinhuangdao 5,500 NAR spot price strengthened above $126/t. Coal stocks at nine major ports declined by 0.87 mnt week on week to 26.51 mnt, while inventories at six major coastal thermal power plants fell by 0.25 Mt to 14.01 Mt. Lower inventories and tighter mine safety inspections supported domestic prices and increased Chinese traders’ interest in imported blending coal. Indonesian 5,900 GAR coal rose to $104.5/t, while 4,200 GAR material approached $64/t. Australian thermal coal prices were mixed, with 6,000 high-CV coal falling below $128/t while 5,500 mid-CV material strengthened to $95–96/t. Meanwhile, limited availability of premium metallurgical coal, renewed purchasing and improved Chinese market sentiment lifted the Australian HCC index to $224/t.

India’s average daily maximum power demand increased by approximately 9.4% year on year during the first half of August 2026, while total electricity generation rose by around 7.6%. Renewable generation surged by approximately 39% to 17.3 TWh, but hydropower output fell by around 17% to 11 TWh, requiring coal-fired generation to increase by approximately 6% to 58.1 TWh. Higher coal-fired output accelerated the drawdown of power plant inventories. Coal stocks monitored by the Central Electricity Authority declined from 38.01 mnt on 31 July to 34.71 mnt on 16 August, a reduction of approximately 3.31 mnt, or nearly 9%. However, the number of plants with critical stocks increased only from 31 to 32, while daily coal receipts of around 2.42 mnt on 16 August marginally exceeded consumption of approximately 2.40 mnt. The situation therefore indicates localised logistical and inventory pressure rather than a nationwide coal shortage.

Minsur is advancing the Sumac Wayra greenfield copper-molybdenum exploration project in Ihuarí, Huaral province, in Peru’s Lima region. According to Peru’s Ministry of Energy and Mines, the project involves an estimated investment of around $7 million and is located at elevations of 1,600–3,000 metres. Copper is the main exploration target, with molybdenum as an associated mineral. The plan includes 109 drill holes across 28 drilling platforms, along with the reuse of nine existing platforms and auxiliary facilities. Minsur had previously planned around 15,000 metres of drilling at Sumac Wayra. The project remains at an early exploration stage, with work aimed at defining the characteristics and scale of potential mineralisation. It has no direct near-term impact on copper supply.

Chinese Taiwan's anti-dumping investigation covers 50 tariff codes, primarily 304 and 316-series cold-rolled stainless steel with thickness of 0.05–6.10mm, excluding coated or clad products. A research firm commissioned by the applicants estimated Vietnamese products carried a dumping margin of approximately 31.36% in 2025, with CIF prices USD 80–100/ton below local market levels, with some offers falling below production costs. The investigation names 20 Vietnamese producers and exporters including Posco VST, Yongjin Metal Technology (Vietnam), Tan Viet Metal Technology, Nam Phat Group, and Hoa Sen Nhon Hoi. Procedurally, the Ministry of Economic Affairs must issue a preliminary injury determination within 40 days, while the Ministry of Finance has 70 days for a preliminary dumping finding. Should preliminary findings be affirmative, provisional duties and possible retroactive application may follow. If implemented, the measures are expected to potentially disrupt Vietnamese export flows to Chinese Taiwan and raise near-term procurement costs for end users.

Since Q3, multiple regions including Beijing, Qinghai Province, Gansu Province, Chongqing, Shanghai, and the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region have introduced new policy measures regarding consumer goods trade-in. Hong Tao, vice chairman of the China Consumer Economics Society, said in an interview with reporters that consumer goods trade-in activities have a strong driving effect, benefit a wide range of people, and deliver tangible livelihood results, serving as a key lever for releasing consumption potential. Localities’ continued efforts in consumer goods trade-in help further cultivate new consumption hot topics, better meet public needs and enterprise expectations, and thereby expand domestic demand while improving people’s livelihoods. Looking at this round of actions, although the driving forces behind relevant local departments optimizing the implementation of consumer goods trade-in policies have different focuses, overall there are three main directions: optimizing implementation mechanisms, lowering subsidy thresholds, and expanding the scope of subsidized product categories. Among them, many localities have balanced two or three directions.

[Macro Expectations Repeatedly Disturb, Aluminum Prices Consolidate with Upside Encountering Resistance] Overall assessment: Short-term aluminum prices are expected to mainly consolidate, with upside room somewhat capped by expectations of production resumptions.