[SMM Tin Brief Commentary: SHFE Tin Stopped Falling and Rebounded, Closing Up 2.94% as Macro Pressure and Bottom Support Vied Against Each Other]

The US Fed raised its GDP growth expectations across the board while also raising its core PCE inflation expectations for this year and next year. The US Fed’s FOMC economic projections showed that the median GDP growth expectations for the end of 2026, 2027, and 2028 were 2.4%, 2.3%, and 2.1%, respectively (vs. 2.3%, 2.0%, and 1.9% expected last December). The median core PCE inflation expectations for the end of 2026, 2027, and 2028 were 2.7%, 2.2%, and 2.0%, respectively (vs. 2.5%, 2.1%, and 2.0% expected last December).

[Price Review] During the week, silver prices remained in the doldrums. In China, the Ag (T+D) contract on the Shanghai Gold Exchange broke below the support level of 18,000 yuan/kg, while LBMA silver prices kept probing lower after falling below $75/oz. From a macro perspective, escalating geopolitical conflict in the Middle East pushed oil prices to repeated new highs, while intensifying inflation concerns significantly cooled expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts and delayed the timing of the first cut to year-end. The simultaneous strength in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields became the core factors suppressing silver prices. On Wednesday local time, the US Fed announced that it would keep interest rates unchanged. In the statement released that day, it noted that the impact of the Middle East situation on the US economy remained uncertain and that uncertainty surrounding the US economic outlook was still elevated. In addition, speculative demand and ETF holdings continued to decline, and market sentiment kept cooling. As for the gold/silver ratio, because silver posted a deeper decline, the ratio continued to rise. As of March 18, the LBMA gold/silver ratio had climbed to 63, a recent high. [Important Data] Bullish: US preliminary March one-year inflation expectations came in at 3.4%, above expectations and unchanged from the previous reading Bearish: US API crude oil inventory for the week ended March 13 increased by 6.556 million barrels, above expectations and the previous reading US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ended March 13 increased by 6.156 million barrels, above expectations and the previous reading Data and macro releases to watch next week include: Continued hawkishness from the US Fed, the ECB rate decision, US inflation/employment data, COMEX silver delivery, together with the Boao Forum and geopolitical risks On March 19, the FOMC kept rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, raised its 2026 PCE forecast to 2.7%, and expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts cooled sharply. US-Iran Situation: As of March 19, the military strikes by the US and Israel against Iran had entered their 19th day, with high-intensity confrontation, no sign of a ceasefire, and the conflict spreading to multiple Gulf countries. In terms of the current impact on precious metals, financial suppression outweighed safe-haven demand. Against the backdrop of surging inflation expectations, the US dollar and US Treasury yields continued to rise, the timing of US Fed interest rate cuts was delayed, and silver prices were suppressed. [Price Forecast] Silver prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the doldrums amid the interplay between macro disruptions and fundamentals. On the macro front, caution is still warranted over the risk of continued US dollar strength and heightened volatility from any further escalation in the US-Iran conflict. On the fundamentals side, as PV export rush orders gradually approached their end, rigid demand for raw material procurement by silver nitrate enterprises declined in late March, weakening support from industrial demand. In China's spot market, as investment demand and rigid industrial demand softened, coupled with replenishment from imported silver ingots, circulating supply of silver ingots in the spot market became ample, and suppliers generally lowered spot premium quotes to facilitate transactions. The abnormally high spot premiums in China's spot market will come to an end. At the same time, profitability on imported silver ingots will also decline sharply, and spot premium quotes in actual spot silver ingot transactions are expected to return to rational levels.

[New FOMC Wording: Risks of Rising Unemployment and Inflation Have Intensified] In the May policy statement, US Fed officials stated that GDP growth turned negative in Q1, but even so, the Fed's policy committee still believed that the underlying economy was strong. They observed that the volatile trade statistics were the main reason for the contraction of GDP in Q1, as imports surged ahead of new tariffs. "Although fluctuations in net exports affected the data, recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace," the statement read. However, in the new language of this month's policy statement, officials also acknowledged that "the risks of rising unemployment and inflation have intensified.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) continued its streak of rate hikes for more than a year, raising the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 5-5.25%.

Federal Reserve Governor Cook stated that high inflation is a "serious threat" to the US economy.