According to analysts and Reuters calculations, in the nearly 50 days since the Iran war broke out, more than $50 billion worth of crude oil has failed to be produced globally , and the repercussions of this crisis will continue to manifest in the coming months and even years. According to Kpler data, since the crisis erupted at the end of February, more than 500 million barrels of crude oil and condensate have disappeared from the global market — the largest energy supply disruption in modern history. According to Reuters estimates, this is equivalent to nearly one month of US oil demand, or more than one month of oil consumption for all of Europe. Based on the US military's annual consumption of approximately 80 million barrels in fiscal year 2021, this would be enough to supply the US military for roughly six years. This fuel would be sufficient to sustain the global international shipping industry for approximately four months. Key facts: Gulf Arab states lost approximately 8 million barrels per day of crude oil production in March , nearly equivalent to the combined production of the world's two largest oil companies — ExxonMobil (XOM.N) and Chevron (CVX.N). According to Kpler data, jet fuel exports from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman fell from approximately 19.6 million barrels in February to just 4.1 million barrels combined in March and April to date. According to Reuters estimates, the lost exports would be enough to support approximately 20,000 round-trip flights from New York's JFK Airport to London's Heathrow Airport. Johannes Rauball, senior crude oil analyst at Kpler, said that since the conflict broke out, crude oil prices have averaged around $100 per barrel, and the missing production represents approximately $50 billion in lost revenue . This is equivalent to 1% of Germany's annual gross domestic product, or roughly the entire GDP of relatively small countries such as Latvia or Estonia. Even if the Strait of Hormuz can be reopened, the recovery of production and shipping is expected to be very slow. According to Kpler data, global onshore crude oil inventory has declined by approximately 45 million barrels so far in April. Since late March, the scale of production shutdowns has reached approximately 12 million barrels per day. Rauball said that heavy oil fields in Kuwait and Iraq may take four to five months to return to normal production levels, which will lead to continued inventory drawdowns throughout the summer. Damage to refining capacity and Qatar's Ras Laffan liquefied natural gas complex means that a full recovery of regional energy infrastructure could take years.

SMM April 18 Update: Metals market: Last Friday's overnight session saw broad gains across base metals in the domestic market. SHFE copper rose 0.78%; on a weekly basis, SHFE copper posted a four-week winning streak, gaining 4.07% for the week. SHFE aluminum fell 1.25%, SHFE lead rose 0.24%, SHFE zinc rose 0.71%, SHFE tin rose 0.03%, and SHFE nickel fell 2.19%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract fell 1.01%, and the most-traded foundry aluminum continuous contract fell 1.18%. Last Friday's overnight session saw ferrous metals all fall. Iron ore fell 0.58%, stainless steel fell 0.27%, rebar fell 0.16%, and hot-rolled coil rose 0.09%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal fell 0.24%, and coke fell 0.18%. Overseas market metals last Friday overnight, LME base metals broadly rose. LME copper rose 0.81%; on a weekly basis, LME copper posted a four-day winning streak, gaining 3.83% for the week. LME aluminum fell 2.72%, LME lead rose 0.8%, LME zinc rose 0.25%, LME tin rose 0.03%, and LME nickel rose 1.69%. Precious metals last Friday overnight : COMEX gold rose 0.85%, posting a three-week winning streak with a weekly gain of 1.3%; COMEX silver rose 2.82%, posting a four-week winning streak with a weekly gain of 5.82%. Last Friday overnight, SHFE gold rose 0.94%, posting a three-week winning streak with a weekly gain of 0.12%; SHFE silver rose 3.74%, posting a four-week winning streak with a weekly gain of 5.18%. Gold prices rebounded amid optimistic sentiment over US-Iran negotiations, but further gains may be limited until the geopolitical situation becomes clearer. Commerzbank analysts noted: "Gold prices also rebounded on hopes of an end to the war, as this eased concerns that central banks would have to respond to higher inflation risks with tighter monetary policy, thereby increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold. However, as long as uncertainty remains elevated, the underlying recovery in the gold market may be temporarily exhausted." As of 7:45 AM on April 18, last Friday's overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [State Council Executive Meeting: Deeply Implement the Strategy to Upgrade Pilot Free Trade Zones and Promote High-Quality Development of Pilot FTZs] Li Qiang chaired a State Council executive meeting to hear reports on the development of pilot free trade zones. The meeting noted that since the 18th CPC National Congress, pilot FTZs had actively explored deepening reform, expanding opening-up, and promoting development, achieving a series of breakthrough and pioneering results and effectively serving as comprehensive pilot platforms. In the face of new circumstances and new tasks, it is necessary to thoroughly implement the strategy for upgrading pilot free trade zones, reform and improve institutional mechanisms, further optimize the layout and enhance capacity, and better serve the overall national development. Efforts should be made to adapt measures to local conditions, proceed in a steady and orderly manner, and pursue practical results. On the basis of scientific assessment and evaluation, and in accordance with local conditions and actual needs, tailored plans should be formulated for each zone to solidly advance related work and promote high-quality development of pilot free trade zones. Support should be given to pilot free trade zones such as Shanghai to leverage their functional positioning, proactively align with high-standard international economic and trade rules, steadily expand institutional opening-up in terms of rules, regulations, management, and standards, explore and develop more replicable and scalable experiences and practices, and better play a demonstrative, leading, and radiating role. (CCTV News) [MOF and Another Department: Adjusting the Scope of VAT and Consumption Tax Refund Goods for Pingtan Comprehensive Experimental Zone] The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the adjustment of the scope of VAT and consumption tax refund goods for Pingtan Comprehensive Experimental Zone. Goods related to production sold from the mainland to Pingtan via the "second line" shall be treated as exports, and VAT and consumption tax refunds shall be implemented in accordance with current tax policy provisions. However, the following goods are excluded: 1 Exported goods to which the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration have stipulated that VAT refund (exemption) and tax exemption policies do not apply. 2 Goods procured for commercial real estate development projects in Pingtan. Commercial real estate development projects refer to the construction (including renovation and expansion) of hotels, office buildings, villas, apartments, residences, commercial shopping venues, entertainment and service facilities, catering establishments, and other commercial real estate projects. 3 Other goods sold from the mainland to Pingtan that are not eligible for tax refunds. The specific scope is detailed in the appendix. 4 Goods purchased by enterprises whose tax refund or exemption eligibility has been revoked in accordance with relevant regulations. (Ministry of Finance) (Jin10 Data APP) [General Administration of Customs: Supporting Local Governments in Building Bulk Commodity Collection, Distribution, Storage, and Transportation Bases Leveraging Comprehensive Bonded Zones to Conduct Storage and Distribution of Bulk Commodities Such as Energy and Mineral Products] On April 17, the General Office of the State Council forwarded the notice of the General Administration of Customs on Several Measures for Promoting the Expansion and Quality Improvement of Comprehensive Bonded Zones. Among the measures proposed, serving national strategic needs was highlighted. Support is given to local governments to build bulk commodity collection, distribution, storage, and transportation bases leveraging comprehensive bonded zones, and to conduct storage and distribution of bulk commodities such as energy and mineral products. Enterprises within the zones are allowed to carry out physical blending of metal ore products through bonded logistics. Differentiated conformity assessment shall be implemented. Support is given to enterprises within the zones to conduct key core technology research in areas such as artificial intelligence, integrated circuits, industrial master machines, medical equipment, instruments and meters, advanced materials, basic software, and industrial software. Differentiated conformity assessment shall be implemented for relevant equipment, reagents, and consumables imported by enterprises in accordance with national statutory inspection requirements. [CSRC Solicits Public Comments on the Measures for the Supervision and Administration of Futures Companies (Exposure Draft) and Supporting Implementation Provisions] Building on the public consultation conducted in March 2023, the CSRC, in light of new circumstances and issues encountered in futures industry regulatory practice, conducted further research and deliberation on the relevant institutional arrangements of the Measures for the Supervision and Administration of Futures Companies, and formulated a new Measures for the Supervision and Administration of Futures Companies (Exposure Draft). Concurrently, the CSRC drafted the Announcement on Matters Concerning the Implementation of the (Exposure Draft) as supporting implementation provisions. Public comments are now being solicited. The new Measures for the Supervision and Administration of Futures Companies (Exposure Draft) shifts futures market-making and derivatives trading businesses — previously operated by risk management subsidiaries with filing-based access and self-regulatory management by the China Futures Association — to be operated by futures companies, subject to licensing-based access and administrative supervision, and strengthens the regulation of futures companies' subsidiaries and branches. US dollar: Last Friday, the overnight US dollar index rose 0.02% to 98.22. On a weekly basis, the US dollar index fell for a third consecutive week, down 0.48% for the week. After Iran announced that the Strait of Hormuz was now "fully open" to commercial shipping, the US dollar erased all gains since the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict, further weakening demand for safe-haven assets. The index declined consecutively as investors focused on ceasefire and negotiations toward a potentially broader agreement. Jayati Bharadwaj, head of FX strategy at TD Securities, said: "The safe-haven bid has started to fade. That's why the dollar is lower." (Jin10 Data) Fed Governor Waller said he was cautious about whether an interest rate cut was needed in the near term due to the energy shock triggered by the Iran war, and warned that the conflict could have a lasting impact on inflation. In his remarks, Waller outlined two main scenarios. In the first scenario, if the Strait of Hormuz reopens and trade flows return to normal, officials would be able to look through the surge in energy prices and shift their focus to the weakening job market later this year. He said that if this were the case, "I think there is a prospect that underlying inflation will continue to pull back toward the 2% target, which would make me cautious about cutting interest rates now and more inclined to support the labour market through interest rate cuts later this year when the outlook is more stable." However, he warned that oil prices and the broader market were underestimating the risk of a prolonged conflict. "On the inflation front, the risk is that the longer the conflict lasts and the longer energy prices stay high, the greater the likelihood that these elevated prices seep into other prices, as enterprises factor high energy input costs into their pricing."He stated that if this occurred against a backdrop of a weak jobs market, it would limit the scope for policy response. In such a scenario, he would weigh the risks of higher inflation against a weaker labour market, adding that "if inflation risks outweigh labour market risks, this could mean keeping the policy rate at the current target range." (Jin10 Data) Other currencies: ECB Governing Council member De Marco: June is a more natural time to make a judgment; there is not much additional information in April; the situation seems to be heading toward an adverse scenario; the rate decisions in April or June are not yet set in stone. (Jin10 Data) Analysts at Berenberg Bank said in a report that once the worst of the Middle East conflict passes, Europe's positive fundamentals should re-emerge. Economic growth is likely to be led by Germany, which, in addition to fiscal stimulus, should accelerate pro-growth reforms. They stated: "We expect most eurozone member states to return to their 2025 growth rates by 2027." By 2028, eurozone growth is expected to be around 1.5%. The UK should experience a greater upside. By contrast, US growth is expected to slow down in the coming years. The analysts stated: "Tariff-induced capital misallocation, pervasive Trump policy uncertainty, and most importantly, the harsh crackdown on immigration will all take a toll." (Jin10 Data) On the macro front: Data to be released this week include: China's 1-year Loan Prime Rate as of April 20; Germany's March PPI MoM; Canada's March CPI MoM; Switzerland's March trade balance; UK February three-month ILO unemployment rate; UK March unemployment rate; UK March jobseeker's allowance claimant count; Germany's April ZEW Economic Sentiment Index; eurozone April ZEW Economic Sentiment Index; US March retail sales MoM; US February business inventory MoM; US March pending home sales index MoM; UK March CPI MoM; UK March Retail Price Index MoM; eurozone April consumer confidence index preliminary reading; China's March SWIFT RMB share in global payments; France's April manufacturing PMI preliminary reading; Germany's April manufacturing PMI preliminary reading; eurozone April manufacturing PMI preliminary reading; UK April manufacturing PMI preliminary reading; UK April services PMI preliminary reading; UK April CBI industrial orders balance; US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 18; US April S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary reading; US April S&P Global services PMI preliminary reading; Japan's March core CPI YoY; UK March seasonally adjusted retail sales MoM; Germany's April IFO Business Climate Index; Canada's February retail sales MoM; US April University of Michigan consumer sentiment index final reading; and US April one-year inflation expectations final reading. In addition, other events to watch this week included: German Chancellor Merz and European Central Bank (ECB) President Lagarde delivering speeches; the US Senate Banking Committee holding a hearing on Kevin Warsh's nomination as Fed Chairman; China opening a new round of refined oil price adjustment window; ECB President Lagarde delivering a speech; US President Trump hosting an early summer White House Correspondents' Dinner. (Jin10 Data) Crude Oil: Last Friday, both oil futures fell sharply overnight, with WTI crude dropping 7.86% and Brent crude falling 7.01%. On a weekly basis, WTI crude futures fell more than 10% for two consecutive weeks, down 13.02% for the week; Brent crude posted two consecutive weekly declines, down 2.92% for the week. Easing market sentiment from US-Iran nuclear negotiations, coupled with Iran's foreign minister stating that the Strait of Hormuz would be open to all commercial vessels during the Lebanon-Israel ceasefire, drove crude oil prices lower. Iran announced the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and Trump confirmed. According to Xinhua News Agency, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said on the 17th that, given the ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel, Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz to all commercial vessels during the ceasefire period. US President Trump subsequently confirmed this. (Wall Street Journal CN) However, according to the latest report from Xinhua News Agency: Iranian Islamic Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf posted on social media in the early hours of the 18th, stating that the seven statements US President Trump had previously posted on social media within one hour were "all untrue." The US failed to win wars through lies and would gain nothing in negotiations either. Ghalibaf emphasized that if the US continued to blockade Iranian ports, the Strait of Hormuz could not remain open. (Xinhua News Agency) According to Reuters, approximately 20 minutes before Iran's foreign minister announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz on local time Friday, investors placed approximately $760 million in short bets on oil prices, marking yet another large wager on the world's most actively traded commodity ahead of a major development during the Middle East conflict. According to LSEG data, between 20:24 and 20:25 Beijing time on Friday, investors sold a combined 7,990 lots of Brent crude oil futures. At prevailing prices, these trades were worth approximately $760 million. Then around 20:45, Iran's foreign minister posted that the Strait of Hormuz was fully open to all commercial vessels for the remainder of the ceasefire, and within minutes, oil prices extended their intraday decline to as much as 11%. In recent months, multiple precisely timed large trades have raised concerns among US lawmakers and legal experts that decisions surrounding war and diplomacy may be giving certain traders an advantage in volatile and opaque derivatives markets. It had previously been reported that the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission was investigating a series of crude oil futures trades, including those on March 23 and April 7, all of which occurred shortly before Trump made major policy shifts regarding Iran and the war. The US Department of Energy (DOE) said on Friday local time that it had lent 26.03 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to nine oil companies, marking the third batch of loans by the Trump administration aimed at curbing fuel prices that had surged since the US-Iran war began. The DOE said in a statement that companies receiving SPR loans included BP North America, ExxonMobil, and Marathon Petroleum. (Jin10 Data) As Middle Eastern supply was disrupted due to weeks of shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, Asian refiners turned to importing US crude oil, and US crude oil shipments through the Panama Canal approached a four-year high. According to data from shipping intelligence firm Kpler for the first half of April, US crude oil exports via this shortest route connecting the US Gulf Coast to Asia exceeded 200,000 barrels per day, approaching the highest level since July 2022. Sources said waiting times to enter the Panama Canal had extended significantly, prompting crude oil shippers to pay over $3 million for priority passage. Although the Panama Canal cannot accommodate the largest tankers, it provides a shortcut to the Far East. Traveling from the US Gulf Coast to Japan via the canal typically takes close to one month, while routing around the Cape of Good Hope in Africa could take nearly twice as long. Data showed that the vast majority of tankers heading to the Pacific in March and April carried US crude oil destined for Japan and South Korea. (Jin10 Data) In addition, four energy sources said Iraq had resumed southern oil exports after a disruption of over one month due to disturbances in the Strait of Hormuz, with a tanker having begun loading. (Jin10 Data) Note: NYMEX WTI crude oil May futures are subject to contract rollover, with the last floor trading completed at 2:30 on April 22 and the last electronic trading completed at 5:00 a.m. Please pay attention to the exchange's expiration and contract rollover announcements to manage risk. In addition, the expiration time for US crude oil contracts on some trading platforms is typically one day earlier than the official NYMEX schedule. Please take note. Recommended reading:

As the conflict between Israel and Iran continues to escalate, oil industry executives from companies such as ExxonMobil, TotalEnergies, and Shell issued warnings on Tuesday. They stated that further attacks on critical energy infrastructure could have severe consequences for global energy supply and prices.

On Friday (June 13), US stocks opened lower and continued to decline, with all three major indices closing in the red. At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.79% to 42,197.79 points; the S&P 500 fell 1.13% to 5,976.97 points; and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 1.3% to 19,406.83 points. For the week, the Dow fell 1.32%, the S&P 500 fell 0.39%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.63%, all ending a two-week winning streak. In the early hours of Friday (June 13) local time, tensions in the Middle East escalated, causing several popular US stocks to decline significantly during the night session. Affected by geopolitical tensions, international crude oil futures settled sharply higher, rising over 7%. WTI July crude oil futures rose 7.26%, and Brent August crude oil futures rose 7.02%. US COMEX gold futures rose 1.47%. Despite the overall decline in US stocks, sectors such as energy and precious metals rallied against the trend. ExxonMobil rose 2.18%, ConocoPhillips rose 2.4%; VanEck Gold Miners ETF rose 1.74%, and Newmont Corporation rose 3.54%. Louis Navellier, Chief Investment Officer at Navellier & Associates, said, "The lasting damage could be to crude oil prices. If oil prices do not pull back soon, it will certainly cause some damage to US inflation data." Performance of Popular Stocks Most large-cap tech stocks declined, with (ranked by market capitalization) Microsoft falling 0.82%, NVIDIA falling 2.09%; Apple falling 1.38%, Amazon falling 0.53%, Alphabet Class C falling 0.62%, Meta falling 1.51%, Broadcom falling 2.88%, and Tesla rising 1.94%. Oracle rose 7.69%, gaining 23.68% for the week, marking its best weekly performance since 2001. Drone manufacturer AIRO Group surged 140% on its first day of trading. Among Chinese stocks listed in the US, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 2.74%, declining 0.77% for the week. Most popular Chinese stocks listed in the US closed lower, with Pony.ai falling 7.24%, XPeng Motors falling 5.46%, Li Auto falling 3.84%, Alibaba falling 3.22%, NIO falling 3.04%, Pinduoduo falling 2.76%, JD.com falling 2.53%, New Oriental falling 2.33%, Tencent Music Entertainment falling 2.13%, and Baidu falling 2.06%. Company News [Amazon Restructures Healthcare Business] To streamline its structure, Amazon is reorganizing its healthcare business into six "pillars." Previously, Amazon had lost several healthcare executives in recent months. After acquiring PillPack and One Medical and launching some of its own services, Amazon has been struggling to find a consistent strategy in the healthcare market. [AMD Unveils Two Generations of Flagship AI Chips to Compete with NVIDIA; Morgan Stanley: MI400 Could Be a Key Inflection Point] At the AMD Advancing AI conference, AMD showcased its strongest lineup of AI products ever, including flagship AI chips for data centers, AI software stacks, AI rack-level infrastructure, AI network cards, and DPUs, fully demonstrating its ambition to compete with NVIDIA. Morgan Stanley stated that AMD has released the MI350 as expected, but the focus remains on the rack-level MI400/450 products to be launched next year. If these products can be delivered on schedule, they could have a greater impact. [US eVTOL Giant Archer Raises $850 Million] Archer Aviation, a well-known US electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft company, announced that it has raised $850 million through the sale of shares. Archer stated that it plans to use the $850 million to support new infrastructure construction and launch an AI-based aviation software platform.

On Wednesday, Eastern Time, the three major US stock indices weakened in late trading and closed collectively lower as investors digested the minutes of the US Fed meeting and awaited the earnings report of Nvidia, a leader in artificial intelligence. The meeting minutes released by the US Fed during the trading session showed that officials believed they might face a "difficult trade-off" in the coming months, with both inflation and unemployment rising, and that heightened economic uncertainty justified a cautious monetary policy. Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital, commented that the market was stagnant today, and the Fed's meeting minutes did not reveal anything new. They basically indicated that the Fed was in a wait-and-see mode, trying to learn more about the impact of trade policies. Notably, Trump defended the popular "TACO" trade in the market on Wednesday. Trump was angered by this narrative, calling it the most annoying issue, and said his repeated retreats were part of a trade compromise strategy. "This is called negotiation," Trump said. As part of the negotiation, he intentionally set an outrageously high number and then slightly lowered it. TACO stands for Trump Always Chickens Out. In this trade, investors buy the dip after Trump issues tariff threats, and the stock market will rebound when he eventually softens his tone. The positive impact of easing US-European trade tensions is fading, and investors' focus has shifted to Nvidia's earnings report, a major event for the global financial market. Investors have high hopes for the leading company riding the wave of the artificial intelligence technology boom. However, there are also concerns that Nvidia's stock price may have risen too high, despite its basically stagnant performance this year. In the bond market, the yield on 10-year US Treasuries rose to 4.47% from 4.43% at the end of trading on Tuesday. US Treasury yields were volatile last week, unsettling global markets, partly due to concerns about the rapid rise in the US government's debt levels. This volatility also affected Japan, with a poor performance in the auction of 40-year Japanese government bonds on Wednesday. The latest US Fed meeting minutes showed that some rate-setters noted the decline in the prices of US Treasuries, stocks, and the US dollar in the weeks after Trump announced sweeping tariffs on trading partners. "These participants pointed out that the continued shift in these correlations, or the weakening of the status of US assets as a safe haven, could have long-term implications for the economy," the minutes said. Market Dynamics At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 244.95 points, or 0.58%, to 42,098.70; the Nasdaq Composite dropped 98.23 points, or 0.51%, to 19,100.94; and the S&P 500 index declined 32.99 points, or 0.56%, to 5,888.55. Among the 11 sectors of the S&P 500, the consumer discretionary sector fell by 0.94%, the information technology/technology sector declined by 0.34%, the energy sector dropped by 1.25%, and the financial sector decreased by 0.7%. Performance of Popular Stocks Most large-cap tech stocks closed lower, with Tesla down 1.65%, Microsoft down 0.72%, Amazon down 0.63%, Nvidia down 0.51%, Alphabet Class A down 0.31%, Apple up 0.1%, and Meta up 0.23%. Shares of Joby Aviation, a US electric air taxi company, surged nearly 29% after it received its first strategic investment worth $250 million from Toyota Motor Corporation. Synopsys fell nearly 10%, and Cadence dropped 10.67% following reports that the US Department of Commerce would introduce new policies targeting semiconductor software designers. Most popular Chinese ADRs closed lower, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 0.71%. Niu Technologies rose over 3%, while Alibaba and JD.com fell over 2%, and iQIYI dropped over 4%. Company News [Apple Reportedly Plans to Overhaul OS Naming Convention, Using Years Instead of Version Numbers] Apple Inc. plans to make its most comprehensive adjustment to the naming of its operating systems yet, as part of a software overhaul that will extend to all its devices. According to people familiar with the matter, Apple's next-generation operating systems will be named after years rather than version numbers. Anonymous sources indicated that this means the current iOS 18 will give way to "iOS 26". Other system updates will also be called iPadOS 26, macOS 26, watchOS 26, tvOS 26, and visionOS 26, respectively. Apple's move aims to achieve branding consistency and move away from current practices that may confuse users and developers. Today's operating systems—including iOS 18, watchOS 12, macOS 15, and visionOS 2—use different version numbers, so their initial releases are not simultaneous. [OpenAI Executive: Restructuring Paves the Way for IPO, Decision Depends on Market and Company Development] Sarah Friar, the Chief Financial Officer of OpenAI, said on Wednesday that the company's restructuring plan lays the groundwork for a potential future initial public offering (IPO), but whether to proceed with an IPO will depend on the conditions of the public market and the company's own readiness. "The structure of a public benefit corporation positions us for an IPO...if we want to and are ready," she said. [ExxonMobil CEO: Company Will Stick to Investment Plans Even if Oil Prices Fall to $50] Darren Woods, the CEO of ExxonMobil, stated that the company will maintain its capital allocation plans unchanged even if oil prices fall to $50 per barrel. Woods said that at the end of last year, the Texas oil giant conducted stress tests on its business under "more punishing conditions" than the current environment and presented the results to the board. The outcome was that even if oil prices fall from the current $65 per barrel, the company will continue to invest in new projects and return cash to shareholders. Despite the company's flexibility, Woods said, "We don't see a need to make changes even if oil prices drop as low as $50 per barrel." "To achieve differentiated long-term value, we must invest in profitable growth and favorable investment opportunities," he added. [Nvidia's net profit in the first fiscal quarter was $18.78 billion, up 26% YoY] Nvidia's revenue in the first fiscal quarter was $44.1 billion, up 69% YoY, exceeding market expectations of $43.29 billion. Data center revenue in the first fiscal quarter was $39.1 billion, up 73% YoY, exceeding the estimate of $39.22 billion. Net profit in the first fiscal quarter was $18.78 billion, up 26% YoY. Nvidia expects revenue in the second fiscal quarter to be around $45 billion, with a 2% fluctuation, while analysts expect $45.5 billion.

SMM, May 21: Metal Market: Overnight, domestic base metals futures closed higher across the board. SHFE tin rose by 1.16%, SHFE copper by 0.36%, SHFE lead by 0.57%, SHFE aluminum by 0.62%, and SHFE zinc by 0.76%, while SHFE nickel fell by 0.31%. Additionally, the most-traded alumina futures contract dropped by 1.18%. Overnight, the ferrous metals series showed mixed performance. Iron ore rose by 0.21%, stainless steel edged up slightly, rebar fell by 0.07%, and HRC closed flat at 3,206 yuan/mt. In the coking coal and coke sector, coking coal fell by 0.06%, while coke rose by 0.28%. Overnight, overseas base metals futures closed mostly higher. LME copper rose by 0.33%, LME aluminum by 1.27%, LME lead by 1.27%, LME zinc by 1.79%, LME tin by 0.19%, while LME nickel fell by 0.21%. Overnight, precious metals futures closed higher. COMEX gold rose by 1.83%, COMEX silver by 2.32%. SHFE gold rose by 2.11%, and SHFE silver by 1.68%. As of 8:10 a.m. on May 21, overnight closing prices 》Click to view SMM Futures Data Dashboard Macro Front Domestic: [Xi Jinping: Strengthen Confidence to Promote High-Quality Development and Efficient Governance, Strive to Write a New Chapter in Advancing Chinese-Style Modernization in Central China] Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee, President of the People's Republic of China, and Chairman of the Central Military Commission, recently emphasized during a field trip to Henan that in the new era and on the new journey, Henan should earnestly implement the strategic plans of the CPC Central Committee on accelerating the rise of the central region, ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River basin, adhere to the general principle of pursuing progress while ensuring stability, comprehensively deepen reform and opening up, focus on building a modern industrial system and a strong agricultural province, improve people's livelihoods, strengthen social governance, enhance ecological and environmental protection, and promote cultural prosperity, striving to write a new chapter in advancing Chinese-style modernization in central China with high-quality development and efficient governance. (Xinhua News Agency) [Financial Support for the Real Economy! PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng Presides Over High-Profile Symposium] To implement the decisions and arrangements of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, promote the effective implementation of a package of monetary and financial policies, and support sustained economic recovery and improvement, Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People's Bank of China (PBOC), presided over and delivered a speech at a symposium on financial support for the real economy on May 19. Zhou Liang, Deputy Governor of the National Financial Regulatory Administration, attended and delivered a speech. Xuan Changneng and Zou Lan, Deputy Governors of the PBOC, also attended the meeting. The meeting emphasized the need to implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy to meet the effective financing needs of the real economy and maintain reasonable growth in the total amount of finance. We will intensify support for key areas such as scientific and technological innovation, boosting consumption, private and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade. We will make full use of existing and incremental policies, enhance the quality and efficiency of financial support for the real economy, and support economic restructuring, transformation and upgrading, and the replacement of old growth drivers with new ones. We will strengthen the implementation and transmission of monetary policies, safeguard fair market competition, and promote the organic unity of financial services for the real economy and the sustainable development of banks themselves. We will advance the international use of the RMB in an orderly manner and improve the convenience of trade, investment, and financing. We will coordinate development and security and resolutely safeguard national financial security. 》Click for details [China's National Energy Administration: Total electricity consumption in society increased by 4.7% YoY in April] The National Energy Administration released data on total electricity consumption in society for April. In April, total electricity consumption in society reached 772.1 billion kWh, up 4.7% YoY. In terms of electricity consumption by sector, the primary sector consumed 11 billion kWh, up 13.8% YoY; the secondary sector consumed 528.5 billion kWh, up 3.0% YoY; the tertiary sector consumed 139 billion kWh, up 9.0% YoY; and urban and rural residents consumed 93.6 billion kWh, up 7.0% YoY. From January to April, cumulative electricity consumption in society reached 3,156.6 billion kWh, up 3.1% YoY, with power generation by industrial enterprises above designated size totaling 2,984 billion kWh. 》Click for details [National Development and Reform Commission: Further improve institutional mechanisms for promoting the development of the private economy, and conduct a review of local regulations, rules, normative documents, and other policy documents] The General Office of the National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on learning about, publicizing, and implementing the Law of the People's Republic of China on Promoting the Private Economy. Taking the implementation of the Law on Promoting the Private Economy as an opportunity, we will further improve our work standards, strengthen work measures, and ensure the promotion and growth of the private economy within the framework of the rule of law. First, we will establish and improve working mechanisms. We will implement relevant legal provisions, establish and improve coordination mechanisms for promoting the development of the private economy, and comprehensively promote the implementation of work. Second, we will accelerate the improvement of supporting systems. In line with legal provisions, we will do a good job in "establishing, amending, abolishing, and interpreting" (laws and regulations). On the one hand, we will further improve institutional mechanisms for promoting the development of the private economy in light of our own actual conditions. On the other hand, we will conduct a review of local regulations, rules, normative documents, and other policy documents, and promptly amend or abolish those that are inconsistent with legal provisions. Third, we will fully implement legal provisions. We will enhance our awareness of the rule of law, fulfill our statutory duties, and carry out our work in strict accordance with statutory authorities and procedures. We will ensure that all forms of ownership can use production factors equally under the law, participate in market competition fairly, and enjoy equal legal protection. We will actively coordinate and resolve major issues in the development of the private economy, safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of private enterprises and entrepreneurs in accordance with the law, and ensure that all institutional provisions of the Law on Promoting the Private Economy are effectively implemented. Regarding the US dollar: The US dollar fell again on Tuesday, dragged down by the US Fed's cautious stance on the economy. Overnight, the US dollar index continued its decline from the previous trading day, dropping 0.35% to 100.01. The US dollar was sold off on Monday after rating agency Moody's downgraded the US sovereign rating from "Aaa" to "Aa1" last Friday. US Fed officials doubled down on their concerns about the impact of the US government's trade policies on the economy on Tuesday. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said that although recent US-China trade tensions have eased, the labour market appears likely to weaken and prices may rise. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack told Axios that current trade developments could lead to stagflation, although other US government policies might offset this effect. Regarding other currencies: The yen is expected to remain strong as the Bank of Japan's policy stance remains biased towards further rate hikes, while other G10 central banks are cutting interest rates, noted Derek Halpenny of MUFG Bank in a report. Even if the Bank of Japan eventually stops raising rates, it is unlikely to return to monetary easing, which will continue to support the yen. (Huitong Finance) On the macro front: Today, the UK's April CPI year-on-year rate, core CPI year-on-year rate, and retail price index year-on-year rate will be released. Additionally, it is worth noting that 2025 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem will speak on the economic outlook and monetary policy; 2027 FOMC voter Bostic will chair a meeting, and 2026 FOMC voter Hammack and 2027 FOMC voter Daly will deliver keynote speeches. Regarding crude oil: Both oil futures rose slightly, with US crude up 0.18% and Brent crude up 0.09%. Oil prices fluctuated rangebound due to uncertainties in US-Iran negotiations and Russia-Ukraine peace talks. An agreement to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict could allow Russia to export more oil globally. An industry insider said on Tuesday that Kazakhstan's May oil production increased by 2%, a rise that defied OPEC's pressure on the country to cut production. Kazakhstan has repeatedly violated its OPEC production quota, citing the difficulty of telling Western oil giants like Chevron and ExxonMobil to cut their plans. On Tuesday, Qatari Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi said at an economic forum in Doha that if crude oil prices fall below $60 per barrel, investment will decrease and electricity demand will not be met. Saudi Arabia's Minister of Economy Faisal Alibrahim stated at the Qatar Economic Forum that the Saudi economy is always prepared for various oil price scenarios. He said, "Our budget is no longer driven by oil, but by our priorities." The American Petroleum Institute (API) released data on Tuesday indicating that US crude oil inventories increased last week, while gasoline and distillate inventories declined. According to the API report, US crude oil inventories rose by 2.499 million barrels in the week ending May 16. Gasoline inventories fell by 3.238 million barrels, and distillate inventories dropped by 1.401 million barrels. Previous surveys had shown that analysts expected US crude oil inventories to decrease by approximately 1.3 million barrels, gasoline inventories by around 500,000 barrels, and distillate inventories by about 1.4 million barrels last week. Additionally, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release its weekly crude oil inventory report at 22:30 on Wednesday. Furthermore, due to the impact of contract rollover, the last in-house trading for June NYMEX New York crude oil futures will be completed at 2:30 on May 21, and the last electronic trading will be completed at 5:00 AM. Please pay attention to the contract rollover announcements from trading venues to manage risks. Moreover, the expiration time for US crude oil contracts on some trading platforms is usually one day earlier than the official NYMEX schedule. Please take extra caution. (Webstock Inc.)