Based on on-site visits to the 2026 China Hydrogen Energy Exhibition and International Hydrogen Energy Conference, the most intuitive impression of this edition was that the industry as a whole is cooling down. Although the exhibition quality was moderate, enterprise participation and novelty were noticeably inferior to previous editions. In the hydrogen production sector, top-tier enterprises such as Sungrow Hydrogen, LONGi Hydrogen, and CRRC ZELC attended to hold up the show, while a number of mainstream industry players including LuDao Hydrogen, CSSC Peric, and MingYang Hydrogen did not exhibit. Fuel cell enterprises were almost entirely absent, with most having shifted to the FCVC exhibition in Shanghai. The exhibitors were still dominated by general parts enterprises such as valves, instruments, gaskets, and compressors, while core parts enterprises showed very low willingness to participate. The reasons were quite practical: on one hand, over 30% of hydrogen production enterprises make their own electrodes and separators, and the remaining enterprises have long established fixed partnerships with parts suppliers. Exhibitions can hardly bring in new clients and offer poor cost-effectiveness, so there were many familiar faces and few new enterprises on site. Instead, non-ferrous material enterprises such as Guiyan, Heraeus, Baoti, and Beikuang New Materials appeared in clusters, becoming the most noteworthy new change at this exhibition. Market differentiation in the hydrogen production segment has become very clear, with involution in China and going global becoming the mainstream choice for enterprises. Alkaline electrolysers face fierce price competition in China, with the price spread versus PEM continuing to widen. Medium-sized and larger enterprises have generally turned their attention to markets outside China, where export prices for MW-scale hydrogen production systems are considerable, along with export tax rebate policies. To meet European local content requirements, small and medium-sized enterprises mostly partner with local dealers, while top-tier enterprises are planning to build factories directly in Europe. Quite a few PEM electrolyser enterprises exhibited, but products were mainly small-scale units, primarily targeting metal refineries and small and medium-sized chemical enterprises. The biggest obstacle to promotion is ambiguous policy positioning — hydrogen is both an energy source and a hazardous chemical, and new equipment must go through approval and filing. Some local governments and enterprises show slightly lower enthusiasm due to safety and efficiency considerations. At this exhibition, the AEM technology route clearly gained momentum, with both equipment and parts enterprises increasing their deployment and technical exchanges becoming more open. However, the core issue remains the relatively short membrane lifespan, far below that of alkaline and PEM electrolysers. Meanwhile, the closed landscape of PEM core parts is being broken. Electrodes, membranes, and other components that enterprises previously kept for internal use are now being sold on the retail market, and the degree of marketisation across the industry chain is increasing. The convergence of non-ferrous materials and hydrogen energy is rapidly increasing, which is the most practically valuable signal from this exhibition. Enterprises such as Heraeus and Guiyan are concentrated in the PEM electrolyser catalyst field, Baoti's titanium materials are mainly used for bipolar plates, and nickel is a key material for alkaline electrolysers, extensively used in electrode plates, separator frames, and bipolar plates. Currently, catalyst enterprises are essentially all pursuing an integrated route of raw materials, compounds, and catalysts, while also supporting recycling operations. Small platinum group metal enterprises are also extending toward end-users, with a clear trend of full-chain deployment. By contrast, gas companies were almost absent from this exhibition, perhaps because metal powder users went to the powder metallurgy exhibition in Shanghai during the same period. There was some enterprise participation in the methanol-hydrogen blending and natural gas-hydrogen blending directions, with economic viability being more prominent in high natural gas price areas in south China, while promotion potential is relatively limited in the north where natural gas prices are more advantageous. Interest in hydrogen storage and transportation, refuelling, and fuel cell sectors continued to decline, with top-tier enterprises largely absent. Attention to hydrogen fuel cells fell far short of hydrogen production, and hydrogen production itself is also cooling down. Based on enterprise feedback on the 15th Five-Year Plan subsidy policies, subsidy resources are mainly concentrated in demonstration projects, infrastructure, and hydrogen transportation, with no direct subsidies for equipment manufacturing enterprises, which can only seek support through technological innovation and project applications. Cut-throat competition is expected to continue further. Overall, the current hydrogen energy industry has not broken out of its existing landscape. AEM is beginning to move toward marketisation, PEM remains focused on small batches and small-scale units, large alkaline electrolysers still rely on demonstration projects, and SOFC is also progressing gradually. As core parts become more open and market price signals become clearer, the industry is shifting from past expansion and momentum-building toward substantive implementation and deep cultivation. Future opportunities are more concentrated in the localisation of materials, marketisation of core parts, and expansion into markets outside China.

As of now, the FOB price of Indonesian MHP nickel was $15,341/mt Ni, and the FOB price of Indonesian MHP cobalt was $51,425/mt Co. MHP payables (against SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index) stood at 86-87, and the MHP cobalt element payable indicator (against SMM refined cobalt (Rotterdam warehouse)) was 94. The FOB price of Indonesian high-grade nickel matte was $15,623/mt Ni.

[How Should Zinc Consumption Be Viewed Against the Backdrop of Geopolitical Conflicts?] Q1 2026 had passed, and the overall recovery in post-holiday consumption was somewhat delayed. How would consumption perform going forward?

This week, ternary cathode precursor prices rose somewhat. Today, nickel sulphate prices edged down slightly, cobalt sulphate prices held steady, and manganese sulphate prices increased slightly. Discounts, for April and Q2 orders, some producers were willing to raise discounts due to large fluctuations in raw material prices. Long-term contracts, some producers recently finalized long-term contracts; some producers saw slight increases in nickel and cobalt discounts, while some producers may still have some room for negotiation on processing fees. However, as downstream demand for high-priced raw materials remained weak, upside room is expected to be limited. Spot orders, the Ni-Co-Mn coefficient for March spot orders had already moved higher, and with current downstream procurement sentiment weak, further upside room is expected to be limited. Production, as China entered the off-season for demand this month, some enterprises saw their production schedules pull back. The export tax rebate deadline had passed, and production intensity at some enterprises related to the rush to export also declined. Looking ahead, cost support for sulphates remained relatively strong, but downstream acceptance of prices will depend on Q2 downstream demand.

As of now, the FOB price of nickel in Indonesian MHP was $15,383/mt Ni, and the FOB price of cobalt in Indonesian MHP was $51,364/mt Co. MHP payables (against the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index) were 86.5-87.5, and the payable indicator for cobalt element in MHP (against SMM refined cobalt (Rotterdam warehouse)) was 94. The FOB price of Indonesian high-grade nickel matte was $15,666/mt Ni.

In Q1 2026, China’s aluminum semis exports showed a pronounced pattern of product-category divergence amid the interplay of three factors: the long-term impact of the cancellation of export tax rebates in December 2024, the divergence in demand structures outside China, and the sudden outbreak of geopolitical conflict in the Strait of Hormuz.....