Policy Intensity Reshaping the Landscape, Costs Returning to Highs, and Structural Tightening of Market Supply

On April 9, 2026, the Japanese Cabinet officially approved the latest amendment to the Waste Disposal and Public Cleansing Act (commonly known as the "Waste Cleansing Act"). The core of the amendment is to upgrade metal recycling operations from a notification system to a permit system, and to impose a new obligation requiring confirmation from the Minister of the Environment for scrap metal exports.

April 21, 2026: Customs data showed that China's aluminum wire exports totaled 26,350 mt in March 2026, up 13 percentage points MoM and 16.64 percentage points YoY. In terms of export product structure, exports of aluminum conductor steel-reinforced (ACSR) cable reached 18,300 mt in March, accounting for 69.64%, while exports of other non-insulated stranded aluminum wire totaled 8,000 mt, accounting for 30.36%. From January to March, China's total aluminum wire exports reached 79,600 mt, up 29.5 percentage points YoY. (HS codes: 76141000, 76149000) By export destination, the top destination for aluminum wire and cable exports in March 2026 was Saudi Arabia in the Middle East, with exports totaling 6,330 mt, accounting for 24% of March exports. Although Middle East tensions have escalated since March and the Strait of Hormuz has been blocked, enterprises can opt to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope in Africa and reach ports through the Red Sea for domestic shipment, so the impact on orders has been relatively limited. The second-largest export destination was Tanzania in Africa, where steady release of local power grid project demand provided support for China's exports. In addition, based on last year's data, Middle East orders accounted for 10.4% of total exports, and given the availability of alternative shipping routes, the impact of the Strait of Hormuz on export destinations was relatively limited, with minimal effect on domestic orders. By province, China's aluminum wire export landscape remained stable. Jiangsu Province continued to rank first, with March exports of 13,459 mt, accounting for 51% of total exports, up 13.2 percentage points MoM. Henan Province ranked second with exports of 3,940 mt, accounting for 15% of total exports, up 16.6% MoM. Xinjiang achieved a MoM increase of 560.2%, with exports of 3,822 mt, ranking third. Overall, China's aluminum wire exports continued the high-volume trend in March 2026. Regions such as the Middle East, Africa, and Southeast Asia demonstrated steady demand release driven by power grid construction project progress, injecting growth momentum into China's aluminum wire exports in 2026. Meanwhile, aluminum production cuts outside China further widened the price spread between domestic and overseas markets, and subsequent exports are expected to demonstrate strong sustainability. In addition, as China's aluminum wire still enjoys export tax rebates, the resulting profit spread has led to emerging demand for re-melting exported stranded aluminum wire into aluminum ingots, further boosting China's aluminum wire exports. Based on optimistic expectations for overseas demand, coupled with order transmission lead times, China's aluminum wire exports in April–May are expected to approach or surpass the five-year high for single-month exports.

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's copper plate/sheet and strip exports in March 2026 reached 11,612.2 mt, up 38.32% MoM and up 10.14% YoY. From January to March, China's cumulative copper plate/sheet and strip exports totaled 33,241.21 mt, up 16.95% YoY cumulatively.

[SMM Analysis] Winds Rise in the Middle East, Ripples Spread Worldwide:Geopolitical Special Discussion and Q2 Outloo the Export Landscapek(2) Copyright and Intellectual Property Statement: This report is independently created or compiled by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "SMM"), and SMM legally enjoys complete copyright and related intellectual property rights. The copyright, trademark rights, domain name rights, commercial data information property rights, and other related intellectual property rights of all content contained in this report (including but not limited to information, articles, data, charts, pictures, audio, video, logos, advertisements, trademarks, trade names, domain names, layout designs, etc.) are owned or held by SMM or its related right holders. The above rights are strictly protected by relevant laws and regulations of the People's Republic of China, such as the Copyright Law of the People's Republic of China, the Trademark Law of the People's Republic of China, and the Anti-Unfair Competition Law of the People's Republic of China, as well as applicable international treaties. Without prior written authorization from SMM, no institution or individual may: 1. Use all or part of this report in any form (including but not limited to reprinting, modifying, selling, transferring, displaying, translating, compiling, disseminating); 2. Disclose the content of this report to any third party; 3. License or authorize any third party to use the content of this report; 4. For any unauthorized use, SMM will legally pursue the legal responsibilities of the infringer, demanding that they bear legal responsibilities including but not limited to contractual breach liability, returning unjust enrichment, and compensating for direct and indirect economic losses. Data Source Statement: (Except for publicly available information, other data in this report are derived from publicly available information (including but not limited to industry news, seminars, exhibitions, corporate financial reports, brokerage reports, data from the National Bureau of Statistics, customs import and export data, various data published by major associations and institutions, etc.), market exchanges, and comprehensive analysis and reasonable inferences made by the research team based on SMM's internal database models. This information is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice. SMM reserves the final interpretation right of the terms in this statement and the right to adjust and modify the content of the statement according to actual circumstances.

[SMM Analysis] Winds Rise in the Middle East, Ripples Spread Worldwide:Geopolitical Special Discussion and Q2 Outloo the Export Landscapek(1) Copyright and Intellectual Property Statement: This report is independently created or compiled by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "SMM"), and SMM legally enjoys complete copyright and related intellectual property rights. The copyright, trademark rights, domain name rights, commercial data information property rights, and other related intellectual property rights of all content contained in this report (including but not limited to information, articles, data, charts, pictures, audio, video, logos, advertisements, trademarks, trade names, domain names, layout designs, etc.) are owned or held by SMM or its related right holders. The above rights are strictly protected by relevant laws and regulations of the People's Republic of China, such as the Copyright Law of the People's Republic of China, the Trademark Law of the People's Republic of China, and the Anti-Unfair Competition Law of the People's Republic of China, as well as applicable international treaties. Without prior written authorization from SMM, no institution or individual may: 1. Use all or part of this report in any form (including but not limited to reprinting, modifying, selling, transferring, displaying, translating, compiling, disseminating); 2. Disclose the content of this report to any third party; 3. License or authorize any third party to use the content of this report; 4. For any unauthorized use, SMM will legally pursue the legal responsibilities of the infringer, demanding that they bear legal responsibilities including but not limited to contractual breach liability, returning unjust enrichment, and compensating for direct and indirect economic losses. Data Source Statement: (Except for publicly available information, other data in this report are derived from publicly available information (including but not limited to industry news, seminars, exhibitions, corporate financial reports, brokerage reports, data from the National Bureau of Statistics, customs import and export data, various data published by major associations and institutions, etc.), market exchanges, and comprehensive analysis and reasonable inferences made by the research team based on SMM's internal database models. This information is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice. SMM reserves the final interpretation right of the terms in this statement and the right to adjust and modify the content of the statement according to actual circumstances.