The core logic of the South American steel market is that end-user demand drives everything. Consumption demand is the starting point, filled jointly by local production and imports; imports act as a regulating valve rather than a driving force.

China Steel Market: [Sheets & plates] HRC export prices today were quoted at $492-496/mt, up $2-3/mt WoW, while other sheets & plates were up $1-4/mt WoW. Recent inquiry activity for sheets & plates was moderate, and Middle Eastern Gulf countries also began requesting FOB prices. Semi-finished products side, some steel mills reported that due to delayed shipping schedules combined with rising prices, recent slab transaction performance was lackluster. [Steel Billet] Billet export FOB prices were quoted at $472-475/mt, with high-end prices at $478/mt. Shipments to the Middle East with dual-certification requirements were quoted at $490-495/mt. Prices rose relatively quickly recently, and inquiry activity and actual transaction levels fell short of those seen at the beginning of the month. [Rebar] Rebar export FOB prices were quoted at $480-485/mt, flat from yesterday. Some steel mills reported that foreign-standard rebar quotes were on the stronger side, with high-priced resources difficult to transact. International Steel Market: [India] HRC export offers to the EU increased to ~$705/t CFR, mainly due to higher freight costs. Logistics disruptions (Red Sea, Suez, Hormuz) forced rerouting via the Cape, extending transit times and reducing competitiveness, while no deals were concluded as buyers remained cautious. Market sentiment is weak to cautious, with stalled Middle East trade and pressure from high freight costs and unclear demand. [UAE] Emirates Steel, a UAE-based steel company, has maintained the list price of 12-32mm diameter rebar for May delivery in the domestic market at 2,720.87 UAE dirhams per ton (USD 741) ex-works, the same as in April. [EU] A steel mill in Germany has announced that its rebar price will increase by $60 per ton to $835 per ton; a steel mill in Italy has indicated that the increase may exceed $60 per ton, with the latest price expected to exceed $860 per ton. In terms of driving factors, steel mills generally face rising energy costs, while tightened EU import protection (including CBAM costs and new measures effective from July) has strengthened the pricing power of European domestic steel mills. Although there are still large inventories of imported products in some markets, which may suppress short-term orders, under the combined cost pressure and policy support, the significant price increase is expected to be accepted by the market by mid-May.

According to an SMM survey, steel semi-finished product export orders have recently surged, with slab export orders seeing particularly significant growth. SMM believes two major factors contributed to this round of growth: "Demand" Provides the Necessary Condition for the Surge in Semi-Finished Product Export Orders On one hand, benefiting from the spillover effect of export demand caused by the US-Iran conflict, infrastructure and manufacturing in Southeast Asia have grown rapidly. However, the region only has rolling capacity and lacks steelmaking capacity, necessitating large imports of steel billet. According to data compiled by SMM, Southeast Asia imported approximately 2.31 million mt of steel from the Middle East in 2025, of which a staggering 97% was semi-finished steel billet. Therefore, when passage through the Strait of Hormuz was restricted, the Southeast Asian market was instantly exposed to a rigid shortfall of over 2 million mt. For detailed analysis, please refer to the article "Sudden Shift in Middle East Situation Triggers 'Mismatch,' China Accelerates to Fill Approximately 2.3 Million mt Supply Vacuum in Southeast Asia." The existence of this gap provides an excellent window for China's semi-finished product exports. "Price Advantage" Provides the Sufficient Condition for the Surge in Semi-Finished Product Export Orders On the other hand, price increases outside China far exceeded those in China. During this period, the FOB price of Dexin slabs in Indonesia rose from $470/mt to $540/mt, an increase of 14.89%, while the FOB price of slabs in China rose from $455/mt to $480/mt, an increase of only 5.49%. The huge price difference made buyers outside China particularly favour semi-finished products from China. SMM surveyed some recent slab transaction details from domestic sellers, as shown in the table below. Survey Records: Enterprise A: At the current price, they are willing to take slab orders, but orders have already been booked through August, with an estimated volume of 80,000 mt per month. Enterprise B: They started taking slab orders from April. They take orders when the price is right. The current price is only 20-30 yuan/mt lower than HRC. Enterprise C: They can only accept exporting slabs at HRC prices now. If overseas buyers don't want them, then forget it. Enterprise D: They haven't been in contact with new slab orders recently. Their last order was in March. However, if there is subsequent demand, they may have new resources available for export by June. Enterprise E: Their orders were all taken earlier. Previously, they were selling at over 100 yuan below HRC, but now the quoted price is only a few dozen yuan below HRC. However, transactions have clearly slowed down. The current ex-factory price is approximately 3,120. The surge in demand has driven prices higher. As shown in the chart below, normally the price spread between slabs and HRC stays around $20-30, which aligns with normal rolling costs. However, since April, this spread has narrowed to around $10, and has recently further narrowed to single digits. This is mainly because as steel mills' shipping schedules have gradually been pushed back, their willingness to hold prices firm has also strengthened. Some steel mills are even exporting slabs at prices equivalent to domestic HRC trade prices, which provides them with significant export motivation. Chart 1 - SMM China HRC & Slab Export FOB Price Trend SMM Expects Slab Exports to Rise Significantly, April-August In January-February this year, total steel billet exports were 1.7746 million mt, of which slabs accounted for 232,600 mt, square billets for 1.5196 million mt, and slabs made up 13.11%. Chart 2 - China Steel Billet Exports by Product, January-February 2026 Based on the survey, the increase in slab export orders was more of a March-April phenomenon. Considering the time interval from order placement to shipping schedule, SMM expects slab exports to show a relatively significant upward trend from April to August. Surge in Slab Orders May Improve HRC Fundamentals In April, the daily average production schedule for commercial HR products at 39 mills was 448,300 mt, up 8.5% MoM from actual daily average production. The daily average production schedule for commercial HR products at 54 steel mills was 581,100 mt, up 9.2% MoM from actual daily average production. HR supply pressure increased MoM, but the peak season performance of China's manufacturing sector during the "Golden March, Silver April" period was overall satisfactory. According to SMM data, as of April 9, total HRC inventory was 6.6556 million mt, down 111,100 mt WoW. Destocking is expected to maintain a healthy pace going forward. However, when the spot-futures price spread was at suitable levels before the Chinese New Year, traders engaged in futures-spot arbitrage were particularly active in North China and other regions, accelerating social inventory accumulation. Current social inventory is up 34.93% YoY. If steel mills' semi-finished product export orders perform well, this could create opportunities for subsequent reductions in commercial product supply, while also providing support for current prices.

India’s steel market in 2026 is expected to remain balanced, with demand slightly outpacing supply. Domestic consumption will absorb most output, while imports decline overall and exports increase modestly as a balancing mechanism. Supported by strong growth and infrastructure investment, India is transitioning toward a demand-led steel market with solid long-term potential.

According to the latest steel mill export scheduling data from the SMM survey, February's planned export volume is expected to decrease by 4.7% compared to January's actual export volume. Although overseas supply and demand conditions have improved, providing a favorable environment for China's exports, it is worth noting that starting March 8, Vietnam will impose a provisional anti-dumping duty of 19.38-27.83% on HRC from China. Vietnam is China's largest steel export destination, and sanctions on Chinese steel products from South Korea, India, and the US are increasing. Additionally, according to the SMM survey, some export traders are currently facing bottlenecks in taking orders. Therefore, SMM expects that steel exports in March may decline compared to this month.

[SMM Steel Import and Export Data Review] Cumulative Steel Exports in January-February Remain High YoY, External Pressure May Lead to a Decline in March? According to the latest SMM survey on steel mill export schedules, the planned export volume for February decreased by 4.7% compared to the actual export volume in January. Although overseas supply and demand conditions have improved, providing support for China's exports, it is worth noting that starting March 8, Vietnam will impose a provisional anti-dumping duty of 19.38-27.83% on Chinese HRC. Vietnam is China's largest steel export destination, and sanctions on Chinese steel products from South Korea, India, and the US are increasing. Additionally, based on the SMM survey, some export traders are currently facing bottlenecks in taking orders. Therefore, SMM expects that steel exports in March may decline compared to this month...