SMM: June NdFeB output rose 1.7% MoM to 32,985t on Pr-Nd fueled stockpiling, not demand recovery. With demand front-loaded and H2 facing seasonal lulls plus export policy risks, July output is set to drop. Overall H2 demand remains subdued.

SMM June 24 – Metals market: As of the midday close, all domestic base metals fell, with SHFE copper down 0.95%, SHFE aluminum down 1.11%, SHFE lead down 0.12%, SHFE zinc down 1.7%, SHFE nickel down 1.94%, and SHFE tin down 4.64% to a session low of 388,220 yuan/mt. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum contract fell 1.01%, the most-traded alumina contract rose 0.52%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 1.67%, the most-traded silicon metal contract edged down, and the most-traded polysilicon contract rose 0.28%. Ferrous metals showed mixed performance, with iron ore up 0.68%, rebar edging down, HRC edging up, and stainless steel down 1.27%. On the coking coal and coke front: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.64%, and the most-traded coke contract was at parity with 1,953.5 yuan/mt. On the overseas base metals front, as of 11:38, LME metals were nearly all lower. LME copper rose 0.24%, LME aluminum fell 0.67%, LME lead fell 0.44%, LME zinc and LME tin fell within 0.5%, and LME nickel edged down. On the precious metals front, as of 11:38, COMEX gold fell 1.86% and COMEX silver fell 1.34%. On the domestic precious metals front: the most-traded SHFE gold contract extended its losing streak from the previous four trading days, falling another 2.37% to a session low of 886.34 yuan/g; the most-traded SHFE silver contract extended its losing streak from the previous three trading days, falling another 5.08%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 0.6% and the most-traded palladium futures fell 1.41%. As of the midday close, the most-traded European container shipping futures contract rose 0.79% to 3,745 points. As of 11:38 on June 24, some futures midday market data: Spot and Fundamentals Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 80 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 20 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 60 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 103,310 yuan/mt, down 975 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average SX-EW copper price was 103,200 yuan/mt, down 970 yuan/mt. Spot market: Guangdong inventory rose for the fourth consecutive trading day, mainly due to increased arrivals... Macro Front Domestic Side: [Three Ministries Implement 2026 Insurance Compensation Policy for First (Set of) Major Technical Equipment] The MIIT General Office, the Ministry of Finance General Office, and the National Financial Regulatory Administration General Office issued a notice on implementing the 2026 insurance compensation policy for the first (set of) major technical equipment. The notice stated that complete equipment is generally supported based on the number of units (sets); core systems, key parts, key supporting components for major technical equipment, and basic components are generally supported based on the number of batches. For complete equipment such as high-end industrial machine tools, specialized electronic equipment, new-type agricultural machinery, and precision instruments and meters, which have relatively low per-unit value, support can be provided on a batch basis; for high-value core systems and key components like aircraft engines and marine engines, support can be provided on a per-unit basis. [Ultra-long special government bonds have helped upgrade over 360,000 elevators] On June 24, it was learned from the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development that since the state included the upgrading of old residential elevators into the scope of ultra-long special government bond funding support, various localities have actively relied on policy support to vigorously promote the upgrading of old residential elevators, facilitating residents' convenient travel. To date, a total of over 360,000 old residential elevators have been upgraded. (CCTV News) [PBOC reverse repo net injection of 242.2 billion yuan today] The PBOC today conducted 662.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations at an operation rate of 1.4%, unchanged from the previous. Today, 420.3 billion yuan of reverse repo matures. US Dollar: As of 11:38, the US dollar index rose 0.1% to 101.47. On the data front: on June 24, S&P Global released data showing that the US June composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) flash reading rose to 52.2, higher than the previous 51.5 and market expectations of 52.1, hitting a five-month high and indicating continued expansion in US business activity. By sector, manufacturing stood out. New orders grew at the fastest pace in over four years, driving a marked pickup in factory production. The US June manufacturing PMI flash reading rose to 55.7, the highest since May 2022, exceeding the expected 54.6 and the prior 55.1. Meanwhile, the service sector also maintained expansion, with the June services PMI flash reading climbing to 51.3, a four-month high, above the expected 51.1 and the prior 50.7. At the same time, easing cost pressure expectations due to the de-escalation of Middle East tensions also boosted business confidence. However, the survey also showed that issues such as supply chain delays, rising raw material costs, and slowing employment persist, and the foundation for economic recovery is not solid. (From Wall Street Insight APP) According to CNBC, as the search for the next president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta enters its seventh month, the hiring process is being closely watched. Observers hope to see how the new Fed chief Warsh will reshape the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which is responsible for setting interest rate policy. As Warsh began to exert his personal influence within the Fed, the selection process shifted. During former Fed Chairman Powell’s tenure, the Fed had already been scouting candidates for the Atlanta Fed president job title, according to two people familiar with the hiring process. However, to allow Warsh to take the lead on the appointment, the selection process was temporarily suspended. Because the search is still ongoing, both sources requested anonymity. They noted that Michael Faulkender, who previously served as a senior Treasury official under President Trump, was subsequently added to the list of candidates for the Atlanta Fed presidency. It remains unclear whether Faulkender is still a candidate. (Jin10 Data App) According to CME “FedWatch”: the probability that the Fed holds rates steady in July is 62.6%, while the probability of a cumulative 25bps hike is 37.4%. The probability that the Fed holds rates steady through September is 29.8%, with a 50.6% chance of a cumulative 25bps hike and a 19.6% chance of a cumulative 50bps hike. In other currencies: Data released on Wednesday showed that Australia’s CPI slowed in May, weighed down by lower fuel costs and reduced holiday travel demand. Still, core inflation came in above expectations, suggesting that further rate hikes cannot be ruled out. According to Australian Bureau of Statistics data, the CPI fell 0.7% MoM in May, while the YoY growth rate slowed to 4%, down from the previous reading of 4.2% and compared with market expectations of a 0.4% MoM decline and 4.3% YoY growth. However, core inflation, which strips out volatile items, rose 0.4% MoM in May—topping expectations of 0.3%—pushing the annual rate to 3.6%. The RBA has already hiked rates three times this year as it seeks to pull core inflation back into its 2%–3% target range. The Bank of Japan signaled in the minutes of last week’s board meeting that there is a need to further raise the benchmark interest rate. At that meeting, the BOJ lifted the policy rate to its highest level since 1995. According to the minutes released on Wednesday, one member stated: “Given that core CPI inflation is close to 2% and financial conditions remain accommodative, the Bank should continue raising the policy rate in response to the current economic, inflation and financial environment.” While the BOJ’s move last week marked its first rate hike since last December and signaled clearly that more increases are ahead, the minutes offered no explicit guidance on the timing of the next hike. Even so, they reinforced market expectations for another rate increase before the end of the year. The day after the meeting concluded, a survey of economists showed that about 90% of respondents expected another rate hike before December, with over one-third projecting October as the next adjustment window. Economists now expect the benchmark rate in this hiking cycle to reach 1.75%, up from the 1.5% forecast in the survey earlier this month. (Jin10 Data App) Data: Today will see the release of Australia's unadjusted May CPI y/y, Germany's June IFO business climate index, Switzerland's June ZEW investor sentiment index, the Q1 US current account, and US new home sales (annualized) for May, among other data. Also on watch: the Bank of Japan publishes a summary of opinions from the board members on the June monetary policy meeting; the 2026 Shanghai Mobile World Congress runs through June 26. Crude Oil: As of 11:38, oil prices on both exchanges fell, with WTI down 1.08% and Brent off 0.87%. Following a temporary peace agreement between the US and Iran, tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz resumed, keeping international crude prices under pressure. (Wall Street News) Iran's ambassador in Geneva stated that the Strait of Hormuz is fully open to commercial vessels, and a significant volume of oil has been transported through the waterway in recent days. (Jin10 Data App) On June 23 local time, US President Trump said the United States is "working toward a fair agreement with Iran" to end the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz. He noted that 19 million barrels of oil were transported through the strait just the previous day (June 22). Trump reiterated that "Iran cannot have nuclear weapons" and indicated that work on the matter is progressing well. (CCTV) Spot Market at a Glance: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM June 24 News: On the metals market front: Overnight, domestic base metals fell nearly across the board. SHFE tin dropped 4.59%, SHFE copper fell 1.13%, SHFE zinc declined 1.59%, SHFE aluminum lost 1.47%, and SHFE nickel slid 2.21%. SHFE lead edged up 0.06%. Additionally, the most-traded alumina futures contract rose 0.17%, while the most-traded cast aluminum contract fell 1.07%. Overnight, ferrous metals showed mixed performance. Iron ore rose 0.68%, rebar edged up 0.19%, hot-rolled coil gained 0.18%, while stainless steel fell 1.41%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract declined 0.56%, and the most-traded coke contract dropped 0.38%. On the overseas metals market front, LME base metals fell across the board overnight. LME copper dropped 2.18%, LME aluminum fell 2.99%, LME lead declined 1.04%, LME zinc lost 2.79%, LME tin plunged 4.1%, and LME nickel slid 2.71%. Overnight in precious metals: COMEX gold fell 1.75%, and COMEX silver dropped 6.03%. SHFE gold declined 0.82%, and SHFE silver lost 4.36%. As of 7:16 on June 24, overnight closing prices: Macro Front On the domestic front: [Notice from the Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments on issuing measures to cultivate and expand consumption in the automotive aftermarket] The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments issued a notice on measures to cultivate and expand consumption in the automotive aftermarket. The notice mentioned regulating and orderly developing car modification. Establish and improve car modification management systems. Formulate policy documents to promote the development of the car modification market, clarify the implementation of graded and classified management for car modification, define the list of car modification items, and improve management requirements such as vehicle inspection and registration changes. Improve the car modification standard system. Study the establishment of a national automotive standardization technical committee car modification sub-technical committee, sort out the list of standards to be developed and revised, accelerate the formulation of a batch of national standards, and research and develop car modification parts and technical specifications. The notice proposed supporting the development of the RV and camping industry. Improve the RV traffic and usage environment. Support local governments in optimizing RV on-road traffic management policies. Simplify the approval process for RV campsite land use. Enhance the level of supporting services at RV campsites. In combination with regional cultural and tourism resources, encourage the construction of a batch of high-standard, multi-functional RV campsites along scenic byways, suburban areas, and other regions, and improve supporting services such as maintenance and supply, hydropower support, medical rescue, and catering and accommodation. Optimize the setting of RV campsite signage and publish premium RV tour routes. When constructing or renovating public parking lots in cities, if conditions permit, dedicated parking spaces for self-propelled and towable RVs can be set up and managed better to meet RV parking needs. [Ministry of Commerce: As of June 22, the consumer trade-in program has cumulatively driven sales of related goods to 5 trillion yuan] Yang Mu, Director of the Department of Market Operation and Consumer Promotion at the Ministry of Commerce, stated at a press conference of the State Council Information Office on June 23 that as of June 22 this year, the consumer trade-in program had cumulatively driven sales of related goods to 5 trillion yuan, benefiting 630 million person-times. Among them, car trade-in sales accounted for 63%, playing a positive role in benefiting people's livelihoods, expanding consumption, optimizing industries, and promoting circulation. (from Wallstreetcn APP) [Shenzhen: Emphasize systematic layout and flexible supply to build a good computing network, and strengthen computing capacity supply] On June 23, the Shenzhen Municipal Party Committee held a special meeting to deeply implement the decisions and plans of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, carry out the work requirements of the provincial party committee and provincial government, seize opportunities, and promote the planning and construction of the city's "Six Networks" with high quality and efficiency. Jin Lei, Secretary of the Municipal Party Committee, presided over the meeting and delivered a speech. Qin Weizhong, Deputy Secretary of the Municipal Party Committee and Mayor, made work arrangements. Lin Jie, Chairperson of the Municipal Committee of the CPPCC, attended. The meeting emphasized focusing on key points and targeted efforts to improve the level and quality of the planning and construction of the "Six Networks". It highlighted the need for intensive, efficient, safe, and reliable construction of a modern water network, with a complete and systematic water resource allocation and supply guarantee network, a solid and resilient "flood-tide" risk protection network, and a happy and beautiful green ecological network. It stressed the need for expansion, quality improvement, intelligence, and flexibility in building a new-type power grid, continuously strengthening channel layout optimization, network construction, and digital and intelligent transformation of the power grid to create a stronger, greener, and more intelligent new-type power grid. It emphasized systematic layout and flexible supply to build a computing network, enhance computing capacity supply, deepen computing interconnectivity, and pay more attention to computing-power coordination. It highlighted high-speed, ubiquitous, integrated, and empowering construction of a new-generation communication network, accelerating the construction of national-level internet backbone direct connection points, 6G technology R&D and commercial deployment, "dual-gigabit" network popularization, and satellite network applications. It stressed collaborative linkage, safety, and resilience in building urban underground pipeline networks, adhering to the principles of being practical, pragmatic, and effective, strengthening planning coordination, accelerating old network renovation, enhancing digital empowerment, and constructing underground utility tunnels according to local conditions. It emphasized internal and external accessibility and efficient circulation to build a logistics network, targeting broader connectivity, stronger facilities, higher value, and newer scenarios to further optimize functional layout and coordinate the construction of a modern logistics network system. (Published by Shenzhen) On the US dollar front: Overnight, the US dollar index rose 0.37% to 101.37. The greenback touched its highest level since last November on Tuesday, as traders cemented their expectations for Fed rate hikes this year. The Fed's policy outlook contrasts with other global central banks. Traders now anticipate nearly two 25-basis-point rate hikes by early 2027. Jordan Rochester, a strategist at Mizuho International, said: "The dollar has upside room, and it tends to strengthen before Fed rate hikes; the market is currently debating that the rate-hike cycle could start in September." (JINSHI Data APP) According to CME's "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 62.6%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 37.4%. For September, the probability of maintaining rates is 29.8%, that of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 50.6%, and that of a cumulative 50-basis-point increase is 19.6%. On June 23, S&P Global released data showing that the US June flash composite PMI rose to 52.2, above the previous 51.5 and the market expectation of 52.1, hitting a five-month high , indicating that US business activity continued to expand. By sector, manufacturing stood out particularly. The growth rate of new orders hit the fastest pace in more than four years, driving a clear pickup in factory production activities. The US June flash manufacturing PMI rose to 55.7, the highest since May 2022, above the expected 54.6 and the prior 55.1 . Meanwhile, the service sector also maintained its expansion momentum, with the June flash services PMI rising to 51.3, a four-month high, above the forecast 51.1 and the previous 50.7 . At the same time, expectations of easing cost pressures due to the relaxation of Middle East tensions also boosted business confidence. However, the survey also indicated that problems such as supply chain delays, rising raw material costs, and slowing employment persist, suggesting that the economic recovery remains on shaky ground. (from Wallstreetcn APP) On other currencies: Bank of Canada Governor Macklem stated that the agreement between the US and Iran to end the conflict and allow crude oil to be transported through the Strait of Hormuz is a welcome development for the global economy. Macklem briefly mentioned this during a speech themed on global imbalances, saying, "Global energy prices have started to decline, though many issues remain to be resolved." Driven by rising gasoline prices, Canada's inflation rate accelerated to its highest level since 2023 in May. Economists believe that an immediate drop in energy prices should lead to softer headline inflation, which, given core CPI appears under control, will provide further reassurance for the Bank of Canada. (JINSHI Data APP) On the macro front: Data to be released today include Australia's May unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate, Germany's June IFO Business Climate Index, Switzerland's June ZEW Investor Confidence Index, the US Q1 current account, and US May new home sales annualized. Additionally, attention should be paid to the release of the summary of opinions from the Bank of Japan's June monetary policy meeting, and the MWC Shanghai 2026 event running through June 26. On the crude oil front: Overnight, both oil futures fell, with WTI dropping 1.1% and Brent declining 1.02%. The market is closely watching crude oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz. On June 23 local time, US President Trump stated that the US is "committed to reaching a fair agreement with Iran" to end the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz. He added that just the day before (June 22), 19 million barrels of oil had been transported through the strait. Trump reiterated that "Iran cannot have nuclear weapons" and that current work is progressing smoothly. (CCTV) On the data front: For the week ending June 19, US API crude oil inventory fell by 765,000 barrels, compared with expectations for a decline of 4.995 million barrels and the prior week's drop of 8.33 million barrels. Gasoline inventories rose by 1.238 million barrels, against expectations for a 350,000-barrel decline and the prior week's increase of 2.479 million barrels. (JINSHI Data APP) Furthermore, Russia's gasoline shortage is worsening after Ukraine's continued drone attacks on refineries, with at least two-thirds of the country's regions having implemented fuel rationing or experiencing supply disruptions. From areas bordering Ukraine to the Amur Oblast in the Far East, local governors are forced to restrict fuel sales at gas stations almost daily and attempt to curb panic buying. The extent of supply disruptions varies by region, but the situation is overall deteriorating, and could worsen if drone attacks increase further. (JINSHI Data APP)

Latin American Air Conditioner Market: Under Pressure in the Short Term, Promising in the Long Term. In the short term, regional inflation and exchange rate fluctuations suppress consumer purchasing power, compounded by previously high channel inventory, resulting in weak users’ willingness to stockpile proactively, and market demand is under temporary pressure; in the long term, the region has ample climate-driven rigid demand and a low market penetration rate. As the economy recovers and inventory is cleared, there will be considerable room for subsequent demand recovery.

SMM May 6: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic market base metals all rose. SHFE copper gained 1.65%. SHFE aluminum gained 1.17%. SHFE lead gained 1.74%, SHFE zinc gained 2.24%. SHFE tin gained 6.6%. SHFE nickel gained 3.86%. In addition, casting aluminum most-traded futures gained 1.07%, alumina most-traded fell 0.56%. Lithium carbonate most-traded gained 6.59%. Silicon metal most-traded gained 1.77%. Polysilicon most-traded futures gained 1%. Ferrous metals all rose, with iron ore up 2.52%, rebar up 1.44%, hot-rolled coil up 2.02%, and stainless steel up 1.81%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract gained 2.29%, and the most-traded coke contract gained 2.04%. Overseas market base metals, as of 11:42, LME metals rose across the board. LME copper gained 1.37%. LME aluminum gained 0.36%, LME lead gained 0.41%, LME zinc gained 1.65%. LME tin gained 4.43%. LME nickel gained 1.66%. Precious metals, as of 11:42, COMEX gold gained 1.85%, COMEX silver gained 3.18%. Domestic market precious metals: SHFE gold most-traded gained 1.84%, SHFE silver most-traded gained 5.15%. Analysts said gold futures prices rose as Middle East tensions eased. Vivek Dhar of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia noted in a research report that Trump announced a temporary suspension of the plan to provide safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz for vessels, which eased tensions. Since gold hit an intraday high of $5,422 per ounce on March 2, gold futures have largely moved inversely with the degree of Middle East tensions. Dhar added that upside drivers for gold prices could come from several factors: hopes for a Middle East ceasefire, market pricing of interest rate cuts due to high energy prices dragging on global growth, and concerns over US Fed independence. (Jin10 Data) In addition, as of the midday close, platinum most-traded futures gained 4.14%, and palladium most-traded futures gained 4.42%. As of the midday close, the most-traded contract of Europe containerized freight index gained 2.75%, closing at 2,339.3 points. As of 11:42 on May 6, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot Cargo and Fundamentals Zinc: Today, #0 zinc mainstream transaction prices were concentrated at 23,845-24,215 yuan/mt. Shuangyan had no transactions for now. #1 zinc mainstream transaction prices were at 23,775-24,145 yuan/mt. In the morning session, the market quoted premiums of 70-100 yuan/mt against SMM average prices, with no quotes against futures for now... Macro Front China: [China's April RatingDog services PMI rose to 52.6, accelerating expansion, with new orders achieving growth for the 40th consecutive month] China's services sector activity further accelerated expansion in April, with the composite PMI climbing to the second-highest level in nearly two years, indicating that domestic economic recovery momentum was still building. On May 6, the latest data showed that the RatingDog China General Services business activity index rose to 52.6 in April, up from 52.1 in March, signaling an acceleration within a continuous growth sequence, with the current expansion cycle having started in January 2023 . Meanwhile, the composite output index covering both manufacturing and services rose from 51.5 in March to 53.1, the second-fastest pace since May 2024, indicating a broad-based strengthening of China's overall business activity. [11.279 million cross-border trips made during Labour Day holiday, up 3.5% compared to the same period last year] According to the National Immigration Administration, border inspection agencies nationwide facilitated 11.279 million cross-border trips during this year's Labour Day holiday, with a daily average of 2.256 million trips, up 3.5% compared to last year's Labour Day holiday. The single-day peak occurred on May 2, reaching 2.529 million trips. Among them, foreign nationals made 1.255 million entry and exit trips, up 12.5% compared to the same period last year; of the inbound foreign nationals, 436,000 trips were made under visa-free policies, up 14.7% compared to the same period last year. A total of 531,000 cross-border transport vehicles (aircraft, vessels, trains, and automobiles) were inspected, up 16.6% compared to the same period last year. (CCTV News) [MIIT: Q1 revenue of large-scale electronic information manufacturers up 14.8% YoY] MIIT released the operating performance of the electronic information manufacturing industry for Q1 2026. In Q1 2026, China's electronic information manufacturing industry saw rapid production growth, continued export rebound, significant improvement in profitability, and accelerated investment growth, with the industry maintaining a sound overall development momentum. In Q1, large-scale electronic information manufacturers achieved revenue of 4.31 trillion yuan, up 14.8% YoY; operating costs were 3.69 trillion yuan, up 11.7% YoY; total profits reached 217 billion yuan, up 1.25 times YoY. In March, large-scale electronic information manufacturers achieved revenue of 1.68 trillion yuan, up 15.7% YoY. [PBOC net drained 393.1 billion yuan through reverse repo operations] PBOC conducted 26 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 419.1 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net drainage of 393.1 billion yuan was achieved. US dollar: As of 11:42, the US dollar index fell 0.21% to 98.28. According to US financial website investinglive, USD/JPY dropped over 100 points in the short term, down more than 1% intraday, pulling back below the 157.00 level. The timing seems right — today is a Japanese market holiday, and the two previous intervention attempts also occurred in the window between the Asian session and the European session open. That said, the two previous interventions happened at a point closer to when USD/JPY had just broken through 157. This time, USD/JPY rallied all the way to near 158 before the suspected intervention occurred. Despite multiple attempts by Japan's Ministry of Finance, the effectiveness of intervention actions since last week has been diminishing, especially as fundamental factors continue to work overwhelmingly against the yen. The question then becomes how much money the Japanese authorities are willing to throw at this problem to make the intervention truly effective. Given the current broader economic backdrop, this is indeed a very thorny dilemma. The greatest hope Japanese officials are pinning on right now is that the US-Iran conflict can subside, thereby easing the pressure on the Japanese economy. Otherwise, they will continue swimming against a massive tide, trying to convince traders not to keep selling the yen. (Jin Shi Data) US President Trump posted that, based on requests from Pakistan and other countries, and given our tremendous military victories in actions against Iran, as well as significant progress made on a comprehensive final agreement with Iranian representatives, both sides have agreed that while blockade measures will remain in effect, "Operation Freedom" (the movement of ships through the Strait of Hormuz) will be paused for a period of time to see whether the agreement can be finalized and signed. (Xinhua News Agency) Bond traders are ramping up bets that the US Fed's next policy move could be a rate hike rather than an interest rate cut. Swap contracts tied to central bank rate decisions now show that the market expects a greater than 50% probability of the US Fed raising rates before April next year, ahead of any interest rate cut. An increasing number of traders are also adding positions to hedge against the rising probability of a rate hike before year-end. This shift in market sentiment comes as policymakers appear increasingly divided on the interest rate outlook. Lawrence Gillum, chief fixed income strategist at LPL Financial, believes that the possibility of interest rate cuts this year still exists, but it will gradually diminish as the Iran conflict drags on. He stated: "Without a doubt, the road ahead for Waller will be full of challenges." According to the CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed holding rates unchanged through June is 96.0%, with a cumulative probability of a 25-basis-point cut at 4.0%. The probability of the US Fed holding rates unchanged through July is 88.8%, with a cumulative probability of a 25-basis-point cut at 10.9%, and a cumulative probability of a 50-basis-point cut at 0.3%. Bill Northey, Senior Investment Director at US Bank Asset Management Group, stated: "At this point, it appears that the Iran situation has not materially escalated, and the market is breathing a sigh of relief." Although hostilities in the Middle East appeared to ease on Tuesday, the conflict continued to affect future US economic indicators and the US Fed's interest rate decisions. He added that, for example, if the Strait of Hormuz could be safely and fully reopened, it would dampen expectations of rising inflation and push 10-year US Treasury yields lower. "Our base expectation is that this volatility is likely to persist," Northey said. (Jin10 Data) Data: Data to be released today include France's March industrial production MoM, France's April services PMI final, Germany's April services PMI final, Eurozone April services PMI final, UK April services PMI final, Eurozone March PPI MoM, US April ADP employment, and US April Global Supply Chain Pressure Index. Also noteworthy: 2028 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem is scheduled to speak on the economic outlook and monetary policy. Crude oil: As of 11:42, oil prices in both markets declined, with WTI down 1.39% and Brent down 1.4%. ING's commodities strategy team said in a report that the oil market faced renewed downward pressure as the US-Iran ceasefire agreement appeared to hold. Trump stated that "significant progress" had been made toward a "full and final deal" with Iran. The team noted that reaching an agreement to normalize oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz was crucial. (Jin10 Data) After the Iran conflict triggered fuel supply panic in Australia, Australia plans to include a A$10 billion ($7.2 billion) fuel security and resilience plan in next week's budget proposal. Australian Prime Minister Albanese stated that the plan would help build fuel and fertilizer reserves, including supporting the expansion of total diesel and aviation fuel reserves to a level sufficient for 50 days of supply. He also said the government itself would hold approximately 1 billion liters of fuel reserves. The Prime Minister and the Energy Minister discussed the plan after a national security meeting in Sydney. Australia's Energy Minister stated that Australia had responded to the crisis and currently held more domestic fuel reserves than at the start of the Iran conflict. He said: "This marks a significant shift in how our nation responds. We have been studying how to be better prepared for future shocks." (Jin10 Data) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

Mercuria Energy Group has entered into a series of strategic offtake agreements with Heeney Capital, targeting bulk commodities and gold projects in Venezuela. This initiative aims to revitalize Venezuela's energy and mining sectors and was formalized at Miraflores Palace in Caracas with Mercuria's managing director, James Gilbert, in attendance. The agreements, which emerged from a high-level delegation visit involving US officials, are expected to unlock approximately $2.2 billion in annual mineral export value. This collaboration reflects broader international efforts to support Venezuela's economic recovery and secure supply chains for critical materials while aligning with US strategies to promote responsible investment in the region's extractive industries.