![[SMM Analysis] China's Stainless Steel Futures Slip as "Silver April" Season Opens on Weak Footing](https://imgqn.smm.cn/production/admin/votes/imagesOQbnU20260403184112.jpeg)
Supply glut, cautious demand, and fading cost support drag the benchmark contract down RMB 205/mt in the week of March 30 – April
Apr 3, 2026 18:38Next Monday, markets outside China will be closed for one day on April 6 for the Easter holiday, including the LME and other exchanges. Meanwhile, China will also be in the Qingming Festival holiday, with the SHFE and other exchanges likewise closed. In terms of macroeconomic data, key releases include China’s March CPI YoY and the US March non-seasonally adjusted CPI YoY, while the US Fed will also release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting. LME lead, geopolitical tensions outside China have repeatedly resurfaced and the situation remained relatively severe, with the impact on energy, shipping, and other areas continuing. China’s lead ingot import window had remained open for a long time, attracting overseas lead ingot inflows into the Chinese market and reducing spot lead circulation in Southeast Asia and other markets. Especially during periods of rising LME lead, LME Cash-3M contango further narrowed WoW to -$20.77/mt, which will support lead prices to hold up well. LME lead is expected to trade at $1,890-1,965/mt next week. SHFE lead, lead ingot supply is expected to increase in April, but the consumption side is facing the traditional off-season. Coupled with the Qingming Festival holiday, when downstream enterprises will be on holiday, the risk of post-holiday lead ingot inventory buildup will rise, which will weigh on the upward momentum of lead prices. In addition, delivery of the SHFE lead 2604 contract will come onto the agenda after the holiday, and attention should be paid to changes in plant warehouse lead ingot inventory into visible inventory, with caution against lead prices retreating after rapid rise. The most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade at 16,500-16,900 yuan/mt next week. Spot price forecast: 16,350-16,700 yuan/mt. During the Qingming Festival holiday, many downstream enterprises plan to take time off, leading to a temporary absence of lead consumption. Together with the approaching traditional off-season, downstream enterprises will maintain purchase as needed. On the supply side, production at primary lead and secondary lead enterprises will rise steadily, while imported lead continues to flow into China, making it possible for spot discounts for lead to widen.
Apr 3, 2026 16:49Thu, 02-Apr-2026 12:23 Gold investing sentiment never stronger outside financial or Covid crisis... GOLD's SHARPEST price drop in 13 years just saw a record number of investors buy the precious metal on BullionVault as the US and Israel went to war with Iran, writes Adrian Ash at the world-leading marketplace. Private investors have seized on gold's price drop because this sudden retreat has given buyers the chance to reset the clock back before January's historic price spike. After setting new all-time highs and rising for 9 months in a row − gold's longest-ever run of unbroken gains − the price of gold sank by 11.8% in March (-10.5% in UK Pounds, -9.7% in Euros) as the oil-price shock drove profit-taking by central banks, institutional investors and traders needing to cover losses in stocks and bonds. Jumping on the price drop, the number of investors choosing to buy gold on BullionVault − now used by 130,000 private investors worldwide and finding 9-in-10 of its clients in Western Europe and North America − rose by almost one-fifth from February's count (+18.2%). That meant buyers topped this New Year's previous record and outnumbered sellers (who rose 0.4%) nearly 3-to-1. It also means that investing sentiment in gold has only been stronger at the peak of the financial crisis and then the Covid pandemic. Tracking the number of buyers versus sellers on BullionVault each month, the Gold Investor Index is a unique gauge of sentiment built solely from actual gold trading decisions. Rebased so that a reading of 50.0 would signal a perfect balance of buyers and sellers, the Global Gold Investor Index set a lifetime high of 71.7 in September 2011, and it hit a series low of 47.5 in March 2024 when gold prices rose to what were then fresh record prices in the absence of any notable economic or financial stress. This March the Gold Investor Index rose to 60.7, adding 2.3 points to reach its highest reading since August 2020 and extending the uptrend begun on the eve of the US presidential election in autumn 2024 . Having risen so sharply during Trump's first year back in the White House, gold has shocked many observers by falling during the Iran War so far. But while gold now faces headwinds from higher inflation threatening a rise in interest rates, the danger of economic stagflation only boosts the need to spread portfolio risk as the geopolitical order breaks down. The breadth of demand says that gold remains a compelling investment in today's uncertain and increasingly dangerous world. In contrast to gold, investing sentiment in silver fell in March as the more industrially-useful precious metal sank in price, with BullionVault's gauge dropping to a 4-month low. But that still put the Silver Investor Index at 60.1, greater than all but 12 of the series' 170 previous monthly readings. Silver's price crash of 19.2% in US Dollar terms was its worst 1-month loss since September 2011 (the worst in GBP since Sept '11 at 17.5%; the worst since March 2020 in EUR at 16.8%). In response, investors using BullionVault bought almost 1.5 tonnes more than they sold as a group, taking total client holdings to 1,134 tonnes worth more than $2.6bn (£2.0bn, €2.3bn). Gold's price drop meanwhile saw BullionVault users buy more gold than they sold by weight for the first time since October, growing their total holdings by 0.2% to more than 43.4 tonnes worth $6.4 billion (£4.8bn, €5.5bn). New account openings fell by 1/3rd from February's figure (-33.2%) and totalled less than 2/5ths of January's all-time record (-60.5%). But March still marked the 8th strongest month for first-time users of BullionVault in the West London fintech's 21-year history. Altogether, the first 3 months of 2026 have now brought more new customers to BullionVault than all but 3 full calendar years since it opened in April 2005. Adrian Ash Adrian Ash is director of research at BullionVault, the world-leading physical gold, silver, platinum and palladium market for private investors online. Formerly head of editorial at London's top publisher of private-investment advice, he was City correspondent for The Daily Reckoning from 2003 to 2008, and he has now been researching and writing daily analysis of precious metals and the wider financial markets for over 20 years. A frequent guest on BBC radio and television, Adrian is regularly quoted by the Financial Times , MarketWatch and many other respected news outlets, and his views from inside the bullion market have been sought by the Economist magazine, CNBC, Bloomberg, Germany's Handelsblatt and FAZ , plus Italy's Il Sole 24 Ore. See the full archive of Adrian Ash articles on GoldNews. Please Note: All articles published here are to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it. Please review our Terms & Conditions for accessing Gold News . Source: https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-news/gold-investor-index/buy-gold-iran-war-040220261
Apr 3, 2026 16:46The gold price set a technical signal last week while providing fresh fuel for the debate over its future direction.
Apr 3, 2026 16:39This week, stainless steel spot prices fell slightly more than production costs, further worsening the inversion between stainless steel mill prices and costs. Taking 304 cold-rolled products as an example, based on raw material prices on the day, the full cost profit margin was -1.19% this week; calculated based on raw material inventory costs, the margin was -0.55%. Nickel-series raw material costs, high-grade NPI prices remained in the doldrums this week. Although nickel ore prices are currently holding firm and NPI traders are broadly bullish, SHFE nickel futures have been weak recently, while downstream stainless steel prices have struggled to rise. Stainless steel mills themselves are under heavy cost pressure and have shown low acceptance of high-priced raw materials, resulting in sparse market transactions recently; affected by this, high-grade NPI traders have faced considerable transaction pressure, and the price center edged lower slightly. As of this Friday, high-grade NPI with a grade of 10-12% fell by 2 yuan per nickel unit to 1,081.5 yuan/nickel unit. Stainless steel scrap market, stainless steel scrap prices were stable this week, and the decline in finished stainless steel prices did not transmit to the steel scrap market, while prices of substitute furnace charge also remained stable. Tightness in tax invoices eased, the economic advantage of steel scrap became more evident, and high stainless steel mill production schedules drove higher consumption, lifting market transactions and easing inventory pressure. However, finished product prices struggled to rise, limiting upside room for steel scrap prices, which are expected to remain stable in the short term. As of this Friday, the price of 304 off-cuts in Shanghai rose by 100 yuan/mt, with the latest quote at around 10,150 yuan/mt. Chrome-series raw material costs, high-carbon ferrochrome prices dropped back slightly this week. Although some ferrochrome producers recently reported maintenance and production cuts, and stainless steel production schedules for April remained high, leaving retail spot supply in the ferrochrome market relatively tight, stainless steel mills had built relatively ample ferrochrome raw material inventories earlier. Meanwhile, high port inventories of chrome ore recently caused some loosening in chrome ore spot prices. In addition, ferrochrome capacity has already reached a high level, the rainy season in south China is approaching, and ferrochrome producers outside China are resuming production. With ferrochrome producers lacking confidence in the outlook, ferrochrome prices still faced some downward pressure. As of this Friday, high-carbon ferrochrome prices in Inner Mongolia fell 25 yuan/mt (50% metal content) WoW to 8,625 yuan/mt (50% metal content).
Apr 3, 2026 16:36This week, the nickel market generally showed a pattern of "falling first and then rebounding, moving sideways within a range," with an intense tug-of-war between longs and shorts. The core fluctuation range of the most-traded SHFE nickel contract was around 133,000-138,000 yuan/mt, down 1.82% on a weekly basis, while the LME nickel 3M contract also fluctuated lower this week, down 0.67%. In the spot market, the average SMM #1 refined nickel price was 136,600 yuan/mt this week, down 3,300 yuan/mt WoW. Jinchuan nickel premiums weakened sharply, falling all the way from 5,000 yuan/mt at the beginning of the week to 3,650 yuan/mt on Friday, with the weekly average at about 3,900 yuan/mt. Against the backdrop of high inventory in China, imported cargoes still faced circulation pressure, suppliers showed stronger willingness to sell, and premiums declined in tandem. Overall spot transactions were sluggish. With the Qingming Festival approaching and prices remaining high, downstream buyers showed insufficient purchasing enthusiasm, with rigid demand dominating. On the macro front, at the end of Q1 2026, US economic data showed stronger-than-expected resilience, undermining market confidence in a US Fed interest rate cut before June. This supported a stronger US dollar in the short term and put valuation pressure on commodities such as nickel. China's official manufacturing PMI for March came in at 50.5%, remaining in expansion territory for a second consecutive month, indicating signs of a manufacturing recovery. Repeated fluctuations in the Middle East situation have caused oil price fluctuations, driving swings in overall risk appetite across the commodities market, and nickel prices showed a relatively strong linkage to financial factors. Inventory side, Shanghai Bonded Zone inventory was about 1,700 mt this week, flat WoW. China's social inventory was about 92,000 mt, with an inventory buildup of about 1,800 mt WoW. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to remain in a tug-of-war pattern of "strong support from the cost floor, weak actual demand, and policy-driven sentiment disruptions," making rangebound fluctuations more likely. The core fluctuation range of the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to be 130,000-138,000 yuan/mt.
Apr 3, 2026 16:22SMM Clarification Statement SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "SMM" or "the Company"), as a professional spot market price reporting agency and information provider, has recently noticed the circulation of false information regarding the fairness of SMM's price assessment. To avoid market misunderstandings, maintain a healthy and transparent market environment, and protect the Company's legitimate rights and interests, SMM hereby makes the following solemn clarification and statement: I. The Difference Between Spot Prices and Futures Prices is a Normal Reflection of Market Mechanisms According to basic economic principles, spot prices reflect the immediate supply-demand relationship and deliverable transaction conditions of the underlying asset, while futures prices reflect market expectations for future supply and demand, including factors such as capital cost and carrying costs. Both follow the principle of "convergence at maturity," meaning that futures prices gradually converge towards spot prices as the contract expiration date approaches. Therefore, during the life of the contract, the difference between spot prices and futures prices, especially with far-month contracts, is a normal phenomenon under the market pricing mechanism. II. Historical Data Proves the Rationality of the Price Spread Structure To objectively present the facts, SMM has made a price spread analysis chart based on publicly available market data: The chart clearly shows that from September 2023 to 2025, the monthly price spread between the SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate average price and the GFEX lithium carbonate futures contract prices fluctuated between positive and negative territory, always remaining within a reasonable range, and exhibited a significant convergence trend as the contract expiration date approached. This fully aligns with the market rule of futures and spot price convergence. Comparing a certain periods' futures prices (especially those of far-month most-traded contracts) with spot assessment prices and concluding that there is a "consistent significant deviation" is fundamentally flawed in methodology and can easily mislead market judgment. Any behavior that selectively highlights short-term trends in the price spread without considering the broader context is partial and irresponsible, failing to reflect the overall market situation. III. Recent Market Risk Control Measures Recently, to maintain the stable operation of the lithium carbonate futures market and prevent potential risks, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, in accordance with its risk management rules, issued multiple notifications consecutively between November and December 2025, implementing a series of risk control measures for relevant contracts, including adjustments to transaction fee standards and trading limits. These measures represent the exchange's commitment to fulfill its self-regulatory duties in accordance with the law during specific market periods, aiming to promote the steady development of the market. IV. The Emergence, Nature, and Harm of False Information It is noteworthy that during this sensitive period, when the aforementioned risk control measures were being intensively implemented, a significant amount of false information began circulating on the Internet. While such information varies in content, it shares an identical core narrative: False claims have been made that SMM’s prices "consistently and significantly deviate from fair value and futures prices" and that "there are illegal benefit-related connections with certain institutions". These claims are entirely groundless. The timing and manner of their dissemination indicate that their purpose is not professional discussion but rather an attempt to exert improper pressure on SMM by confusing the price logic of spot and futures markets, interfere with the neutrality of spot price assessments, and consequently potentially mislead market expectations and disrupt the normal relationship between futures and spot prices. SMM hereby solemnly declares that SMM is always committed to price discovery in the spot market, does not participate in any futures market trading operations, and resolutely maintains market order. V. The Compliance, Neutrality, and Supervision Mechanisms of SMM's Price Assessment As a professional market price assessment agency, SMM always adheres to the principles of neutrality, objectivity, and fairness. SMM's price assessment methodology strictly follows the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) "Principles for Financial Benchmarks" and is subject to audits by independent third-party audit firms. In terms of internal governance, SMM has established a comprehensive firewall system to ensure that personnel and management involved in the price assessment process do not hold any related futures or spot positions, thereby eliminating conflicts of interest at an institutional level. SMM also has no history of any penalties from securities regulatory authorities for violations. We consistently maintain an open attitude towards market supervision based on facts. VI. Appeal to the Public SMM strongly condemns the recent malicious fabrication and dissemination of false information in the market, which damages SMM's commercial reputation and attempts to disrupt the order of the futures and spot markets, and has initiated legal proceedings to protect its rights. Currently, SMM is comprehensively and continuously collecting and preserving evidence related to the infringements. For suspected infringing acts, the Company will take all legal measures, including but not limited to reporting to relevant regulatory authorities and filing complaints with relevant online platforms, to resolutely pursue the legal liability of the infringing parties. SMM reserves the right to pursue all legal consequences against the relevant responsible parties. We once again call on all market participants to enhance their legal awareness and professional discernment capabilities, obtain information from authoritative channels, analyze the market rationally, resolutely resist and refuse to spread any unverified and unfounded rumors, and jointly maintain a fair, orderly, and healthy development environment for the industry chain. SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. Dec 26, 2025
Dec 26, 2025 17:30To better serve industrial clients and more closely align with the market, SMM has added a weekly price for Vietnam 8mm copper cathode rod (CIF) processing fees, which will be officially launched on the SMM website (smm.cn) on December 19, 2025. 1. SMM 8mm Copper Cathode Rod Premium, CIF Vietnam, USD/tonne Methodology 1.1 SMM Price Assessment Methodology General Provisions Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) is a fully independent third-party service organization that does not participate in any actual transactions. Instead, it maintains close communication with buyers or sellers in the market as an observer or organizer and provides relevant services to the market. SMM continuously develops, reviews, and revises its methodology through communication with industry professionals, adopting the most common product specifications, trade terms, and trade conditions in the industry. Equal importance is given to normal transactions that meet the standard specifications. SMM reserves the right to exclude any price information deemed less reliable or unrepresentative from its price assessments. SMM publishes daily spot metal prices (or price indices, including those for the Chinese market, markets outside China, and global markets), commonly referred to as SMM prices. For each published SMM price, a corresponding methodology is established (all of which are available for reference on SMM’s official website, www.smm.cn). The methodology specifies the methods and procedures for generating and publishing SMM prices, and SMM strictly adheres to these guidelines when producing and releasing SMM prices. To align with the actual conditions of the spot market, SMM will make necessary revisions to the SMM price assessment methodology and announce these revisions on the official website www.smm.cn 28 days before their formal implementation. If you have any questions or suggestions regarding SMM prices or the methodology, please contact SMM customer service (contact information can be found on the official website www.smm.cn ). This document specifies the standards for formulating the weekly RC for 8mm Copper Cathode Rod Premium, CIF Vietnam, USD/tonne. The purpose of establishing this standard by SMM is to create a transparent and verifiable mechanism for SMM price formation. The SMM Benchmark Management Committee also regularly reviews the methodology and its assessment and publication processes. This committee oversees SMM’s methodology and compilation procedures, ensuring that the prices or indices accurately reflect the objective conditions of the physical spot market for the relevant commodities. If the committee identifies any issues, it will promptly highlight them and propose external consultation and revisions to the ongoing methodology or processes, thereby improving the quality of SMM’s published prices or indices. The committee may only propose modifications to the methodology and procedures used for future price or index assessments it cannot alter already published prices or indices. 2. Formation of Processing Fees for 8mm Copper Cathode Rod Premium, CIF Vietnam, USD/tonne. 2.1 Significance of the Price Assessment Against the backdrop of global economic integration, Vietnam is emerging as a significant driver of economic growth in Southeast Asia. On one hand, the accelerated investment in power infrastructure expansion, along with the increase in power transmission line and substation projects, has led to a surge in demand for copper rod as a core raw material. On the other hand, industrial upgrades are driving the rapid development of the electronics manufacturing sector, with numerous component and home appliance enterprises establishing operations, leading to a continuous expansion in demand for high-precision 8mm copper rod, and overall market demand is steadily rising. Under the Belt and Road cooperation framework, economic and trade ties between China and Vietnam are becoming increasingly close. Logistics channels such as cross-border railways and highways are continuously being optimized, making transportation more efficient. The implementation of policies such as tariff reductions further lowers trade costs and improves efficiency, laying a solid foundation for the expansion of the China-Vietnam copper rod trade scale. In light of this, SMM will officially launch the weekly price assessment for 8mm Copper Cathode Rod Premium, CIF Vietnam, USD/tonne starting December 19, 2025. SMM price members will be able to simultaneously access historical prices from that date. 2.2 SMM 8mm Copper Cathode Rod Premium, CIF Vietnam, USD/tonne Price Assessment Methodology 2.2.1 Product Specifications and Standards Product standards are BS EN 1997:2013 Copper and copper alloys. Copper drawing stock (wire rod)、ASTM B49-20 Standard Specification for Copper Rod for Electrical Purposes, product specifications are 8mm copper cathode rod (T1, T2), oxygen content greater than 20ppm. 2.2.2 Price Terms CIF Vietnam, Copper Cathode Rod Premium top on LME CSP, QP M+1(M stands for arrival month) 2.2.3 Payment Terms Cash, other terms normalized. Reference is made to major international payment methods (including D/P, D/A, T/T, etc.). If transactions significantly deviate from this standard, SMM will consider excluding individual samples based on trade volume. For deferred payments or letters of credit, SMM will adjust them according to the prevailing interest rate at the time to align with this standard. 2.2.4 Delivery Time Within 4 weeks. 2.2.5 Reference Transaction Volume Min 200 tones. 2.2.6 Delivery Location Main Ports of Vietnam 2.2.7 Price Release Time Every Friday at 11:30 AM Vietnam Time (except on Chinese statutory holidays and weekends). 2.2.8 Processing Fee Format Reported processing fees are provided as a range, indicating the lowest and highest prices. For example: 8mm Copper Cathode Rod Premium, CIF Vietnam, USD/tonne range $250-270/tonne, average: $260/tonne. 2.2.9 Price Collection Methodology SMM will, in accordance with the price collection confirmation agreement, have price analysts regularly collect price information from copper foil industry price contacts via phone, QQ, WeChat, fax, and email. This price information includes concluded transaction prices, the enterprise's expected most likely pending transaction prices, etc. All instant messaging content, email communications, and any records of face-to-face communications will be archived details of phone communications will be recorded and entered into the database. SMM analysts must comply with the Compliance System when reporting any forced or threatened communications from market participants, or any induced offers attempting to influence the assessment. Once published, SMM will not revise or adjust the price on the same day. 2.2.10 Standardization of Data Although SMM has standardized definitions for our prices, diversity exists in market transactions. The price of each transaction is influenced by numerous factors, including order size, brand of goods, delivery time, payment terms, etc. SMM will comprehensively consider market offers, bids, and transaction information, aligning them with our standards. Each price datum will be electronically recorded or accompanied by written records. All electronic and paper records must be archived by price collection personnel and retained long-term (at least 5 years) in secure network and physical environments. For details, please refer to the SMM Data Retention Policy. 2.2.11 Price Assessment Process The specific process is as follows: 2.3 Methodology Changes All markets change, and SMM has a responsibility to ensure that the methodology for market reports evolves with the market. Therefore, SMM will regularly conduct internal reviews of the methodology's appropriateness based on industry feedback. For all substantive but non-urgent potential modifications, SMM will follow a formal external consultation process. Major changes will then be announced with a notice period of at least 28 days, inviting industry comments, unless special circumstances, particularly force majeure (natural disasters, war, exchange bankruptcy, etc.), necessitate a shorter notice period. SMM is committed to carefully considering all comments on proposed methodology changes, but in some cases, it may be necessary to proceed with changes contrary to the wishes of some market participants. Additionally, SMM has a formal methodology consultation process. SMM commits to holding a formal consultation on the methodology every three years. The date of the last consultation and the deadline for the next consultation committed by SMM are located at the top of the methodology document. 2.4 Compliance with SMM Policies All relevant SMM employees must not only comply with the methodology published by SMM but also adhere to SMM's internal standards and policies. These include: SMM Conflict of Interest Policy, SMM Whistleblower Policy, SMM Error Correction Policy, SMM Methodology Review Consultation and Change Policy, SMM Complaints Policy, etc. Welcome more relevant enterprises in the industry chain to participate and support SMM in better serving related enterprises in the Copper Cathode Rod industry chain. For inquiries, please contact: Shanghai Metals Market Copper Research Team, Xinyang Wang Contact: 021-20707846, +86 15762822325
PriceDec 11, 2025 15:29