[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Minutes: Polysilicon Prices Temporarily Stable, Module Prices Drop] Over the weekend, polysilicon N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 32.7-35.5 yuan/kg. Market order signing was limited, and prices remained temporarily stable over the weekend. After the exhibition, no new orders were signed, and the market is watching for subsequent policy developments.

[Geopolitical Risks and Accelerating Destocking Drive SHFE Aluminum Volatile Adjustment] The Middle East geopolitical situation remains volatile, market wait-and-see sentiment is expected to persist, the ex-China supply gap is expected to provide strong bottom support for aluminum prices, US Fed interest rate hikes remain uncertain, and rising energy cost expectations also form a bullish driver for aluminum prices; but high inventory pressure in China remains relatively prominent, which is expected to limit the upside room of domestic aluminum prices, with short-term domestic aluminum prices expected to mainly see volatile adjustment.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Tug-of-War Between Longs and Shorts Intensifies, Aluminum Alloy to Remain Sideways in Short Term] In the short term, ADC12 prices have limited downside room, and upside breakouts also lack effective demand-side cooperation. The overall trend is expected to be generally stable with slight rise.

This week, ferrous metals diverged, with coking coal and coke extending their strength, iron ore making some concessions, and finished steel moving sideways. Early in the week, rumors about coal mine safety inspections continued to swirl, and expectations of supply tightness intensified, driving coking coal to its daily limit up. Against weak supply-demand fundamentals, iron ore took a path of conceding to coking coal and coke, while finished steel edged higher in a narrow range; later in the week, data on the five major steel products were released, with HRC inventory destocking continuing, the off-season effect on construction steel demand emerging, inventory destocking narrowing, and overall inventory pressure for finished steel also beginning to slowly accumulate......

[HRC] HRC export prices remained stable day on day today, with transaction prices at 496-504 USD/tonne. A major mill in north China reported that its transaction price fell by more than 5-10 USD/tonne WoW this week, and its prices remained higher than other resources, at around 515 USD/tonne. The presence of tax-exclusive prices in the market has made it more difficult for some regular traders to close deals. It is learned that tax-exclusive prices are even 10 USD/tonne lower than the market’s lowest tax-inclusive prices. [Rebar] Rebar export FOB quotations remained stable today, with transaction prices mostly concentrated at 492-495 USD/tonne. Shipments are mostly scheduled for August, and some steel mills have full order books, with deliveries already scheduled from September to October. According to feedback from some market traders, recent inquiries for wire rod have been moderate, overseas buyers remain cautious and on the sidelines, and their psychological price levels are generally lower than current offers. [Steel Billet] The export transaction price for steel billet was 473-475 USD/tonne today, holding steady day on day. Recently, offers from steel mills in north China were at around 478 USD/tonne, but it is reported that deals cannot be reached for high-priced resources. Currently, most shipments are scheduled for August, with a few in September. It is learned that a few mills in east China have maintenance plans in June and will continue to control their order intake in the short term. In addition, some mills in north China have recently taken new rebar orders, so they are temporarily reducing the volume of steel billet available for ordering.

This week, cold-rolled and hot-rolled prices weakened, with overall transactions turning weaker WoW. Supply side, rolling line maintenance decreased WoW this week, reducing the impact on output, and HRC production showed an increase overall. Demand side, apparent demand edged up slightly WoW this week. Inventory side, this week, SMM’s tally of HRC social inventory across 86 warehouses nationwide stood at 4.3519 million mt, down 114,500 mt WoW, or a decline of 2.56%. By region, inventory in South China and Northeast China saw slight accumulation, while North China, East China, and Central and West China continued destocking. Cost side, coking coal and coke futures trended strongly this week. The fifth round of coke price increases was implemented, and hot metal output rebounded, supporting iron ore prices. HRC cost support was strong. Looking ahead, expectations for a sixth round of coke price increases remain, and according to SMM, hot metal output is still expected to rise further, providing demand support for iron ore. Overall, the cost side still offers support. From the perspective of HRC fundamentals, the current supply-demand imbalance has not yet accumulated to drag on prices. However, considering that downstream buyers mainly purchase as needed during the off-season, demand is unlikely to see a significant surge, capping price increases. Next week, HRC prices are expected to remain range-bound, with the most-traded HRC contract trading in the 3,340-3,420 range.