The EU will hold an emergency meeting on the 23rd to reassess its 2025 trade agreement with the US. This follows the US Supreme Court ruling Trump's sweeping tariffs illegal, prompting him to invoke the Trade Act of 1974 to impose a temporary 15% tariff on global goods. The Chair of the European Parliament's Committee on International Trade stated that due to the "chaos" triggered by the US tariff policies, he will propose suspending the ratification of the trade agreement.

On the macro side, the US-EU trade agreement boosted the US dollar and risk sentiment. Meanwhile, Trump continued to pressure Fed Chairman Powell to lower borrowing costs, but the market generally expected the US Fed to maintain interest rates unchanged, which was bearish for copper prices, and LME copper closed slightly lower. On the supply side, domestic and imported copper arrived over the weekend, and there would still be domestic supply this week. Additionally, suppliers had a need to sell copper for cash at month-end, resulting in an overall loose supply situation. On the demand side, as copper prices fell during the day, downstream procurement sentiment slightly improved. On the inventory side, as of July 28, copper inventories in major regions across China monitored by SMM rose by 6,100 mt from last Thursday to 120,300 mt. Total inventories were 230,900 mt lower than the 351,200 mt in the same period last year, and the overall inventory level remained relatively low. On the price side, the market was currently waiting for news of the US reaching trade agreements with multiple countries, and it was expected that copper prices would fluctuate rangebound before that.

According to SMM, as the July 9 tariff deadline approaches, EU-US trade negotiations have entered a critical sprint phase. An EU Commission spokesperson stated on Monday that progress had been made in the trade agreement talks between the EU and the US, which have now reached the "beginning of the final stage," with at least a principled agreement expected. Earlier reports from CCTV indicated that US President Trump had threatened to impose 50% tariffs on EU goods if no breakthrough was achieved in the trade talks by July 9. Currently, the US imposes 50% tariffs on EU steel and aluminum products, 25% on the automotive sector, and a 10% baseline tariff on nearly all other goods.

[Summary of Morning Meeting on June 6] Domestically, nickel ore prices in the Philippines remain relatively firm, imposing a significant cost burden on smelters. Driven by the resumption of production at a smelter in North China after the completion of maintenance, production has seen a slight increase. In Indonesia, the premium for saprolite ore in the domestic trade remains relatively firm, with the HPM declining only slightly. Smelters enjoy strong cost support from nickel ore. The struggle of finished product prices to rise has led to a situation where mainstream smelters are still operating at a loss. However, due to the weak incentive to produce high-grade nickel matte, the overall decline in production is expected to be relatively limited.

[Tariff Summary] ① The Canada-US agreement may be reached next week. Canadian Prime Minister: If negotiations fail, Canada is prepared to take retaliatory measures against the US; ② EU trade official: Negotiations with the US are steadily progressing in the right direction; ③ UK Prime Minister: Very confident that US tariffs can be reduced in a very short period of time; ④ US Secretary of Commerce: Analysis will be completed and tariff standards for aircraft parts will be formulated before month-end; will not mutually eliminate tariffs and barriers with Vietnam; ⑤ Mexico will announce measures to respond to US steel and aluminum tariffs next week.

SMM Nickel News on June 5: Macro News: (1) Tariffs - ① It is rumored that the US-Canada agreement may be reached next week. Canadian Prime Minister: If negotiations fail, Canada is prepared to take retaliatory measures against the US. ② EU trade official: Negotiations with the US are progressing steadily in the right direction. ③ UK Prime Minister: Very confident that US tariffs can be reduced in a very short time. ④ US Secretary of Commerce: Analysis and formulation of tariff standards for aircraft parts will be completed by month-end; will not mutually eliminate tariffs and barriers with Vietnam. ⑤ Mexico will announce measures to respond to US steel and aluminum tariffs next week. (2) US economic data - ① ADP employment in May increased by 37,000, far below the expected 110,000 and the previous value of 62,000. ② The US ISM non-manufacturing index for May fell to 49.9, contracting for the first time in nearly a year, with expectations of an increase from 51.6 to 52. Spot Market: Today, the SMM 1# refined nickel price is 121,700-124,500 yuan/mt, with an average price of 123,100 yuan/mt, a decrease of 375 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The quotation range for spot premiums of Jinchuan #1 refined nickel is 2,300-2,600 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 2,450 yuan/mt, a decrease of 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The quotation range for premiums and discounts of Russian nickel is 100-600 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 350 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. Trading in the spot market has been relatively sluggish recently. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (NI2507) opened lower and weakened during the night session, fluctuating downward during the day session. As of 11:30, the closing price was 121,620 yuan/mt, down 0.38%. In the medium and long term, the global nickel overcapacity issue remains unresolved, with the nickel market under triple pressure of "high supply, weak demand, and tight funds." In the short term, the bottom of the fluctuation range is seen at 118,000 yuan/mt, with the top under pressure at 123,000 yuan/mt.