Following the start of the definitive phase of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in 2026, differences in country-specific default values , default production routes and corresponding benchmarks have begun to translate into significantly different theoretical certificate exposures for unwrought aluminium. SMM analysed EU-27 imports of unwrought aluminium under HS/CN 7601 from non-EU origins and matched the trade data with the 2026 default value, default production route and CBAM benchmark assigned to each origin. The theoretical unit certificate exposure in this analysis is calculated as: 2026 theoretical unit certificate exposure = 2026 default value − benchmark × 97.5% × cross-sectoral correction factor The cross-sectoral correction factor, or CSCF, is provisionally assumed to be 1. The calculation does not deduct any qualifying carbon price effectively paid in the country of origin. The results therefore indicate the relative CBAM exposure of different origins under the default-value scenario. They do not represent the final number of certificates that EU importers will be required to surrender or the final monetary cost. EU-27 unwrought aluminium imports rose 7.0% in 2025 According to SMM calculations, EU-27 imports of unwrought aluminium under HS/CN 7601 from non-EU origins reached approximately 7.63 million tonnes in 2025 , up from 7.13 million tonnes in 2024. This represented an increase of about 502,200 tonnes, or 7.0% year on year . Of the 2025 total, approximately 4.56 million tonnes originated from countries subject to CBAM, accounting for 59.7% of total imports. Imports from CBAM-exempt origins, including Norway, Iceland and Switzerland, amounted to approximately 3.05 million tonnes , representing around 40.0% of the total. A further 25,800 tonnes were recorded without a specified origin and were excluded from the country-level exposure ranking. Applying the 2026 default values and benchmarks to the 2025 trade structure produces an estimated theoretical certificate exposure of approximately 4.09 million tCO₂e for imports from CBAM-covered origins. The trade-weighted average unit exposure was approximately 0.898 tCO₂e per tonne of product . As 2025 remained within the CBAM transitional period, these figures are scenario-based estimates using 2025 trade volumes and the 2026 calculation rules. They do not represent actual certificate obligations for 2025. Primary aluminium route accounted for more than 99% of theoretical exposure The primary aluminium route dominated both CBAM-covered import volumes and theoretical certificate exposure. In 2025, imports assigned to the primary aluminium route totalled approximately 4.46 million tonnes , accounting for 97.8% of imports from CBAM-covered origins. Their theoretical certificate exposure reached approximately 4.06 million tCO₂e , representing 99.3% of the total exposure. The trade-weighted average unit exposure for the primary aluminium route was approximately 0.912 tCO₂e per tonne of product . By comparison, imports assigned to the secondary aluminium route amounted to approximately 99,500 tonnes, or 2.2% of CBAM-covered imports. Their theoretical certificate exposure was approximately 30,600 tCO₂e, with an average unit exposure of around 0.307 tCO₂e per tonne . The gap between the two routes reflects differences in both country default values and the applicable benchmarks. For HS/CN 7601, the benchmark used for the primary aluminium route is 1.423 tCO₂e per tonne , compared with 0.091 tCO₂e per tonne for the secondary aluminium route. This means that, under a default-value declaration scenario, the theoretical CBAM exposure of EU-27 unwrought aluminium imports remains highly concentrated in primary aluminium supply. Mozambique recorded the highest unit exposure, with China also ranking near the top The results show a clear divergence in theoretical unit exposure among origin countries. Mozambique recorded the highest unit exposure among major origins with a country-specific default value, at approximately 2.130 tCO₂e per tonne of product . China followed at approximately 1.913 tCO₂e per tonne , placing it among the origins with the highest default-value-based unit exposure. South Africa recorded an estimated unit exposure of approximately 1.207 tCO₂e per tonne , followed by Russia at 0.989 tCO₂e and Canada at 0.769 tCO₂e. Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, India, the United Kingdom, Egypt and Kazakhstan share similar default values under the primary aluminium route, resulting in unit exposure of approximately 0.670 tCO₂e per tonne . Australia, Brazil, Malaysia, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United States recorded unit exposure of approximately 0.483 tCO₂e per tonne . Origins assigned to the secondary aluminium route generally recorded approximately 0.307 tCO₂e per tonne . A high unit exposure does not necessarily mean that an origin faces the greatest aggregate impact. Total exposure also depends on the volume of trade with the EU-27. China illustrates this distinction. EU-27 imports of HS/CN 7601 products from China reached approximately 12,400 tonnes in 2025 , up 24.3% year on year. This corresponded to theoretical certificate exposure of about 23,700 tCO₂e . China therefore ranked near the top on a unit basis, but its comparatively limited shipment volume to the EU-27 kept its aggregate exposure well below that of Mozambique, Canada and several major Gulf suppliers. Mozambique’s total theoretical exposure reached 1.34 million tCO₂e After incorporating 2025 import volumes, Mozambique emerged as the origin with the highest aggregate theoretical certificate exposure. EU-27 imports from Mozambique reached approximately 628,000 tonnes in 2025 , up 17.5% year on year. Based on unit exposure of 2.130 tCO₂e per tonne, its total theoretical exposure was approximately 1.34 million tCO₂e . Mozambique alone accounted for 32.7% of the theoretical exposure associated with CBAM-covered origins. However, the above total exposure is a static estimate based on 2025 trade volumes. Power supply constraints may limit Mozambique’s aluminium smelting capacity and output in 2026–2027, potentially reducing its exports to the EU. As a result, its actual near-term aggregate CBAM exposure may not reach the theoretical level estimated using 2025 trade volumes. Canada supplied approximately 682,800 tonnes to the EU-27 in 2025. Although its unit exposure was considerably lower than Mozambique’s, its larger trade volume lifted its aggregate theoretical exposure to approximately 524,800 tCO₂e , equivalent to 12.8% of the total. Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Russia and South Africa recorded theoretical total exposures of approximately 350,900 tCO₂e, 329,300 tCO₂e, 322,200 tCO₂e and 263,600 tCO₂e, respectively. Mozambique, Canada, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Russia and South Africa together accounted for approximately 76.4% of total theoretical certificate exposure. Mozambique’s position was driven by the combination of a high unit default-value exposure and substantial trade volume. Canada’s unit exposure was not among the very highest, but its large and rapidly increasing export volume significantly amplified its aggregate impact. Four-quadrant analysis places China in the “high intensity, low trade volume” category A four-quadrant analysis using 2025 EU-27 import volume on the horizontal axis and 2026 theoretical unit certificate exposure on the vertical axis provides a clearer view of the combined influence of carbon intensity and trade scale. The core high-exposure quadrant includes Mozambique, Canada, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Russia, South Africa, India and the United Kingdom. These origins combine comparatively large trade volumes with relatively high unit exposure and are the main contributors to aggregate CBAM exposure for EU-27 unwrought aluminium imports. China is the most prominent origin in the high intensity, low trade volume quadrant . Its theoretical unit exposure of approximately 1.913 tCO₂e per tonne is second only to Mozambique, but its current export volume to the EU-27 remains comparatively limited. Ukraine and South Korea are among the origins in the trade-volume-driven quadrant . Both are assigned to the secondary aluminium route and have relatively low unit exposure, but their larger trade volumes increase their aggregate exposure compared with other secondary-route origins. Vietnam, Morocco, Serbia, Bolivia and Mexico are among the origins in the low-exposure quadrant , reflecting both lower unit exposure and limited trade volumes. For Vietnam, HS/CN 7601 unwrought aluminium is assigned to the secondary aluminium default route, resulting in theoretical unit certificate exposure of approximately 0.307 tCO₂e per tonne in 2026, significantly below that of most origins assigned to the primary aluminium route. EU-27 imports from Vietnam amounted to approximately 7,100 tonnes in 2025, down around 27.1% year on year, corresponding to theoretical total certificate exposure of about 2,200 tCO₂e. Vietnam’s overall CBAM exposure therefore remains relatively limited at present. However, should its exports to the EU expand in the future, access to and verification of actual emissions data will remain an important factor affecting the relative competitiveness of Vietnamese products. The quadrant thresholds are analytical dividing lines based on the median values of CBAM-covered origins with actual trade. They do not represent regulatory thresholds set by the EU. Theoretical exposure reached approximately 642,400 tCO₂e in Q1 2026 In the first quarter of 2026, EU-27 imports of unwrought aluminium under HS/CN 7601 from non-EU origins reached approximately 1.52 million tonnes , with a total import value of around €4.36 billion . The average import value was approximately €2,873 per tonne . Imports from CBAM-covered origins amounted to approximately 782,800 tonnes , accounting for 51.6% of total imports. Imports from CBAM-exempt origins reached around 733,000 tonnes, or 48.4%. Based on the 2026 default values and benchmarks, imports from CBAM-covered origins generated theoretical certificate exposure of approximately 642,400 tCO₂e during the quarter. Mozambique remained the largest contributor, with theoretical exposure of around 150,500 tCO₂e. Canada followed with approximately 86,800 tCO₂e, the United Arab Emirates with 82,100 tCO₂e, Bahrain with 63,400 tCO₂e and South Africa with 56,200 tCO₂e. As the analysis does not include Q1 2025 comparison data, no year-on-year conclusion has been drawn for Q1 2026 import volumes or exposure. The quarterly figures are used primarily to illustrate the origin structure during the initial stage of the definitive CBAM period. Access to and verification of actual emissions data could become an important competitiveness factor Country default values are fallback parameters applied when producers are unable to provide actual emissions data that meet EU requirements. They do not necessarily reflect the actual carbon intensity of a specific producer or shipment. For origins with relatively high default-value exposure, including China, Mozambique, South Africa and Russia, producers whose actual embedded emissions are materially lower than the applicable country default value could reduce the certificate exposure faced by EU importers by establishing robust emissions-monitoring systems and providing complete, verified emissions data. Conversely, where suppliers are unable to provide emissions information that is complete, traceable and compliant with EU requirements, importers may have to rely on the relevant country default value. A higher default value could consequently affect supplier selection, purchase negotiations and long-term contract arrangements. The final number of certificates to be surrendered will also depend on actual embedded emissions, production-route classification, data verification and any qualifying carbon price effectively paid in the country of origin. The actual CBAM cost will additionally depend on the CBAM certificate price, which is linked to EU Emissions Trading System allowance prices. The theoretical certificate exposure calculated in this analysis should therefore not be interpreted directly as either the final certificate obligation or the final CBAM cost. Overall, the impact of CBAM on trade in HS/CN 7601 unwrought aluminium will not be determined by country default values alone. Unit certificate exposure, trade scale, actual emissions and the availability of reliable carbon data will jointly shape the competitive position of different origins and producers in the EU market. As the definitive phase progresses, differences in low-carbon production capability, emissions-data management and verification capacity are likely to become increasingly visible in procurement decisions, export competitiveness and trade flows. Data note: The trade scope covers EU-27 imports of unwrought aluminium under HS/CN 7601 from non-EU origins. CBAM-exempt origins, including Norway, Iceland and Switzerland, are included in total import statistics but excluded from theoretical certificate exposure. Origins without a country-specific default value are assigned the applicable value for “Other Countries and Territories.” Unspecified origins are excluded from the country ranking. Theoretical exposure does not deduct qualifying carbon prices paid in third countries. Source: EU-27 import data, EU CBAM default values and benchmarks; compiled by SMM.

As of July 11, 2026, the direct reduced iron (DRI) plant of Jindal Steel Oman in Sohar operated continuously for 188 days without any unplanned shutdowns. The 6.5-meter shaft furnace set a record for the highest monthly production of 185,710 mt in May 2026, with an average operating rate of 249.6 mt per hour. The facility’s production exceeded its original designed capacity of 1.5 million mt by 33%, establishing a new global benchmark for operational efficiency. The Sohar plant integrates gas-based direct reduction (using reformed natural gas to reduce iron ore) with a 220-mt Danieli electric furnace, where hot DRI is charged directly into the furnace by gravity. Billed as the world’s first gravity-fed hot DRI charging system, it achieves significant energy savings. In early 2026, the EAF side also set records: monthly production of 235,112 mt of liquid steel at a rate of 324 mt/hour, with a charge mix of 61% hot DRI, 37% cold DRI, and 2% hot briquetted iron (HBI), and electricity consumption of 493 kWh per mt of steel. In other words, from reduction to melting, this is a fully integrated DRI-EAF process, and the high stability of the shaft furnace serves as the foundation for the entire chain’s efficiency. Jindal’s record carries weight because it falls within a strengthening megatrend. According to data from Midrex and the World Steel Association, global DRI production reached 140.8 million mt in 2024, setting a new record high, up 3.8% YoY (the previous record was 135.7 million mt in 2023). The cumulative increase since 2019 is approximately 32.7 million mt, an increase of over 30%. More notably, this growth outpaced the mild 1% growth in global crude steel production over the same period. The DRI route is steadily expanding its share in the overall steel landscape. Midrex technology accounted for 54.1% of total production and approximately 80.1% of shaft-furnace DRI output. However, this growth is highly concentrated. In 2024, India ranked first globally with 54.7 million mt, accounting for over one-third of the total. Iran followed with 34.7 million mt, and together the two countries accounted for about 63% of the global total. Next came Russia (8.0 million mt), Saudi Arabia (6.6 million mt), and Egypt (6.4 million mt). The landscape broadly splits into two segments: one is India’s vast domestic demand-driven system based on coal-based rotary kiln sponge iron, and the other is the gas-based DRI cluster in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) built on cheap natural gas. Jindal Steel Oman’s Sohar plant falls into the latter category. This concentration also means that any disruption in natural gas supply, energy policy, or geopolitical turbulence in one location will be magnified to affect global DRI supply. To grasp the strategic value of such plants, one must place them within the carbon intensity framework. According to the representative route values from the World Steel Association, the blast furnace–converter integrated route emits approximately 2.3 mt CO₂ per mt of steel, while the scrap-based electric furnace route records the lowest at around 0.7 mt. The gas-based direct reduction–electric furnace route falls in between, at roughly 1.43 mt. This means that before green hydrogen direct reduction achieves true scale, gas-based DRI represents the most viable low-carbon iron source pathway beyond the blast furnace. It is not zero-carbon, but it can already reduce the carbon footprint to around 60% of the blast furnace route. A gas-based DRI plant like Jindal Shuhar—efficient, low-cost, and running stably—sits right at the sweet spot of this transitional pathway. Placed back into the trade dimension of the ferrous metal industry chain, the Middle East’s gas-based DRI and HBI have long played the role of supplying green iron to Europe, Turkey, and the US. The top five global DRI importers in 2024 were the US (1.5 million mt), Turkey (1.2 million mt), India (900,000 mt), Mexico (800,000 mt), and Italy (700,000 mt). As the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) enters the actual payment phase and embedded carbon costs increase year by year, the premium window for exporting low-carbon iron sources to Europe is opening up. Plants that can spread fixed unit costs thinner and push annualized output to 133% of designed capacity are precisely the most resilient marginal suppliers along this trade flow. Viewed from this angle, Jindal’s 188-day record is not merely a straightforward milestone.

Rising compliance costs, a verification bottleneck, and tightening EU import quotas combine to reshape the competitive landscape for Asian stainless steel suppliers in Europe from 2026 onward. The EU CBAM entered its definitive implementation phase on January 1, 2026 — transitioning from a reporting exercise into a mechanism with real trade cost implications.

The global automotive industry is accelerating its low-carbon and smart transformation. China's automotive industry is shifting from scale advantage to leadership in both technology and supply chain. In 2025, China's new energy vehicle penetration rate exceeded 50%, driving upgrades in automotive materials such as aluminum, steel, and magnesium, and triggering a surge in demand for new lightweight materials. With the implementation of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, low-carbon transformation of the industry chain is imminent. Coinciding with the start of the 15th Five-Year Plan and the deepening of dual carbon goals, the industry urgently needs a professional platform to address material technology challenges. Against this backdrop, will be held on September 10-11, 2026 in Shanghai . SMM together with Shandong Lixin New Materials Co., Ltd. cordially invites industry peers to attend, advancing the automotive supply chain toward green, lightweight, intelligent, and global directions. Click to attend. We look forward to meeting you at the conference. Benefit through Casting Excellence, Trust Wins the Future Shandong Lixin New Materials Co., Ltd. — Collaborative Manufacturing Service Provider for the Entire Aluminum Alloy Industry Chain The industrial park is located in Linyi, Shandong Province, covering an area of 230 mu. It has established a green closed-loop industry chain integrating non-ferrous metal resource recycling, direct supply of molten aluminum, die casting manufacturing, precision machining, and mold development . It provides clients with one-stop comprehensive solutions from material to finished product, widely serving automotive lightweight parts, 5G communication structural components, and high-precision manufacturing sectors. Three Core Strengths Cost Reduction and Efficiency Improvement Achieves a “no-landing” direct supply model for molten aluminum, significantly reducing clients' remelting losses and energy costs, and improving manufacturing efficiency at the source. Full-Stack Capabilities Independently controllable processes from mold development, high-pressure die casting to precision machining, meeting stringent quality and delivery requirements for complex parts. Green and Low-Carbon Full-process internal recycling of non-ferrous metal resources, supporting clients' supply chains in achieving carbon reduction targets and building a sustainable future together. Business Segments Main Products Contact Us SMM Conference Contact Lyu Junlei 176 1601 9596 lvjunlei@smm.cn

Over the past half-century of industrialisation, the global seaborne iron ore market consolidated around a duopoly dominated by Australia's Pilbara region and Brazil's Carajás and Iron Quadrangle districts. However, driven by macroeconomic cycle evolution, a structural shift in China's growth engine, and the steel industry's irreversible push toward low-carbon and green transformation, this traditional supply map is undergoing an unprecedented reshaping. On 26 November 2025, the first commercial vessel loaded with Simandou iron ore departed from the Port of Mabarya, marking the official commissioning of Guinea's Simandou Iron Ore Project — the world's largest undeveloped high-grade greenfield iron ore deposit by reserve. This milestone signals that the African continent, long relegated to secondary status, is progressively emerging as a significant new force in the global ferrous metals market. Africa's iron ore resources are widely regarded as the third-largest iron ore supply region globally, after Brazil's Carajás and Australia's Pilbara. With an estimated 13.8% share of global iron ore resources, and representing the most significant supply-side growth driver over the next five years, shifts in African iron ore dynamics will be a key determinant of international iron ore pricing over the long term. I. Global Iron Ore Market Background According to SMM research data, global iron ore production in 2025 is estimated at approximately 2.472 billion tonnes (bt). Africa contributes roughly 95 million tonnes (Mt), representing close to 4% of global output. As major mining projects progressively come on stream, Africa's iron ore production capacity is forecast to double by 2030, reaching approximately 259 Mt. Assuming no production curtailments elsewhere, Africa's global market share could rise to nearly 10%, while the overall global iron ore supply surplus is projected to widen to approximately 220 Mt. Although the international iron ore market has already entered a prolonged loose supply cycle, the substantive supply shock from African iron ore is expected to materialise gradually over the next five years. In the near term, Africa's estimated incremental shipment of approximately 15 Mt in 2026 — bolstered by its superior high-grade characteristics — is expected to be absorbed relatively smoothly by steelmakers seeking low-carbon blending feedstocks, resulting in a relatively moderate impact on absolute benchmark pricing. The critical inflection point is projected to fall in 2028–2029. As rail and port infrastructure currently under construction in West Africa is fully commissioned, a surge in high-grade iron ore output will exert heavy downward pressure on the right-hand side of the global iron ore cost curve. This will not only systematically compress the iron ore price floor but will trigger intense structural displacement — squeezing the operating margin of low-grade, high-cost producers. The current price downcycle is expected to persist through 2028. When international ore prices breach the USD 90/tonne marginal cost support level, higher-cost non-mainstream small and mid-size mines will be forced into curtailment and exit. The resulting supply shakeout will reshape the global iron ore supply structure into a multi-oligopoly dominated by ultra-large, low-cost operations (including the new African mines), complemented by quality mid-tier producers. II. Africa's Current Market Landscape: South Africa as Dominant Producer, West Africa Expanding Aggressively Building on the global context, this section focuses on Africa's overall iron ore landscape. As the primary driver of supply growth over the next five years, Africa's iron ore production is concentrated in West Africa and South Africa, currently dominated by three key countries. South Africa South Africa is the continent's largest producer, with 2025 output reaching approximately 67 Mt and export shipments maintaining an overwhelming 65% share of total African iron ore exports. However, South Africa's iron ore sector faces structural constraints limiting its organic growth headroom. As other emerging African resource nations commission significant new projects, South Africa's share of total African export volumes is projected to face sustained compression. Mauritania Mauritania is Africa's second-largest iron ore producer, with 2025 output of 15 Mt and export volumes of approximately 12 Mt, representing approximately 12% of the African market. Strategically situated adjacent to the Atlantic Ocean with high-grade iron ore deposits deep within the Sahara Desert, Mauritania possesses highly advantageous geographic and mineralogical characteristics. Its proximity to European and Middle Eastern markets — both in urgent need of green industrial raw materials — provides ideal conditions for the country to become a hub for global green metallurgy capacity relocation. Mauritania is expected to emerge as a highly promising iron ore supply nation going forward. Sierra Leone Sierra Leone is another important regional supply pole, with projected 2025 output also reaching approximately 12 Mt, holding a stable share of approximately 12% in the African export market. Chinese-invested iron ore mines within the country are actively scaling up their operations. Trade Flow Overview Based on full-year 2024 trade data, the proportion of African iron ore shipped to China is relatively low compared to traditional mainstream ore origins, at approximately 60%. The broader Pan-Asian market — encompassing China, Japan, and South Korea — absorbs approximately 70% of total African iron ore shipments. Western European countries, led by the Netherlands and Germany, constitute Africa's core secondary destination, accounting for close to 14% of trade flows. The remaining marginal trade flows are broadly diversified, extending to emerging steelmaking capacity clusters in the Middle East, including Bahrain, Oman, and Saudi Arabia. Key Corporate Players At the corporate level, South Africa's Kumba Iron Ore and Assmang rank as Africa's largest and second-largest iron ore producers, with annual output of approximately 37 Mt and 17 Mt respectively. Kumba Iron Ore: Kumba's mining operations — including the Sishen mine — are globally recognised for producing high-grade fines (Fe >62%) and metallurgically superior premium lump ore (Fe 65.2%). Under the prevailing trend of blast furnace (BF) emission reduction, this type of direct-charge lump ore — which reduces sintering-related carbon emissions — commands strong market demand and a substantial price premium. Assmang: Assmang similarly holds high-quality iron ore assets, operated as a 50:50 joint venture between African Rainbow Minerals (ARM) and Assore. Its Assmang Fines and Assmang Lump products (Fe 64–65%) are also direct-charge, high-quality materials. However, the company's key bottleneck lies not at the pithead but on the rail. Heavy dependence on Transnet Freight Rail (TFR) for haulage means logistics constraints frequently cap its achievable shipment volumes. SNIM (Société Nationale Industrielle et Minière): Mauritania's state-owned mining company is Africa's third-largest iron ore producer after the two South African majors. Unlike mainstream Australian and Brazilian ores, SNIM products occupy a distinctive niche in terms of physicochemical specifications and market segment. Its most widely traded product, TZFC fines, is characterised by extremely low alumina (Al2O3) and phosphorus (P) content. As an excellent blending ore, major steelmakers regularly blend SNIM fines with high-alumina Australian fines (such as certain Pilbara blend products) to significantly dilute the impurity ratio in the burden, thereby optimising blast furnace performance metrics. III. Africa's Market Transformation: Major Producers Facing Stagnation; Emerging Projects as Primary Growth Drivers Where does future growth lie? According to SMM observations, Africa is expected to undergo a significant structural transformation within the next five years. Multiple large-scale iron ore projects across the continent are currently under construction, with scheduled commissioning prior to 2030. Based on our modelling, African iron ore supply is forecast to grow substantially from the current approximately 95 Mt to 260 Mt over five years — a cumulative increase of 85%. The market structure is also expected to shift from South Africa-dominated Western-oriented exports to a Guinea-led export paradigm. Guinea — Simandou Iron Ore Project The primary growth driver will be Guinea's renowned Simandou iron ore project, jointly developed by multiple entities and representing the world's largest undeveloped high-grade open-pit hematite deposit. The project holds reserves in excess of 5 billion tonnes (bt) and a designed production capacity of 120 Mt per annum, making it the project with the greatest strategic potential to reshape the existing iron ore market structure. Since first ore shipments in late November 2025, cumulative exports from the principal export hub — the Port of Mabarya — reached approximately 1.6 Mt through Q1 2026. Blocks 1 & 2, developed under the Winning Consortium Simandou (WCS), have successfully commenced production, with 2026 capacity expected to reach nameplate and ramp-up to 60 Mt per annum projected over the next two to three years. Blocks 3 & 4, led by Simfer (a Rio Tinto and Baowu joint venture), are forecast to commission in Q1 2026, with estimated 2026 shipments of 5 Mt and a 30-month ramp-up timeline to reach 60 Mt per annum. In aggregate, Guinea is projected to achieve 120 Mt per annum before 2030, becoming the world's second-largest single iron ore project by capacity — second only to Vale's S11D project in Brazil (designed capacity of 200 Mt post-expansion, expected by 2030). Other African Countries — Key Development Projects Other nations — including Liberia, Gabon, Sierra Leone, and the Republic of Congo — all have iron ore projects under development. Projects scheduled for commissioning before 2030 account for a combined planned capacity of approximately 46 Mt. The largest single project is ArcelorMittal Liberia's (AML) Tokadeh Phase II, expected to commission in H2 2026 and reach a nameplate capacity of 20 Mt per annum by year-end, producing iron ore concentrate with an estimated grade exceeding Fe 66%. Given that AML's European steelmaking capacity cannot absorb such a large volume increment in the near term, the majority of Tokadeh's output is expected to enter the international seaborne market, exerting pricing pressure on the iron ore concentrate segment. South Africa — Structural Constraints on Production Growth South Africa's output is expected to remain broadly stable in the 63–67 Mt range, with mild downside risk. The primary underlying cause is the country's heavy dependence on the heavy-haul Sishen–Saldanha Bay rail corridor, operated by Transnet Freight Rail (TFR). In recent years, TFR has suffered a severe reduction in effective haulage capacity due to locomotive fleet shortages, frequent cable theft incidents, and chronic infrastructure underinvestment, materially constraining the rail transport of major bulk commodities including iron ore and coal. In its FY2025 annual results published in February 2026, Kumba Iron Ore — South Africa's dominant iron ore producer — reported total finished goods inventory of 7.5 Mt, up from 6.9 Mt at end-2024. With rail haulage capacity unable to match mine production, South Africa's major iron ore producers have been compelled to stockpile large volumes at mine sites. To avoid inventory saturation, miners have been forced to proactively revise production guidance downward. While producers are actively addressing haulage constraints, the deeply entrenched structural issues on the rail network are unlikely to be resolved in the short term. Mauritania — SNIM Long-Term Strategic Growth Blueprint Post-2030, attention turns to SNIM's strategic growth roadmap. Under its Horizon 1 programme, the company plans to raise annual production capacity to 45 Mt by 2031, through the implementation of lean manufacturing practices, equipment and technology upgrades, and the co-development of new mineral reserves. Of this total, 20 Mt will be produced under SNIM's wholly owned capacity, while the remaining 25 Mt will be realised through joint ventures with international capital partners. SNIM has further set a long-term target to expand annual capacity to 80 Mt by 2045 under its Horizon 3 plan. Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) — MIFOR (Grand Est Iron Ore Project) On 26 March 2026, the DRC and China signed a Memorandum of Understanding designating the MIFOR project as a priority flagship initiative. The deposit is estimated to hold cumulative resources of 15–20 bt, with an average grade exceeding Fe 60% — a potential scale approximately 2.5 times that of Guinea's Simandou. Phase I capital expenditure is estimated at USD 28.9 billion, encompassing the construction of a heavy-haul railway and the utilisation of Congo River navigation, ultimately linking to a deep-water port at Banana on the Atlantic coast. Phase I design capacity stands at 50 Mt per annum, with a long-term target of scaling to 300 Mt per annum. These projects collectively underscore Africa's inevitable emergence as an indispensable iron ore supply source for the global steel industry. IV. Global Steel Industry Chain Transformation: Can Africa, as a Hub for High-Grade Ore, Enable DRI Production? High-Grade Ore as a DRI Feedstock Advantage Notably, the majority of Africa's current and planned iron ore projects produce ore at average total iron (Fe) grades predominantly above 65%, with extremely low impurity content. This scarce, high-grade ore is the ideal feedstock for the Direct Reduced Iron (DRI) process. As the DRI-Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) green steel route gains traction across Europe, the Americas, and China, demand for iron ore at Fe 65% and above will grow exponentially on the demand side. This will confer a substantial 'grade premium' on major projects, including South Africa's Kumba, Guinea's Simandou, and other future African producers. Over the longer term, iron ore pricing benchmarks are inexorably shifting away from the traditional Platts 62% Fe index, and African ore producers will gain bargaining leverage when renewing long-term supply agreements, thereby reshaping the global industry chain profit distribution structure. DRI Investment Pipeline in Africa In alignment with global carbon neutrality objectives, international investors — encouraged by local governments — are actively deploying capital into high value-added downstream processing facilities, including DRI plants and high-grade pellet facilities, aimed at leveraging Africa's abundant high-grade iron ore resources and vast renewable energy potential for DRI production. According to SMM observations, Africa is projected to add approximately 20 Mt of DRI capacity by 2030. The largest single project is a Libyan integrated DRI complex, jointly developed by Turkish steelmaker Tosyali and the Libyan National Steel Company, with a total design capacity of 8.1 Mt. China's Decarbonisation Push and the Global Green Steel Transition As China advances its dual carbon targets — carbon peaking by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060 — the domestic steelmaking sector is undergoing significant adjustment. The traditional carbon-intensive Blast Furnace–Basic Oxygen Furnace (BF-BOF) long route faces increasingly stringent capacity replacement policies and environmental regulations. Simultaneously, the global trade system is accelerating the imposition of carbon costs, most notably through the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), compelling global steel supply chains to accelerate the transition from the source toward a low-carbon, ultimately zero-carbon 'green steel' era. In the context of this irreversible transition, the DRI-EAF short-route process has become the most commercially viable decarbonisation pathway. To meet surging global demand for green steel, market projections indicate that global DRI designed production capacity will need to expand by hundreds of millions of tonnes during the 2030s. This scale of expansion will profoundly alter the global steel supply structure: the share of traditional hot metal (pig iron) production will progressively decline, while low-carbon DRI supply will directly determine the competitiveness of major economies in the global green steel market. In particular, 'hydrogen metallurgy' — using green hydrogen to replace natural gas and coking coal as the reductant in iron ore reduction — is widely recognised by the industry as the core technology for achieving ultimate zero-carbon steelmaking. Africa as the Future 'Green Iron' Production Hub Represented by world-class high-grade iron ore projects such as Guinea's Simandou, the progressive commissioning of these mega-mines is expected to inject over 100 Mt of high-grade iron ore per year into the global market, substantially alleviating the global scarcity of DRI-grade ore. More critically, North Africa and West Africa possess world-leading solar and wind energy potential, enabling large-scale, low-cost green hydrogen production in situ. This perfect combination of 'high-grade ore + low-cost green hydrogen' is increasingly inclinng multinational capital and steel majors toward establishing DRI production lines directly on African soil — reducing iron ore to low-carbon Hot Briquetted Iron (HBI) on-site for ocean transport to EAF facilities in Asia and Europe. Africa is thus formally transitioning from its historical role as a raw material exporter to become an indispensable link in the green iron production chain of the future.

ArcelorMittal (AM) — 2025 Annual Report Summary ArcelorMittal, the world's second-largest steel producer, released its 2025 Annual Report in March 2026. During the year, the Group's steelmaking operations experienced a broad-based slowdown: crude steel output in Europe contracted sharply by 6.6% year-on-year, while volumes in India and Brazil also declined. Only North America recorded output growth, driven by the consolidation of an additional steelworks. These dynamics reflect softening apparent steel consumption (ASC) globally, compounded by intensifying competitive pressures. Nonetheless, the Mining segment delivered an outstanding performance — iron ore shipments from Liberia surged 37.5%, providing a meaningful offset to the headwinds in the steelmaking divisions. I. 2025 Key Production, Shipment & Financial Overview In 2025, ArcelorMittal demonstrated strong operational resilience against the backdrop of subdued global steel demand and complex trade barriers. Portfolio optimisation — notably the full consolidation of the Calvert flat-rolled finishing facility — and robust growth in the iron ore business were the key highlights of the year. Despite a marginal decline in crude steel production and shipments, net profit expanded materially, primarily driven by non-recurring items — in particular, a US$1.9 billion accounting gain arising from the acquisition of the remaining 50% equity interest in AMNS Calvert. The increase in net debt was principally attributable to the full consolidation of Calvert and other M&A activities. II. Segment Distribution & Operational Performance In 2025, ArcelorMittal's global operational footprint underwent significant structural reconfiguration, most notably through the full acquisition of the North American Calvert flat-rolling facility and the divestiture of non-core assets in Bosnia-Herzegovina, further optimising the Group's production and shipment mix. The following presents a detailed comparison of key segment production and shipment data for 2025 versus the prior year: North America The segment recorded growth in both output and shipments in 2025, primarily benefiting from the full consolidation of the AMNS Calvert facility in the second half of the year, and the recovery of Mexican production following the 2024 labour strike. Crude Steel Production: 7.8 Mt (2024: 7.5 Mt), up 2.9% YoY Steel Shipments: 10.3 Mt (2024: 10.1 Mt), up 2.2% YoY Key Development: The 1.5 Mtpa Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) at the Calvert facility was commissioned in June 2025, enhancing the supply capability of high value-added flat products in the region. 2026 Volume Outlook: Both production and shipments are expected to increase in line with broader regional trends. Growth Driver: The 1.5 Mtpa EAF at Calvert, consolidated in H2 2025, is currently in capacity ramp-up phase and will contribute incremental volumes in 2026. Brazil Despite margin pressure, the Brazil segment maintained highly stable production and shipment volumes, continuing to serve as a key profitability pillar for the Group. Crude Steel Production: 14.3 Mt (2024: 14.5 Mt), down 1.3% YoY Steel Shipments: 13.9 Mt (2024: 14.1 Mt), down 0.9% YoY Key Development: The Barra Mansa long products mill expansion was commissioned in H2 2025, adding 0.4 Mtpa of high value-added long steel capacity. 2026 Volume Outlook: Steel shipments are projected to reach 15.4 Mt in 2026, significantly above the 13.95 Mt recorded in 2025. Growth Driver: Despite demand headwinds in 2025 caused by elevated interest rates and a surge in Chinese imports, the Group holds an optimistic outlook for 2026 growth. Europe Affected by soft market demand and a planned major reline of Blast Furnace No. 4 at Dunkirk, European crude steel output contracted. However, the smaller decline in shipments indicates relatively resilient market penetration. Crude Steel Production: 29.2 Mt (2024: 31.2 Mt), down 6.6% YoY Steel Shipments: 28.4 Mt (2024: 28.7 Mt), down 0.9% YoY Key Development: The divestiture of the Zenica long products integrated steelworks in Bosnia-Herzegovina was completed in October, reflecting the Group's strategic transition toward lower-carbon assets. 2026 Volume Outlook: Shipments are expected to recover and grow. Growth Driver: As the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and the revised Tariff Rate Quota (TRQ) regime progressively take effect in 2026, the Group anticipates European domestic steelmakers recapturing market share from import competition. India & Other Joint Ventures Focus on the strategic joint venture AMNS India (60% equity interest): Crude Steel Production: 7.2 Mt (2024: 7.5 Mt), down 4.5% YoY, impacted by market volatility in H1 and unplanned maintenance outages Steel Shipments: 7.9 Mt (2024: 7.9 Mt), shipments remained resilient Key Development: The Hazira integrated steelworks in India is being expanded to 15 Mtpa capacity. The Group has also announced a long-term greenfield project in Andhra Pradesh with an 8.2 Mtpa capacity target, with the objective of increasing hot-rolled coil (HRC) capacity to 15 Mtpa by H2 2026, providing incremental production and shipment uplift. Crude Steel Production (Other Subsidiaries): 4.3 Mt (2024: 4.6 Mt), down 6.52% YoY Mining The Mining segment was the Group's strongest growth engine in 2025, driven by the successful ramp-up of the Phase II expansion project in Liberia. Own Iron Ore Production (Mining segment only): 35.3 Mt (2024: 27.9 Mt), up 26.5% YoY Iron Ore Shipments: 36.3 Mt (2024: 26.4 Mt), up 37.5% YoY Key Development: Liberia achieved a record annual shipment of 10 Mt and is progressing steadily toward a 20 Mtpa production target. 2026 Mining Segment Outlook: Liberia (AML): Volume Target: 20 Mtpa shipment target. The Group specifically projects that by end-2026, as the Phase II expansion and the beneficiation plant continue to ramp up, annualised shipments will exceed 18 Mtpa (vs. 10 Mt in 2025). Key Progress: A blended production model combining sinter fines and concentrates from Phase II will support a significant increase in production and shipment volumes, with rail haulage capacity being expanded toward a 30 Mtpa annual throughput target. Canada (AMMC): Trend: Stable production maintained. The conversion of the high-grade iron ore pellet plant for Direct Reduced Iron (DRI) production is expected to be completed in Q2 2026. 2026 Production & Shipment Outlook Summary The 2025 production and shipment profile signals ArcelorMittal's strategic pivot toward quality over pure volume. Despite marginal fluctuations in crude steel output in Europe and Brazil, the growth from high value-added assets in North America and low-cost iron ore operations in Liberia is structurally rebuilding the Group's cost and margin base. The Group projects global apparent steel consumption (ASC) ex-China to grow by 2% in 2026. Against this macro backdrop, the Group forecasts an increase in steel production and shipments across all regions in 2026 compared to 2025, underpinned by improvements in operational efficiency and the positive impact of trade protection measures. III. Production Infrastructure & Process Technology Profile ArcelorMittal operates a highly diversified asset portfolio spanning the full upstream-to-downstream value chain — from iron ore mining to downstream finishing and processing. As of end-2025, the Group's production process structure is as follows: Process Mix: Basic Oxygen Furnace (BOF) output accounts for 74% (41.2 Mt); Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) accounts for 26% (14.4 Mt). Facility Scale: The Group currently operates 30 Blast Furnaces (BF) and 27 Electric Arc Furnaces (EAF) . Capacity Distribution: Europe remains the largest production base, with an annual crude steel capacity of 39.5 Mt (53% of total), followed by Brazil (16.4 Mt) and North America (12.5 Mt). IV. Raw Material Self-Sufficiency & Supply Chain Integration The Group maintains a high degree of vertical integration upstream and downstream to hedge against market volatility — a core pillar of its industrial competitive advantage: Iron Ore Supply: Own iron ore production grew 15.1% YoY to 48.8 Mt in 2025. Canada (AMMC) contributed 25.6 Mt, while Liberia (AML) surged to 9.7 Mt. Self-Sufficiency Rates: In 2025, the Group achieved an iron ore self-sufficiency rate of 72% , a coking coal self-sufficiency rate of 91% , and a scrap steel and Direct Reduced Iron (DRI) self-sufficiency rate of 55% . Logistics Capacity: The Group operates 18 deep-water port facilities and associated rail infrastructure, handling over 51 Mt of freight annually. V. Key Asset Restructuring & Industrial Portfolio Realignment 2025 was a year of deep portfolio optimisation for the Group — divesting weaker assets and concentrating resources in high-growth, high value-added operations. Full Consolidation of Calvert (USA): In June 2025, the Group completed the acquisition of the remaining 50% equity interest in AMNS Calvert (previously a joint venture with Nippon Steel Corporation) at a nominal consideration. The facility is the most advanced flat-rolled steel finishing complex in North America. The newly constructed 1.5 Mtpa EAF produced its first slab in June 2025. Asset Divestitures & Operational Rationalisation: Bosnia-Herzegovina: Completed the sale of the Zenica integrated steelworks and the Prijedor iron ore mine. South Africa: Rationalisation of the long products business and the idling of the Newcastle steelworks were completed by end of January 2026. India Expansion: AMNS India remains a core growth engine. The Hazira integrated steelworks is on track to expand capacity to 15 Mtpa by H2 2026. VI. Major Capital Project Progress (Capex Allocation) ArcelorMittal is currently in a dual capital expenditure cycle: EAF transition and upstream iron ore capacity expansion . Total capital expenditure in 2025 amounted to US$4.34 billion . VII. Decarbonisation Pathway & Industrial Technology Upgrade ArcelorMittal is at a critical juncture in its transition from conventional blast furnace-based integrated steelmaking toward low-carbon process routes: EAF Capacity Expansion: By end-2026, the Group expects to add 3.4 Mtpa of EAF capacity, spanning Gijón and Sestao in Spain, and Calvert in the USA. Key Technology Projects: The 2.0 Mtpa EAF project at Dunkirk, France (€1.3 billion investment) is planned for commissioning in 2029 and is expected to generate carbon emissions at approximately one-third of the level of a conventional blast furnace. Energy Transition: By end-2025, the Group had commissioned 1.6 GW of renewable energy equity capacity, with a further 1.2 GW under construction, primarily in India and South America, with the objective of supplying low-cost clean electricity to steelmaking operations. Carbon Footprint: Absolute carbon emissions declined 3.1% YoY in 2025, representing a cumulative reduction of 47% from the 2018 baseline. It is noteworthy that, given the limited commercial-scale deployment of low-carbon technologies (green hydrogen, Carbon Capture and Storage), the Group's emissions reductions are currently achieved primarily through portfolio restructuring and EAF electrification . VIII. Additional Key Information Portfolio Optimisation: Full Acquisition of Calvert: By acquiring NSC's 50% equity stake, ArcelorMittal has gained full operational control of North America's most advanced flat-rolled steel finishing complex. Exit from Non-Core Assets: The divestiture of the high-carbon-intensity integrated steelworks at Zenica, Bosnia-Herzegovina, and associated iron ore mines reflects a "decarbonise first, then grow" portfolio strategy. Operational Risks: Geopolitical Risk: The Kryvyi Rih steelworks in Ukraine (AMKR) is currently operating at only 35% of rated capacity , facing significant logistics and supply chain disruption. Trade Barriers: US Section 232 tariffs were raised to 50% in 2025, increasing the cost burden on cross-regional material flows. 2026 Outlook: Global apparent steel consumption (ASC) ex-China is projected to grow 2% . The Group's capital expenditure plan for 2026 is budgeted in the range of US$4.5–5.0 billion , with continued focus on the Liberia iron ore expansion and the electrification of process technology in Europe. Summary: 2025 was a year of "deepening asset quality" for ArcelorMittal. By converting its core North American joint venture Calvert into a wholly-owned subsidiary, and achieving successful delivery milestones at the Liberia iron ore mine and India's green energy projects, the Group further consolidated its vertically integrated competitive advantages. For investors, the sustainability of free cash flow generation and the recovery of market share under the EU CBAM framework remain the key monitoring indicators over the next one to two years.