[SMM Precious Metals Macro Analysis: Central Bank Gold Purchases and Nonfarm Payrolls Support the Bottom, Geopolitics and Minutes Suppress the Rebound] Central banks have increased gold holdings for 20 straight months, and the nonfarm payrolls miss has cooled interest rate hike expectations, leaving the valuation recovery of precious metals still resilient. However, the escalation of the US-Iran conflict and the hawkish-leaning minutes are suppressing the short-term rebound. Going forward, focus on June CPI and retail sales data to gauge the direction of rate hike expectations.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,887.5/mt. As the US dollar index drifted lower, LME lead drifted higher in Asian trading to reach a high of $1,904.5/mt. Entering European trading, it was dragged lower by high inventory pressure, plunging and giving back all gains to hit a low of $1,885.5/mt, before eventually closing at $1,891/mt, up 0.19%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2608 contract opened at 16,050 yuan/mt. It initially touched a high of 16,120 yuan/mt before drifting lower, and near the close it dipped to 16,045 yuan/mt, finally settling at 16,050 yuan/mt, down 0.09%. On the macro front: World Gold Council: Global gold ETFs saw net outflows of $8.9 billion in June, with total net inflows of $8 billion in H1. Fed minutes: A few officials thought a rate hike was necessary in June but still supported keeping rates unchanged. Most officials considered that a shorter statement had its advantages and supported removing the “easing bias.” Officials were clearly divided on the rate path, with both rate hikes and cuts seen as possible. South Korea’s KOSPI index has retreated over 20% from its June high, entering a technical bear market. The IMF lowered its global economic growth forecast and raised its growth projection for China. The central bank's Monetary Policy Committee held its Q2 2026 regular meeting. Spot fundamentals: Yesterday, SHFE lead stopped falling and rebounded. Suppliers actively quoted and sold, especially primary lead smelters significantly increased EXW quotations. Quotations from mainstream production areas were at discounts of 30 yuan/mt to premiums of 30 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, EXW. On the secondary lead side, smelters' reluctance to sell at low prices eased somewhat. Some secondary lead enterprises resumed quoting and selling, but market quotes diverged significantly, with secondary refined lead quotations at discounts of 50 yuan/mt to premiums of 50 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead, EXW. Downstream enterprises maintained a strong wait-and-see sentiment, with reduced inquiries and primarily taking deliveries from long-term contracts, while spot order trading was sluggish. On the inventory front, on July 8, LME lead inventory decreased by 650 mt to 291,425 mt. As of July 6, SMM lead ingot social inventory across five regions totaled 70,200 mt, down 2,300 mt from July 2. Lead price forecast for today: Although LME lead has seen slight destocking recently, high lead ingot inventory outside China remains the biggest bearish factor in the current market. In the Chinese market, the most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract is approaching delivery, and lead ingot social inventory is also a focus of attention. Currently, fundamental news is rather subdued, offering limited support to prices. In the near term, we need to pay more attention to the US dollar index trend and the exit of bearish capital on lead prices.

Published: Jul 03, 2026 - 10:26 PM (Kitco News) – While tactical headwinds such as high yields, a strong dollar and the threat of Fed rate hikes persist, the structural tailwinds of Asian and central bank demand and the need for diversification amid high stock/bond correlation should drive gold prices as high as $5,500 per ounce by March of next year, according to the new Monthly Gold Monitor from State Street Global Advisors. In their review of tactical headwinds, State Street strategists led by Aakash Doshi said gold’s opportunity cost and U.S. dollar strength weighed on investor sentiment in June. “Spot bullion fell 11.7%, testing $4,000/oz support in fits and starts,” they wrote. “This compared to a 22.2% decrease in silver, 20.4% drop in bitcoin, and 9.2% decline in commodities flat price. On a risk-adjusted basis, gold outperformed silver, bitcoin, and spot commodities last month. US listed gold ETFs posted hefty monthly redemptions of ~$5.3B following relatively balanced fund flows during April and May.” The strategists noted that the U.S. OIS curve was pricing in around 1.5 Fed rate hikes this year compared to the two to three rate cuts expected as recently as February, which served to boost real yields across the curve while pushing the assets in U.S. money market funds to a record $7.9 trillion, with the U.S. dollar catching a strong bid. “During the March-June war period, gold underperformed against the greenback, versus the rest of G10 FX, by ~2.6 percentage points.” And while energy prices and rate expectations have moderated, the market still sees hikes on the horizon. “Though ICE Brent crude oil prices have fallen below our $80/bbl target on the potential for a sustained US-Iran ceasefire, rates traders still expect the Fed to tighten,” the strategists said. “Rebounding US labor market data and Fed Chair Warsh’s focus on a 2% inflation target have likely lifted the bar for cuts to be reintroduced in the short-term.” State Street sees these tactical headwinds more than offset by gold’s significant structural tailwinds. “Though the ride may be bumpier versus 2024-2025, we believe the gold bull cycle still has legs,” they wrote. “A hawkish Fed pivot shouldn’t change the structural post-Covid dynamic for gold.” First, the strategists point out that global debt loads rose to a record $353 trillion during the first half of 2026. “Critically, the government share of debt is fast approaching 1/3 of that figure, also an all-time high,” they warned. “An active fiscal and inflation impulse should continue to support demand for gold as a monetary hedge.” Gold’s diversification function is also becoming more important as equities and fixed income markets increasingly move in tandem. “Stock/bond correlations remain elevated versus the ~25 year regime from the late 1990s through 2021,” the strategists noted. “Even as correlations have eased somewhat in 2025-2026, we expect demand for liquid diversifiers will remain a key consideration for asset allocators.” And global demand for physical gold, particularly from Chinese retail investors and emerging market central banks, remains strong. “China retail imports have soared since the Iran conflict and local premiums have also risen, suggesting tight onshore supply/demand fundamentals.” Lastly, gold’s share of global managed fund and exchange-traded fund assets remains below 1%. “This is well shy of the 3-10% strategic target we recommend for most portfolios,” they said. “We project bullion prices can rally to $4,750-5,500/oz over the next 6-9 months (70% baseline) while bearish tactical headwinds have increased the odds, in our view, of the yellow metal hovering around $4,000-4,750/oz (25% scenario),” State Street said. “We see robust price support at $3,750-4,000/oz but view the odds of $5,500-6,250/oz (5% bull case) as less likely versus the January/February macro environment.” Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-07-03/state-streets-baseline-scenario-sees-gold-price-high-5500oz-q1-2027

July 5, 2026 As of July 3, 2026, by Florian Grummes Since the end of January, precious metal prices have been in a pronounced correction phase. Following the increasing downward momentum of the past four weeks—which culminated in an escalation and ultimately a clearly recognizable final capitulation—there are now growing signs that precious metal prices are regaining their footing and are on the verge of a major recovery. On the gold market , the break below the key support zone around $4,400 since early June led to an accelerated sell-off , which recently pushed prices down three times to the $3,940–$3,960 range. Apparently, as prices dipped just below $4,000, more buyers returned to the market, allowing the gold price to recover significantly—by as much as $250—over the past two trading days. Short Squeeze Following Price Plunge Silver exhibited an even more pronounced pattern characterized by high volatility : The surprisingly dynamic, yet unsustainable, price surge to $89.37 in the first half of May was followed by an even more severe sell-off. Within six weeks, the price fell sharply, dropping by 29.5% to $55.59. Unlike gold, however, the low of June 24 has not been breached in the past nine days, despite all efforts by the bears. Instead, the short squeeze in the silver market has so far led to a rebound of 13.1%. Early-summer bottom taking shape We have pointed out several times in recent weeks that the combination of capitulation by weak hands (high gold ETF sales), favorable seasonality starting in July, increasingly fearful sentiment, and a completely oversold technical market should bring about an early-summer bottom. Accordingly, the odds are now good that the gold price can recover toward its 50- and 200-day moving averages in the range around $4,500. For the silver price, levels around $70 would at least be conceivable. Market Correction and Further Shift Toward the East In any case, the five-month price decline in precious metals appears to have halted for the time being. While silver has more than halved in price since its high at the end of January, Western bullion banks used the period of weakness to systematically reduce risk in the futures markets: short positions were significantly reduced, and open positions were scaled back. However, the geopolitical cost of this development is considerable. China specifically capitalized on the low prices and accumulated large quantities of physical metal—several hundred metric tons of gold and an estimated up to 2,500 metric tons of silver. This market correction was accompanied by a decline in open interest to its lowest level in decades, as well as additional price losses in the wake of the recent COMEX collapse. The bottom line is that a structural shift is continuing: While the West is cleaning up its books, physical precious metals are increasingly finding their way into strong hands in the East. Summer Rally: Proceed with Caution Depending on how the anticipated summer rally unfolds and how the significantly overbought stock markets—which are vulnerable to a correction, particularly the parabolically rising semiconductor sector—behave in the meantime, even higher price targets for gold and silver are certainly conceivable by fall. For now, however, we do not want to get too far ahead of ourselves; instead, we intend to reassess the situation step by step and, when in doubt, would rather be pleasantly surprised. Silver in USD – Support around $55 has held Silver in U.S. dollars, daily chart as of July 3, 2026. © GOLD.DE Starting from the new all-time high of $121.67 on January 29, 2026, the silver price has so far fallen back in three distinct downward waves to its most recent low of $55.59. This has corrected nearly the entire upward move since the breakout above the $50 mark last fall. However, the broad range between $45 and $55—at the center of which lies the previous decades-long high of $50—should provide extremely robust support and has so far withstood its first stress test. Oversold and Ready for a Rebound Now that silver has returned to this range in a heavily oversold state, the chances of a significant rebound are very good. Ideally, the entire correction over the past five months can be interpreted as a falling wedge, which could set the stage for a strong upward breakout in the medium term. At the same time, the path upward is littered with significant resistance levels. A key factor in the coming weeks will be a push toward the prominent resistance zone around $70. This zone converges the slightly rising 200-day moving average ($69.83), the falling 50-day moving average ($71.32), and a dominant downtrend line. Patience Rather Than Momentum However, an initial bounce off the moving averages is very likely, and silver is likely to need considerably more time to build new, sustainable upward momentum. Recovery with Clear Price Targets In the short term, however, the signals pointing to an impending major recovery clearly predominate. The 38.2% retracement of the downtrend since mid-May, at around $68.50, can be viewed as a minimum target. If, following a temporary pullback, a breakout above the moving averages occurs, price targets in the range of $75 to $78 will come into focus. Overall, there are increasing signs that precious metals have formed a solid bottom following the turmoil of recent weeks and that the summer rally has already begun. Conclusion: Silver – Signs of a Summer Rally Are Emerging Recent price movements in the precious metals markets suggest that the five-month correction phase may have reached its preliminary low. In recent weeks, both gold and silver have exhibited the combination of oversold conditions, extreme sentiment, and capitulation signals that often marks the transition from a downtrend to a recovery phase. In particular, the strong short squeeze of the last two days suggests that in the coming weeks or over the next one to three months, buyers will regain control of price movements . Now that the breakout zone around $55 has held, the silver price has considerable potential for recovery given the overall sharp sell-off. Our first moderate price target for the summer rally is approximately $70. Depending on how the price develops, higher targets are also conceivable. However, the fragile situation surrounding the AI and data center boom, as well as the increasingly precarious outlook for the semiconductor sector, lead us to remain deliberately cautious. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/silver-and-gold-ahead-of-the-summer-rally-is-the-rally-about-to-begin

Published on June 30, 2026 According to a report published over the weekend, Chinese officials are considering an overhaul to the country’s gold import/export regulations to “ streamline administration, facilitate trade, and improve the management of gold carried across the border by individuals. ” Under the current import/export framework, officials from the General Administration of Customs and the People’s Bank of China “ jointly formulate rules for individuals carrying or mailing gold and gold products across the border. ” The new plan would apparently end the Chinese central bank’s involvement in gold import/export rulemaking while “ such cross-border movements will remain subject to customs supervision .” According to the report, the new import/export regime was “ jointly formulated with the General Administration of Customs to update the existing regulatory framework in line with evolving economic conditions, legal requirements and policy adjustments. ” The report didn’t detail the new regulations, but it appears the aim is to make gold imports and exports more streamlined and convenient for individuals and businesses. According to the report, “ The revisions also seek to improve convenience for businesses and the public by formalizing measures that have proven effective in practice. ” “In addition, the draft would strengthen ex-ante supervision by clarifying the scope of customs oversight, enhancing supervision of foreign trade companies acting as agents, and improving the penalty framework for violations, according to the central bank.” Generally speaking, fewer hands in the regulatory pie mean a lighter regulatory burden, and many observers believe the new framework will at least modestly streamline the gold import/export process. Chinese investment demand was a significant driver during the bull market last year, and gold continued to flow into the country through the early months of 2026. In May, Chinese gold imports hit a 2-year high . Of 163 tonnes. That pushed year-to-date gold imports to 692 tonnes, a 76 percent increase over the same period last year. World Gold Council Ray Jia said, “ The positive local gold price spread remained a key factor in encouraging imports. ” Chinese buying helped push gold bar and coin demand to a 12-year high of 1,374.1 tonnes last year. In value terms, global bar and coin demand was a record-breaking $154 billion. More than half of last year’s global coin and bar demand came from two countries – China and India. The surge in Asian investment demand helped drive prices to record levels in January. It has since cooled as inflation fears and higher interest rate expectations have created headwinds for the gold market . The Shanghai Gold Benchmark Price dropped 2.7 percent last month, as yuan strength exacerbated the general downward trend in gold prices. Chinese gold ETFs reported outflows of metal for the first time since August 2025 last month, but there still appears to be a strong appetite for physical gold. Guangzhou Southern Gold Market Academy research analyst Song Jiangzhen told Bloomberg that demand for physical bullion bars and inflows of metal into gold accumulation plans are supporting demand. Accumulation plans, such as Money Metals' monthly purchase plan , allow investors to buy gold incrementally through regular monthly payments. Looking ahead, Jia said that seasonal factors should continue to support the Chinese gold market as jewelers restock after the holiday season. “The lower gold price may help boost these re-stocking activities, although jewelers may sit on the sidelines if the price weakness accelerates.” However, Jia said bullion buying could slow if the price continues to slide. source： https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/06/30/chinese-officials-float-plan-to-streamline-gold-importexport-rules

[Bearish for Precious Metals] US Treasuries and the Dollar Stay High, Opportunity Cost Pressure Persists Currently, US Treasury yields remain in a high range overall, with the 10-year yield trading around 4.4%-4.5%. Real interest rates staying high continue to raise the holding cost of precious metals. Meanwhile, the US dollar index remains at a relatively strong level, putting passive pressure on precious metals. This forms a dual pressure pattern of “rising yields + stronger dollar”, limiting short-term upside room. Institutional capital continues to flow out, and the trend of ETF selling has not reversed. Global gold ETFs continue to see net outflows, with the holdings of the leading SPDR Gold ETF continuing to decline. Onshore gold ETFs in China also face sustained redemption pressure. The absence of incremental institutional buying leaves futures with insufficient rebound momentum. Every rise encounters concentrated profit-taking selling from previously trapped positions, and a trend-following rally lacks capital support. Tightening Trading Rules Combined with Off-Season Consumption Leave Short-Term Support Weak The SHFE raised the margin requirement for SHFE gold futures to 16% and expanded the daily price limit to 14% starting July 2, causing short-term highly leveraged speculative funds to deleverage and exit, and market liquidity to marginally contract. Meanwhile, the current June-August period is the traditional off-season for global gold jewelry consumption. During price declines, insufficient buying support tends to amplify fluctuations. [Bullish for Precious Metals] Warsh Confirms Inflation Cooling, Tightening Expectations Marginally Ease In a speech in Sintra on Wednesday evening, Warsh explicitly stated that “inflation upside risks in the US have eased over the past four weeks,” which directly alleviated market concerns about persistent sticky inflation. Precious metals prices rose in tandem during the speech. Overall market expectations for rate hikes cooled, providing fundamental support for precious metals’ valuation recovery. This is the core short-term bullish driver. US June ADP Employment Misses Expectations, Sending Signals of Cooling Labor Market US private sector employment increased by 98,000 in June according to ADP, below the market expectation of 118,000, marking the smallest gain since March. The previous figure was revised down to 122,000. The data show that job seekers’ search periods are lengthening and the pace of job creation is slowing. A cooling labor market will gradually transmit to wage growth and core services inflation, weakening the core rationale for the US Fed to maintain tightening and rate hikes. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI for June Was Overall Below Market Expectations The data showed a combination of “slowing expansion + rapid cost cooling,” with the Prices Paid Index plunging 9.1 points to 73, the largest one-month drop since July 2022, indicating that the pace of raw material cost increases has significantly slowed. Industrial inflation pressure rapidly released, strengthening the certainty of an inflation downturn and reserving room for a US Fed policy pivot. [Macro Summary] Current June ADP and PMI data missed expectations, releasing signals of cooling employment and inflation. Compounded by Warsh confirming Wednesday night that inflation had eased, market expectations for US Fed rate hikes experienced a marginal pullback. The remaining core data window this week is the June non-farm payrolls report and the initial jobless claims data for the week. The data results will directly verify the sustainability of the cooling trend and determine the extent of the revision of rate hike expectations.