[SMM Nickel Flash] On the upstream side, news about Indonesian nickel ore costs and windfall tax policies supported the willingness to hold prices firm, smelters generally held back from selling with a bullish outlook, and high-grade NPI quotes rose in tandem. On the downstream side, steel mills showed relatively positive purchasing sentiment before the holiday. Although most steel mills maintained a wait-and-see attitude after the holiday, the market overall still held up well.

[SMM Steel] Asian hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices continued to rise after Vietnam’s Hoa Phat increased June shipment prices by US$50/t, reinforcing the regional uptrend already seen in Taiwan and South Korea. Market participants viewed Hoa Phat’s move as particularly influential due to Vietnam’s role as a key regional pricing benchmark. Strong slab and HRC exports to Western markets tightened domestic supply in Vietnam, forcing local buyers to increase imports and pushing regional trading activity and prices higher. The supply shortage caused by mills prioritizing export orders continued to support the recovery of Asian steel prices.

SMM May 6 News: The most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened at 16,690 yuan/mt during the session. Driven by a broad rally in non-ferrous metals at the start of trading, futures held up well with a fluctuating trend, and the lead price center steadily rose, touching a high of 17,005 yuan/mt. Near the close, the rally slowed down somewhat, with prices consolidating slightly at high levels, ultimately closing at 16,980 yuan/mt, up 350 yuan/mt or 2.1%, recording a small bullish candlestick. Currently, domestic secondary lead smelters are constrained by undersupply of scrap battery raw materials, with increasing production cuts and shutdowns. Regional supply contraction supported spot cargo and futures. A sudden safety accident at a major lead-zinc smelter outside China introduced uncertainty to the subsequent global lead ingot supply, which is expected to provide short-term support for domestic lead prices. However, the consumption side in China remained persistently weak, with no notable improvement in downstream demand in May. Combined with the high probability of intensifying lead ingot inventory buildup pressure after the holiday, upside room for lead prices will be constrained. SHFE lead is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term. Data source statement: Data other than public information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

[SMM Daily Comment: Downstream Adopted a Wait-and-See Approach While Upstream Showed Strong Willingness to Hold Prices Firm, and the Market Held Up Well] On May 6, SMM high-grade NPI upstream sentiment factor was 3.58, up 0.04 MoM, and the high-grade NPI downstream sentiment factor was 2.6, flat MoM.

Starting from the new all-time high of USD 5,602 on January 29, the gold price has now been in a correction phase for over three months, characterized so far by two sharp downward waves, two recovery waves, and most recently by another downward wave since mid-April.

[SMM Precious Metals Market Flash] On the afternoon of May 6, the US dollar index fell below the 98 level, and silver prices were buoyed by this, maintaining a firm trend.