[SMM Analysis] Steel Export Review: Geopolitical Conflicts Trigger the Reshaping of the Export Landscape In terms of steel billet exports , the main target market in the first two months remained Indonesia. Part of the cargoes was imported by Chinese-funded or joint-venture rolling mills in Indonesia for further processing and use, thereby avoiding Southeast Asia’s import tariffs on finished steel products, while another part was supplied directly to local projects under construction. Meanwhile, Southeast Asia, Africa, and South America formed a solid base of exports. In particular, on the African side, Djibouti, as a core transshipment hub, had been handling a large volume of circulating resources. Turkey, meanwhile, saw a wave of concentrated external purchases due to delays in steel scrap vessel schedules and spot-futures price spread arbitrage. In terms of bar exports , the share to Hong Kong, China declined somewhat from the end of last year, while exports to Singapore overtook it. The main reason was that procurement in Singapore was rigidly driven by local public housing renewal and public infrastructure projects, such as the Greater Southern Waterfront, according to construction periods, with actual end-user consumption remaining relatively stable; whereas Hong Kong, China, as a capital and logistics transshipment hub, saw some earlier speculative re-export orders constrained by offshore exchange-rate fluctuations at the beginning of the year and funding borrowing costs. Traders proactively reduced some speculative exposure for financial risk hedging purposes, which led to a decline in transshipment procurement volume. Looking ahead to March , with the full blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s semi-finished products export channels were effectively cut off. Chinese steel billet is expected to absorb these additional export orders arising from geopolitical conflict, and traders and steel mills will also accelerate shipments to markets outside China such as Southeast Asia to gain a larger replacement share. Therefore, total steel billet exports still have room to rise. By contrast, Chinese bar exports mainly rely on short-haul regional shipping routes into the inland areas within Asia, and were subject to extremely limited direct impact from the disruption of long-haul Middle East logistics. Therefore, March shipments are expected to remain stable, supported by rigid-demand restocking within the region. Source: SMM, General Administration of Customs Unlike the strong performance of billets, sheets & plates exports in the first two months were unsatisfactory. The cumulative exports of both cold galvanized and hot-rolled products in January and February declined YoY , with the drop in hot-rolled products being more pronounced. However, it should be noted that before the full suspension of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz at the end of February, logistics channels to the Middle East remained open, which secured a critical delivery window for sheets & plates. Therefore, in terms of HRC exports , Saudi Arabia still firmly ranked first among export destinations with a volume of 348,000 mt , mainly because its large-scale non-oil infrastructure and manufacturing projects in China were still in an intensive construction phase, with strong end-user steel demand, which also prompted local buyers to lock in relatively lower-priced Chinese HRC ahead of shipping disruptions, thereby maintaining its leading position. Pakistan (230,000 mt ), by contrast, saw this mainly due to bottlenecks in domestic supply, creating phased concentrated restocking demand, and according to the SMM survey, most purchases were made by downstream pipe factories. From the perspective of cold galvanized exports , the Southeast Asian market was currently in a stage of rapid development, and macroeconomic expansion had created a huge gap in flat steel products. Thailand in particular (304,000 mt ) was in a concentrated raw material stocking cycle for local downstream auto manufacturers at the beginning of this year, so just-in-time procurement by multiple physical manufacturers directly pushed up local imports. Looking ahead to March , under the dual impact of the Strait of Hormuz blockade and the Ramadan effect, sheets & plates exports to the Middle East core region are expected to face a sharp contraction. SMM shipping data showed that steel arrivals had already declined by more than 900,000 mt. However, under the pressure of elevated destocking in China, this portion of blocked exports is expected to be redirected to Southeast Asia and other alternative markets with “rigid manufacturing demand” for redistribution, thereby offsetting shipment reductions caused by localized logistics disruptions. Therefore, there is no need for excessive concern over total sheets & plates exports in March Source: SMM, General Administration of Customs Copyright and Intellectual Property Statement: This report is independently created or compiled by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "SMM"), and SMM legally enjoys complete copyright and related intellectual property rights. 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India’s steel market in 2026 is expected to remain balanced, with demand slightly outpacing supply. Domestic consumption will absorb most output, while imports decline overall and exports increase modestly as a balancing mechanism. Supported by strong growth and infrastructure investment, India is transitioning toward a demand-led steel market with solid long-term potential.

[SMM Analysis: The Copper Smelting Industry Faces the Test of Extreme TCs, with Sulphuric Acid and Geopolitics Becoming Key Variables] Since the beginning of this year, the spot market for copper concentrate TCs has shown an unprecedentedly sharp downward trend. The SMM spot copper concentrate index has fallen all the way from -$45/dmt at the start of the year and is now approaching -$70/dmt. Both the speed and magnitude of the decline have been historically rare. So-called negative TCs mean that when smelters purchase copper concentrates, they are not only unable to obtain traditional processing income from miners, but instead must pay fees to the seller. Based on the current TC of -$70/dmt, the cost that smelters actually need to pay to the seller in the copper smelting process is equivalent to a TC of $70, or further converted to a TC+RC of about $112. This extreme price signal has quickly triggered strong market concern over smelter profitability, and has even begun to raise worries about the sustainability of production in China’s copper smelting industry.

[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary: Polysilicon Prices Remained Slightly Weak, While Module Prices Were Stable on the Surface but Fell in Practice] Over the weekend, N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 36-43.5 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices still appeared slightly weak over the weekend, and the market reported that some crystal pulling facilities had extremely low target prices, which upstream suppliers had not yet accepted.

Recently, the 2025 Electrochemical Energy Storage Black Start and Frequency Regulation Key Technology Research and Application Project of Huadian Group Wuchang Branch was officially and successfully accepted for grid connection. The project was jointly advanced by Huadian Group, Shanghai Electric Power Transmission & Distribution Group, and REPT Battero. As a key pilot project under the national 14th Five-Year Plan, the project took the lead in achieving engineering application, marking that REPT Battero's 324Ah battery cell has 1P C-rate performance and has passed testing under relevant national standards, enabling it to participate in future grid-side frequency regulation projects. The project accepted for grid connection this time is located in Wuhan, Hubei, with a total capacity of 9MW/9.554MWh, consisting of two 4.5MW/4.5MWh energy storage units. It is intended to build electrochemical energy storage black start capability for two sets of 9E-class combined-cycle generating units and, when the ESS is idle, to participate in secondary frequency regulation ancillary services for the power grid through the combined thermal power and energy storage frequency regulation mode.

Capacity side, according to incomplete statistics, China’s alkaline electrolyzer market remained at 43.77 GW and the PEM electrolyzer market remained at 2.7 GW, with no new capacity added. There was no offline delivery information this week. Project-related updates: Binyang County Haoyuan Industrial Investment Co., Ltd.: Competitive consultation was launched for the Binyang County Green Electricity Hydrogen Production Pilot Construction Project (procurement of hydrogen production equipment and facilities). The budget amount was 2.85 million yuan, with a maximum price limit of 2.85 million yuan. The project entity was Binyang County Haoyuan Industrial Investment Co., Ltd. It is understood that the company is a wholly owned subsidiary of Binyang County Kunpeng Water Affairs Co., Ltd. Kunpeng Water Affairs has registered capital of 448.6 million yuan, and its ultimate controller is the Binyang County Finance Center. Datang Inner Mongolia Duolun Coal Chemical Co., Ltd.: Inquiry-based procurement was conducted for the feasibility study and green methanol certification consulting technical services for the CNCEC Duolun coal chemical coal-based process biomass co-firing coupled with green electricity green methanol production project. It is understood that the Datang Duolun 150,000-kW integrated wind and solar power hydrogen production demonstration project was China’s first medium-to-large-scale technological demonstration project for off-grid wind and solar power hydrogen production deeply coupled with coal chemicals. It was invested in and constructed by Datang Duolun Ruiyuan New Energy Co., Ltd., with a total investment of about 1.3 billion yuan. Construction officially began in November 2023, construction officially began in November 2023, hydrogen was successfully produced on December 29, 2024, and the project was officially connected to the grid and put into operation on January 17, 2025. Shaanxi Construction Engineering Installation Group Co., Ltd.: The Guyang-Baiyun Obo gas transmission pipeline project, undertaken by Shaanxi Installation Group, achieved important progress, with its Guyang initial station and valve chamber successfully passing completion acceptance. It is reported that the gas transmission pipeline project has a 20% hydrogen blending transmission capacity and is a key planned construction project under the “County-to-County Coverage in Western Inner Mongolia” initiative in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region’s 14th Five-Year Plan for Oil and Gas Development. The pipeline has a total length of 125 km, starting from the Guyang initial station and running overall from south to north, successively passing through Guyang County, Darhan Muminggan Banner, and the Baiyun Obo mining district in Baotou City, and ultimately reaching Barun Industrial Park. PetroChina Shenzhen New Energy Research Institute Co., Ltd.: It released a processing tender for its brine hydrogen production electrolyzer. Funding for the tender project was self-raised by the enterprise, with a contribution ratio of 100%. It is understood that procurement of necessary raw materials and components includes, but is not limited to, integrated electrolyzer materials such as electrodes, end plates, bipolar plates, separators, and gaskets. Suppliers were also required to provide essential auxiliary electrolyzer accessories such as cooling towers, chillers, and potassium hydroxide in accordance with the purchaser’s requirements. Tianjin Saihong Environmental Engineering Co., Ltd.: A groundbreaking and pile foundation commencement ceremony was held in the Dagang Petrochemical Industrial Park of Tianjin Binhai New Area. It is understood that the project uses the polyploid giant reed “Lüzhou No. 1,” carefully cultivated by Ruihengmao Group, as its core raw material, successfully overcoming the bottlenecks of existing gasification technologies and the economic challenges of biomass raw materials. Tangshan Haitai New Energy Technology Co., Ltd.: recently entered into a strategic cooperation agreement with Beijing Shougang Gas Co., Ltd. During the meeting, Haitai New Energy gave a detailed presentation on the planning layout and current progress of its long-distance hydrogen pipeline project. The two sides then conducted in-depth discussions and exchanges on the development direction of the hydrogen energy industry and successfully signed a strategic cooperation agreement. In view of Shougang Gas’s continuously rising future demand for hydrogen, Haitai New Energy will leverage its comprehensive advantages in hydrogen transportation to provide Shougang Gas with stable and reliable green hydrogen supply services and comprehensive integrated solutions. Shanghai Juna New Material Technology Co., Ltd.: its water electrolysis hydrogen production electrode company, Juna Technology, completed a new round of financing, exclusively invested by CATL, which has become the company’s largest external institutional shareholder at present. Previously, Juna Technology had completed its first round of financing led by Lenovo Star and its second round led by Changjiang Innovation. This round of financing also marked the company’s first introduction of industrial capital. To date, the company has accumulated 8 external institutional shareholders. Shanghai Juna New Material Technology Co., Ltd.: formally signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Zhejiang Sunshine Green Hydrogen Technology Co., Ltd. This cooperation mainly focuses on the industrialisation and deployment of megawatt-class AEM electrolyzers. Leveraging its advanced JE series high performance AEM hydrogen production electrodes, Juna Technology will provide core component support for Sunshine Green Hydrogen in the R&D, testing, and scaled mass production of megawatt-class electrolyzers. Xinjiang Qingda Energy Technology Co., Ltd. : the environmental impact report for its integrated production line project with annual output of 120,000 mt of green hydrogen and 700,000 mt of green ammonia is planned for submission for approval and public disclosure. According to the disclosure, the project is a new-build project located in the western zone of Wusu Industrial Park and invested in and constructed by Xinjiang Qingda Energy Technology Co., Ltd., with a total investment of 4.1914 billion yuan. The project includes extensive construction content, specifically: six water electrolysis hydrogen production unit lines, each with annual output of 20,000 mt, to achieve annual output of 120,000 mt of green hydrogen; meanwhile, one ammonia synthesis unit line with annual output of 700,000 mt to produce 700,000 mt of green ammonia; in addition, one nitrogen production unit line with annual output of 560,000 KNm³ is also planned. In terms of auxiliary facilities, the project will build 6 electrolyzer workshops, 1 office building, 1 circulating water station, 1 central control room, 1 liquid ammonia tank farm, 1 hydrogen tank farm, 1 demineralised water station, and other supporting facilities, with total gross floor area of 127,083.72 m² and total site area of 330,883 m². The construction period is expected to be 12 months. In the water electrolysis hydrogen production segment, the project adopts the alkaline electrolyzer (ALK) hydrogen production process, equipped with 86 2,000-Nm³ electrolyzers, as well as 2 purification units and 2 gas-liquid treatment units, and is expected to produce 120,000 mt of hydrogen annually, mainly as raw material for ammonia synthesis. For the ammonia synthesis unit, the project will build one new unit adopting Casale axial-radial technology, with major equipment including ammonia compressors and synthesis towers, and is expected to produce 700,000 mt of liquid ammonia annually. CRRC Zhuzhou Electric Locomotive Research Institute Co., Ltd.: CRRC Zhuzhou Institute successfully won the bid for 8 water electrolysis hydrogen production systems for Phase I of Kaishan Group’s Kenya green fertilizer project. It is understood that this is the first export of CRRC electrolyzer products to Africa and also the world’s first project to produce green hydrogen/ammonia using geothermal new energy. The Kaishan fertilizer project uses geothermal steam from a Kenyan energy company to generate clean electricity, and then uses this clean electricity to produce hydrogen and green ammonia, ultimately producing more than 480,000 mt of green fertilizer. The hydrogen production section of the project uses a total of 90 sets of 1,000 Nm³/h. Xinqing Energy Technology (Fukang) Co., Ltd.: the EPC general contracting tender for the Xinqing Energy photovoltaic hydrogen production coupled resource clean utilisation low-carbon integrated project (chemical section) was recently released. It is reported that the project is located about 28 km east of Fukang City, Changji Prefecture, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, about 72 km west of Jimusar County, about 7 km north of Ganhezi Town, and adjacent to the east side of Xinjiang Jinxiang Sairui Coal Chemical Technology Co., Ltd. The project plans to build a new 383.3 MW PV power generation system to achieve hydrogen production capacity of 20,000 mt per year, together with a supporting ammonia synthesis system with annual output of 130,000 mt. In addition, one 220 kV step-down substation will also be built. Inner Mongolia Baofeng Coal-Based New Materials Co., Ltd.: Power Station Group has formally signed a cooperation agreement with Inner Mongolia Feng Coal-Based New Materials Co., Ltd. Power Station Group will supply key equipment for the Phase I water electrolysis hydrogen production project of the other party’s wind and solar power hydrogen production project, specifically including 8 alkaline electrolyzers of 1,250 Nm³/h and the world’s largest single-set 5,000 Nm³/h separation and purification system. In addition, Power Station Group will also provide the industry’s first outdoor three-dimensional layout design supporting services. Policy Review 1. Notice of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and Three Other Departments on Issuing the Implementation Plan for the High-Quality Development of Energy-Saving Equipment (2026-2028). The document states that by 2028, mass-produced water electrolysis hydrogen production equipment will achieve DC power consumption below 4.2 kWh/Nm³ under rated operating conditions. 2. Notice of the General Office of the National Energy Administration on Issuing the Guidelines for Project Approval of the 2026 Energy Industry Standards Plan. The key areas for project approval under the 2026 energy industry standards plan include 8 items. In the hydrogen energy field, the key directions include fundamentals and general applications, hydrogen production and conversion, hydrogen storage and transportation, hydrogen refueling, hydrogen power and generation, and hydrogen equipment. 3. Notice of the People’s Government of Heilongjiang Province on Issuing the Outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development of Heilongjiang Province. The document states that Heilongjiang will step up development of the bioenergy industry, foster green liquid fuel industries such as green hydrogen-to-ammonia, green methanol, and green aviation fuel, strive to achieve annual production capacity of 1 million mt of green hydrogen and 3 million mt of green liquid fuels, and accelerate the scaled and commercial development of bio-natural gas. Corporate Developments CIMC Enric Holdings Limited: Yang Baoying, honorary president of its hydrogen business center, and his delegation recently visited Pengfei Group. During the exchange, the two sides held discussions on promoting the implementation of the “hydrogen cylinder replacement” operating model for hydrogen heavy-duty trucks in Lvliang and ultimately reached consensus. This move has injected strong momentum into the commercialisation and scaled promotion of hydrogen heavy-duty trucks, pressing the “fast-forward button.” Yuchai Xinlan (Jiangsu) Hydrogen Energy Co., Ltd. : formally entered into a strategic cooperation agreement with Henan Hitachi Xin Co., Ltd. The two sides will carry out in-depth cooperation around key links in the hydrogen energy industry chain and jointly advance hydrogen technology innovation, product R&D, and market applications. Shaanxi Construction Engineering Installation Group Co., Ltd.: the Guyang first station and valve chamber of the Guyang-Baiyun Obo gas pipeline project, which it constructed, successfully passed completion acceptance. This milestone means that the innovative infrastructure project, equipped with 20% hydrogen blending transmission capability, is on the verge of official operation. It is understood that the Guyang-Baiyun Obo gas pipeline project not only has 20% hydrogen blending transmission capacity, but is also a key planned construction project under the “county-to-county connectivity in western Inner Mongolia” initiative in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region’s 14th Five-Year Plan for oil and gas development. The pipeline has a total length of 125 km, starting from the Guyang first station and generally running from south to north, passing through Guyang County, Darhan Muminggan Banner, and Baiyun Obo mining district in Baotou City before finally reaching Barun Industrial Park. Jiangsu Guofu Hydrogen Energy Technology Equipment Co., Ltd. : a delegation from Thailand’s water resources, electricity, and related institutions came to China for exchanges on the new energy industry and made a special trip to Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu, to visit the rooftop PV hydrogen production project jointly developed by ZNShine Solar and Guofu Hydrogen Energy. It is understood that the project relies on a distributed PV system installed on factory rooftops to provide clean and stable electricity for the enterprise’s production and energy applications through PV power generation, balancing efficient energy utilisation and green development. At the same time, it integrates hydrogen application scenarios and is equipped with an ESS to ensure stable energy supply for hydrogen production. It is a leading distributed PV hydrogen production demonstration project in China, showcasing China’s advanced achievements in the integrated development of PV and hydrogen energy. CSIC 712 Research Institute: the 100-kg-class hydrogen-powered hexacopter UAV “Hydrogen Peak No. 1,” which it led in developing, successfully completed its maiden flight. It is understood that Hanhydrogen Power, as the main supplier of the hydrogen supply system for hydrogen fuel cell UAVs, participated in the formulation of T/CEEIA265-2017 Technical Specification for Fuel Cell Fuel Systems of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles by the China Electrotechnical Society. Shanghai Yigong Hydrogen Energy Technology Co., Ltd.: Yigong Hydrogen Energy has seen concentrated batch shipments of its hydrogen compressor products, which have been delivered to project sites across the country for commercial operation. Guofu (Jinan) Hydrogen Energy Technology Development Co., Ltd.: registered capital is 2 million yuan, and the legal representative is Ding Leizhe. Equity information shows that Jiangsu Guofu Hydrogen Energy Technology Equipment Co., Ltd. holds 80% of the company, while Zhejiang Lingniu Yishi New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. holds 20%. Patent Applications 1. Shanghai Institute of Ceramics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (China) disclosed patent CN2025110028, developing a ceramic-based anion exchange membrane with laboratory-tested service life reaching 80,000 hours. 2. Johnson Matthey (UK) filed patent WO2025109876, disclosing an Fe-Ni-Mo ternary non-precious metal catalyst formulation with activity close to platinum-based materials. Technology Footprint/Technical Specifications 1. Professor Yu Ying’s team at Central China Normal University developed a three-dimensional graded nanostructured catalytic electrode, a core component for seawater hydrogen production. 2. Dalian University of Technology designed an electron-pump catalyst with an asymmetric photoresponse structure to maintain asymmetry in electron distribution. 3. Research teams from the School of Electrical Engineering at Xi’an Jiaotong University and the State Key Laboratory of Electrical Materials and Electrical Insulation successfully developed a Ru/Ti3C2Ox@NF bifunctional electrocatalyst for seawater electrolysis. 4. Johnson Matthey and Syensqo achieved efficient recycling and reuse of platinum group metals and ionomers in PEM fuel cells and electrolyzers, significantly reducing carbon footprint. 5. Teams from Xi’an Jiaotong University and Peking University jointly developed a new-type osmium-based catalyst, significantly improving the efficiency and economics of AEM water electrolysis hydrogen production and supporting the scaled deployment of low-cost green hydrogen.