Published: 5 days ago One builds MAS-backed vaulting for central banks, the other opens a pipeline to Shanghai. Singapore and Hong Kong are pursuing different strategies to bolster their positions as precious metals hubs , with Singapore expanding clearing and vaulting services for international investors and Hong Kong building on its ties to Mainland China's bullion market. Singapore is viewed as a neutral jurisdiction with established storage facilities and a strong wealth management sector, Dick Poon, general manager at Heraeus Precious Metals Hong Kong, said in an emailed reply to questions. He said Hong Kong's advantage lies in its connection with Mainland China's bullion market through its integration with the Shanghai Gold Exchange. Singapore's strategy gathered pace in June when Deputy Prime Minister and Monetary Authority of Singapore Chairman Gan Kim Yong announced at the Asia-Pacific Precious Metals Conference that Singapore Exchange Ltd. would launch an over-the-counter clearing system for Loco Singapore gold by the end of 2026. The system will clear physical gold stored and settled in Singapore and will be backed by DBS Bank Ltd., Deutsche Bank AG, ICBC Standard Bank Plc, JPMorgan Chase & Co., Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. Ltd., and United Overseas Bank Ltd. Gan also said the Monetary Authority of Singapore would begin offering gold vaulting services to foreign central banks and sovereign entities from October 2026. Singapore will remove the 5% cap on physical investment precious metals under selected tax incentive schemes for eligible funds and single-family offices, whilst Singapore Exchange is studying a physically deliverable gold futures contract. Joshua Rotbart, founder of J. Rotbart & Co., said regulations are no longer the main factor separating Singapore and Hong Kong. "The regulations are almost the same," he told Singapore Business Review via Zoom. "It's more about the nature of the market and the perception of risk." He said investors typically choose Singapore for long-term gold storage and wealth preservation , whilst Hong Kong has developed into a trading centre serving Mainland China. Singapore's latest measures build on work launched in March, when the Monetary Authority of Singapore and the Singapore Bullion Market Association formed the Gold Market Development Working Group to review clearing, settlement, storage, logistics, custody, and investment products. Hong Kong has also stepped up efforts this year, but with a stronger focus on the mainland. The Financial Services and the Treasury Bureau (FSTB) signed a cooperation agreement with the Shanghai Gold Exchange in January to develop a gold central clearing system and deepen cooperation between the two markets. The government also plans to expand Hong Kong's gold storage capacity to more than 2,000 tonnes within three years. The state-owned Hong Kong Precious Metals Central Clearing Company Ltd. held its first board meeting in April. Financial Services and Treasury Secretary Christopher Hui said preparations for the clearing system were progressing, with trial operations scheduled to begin this year. The bureau also announced in June that the Shanghai Gold Exchange had opened its first International Board-certified offshore gold delivery vault in Hong Kong, letting international investors take delivery of eligible contracts outside Mainland China. Albert Cheng, CEO at the Singapore Bullion Market Association, said Project Lion 2 aims to strengthen Singapore's gold market through improvements to clearing, storage, custody, and investment products. "By strengthening clearing, custody, vaulting, and product development, we can complement existing centres and deepen institutional participation," he added. Source： https://sbr.com.sg/exclusive/singapore-hong-kong-take-rival-paths-capture-global-gold-trade

SMM July 2 News: Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh stated on Wednesday that US inflation upside risks have clearly cooled over the past four weeks, easing market concerns about aggressive rate hikes; he also indicated that no further forward guidance would be released on subsequent interest rate policy, refusing to disclose whether the US Fed needs to consider a rate hike at its next meeting; the US dollar weakened, and precious metals rebounded. As of around 16:09 on July 2, COMEX gold dropped 0.11% to $4,077.9/ounce; SHFE gold main contract rose 1.53% to 890.66 yuan/g; COMEX silver dropped 1.1% to $59.845/ounce; SHFE silver main contract rose 1.91% to 14,650 yuan/kg; silver T+D rose 2.95% to 14,551 yuan/kg. In the precious metals stock market, as of the close on July 2, the precious metals sector rose 4.21%, with individual stocks: Zhaojin Gold and Chifeng Gold hit their daily limit up, while Shanjin International, Xiaocheng Technology, Zhongjin Gold, and Western Gold led the gains. News [Warsh: Inflation Eases Over Past Four Weeks, AI Is Reshaping Economy, Forward Guidance Loses Necessity] On July 1, at the ECB's annual central bank forum in Sintra, Portugal, Warsh again clearly stated that the US Fed would not provide forward guidance on the future interest rate path , hoping that policymakers can engage in thorough discussions based on the latest data at each meeting, rather than previewing the policy direction to the market in advance. He said that US inflation risks had eased over the past four weeks, and the supply expansion brought by AI could profoundly change how the economy operates, with the US at the center of this transformation, but whether AI ultimately leads to inflation or deflation should be judged by the central bank based on data. Warsh said the US Fed is “charting a new path” and will no longer hint at the direction of interest rates in advance as it did in the past. He said: “We will hold our next meeting in four weeks, and I hope we can have a real family-style debate then.” He reiterated that forward guidance is not the right policy in the current economic situation, and the US Fed will continue to base its decisions on the latest economic data in the future, rather than committing to a policy path in advance. This means that the US Fed will rely more on real-time economic data rather than sending policy signals to the market in advance. Spot Market Silver In the spot market: On July 2, the reference average factory price of SMM 1# silver in the morning was 14,558 yuan/kg, up 3.35% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, overall offers remained firm early in the month, but transaction follow-through was slightly weak, and consumption performance fell short of expectations. As silver prices rebounded slightly, downstream wait-and-see sentiment intensified. In Shanghai, morning offers were mainly at TD+5 to +15 yuan/kg. Some smelters quoted on the high side, but actual buying interest was weak, with most deals clustered around TD+10 yuan/kg. In other regions, low-priced cargoes had basically been cleared, while offers in Shenzhen were mostly around TD+5-10 yuan/kg. Today, the market quoted premiums for the SHFE most-traded contract 2608 at a discount of 30 to 20 yuan/kg. Overall, a slight cooling in rate-hike expectations provided some support for precious metals prices. At the start of the month, the spot direction remained unclear. Maintenance at copper plants last month caused a slight disruption on the supply side, and offers generally maintained a slight premium structure. Views From Various Parties Regarding the outlook for precious metals, some institutions’ views are as follows: On July 1, the World Gold Council released the “2026 Mid-Year Outlook for the Global Gold Market.” Looking ahead to H2, gold’s valuation framework indicated that gold will continue to serve as a barometer of the global macro economy, with three main possible scenarios. From current levels, gold prices were broadly in line with market consensus: the market expected the US Fed to raise rates at least once in 2026, most likely in October; the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and the European Central Bank were all set to tighten policy; and US Q2 inflation was expected to peak, near $3.9. If there were no major changes in the above environment, gold prices may trade around $4,100/oz within the year, with a fluctuation range of about ±5. If geopolitical or economic conditions deteriorate, or if interest-rate expectations shift, gold is expected to regain its upward momentum; however, only sufficiently strong signals of a global economic slowdown would be likely to drive a breakout to the upside. On the downside, a stronger US dollar, rate hikes exceeding expectations, and a rebound in market risk appetite were the main headwinds for gold prices; if gold prices remain below $4,000/oz, it may trigger further selling. However, based on historical performance, if gold prices fall by more than 10% from current levels, it may trigger “buy-the-dip” demand from long-term investors in multiple regions. State Street Investment Management said that, as the opportunity cost of holding gold and heightened volatility weighed on investor sentiment, bullish gold trades had been weak, and spot gold prices repeatedly tested the $4,000/oz support level. State Street believed that, although gold prices may be more volatile than in 2024-2025, the gold bull-cycle still has upside room, and the US Fed’s hawkish policy shift was expected not to change gold’s post-pandemic structural trend. State Street noted, “Since the US-Iran conflict, China’s retail gold imports have surged, and local premiums have risen in tandem, reflecting tightening fundamentals in China’s gold supply-demand balance.”State Street expects that over the next six to nine months gold prices could rise to the $4,750 to $5,500 per ounce range, with strong support in the $3,750 to $4,000 per ounce area. However, compared with the macro environment from January to February, the probability of gold prices reaching $5,500 to $6,250 per ounce is relatively small. (Zhitong Finance) State Street Investment Management strategists noted in a report that gold prices could reach $5,000 per ounce by early 2027, as the gold bull cycle remains persistent. They believe that as U.S. government debt rises, gold's role as a currency hedge is expected to be supported, while actual demand for gold remains strong. Global gold fund holdings (as a share of global mutual fund and exchange-traded fund assets) currently remain below State Street's target allocation of 3% to 10% for most portfolios. Moreover, they added that a hawkish pivot by the Fed should not alter gold’s structural post-pandemic trend. State Street expects base bullion prices to rise to $4,750 to $5,500 per ounce in the next six to nine months. (Jinshi Data APP) Analysts at Saxo Bank said, "The market has not yet attracted enough buying interest to establish that level as a support level." They also pointed out, "Even though energy prices have pulled back recently, investors still expect the Fed may further tighten monetary policy to combat an inflation rebound, and as a result, gold prices fell 14% in Q2, marking the worst quarterly performance since 2013." (Jinshi Data APP) CICC's latest research report pointed out that gold may have already overpriced rate hike expectations. Fed rate hikes are still not the base case, and the gold market may have overly priced in rate hike expectations, leaving room for a pullback this year. CICC's macro team believes that employment and consumption pressures, along with the expanding financing needs of the U.S. AI economy, may make it difficult for the Fed to materially turn hawkish, and monetary policy may be "hawkish in words but dovish in action." Based on the implied interest rate expectations model from gold prices, it is estimated that the current gold price around $4,000 per ounce has fully priced in three to four rate hikes, exceeding the rate hike expectations priced in by the interest rate futures market. Looking ahead, after the decline in oil prices is further reflected in U.S. short-term inflation data, the gold market's pricing of rate hike expectations may be corrected, and futures market short-term funds may have opportunities to cover short positions. (Jinshi Data APP) Li Xunlei, Deputy Director of the China Chief Economist Forum, pointed out that gold's long-term trend exhibits long bear markets and short bull markets. Since 1971, 30 years have been bear markets and 25 years have been bull markets, but each bull market has seen gains of over fivefold. A bull market typically lasts around 10 years. This gold bull run has now lasted nearly 10 years, with prices tripling during that time, so caution is warranted at this stage. (Jin10 Data App) Deutsche Bank analyst Michael Hsueh said the bank has cut its Q3 gold price forecast by over 20% to $4,300/oz and lowered its Q4 forecast by 17% to $4,800/oz. "Potential investors who would normally provide support are notably absent," he said, pointing to weak demand for exchange-traded funds and reduced buying appetite in some countries. (Jin10 Data App) Macquarie said profit-taking weighed on silver prices last month, and price action is once again driven by macro factors amid rising expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes. Similar to gold, silver prices are expected to move sideways for the rest of the year, then gradually decline into 2027, with inflationary pressures and the likelihood of further US Fed rate hikes limiting upside room. The higher inflation and bond yields, the greater the downward pressure. Silver, in particular, has been more susceptible to a pullback after outperforming gold, driven by bullish sentiment fueled by supply tightens, low inventory, and strong demand. Historically, silver pullbacks tend to be rapid. Macquarie expects silver to trade at $70/oz in Q4 this year and pull back to $65/oz by the end of 2027. (Jin10 Data APP) Recommended reads:

SMM, Jul 2: Metals Market: Overnight, base metals on overseas and China markets showed mixed performance. Only LME nickel, SHFE copper, and SHFE tin rose, with SHFE tin up 0.99%, LME nickel up 0.49%, and SHFE copper up 0.07%. SHFE aluminum closed flat at 22,485 yuan/mt. LME zinc led the decline, down 1.68%, while losses in other metals were within 1%. The most-traded alumina contract rose 0.11%, and the most-traded aluminum casting contract rose 0.4%. In the ferrous metals sector overnight, iron ore led gains, up 1.7%. Rebar rose 0.1%, while stainless steel fell 0.54% and hot-rolled coil edged down 0.09%. Coking coal and coke, coking coal closed flat at 1,265 yuan/mt, and coke fell 1.12%. In the precious metals sector overnight, COMEX gold rose 0.15% and COMEX silver fell 0.53%. On the domestic front, SHFE gold rose 1.23% and SHFE silver rose 1.44%. As of 6:43 a.m. on Jul 2, overnight closing quotes: Macro Front China: The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI, compiled by RatingDog, came in at 51.7 in June, staying in expansion territory for the seventh consecutive month. [Shenzhen Housing Market Trading Volume Hits Near 6-Year High in June] Data released today by the Shenzhen Centaline Research Center showed that combined new and second-hand residential home sales in Shenzhen reached 8,878 units in June, down 11.9% MoM but up 14.2% YoY. This was the highest transaction volume for the same period since 2021. Specifically, online registrations of new homes (pre-sale and move-in) totaled 3,785 units, down 16.7% MoM but up 15.6% YoY. Second-hand home transfers reached 5,093 units, down 8% MoM but up 13.1% YoY. (Jinshi Data APP) US Dollar: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index rose 0.24% to 101.41. Fortress Securities stated that investors are underestimating the likelihood of the Fed raising interest rates as early as this month, as Chairman Kevin Warsh appears ready to take a more preemptive approach to fighting inflation. The firm's head of macro strategy, Frank Flight, continues to view two rate hikes this year—in September and December—as his base case. Even so, he noted that the market is pricing in a roughly 30% probability of a July hike, a level he considers too low. (From Wallstreetcn APP) Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh set an ambitious timetable for the US central bank to "discover" and begin relying on real-time economic data, which he argues would be superior to what he described as "problematic government reports." "My aspiration is that in nine to 12 months, we will be leveraging new technologies to understand what is happening in the real economy in a synchronous, real-time manner, enabling us as central bank policymakers to make better decisions. We will no longer rely solely on data from government agencies that suffer from statistical biases and where surveys have lost their relevance," Warsh said at a monetary policy forum in Portugal. "My ideal data is 'what's happening now.' If we do our jobs well, a year from today we will say: we have uncovered data that helps us make better decisions." Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh stated at the ECB Forum on Central Banking (the final day of the Sintra annual conference) that inflation risks have receded over the past four weeks, while he reaffirmed his commitment to price stability. He declined to provide any forward guidance on future interest rate policy. He described the labour market as "holding steady," noting robust economic demand and strong supply-side performance. Deutsche Bank analysis pointed out that Fed officials' public remarks have declined notably since the Jun 17 FOMC meeting, confirming Warsh's earlier policy stance that "US central bank officials talk too much" and that there is a need to reduce forward guidance and push for "institutional change." (Wallstreetcn) Data: US private-sector job growth slowed in June but increased for the 12th consecutive month, showing the labour market cooldown has yet to evolve into a sharp slowdown. Data released Wednesday by ADP Research showed US private payrolls rose by 98,000 in June, below the 119,000 estimated by economists. The prior month's figure was an increase of 122,000. Although the gain missed expectations, the data still supports the judgment that the labour market has been stabilizing this year. Macro Front: Data releases today include the US June unemployment rate, US June seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls, US initial jobless claims for the week ended Jun 27, US June average hourly earnings YoY, US June average hourly earnings MoM, US May factory orders MoM, Switzerland June CPI MoM, and the Eurozone May unemployment rate. Due to the US Independence Day holiday (Jul 3), US June non-farm payrolls data will be released earlier, at 8:30 p.m. Beijing time on Thursday, Jul 2. The US stock market will be closed on Friday, Jul 3. Trading in CME precious metals, energy, foreign exchange, US Treasury, and equity index futures contracts will end early at 1:00 a.m. Beijing time on Jul 4. Trading in ICE Brent crude oil futures contracts will end early at 1:30 a.m. Beijing time on Jul 4. Investors are advised to take note. (Jinshi Data APP) In addition, the Ministry of Commerce will hold its first regular press conference for July. 2027 FOMC voter and San Francisco Fed President Daly will attend a conference on the Spanish economy. Crude Oil: Overnight, oil prices fell across both benchmarks, with WTI crude down 2.03% and Brent crude down 2.41%. The immediate driver of the heavy sell-off was a rapid easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. A White House spokesperson explicitly stated there is a strong chance of reaching a deal between the US and Iran, with delegations from both sides having held indirect talks in Doha on Jul 1 on topics including unfreezing assets and ensuring maritime security in the strait. Both Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley concluded that the global oil market is about to return to severe oversupply. Even accounting for the massive global demand to replenish strategic petroleum reserves, the daily average net surplus in the crude oil market next year will still approach 2 million barrels, exerting long-term pressure on oil prices. (Wallstreetcn) Official data showed US crude oil inventories fell from 415 million barrels at the end of February to 331 million barrels as of Jun 19, hitting their lowest level since 1983. Although these depleted reserves urgently need to be rebuilt, this is not enough to reverse the surplus pattern. Samantha Dart, Goldman Sachs' co-head of global commodities research, estimated global demand to replenish strategic petroleum reserves is slightly above 1 million barrels per day. While this will tighten the market to some extent, it can only partially offset the anticipated surplus, with the market ultimately still facing a net surplus of nearly 2 million barrels per day. Regarding market concerns over future shipping costs in the Strait of Hormuz, Goldman Sachs believes the material impact on global energy prices would be limited. (Wallstreetcn)

SMM, June 10: Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals in the domestic market weakened across the board. SHFE lead fell 0.43%, SHFE tin dropped 1.89%, SHFE nickel lost 2.29%, SHFE copper edged down 0.33%, SHFE aluminum declined 0.85%, and SHFE zinc slipped 0.12%. In addition, the most-traded foundry aluminum futures contract rose 0.11%, the most-traded alumina contract gained 3.21%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract added 0.53%, the most-traded silicon metal contract increased 2%, while the most-traded polysilicon futures contract fell 1.63%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore rose 0.59%, rebar added 0.13%, HRC edged lower, and stainless steel fell 0.59%. In the coking coal and coke segment, the most-traded coking coal contract dropped 3.13%, and the most-traded coke contract declined 1.35%. In overseas base metals, as of 11:39, LME metals were nearly all lower. LME copper edged up 0.06%, LME aluminum fell 1.03%, LME lead dropped 0.38%, LME zinc declined 0.24%, LME tin lost 0.92%, and LME nickel slipped 0.36%. In precious metals, as of 11:39, COMEX gold fell 1.99%, touching an intraday low of $4,195.5/oz, while COMEX silver dropped 1.82%. In domestic precious metals, the most-traded SHFE gold contract declined 3.79%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract slumped 6.79%. Ilya Spivak, global macro head at Tastylive, noted that the real drivers lie in shifting expectations around US Fed policy, rising yields, and a stronger US dollar. "I think these factors are all weighing on gold," he said. Spivak added that if gold breaks below the $4,100 mark, support levels would fundamentally change, and by the end of the year, we may be looking at the next threshold of $3,500. (Jin10 Data APP) Meanwhile, by the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 5.43%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract dropped 2.77%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe container freight futures contract climbed 3.2% to 3,993 points. As of 11:39 on June 10, some futures midday quotes: Spot and Fundamentals Zinc: Today, #0 zinc mainstream transaction prices were concentrated in the 24,575-24,745 yuan/mt range, Shuangyan was mainly transacted at 24,675-24,835 yuan/mt, and #1 zinc mainstream deals were at 24,505-24,675 yuan/mt. In early trading, the market quoted premiums of 20-30 yuan/mt against the SMM average price, with no quotes against the futures contract yet... Macro Front China side: [National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): May CPI Rose 1.2% YoY, PPI Rose 3.9% YoY, with PPI Continuing to Increase] NBS data showed that in May 2026, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose 1.2% YoY. Specifically, urban CPI rose 1.3% YoY, while rural CPI rose 1.1% YoY; food prices fell 1.7% YoY, while non-food prices rose 1.9% YoY; consumer goods prices rose 1.6% YoY, while services prices rose 0.8% YoY. In the January–May average, national CPI rose 1.0% YoY. In May, national CPI edged down 0.1% MoM. In May 2026, China’s national producer price index (PPI) rose 3.9% YoY and 0.5% MoM. The industrial producer purchasing price index rose 5.8% YoY and 1.3% MoM. In the January–May average, PPI rose 1.0% YoY, while the purchasing price index rose 1.6% YoY. Within the purchasing price index in May, price increases were led by non-ferrous metals and wires (22.0%), chemical raw materials (11.8%), fuels and power (10.0%), textile raw materials (2.5%), and ferrous metals (0.3%); meanwhile, declines were seen in building materials and non-metallic products (-5.5%) and agricultural and sideline products (-1.6%). Dong Lijuan, chief statistician of the Urban Department at the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), commented on the CPI and PPI data for May 2026. The PBOC conducted a 159-billion-yuan 7-day reverse repo operation at an operation rate of 1.4%, unchanged from the previous operation. No reverse repos matured today. US dollar: As of 11:39, the US dollar index slipped 0.01% to 99.94. Renewed conflict between the US and Iran drove up both the dollar and oil prices, exacerbating market concerns over inflation and interest rate hikes. Markets are awaiting key US inflation data to gauge the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance. (Jinshi Data APP) At 20:30 Beijing time tonight, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the May CPI data. This is also the most closely watched heavyweight inflation data ahead of the new Fed Chair Warsh's policy rate meeting next week. According to forecasts, four institutions, including Goldman Sachs, UBS, Deutsche Bank, and Morgan Stanley, project the overall CPI YoY for May to be in the 4.17%–4.3% range, all above April’s 3.81% . However, their MoM core CPI forecasts are generally below market consensus. (Wall Street CN) According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged through June is 98.2%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut is 1.8%. The probability that the US Fed will keep interest rates unchanged through July stands at 85.8%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 bp rate hike is 12.6%, and that of a cumulative 25 bp rate cut is 1.6%. CSC Financial pointed out that, in the short term, the likelihood of a Fed rate hike remains low, and the market's concerns about Fed tightening are mainly at the expectations level, built on assumptions of sticky US inflation and a persistently hot labor market. CME FedWatch data shows that markets outside China expect the most likely Fed rate hike to begin at the end of October 2026. The current global liquidity tightening and market adjustment represent a front-running reaction to expectations for a Fed rate hike in Q4. For China’s bond market, the increase in expectations of Fed tightening is not a negative factor. China’s bond market is relatively independent and has a relatively small correlation with US Treasuries. Moreover, given the ample liquidity in China, the expected tightening of liquidity outside China and the adjustment in equity markets may not rule out the possibility of driving capital into the bond market, supporting current levels of long-dated bonds. Going forward, the 10-year Chinese government bond yield is expected to continue to fluctuate around the 1.70% mark; a break below 1.70% would still require the emergence of incremental domestic information. Data Releases: Today, the following data will be released: US May unadjusted CPI YoY, US May seasonally adjusted CPI MoM, US May seasonally adjusted core CPI MoM, US May unadjusted core CPI YoY, the Bank of Canada interest rate decision due June 10, and China May M2 money supply YoY (pending). In addition, the following should be watched: the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision announcement; and a monetary policy press conference by Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers. Crude Oil: As of 11:39, both oil benchmarks rose, with WTI up 0.94% and Brent up 0.98%. Renewed supply concerns stemming from the re-erupting conflict in the Middle East, together with declining US crude oil inventories, have provided support to oil prices. Data: US API crude oil inventories for the week ended June 5: -9.119 million barrels (expected -3.421 million, prior -6.757 million). US API gasoline inventories for the week ended June 5: -1.191 million barrels (expected -614,000, prior 3.454 million). (Jin10 Data APP) Additionally, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Tuesday local time that, due to the loss of over 11 million barrels per day of crude oil production in the Middle East caused by the conflict, major consuming countries are drawing down inventories at an unprecedented pace to fill the supply gap, and OECD oil inventories are heading towards their lowest levels since at least 2003. EIA stated that, under its current assumption that shipping activity in the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to return to pre-conflict levels before early 2027, total OECD oil inventories will fall to just below 2.3 billion barrels by December. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM June 2 News: Metals market: Overnight, metals generally rose across both domestic and overseas markets, with SHFE lead being the only decliner, down about 0.09%. LME tin and SHFE tin both rose over 2%, with LME tin up 2.63% and SHFE tin up 2.46%. LME copper, LME aluminum, LME zinc, LME nickel, SHFE copper, and SHFE nickel all rose over 1% (LME copper +1.97%, LME aluminum +1.59%, LME zinc +1.09%, LME nickel +1.42%, SHFE copper +1.12%, SHFE nickel +1.26%). The remaining metals gained less than 1%, with the alumina front-month contract down 0.69% and the foundry aluminum front-month contract up 0.41%. Overnight, ferrous metals collectively rose, with stainless steel leading the gains at +1.52%, and iron ore up 0.51%. Hot-rolled coil and rebar saw minor fluctuations. In coking coal and coke, coking coal rose 2.19% and coke rose 0.84%. Precious metals: Overnight, COMEX gold fell 1.7% and COMEX silver dropped 0.96%. In China, SHFE gold fell 1.28% and SHFE silver declined 0.73%. As of 6:43 AM on June 2, overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [NDRC, National Energy Administration and other departments issued the Notice on Printing and Distributing the Guidelines for Accounting of Non-Fossil Energy Power Consumption (Trial)] On June 1, the NDRC, National Energy Administration and other departments issued the Notice on Printing and Distributing the Guidelines for Accounting of Non-Fossil Energy Power Consumption (Trial). It mentioned that the development and reform commissions, energy bureaus, ecological environment departments, statistics bureaus, and data management departments of all provinces, autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the central government, and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, as well as State Grid Corporation of China, China Southern Power Grid Co., Ltd., Inner Mongolia Power (Group) Co., Ltd., relevant power generation enterprises, Beijing and Guangzhou Power Exchange Centers, China Renewable Energy Engineering Institute, and China Electricity Council: To implement the major decisions and plans of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, and to promote the improvement of the carbon emission statistical accounting system, we have formulated the Guidelines for Accounting of Non-Fossil Energy Power Consumption (Trial), which are hereby issued to you. Please carry out relevant work accordingly. These guidelines shall be implemented on a trial basis from the date of issuance and shall be used for accounting of non-fossil energy power consumption for 2026 and subsequent years. If there are any issues or suggestions during the trial period, please provide timely feedback to the NDRC and the National Energy Administration. Shanghai Mayor Gong Zheng chaired a standing meeting of the municipal government on June 1. The meeting approved in principle the Shanghai Plan for Accelerating New-Type Industrialisation and Building a Modern Industrial System under the 15th Five-Year Plan, and noted the need to develop and strengthen a number of emerging pillar industries and make forward-looking arrangements for future industries. The meeting emphasized the need to adhere to innovation-driven development and forge competitive advantages in industry, accelerate breakthroughs in new technologies, R&D and application of new products, and cultivation and opening of new scenarios, support the efficient transformation and industrialisation of scientific and technological achievements, and turn more "flowers of technology" into "fruits of industry." The CPC Chengdu Municipal Committee and the Chengdu Municipal People's Government issued the Opinions on Accelerating the Building of a National Advanced Manufacturing Base. The opinions proposed forward-looking deployment of future industries, accelerating the layout of new tracks including nuclear fusion energy, brain-computer interfaces, quantum technology, intelligent sensing, embodied AI, sixth-generation mobile communications, biomanufacturing, cell and gene therapy, flying cars, and frontier new materials. US dollar: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index rose 0.26% to 99.19. Data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed that, driven by growth in new orders and production, the US May ISM Manufacturing Index rose to 54, hitting a four-year high. US manufacturing has sent expansion signals for five consecutive months, indicating that manufacturing is regaining vitality amid a surge in artificial intelligence (AI) investment, more favourable tax policy, and reduced trade policy uncertainty. Persistent cost pressure may mean US consumers will face higher prices, as the US Fed's preferred inflation gauge rose 3.8% YoY in April. (Wallstreetcn) According to CME "FedWatch": The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through June was 98.4%, with a 1.6% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut. The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through July was 90.2%, with an 8.4% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike and a 1.4% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut. (Jin10 Data APP) Ozan Tarman, Vice Chairman of Global Macro at Deutsche Bank, said the US Fed's next move will not be a rate hike. Tarman said the newly appointed Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh will try to "convince his colleagues to stay put." "Everyone is excitedly talking about how he might completely change his stance and even convince Trump that a significant rate hike is possible this year — that seems a bit excessive to me." "The best approach is to wait and see, and let the political dynamics in the US, the Strait of Hormuz, and even the UK play out on their own," Tarman said. Tarman noted that a European Central Bank rate hike in June appears to be a foregone conclusion, but whether Lagarde will raise rates in September will depend on the progress of Middle East peace negotiations. (Bloomberg) Torsten Slok, Chief Economist at Apollo Global Management Inc., said that AI infrastructure construction will push up inflation in the early stages, which will prevent new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh from cutting interest rates as quickly as he had previously hinted. "We may have to wait a while longer, because in the early stages, the AI boom will certainly push up inflation," he said. From the perspective of semiconductor prices, energy prices, and labour costs, the risk of price pressure is "very clear." (Bloomberg TV) Macro: Today, the US April JOLTs job openings, Switzerland April trade balance, UK April central bank mortgage approvals, Eurozone May CPI annual rate preliminary reading, and Eurozone May CPI monthly rate preliminary reading will be released. In addition, 2026 FOMC voter and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari will deliver a speech, 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Hammack will speak on monetary policy, and Bank of England Governor Bailey will attend a House of Lords hearing. Crude oil: As of the overnight close, oil prices on both markets rose, with WTI up 5.85% and Brent up 4.53%, driven by the breakdown of US-Iran negotiations and blockade risks. Earlier, Iranian media reported that Iran would suspend communication with the US through intermediaries and planned to completely block the Strait of Hormuz, sending crude oil prices sharply higher. This morning, US President Trump said he expected to reach an agreement with Iran "within the next week," extending the current ceasefire arrangement and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Trump said the negotiations were progressing well and expressed optimism about reaching a deal. (CCTV) (Wallstreetcn APP) According to US sources, the Trump administration continued to release large volumes from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve to ease the energy supply crisis triggered by the US-Iran conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Data released by the US Department of Energy (DOE) showed that the Strategic Petroleum Reserve decreased by 8 million barrels of crude oil last week, following declines of 9.1 million barrels and a record 9.9 million barrels in the two preceding weeks. As of now, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventory has fallen to 357.1 million barrels, the lowest level since January 2024. (Wallstreetcn) Three sources said OPEC+ producers will most likely agree at their meeting on Sunday to further increase crude oil production quotas in July. However, the Iran war has so far caused some countries to fall short of their previous production increase targets. A further increase in production quotas would indicate that the organisation is gradually resuming normal operations, despite disruptions caused by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the unexpected withdrawal of the UAE in May. According to sources, OPEC+ is expected to increase production by approximately 188,000 barrels per day in July, the same as the increase agreed for June, which had been reduced from 206,000 barrels per day after taking into account the UAE's withdrawal. (Jin10 Data APP)

Gold has been pulled in two directions in recent weeks. On one side, rising oil prices and escalating geopolitical tensions have strengthened the metal’s safe-haven appeal.