Recently, the Guangdong Provincial Energy Bureau completed the energy-saving report review for the South China base project of Cangzhou Mingzhu (002108) and approved the report in principle. According to the public announcement, the project is located in Xiancun Town, Zengcheng District, Guangdong Province, with a total investment of approximately 3.3789 billion yuan. It includes two sub-projects: a lithium battery separator and a PE pressure pipeline. The main construction contents include 8 wet-process lithium battery separator production lines and 6 PE pressure pipeline production lines. Upon completion, the project will have an annual output of 30,000 mt of PE pressure pipelines and 2.4 billion m² of wet-process separators. The separator sub-project is planned to begin production in December 2028, and the PE pressure pipeline sub-project is planned to begin production in October 2027.

The Arizaro project in Argentina includes six mining rights of the Arizaro lithium salt lake, covering a total area of approximately 205 square kilometers, with total LCE resources of 4.122 million mt.

Since the beginning of August, China’s solar cell market has staged a sharp reversal. TOPCon cell prices bottomed out in late July and rebounded rapidly. Compared with the lows seen from late July to early August, mainstream prices as of August 18 had risen by more than 20% across major formats, with gains in some specifications approaching 30%. The rally was initially supported by a rising cost floor. Since mid-August, however, the pace of price increases has clearly exceeded what can be explained by cost recovery alone. Following the rollout of the U.S. Section 232 measures, expectations for front-loaded procurement across supply chains serving the U.S. market have intensified. Traders have increasingly become marginal buyers of higher-priced cells, further amplifying gains in the spot market. In contrast, domestic module manufacturers remain reluctant to accept current high cell prices. This means that while the market is being supported by the policy window and export-related stockpiling, whether the rally can evolve from a short-term move into a more sustainable uptrend will ultimately depend on whether higher cell costs can be passed through to module prices and whether domestic demand can take over once the policy-driven export window begins to close. Current Market: Cost Recovery Sets the Floor, Export Stockpiling Amplifies the Rally The market began to reverse rapidly in August. According to SMM data, as of August 18, mainstream price ranges for TOPCon G12R, M10 and G12 cells had risen to RMB 0.316-0.367/W, RMB 0.316-0.367/W and RMB 0.319-0.352/W, respectively. Offers for some G12R and M10 cells briefly reached around RMB 0.38/W. Costs provided the initial foundation for the rebound. Since late July, stronger expectations for higher polysilicon prices, a rapid recovery in wafer prices, and rising costs for silver paste and other auxiliary materials have jointly lifted the cost floor for solar cells and strengthened producers’ willingness to hold firm on offers. However, cost movements can largely explain why prices were able to rebound from low levels; they do not fully explain the pace of gains since mid-August. The stronger driver behind the acceleration has been rapidly rising expectations for advance procurement following the rollout of the U.S. Section 232 measures. On August 6, the United States formally announced Section 232 measures covering polysilicon and its derivatives. The measures set minimum import prices of $0.22/W for solar cells and $0.38/W for solar modules. They will take effect at 12:01 a.m. U.S. Eastern Time on December 4, 2026, for covered products entered for consumption or withdrawn from warehouse for consumption. Certain polysilicon derivatives listed in the announcement will also be subject to additional ad valorem duties. The transition period between the announcement and implementation has prompted front-loaded procurement and inventory building across the Asian solar supply chain serving the U.S. market. Based on current transaction patterns, this incremental demand is becoming an increasingly important marginal driver in the spot market. According to feedback from supply-chain traders surveyed by SMM, the market could see around 15-20 GW of solar cell stockpiling demand during the policy window, with traders also emerging as key buyers of some higher-priced material. It is important to stress that the 15-20 GW figure remains an industry survey estimate and market expectation. It does not represent volumes that have already been contracted, prepaid, assigned shipping schedules or exported. Only if a substantial portion of this expected demand is ultimately converted into actual purchase orders will it materially affect near-term cell shipment flows and spot inventories. Module Makers: Domestic Demand May Take Over, but Acceptance of High Cell Prices Remains Limited Compared with traders, domestic module manufacturers remain cautious about purchasing high-priced cells. On the one hand, domestic project demand is expected to improve in Q4, which could support a sequential recovery in module production schedules and cell procurement. On the other hand, module producers remain constrained by end-market tender prices, project returns and their own inventory positions. At present, module makers generally view RMB 0.33-0.35/W as a more acceptable procurement range for solar cells. In terms of cost pass-through, solar cells have responded relatively quickly in the current round of price increases, but whether module prices can rise in tandem remains uncertain. If module selling prices fail to absorb the increase in cell costs, module producers are more likely to delay procurement, reduce safety inventories, prioritize internally produced cells or adjust production schedules rather than continue chasing higher-priced external supply. This is likely to lead to greater market segmentation. Cell producers with well-secured export orders may be able to maintain firmer offers, while standard domestic orders and more abundantly supplied formats may remain subject to pricing pressure from module makers. As a result, the current rally is more likely to remain structural rather than develop into a synchronized increase across all formats and all producers. Why Could Mid-October Become a Key Turning Point? It is worth noting that the Section 232 measures do not provide an unrestricted window for imports ahead of implementation. The U.S. presidential proclamation also states that if the Secretary of Commerce determines that a company has stockpiled polysilicon or its derivatives before the measures take effect, the department may coordinate with U.S. Customs and Border Protection to impose import restrictions. Advance procurement by traders therefore should not be viewed as risk-free front-loading. How U.S. authorities distinguish between normal inventory preparation and policy-avoidance stockpiling, as well as how strictly the provision is ultimately enforced, could also affect actual shipment flows. The Section 232 measures are scheduled to take effect on December 4, 2026. According to trader feedback, arranging shipments from China or other major Asian production hubs, completing ocean freight and clearing U.S. customs generally requires at least around 40-45 days. Working backward from the implementation date, shipments intended to enter the U.S. before the new measures take effect may therefore need to depart by around mid-October to provide a more comfortable logistics buffer. From a procurement perspective, the closer the market gets to mid-October, the less time remains to arrange new export orders, which could gradually reduce traders’ willingness to chase higher prices. Assuming no major changes in logistics conditions, trader purchasing patterns or subsequent U.S. implementation rules, the market could follow a baseline pattern in which export-related stockpiling continues to support orders and prices through August and September. As the available shipping window narrows and compliance risks rise in October, new inquiries may gradually decline. If incremental export procurement weakens materially by mid- to late October, domestic module producers could once again become more influential in setting solar cell prices. Q4 Outlook: Domestic Demand May Provide a Floor, but Correction Risks Rise After October From a supply-demand perspective, the solar cell market could see two distinct phases of demand in Q4. The first phase is concentrated procurement linked to front-loaded exports. Such orders tend to be released quickly and are highly sensitive to delivery timing. Traders may be willing to pay a certain premium to secure product within the available policy window, helping reduce inventories at cell producers and providing continued support to prices. The second phase would depend more heavily on domestic demand. Q4 project deliveries could lift module production schedules and, in theory, increase solar cell consumption. However, domestic module producers are much more cost-sensitive than traders purchasing against a time-limited export window. Their procurement is more closely tied to immediate production needs, and they are less willing to absorb elevated prices. In other words, stronger domestic demand could provide downside support, but may not be sufficient to sustain the high prices created during the export-driven procurement window. Based on this logic, SMM expects solar cell prices to remain relatively firm through August and September, while upward momentum could gradually weaken after entering October. If new export orders begin to decline from early October while module producers continue to resist higher prices, the probability of a downward shift in transaction prices will increase in mid- to late October. The scale of any correction will depend on the actual volume purchased by traders, incremental production at cell manufacturers and the strength of domestic module demand. At the same time, if a substantial portion of the expected 15-20 GW of stockpiling demand is converted into trader purchases but downstream consumption ultimately lags the pace of earlier inventory building, stock pressure could increase once the policy window closes. If part of the material remains in trader inventories or overseas warehouses, subsequent channel restocking demand may effectively have been pulled forward, potentially weakening export orders further in November and December. Three Indicators to Watch First, changes in the volume and pricing of solar cell purchases by module manufacturers. If higher-priced transactions remain concentrated among traders while module makers continue to procure only on a low-inventory, just-in-time basis, the rally will still lack sustained downstream support. Second, cell producer inventories and production schedules. If manufacturers rapidly increase output in response to stronger export orders, but the additional production encounters weaker export demand after October, inventories could begin building again and amplify downward price pressure. Third, order divergence among different cell formats. High-efficiency products and formats better suited to export demand may remain relatively firm, while more abundantly supplied products primarily serving the domestic market could feel pricing pressure from module makers earlier. Overall, the impact of the current Section 232-driven market on China’s solar cell sector can be summarized as “near-term export-led destocking, a shift in demand drivers around October, and a return to domestic fundamentals in Q4.” With traders still driving a significant share of high-priced procurement and module producers yet to broadly accept current cell prices, the rally remains clearly cyclical and structural in nature. As the front-loading window narrows after mid-October, the risk of a correction in solar cell prices is likely to rise materially.

Ningbo Fubang announced on the evening of August 12 that, upon application and approval from the Shanghai Stock Exchange, the company's stock abbreviation will be changed from "Ningbo Fubang" to "Fubang New Materials" starting August 18, 2026, while the stock code "600768" will remain unchanged. The company completed the industrial and commercial registration change procedures on August 12, 2026, and its full name has been changed to "Ningbo Fubang High-Tech Materials Co., Ltd." Following the acquisition of a 55% stake in Ningbo Electrical Alloy Co., Ltd. through a major asset restructuring in December 2024, Ningbo Electrical Alloy Co., Ltd. has become a controlling subsidiary of the listed company. The company's main business has now changed from aluminum processing to the production and sales of electrical contact products and materials (the core raw materials for electrical contact products and materials are mainly silver and silver alloys). In 2025, the company's revenue from electrical contact products and materials accounted for 70% of its total revenue, becoming a core driver of the company's performance growth and one of the important directions for future strategic development. To align the company name with the current industrial operating landscape and development strategy, match the direction of optimizing the main business structure and industrial layout planning, and guide the market and investors to fully understand the company's core value, the company has changed its stock abbreviation from "Ningbo Fubang" to "Fubang New Materials".

SMM News, August 18: Metals market: Overnight, base metals in the domestic market mostly fell. SHFE copper fell 0.84%. SHFE aluminum fell 0.19%. SHFE zinc fell 0.48%, and SHFE tin fell 1.47%. SHFE lead edged up, while SHFE nickel edged down. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract fell 0.56%, and the continuous casting aluminum contract fell 0.71%. Overnight, ferrous metals mostly rose. Stainless steel rose 0.32%, iron ore rose 0.14%, and rebar fell 0.3%. Hot-rolled coil rose 0.18%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.18%, while the most-traded coke contract rose 0.23%. Overnight, in overseas metals, LME base metals mostly moved lower. LME copper fell 0.3%. LME aluminum rose 0.45%. LME lead fell 0.55%. LME zinc fell 0.11%. LME tin fell 0.49%. LME nickel fell 0.36%. Overnight, precious metals : COMEX gold extended the previous trading day’s gains, rising 0.81%, while COMEX silver rose 1.22%. Overnight, the continuous SHFE gold contract extended the previous trading day’s gains, rising 0.41%, while the continuous SHFE silver contract rose 0.82%. As of 7:16 on August 18, overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [The Ministry of Commerce and other departments jointly issued the “Opinions on Further Stimulating the Vitality of Lower-Tier Markets and Boosting County-Level Consumption”] The Ministry of Commerce and eight other departments released the “Opinions on Further Stimulating the Vitality of Lower-Tier Markets and Boosting County-Level Consumption,” which proposed accelerating the renewal of existing commercial facilities. It supports the upgrading and renovation of traditional department stores and aging shopping malls, and promotes optimized layout for branded chain stores, discount retail stores, and fresh e-commerce storefronts, among others. It will deepen the renovation and upgrading of the “1,000 Markets and 10,000 Stores” initiative, support the construction and upgrading of township commercial and trade centers, (agricultural) trade markets, and distinctive township fairs, and carry out standardized and regulated construction and renovation of new-type convenience stores and village-level integrated postal and express logistics service stations. [National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): From January to July, value-added industrial output above designated size nationwide grew 5.3%, and the national economy maintained a development trend toward new drivers, higher quality, and improvement] According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): From January to July, under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, all regions and departments conscientiously implemented the decisions and arrangements of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, adhered to the general principle of pursuing progress while ensuring stability, effectively responded to various external shocks and internal difficulties, focused on implementing more proactive and effective macro policies, and solidly advanced high-quality development. Production and supply grew steadily, employment and prices were generally stable, resilience in foreign trade continued to stand out, new drivers of growth expanded and strengthened, and overall economic performance remained stable, sustaining a development trend of shifting momentum toward new drivers and optimizing the structure. From January to July, the value added of industrial enterprises above the designated size nationwide increased by 5.3% YoY. By three major sectors, value added increased by 2.5% YoY in mining, 5.6% in manufacturing, and 5.4% in the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water. Value added increased by 9.7% YoY in the equipment manufacturing industry and 13.8% in high-tech manufacturing, respectively 4.4 and 8.5 percentage points faster than overall industrial enterprises above the designated size. [National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and National Energy Administration Issue the 15th Five-Year Plan for Oil and Natural Gas Development] The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the National Energy Administration issued the 15th Five-Year Plan for Oil and Natural Gas Development. It proposed that by 2030, China’s oil and gas supply will reach 440 million mt of oil equivalent; newly added long-distance oil and gas pipelines will total 20,000 km; the nationwide long-distance oil and gas pipeline network will reach 220,000 km; natural gas storage capacity will continue to increase, accounting for more than 13% of national consumption; LNG receiving terminals will have a throughput capacity of 200 million mt/year; the capacity for imported natural gas via onshore pipelines will reach 114 billion m³/year; and annual CO₂ injection under carbon capture and storage/carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCS/CCUS) will reach 10 million mt. [NDRC Deploys Efforts to Accelerate the Deployment of New-Type Policy-Based Financial Instruments in 2026 and Increase Support for Private Investment Projects] On August 14, Comrade Yue Xiuhu, a member of the Party Leadership Group and Vice Chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), chaired a working meeting to deploy efforts to accelerate the deployment of new-type policy-based financial instruments in 2026 and increase support for private investment projects. Officials in charge from some provincial development and reform commissions, as well as officials in charge from China Development Bank, the Export-Import Bank of China, and the Agricultural Development Bank of China, and officials in charge from relevant departments and bureaus of the NDRC attended the meeting. Next, the NDRC will earnestly implement the decisions and arrangements of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, actively work with relevant parties, and further accelerate all related work on the new-type policy-based financial instruments for 2026. (NDRC) [Li Bin of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange: Since July, China’s Foreign Exchange Market Has Remained Stable] In response to reporters’ questions on foreign exchange market conditions in July 2026, Li Bin, Deputy Administrator of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said that since July, the external environment has been complex and volatile, geopolitical uncertainty has risen, and international financial markets have continued to fluctuate. China’s foreign exchange market has remained stable, the scale of cross-border receipts and payments has expanded steadily, market expectations have been generally stable, and foreign exchange transactions have been rational and orderly. In terms of the scale of cross-border transactions, in July, total cross-border receipts and payments of non-bank sectors such as enterprises and individuals amounted to $1.7 trillion, up 20% YoY; foreign exchange market trading volume was $4.3 trillion, up 8% YoY, both remaining at relatively high levels. From the perspective of cross-border capital flows, in July, net cross-border capital inflows of $59.8 billion were recorded for non-bank sectors such as enterprises and individuals. Among these, net capital inflows under trade in goods remained high, while net capital outflows under trade in services and items such as dividend and interest payments by foreign-invested enterprises remained stable. From the perspective of foreign exchange market supply and demand, in July, banks posted a surplus of $18.3 billion in foreign exchange settlement and sales, with enterprises conducting settlement and sales transactions rationally based on actual needs and changes in market conditions; foreign exchange market supply and demand were basically balanced. (State Administration of Foreign Exchange) US Dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index extended the declines of the previous two trading days, falling a further 0.06% to 99.58. On Monday local time, US Treasury yields broadly moved higher. The 30-year Treasury yield, which is typically more sensitive to geopolitical events, rose by more than 4 basis points to 5.311%, the highest level since June 2007. The 10-year Treasury yield—the key benchmark rate for mortgages, auto loans, and credit card debt—rose by more than 2 basis points to 4.724%. The 2-year Treasury yield, which usually fluctuates in line with US Fed short-term rate decisions, rose by more than 1 basis point on Monday to 4.182%. Oil prices climbed as the 60-day deadline for the US-Iran peace agreement was set to expire on Monday, and Iran had ruled out the possibility of an extension. Investors were awaiting the release of the US Fed meeting minutes later this week to gain further insight into the US Fed’s latest monetary policy decision and the future path of interest rates. At its July 29 meeting, the US Fed voted 9–3 to keep rates unchanged in the 3.50% to 3.75% range. The three dissenting committee members—Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan—called for a 25-basis-point rate hike. According to CME “FedWatch”: the probability that the US Fed will keep rates unchanged through September was 65%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike was 35%. The probability that the US Fed will keep rates unchanged through October was 51.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike was 41.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike was 7.4%. Citadel Securities said that after inflation had remained above target for an extended period, the US Fed’s continued reluctance to tighten monetary policy had kept long-term bond yields at multi-year highs and posed broader risks to the overall market. Noshad Shah, head of EMEA fixed income sales at Citadel Securities, said that although the policy rate was already 175 basis points below its peak, long-term US Treasury yields were still at their highest levels in nearly 20 years. Shah said: “In my view, this reflects the market’s belief that whether it is the US Fed or the fiscal authorities, when policymakers face difficult choices, they often tend to choose the easier path.”“As long as this situation persists, it will continue to pose risks to the broader market.” On Monday, the US 30-year Treasury yield climbed to a 19-year high, breaking above 5.28%. Data released last week showed that both inflation and consumer demand had slowed down, prompting the bond market to scale back expectations for a US Fed interest rate cut in September. Shah warned that the recent improvement in inflation and a weakening labor market should not be interpreted as meaning interest-rate risks have been eliminated. He noted that more than 55% of core goods prices were still rising. As a result, he believed the US Fed’s policy meeting next month would be a “dead heat.” Goldman Sachs said that, with US inflation cooling, market expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes remained overly aggressive. Goldman’s chief economist Jan Hatzius wrote in a report that, due to weak retail sales, disappointing employment data, and continued slowing in inflation, the likelihood of a US Fed rate hike at the September meeting was “very low” . Hatzius wrote: “Based on our baseline economic forecast, over time the probability that inflation data improve further is higher than the probability that they deteriorate again. We still believe the market’s pricing of the federal funds rate is too hawkish.” Data showed that the market had pushed back expectations for the next 25-basis-point US Fed rate hike to January next year, whereas a week earlier the market had fully expected the US Fed to hike in December. Goldman Sachs believed that, although market pricing was no longer as hawkish, there was still room for expectations for interest rate hikes to fade further. (Jinshi Data) On the macro front: Data due to be released today included the UK three-month ILO unemployment rate for June, the UK unemployment rate for July, the UK claimant count for July, Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for August, the eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for August, the weekly change in US ADP employment for the week ending August 1, US annualized housing starts for July, total US building permits for July, the US import price index month-on-month for July, US industrial output month-on-month for July, and the US pending home sales index month-on-month for July. In addition, watch for: Xiaomi Group’s earnings conference call; Baidu’s earnings conference call. On crude oil: Overnight, both crude oil futures extended the previous session’s gains and continued to rise, with WTI up 3.09% and Brent up 2.91%. The US-Iran memorandum of understanding signed in June this year technically expired on Monday. With the expiration of the US-Iran ceasefire escalating tensions, oil prices strengthened. According to CCTV News, on August 17 local time, US President Trump made it clear that he was not seeking to extend the memorandum of understanding with Iran, and said there was "no timetable" for resolving the Iran issue, adding that he "was not in a hurry". Iran issued a tough response in tandem. US Energy Secretary Wright said the US would “fight a long war” against Iran, and Treasury Secretary Bessent hinted that new economic sanctions are expected to be introduced soon. Russia, meanwhile, has faced fuel shortages after Ukraine’s sustained strikes on refineries, and two regions have implemented gasoline rationing. Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, Chief Analyst at Global Risk Management, said that more oil being shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, combined with the US shift toward economic sanctions, is depressing the geopolitical premium and capping upside room for oil prices; however, the economic pressure strategy means the strait could be closed for months. (Wallstreetcn) Saudi Arabia is providing oil supplies loaded near the coast of Oman, indicating the country may be following the UAE’s lead by transshipping more crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz. According to people familiar with the matter, Saudi Aramco is supplying crude cargoes loaded at locations such as Sohar in the Gulf of Oman via ship-to-ship transfers. The cargoes involved are Arab Medium and Arab Heavy crude, suggesting the crude is highly likely to originate from the Persian Gulf. Saudi Aramco CEO Nasser said in March that the Yanbu pipeline mainly carries Arab Light and Arab Extra Light crude. He said at the time that the country’s offshore oil fields are primarily located in the Persian Gulf, forming the country’s supply of medium and heavy oil. Saudi Aramco declined to comment on the above information. (Jinshi Data APP)

The New South Wales government has granted MACH Energy’s Mount Pleasant coal mine a six-year operating extension through the end of 2032. The mine’s existing approval was due to expire in December. The new approval also raises its annual extraction limit from 10.5 million tonnes to 12.5 million tonnes, an increase of 2 million tonnes or approximately 19.0%. Furthermore, MACH Energy’s separate proposal to operate through 2048 and extract an additional 247 million tonnes remains before the High Court of Australia .