SMM April 24: Most cobalt-related product prices remained stable this week, with only refined cobalt and cobalt sulphate prices continuing their gradual decline, edging down to varying degrees. However, on the raw material side, cobalt intermediate products continued to maintain a strong position, as suppliers' strong willingness to hold prices firm, combined with miners participating in market procurement, intensified the tight supply of spot cobalt intermediate products... SMM compiled the cobalt market price changes this week, as follows: : According to SMM spot quotes, spot refined cobalt prices edged down this week. After a decline of 2,000 yuan/mt on April 23, spot refined cobalt prices remained at 408,000-418,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 413,000 yuan/mt. According to SMM, futures fluctuations for refined cobalt narrowed this week, and the market operated steadily overall. From a supply-demand perspective, on the supply side, the firm pricing sentiment persisted, with mainstream smelters maintaining ex-factory prices, and traders keeping the spot-futures price spread at parity to a premium of 10,000 yuan/mt, with only a few traders offering discounts to accelerate capital recovery. On the demand side, the weak pattern continued, as downstream alloy and magnetic material enterprises saw no recovery in orders, maintaining cautious procurement strategies focused on small-batch, high-frequency purchasing as needed, strictly controlling inventory risks. After refined cobalt prices stabilized at low levels, some downstream enterprises shifted to more optimistic expectations for the market outlook, with restocking willingness slightly rebounding. In the short term, weak demand continues to weigh on prices, while high raw material costs and the reverse dissolution price spread provide solid bottom support. Prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend. As downstream demand gradually recovers going forward, refined cobalt prices still have upside room. Cobalt salt ( and ): : According to SMM spot quotes, spot cobalt sulphate prices maintained a fluctuating downward trend this week. As of April 24, spot cobalt sulphate prices fell to 93,700-96,400 yuan/mt, with an average price of 95,050 yuan/mt, down 300 yuan/mt from 95,350 yuan/mt on April 17, a decline of 0.32%. From a supply-demand perspective, according to SMM, on the supply side, mainstream cobalt sulphate smelters maintained quotes at 94,000-97,000 yuan/mt, supported by production costs. Some recycling enterprises and traders, under capital turnover pressure, offered concessions on shipments, lowering quotes to 92,000-93,000 yuan/mt, while some older cobalt sulphate inventory was transacted at around 90,000 yuan/mt. Demand side, downstream enterprises saw sluggish demand, compounded by sufficient inventory levels, leading to weak overall restocking willingness, with only small volumes of low-priced resources purchased as needed. In the short term, affected by a small amount of low-priced supply from upstream and weak downstream demand, cobalt sulphate prices are likely to remain in the doldrums, with prices expected to see a corrective rebound once purchasing demand recovers. : According to SMM spot quotes, spot cobalt chloride quotes remained stable this week. As of April 24, spot cobalt chloride held steady at 114,500-116,200 yuan/mt, with an average price of 115,350 yuan/mt. According to SMM, the cobalt chloride market continued to see a tug-of-war between bulls and bears this week, with the stalemate showing no signs of a breakthrough. In terms of supply, top-tier enterprises maintained firm quotes, with mainstream prices hovering around 116,000 yuan/mt and relatively solid support at the bottom; small and medium-sized producers, under pressure to recover funds, flexibly lowered shipment prices to 114,000-115,000 yuan/mt, but actual transaction volumes remained limited. Demand side, downstream participants remained predominantly cautious and on the sidelines. Although market inquiries were relatively active, substantive transaction increments were insufficient. Dragged down by weak end-use demand, Co3O4 enterprises maintained a conservative purchasing strategy for raw material cobalt chloride, with only occasional sporadic small orders for restocking. Overall, the cobalt chloride market still lacked clear momentum to drive a price breakthrough. : According to SMM spot quotes, spot Co3O4 quotes ran steadily this week. As of April 24, spot Co3O4 quotes held at 360,000-367,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 363,500 yuan/mt. According to SMM, the overall trading activity in the spot Co3O4 market was low this week. Top-tier enterprises slightly lowered their quotes, but the periodically tight supply of cobalt intermediate products provided effective cost support for prices. Downstream LCO material enterprises continued to purchase as needed, mostly restocking in small volumes based on orders on hand, with market inquiry activity remaining at a moderate level. Looking ahead, end-use demand performance remains the key variable determining the purchasing intensity of cathode materials. Against the backdrop of overall weak demand, the Co3O4 market is expected to remain focused on holding prices stable and staying on the sidelines in the short term, with all parties operating cautiously. Regarding raw material cobalt intermediate products, according to SMM spot quotes, cobalt intermediate product prices held up well this week. As of April 24, spot cobalt intermediate products (CIF China) were quoted at $26-26.25/lb, with an average price of $26.125/lb. From a supply-demand perspective, according to SMM, suppliers on the supply side showed strong willingness to hold prices firm this week. Coupled with miners participating in market purchasing, spot tightness intensified, with some enterprises maintaining quotes above $26.0/lb. Demand side, downstream purchase willingness recovered slightly, but constrained by cobalt salt prices struggling to catch up, enterprises mostly adopted a wait-and-see approach with inquiries, with only small-volume transactions concluded in the $25.8–$25.9/lb range. It was learned that cobalt intermediate product cargoes from the DRC remained stranded at South African ports and in transit by land, 4 with only a few miners completing small-volume vessel bookings in April, expected to 5~6 arrive at port in May–June; affected by tight shipping conditions in Africa, the remaining cargoes are not expected to arrive in China in bulk until 7 July. Going forward, as downstream orders materialize and restocking demand is released, cobalt intermediate product prices still have upward momentum. On the news front, at the SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (SMM) -hosted , SMM cobalt industry analyst Xiao Wenhao provided an outlook on the future development of the Chinese and global cobalt markets following the DRC cobalt export ban. On the domestic front, he noted that under the impact of the DRC policy, the Chinese cobalt market continued destocking, and cobalt product prices surged upward. Taking cobalt intermediate products as an example, as of March 2026, the spot price of cobalt intermediate products (CIF China) had risen to $25.85/lb, representing a 349.57% increase compared to $5.75/lb on February 25, 2025. According to SMM, since May 2025, the cobalt market began shifting into a tight supply situation, which is expected to see slight relief by June 2026. In addition, he also analyzed the supply-demand balance of the Chinese and global cobalt markets under two scenarios respectively: a pessimistic scenario — the DRC exports only the base quota of 87,000 mt + 70% exported to China, and a neutral scenario — the DRC maintains a long-term cobalt intermediate product export quota of 96,600 mt + 80% exported to China. Under the former assumption, according to SMM estimates, from 2025 to 2028, China's cobalt resources will exhibit a tight supply situation, with the Chinese market continuously facing raw material shortages. It is not until 2029–2030 that China's cobalt resource shortage is expected to ease, shifting to a tight balance. The DRC, on the other hand, shifted from a previous tight supply-demand balance to a significant oversupply in 2025, and the oversupply of its cobalt resources is expected to continue expanding in the coming years. Under the neutral scenario assumption, SMM expects that China's cobalt resources will exhibit a tight supply-demand balance in 2026, gradually shifting to a slight oversupply after 2027, though the surplus will be relatively small. The DRC's cobalt resources reached a supply-demand inflection point in 2025, and from 2025 onward are expected to exhibit a significant oversupply.

On April 13, an SMM team, comprised of Jianhua Ye, Industry Research Director, Chundi Feng, Expert at Industry Research Institute, and Jenny Wu, Copper & Tin Overseas Marketing Manager, paid a visit to the Zambia Chamber of Mines (ZCM).

On April 14, an SMM team, comprised of Jianhua Ye, Industry Research Director, Chundi Feng, Expert at Industry Research Institute, and Jenny Wu, Copper & Tin Overseas Marketing Manager, paid a visit to NFC Africa Mining PLC. The delegation was warmly welcomed by Jingjun Wang, Chairman of NFC Africa Mining PLC and President of the Chinese Mining Enterprises Association in Zambia (CMEAZ).

On April 23 (Thursday), the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) stated that, due to slowing demand growth and increased secondary copper production, the global copper cathode market is expected to shift to an oversupply of approximately 96,000 mt in 2026, reversing a previously forecast supply deficit of 150,000 mt. The organization also forecast that the copper cathode surplus will widen to 377,000 mt in 2027, but warned that geopolitical risks including wars in the Middle East and shifts in trade flows could impact the market's supply-demand balance. ICSG expects global copper cathode consumption to grow 1.6% in 2026, down from the previous estimate of 2.1%, with consumption growth forecast at 2% in 2027. China's copper demand is expected to grow 1.9% in 2026, while demand growth in other regions is projected at 1.3%. ICSG added that copper consumption in the EU and Japan will remain subdued, while Asia will continue to be the primary driver of global demand growth. In terms of supply, global copper cathode production is expected to increase only 0.4% in 2026, mainly constrained by limited copper concentrates supply, though increased secondary copper production will partially offset this constraint; with higher copper concentrates production and new capacity coming online, copper cathode production growth is expected to accelerate to 3% in 2027. ICSG stated that global copper mine production is expected to grow 1.6% in 2026, down from the previous forecast of 2.3%, due to slower production growth in the DRC, Chile, and Indonesia, as well as operational constraints at the Grasberg and Kamoa mines following issues encountered in 2025. The organization expects global copper mine production to grow 2.3% in 2027, supported by the gradual ramp-up of new capacity, improved production in Chile and Zambia, and higher mine utilization rates in Indonesia and the DRC. (Webstock Inc.)

SMM April 24 News: Metals market: Overnight, base metals generally fell across both domestic and overseas markets. LME nickel and SHFE nickel both rose over 1%, with LME nickel up 1.68% and SHFE nickel up 1.65%. SHFE copper rose 0.04%, and SHFE tin rose 0.11%. The remaining metals all declined. LME copper and LME tin both fell over 1%, with LME copper down 1.19% and LME tin down 1.35%. The rest of the metals fell less than 1%. The alumina front-month contract fell 0.25%, and the foundry aluminum front-month contract fell 0.04%. Overnight, ferrous metals generally rose. Stainless steel rose 1.14%, and iron ore rose 0.25%. Hot-rolled coil and rebar saw slight fluctuations. Coking coal and coke side, both coking coal and coke fell 0.51%. Overnight, precious metals side, COMEX gold fell 0.93%, and COMEX silver fell 3.21%. In China, SHFE gold fell 0.2%, and SHFE silver fell 1.58%. Overnight closing prices as of 6:42 AM on April 24: Macro Front China: [General Offices of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council: The NDRC, NBS, and National Energy Administration shall establish a dynamic monitoring and early warning system for key data] The General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued the "Comprehensive Evaluation and Assessment Measures for Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality." The measures stipulate that the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), and the National Energy Administration shall establish a dynamic monitoring and early warning system for key data, regularly monitoring indicators such as carbon emissions, coal consumption, oil consumption, new electricity consumption, and new clean energy power consumption at the national level and across provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government), and issue reminders and warnings to relevant provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) as appropriate. (Xinhua News Agency) (Jin10 Data APP) [National Energy Administration: As of end-March, China's cumulative installed power generation capacity reached 3.96 billion kW, up 15.5% YoY] The National Energy Administration released national electricity statistics for January-March. As of end-March, China's cumulative installed power generation capacity reached 3.96 billion kW, up 15.5% YoY. Among them, solar power installed capacity was 1.24 billion kW, up 31.3% YoY; wind power installed capacity was 660 million kW, up 22.4% YoY. From January to March, the cumulative average utilization hours of national power generation equipment were 703 hours, down 66 hours from the same period last year. (Jin10 Data APP) [Guangzhou Futures Exchange issued a notice on adjusting the trading fee standards for platinum and palladium futures-related contracts.] After deliberation, effective from the trading session on April 27, 2026, the trading fee standards for platinum futures PT2606 and palladium futures PD2606 contracts will be adjusted to 0.01% of the transaction value, and the intraday close-today trading fee standards will be adjusted to 0.01% of the transaction value. US dollar: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index rose 0.22% to 98.83. Mitsubishi UFJ: Uncertainty over US trade policy persists. The Trump administration appears to favor a weaker US dollar. Concerns over US Fed independence remain given Warsh's nomination as Fed Chairman. (Jin10 Data APP) At the Senate hearing held this week, Warsh's performance was largely in line with expectations: he reaffirmed the importance of US Fed independence and elaborated on his views regarding US Fed reform, balance sheet reduction, and long-term economic trends. Although Trump has been publicly calling for interest rate cuts, Warsh made it clear that Trump had not asked him to make any commitments on cutting interest rates. However, the real highlight of the hearing was Warsh's in-depth discussion on "how to measure inflation." This is likely to become the new framework for defining price trends once Warsh takes the helm of the US Fed. (Jin10 Data) According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April was 1%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 99%. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut by June was 2.6%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 96.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike was 1%. (Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: Data to be released today include the US April University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final reading, the US April one-year inflation rate expectations final reading, the UK April GfK Consumer Confidence Index, the UK March seasonally adjusted retail sales MoM, the German April IFO Business Climate Index, Japan's March core CPI YoY, and Canada's February retail sales MoM. Crude oil: As of the overnight close, oil prices in both markets rose together. WTI crude rose 4.35% and Brent crude rose 4.02%, marking a four-session winning streak, driven by renewed escalation in the Middle East situation and heightened tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. The Trump administration plans to extend a shipping waiver allowing foreign tankers to transport oil and gasoline within the US to address supply disruptions and price increases triggered by the Iran conflict. According to sources, the decision to continue exempting energy shipments from the Jones Act could be announced as early as local time Friday. The current waiver is set to expire on May 17. This move could provide some relief for US refiners that are beginning to book waterborne cargo for July. It remains unclear how long the extension will last or what range of commodities it will cover. A White House official said the extension was under consideration but provided no further details. (Jin10 Data APP) Analysts at ING said that due to slow progress in negotiations between the US and Iran, the market had to readjust expectations, as this raised concerns about the impact of prolonged supply disruptions on products. As regional mediators raced against time to get the diplomatic process back on track, and ship attacks in the Strait of Hormuz escalated tensions, Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, briefly rebounded above $100 per barrel. However, these analysts noted: "If negotiations make no progress, the market will become increasingly numb to the various rumors and headlines that have been dominating oil price movements recently." (Jin10 Data APP)

Refined Cobalt: Refined cobalt spot prices continued their weak downward drift this week. Futures fluctuations narrowed, and the market operated steadily overall. Supply side, the firm-pricing sentiment persisted, with mainstream smelters holding ex-factory quotes stable. Traders maintained spot-futures price spreads at parity to a 10,000 yuan/mt premium, with only a few traders offering discounts to accelerate capital recovery. Demand side, the weak pattern continued, as downstream alloy and magnetic material enterprises saw no recovery in orders, maintaining cautious procurement strategies focused on small-batch, high-frequency purchasing as needed to strictly control inventory risks. After prices stabilized at low levels, some downstream enterprises turned more optimistic about the market outlook, with restocking willingness slightly rebounding. In the short term, weak demand continued to suppress prices, while high raw material costs and the reverse dissolution price spread provided solid bottom support. Prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend. As downstream demand gradually recovers, refined cobalt prices still have upside room. Cobalt Intermediate Products: Cobalt intermediate product prices continued to hold up well this week. Supply side, suppliers had strong willingness to hold prices firm, and miners' participation in market procurement exacerbated spot cargo tightness, with some enterprises maintaining quotes above $26.0/lb. Demand side, downstream purchase willingness recovered slightly, but constrained by cobalt salt prices struggling to catch up, enterprises mostly inquired and waited, with only small-batch transactions in the $25.8-25.9/lb range. It was learned that DRC cobalt intermediate product cargoes remained stranded at South African ports and in transit by land. In April, only a few miners completed small-batch vessel bookings, with arrivals expected in May-June. Affected by tight African shipping, the remaining cargoes are not expected to arrive in China in bulk until July. As downstream orders materialize and restocking demand is released, cobalt intermediate product prices still have upward momentum. Cobalt Sulphate: Cobalt sulphate market prices continued their downward drift this week. Supply side, mainstream smelters, supported by production costs, maintained quotes at 94,000-97,000 yuan/mt. Some recycling enterprises and traders, under capital turnover pressure, offered concessions on shipments, lowering quotes to 92,000-93,000 yuan/mt. Additionally, some older cobalt sulphate inventory was transacted at around 90,000 yuan/mt. Demand side, downstream enterprise demand remained sluggish, compounded by sufficient inventory levels, with overall restocking willingness remaining weak and only small volumes of low-priced resources purchased as needed. In the short term, impacted by a small amount of low-priced upstream supply and weak downstream demand, cobalt sulphate prices may continue to be in the doldrums. Once procurement demand recovers, prices are expected to see a corrective rebound.