[SMM Copper Wire and Cable Operating Rate] The operating rate of SMM copper wire and cable enterprises was 70.77% this week, up 0.24 percentage points MoM. Overall operating performance was stable, while market performance was relatively mediocre. During the week, the pullback in copper prices suppressed the release of new orders, but enterprises had ample orders on hand and pending delivery, supporting basically stable production. New orders across downstream segments were generally weak, with demand in the home decoration sector particularly mediocre due to rising plastic raw material prices.

[SMM Copper Flash News] Inventory at wire and cable enterprises this week: earlier pullbacks in copper prices drove concentrated restocking by enterprises, and raw material inventory mainly went toward consuming stockpiled materials this week, so raw material inventory fell 2.7% MoM. As for finished product inventories, the pullback in copper prices restrained downstream cargo pick-up, so finished product inventories edged down 2.65% MoM.

[SMM Copper Inventory] Looking ahead to next week, continued fluctuations in copper prices are expected to keep disturbing end-user procurement sentiment, while rising plastic prices will bring cost pressure. However, existing orders will continue to support enterprises’ baseline production schedules, leaving limited downside room for operating rates. SMM expects the operating rate of copper wire and cable to fall 1.54 percentage points MoM to 69.23% next week, down 5.99 percentage points YoY.

This week, the macro market still repeatedly traded around the Middle East situation and expectations for the US Fed. At the beginning of the week, tensions among the US, Israel, and Iran eased slightly, the US dollar pulled back, and risk appetite recovered temporarily, allowing copper prices to stop falling and rebound at one point. However, Iran later denied progress in the relevant negotiations, geopolitical tensions tightened again, international oil prices rose sharply, and market concerns over supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz resurfaced, with safe-haven sentiment rebounding accordingly and weighing on copper prices. Market bets on major central banks cutting interest rates this year were pushed back significantly, and expectations for macro liquidity weakened at the margin. Overall, this week’s copper price logic still centered on the repeated tug-of-war among geopolitical risks, oil prices, the US dollar, and interest rate cut expectations. Before macro uncertainty eases materially, copper prices will likely remain in the doldrums with rangebound fluctuations in the short term. Fundamentally, the logic of ore supply tightness continued. On March 25, Mitsubishi Materials announced that it will cease part of the copper concentrates processing business at the Onahama smelter in 2027, and explicitly mentioned the sharp deterioration in TC/RCs and pressure on smelting profits, further confirming the current reality of tight copper concentrates supply and continued damage to profitability on the smelting side. Global exchange copper inventories remained high, but demand in China had already started, and the pace of destocking in China’s social inventory exceeded market expectations. Supported by the opening of the import window and domestic demand, inventories outside China showed signs of flowing back into China. Looking ahead to next week, the macro theme is expected to remain largely unchanged. If the Middle East situation does not ease substantially, elevated oil prices and a relatively strong US dollar will likely continue to weigh on copper prices, and short-term resistance will remain; however, ore supply tightness, worsening smelting profits, and domestic demand will still provide some support for copper prices. Therefore, copper prices are expected to continue to fluctuate rangebound within a narrow range next week, with LME copper expected at $12,000-12,500/mt and SHFE copper expected at 93,000-96,500 yuan/mt. In the spot market, as imported cargoes arrive one after another, the pace of domestic inventory destocking may slow down. Although inventories are still being drawn down, spot premiums are expected to find it difficult to rise sharply due to the relatively high inventory base. Spot prices against the SHFE copper front-month contract are expected at a discount of 120 yuan/mt to a discount of 20 yuan/mt.

Today, the most-traded BC copper 2604 contract opened at 84,590 yuan/mt. After the daytime session opened, it touched a low of 83,920 yuan/mt. Following the opening, the center kept rising, and during the afternoon session it touched a high of 85,490 yuan/mt, before finally closing at 84,840 yuan/mt, up 0.7%. Open interest stood at 1,868 lots, down 468 lots from the previous trading day, while trading volume reached 1,952 lots, down 2,118 lots from the previous trading day. On the macro front, US President Trump again extended by 10 days the deadline he had set for not attacking Iran’s energy facilities, saying that talks with Iran were “going very smoothly,” which eased market concerns over a prolonged conflict. Fundamentally, imported cargoes continued to arrive, while arrivals of domestic cargoes remained stable, leaving overall supply ample. Demand side, affected by the pullback in copper prices, downstream buyers mainly maintained just-in-time procurement. The SHFE copper 2604 contract closed at 95,950 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2604 contract price of 84,840 yuan/mt, its tax-inclusive price was 95,869 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2604 contract and BC copper was 81 yuan/mt, and the spread remained in contango structure, narrowing somewhat from the previous day.

This week (March 20–26), the operating rate of SMM copper wire and cable enterprises was 70.77, up 0.24 percentage points MoM and down 2.09 percentage points YoY. Overall operating performance was stable, while market performance was relatively mediocre. During the week, the pullback in copper prices suppressed the release of new orders, but ample orders on hand and pending delivery orders supported basically stable production. By segment, new orders across downstream sectors were generally weak, with demand in the home decoration segment particularly mediocre due to rising plastic raw material prices. Industry production still mainly relied on orders on hand from the power and new energy sectors. Inventory side, the earlier pullback in copper prices drove concentrated restocking by enterprises, and raw material inventory fell 2.7% MoM this week as raw materials were mainly consumed from prior stockpiling. As for finished product inventories, the pullback in copper prices restrained downstream cargo pick-up, and finished product inventories therefore edged down 2.65% MoM. Looking ahead to next week, continued fluctuations in copper prices are expected to keep disturbing end-user procurement sentiment, while rising plastic prices will bring cost pressure. However, existing orders will continue to support enterprises’ baseline production schedules, leaving limited downside room for the operating rate. SMM expects the operating rate of copper wire and cable enterprises next week (March 27–April 2) to fall 1.54 percentage points MoM to 69.23, down 5.99 percentage points YoY.